Particularly thin film. First solar. 80 cents a watt.
Nano and organic may be even cheaper. Lot of innovation. Cusp of big change.
George: Gulf will awaken public. Need ethical, environmentally sound solutions.
Charles: Amount of water to make silicon wafers is huge. Lots of energy. Computer chips, displays. If you could grow the structures, that would alleviate 80% of energy impact.
Kate: GIS - Geographic Information Systems can really help.
Robert: As economic/technology sector, has become most dynamic. Lots of sectors in the economy. Many floundering. Sustainable energy is going to take great innovation.
Jim: Who leads in this will reap the benefits.
China's command/control is starting to move fast on clean tech.
Makes for a fascinating race.
Q: Mike Chen/USA: Great talks. Energy to developing countries. Gap between power have/have not?
Charles: Policy drives it. Makes things possible. As inventors, simpler is better.
You can buy this at the local hardware store. Put this in remote parts of the world.
Access to education, power, situation can change.
A: Kate. Tricky question of have/have not. If you treat energy access as a social good - the drive in US. You can't price at market prices. Becomes unsustainable.
Some countries have shifted to cost-recovery tarriffs.
That is the tradeoff.
A: Current regulatory situation - huge challenges. Insurability (?) must prove to be as reliable as old technology.
Advantage to developing countires.
SME means \"Small and Medium-sized Enterprise\"
In both situations, financing issues. Incredibly high up front costs. Particularly renewable.
We build natural gas quickly because they ae financeable.
Berkeley has their \"PACE?\" model. That model is needed everywhere.
World is much flatter. Right technology is the same everywhere.
High dynamic will dominate.
Solve big energy problems .
Figuring out how to finance the best technology will be the ultimate solution.
Q: Denmark. Microfinancing. What are the hard issues. Who are the goverments/organizations to work with?
Kate: As far as microfinance - it works, but not in all cases. Seasonal. How to make different installments. Standard model needs to be adapted to environment.
Innovation is needed to figure out payment plans esp in rural areas as incomes are seasonal.
Won't say which are good, which not.
Jim: Microfinance has not transitioned into SMEs.
Small Medium Enterprise.
Kate: End of the line lighting. No payback built in.
Charles: General hydroponics. Low cost aquaponics. Some models don't work. Others do. Wrap model around the technology.
Financing at household level. Had a model for cost recovery - money on kerosene spent on solar instead.
With new LED lighting, a lot cheaper. Significantly.
Solar in 90's 4-500 dollars. At most half could afford even with financing.
Bogo light. Manufactured, $10. Many more can afford. http://www.bogolight.com/
Drip irrigation in West Africa - helping women generate income.
Solar market garden return on investment in 2-3 years.
Growing food and selling it to the local market. Higher prices in cities.
Working with women collectives (35 women). Drip irrigation system costs $25,000. With microfinance, it will be to group that collectively payback over time. They can pay back over 2.3 years.
That is not microfinance anymore.
Jim: Heifer out of Little Rock. Started with giving goat/cow tor family. Now they need dairies to keep milk cold - - using renewable energy.
Gates gave $45 million. To scale up in two countries.
Q: Sherry/US. Future forecast - one primary approach or integrative?
Let a 1000 flowers bloom.
Saul: About 4 flowers. We know the total resource assessment. Solar / Wind / Nuclear and Fusion are exceptions
Peak uranium by mid century.
Jim: I believe chaos and emergent behavior.
George: I think there is power in energy diversity.
Charles: Diversity is the key to evolutionary systems. Recognize \"perpetual morphology of evolution\" [whew!]
Solar oxide fuel cells. Present, not marketed yet. 60% efficient system running on methan. Produces hydrogen.
60% is extremely good.
Solar is 25% efficiency.
Charles: Helium 3. Low cost fusion systems. Pathway to mining of asteroids.
Next big thing will be strategic minerals. If those minerals are not available, it will all stop.
I believe answer is in space.
George: Diversity of sources. Less popular ideas need funding now to see where this goes. Not just the ones with buzz.
Charles. If we give 1/2 a trillion to banks, which is better investment.
Q: Jason Dunn/ Florida: 96% of power gen is turbine. Why?
George: Take a look at Tesla Turbine. Simple thing to build, had almost no study. Deserves more.
Saul: Fascinating question. Linear regression models. Crudest method.
