Part II: Problem space itself -- specific question: what is (or what are) the real challenge(s)?
what are the important ways to approach it: urban vs. rural; developed vs. developing
III: (parallel to II) figuring out what possible solutions are? How does the solution apply to the problem space? Capture that information. Right down every single solution. Description, links, who is developing?, time til availability, legal issues.
Matrix 2: Connect problem to solutions -- make it better ordered by breaking it into tracks
some solutions will not fit into any tracks
can we come up with something really interesting because nobody has considered it before?
IV: Data analysis -
problem: crop variety
problem: production rates
solution: nanocore filtration
biotech: genetic engineering
V: Data mining: take a look at the most interesting solutions. 1-20 intersecting opportunities
Understand the scope of the problem
new technology that is missing
three, four, five problem spaces -- tight problem space
ETIR: 0.1 - 1.0 - 1.1
Plan (paragraph) N/A-100%-N/A
Requirements for greenhouse
Brainstorm our problem space
JULY 19 2010
\"agriculture\" in the broad sense
environment -- food consequences
developmnt insights and perspectives
transport fuel efficiencies
hopes and fears
developing world agriculture - 60,70,80% of the agriculture
horizontal across a consumer item
worked in zimbabwe, india, niger, usa
pathology of plants, photoperiod effects
instruments that measure environments
working for fundamentally small farmers -- challenges that small farmers have
15 yo came to the USA and started working for UGA. funded by USAID.
scientists in developing countries and counterparts in USA. look to develop technologies, human capacity. mutually beneficial
(question: what do scientists from USA \"get\")
change world health through major disease brought by toxins in food, 43% of the burden of disease in a toxin in many foods
transportation fuel economy
simplify complex processes -- design process
school feeding -- have schools buy locally. get a whole lot of things to happen. in guyana. now all that moves inland is the money. the produce is captured in that environment.
vaccin delivery without the cold chain
global warming through farming seeds
opportunity to use the properties of peanuts to capture vaccines without the coldness.
invented a heat engine that will run on any heat source. it will provide a way to grow crops or whatever
heat approaches to organic weed control -- one of the reasons that slash and burn is an establishd technology. it's the only way that you will grow anything in those environments.
in africa the biggest control for what they can produce is the extent to which women can weed
whole lot of investment in the area of the algae -- sequestering CO2
Problems of coral and global warmning - as the seeds get warm , oxygen solubility goes down, as soon as you put oxygen in it, death. pump cold water into the surf zone to oxygenate it, save coral. only a question of scale before you can manage a hurricane, world's weather.
technology treadmills, margins and scale
as soon as other people get into the technology treadmill, they work harder and harder to stay in the same position
we've got probably 20% of the population in th rural areas that were there 50 years ago
the output of that in a devloping world would be catastrophic
technology does not solve problems
people very quickly work out that although they've got a bigger yield, they didn't make a whole lot more and they did a lot more work
fertility -- phosphorous, etc -- put into the river, exported to the sea
make it less linear - important, necessary for sustainability
rand: how could you make it less linear?
phosphorous from mines in the developed world.
in a place like africa, the phosphorous is depleted. you can see the historic migration of the village depending on mineral stores.
could we replenish phosphorous?
if we separate the urine stream from the fecal stream, we could do it.
next opportunity: if you were to grow algae with a multiple array of endpoints, you would absorb all of the nutrients in the water, you could have the water in the sea to be as good as the water coming off the mountain. algae -- separate oil -- ferment the rest. end up with a potential of a fertilizer.
why isn't it being done?
people are starving. we need some fuel. we cold take the proteins out of the algae and have the proteins out of that. at some point, we need to achieve/maintain their fertility.
native american: tie corn bundle to fish -- phosophorous and nitrogen
market pull v production push -- how do you create demand for quality foods
food relationships with disease -- corn + HIV (0.65), potato + a lot of unhealthy things
everyone needs subsidies... developing countries cannot afford subsidies for agriculture. can they afford not to?
oceans or deserts? where the light is is not where the minerals are. way to activate the deep well into the ocean to take nutrint rich deep water, to move it slowly to the top. bring those nutrients up. if we can do that, we could address the carbon dioxide and produce infinite quantities of sea foods. mor seafood coud be available.
(quesiton about \"rural equity\" -- food for cities? )
you can't stop the transport of food
social marketing to make these changes
school feeding program - having demonstrated. international food and agricultural development, UNICEF, etc -- taking our model. doing the same thing in other palces. create demand through educational models. insist that it is created locally. the ability to control quality biological contaminants, toxins. clean water problem?
cup with sour milk used to feed babies covered with flies. but they still survive.
our common preception of afrotoxins
in developing countries, every person has biomarkers.
we don't see hug levels of liver cancer because people are dying from other purposes
it is supressing immunit and repressing nutritional value
reflected in infectious disease
more underweight children
more and faster HIV, more diarrheas from unsafe water
vitamin A, zinc, iron
we can save it for 60 or 70 cents / year by connecting clay
it absorbs these toxins very carefully
persistence ----!!!! in the developing world. change not just the road but the people.
health opportunities: particularly effective
peanuts: heart health, obesity, diabetes, resveratrol, school feeding
aflatoxicosis -- can be high levels in peanuts. walnuts, cashews, hazelnuts are all able to have high levels. addressing that is a really important thing.
used in famine-relief with children who are accutely malnourished -- lots of publicity
anybody who deals with any of these products are going to have to handle that.
if ou can sell your peanuts that are toxin-free, then you can sell the quality of school.
poor people don't ay a whole lot of attention to quality of food. concerned about NOW and not the future.
afrotoxic exposure and other diseases - relationship?
corn is the biggest source of aflatoxin
the tolerances are based on cancer -- the amounts allowed before cancer? what about with immunosupprssion. small amount everyday for ten years is the same as the same amount in a small amount of time.
take out into the developing world the toxin-binding qualities of these clays. we are allowed to have a certain amount of aflotoxin in our foods. it is very assymetric in crops. one seed will contain 90% of aflotoxin. having a protection against that makes good sense.
in animal feed, they use the clays already because it costs so little.
fresh water quality - control of fish
transportation fuels - grow instead of dig (biofuel)
tied to all of this is global warming
we can reasonably take CO2 to pre-industrial levls if we address sea fertility
why one wouldn't want to do that amazes me. the known: we are in a bad place.
another huge oppotunity: take a large part of australia.
Security is a big issue for urban farming, how do we secure the food from theft.
urban farming -- why isn't it happening?
margins -- people can make and transport food cheaply
this is starting to happen. people want it. not a whole lot of people yet; the people can afford. the rejection of the person who is well-fed.
another problem: the security issue
algae -- why isn't it being done already?
idea: take the stream down the river into the dam and get it to be a contained part of the lake and when it had absorbed the nutrients and grown you would then pull it out and separate it.
rand: it would be so easy!
john: it is just developing the infrastructure. shallow waste, horse waste. you want specific species. contamination is a huge issue. if you are trying to get oil, bubble CO2 into it. extracting algae out of the water is challenging. energy to filter it out. get all of those parasitic loads working together.
in sunnyvale you can do it because they have a lot of land and the right water.
costs to separate fecal waste and urine.
80% of the carbon footprint of corn is nitrogen fertilizer
use nanotech to quantify food value -- separate out contaminated grains
the area of nanotech
hydroponics become more feasible as you go to scale
there might be an optimum point
the $40 tomato
British guy -- Jamie Oliver for the school kitchens
do it through the big stick of the government?
create the market
that's the margin
cost of production is not nearly as variable as returns
driven by overproduction in certain areas
can we use corn for something else?
the price point of everything will go up?
how much more expensive could it be?
what's the scale that
we are spending just a few percent of GDP on food
in Europe they spend a lot more
people are going to have to give up something else to do this; food will have to be a more valuable part of their lives
we got used to dirt cheap food just as we got used to dirt cheap gasoline
the message is getting out:
the true cost of food is the cost of sustainable food
can we get carbon credits for food production?
which of the foods can the most easily take the higher price?
not the staple foods
July 22 2010
Goal: Urban Farming (for 1 bn in 10 yrs)
Mechanism: \"Prius\" of Urban Farming
(1) Doesn't solve all problems
(2) Economically available to some
(3) Important Tech. step
(4) \"Market-Maker\" - started the revoluiton
(A) Behavioral/Social (\"What needs to change for consumers?\")
Market Study, Buzz, Awarenes Building, PR
cool, do-no-harm, do-no-worse
(1) Willing to pay $$
(2) \"allies\" - happy to test
better for environment and health
Competitors, industry built out, pervasive urban farming
(What needs to change @ the product/ manufacturing level?)
specialty, costly produce that uses the most food miles
product for sale
product @ scale
price differential lower
reliable, quality assured
reasonable cost competition
cheap artificial lighting?
(\"What needs to change in the broader environment)
governmnt government as customer?
positive susid (tax credit, govt aid for urban farming)
widespread changes to food policy
change to food AID and relief
"San Francisco Marathon
Sunday, July 25th, 2010
We need a FINAL count of participants to determine how Singularity University will sponsor some of the cost of the SU students running the San Francisco Marathon.
