Note: ^{a} and ^{b} denote significance at the 1% and 5% levels, respectively. The critical values for the Wald tests (distributed as a χ^{2} with one degree of freedom) are 6.63 and 3.84 (at the 1% and 5% levels).

Table 2. Actual and balance of payments-constrained growth rates, 1850-1913 and 1940-2000

1850-1913

1.52

2.00

1.38

1850-1891

1.47

1.83

0.94

1892-1913

1.28

2.29

0.72

1940-2000

4.17

2.99

3.65

1951-2000

4.61

3.30

7.43

1951-1974

6.23

4.45

6.13

1975-2000

3.02

2.25

3.78

1940-1959

3.00

2.73

1.68

1960-2000

4.71

2.97

5.72

1960-1974

7.49

4.23

5.67

1986-2000

3.39

2.19

4.13

Source: col. (1), Prados de la Escosura (2003); col. (2), Carreras and Tafunell (2004, 2005); col. (3), own calculations. See the text.

Table 3. Actual and balance of payments-constrained growth rates, 1870-1913 and 1940-2000. Alternative data for foreign output

Western Europe’s GDP

Weighted average of 6 trading partners’ GDP

1870-1913

1.79

2.09

2.06

1.79

1.47

1.99

1870-1891

1.99

1.75

2.02

1.99

1.23

2.21

1892-1913

1.28

2.41

0.74

1.28

1.69

0.75

1940-2000

4.17

2.76

3.50

4.17

2.04

2.95

1951-2000

4.61

3.18

7.45

4.61

2.83

7.45

1951-1974

6.23

4.30

6.11

6.23

3.82

6.21

1975-2000

3.02

2.20

3.80

3.02

1.96

3.73

1940-1959

3.00

2.30

1.36

3.00

0.97

0.34

1960-2000

4.71

2.82

5.75

4.71

2.39

5.49

1960-1974

7.49

3.97

5.64

7.49

3.19

5.23

1986-2000

3.39

2.12

4.15

3.39

1.43

3.96

Source: col. (1) and (4), Prados de la Escosura (2003); col. (2) and (5), Maddison (2010); col. (3) and (6), own calculations. See the text.

Table 4. Ng-Perron tests for unit roots

1850-1913

exp_{t}

imp_{t}

cab_{t}

−0.34

−3.46

−8.47^{b}

−0.19

−1.13

−2.00^{b}

1940-2000

exp_{t}

imp_{t}

cab_{t}

3.36

3.78

−159.8^{a}

2.93

2.80

−8.90^{a}

Note: ^{a} and ^{b} denote significance at the 1% and 5% levels, respectively. The critical values (taken from Ng and Perron, 2001) are −13.8 and −8.1 (at the 1% and 5% levels) for; and −2.58 and −1.98 (at the 1% and 5% levels) for.

Source: Own calculations; see the text.
Table 5. Estimation of a long-run relationship between exports and imports of goods and services

1850-1913

1940-2000

α
β
trend

4.38^{a}

(8.96)

0.44^{a}

(7.15)

0.12^{a}

(46.43)

−5.08^{a}

(9.59)

1.52^{a}

(69.95)

−

1.39

(0.54)

0.83^{a}

(33.51)

0.04

(0.42)

0.12

(0.05)

0.94^{a}

(648.4)

−

R^{2}

W: β=1

0.87

−4.36^{a}

11.43^{a}

0.65

−4.20^{a}

8.28^{a}

0.96

−3.89^{b}

1.33

0.95

−3.97^{a}

2.99

Note: ^{a} and ^{b} denote significance at the 1% and 5% levels, respectively. The critical values for the Wald tests (distributed as a χ^{2} with one degree of freedom) are 6.63 and 3.84 (at the 1% and 5% levels). The critical values for (taken from Phillips and Ouliaris, 1990) are −4.30 and −3.74 (at the 1% and 5% levels) for col. 1 and 3; and −3.84 and −3.27 (at the 1% and 5% levels) for col. 2 and 4.

Source: Own calculations; see the text.

1^{}In a recent paper, Prados de la Escosura, Rosés and Sanz-Villarroya (2011) stress the continuity between the policy stance in the 1950s and 1960s, so that the gradual liberalization operated during the 1950s would appear as a precondition for the implementation of the Stabilization Plan in 1959.

2^{}In order to save space, we do not show the estimated elasticities from which the balance-of-payments constrained growth rates in Table 3 have been computed. These estimates are available from the author upon request.

3^{} The correlation coefficients with respect to the series of the EU’s GDP of Carreras and Tafunell are 99.9% for the GDP of 12 Western European countries, in both periods; and 98.5% and 99.4% for the weighted average of the six trading partners’ GDP, in the periods 1870-1913 and 1940-2000, respectively.

4^{} The concepts of stochastic and deterministic cointegration were introduced by Ogaki and Park (1997).

5^{} Notice, on the other hand, that the estimate of β in column two, 1.52, is implausibly high because a β greater than one would not be consistent with a current account deficit, since exp_{t} would be growing at a faster rate than imp_{t}.

6^{} The role of current account imbalances within a monetary union is discussed at length in Catte (1998); see also L’Hotellerie-Fallois and Peñalosa (2006) for a particular discussion of the Spanish case within EMU.