First derivative of slope and extrapolate.
A lot of just historical laziness.
Second reality, all of large scale plants are financed for 30-50 years.
Coal plant life is 60+ years. Lots of inertia in system. Still paying off financing side.
You need to change the way we finance things. Can sort of ignore forecasts.
Any carbon cap is not in model.
If you believe we will have response to it,
Charles: Dubious of carbon cap.
Economic models are grid-required, grid-dependent.
What about models that are opt-in?
I say no. We are at cusp where a centralized system could be replaced by diversified, decentralized or even [home systems]
Q: Eugine/France. Smart grid implementation?
Saul: \"Smart grid\" genie is out of the box. Like \"Nanotech\" is a marketing word.
We put in 1400gW into grid. Deliver about 440gW. We operate at about 30% efficency.
Smart grid can effect a bit.
Can help utilities iron out inconsistencies.
Power demand goes up and down all day.
Lots of people looking at putting power back on the grid.
George: California Prop 16. Almost had situation where Marin utility provides lines, but can buy power from whereever. If you are producing more power through your solar, wind and can give back, you are not compensated, unless you are in Marin. Hope more of these CCAs will pop up.
[Community Choice Aggregators (CCAs)]
Model where home energy system resupplies grid.
Q: Diva/Italy: Solar.
A: We've talked about PV. What about solar thermal. Luce International. Parabolic troughs heating tubes full of oil. Taken off in big way in American Southwest
On large scale, solar thermal is cheaper than PV -- for now (with innovations on thin films, that could change). PV can work in low light conditions. Building roofs, roadways. Much more diverse.
PV can go anywhere. Solar thermal is capital intensive and large scale by nature.
Another company - Bright source. Heliotowers. Molten salt to store the energy. Still get power in cloudy weather.
Charles: About scale and application.
Konarka - Clothing that is a solar collector. Tents. - http://www.konarka.com/
Jim: Still prototype.
Charles: At other end, liquified sodium ...
Favorite - solar system in space. Turbine, microwave energy beamed to Earth.
Saul: PV and solar thermal. PV will asymptote at 40%.
20w per square meter. Need to cover double every road. That is end result of going 100% solar. Not sure you want to give up that much land area.
Land area use - I have a map which puts fuels on US map. Covering 20% of landmass with clean energy solution.
Think PV versus solar thermal. Can do learning curve selling small units. High cost.
ST is big, expensive machines. 10s to 100s of mW. Which wins will be a finacial question.
Kate: PV can go anywhere. ST is extremely limited for siting. Land is not free. Sometimes highly contested.
George: Intelligent passive solar design of buildings.
Jim: General question. Also want to be thinking about where can we stretch our imaginations 5-10 years from now.
Existing Solar thermal facility in SoCal: http://www.esolar.com/
Q: Alaidinne / Abu Dhabi: Robert, which will dominate?
Q: For Saul: availability of source - wind vs solar. Not efficiency?
Saul: That was my arguement. I wasn't trying to say wind was the total answer.
Planning 100 years out, we have to plan for technologies.
Put most coins in bucket for solar. 4th is biofuels.
If I was divvying out the resource dollars ...
Some have intolerable land use.
One nuclear reactor is a gW.
Jim: Question back to questioner. Work as NASCAR (?) Tell us your experience there.
Alaidinne: Experience was unique. Conditions are different from other parts of world. Gather every technology and assess it in Abu Dhabi. At same time, adapt to our conditions.
Humidity, other conditions are different in US.
PV plants in 10 mW ... now 100 mW, trying to build 2 gW.
Saul: Homework is to draw on map 1 terraW.
If you take a piece of land 10 miles by 10 miles in Nevada, covered with solar cells, could generate enough power for entire US.
Saul: Provably wrong.
Charles: Wouldn't use silicon. We're going to run out of it.
American Superconductor. Highly conductive wires.
Must match with costs.
Not easy to manufacture solar cells.
To answer your question,
Jim: 20 minutes more. [5:16]
Crystaline technology dominant now. Thin films will dominate. Cheap, non-toxic. Can be deployed anywhere.
Charles: bio-films are great, but less efficient. If you want different density, or solar thermal ... mix and match approach.
Q: Eric - subsitutining present consumption. Some consume 10x less.
Most profitable way to go about it - decrease need for energy.
