Not including males in « not stated » classification.
ab Including inspectors, testers-chemicals and inspectors, gaugers-metal.
priest showed a rise about equal to the gain in the proportion of the labour force which is French. Though the proportion of engineers who were French did not increase, the percentage of draughts-men rose from 11 to 15. Going further from the old professions, we find that policemen, detectives, and postmasters increased appreciably in the proportion French, and in such services as janitors, waiters, and cooks the proportion French increased substantially.
In the clerical group taken as a whole, the proportion of French increased slightly less than it did among the gainfully occupied. Accountants and book-keepers however increased from 20 to 25 per cent French, shipping clerks from 15 to 20 per cent. Unfortunately, a class such as « accountants and book-keepers » lumps individuals of very different income and prestige, and through the possibility of different movements of French and English within it, we are prevented from drawing any very precise conclusion.
Although the statement is not entirely unambiguous, it appears that the description of a division of labour whereby the French Canadians were left behind in business and industry applied no less 10 years ago than it did 20 years ago. However, the 1930's were a time of regression and stand in sharp contrast to the 1940's. Table 9 indicates the relative and absolute decline of agriculture in every province during the 1940's. Quebec dropped from 27 to 17 per cent agriculture, reflecting an extraordinary alteration in the scheme of things, an unprecedented change to take place in a single decade. We therefore await with special interest the 1951 census results showing occupation by origin.
4. THE INFLUENCE OF CITIES
ON FARM FAMILY SIZE
Retour à la table des matières
The influence which the city exerts on the countryside is not easily measured, but some attempt to measure it seems a necessary complement to our discussion. We have already found from censuses the degree to which the cities of the Province of Quebec recruit new population from the countryside. Our last problem is to see if the census can tell us about the effect which industrialization and the increasing size of cities have on those who remain in the countryside. That the city has an effect on the minds and behaviour of those who have moved into it is beyond discussion :
PERCENTAGE OF GAINFULLY OCCUPIED MALES IN AGRICULTURE, FOR CANADA AND PROVINCES, 1941 AND 1951
what we seek here is its effect on those who remain on the farm.
This point could be attacked in many ways. The anthropologist, for example, might fruitfully examine changes through time in architectural taste, in clothing fashions, in forms of amusement. So far as we are concerned, the data which we must use are simply the number of children born to mothers, as reported in the 1941 census. The specific question that we put to the data is whether the families living near cities are smaller than those further away. If family size in the countryside increases with distance from cities, among families that are the same in income, education, etc., then we have a measure of the extent to which influence cities is pervading the countryside. Several methods of investigation, more or less independent, were used to determine this fact, and their agreement is sufficient for a reasonably firm conclusion.
While this topic is under study, it is convenient to examine a related question, namely whether the Canadian of French ancestry is influenced by neighbours who are English-speaking. It may be assumed that the French who live near the English have more [p. 90] likelihood of contact with them than those who live farther away, and that if any difference in behaviour between the « near » French and the « far » ones can be found, that difference will be a consequence of the difference in contact. The inference, once again, depends on ensuring that the « near » and « far » French are similar in respects other than distance from the English, and we shall try to ensure this as much as it is possible.
In the same way, people who live near cities may be expected to be relatively exposed to the social psychological influences of urban life : a farmer who lives within a few miles of a city visits it more often, has more friends and relatives who live in it, receives more visitors from it, enters more often into commercial contacts with city people, than a farmer who lives farther away. If this is not true in each individual case, it is certainly true on the average.
Perhaps the most notable instance of diffusion in history is the contemporary spread of ways, identified as « modern », which follow the industrial revolution into corners of the world where traditional ways have been dominant. Extensive data have been presented on one aspect of this many-sided diffusion, namely change in family size. Most writers of differential fertility, whether sociological or biological in their orientation, would recognize some affiliation of their subject to the industrial revolution.
Throughout western countries, it has been the better-off people, the urban, the educated, who have most quickly and completely taken on the small-family pattern. This route of acceptance recalls the movements of fashion whose travel, down prestige gradients, has been noted by Sapir 11.