Please write you name in the appropriate category, or erase your name if you have changed your mind, or not willing to pay up-front (or borrow the money:-)
Full Marathon ($145):
Eric Ezechieli - $145 (415) 867.7166 and Wife Anna (650) 426.8587
Second Half Marathon ($120): (The First Half Marathon is already sold out, unfortunately)
Diva Tommei - $120 (650) 276.9355
Erez Livneh - $120 (972-54) 590.5623
Lizzie Brook - $XXX (786) 303.5282
Mercy Njima - $120 (650) 669 5487
5K ($35): (Exploratorium + Golden Gate + Finish Line)
Jose Cordeiro - $35 (650) 229.4949
John Graves - $35 (650) 417.4149
Javier Mares - $XX (415) 324.9893
David Roberts - $35 (415) 215.5840
Juan Carlos L\u00f3pez - $35
Erika Anderson - $35 (208) 219.2631
Alison Lewis - $35 (646) 894.0809
Julielynn Wong - $35 (412) 841.5825
Aaron Kemmer - $XX (727) 403.9763
Matt Kern - $35 (203) 216.0352
San Ko - $35 (614) 736.6321
Candice Berezan - $35 (780) 906.0539
Sarah Jane Pell - $XX (61-41) 571.1717
Chiara Turelli - $35 (415) 623.4781
Erika Anderson (5 people) (208) 219.2631
David Roberts (5 people) (415) 215.5840
Eric Ezechieli (5 people) (415) 867.7166
Gary (???) (408) 218.0347
Bryce Goodman (???) (310) 740.8400
Robert Dening (???) (203) 326.0764
Francesco Galietti (???) 393386514493
Derek Jacoby (???) (206) 465.1903
Gettaraound Car (???)
Your company (???)
My company (???)
\x3center names here>
\x3cErez: I prefer to run at evenings/night>
Eric: early mornings (5.30 onwards, pls contact me if you want to go together)
Alison: Run early evenings (before dinner if possible)
\x3center names here>
\x3center names here>
Leader(s) of this new SU student tradition for 2010:
Jose (provisional until student(s) pick up the leardership)
\x3center names here>
General/big picture ideas, what are we trying to solve??
1. Provide access to energy for everyone in their homes
2. Focus on renewable sources
Electric motorcycles (more efficient than electric cars) recharged by a home solar/wind powered source, two batteries one for the bike, one that's recharging.
Electric powered, temperature sensitive, sunshades to help save energy with heating/cooling.
Very cheap electric usage sensors that can be placed on fridges, clothes dryers, dishwashers to wirelessly provide data to a PC program so you can monitor and adjust your usage.
Idea 8 - Movement
Charging your cell phone while you are walking is a proven technology. I have ever seen a demonstration. The charger is like a wrist-watch with moving parts on it. When you walk, the relative movement of the moving parts generate a magnetic field that can be converted into electricity.
5. everything relies on energy, it defines our culture 5
6. both pervasive and indispensable
7. inefficiency in distrubution 4
8. key to education
9. required in water problem 2
10. required in upcycling
11. no life without it
12. everyone has a right to it
13. urgent 2
15. key to evolution
16. to improve the quality of life
17. to eliminate power lines, beautify world
18. new markets and jobs
19. cheap energy creates problems (political, environmental) 2
20. drives innovation
21. some applications today will need more energy tomorrow
22. energy abundance disrupts the social tissue (you do not need to cooperate with others because energy substitutes cooperation and sharing)
1. Efficiency of the energy we already have
2. Utilize bio waste, batteries use redox reaction bacteria can digest waste to generate electricty
3. DIY portable devices (solar, wind)
4. power managing sun shades
5. smart grids
6. stand alone system 2
7. bio-engineering algae to be more efficient solar cells
8. smart grids, storage and distribution
9. space based solar
10. underwater turbines
11. mobile apps for energy comsumption awareness
12. project with DIY windmills manufacturing/distribution combined with open source methods so they can use local materials
13. capture energy from lightning
14. saving oil is cheaper than buying it (saving one barrel of oil costs less than 30$ https://docs.google.com/a/singularityu.org/fileview?id=0B0MS_U4P-uk9MDJhYjBmY2YtYjcxMi00ZDhlLTliZmEtNDM2MThhZjAxOTkx&hl=en )
15. use freefall force
16. alternative energy storage
17. having cars on the grid that can share the extra battery power when they are parked (smart grid for cars)
18. factor 4 engineering - provides services you need using 4 times less energy
19. educate decision makers
20. north american magnet train (??)
21. using cadavers to generate electricty
22. mandatory treadmill exercise
23. drill down to access geothermal
24. micro-turbines, tine engines to charge batteries (size of pencil erasers) runs on fuel
25. off shore micro nuclear power on abandoned oil tanker
26. mammalian muscle to act as a power source, create horse legs that run on food
27. thorium (?) research
28. Use vacuum force, space atmosphere
29. reduce the price on the final consumer end
30. use motion of any moving object
31. height potential battery, push something up when you have extra energy
34. capture energy in wheater system, hurricanes and hurricanes
35. energy trading, using profit to R&D
36. new laws
37. better battery technology
38. move towards globalizing energy distribution
39. ambient heat capture through thermoelectrics or stirling engine
40. capturing energy from sound waves
41. hybrid plant-animal cells w/ both chloroplasts and mitochondria that can convert light to sugar to energy
POSSIBLE CATEGORIES of WHAT
1. Production on Micro-scale (local, DIY)
2. Production on Macro-scale (Systems, grid)
3. Transfer & Storage
"Bioelectronics and biosensing
Meter read glucose
Patent reads glucose level on meter
dry coating of an enzyme
Patients adds drop of blood then inserts slide into meter
Bioelectronic device strategies
1) mediated whole organism
2) mediated enzyme only
3) direct electron transfer - enzyme only
soft-matter and solid-state
protein engineering problem:
1. can electrons pass freely between the catalytic cofactor and the electrode surface
electro engineering problem
2 can the electrode be trailered to bind proteins and remain conductive
protein are wires but mostly insulators
DNA photolyase --> repairs DNA in your body
The poly-peptide problem
Electrode design and engineering
Electrode-histidine tag ineraction
ZnO nanowire/histidine-tag binding
Defining religion - google sorts results based on popularity and most of search results bring you to wikipedia. How do we use wikipedia? What does this mean?
Clay Sharky (?) Harvard discusses this
Daniel Pink, Drive - surprising truth about what motitvates us - people want to et better at what they do so they share - people get paid for technically sophisticaed things for work but then after work they do even more! why? because of the desire of mastery
The Success of Open Source - Steven Weber - it's advantageous to give away more and more. People who use Wikipedia but don't pay for it - they give feedback, ideas etc....
Unchecked positive feedback loop to drive human intelligence
Open Allure - John's work - conversational open-source system. The content is collaborative, like in wikipedia
What we find in Wikipedia at anytime is an open project- like unitarianism.
Search for truth or purpose or other things (even in multiple languages) still links to Wikipedia - suggests unitarian principles
Only a tiny fraction of actual users actually edit pages - 99-1 rule - 90% is audience, 9% editors, 1% creators
How does Wikipedia work? WHat is future
Wikipedia has five principles, encyclopedia, neutral view, free content for anyone, respect, no firm rules beyond rules.... unitarianism is customized
What do unitarianists believe, free and open search for meaning - acceptance of one another.
Two additional pillars of unitarianism
Sam Harris TED Talk - relationship between science and human values
questions about right/wrong aren't questions of science.... separation of facts and values... no description of science that can explain the way science aught to be... why is it that we don't have moral obligations to rocks? is it because we believe they are potentially exposed to a greater experience of emotions?
we know it's possible to live in a failed state and to move on this continuum. we know there are right and wrong ways to move aroudn this space? is it a good idea to add cholera to the water? probably not...
this makes wikipedia look very similar to unitarianism.... humanity at a whole is learning so much so fast, even experts can't keep up. information management systems are being developed but for a while we will be overwhelemed
Q: was anyone at Sam Harris talk, what was crowd's reaction?
How Energy will fix Space
and Space will fix Energy
77% expect a business out of Space TP
Energy is essential for survival.
All the team projects depend on energy somewhat
World's most valuable resource attention
Connor's been owrking on augmenting for the last 7 years
[Uses phone to demostrate the point of interuptions]
A pen is a tool that never interupts you
Tech now xbox, biosensor, phone, computer all vying for your attention, trying to monopolize your attention
Maybe I was working on saving the planet and now I'm distracted and won't get back to that thought for another month
Eye contact imples attention, with eye contact 80% of the time you are either talking or listening
If you gave a lecture with back to the crowd it would be weird, yet our computer does that constantly
Brains are designed to be attracted to eyes and concentric circles (peacocks)
Use gestures, body orientation and eye contact to imply attention
Test results and doctor visists are snap shots that don't track your health progress
Uricase is tied to a dye in a redox reaction
UA Sure, Blood Uric Acid Monitoring System
Experiments in biphasic and polyphasic sleep cycles
DIY EEG, was finicky
Zeo, your personal sleep monitor, deep sleep didn't change despite hour of sleep difference
Sometimes you think your aweake but it says your sleeping, perhaps a dream of lying down awake
OK guys. Actually I had not prepared when Salim asked us. I have some materials in Portuguese to give you an overview - including biologically inspired algorithms.