Blocks of houses that produce more energy than they use.
Like the internet.
Applies to rich countries.
A: Charles. Depends on definition of smart grid. My definition is selling back.
Favorite example, in Czech Republic. Cement is 1/10th weight of normal cement because styrofoam is mixed in.
Make houses that cost less, yet still comfortable.
Everybody should be able to sell back to grid.
Jim: Drivers 55 mph. Tried to legislate that. Can't just dictate efficiency. We need to do both.
Kate: Demand side management. No one has mentioned McKenzie ????
I'm installing solar on my roof. Only reason is the unbelievably high incentives.
Tax payers are subsidising my PV system.
Saul: [at white board]
Assume 20% solar. Transmission at 80%. 250 x .2 x .8
US demand is terraW. So you need 1000 km square.
Toby: It is 100 by 100 miles.
Take Nevada Solar One -
Saul: not sure that is true.
300 km on side.
Saul: definitely NOT 10. Be super careful. 3.6 tW. Delivered 400 mW.
Constant used watts and per square meter of land.
Q: Candice / Canada. Energy and very expensive infrastructure I know well. Power far from load centers. Localized credits? Alternative supplies integration?
Charles: May be a technology specific question. May not be an exact answer.
George: Question to Saul - tranportation energy? 3.6 tW is all primary energy consumed measured at source. If you went to all electric transport, it is 1/3 of 3.6. It would go to 3 tW instead of 3.6 if you could magically convert.
You could argue that only 2 tW if ideally efficient.
China will want more energy. What we give up, they will consume.
How can the rate payer subsidize equipment?
We don't really have mechanism. You can voluntarily pay for schemes.
Not many people will throw in 10,000 dollars to go in on local system.
Q: Sweden. Out of the box. Sustainable cities. Teams looking at different ways.
One team looked at mechanical energy - people and transport movements.
A: Charles. Berkeley - scavenger energy harvesting. On stairways, walkways to capture energy.
Elastomeric material. Not much gain for cost of installing things.
Sensors can be run by scavenger systems.
Some specific systems, but not tW to run grid. Might be useful to run system.
Saul: E-mails which make me irrate. Forbes - completely wrong. Majority of wasted energy goes into heat. 1-2%. Never expect it to do more than power sensor for cat door.
Money put on that is wasted capital.
Charles: lot of waste heat. What about infrared volatic.
Saul: Einstein showed - rectena system could get to 80%. Reality is we can make at cents per mile. Diodes need to be much better.
Nano diodes under development.
Jim: Solexant. http://www.solexant.com/
Q: David/US. Two technologies: MIT micro turbine. Toshiba nuclear on liquid lithium 6 small enough to fly on airplane.
Charles: would not want to be on ground when nuclear plane crashes.
Saul: Worked with microturbines project. Great idea. Efficiency is proportional (Carnot efficiency) to range of temperature. Not that much higher. Microgeneration is fantastic. But what fuels.
What portion of global land mass do you want to give up to grow your fuels?
Saul: Stewart Brand is huge fan of micro nuclear. US Navy has 50 mW 100mW reactors with great safety record.
Would need thousands. How could you secure so many reactors?
Jim: Wired magazine articles. Baby nukes. Thorium nukes. Fuel supposed to be less toxic.
Kate: One of the challenges at low income scale, you can't take a lot of technology risk. Most are undercapacity for electricity. You don't want to try experiments.
There may be place for technology risk. Much easier in US.
Charles: no flying nukes.
Optimizing design passively
Kate: I think there are game changer technologies out there, but in the meantime a lot of attention needs to be paid to the regulatory and financing side of things.
Charles: Proteomic construction kits. If you can grow the materials and grow them around on nano scale -- that's the big win.
George: Find ways to make it affordable and clean. Major factor in what happens to our civilization.
Robert: We have solutions today to end energy poverty in the world.
Close to 2 bn people to store vaccines, or pump water, that is inexcusable.
Good news is that there are some steps forward.
Energy as a Human Right.
UN has recognized error they made in leaving out energy.
World Energy Outlook will include universal access chapter.
Bring existing solutions to bear.
Saul: Ending energy poverty. Set of aesthetic choices and compromises.
When you draw line between have and have nots.
5-600 watts per person in some places.
If you pick lowest \"tolerable\" energy use, there are still 150 countries under it.