French-Canadian families have always been large and they are still large. A rate of 63 births per thousand inhabitants was shown in the 1660's, and the level stayed not much below this until the middle of the 19th century 12. In the past 100 years, there has been some drop : the lowest point, 25 per thousand, was reached in the 1930's, while the post-war period has been consistently around 30. The trend of births is made somewhat obscure by reason of the extraordinary decline in the thirties and the recovery in the forties. The following table shows, however, [p. 91] that French and total birth rates have, to some extend, come together over the past 20 years.
BIRTH RATES FOR FRENCH AND OTHER ORIGINS
FOR CANADA, 1931-51
The decline from pioneer days has undoubtedly been associated with the growth of cities, and the moving into occupations where the family has a different significance from what it has on the farm. However, this city-country difference has already been treated by both English and French writers ; as for us, we want to take up the more specialized topic of the differences that are to be found within the farm population itself.
It seems safe to assume that a new trait has a definite course through a society. It starts among the people who are on the sensitive « margin » of the society, that is, those who are psychologically more receptive, and eventually spreads into the « interior ». Our hypothesis is that, for families with a given source of livelihood, the margin has a geographical location.
First, we have calculated a number of correlations of country averages, using published census tabulations. Three kinds of average for family size and two measures of distance were used ; correlations were in some cases calculated both on the original measures and on their transformation into ranks. The overall result was a partial correlation of about .50, that is, about .25 of the intercounty variance of family size was explained by distance from cities, when income, education, and age at marriage were held constant.
However, the research not only required a better control of extraneous variables than the census tabulations permit, but it required an answer controlling these, as far as possible, for individual families, not for counties. To secure this, a very small sample of 1,056 families was tabulated by hand. Because the families were selected at random, it is possible to draw inferences from the sample with known probability of error. Total children ever born to women aged 45-74, i.e. whose families were approximately complete, was the measure of fertility, and the sample was composed partly of families living near cities and partly of those living far from cities. The entire tabulation was confined to a homogeneous group : complete families in which both husband and wife were French, Catholic, born and now living on a farm, and the husband a farm operator. Within this group, dichotomous classifications were made for present age of wife (45-54 and 55-74), age at marriage (–20 and 20-24), and years of schooling (–7 and 7 and over), so that the effect of these could be balanced out between the families near cities and those far away, without narrowing the scope of the investigation. Because income was not on the same schedule, it could not be matched for the individual farmers but only for the counties in which they lived. Two degrees of association with the English were distinguished by dividing the French families into those who lived in an enumeration area containing five or more English-speaking families, and those living in an area containing fewer than five 13.
Before analyzing the 1,056 cases drawn into the sample, it was noted that the average of children ever born to mothers in distant [p. 93] places was 10.7 and in near places 9.1, a difference of 1.6 children (see Table 11). Because of the unequal numbers in the sub-classes however, this difference is not independent of the ages at marriage, etc. It would be arithmetically somewhat difficult to estimate the average number of children in near and far places separately, but the estimate of the difference between them is easily ascertained and is all that the problem requires. It turns out to be 1.28 children with a standard error of about .27.
Although it is impossible to establish that distance is the cause of the difference, as can be done in an experiment where families are allocated at random, yet, it may be said with high probability that the difference secured in the sample is the same in direction as that which would be found by examination of all of the families in the two sets of counties. In other words, the strength or the weakness of the inference is not in the sample size, but in the completeness with which variables which might be confounded with distance, have been eliminated.
Significant results were attained, not only on distance but on three of the other five variables – age at marriage, income, and years of schooling. Co-residence with the English, on the other hand, does not seem to be related to family size. Evidently it is not a trait which is carried in any important degree through the sorts of contacts which exist between English and French.
We now consider the meaning of our statistical result in broader terms, starting with the notion of a « route of acceptance » of new culture traits. It is known that in general they go from rich to poor, from city to country, etc. The change in family size which is spreading with the contemporary spread of the industrial revolution, as one of the few traits whose movement among sections of the population is statistically documented, serves as a tracer of new traits in general.
This part of our investigation is concerned with whether the route of acceptance has a spatial dimension. It is not to be expected that a space differential would be detectable in a mobile society. In a less mobile one, especially in that section of it which is on the land where the impact of changed ways of doing things is cushioned by an agriculture at least partly independent of the market, it is a priori likely that the handing on of new traits is to groups farther from the city by those nearer.