Maybe next Saturday, overview in more depth.
So, came here to give you overview of background.
Get you guys to know me better.
OK, area of research is in Natural Computation
[Slide: computations observed in Nature]
David Deutsch - quantum computation
Pioneer in field. Been in contact with him over last 3 years.
I empathize some of his views - philisophical aspects.
I will show you email we have exchanged in which he explains
physical / computational models.
Lecture by Deutsch:
Computer Physical System
Input Final state
[music comes from other room ...]
[long quote from e-mail]
Slide: Evolutionary Algorithms
Population - Parents - Offspring.
Derive new models that might be more efficient.
Used for Satellite Structure Design.
Q: Program. Called \"Critical.\"
First AI that builds its own. Writes its own code.
This program just starts writing from zero.
Based on Darwinian process.
Best at the moment
Try pack-o-mania (?)
50-60 people were doing this. Now done by computer.
Q: Autorecursive. While running, changing its own code. This is new.
Q: Evolution. Humans in space. Result of stochastic optimization.
We evolved from universe.
Is evolution is a stochastic optimization?
Yes. DD has a theory of universal theory of everything.
Richard Dawkins from Oxford.
If we are here, it was one of the paths that evolution took to get us here.
So yes, I agree with you.
Q: David Dell: Digital computation versus analog nature?
That's a trick question. If I understand correctly, ...
Stephen Wolform - simple rules.
Very basic units of information.
Universe is digital.
Q: Are there similarities running these simulations across products?
Evo Optimization is general problem solving tool.
6:15 Out in main room.
Salim: Bunch of little admin things. 3/4 of class here.
Thank you to moderators.
Scrap all lectures and just have sessions together.
Q too parallel
Q 3 max
KKauser: liked 5 at a time
Q: have another one
Q: List of who presented what. We can leave the board up.
Salim: mail out photo of board
Q: Upload powerpoints.
Now you can run it yourselves. You don't need us. Best structure we have found for skills transfer.
Lots of chances to have casual conversations.
Carve out 3 hours. Light infrastructure.
David: Should have had lunch in this building somehow.
work together to make this soon.
David A: See more of your face, great.
Dan: One sentance summary? Future of
Sung from the back -
Sung from the front -
Eric: New opera in Italy.
Dan: You've left the faculty speechless.
Medicines by exponential technologies
We take them.
Adverse drug reaction
High cost, lower efficiency.
100,000 people die in the US.
Why - not enough information. Solution - technology.
So, basically, use proteomics
One size fits all
Especially in 2010.
Not including genetic.
Design intelligent IPC
Especially drug/gene interactions.
5-7 medications cause problems.
What is the solution - optimal dosing.
Print a boli? pill
Holds 7 pills.
Printer which can do biochemical systhesis and analysis.
Merge many things into one. Will increase efficiency.
Go to pharmacy.
Spend the money on something more useful
Five years from now
Wireless connection to doctor.
Print all vitamins, in our bread/tea.
Get low on cartridges, can refill.
E-Bay, get supplements.
Benefits, real time biochem analysis.
Peak performance whole day.
Minerals, antidotes printed.
1 pill instead of 5
Basically better performance.
If anybody has an idea, I'll be really happy if you join us.
A new era coming.
Brad: Recreational uses of this printer.
Marko: What do you mean?
Marko: You can do it.
So, you can ask Daniel. He gave me a lot of literature for it.
Dan: If everybody can print own antibiotics, get antibiotic resistance.
Point about use.
Marko: This is true. Go from supplements on market - granules.
Ways to get over these troubles. Needs more ideas.
David Dell: Possible in-between steps.
Personal dispensing system. 20 tubes into a pill.
Marko: We know where we want to go.
How we will get there.
Brad: You looked at us. You were better at that. Try for eye contact.
Dan: We need just a moment. Our original group is done.
Salim is occupied.
- 1st and 6th protocol
World came together to address needs
If they just take 2, will go a long way
Map - people living on $2 per day.
Target 6 B By 2010 HIV AIDS treatment.
Another target, come down to 20%
People living on less than $1 per day.
Only 42% of people having it.
WHO predicts death.
Maybe 700,000 in 2030
One little girl still smiling.
People at SU learning that technology moving to Africa
By 2030, only 20% in sub sahara will be
Energy - then water
Finance - getting money into the hands of the people
Microfinance - roll back poverty.
Education will increase.
Productivity will improve.
By 2020, platforms for money
With electronics, do not need cash.
Nigeria 4 1 9 Be duped.
Poverty line rolled back.
by 2020 smart phones ubiquitious
Medical people will be able to understand this is better.
Personalized HIV treament.
Ensure you are healthy
By 2015, regenerative cells.
Be able to adopt system
By 2025 - HIV Type 1 and 2 eliminated.
Only vaccinate if needed.
I believe that
1st and 6th, people living on less that $5 / day. HIV not dread.
Thank you .
That is my emini is smiling.
For the next 5 minutes, let each 15 seconds represent one year and a doubling of the capabilities of human/computer interfaces. We begin with the capabilities we have today, shown by the large circle on this graph. As we look into the future, our current capabilities will always be represented by the circle in the lower left corner. Don't think of this circle as \"shrinking\" -- think of it instead as a constant yardstick, like a legend on a map viewed from further and further away. We will be moving further away in time, rather than space, so the largest circle will always represent the extent of our future capabilities relative to the present.
Note that what we already have today fills our senses and stretches our capacity to absorb stimulation. Yet after just a few years the combined capabilities of the mouse and keyboard, of the touch screen and the mobile phone, of CD-quality sound, digital high definition television and 3D animated movies begin to pale in comparison to the interactions of the future.
What will these interactions be like? Some trends are clear. The technology becomes
more transparent and our use of it more natural. Devices grow smaller. Sounds and images become ever more realistic. We use technology to transcend limits of space and time, projecting ourselves and our actions across great distances and gathering insights and information more rapidly than ever before.
This spreading and extension of who and where we are, of how and when we observe and experience the world through technology, will have profound consequences. Skype and streaming video already let us shrink the world into a laptop. As we approach 10 doublings of our current capabilities, these applications may seem trivial, just as we look back on a groundbreaking consumer electronics product like the Sony Walkman as something trivial today. We should expect to be humbled and amazed by the transformations ahead.
Human/computer interaction can be viewed as a mediated form of human to human interaction, like literature, or before that art. The breadth and depth of the messages we convey through technology will continue to expand until they reach the limits of our perception. We may already be close to limits in our ability to hear with high fidelity 3D sound systems. Imagine when we have a similar level of fidelity in controling what we see. Imagine when we can feel the heat and cold, the textures and pressures of a virtualized world. We should expect to be moved and motivated by these new forms of shared human experience.
Look at the relative scale of these exponentially growing capabilities after 15 doublings.
The path of development to this longer horizon reveals how relatively little we must know today, and how some fringe ideas like direct mind/machine interfaces might gestate and develop for years before taking over and transforming the mainstream.
But as we move into the final years of a 20 year projection, we see our current state of knowledge and capability dwindle to insignificance. Clearly something truly momentous -- a singularity -- is in store within our lifetimes, even if we can barely imagine what it will be like today. Computers that absorb and distribute and reorganize our thoughts. Systems that process our physical bodies as information. A synthesis and transcendance of natural and artificial life. New technologies we cannot foresee which won't appear for a decade yet. They'll change everything. We should expect lots of change. And then accelerating change.
Yet observe from this graph how the largest circle on this exponential future path is always where we are at that point in time. At that point in time, it is the status quo. This world of awesome, moving, accelerating change is the world we will create and live in. We should plan and expect to be proud of it.
Finally, shift the perspective on this graph from the future of human/computer interaction to the origin of life -- YOUR life. We all started from the union of two cells into one. That tiny cell doubled and doubled and doubled again over many months. Do not doubt the power of exponential growth, because you are born of it.
When you consider our transition from matter to mind, we are
\u2013 each of us \u2013
Brad: Positive and negative. Break out of Powerpoint mode - good.
Unlikely to see doubling of human/computer interface capabilities - still using mouse and keyboard.
Dan: Be specific.
Tell about open allure.
JG: Thanks for asking. An on-ramp to AI. Talking to each other through the technology, then with the technology.
David: Don't read.
Salim: You are wearing at tie!
- The Story of Real Estate
How - a little H. Nobody every hurt.
Owned all - including the ladies
Kind of disappeared.
100,000s of years.
The Real Estate Industry baby
Developed world $46 T residentia.
Commercial property $40 T
Piece Dumb and Dumber
6% commision is dead
You will see in a second [laugh]
Instantly have access.
More, smarter, AI tell about area.
When any owner of a business can see what is available.
Develop more intelligent realtors.
Not have to leave home.
Simulate the site seeing, pass through a floor that will move around you.
Social network, what is popular.
What areas most important.
Greener people [laughter]
Contest for naked girl friends. couple of my ex-girlfriends.