We need to price carbon.
Don't have hope that renewables will beat coal unsubsized.
If you want a reasonable climate world
heat engine that doesn't use water
break laws of physics.
Jim: Moving to quantum physics.
Saul: I hope we get new physics. Better story.
Last new physics was 1910.
I know I sound like the asshole in the room. Level of literacy about energy is pathetic.
Get energy literacy.
Jim: End on that. Announcements from Salim.
June 23, 2010
14:07John Graves: Thank you whoever posted the list of speakers in advance. Big help.
14:12Zain Jaffer : Is William Kamkwamba going to be speaking today?
14:12Emma Brooke: Yep
14:12Zain Jaffer : Isn't he one of TED's most viewed videos?
14:12Zain Jaffer : This is so cool.
14:19dc: @zain - told you so!
14:19dc: low tech, high-impact
14:19dc: thats where its at
14:20dc: and paul farmer is the coolest guy ever
14:20David Hutchison: I thnk this is just amazing and inspiring. I am concerned about the lack of infrastructure for when these technologies break down
14:21dc: @david - this is really cheap infra
14:21David Hutchison: as everything eventually does. Or just replacement parts through normal wear and tear
14:21David Hutchison: but let me be clear that I am not saying this is bad. This is wonderful
14:22David Hutchison: If people become relient on something and then it breaks, they could be worse off than they were before
14:22Sasha: I saw Paul F speak in Boston last year . . . super interesting
14:22Sasha: Matt Damon was there too but he didn't live up to the Goodwill Hunting intelligence expectations
14:22John Graves: Interesting approach to reading/reviewing a book as a team:http://mbmsummary.blogspot.com/2005/11/summaries.html
14:22David Hutchison: *reliant
14:24Emem: Most times, solar panels dont break down for at least 20 years. The problems might be common electrical problems like wirings. The NGOs provide low level skill training for the villagers on this and more skilled workers are in the cities and could help out with more serious problems.
14:28Emem: If we can have 'mortgages' for solar panels it could be more affordable
14:28Julio: Emem, the same problem is going on in native areas in SudAmerica
14:29David Hutchison: Yes, I was talking more about the peanut crusher thing and electrical issues rather than the panels themselves, which come working, out of the box.
14:29David Hutchison: and generally keep working if you keep them clean
14:30David Hutchison: But you're right, as long as there is skill increase and engineering knowledge and supplies transmitted, I think that's the important thing for continuation and further increase
14:31Emem: OK! They are mostly low tech and local/city mechanics can handle most of the problems. Sometimes the parts can be locally fabricated.
14:32David Hutchison: ok. That's interesting, thanks Emem.
14:39Eric Dahlstrom: I just got dropped by EtherPad and had to reconnect a couple times.. let me know if is happening to you
14:39David Hutchison: Etherpad goes down about twice per hour for me, for a few minutes each. Same for others?
14:40Javier: Yes, we all go down
14:40Zain Jaffer : Yes, tis getting rather annoying.
14:40David Hutchison: I think we all go down at the same time, looking at laptops around me
14:40John Graves: Yes. I get drop outs too.
14:40Shary: I've only gotten one
14:40Shary: using firefox
14:40Shary: sorry, two
14:40Eric Dahlstrom: Good to know.. I will ask Ken to investigate
14:40Zain Jaffer : Someone should tell this to Larry Page at the next networking event.
14:41Bill Bing: none for me so far on chrome...?
14:43Emem: am on chrome and it has dropped 2ice today
14:44unnamed: am on chrome and got about two
14:44David Hutchison: I'm on chrome and dropped 4-5 times today
14:44David Hutchison: so maybe we are getting dropped at different times
14:44dc: this is sweeet.. smarter buildings
14:44Justin: buildings with a spine... sweet
14:45Javier: Very cool
14:46John Graves: OK. Ames has a golf course which is going to use reclaimed water:http://environment.arc.nasa.gov/articles/index.html
14:47Sasha: I wonder about what happens when there is competing human intervention
14:48Sasha: I.e. People opening windows, etc
14:49EK: can you use geothermal wells for cooling a building? how?
14:51matt kern: @ sasha, sensors on the window to know when theyre open
14:51matt kern: ?
14:51Justin: standard heat exchanger used in refrigeration for for example
14:53Sasha: can someone secretely take notes?
