Population Problems



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OCCUPATION GROUP

1891

1901

1911

1921

1031

1941

1951

All occupations

399,039

435,034

552,140

646,440

823,287

928,464

1,130,194

Agriculture

204,552 b

194,381

201,599

217,416

225,914

251,539

187,846

Fishing and trapping

4,265 c

4,317 d

4,431

4,005 e

6,418

8,081

5,538

Logging

4,206

3,551

11,278 f

10,838

15,557

30,457

35,935

Mining, quarrying

2,119

1,338

5,560 g

4,118

6,128

9,977

12,246

Manufacturing

52058

101,884

79,288

87,793

111,352

173,288

237,189

Construction

24,183

35,085

44,887

62,831

69,961

98,510

Transportation and communication

15,533

45,171

34,952

41,263

66,018

79,317

121,643

Trade and finance

23,788

51,131

63,176

78,388

81,684

106,274

Service

23,918

27,613

33,729

46,116

73,714

89,967

134,070

Professional

9,332

...........

14,165

20,388

29,466

36,280

51,500

Personal

9,307

13,202

15,806

16,753

35,021

41,534

56,410

Clerical

5,998 h

15,396 h

17,219

33,086 i

43,258

49,404

69,207

Labourers j

36,865

41,241

77,868

91,368

133,368

81,038

100,242

Not stated

1,564

242

...........

2,375

341

3,751

21,494

a 14 years and over in 1941 and 1950.

b Includes all farmers' sons, 14 years and over, whether or not reported with gainful occupation.

c Does not include nomadic Indians.

d Does not include Indians.

e Does not include Indians on Reserves.

f Includes pulp mill employees.

g Includes almost all mine and smelter employees, except clerical workers.

h Clerical workers in government service were included with service.

i Includes proof readers, shippers, weighmen, and postmen classified elsewhere in other years. The addition of these people to the 1931 figure would have added 18.0 p.c. to the number of males in this occupation group.

j Labourers in all industries except agriculture, fishing, logging and mining are included in this group.

NOTE : Occupations were rearranged as far as possible on the basis of the 1931 classification, though some adjustment of the 1931 grouping was necessary

[p. 79]

TABLE 4


NET OUT-MIGRANTS FROM FARMS
OF THE PROVINCE OF QUEBEC CALCULATED ON




Method 1

Method 2




000’s

1871-81

34

12

1881-91

55

55

1991-1901

57

70

1901-11

43

48

1911-21

54

40

1921-31

61

57

1931-41

33

34

1941-51

57

114




_____

____




394

430

error is probably in the direction of using death rates that are too low, and thus exaggerating the movement off the farms. Errors in mortality, however, even if substantial, can have only a small effect on the movers at the ages in which we are interested. For the ages 15 to 59, an error in the rates of 20 per cent leads to an error in net migrants of from 5 per cent to 10 per cent.

The two methods used are otherwise independent. Thus the assumption of an equal per cent of male population engaging in gainful activity in farm as in non-farm areas affects Estimate 2 only. The fact that, on the one hand, the 13 farm countries include contain a random sample of the entire farm population, affects Estimate 1 only.

The totals of out-migration for each decade can be expressed in two kinds of rates. Insofar as we are interested in how the migration affects the average farm, we seek the number of migrants per farm per decade. The simplest way of doing this is to relate [p. 80] the migrants of the 13 counties of, Estimate 1 to the number of farms in those counties. The number of farms in these counties as given will serve (Table 5) as the denominator for the ratio of migrants to farms. One-tenth of the ratio of out-migrants to farms (column 3 of Table 5) may be thought of as the annual average number of persons leaving per farm. Its reciprocal, which is shown in column (4), estimates the average interval in years between successive departures.

The sort of minor improvement which has here been disregarded is to use the number of farms at the middle rather than at the end of the intercensal period, for changes in number of farms are small in relation to other difficulties of the computation.

The age distribution of the movers is a by-product of this work which will be required for the second way of regarding the figures of movement from farms.

TABLE 5


NUMBER OF FARMS AND MIGRANTS
IN 13 QUEBEC COUNTIES 1871-1951




Farms

(1)

Out-migrants

15 – 59 years of age



(2)

Average number of years, elapsing between successive Out-migrants on each farm

(3)

(2) / (1)÷ 10



Average Number of Out-migrants

(4)

1/3


1871

28,629

–12,149

.042

24

1881

33,032

–17,135

.052

19

1891

39,554

–17,944

.045

22

1901

31,661

–14,241

.045

22

1911

38,913

–18,406

.047

21

1921

33,839

–19,875

.059

17

1931

33,154

–10,827

.033

30

1941

35,419

–19,390

.055

18

1951

30,972










Table 6 refers to the 13 counties which have been arbitrarily selected and for which absolute numbers do not have significance.

[p. 81] We see that 47 per cent of the out-of-county movers have been between 20 and 29 years of age over the period 1871-1951 and 78 per cent were between 15 and 34 years. There is a small return movement at ages beyond 60, not shown in the table. Substantial consistency was found in the age pattern for the several decades.

TABLE 6

MALE OUT-MIGRANTS BY AGE GROUP


FROM 13 COUNTIES OF QUEBEC, 1871-1951

Age

Per cent of Out-migrants

10-59

10-14 years

7.9

15-19 years

14.9

20-24 years

22.6

25-29 years

24.9

30-34 years

15.7

35-39 years

6.0

40-44 years

3.4

45-49 years

2.5

50-54 years

1.1

55-59 years

1.0

Total

100.0

Table 7 shows for the 13 counties the number of males enumerated at 15-19 years of age in successive censuses (column 1). One-fifth of this number gives the rate at which the new generation reaches working age each year, and so provides an estimate of the population from which the migrants come. There is no single age at which persons leave farms but since Table 5 has shown that the majority go between the ages of 15 and 34, Table 7 neglects later ages. The numbers of migrants shown for a decade are ten times the average annual number, and the fraction leaving annually can therefore be obtained by dividing one-tenth of the number of migrants by one-fifth of the number of males at ages 15-19 at the beginning of the decade. Since the migrants attain the ages [p. 82] specified through the course of the decade rather than at the beginning, there is a rough correspondence between the time reference of numerator and denominator. The resulting quotients expressed as percentages are shown in column 3 of Table 7.

TABLE 7


MALE MIGRANTS AND MEN COMING OF AGE
IN 13 COUNTIES OF ESTIMATE 1







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