[much laughter and applause]
Ralph: Alriiiight. Excellent. What was that conclusion again. Lots of scantily clad women. Real Estate brokerage
Emiliano: Last photo - not naked. Counting 2 earlier in presentation.
Sarah Jane Pell
What an amazing context to talk to you today about the neo-aquatic human.
I've been racking my brains.
Not the questions I need to ask.
1966 Leonard Clark
Use oxygenated liquid to breath underwater.
USe this capability to extend our own breath.
Imagine if I could collaborate with people with advanced
More importantly, work with biologists.
We can contain - membrane around the body.
the skin could respire.
Like a tetrahema.
Bio mimetic principle.
Working with underwater robotics.
Come in future with AI.
Priviledges, work with undersea habitat,
What I see is even more exciting.
Build and restore undersea construction.
People who have been dreaming about sea-steading.
Life above and below the oceans.
On a macro level, look what is happening with really simple biology.
Sustain life in
People experimenting, and artists, with gelatin
Pushing boundaries of
Gelatin has incredible properties, forms.
Whole new dimension. Look to future.
Liquid based, O2 habitats. Artificial shell.
Putting life in these small gelatenous contexts?
What potentials are hanessed in bioreactors.
If the answer is yes,
I suggest we simply dive in.
David Dell: One sentance summation?
SJP: How to use bio-aquatic thinking for moving forward.
David: Gave a lot of examples, are those the limits?
SJP: Starting point, not an end point.
In this context, process- patch. Where might this lead.
A kind of strategy based not on countermeasures, but harness measures.
David: Wonderful job showing what this could be.
Salim: There is part of you that you hold back. Something not coming fully out.
Emiliano: Maybe present underwater.
Salim: Learned a huge amount.
Dan: If you could breathe underwater what is the first thing you would do?
SJP: Send a postcard to my parents and that would be it for quite some time. New kind of exploration.
Dan: Where would you go?
I'd like to go into uncharted territories.
Dan: How would an underwater be different?
SJP: Very different.
Dan: How? Why?
SJP: Basic needs would be same, but sense of touch we need would be inhibited. We'd find way to overcome this.
My understanding from working in that space - not only a bodily experience. Understand my body in and of a body of water. I'm completely connected.
I don't have that connection on land.
I have that connection with individuals.
How precious life is.
David A: Wouldn't water amplify sensibility?
SJP:Not conscious of what I see. Contact with other bodies is ...
Dan: Would you make contact with other species.
Loss of speech?
SJP: Still speak through your body.
Brad: Other than the food would be soggier. Are there people?
SJP: Free divers would take it up.
Imagine it being liberating for people with disabilities.
Physical limitation - experience space in whole new way.
Thought I would like a warm welcome.
Take you now, in the coming minutes.
Many technical presenations.
Future art meets exp technology.
Served 2 years at Italian min of fin.
tons of paper.
Democratic govts need consensu.
Need mone to buy consensus.
One thing is sure.
Protect against war,
Not just wars, cyberwars
New social needs.
This is a crucial task.
Too high when people are in their adult age.
Too low in late age.
Web based universities.
Great new opportunities
Super tax collectorscoming like
Very great opportunity, governmen wil have acess to information.
Will make invormed error.
As easy as [ching, ching]
\"I can't do that\"
This is what you will need.
What is next.
Will the Ican't do it prevail
Let's do it the old way?
[cannon] no choice
If you don't adapt, your neighbor will.
Can you think about a war against a super modern enemy.
This is why you have to communicate the wonders of exp tech.
No antidote against risk
What can govt do?
Must not move against common sense.
Another lesson. Govt should not impose restrict. Geniuses will go to neighbor.
Dr. Moreau should not perform tricks in teh public.
Dedicatedspacs for that.
This is for ou David don't play with mother church
Dont dispute the divine nature of man.
That was it.
Salim: Where did that last big come from?
Never would have thought of before coming to Rome. Exactly where you'd expect resistance, comes help, provided you do not prompt a negative reacion.
Francesco: Not alternative to embracing exp for government. Main task not only for legal frameworks, but communicate to populations.
Dan: One example
If you manage, in education during period they are empoyed, will save incredible about of money. Uploading into the brains of people new lessons, and skills. More money into their pensions.
Dan: Edu is not an exp techn. Components. Specific examples.
Francesco: Vision about outcome, not instrumetns.
David A: Infrastructure. Govt structures. Necessities.
Touched on subject.
You had content.
Complex in its thought.
Sound effects were distracting.
More words, less pictures.
Francesco:Govt is secretive. Not delivered any presentation for 2 years.
Brad: Like animated people. Slides went a littel too far.
When designing slides, they should not upstage you.
Dan: What is your dream to change the world?
Francesco: A world with more options fro any individual. Limited - varies vastly depending on where born. In West, ample choice. If it is born elsewhere, limited options. Whatever that means.
Dan: Exp make that possible.
Dan: Great, we'll talk some more.
Hello. My name is Julian
Revolution for the bottom of the pyramid.
Revolution with the bottom.
1.5 b people, earn less than $1,500 per year.
People don't know where they are. How much they can pay.
These People live in Slums.
1st Phase - build emergency houses
2nd Phase - social programs - get skills
3rd Phase - permanent houses
Santiago - my city. Blue is rich, red is poor.
Opportunities in different place from where people are.
Same slum, spend $1 per day to connect.
3G for $1 / day.
But in 8 years, better internet connection.
In this moment, hot map of necessities.
People can show us, given that we can resolve with technology.
So let's innovate together.
For example, my project.
People in the bottom - $1 bn of social problem
People in Africa - create technology, DIY shower
Create factories with AI intelligence.
First step to include this in the BOP market, work with familes.
Fast way to improve the life.
David A: Keep looking at faces. Get more of your stories from Chile, passion already alive.
When you turn away, let them see you searching
Dan: Your personal experience - how you are making a differenc.e
Here are particular technologies I can use to change my part of the world.
Brad: Liked concreteness. Very down to earth. Assume buildings in Chile are something.
Salim: Would have taken Andrea and put her at the start. What will her life look like.
Dan: More you can personalize it- see her world through her eyes.
David A: and you already have the story
Eugenie = marketing 2.0
Internet - following exponential trend.
Coming from usage.
Overpassing radio - radio in 1895.
Will overpass TV. People watching more internet than TV
In 2010, Q1 - budget online is $5.9 bn ads
We need to be more optimistic.
- slow decline of content you cannot measure
ads will change.
be able to quantify everything about your self.
I am cooking
I am happy, depressed.
Senses blasting - all video/text/image- test it smell it
DIY not like that, Coca-Cola penguin.
Everything from the brain.
Completely interactive with you Brand \x3c-> You
Full integration -
Full cycle - Users / Tech / Branding
Give you a message on exactly what you want.
Amazing world where
Merci de votre attention
David: Nutshell. Us or advertsing?
Advertising, but according to us.
David: Do you like changes?
Dan: What are you going to do?
Move to being more discrete.
Ad will always be business model, like google. Always be the model.
Revolutionize to make it more efficient.
Dan: That's what Google will do. How about you?
Google not there. On the display there. Just follwing demogaphic infor, not state of mind. Even activites, - on internet. Mountain of information to gather.
Brad: Two kinds of marketing.
Other crates tastes - is that good.
Branding. First of mind for a user.
We in advertising won't be pushing.
Google has not launched any marketing compnay, they have just be accessed by user.
David A: Spoke more to one half of room.
When you went to 2020, a dramatic shift.
Dan: Anyone not presented, besides Fabio.
Luke has a talk he'd like to do.
Fabio: Longest day of my life.
4:00 Going to talk about the future of software
How impact our lives in a very particular way.
With advent of AI.
Computer experience will be totally radically changed in aspect.
What is going to be like in the future wih AI?
We are going to emergy human and machines.
Computational power increasing every 18 months.
Harvest, or retrieve,
from incredible data.
On the other hand we have, the real human intelligence. Artifically make human behavior in the machine.
Where things are going to start to work the way you work.
The way the information flows through - system work flows.
Working less, having more free time - things that you want to do.
Get computer to solve for me.
That's my first option.
And, um, guys understand what I'm saying. Pretty hard.
Cognitive sotware, helping you do what you have to do.
That's it. Sorry.
Dan: Very important point we brought up at lunch. When robots doing all these things, not enough standard employment for people.
Your picture was more free time, woo hoo. But what if people get bored.
If you had a lot of free time, how would you not be bored.
How is society going to deal with having a lot of free time?
Soething to know. You can choose working less. Things are happening. We spend more time working. Having fun. Having families. One thing I miss - I work all day long to achieve my commitments. Very little free time to do other things.
Fabio: If all your time was free, what would you do now?
Help other people. I wish I could stay here all my life. Working on too many porjects. What I like to do. Have th emoney, have the time.
Fabio: You would have the work, but it would feel like leisure.
David A: More passion. Did you feel your presentation expressed your passion.
Fabio: Hard for me. Went to bed at 5 am.
Dan: So, how do you want to change the world. You get all the time. You are the last speaker. What do you care about most? How do you want to change the world.