14:53Rich: Hey guys, can someone elaborate on 'getting dropped' from etherpad?
14:53matt kern: it says \"reconnecting\" or something along those lines
14:54Kidist: getting disconnected
14:54Rich: hm. alright, thanks guys
14:55John Graves: NOW you see why I like kites !!!
15:08Rich: Hey all, the dropping problem is most likely due to the strain on NASA's WiFi from so many streaming connections... We're gonna upgrade the Etherpad server tonight anyway as a safeguard
15:36Tigist: the lady holding wood is ethiopia
15:42Emem: Interesting use of micro finance for energy business on a small scale
15:43Emma Brooke: I lived in Accra1
15:43Emma Brooke: Accra!*
15:43Kidist: for how long?
15:44Emma Brooke: Not long - 2 1/2 months
15:44Zain Jaffer : She's speaking pretty fast
15:44Kidist: should we show the sign ? :)
15:45Kidist: i meant the \"slow dawn \" sign
15:46Emem: will she understand the sign?
15:47Zain Jaffer : She's about to finish
15:47Zain Jaffer : Very interesting speaker though
15:47Kidist: yes, she is\\
15:54Bill Bing: Came across a pretty interesting article on related subject matter by googling Kate Steel World Bank if anyone is interested:http://www.globalization.ac.nz/2010/03/10/how-food-and-water-are-driving-a-21st-century-african-land-grab/
15:55Zain Jaffer : This is amazing...
15:55Zain Jaffer : Too bad he isn't here for real :(
16:00Zain Jaffer : We should watch the second video..
16:11Aaron: Did he mention cost of parts?
16:17John Graves: SNAFU is an acronym meaning situation normal: all fucked up.
16:18Kausar N. Samli: these guys are awesome...and hilarious.
16:21John Graves: Yes, sorry David. I do know that ...
16:22John Graves: OEM - Original Equipment Manufacture
16:28Vincent: has anyone understood what goes into as fuel, e.g. petroleum and salt water or any kind of water or any other liquid?
16:30Vincent: OLEDs are the future of light as they emit natural like light and no heat. fun application of OLED:http://www.ubergizmo.com/15/archives/2009/04/you_fade_to_light_interactive_display.html
16:30Emma Brooke: Has anyone else noticed the Matt Ridley talk has been removed the scedule, or is that just an error with my computer...?
16:30Emma Brooke: schedule*
16:30Shary: mine too
16:31Sam Thorp: Yep, looks like he's cancelled...
16:31Emma Brooke: Maybe he realised he used to work for Northern Rock...
16:32Zain Jaffer : Just like NR realised it all too late
16:38Santiago: Matt Ridley is indeed cancelled.
16:46Kausar N. Samli: has anyone mentioned harnessing tidal wave energy?
16:46Kidist: no one
16:47Derek Jacoby: yes, it was on Saul's slide. Was very small.
16:47Derek Jacoby: I don't remember the number, though.
16:47Sam Thorp: Yeah, Saul mentioned it after his talk
16:48Sam Thorp: Effectively, if we harnessed all of it, completely flattening the ocean, it would account for maybe 30% of our energy needs
16:48Sam Thorp: So he dismissed it
16:49Aaron: Good point, Sam. For anyone who has spent time researching this field, what do you guys think about Sherry's question regarding the future forecasting of the energy market? 1,000 flowers blooming or only a handful or less?
16:52Kausar N. Samli: it may not be 1000 flowers, but I do think it will be more than just a handful. Mainly becuase necessity will force innovation on a local contextual level (e.g: Kate's bangalesh biogas example for cooking and generating elec.)
16:58John Graves: panacea n. A remedy for all diseases, evils, or difficulties
17:01matt kern: what's interesting, no one has mentioned capturing the energy of weather....
17:01Shary: yeah, I meant more whether there's going to be a dominant system, not ONE AND ONLY ONE
17:02Sasha: i wondered about that capture . . especially as we get better at predicting extreme weather
17:15matt kern: a fully contained antimatter reaction suspended in a gravitational field is also a possibility.....
17:17Emem: Batteries are very expensive (25% of solar alternative cost from last presentation) and take up too much space and are not very efficient. One panelist projected an efficiency of 60% for future fuel cells.