Result of hand compilation of 1,056 families from 1941 census schedules : showing for each cell average number of children ever born and number of families on which average is based
When the statistical data are examined on this point, and they rather consistently report that, at a moment of time, there is a difference in family size, evidence of the movement is provided. Some social effect appears to flow from cities which influence the number of children born to those living near-by, but no effect flows from English-speaking people to French. Though there is undoubtedly contact between French and English, in business as in social life, the behaviour of the French farmer, in one fundamental matter at least, is not determined by it. The influence of the English-speaking world upon him appears to be via the French cities.
One of the universal features of industrialization is the fact that industry mobilizes a set of people, who are ignorant of the ways of the urban « work world », and makes them part of the industrial community. In so doing, to use a phrase of E.-C. Hughes, it sorts and sifts them. That is to say, it sorts and sifts them into occupational classes, into social classes, frequently by ethnic background. And it may sort them out spatially as far as their places of residence in the community are concerned. Industry, in mobilizing a work force, is a formidable mixer of diverse peoples but it also sorts and sifts on a grand level.
Mr. Keyfitz is introducing us to some of the ways in which the rural population of Quebec has been affected by industrialization. Each of the four main sections of his lucid paper invites, or indeed provokes, one to ask further questions. My comments are restricted to the second section, wherein he attempts an analysis of the flow of migrants from the farms, and considers their fates in the urban industrial world. His statistics give us a picture of the Quebec farm workers leaving the farm, entering the urban world, where they appear as an increasing or decreasing proportion of various kinds of industrial workers. For example, we have estimates of those who have migrated in the decade 1931-41 and estimates for the proportion of French among various occupations e.g., truck drivers rose from 24 per cent of the total to 30 per cent in this decade.
These skeletal figures, set forth in a manner of precise elegance, raise a host of further questions. We have here indisputable evidence of geographical movement of farm members and similar evidence of changes in the composition of industrial occupations. What has transpired within these two changes ?
First, there has gone on a process of selection. Notwithstanding Mr. Keyfitz' statement to the contrary, we actually know little about how the migrants are selected for the urban jobs. We do have accurate, and indeed artistic, accounts of the way in which the family on the farm selects the son to inherit the farm. Miner and Arensberg have documented this matter in great detail. Every [p. 97] thirty years or so, the farm requires a new family to run it and the current family selects a son whose age, temperament, skill, marital condition, and number of children make him the desirable new owner. The process of selection is sharp and clear.
We have knowledge, too, of the way the farm family selects a member for the learned professions, though here the matter gets out of its hands a bit. It may select a son for the priesthood and make sacrifices to pay for his training, but it cannot guarantee that he will be successful in his studies. It may find itself with an unsuccessful candidate on its hands, who has to be fitted into the work world in some second-best fashion.
A different pattern emerges with the girl selected for the convent. This may be a case in which the girl has failed to find a husband, and bit by bit, comes to accept the life of the convent as the appropriate alternative. In a sense, we can say that she is selected to the convent life because she has been rejected in the marriage market. There are probably a great many places in the work world where the jobs are filled by a process of selection by rejection. Anyone who has spent time in a hospital ward has probably realized that the people who make nice nurses also make nice wives at an early age ; other nurses go on to be supervisors.
To a considerable degree, then, the farm family selects the members to migrate by a process of rejection. It would be of interest to know in what ways the ones who leave differ from those who remain on the farms. It would be of equal importance to understand how selection by rejection affects the one who leaves. Miner has given us a vivid picture of the way in which the son, selected to remain on the farm, develops an equable, self-confident personality – in sharp contrast to that of the boys who, in Arensberg's words, know they « have to travel ».
When we turn to the industrial experiences of the rural migrants, other questions emerge. Keyfitz informs us that in the wake of such migration the numbers of French truck drivers increased substantially. He doesn't tell us whether any of these truck drivers are recent migrants from the farms. Perhaps none of these truck drivers came directly from the farms, but the farms supplied migrants who entered more lowly occupation, thereby releasing urban dwellers for the jobs as drivers. In other words the occupations of the industrial world comprise a hierarchy [p. 98] ranging from lowly, despised sorts of jobs to ones that bear prestige and are striven for. Furthermore the migrant from the farm enters this hierarchy at a very low level. Thereafter his destiny is bound up with the extent to which he and his children can climb in this hierarchy of jobs and occupations.