Fabio: Um. I thnk that - you don' t have all that it akes to actually change the world [snaps fingers] in a fast way. If you arre really passionate about what you do, but if you realize that your world, your house, other people have more needs than you are-- why not? It is interesting that when you do something for somebody, but you are the one getting the best of it. Giving of yourslef to somebody else. This is the first time I've had to share this with thers of the same feeling. Feel like brothers. Wish I didn't have to sleep. A very common feeling. Just want to thank you for being here. totally unexpected. Totally out of the blue. I will never forget what Dan Barry said 2-3 months ago in Brazil Make it happen. Thanks for that Dan.
Dan: Tahnk you Fabio.
Am I done.
Brad: Hard to get Dan to atlk about his passions.
Luke: Information age 2.0. How we use fractal compression.Completely not obligation.
Dan: Thanks for a wonderful day.
Plants aborb light.
Humans need information in the same way.
We use that to solve problems in our lives.
If information is the passive element, computation is what acts on it.
We have greater and greater quantities of information in the world.
Not spending time at a wet bench.
People spend entire day with \"data science\"
Salim: Health Care and the singularity
Huge need for computer science in every field we are in.
Write code- becoming most fundamental.
CS having to learn chemistry.
Physicists were always programming -- in Fortran.
- Rse of the Citizen Scientist
Down load huge datasets and analyze on personal PC.
All they need it time.
Trained via Wikipedia.
Science is going forward as never before.
Using information to do science.
How biology uses data to do almost everything.
WormBase - analysis of C. Elegans worm uploaded into one place
Can run in vivo experiments without killing it.
Now we have complete genonme.
Complete lineage is documented. When they divide.
Remarkable. Not for any other organism.
The is the beginning of the genome
Take DNA and try to find mapping - structure from sequence.
Biology is amazing database.
1000 times stars in visible universe.
30,000 cells for every base pair
Brain. 50,000: 1 per base pair.
In CS, we don't know how to achieve this.
Brain used 20W. Bigsupercomputer uses10MW.
A quadrilion times more efficient.
Brain is a remarkable computer.
Maximally compressible - detecting errors with redundance.
If compressed as much as possible, it becomes brittle.
Biology doesn't work that way - it WELCOMES mutation.
Absorb lots of mutation.
How on earth does biology achieve this/
2 - 3 rules applied randomly.
Step out, rotate left or right, starting from same point.
Each frond is copy of whole fern
Algorithmic information theory.
Digits of Pi. Hard to compress. Infinitely long.
Howevver, you can write a really small program to generate and infinte number of digits of Pi.
So if we can write programs we can achieve this kind of compression.
clear biology does this.
Embryogenesis - cascade of events.
Triggers one, then the next.
I don't belive that. Doesn't jibe with information science.
Biology would harvest such a wide variety of techniques.
What is clear, life is DNA>
We have everything - life as we know it, biology is informatoin.
Take risks to understand how biology uses informatoin.
Look toinformation theory for clues to how biology builds these structures.
Bio becoming infro sci.
Sunami of data headed our way.
Jacobsen: What algo you using to search?
The Cell Fate Tree.
Taken all cels. Mapped them on to anatomy.
: Genotype / Phenotype
A feature is part of another feature.
This big structure maps onto the cells of the body.
Which contain which cells.
FEed through ontology.
Another database - gene meta data - then pulll out genes. The promoters, the UXRs.
Then blind pattern matching.
The genes active and the cells expressed.
Look for changes between one daughter cell and a sibling.
Same, but slightly differnet.
Can't map from domain to range. Can't do machine learning.
Looking for a needle in a haystack when you don't know what a needle looks like.
You can do statistical approach here.
Same kind of thing, like google searchs.
: Found anything
Nobel prize given to worm researchers.
12 genes that cause a cell to die - part of intended growth of organism. Progrmmed cell death - apoptosis?
: Epigenetics coming on now.
Another thing just released.
3 prime ATRs at the end of the genes. How these sequences effect transcription.
Harvest all the work they did and query.
Query like that runs in 10 seconds.
Chiara: Use PCA
I'm taking data from web. 5 years, barely set foot in a wet lab.
I've beenat the computer doing biology.
Completely changing the way we do science.
Speed information is increasing is far more exponential trend.
Even, my view of the singularity - tools to digest exp quantities through limited channels.
We are already machine/human hybrids.
Exp tech will allow us.
Miguel: Role and position of information.
Place where mroe important.
What about individual variability?
OK, take - somehow different.
Luke: Really at least two major mechanisms in development.
Signalling between cells. Touches another cell, effects subtype of cell.
Vs. Cell intrinsic -information it passes to daughter.
Certain points in the tree -
See at the top. A dashed line - entire subtrees can switch.
If they happen to touch something else if they are touching.
It can exchange information with other cell.
Signalling going on.
Reason studying c. elegans. almost invariable.
Some sex dimorphism.
In general both going on - naive to think one mechanism underlying all this.
Biology is infinitely creative.
If optimal, then probably using some underlying mechanism to do a lot of things. Some kind of blueprint.
We just have to find it.
Variability - different longenvity. Difficult to say really how one - even if cell fate tree is the same - what causes one worm to live, another to die.
David: Has c. elegans group evolved?
Wormbase was first.
Point is, not so open today.
C. Elegans after they found teh genome.
Zebra fish -
More complex organism.
David Dell: C. elegans gift shop. A model
A lot of research competitive- not shared until published.
Luke: Took about 30 years to convince people this was important. Huge number - keeping close until published.
That wormbase even exisits says a lot.
Tons of different datasets.
Probably an exponential - power curve, small number contribute a lot.
Somebody had gone through 8000 scientific papers - a ridiculous amount of work.
Publishing something for someone else - sci knowledge should probably be given away.
Bio in age of information science. Huge levels of noise.
Certain things to amplify signal to noise.
Could do more double checking.
Not done enough. Be very careful
Lot of messy work.
Pareto's law -80% of content for 20% of effort.
Chiara: years matching with results.
Software that coulddo that? huge impact?
When I'm finished, put stuff out there.
"INFORMATION = EVERYTHING
philosophy is about discussion
first, information is everything
genome has root structure
tree has record in its rings, weather, age,
evil is chaos, biggest source of information
more entropy is more info
sex: lots of communication in sex (lots of information is being expressed)
stupidity: there are only two thigns that are infinite, not sure about universe. that i can't answer
single: one is the opposite of zero - it is an integer. it expresses one interger out of an infinite integers
energy: expresses everything our universe if made of
universe: it is a pattern, there are many possible patterns. anything that obeys logical rules is a pattern. time space continum. sand is a pattern. pattern is everywhere. patterns are energy
there is a thing that some people find fascinating,
PI is an irrational number (3.141....) - it never repeats. some people say that spmewhere in Pi, anything can be found. but it is posisble to have an infinite pattern of things that dont repeat that never have the string 1-0-1. but it's possible not express everything - 011001
every number in 1,2,3,4... you cna find what you are looking for
very simple logical axioms - contains all infinite information you need to have you or your favorite book in binary digits.
how do you describe infinity?
what is it?
there are no infinte things in our universe... any patterns we have in our universe is finite... this is philosophy... there are ways we can argue against it......
BUT there are an infinite Number of possible universes
the conservation principle is a driving factor for evolution for chemical bonding..... it is necessary
mathematically it is out there - if yu ahve an inifite number of time then it can be reasoned that anything in our universe is possible
continuous numbers, problems with computers, floating numbers = rounding erros
Planck lenght - more inforation more energy and finite amoutn of energy
Temperatuer of the room is teh average of all the velocities of all the aprticles of air in the room - but it is convenient of sparcity in the pattern
Do you think there is only a singular infinity?
When we are talking about infinity, we are talking about symbols on a page. for example the power set operator.... - when you have a set like all integers...... this can end up being a bigger part of infinity.
when you talk about comparing infinities......
how many odd numbers are there? 1,3,5,7.... looks like less odd than even. but you can say 2n+1, there is a correspondance like... one set with four points and one set with inifinite points, if you have one of each set compare to one of the other set, they are equal (?)
powerset operators can end up being so big that they are bigger levels of infinity, this becomes almost impossible to comprehend
countable infinity - 1,2,3,4,5...... infinity
everything that is relevant to things we use like in laws of physics or computation are
Nature of COmputation in the Brain
Cartesian dualism, mind is out somewhere in the universe, no free will
Mind brain theory - mind state is exactly the state of cells in the brain
what happens when different topologies brain and have same emotions?
state of the mind - what input output situation can you put on the brain.... can you have the same input and the same output?
Q: at the moment I don't have an output....
A: you're going through an evolution eventually and
Q: How can you talk about different brain states when it is subjective.....
A: the state of the brain is complex, it's absurd to say that you are in one emotional state alone. there may be six layers of self-reflection, tehre are diferent states at each level....
Q: how to react to everything information?
A: agree. anyhting we care about can be turned into information except for stupidity
Q: randomness? probabiltiy function may provide different results each time?
A: information content cannot be compressed. anyhting random will not be aligned with your goals. wahts there informationally, you dont know. you have some prior infromation.....
Q: what is your preferred definition of information? is everyhting information?
