Wright 10/25 Robert is a senior editor at The Atlantic. “It's Official: Romney Has Zero Momentum,” 2012, http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/10/its-official-romney-has-zero-momentum/264141/
 Obama's numbers in swing states are running ahead of his numbers nationally. When the national polls were moving in Romney's direction, this gap may have been partly due to the fact that, because swing states polls were being done less often than national polls, swing state polls were lagging indicators. But when, as now, national polls are flat, and swing state polls are being conducted more and more often, that ceases to be a plausible explanation for the difference.¶  The polls, especially in swing states, may underpredict Obama's election day numbers. These polls count onlythe responses of "likely voters"--a subset of the "registered voters" the pollsters interview. Obama tends to do better with the latter than the former. And some people think that, because Obama's "ground game" is better than Romney's, more Obama voterswhom pollsters put in the "registered but not likely" category will wind up voting.¶These two factors explain why, though Romney is slightly ahead in national "likely voter" polls, Obama is a clear favorite in the betting markets. As I write this, Intrade gives him a 62 percent chance of winning.