It would be unrealistic of course to think of the new migrants as taking over completely a set of jobs at the bottom of the job hierarchy. Rather, they share these jobs with a set of people who are urban in outlook. Part of the drama of the work world consists of the ways in which urban industrial people deal with the greenhorns from the farm. There is no automatic welcome here. The French-speaking farmers in the Eastern Townships are not automatically welcomed by the English farmers there. These self same French-speaking farmers, faced with the invasion of other French-speaking farmers from the hinterland of Quebec, are likely to apply the epithet « black feet » to the newcomers. Nor are these merely rural prejudices. The young doctor from the sticks is not welcomed as an immediate equal colleague by his city bred co-practitioners. There is a universal process of partial acceptance and partial rejection here which is an inescapable feature of assimilating the farm migrant into the industrial labour force.
I would like to introduce one further notion. I have stressed the fact that all occupational groups are sensitive to the invasion of their ranks by any kind of newcomer – be he of a different race, language, religion, sex, age or education. In our own society, ethnic groups are concerned about their fates, as groups, in their distribution among the various occupations and jobs which comprise the work world. But no group restricts its attention solely to its own fate. If the French-speaking truck drivers increase from 24 to 30 per cent, some groups have declined proportionately. If these jobs have prestige, some group feels its fate threatened by the success of the French-speaking worker in taking over such jobs. Given our multi-cultural industrial world, this phenomenon is inescapable. The achievements of one group are the measure (to some degree) of the failures of another to keep up in this struggle. Seen in this light, the industrial work world represents a drama on a set of stages, so to speak, on which stages diverse ethnic groups are engaged, at the various points in time, in a [p. 99] struggle with other groups for representation in the multitudinous kinds of jobs and occupations which make up the industrial world. There is room on these stages for concern and anxiety, for jubilation and for renunciation, for hostility and for accommodation as these historic groups strive to achieve their varied notions of their collective destinies.
In conclusion, one might say, in the language of Kenneth Burke, that the industrial world represents, for the incoming migrant, a dramatic spectacle. The scene of the drama is the newly industrialized community. The act under way is the upward mobility of workers. The actors on the stage are the various ethnic groupings of the society. The agencies employed are the methods of selection by which workers are chosen for the various jobs and occupations. The end of the action is the fate or destiny of the ethnic groups as historic units. Mr. Keyfitz's paper represents a lucid, elegant and significant design of the stage on which the Quebec industrial spectacle is going on.
1 Census of Canada, 1941, vol. IV, p. 380.
2 Enid CHARLES, The changing size of the Canadian family, 1941, Census Monograph, Dominion Bureau of Statistics, Ottawa.
3 See Aileen D. Ross, Ethnic relations and social structures : A study of the Invasion of French-speaking Canadians into an English-Canadian district, unpublished Ph. D. Thesis submitted to the Department of Sociology, University of Chicago, 1951.
4 Horace R. MINER, St. Denis, a French-Canadian parish, Chicago, The University of Chicago Press, 1939.
5 Full detail of these calculations will be presented in another paper shortly to be published by the author.
a Referred to in Everett-C. HUGHES, French Canada in transition, Chicago, University of Chicago Press, 1941.
6 Horace MINER, op. cit., pp. 81-83.
8 Op. cit.
9 S. M. JAMIESON, French and English in the institutional structure of Montreal, A study of the social and economic division of labour, M. A. Thesis, McGill University, 1938.
10 Everett-C. HUGHES, The problem of planning in Quebec, in Housing and Community Planning, McGill, 1947, p. 159.
11 Edward SAPIE, Art fashion, Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences.
12 Province of Quebec Statistical Year-Book, 1913.
13 For a more elaborate account of the method used in this analysis, see Nathan KEYFITZ, A factorial arrangement of comparisons of family size, American Journal of Sociology, vol. LVIII, No 5, March 1952, pp. 470-480.
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