A: Claw Shannon (?) , technciians and philosophers that have an instrumental role in one theory or another. can't prioritize one over the other. my definition is that all informaiton is an integer
Q: practical uses of infinitiy?
Q: do people use a power set to describe a complex system?
A: complex systems like feedback, other variables you don't understand results in unpredictable behavior....
Q: differences between rational and irrational decision making?
A: rational decision making only happens when you have all the information, irrational is when you ahve allt he information and you don't make a decision
Q: What do we have between information and the real world?
A: Perception. Reality is information but we don't have access to it... we are also information ourselves....
LAST COMMENTS: thank you guys!!! clappinnggg.....
3D models are the next big thing.
Cells know if they are in a 3D dimensional world or if they are just in a 2D environment. So far almost always 2D tissue engineering has been used which does not allow to create deeper structure (eg. the structures under the top layer of the skin).
- put agar on the petri dish so cells are aggregating together
- use a centrifuge to create a 3D structure
- or use a \"drop\" to create a 3D environment
But all of those are \"fake\" 3D models
Perfusion = forcing the nutrients through the system. This is how a perfusion bioreactor works.
Those systems allow to create tissues in the lab. Currently only tissues can be engineered like that but organs are not possible yet.
Skin can be produced like that.
Peripheral nerves have been engineered already.
This process is used to grow cells that need to adhere to something. Blood cells for example dont have to adhere to something. Skin cell have to adhere to something.
It is not known yet what mixture can be best used to accelerate the growth of the tissue in the reactor.
How do you specialize the tissue?
- It depends on the mixture of the bioreactor.
- Depends on what cells are close to the cell.
Drug testing and models for researach labs are paractical applications.
Less than five years to until the process works well. The bottleneck is some still missing research and the funding for that.
There are protocols for each different tissue that are engineered. Thosse regulates the right substrates and mixtures.
Vincent on Investment Banking:
Our economy would not work without banks, want to give a little insight about banking first, then banking more specifically
it's important because without banks nothing would work
What's a coroporate? how do busineses make money? produce and sell good. banks work differently. (sorry, disconnected)
Banks can make money by varying the length of their lending.
if you lend money short term (daily turnover) and put it into long term investment.
if you look at a bank, asset side (where you invest) and the liability side (where you get your deposit from) and there you have the equity, where investments put the money. they also have a leverage effect. you can play with 12 times as much money as is investment. what i didnt say before. the bank can play with how much they pay the person who gives them the money and how much they charge the person they lend to, and how long the loan is for. two types of money: 1. someone who puts it in the bank as an investment 2. risk free, you can take it out whenever
one is risky (you might not get your money back) if you buy shares and give me 10% as a commission, th bank doesn't take risks.
the bank can also do their own business or client business (lending is usually their own, transaction for client is the clients' business) there are a lot of different banks, private, asset managers, if they dont do other buesiness it's risk free.
you have the classical banksm, retail bank, which you go to to do anything you need (and individual) the commercial does the same with institutions
then you have investment banking - basically can do anything a calssical does but a different focus
one side - mergers and acquistions and advisory - a company wants to sell a business and comes to us, and we will manage the whole process. who you should talk to, who would be interested, what the value of the bsuienss is. we're also intermediaries. we build competitions. No risk business for bank. we advise and take a percentage of transaction volume, usually 1-2% of the volume. very lucrative. also a business that takes time, but we do a lot of it for free, trying to convinceclient to take look into other business, etc.
other side - trading, markets. this is what's shown on tv, huge floor with traders. this is where risk is.
one side is for clients, no risk, we sell and buy for clients; other is our own books, our own money.
like goldman sachs, started out M&A, but not almost all comes from trading
M&A is all confidential, because itaffects values of companies, so we can't communicate with the trading sight. tradign is all public information.
you have two more areas: capital markets deal with IPOs(both inside and outside)
last: research, only public information. publish papers valuing public companies, try to find out what's a good share to buy,e tc.
some investment banks have private banking again, some have inernal hedge funds. in the end an nvestment bank can literally engage in any business.
how are bankers paid? there's a differentiation. there's a guy in the bank you go to, and he gets paid like anyone else. then there's i-bankers, get a nice baseline, but majority comes from bonus, it can be 300% of base salary. Incentive system is a bit skewed, there's no risk takin here, but in trading, if you take risk and succeed, you can have a huge bonus; if you fail, you get fired, but risk is getting no bonus or huge bonus but no negative - you don't pay when you fail.
now regulators are tryign to align global economy's interest with the bank. youtube: the crisis of credit visualized. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oosq3TPgHH0
Q:Doesn't M&A have own investiagtion:
A: it's advisory, it's the first access point for a client. if they want anything, they go there. M&A is confidential. that's called insider trading.
Q: talk about leverage?
A: I started with that. basically assets is where you put your money liability is where you get it. You make money through the spread. leverage is what the multiple of assets times equity. the largest assets are in comparison to equity, the more risky your position is.
Q: money is printed by private banks and lent to state (zeitgeist) - the backstage is very huge mechanism that defines how we innovate
A: the FED prints money, the bank might do the printing but can't print whatever they want. we can lend assets to anyone, you, companies, gov't bonds (that' what happened in greece, and now they might not get their money back)Q: but central bank owned by private banks A: i'm not sure that's true. this is the first time I heard this
Q: it's true, zeitgeist claims european banks owned the banks, but that's not true; the other claim is any bank cannot print unless FED regulates it but FED itself is private; A: the FED is obviously spearate from govt on the govt would keep lending lending lending the purpose of FED is to keep money a stable value; that's t (KEEPS CRASHING SORRY)
Santiago Bilinkis - Buisness Intellignece - the Perfect Computer Costomer Interface
Wasn't planning on doing a presentation - created a large office supply company Officenet, studeid economics, not business - don't really believe in theory of business. Wanted to pass on some useful lessons learned to start up a company.
If you are starting up a company, you can lease the most powerful computer for $600/month with no downpayment - would you use it? Add - this supercomputer has nearly perfect voice recognition....this computer also has AGI! That computer is called an Argentinian!! They can be leased for $600/month!!
When his company was acquired by Staples - his company had 700 people (Staples looked at him like he was crazy for having sooo many people) he found that to be lunacy!
If you can employ HQP that is key!
First piece of advice: use people! people are great!
Is impressed how strongly Staples employee's sophisticated systems to replace people...
1. His company sold over the phone (1997) so even if he had a website, orders came phone or fax, the internet started have more and more orders...after 10 years, 50% of orders came over phone - what did they do? use half the people? NO When customers talk to someone, they are MUCH more loyal! if they wanted to convince for upsales...used people! All of the online orders were followed up with personalized phone calls. Most people in business think to automize and minimize peope - Santiago worked to COMBINE business intelligence with people. The perfect customer/computer interface has a person in between!
- Officenet - he used to do a demo where he would call a customer service line and after two rings a human would answer (not an aan automated operator) - it was a human being ready to assist. Whenever he has to call to a call centre, whenever they pick up the phone he says the amount of time he's been waiting (10min) they also say too much volume, phone call traffic...etc...total excuses!! Purely an economical decision because you can predict volumes!!
2. People are a great piece of hardware but they are no good without software. He found out in his experience that few companies use business intelligence! IF each of us go to Amazon.com, those guys are the best in teh world at business intellingence. So he has been focussing on using business intelligence in his business (Staples didn't), give the buisness intelligence tools to the employee's. You must give them instructions.
ie) every account manager handles 200 accounts so the customers can be known. Told each agent to optimize the customer portfolio (very abstract challenge), expected them to extract all the money from their clients Called customers who left a vm, who had a birthday, who according to algorithms could be taken to the competiton....also remember that all customers are not created equal (some worth more, etc...) so that is essential to optimize!
- so created an agenda system, person 1 for this reason, person 2 for this reason...they created the prioritization system - actionable items! Very precise instructions! People are relieved and far less anxious!
- used to have the managers enter the account managers into the system, and for some reason had a small book where they kept the numbers and the data base would deteriorate - so what did they do? they developed a system where the only way to dial and call a customer was using a computer system - so if any phone number or email was wrong, they couldn't communicate with the customer. Resulted in a perfect database, as well as accurate tracking system of performance!!
- use people and business intelligence to utilize within the company to help your employee's.
- you also have to put the right incentives in place - everyone in the company (CEO to receptionist) has a significant portion of the salary that is incentive based to reward work. This is totally uncommon within Argentina!
- Believes there is no better way to enforce your priorities than to pay people for them.
- most peope really cared about making an extra buck - so a very powerful motivational and aligning tool. You have to be careful because you get what you reward, and if you don't reward the right things, you can create monsters!!
- had some months with weird results because the commission scheme wasn't correct - don't be afraid of trying or changing.
- You need to reward both productivity and quality variables!!!
- Staples ended up measuring clients in a different manner than his company did - they called a random selection of 60 and would only ask 1 question - he was very concerned on how it was going to go. The first time the survey happened, they recieved 50% which Staples wanted to 65% minimum, last month left with a score of 81$ (4/5 customers gave a 5/5) so ultimatley, his score ended up being higher than Staples could achieve.
Q) Said people are cheaper than computers - was that initially based on a calculation or what drove that? No formal calculation, believed that they were trying to get rid of people too much. The Board of Directors rewarded for profitability - so as long as they could prove and maintain that - then the model worked.
Q) Did you consider outsourcing the call centre's to other geographic locations? Absolutely not, having control of your processes, tools, etc....every system that was used was developed custom - because he believed that's what the key was. Every user interface was developed around key elements specific to the business model (put a lot of brains into that).
Q) following the value chain - what was outsourced? The only thing to outsource because of legality was the delivery fleet, hired a service to put a van in the door every day and control where that goes. The magic is to have total control of your process.
Q) Do you already know your next challenge? No - not sure if its business, always fascinated by science and tech, Officenet was a chance to build the opportunity to do what he wants...much tougher than he imagined it would be. He's trying to change his life and unsure which direction to go.
Basically all of these technologies head to zero cost, below 100$ for test. what is geentic testing? disese susceptibility, carrier testing, response to medication, nutrigenetic testing, ancestry, paternity, tissue compatibility
what are success stories? tay sachs? prevalence 1971 - 1/3 american jews 2010: ~0%!!
adverse drug reaction: long standing and largely neglected medical problem; even if doctos do eveything the way we should (we don't always know what will happen) but with the knowledge of pharmacogenetics we can avoid this
4th leading cause of death in US!! ADRs a modern epidemic. In the future this will be preventable, knowledge growing exponentially.
Your DNA affects your response to drugs. DNA test can tell you if drugs are: 1. safe and 2. effective for your body
One size fits all is still the approach of pharmaceutical companies, and this is just not the case. theapeutical dose is between toxic dose and effective dose. person A inherited two genes that means this person can't metabolize this medication,a nd it becomes toxis (side effects of death), B, this medication is good for them, C, has one defective copy, and D has too many copies and his body metabolizes the med too fast, so he needs a much higher doses.
solution? pharmacogenetic testing? tests of genetic variations that code for enzymes that metabolize drugs
RIGHT NOW: we have capability to test for 80% of tprescribed medications.
5.5% of medications that are prescribed shouldn't be prescribed at all, because they inhibit enzymes (?)
example, 20% of breast cancer patients die because of a medicinal side effect because their pharmacogenetics weren't considered.
Q: what's your company called?
A: Gene planet. I think in the next couple of months slovania will make it widely available and covered by insurance. sold for 100 euros.
Q: why is it not done for everybody if the costs are small compared to a bone marrow?
A: you have a BM registry, and you have 5000 volunteers, they only test 2000 of these, because they don't have money
Working on project for summers of '06 '07 '10.
Interactive nurse. Provide discharge - mmedications and diagnosis.
Point of project is to decrease returns to the hospital.
Contribution was to script the agent with empathy.
Q: Mirror neurons
Feelings from their point of view.
Sometimes a skill or feeling.
First used in early 20th century by psychotherapists.
Studies have shown empathy lessens patient distress.
Better clinical outcomes.
Questions - no sure-fire way to measure.
Unclear if empathy can be taught.
There are empathic opportunity.
Any time a person
\"How are you\"
\"Not so great ...\"
Third, give a statement of understanding.
\"Oh, how come?\"
\"My elbow hurts.\"
I understand. I'm sorry to hear that. - including touch to elbow.
Self touch is partof non-verbal empathy.
Verbal is really important.
Well, I geuss you gotta live with what you got.
Lasso effect - get someone to tell all their bad emotions, respond with large empathy.
Computer's don't ave emotions.
Can we code it?
Often hard to model.
Positive things to build on - we empathize with Nemo.
People assign person-like characters to computers.
The computer can be a woman, or of a certain race.
Although computers can't test feelings they can detect autonomic -
high heart rate
Still really simple tests.
Computer on a blackjack game - if heart rate goes up, blackjack deal gives empathy.
Statistically significant rright now.
We can still code certain empathic bahaviors.
Quote \"We can't define Everest precisely. But Hilary climbed it.\"
NIH and ARC funded.
Q: : There is a theory by Marshal Rosenberg. Empathic guesses. Are you fearful? Are you scared? Then it would know.
Our nurse does that.
Q: Facial postures. Some people want answers. Some just want someone to be empathic.
Both empathy and what should I do.
It has both actually. The nurse in trials now is doing both.
Also comparing with and without.
Q: Emma: problems/ limitations. Don't want hug when I feel ill.
Computers don't feel emotion, but having a bit helps.
Sometimes it can backfire totally.
It can lose all credibility.
Q: The uncanny valley.
John's speech recognizer brings that up in me.
May really turn people off.
Nurse is 2D. 3D is freaky. No one wants to replace the human nurse.
Biosensors will make it all different. Really big.
One now is touch screen, not voice recognition.
Q: on discharge. Or something to discharge WITH. Robonurse to answer questions as they come up.
So the \"Louise\" beta version. On-line Louise can be on mobile phones. For 30 days Window for people to go back to hospital.
Q: Neat way to get feedback to doctor.
If emergencies, human nurse if flagged. Just that would be really helpful.
As a research team, we've all had to sign form. We can see history.
We can also publish, but anonymized.
Q: Compare results of reactions to Lousie, vs chat.
Not video or voice.
Concern with elderly.
Targe is Low (income?) group.
Excluded people with dementia.
Q: What about the robot option.
Some cute thing that is 3D and can touch.
Hard to empathize with person you are taling to.
Try to build a little robot. Something you could take away.
Ask about side effect.
Q2: Would just be cute things.
Q: Not humanoid. Not a lifesize nurse.
Don't want to confuse people.
We want to save physician time.
5:45 Ethics of Transhumanism - Emma Brooke
- Individual enhancement and expanding tech.
- when we get to a point where we can consider ourselves poost human
Transhumanism - \"the worlds most dangerous idea\"
The most idealistc, brave, adventurous thing we can do
Ideas of super powers and human enhancement go all the way back to the beginning of recorded hirstory
but as it becomes real the debate gets heated
Morality is based on history, this is changing the nature of ehtics and getting into predicting
1. Genetic Divide - The potential divide between those who have genetic enhancements and those who don't, two tied society could be created if political reform can't keep up. Could be elements of domination and control. People trying to catch up : black market
2. Frankenstein - manufacturing as monsters, clones, subhumans, chimaeras
Issac Asimov - provided there are self aware clones and subhumans we are all people deserving of rights
but there could be human racism based on yuck factor
3. Eugenics - conjurs up bad thoughs of nazis; essentially creating super people becomes possible.
Transhumanist societites don't think this will happen but neither did the germans
4. Playing God
Could elimnate suffering but does suffering give us our humanity?
5. Fountain of Youth
- Self indulgent power fantisies, obsession with youth and physical perfection, development of materialism and consumerism
- Though the idea of living on after death has been very human since our beginnings
6. Trivialism of humanity
- If we don't have negative consequences this too might detract from what it means to be human
- Some cultures consider being techno-phobes as more spiritual
- Alternatively with more abilites we can achieve more awareness in a deeper way that we don't yet understand
- Offers no search for that, we are assumign we know what's best instead od looking for higher truth and could lead to a post modern sinicism
- Goes against period of scientific breakthroughs that makes us more introspective spiritually
what are the ethics for stopping people from doing this
- eventually you find humanity has a necrophilia of sorts
- to limit these is to limit freedom
what exactly is humanity?
- perhaps once you manipulate free will we are no longer ourselves
"11:30 am - 11:55 am: John Graves: Power Tools
Went to link:
Discussion of software tools to enable
1/ Idea Gathering
2/ Idea Processing
3/ Idea Presenting
Explained and demonstrated how to create Wiki page within Singularity U.
Showed Wikipedia history page
Demonstrated Transcribe! - listening to video at double speed and creating transcript
SU has unlimited license
Demonstrated Prezi (via movie made with Screenflow)
Showed Concept Map
Demonstrated Animoto - makes slick music video with transitions
12:00 m - 12:25 pm: Julielynn Wong: Medicine
Connor: we are allowed to eat raw oysters.
People need to be on calorie restricted diet.
Policy makers want to help us, but it could be draconian.
JW: Global mortality advances have been in public health.
Seat belts. More people die in traumatic accidents. Way more than HIV/AIDS. Poor signage.
It is crazy to sit in a bus in the 3rd world.
Surgical issues are hard.
Dr. Kraft here.
Brad: IPhone. WebMD
JW: Up-to-date by subscription
How good is it?
Connor: just a drug listing
Daniel Kraft: takes you away from paper based things. Lot more depth. Describe pill, overdosed. You can search.
Hypocrates made for physicians.
Brad: AI Physician on your phone. Where are we on that?
JW: Just looking for that. Stanford library access would be great.
Sasha: Preventative care.
Kraft: New iPhone 4 has a scanner. Did my first face time last night.
Jose: still have 11 min.
JW: Specific what aspect of preventative care?
Sasha: Not life sciences. Diet and nutrition. What are biggest barrier about way people eat?
JW: Obesity is a pandemic, in a sense. Developing countries moving away from natural diets.
Not a question of individuatl choice. Perception is that fat is due to laziness.
Jose: Not in India - there, if fat = wealthy.
JW: Not much money in preventative health. Driven by outcomes.
If you prevent obeseity then no one sees it. If you save someone after a heart attack, then that is counted as something.
Starts before you are born.
Ban on soft drinks in schools - good thing.
No grocery stores in some parts of some cities.
You are right, it needs to be addressed.
Kraft: incentives are all mis-aligned. Doc is paid for procedures.
No time or tools. Referral to nutritionist doesn't happen.
If alignments are wrong, 20 CTMI scanners - still have bad health.
Get people to pay more attention to their own health
Jose: Want to be part of the medical team for the SU team in the San Francisco Marathon on Sunday July 25th to have fun before, during and after. about 10 people will at least run.
JW: May do 5K.
Jose: A few will do half marathon
Lunch after this. Come back at 2.
Connor: We all know about serious legistlation that cracked down on tobacco.
Beverage cos are worried they will be next.
They have been talking about this for years internally.
Not seen strong action from policy makers.
Nothing to change recipes.
High fructose corn syrup.
JW: Still perception that obseity is \"their fault\"
Link between addiction and food choice not as clear as with tobacco.
People can overdose with Tylanol. Most often used means of suicide.
Causes liver failure.
You can prevent suicides by manufacturing Tylanol with antidote included - so you can't overdose.
My guess: it is cheaper to use high fructose.
/Italy: Heavy metal toxicity?
How spread? How prevent? How cure?
JW: I'm not a toxicologist - that would be their field.
Arsenic is a heavy metal. Big problem in Bangladesh.
In grand scheme of things, that would not be a high thing.
It looms large. Bizarre. People don't know much about it.
Enough safeguards that it is a low risk, at least in US.
Preventable diseases are things to worry about.
Luxiourious lifestyle afflictions.
Sasha: What are more recent trends that are new?
JW: Still in training
Standard stuff - life expectancy in US is quite good.
Maternal mortality - fixed.
Conditions related to lifestyle - coronary, ...
Nice thing about being in this crowd is people taking ownership of health
Wish I had motivated patients like you
Sasha: Can you prescribe?
JW: Can get some antibiotics.
Do have license to practice, but not in this state.
Jose: Thank you. Be with us at the marathon.
12: 30 pm - 2:00 pm: LUNCH BREAK
2:00 pm - 2:25 pm: Juan Martinez-Barea: A Vision to Change the World Through Leadership and Education
2:30 pm - 2:55 pm: Erez Livneh: VECOY to Treat HIV - AIDS like It's Never Been Done Before
3:00 pm - 3:25 pm: Shary Niv: A Bit on the Science of Happiness
3:30 pm - 3:55 pm: Mike Chen: Viral Marketing and Starting a Company with $0
4:00 pm - 4:15 pm: COFFEE BREAK
4:15 pm - 4:40 pm: John Graves: Beyond Sixth Sense
TED talk: http://www.ted.com/talks/pattie_maes_demos_the_sixth_sense.html
Check also: www.loquendo.com and www.prezi.com
Stephen Wolfram and his book \"A New Kind of Science\".
Open Allure: http://groups.google.com/group/open-allure-ds and http://code.google.com/p/open-allure-ds/
4:45 pm - 5:10 pm: Dhaval Chadha - Julian Ugarte: Business to Overcome Poverty (Exponentially)
This is peru. People don't initially trust doctors
Trust faith healers
They speak the local language
start in big cities - this is Cusco
What about the future
Cheap access to knowledge and education
Including medical care
Mobile phones and
information - exp price performace
2 bn don't have access to surgery
Farmer in Niger - access to cheap surgery via tele robot
In future, autonomous robot.
Patient tool - find costs of symptoms
More accurate diagnostics
We are in the early stages of having lots of information
Not always for the insurance companies
If AI tech becomes cheaper,
In conclusion AI + medicine can bring healthcare to billions
A very wothwhile pursuit.
Salim: Let's ask what you guys thought?
[faculty consult outside]
Susan: Main things:
Good eye contact.
Don't talk too fast.
SJP: Don't stand in front of the projector.
Salim: The way we are grading
I just want to get peer feedback.
What did you think of Javier's? [applause]
Q: How do you measure impact?
So, you've seen Ray and Peter. Peter has higher impact.
Does the presentation come out and grab the audience.
A new generation of entrepreneurs
Everybody wake up
[Will this go by itself?]
Salim: Start again
New wave of what entre will become
What really is entre?
Starting a co
Things are changing
Our gen thinks differently
It is a mind set
Belief that you can solve a problem
How we are solving problems
This gen has more power to change world than any previous one
You know, \"Doing well while doing good\"
Doing well BY doing good
Communication has enabled us to work around the world.
Sarah in AU
Look at energy $120 b market [in US?]
Change the way society functions
US Spend $750 bn on education
One student sold co for $1.4 m [who?]
Health care $2 T
We are going to be the forefront.
What else is next gen responsible for?
Non-profit driven by entre.
State dept taken over by us
Nice quote from Hilary Clinton
What countries stay friends, which become enemies
People from around the world can meet virtually
US / China /India
China & India will overake US in Global GDP
When they beat the US and Europe
suddenly we can't control where things go
We've been lucky to be only superpower
How do we solve problems?
Start companies in China / Europe same time
Create communication, no gap
That's what I do every day with Kairos Society.
Not the politicians
Brought 600 students to NY Stock Exchange
100 cos showcased on trading floor
Intrepid Aircraft carrier
Global sourcing / Global trade
We are all now leaders.
Solve global problems we all have.
[faculty consult outside]
- Is Asimo Growing Up?
This is the story of a small retarded robot
He had a hard upbringing
Six years after his release.
Asimo attempted steps and fell on his head.
Audience did not laugh.
They felt Empathy.
Slowly over time, he was able to run, while making turns.
See edges of the floor.
Here he is dodging between papers.
Reporter trying to fool Asimo.
Showing him new toys
Pace of learning is accelerating.
Same learning in one year as in last 8.
We scan human brains.
Ability has doubled every year
See how brain works
Put into robot, make them more intelligent.
This I thought was a photoshop.
Asimo conducts orchestra
Asimo's future may not be human directed.
Future that they create may be different.
They may not do the things we expect them to do
What happens when they pursue their own interests?
Are we OK with that?
Speak to other robots more than they like speaking to us?
We have a hard time relating
They may want to hurt us.
Future of robots can and will -
Robots in a way have already killed humans.
Robots are used to track terrorists
They can also save humans
Save people hurt by bomb.
When device broken, wanted it fixed, not replaced.
Different from us. OK with that?
Things will not be as we expect.
Evolution has prepared us for that.
When we grow up, we do things different than our parents.
Even when robots are doing different things than we wanted them to do
we can still be proud of them.
[faculty consult outside]
- Urban Dynamics in the 21st Century
Today I'd like to talk about
basically, 4 things happening
Certainly exponential changes
So, today, I'm going to tell you -
treaty of Westfalia.
Integral nation state.
Picture of the security council
Focus on nation state, get beyond that paradigm.
We think on nation level.
Get you to think on city level
This alone is a powerful nation state
NY, Tokyo > nations.
1991 the global city proposed looking at just population
looking at service firms.
Take largest service firms, connections
How big a city is
Gray dots, width of black line connects cities
Number of offices
Exhibits between museum
Buzz on that city, searches
Easier to datamine
These are the connections
So this is the current state of the world.
tons of think tanks. NY / London. Then Tokyo /Paris
Rate of change who is at top
Two or one city at the top
Hierarchy - converge on urban geography - London
Exp change in how we look.
Blue is urban, red is rural
Ideological and cultural. Number voted, color Dem/Rep
This is not a united country.
Population is not commensurate with ranking.
GDP / capita - divergent.
That was in 2005.
2050 not much better.
More in global hierarchy.
Differences in global north and south quite pronounced.
[faculty consult outside]
GMP is the new GDP
Gross Metropolitan Product
11:15 Salim: so what we can do now.
Other rooms are giving direct feedback after each session.
Unfair to early presenters.
Who wants to go first.
: Then people in afternoon have an advantage.
: It is about learning
: Speaking fast.
Susan: Great eye contact, slides. One slide was small type.
To what extent does presentation come out and grab the audience.
Salim: Steve: bouncing around intellectually. Main thrust? Where do exp come in? Excellent presentation style. Really good eye contact.
Need to make main point early.
Great potential as a speaker.
Susan: walked into the projector.
Salim: Ronen: Little lost on what presentation was about.
Missed sense of exp tech. How world will change.
What is the \"It\"
You speak a little softly. You are looking at screen. Use laptop.
Walking around a bit too much.
Presentation lacked a bit of zing.
Susan: with mic, would have been louder.
: Other comments?
4-5 bullet points per person. Dozen.
Steve: Comment. Not done this. Look at the laptop screen rather than screen. Voice toward audience.
Salim: Michael. Content was very good. Good attempt to see.
How will customers be impacted. Got supply, not demand.
Reading off the slides.
Cadence of voice was steady. Vary a little more.
Emotional level of talk should vary.
We are being extra harsh in an environment that is extra difficult.