17:36Dmitriy: http://www.alphabetenergy.com/this company came out of the Lawrence Berkeley Lab
17:37Staff: it's a thermoelectric approach to waste heat recovery
17:37Staff: and it's inexpensive
17:38Sasha: awesome stuff Dmitriy
17:39David Hutchison: There are more numbers thrown around in this intro than any other. There is also more confusion. Doing nothing with energy, but simply mitigating the confusion would affect a billion people
Michael McGehee - Bo Varga
Margot Gerritsen - Eric Wesoff
Technologies from July 12:
Wind turbine - something new there
Compressed air - two really good presentations CAES
Concentrated solar power
K: Exponential curve relating to meme. More difficult to show.
Every energy person has one technology they irrationally love / hate.
2:48 Tim Williams: Stirling engine
Basis of what I'm talking about is an engine inspired by the grand challenge of transportation fuel.
That 80% of energy that is rejected heat out of that internal compustion engine.
Use that heat to apply to rearrangement of the stirling engine - invented before the steam engine.
Fixed volume of gas. Volume is alternatively heated and cooled.
Arrange the gases with a piston (traditionally).
One piston moves gas out of heating into cooling.
Another moves from cooling to heating zone.
Got this down to a very simple structure.
3 tubes - achieved by bending metal.
Or taking straight metal and welding it in the right places.
Traditional engine has a problem with a seal.
With my design, all the connections are just welded.
A flew through which exhaust gases flow.
Each has a baffle - against either the cool side or heated side.
Linear ossicilator. Magnetic piston - will generate electricity, the other will reverse.
Alternator is well established technology.
With this arrangement ... anyway, people wanted to talk about it.
I'm ready to describe where we are on it.
Take what I have and make a prototype. Establish a company around this - that would be great.
Application, design you would focus. Modify to any particular application.
As a heat engine, any source of heat will drive it:
heat from your internal combustion engine
I was thinking in the fuel situation - big semi-trailers- use exhaust stacks that go up the sides of the cab. Use the air cooling to provide the cool part of it.
The electricity, no batteries, feed into the motor - either around one of the prop shafts of the differentials or one of the drive shafts.
Very easy exploit that energy.
Perhaps save half their transportation fuel.
Opportunity is there for people who want to work in this area. Work it out.
Q: Why not done before?
Stirling engines are good in not very dynamic energy situations. From 0 to 100% power, they don't work well.
All designs so far have involved pistons/crankshafts - and achieving a seal around that has been problematic.
My design gets around that.
Temperature differential - with cynlindrical design needs to be very high.
My design resolves those obstacles.
People have proposed using stirling engines as secondary engines.
They have always been that piston design.
You could make this a sheet - 1 inch think under the whole bottom of the vehicle.
Huge exchange surface.
As soon as you go to a cylindrical system, starts not fitting into places where you want to use it.
Q: Compare to Dean Kamen's?
Don't know exactly his design.
All the other stirling engines use cylindrical approach.
Mine is a totally linear design.
Bryce: Could it run on solid wastes? Does it run at a high enough temperature to sustain a fire?
Anything that burns.
Bryce: What about fly ash?
The engine itself is clean. The heat source might have a fly ash issues.
Bryce: So what is the advantage? Efficiency?
Advantage is using currently waste heat? You could double fuel economy for the vehicle. That in its own right, apart from my wife getting ill, I would have entered this in the XPrize for the 100 mpg vehicle.
: If you had entered it?
Would have used existing engine. Heat output would go into stirling engine.
Unburden main engine of A/C, charging, etc. All that goes away.
I wouldn't look to have batteries.
That's where things get expensive.
I can afford to waste the energy.
You have the opportunity to retrofit any vehicle to make it hybrid.
: Is it feasible?
One you can practically do immediately is the semi-trucks.
For other vehicles, you need a place to put it.
: What about Volt. Engines always just charge battery packs. Still capture heat output.
Approx double the use of the energy you are getting.
Instead of having a liter engine, you could have a 500cc engine.
Can get to it from four plates. Bent metal forms.
Only sophisticated part is the linear alternator.
AVI #1: http://bit.ly/ap3epE
3:11 Bela: Great pleasure to have an opportunity like this.
Santa Fe institute.
small non-profit inst in Santa Fe, NM.
Because institute has such a great reputation, all this was done with local high school volunteers.
More than 100 performance curves.
Will show 61 performance curves.
each based on a decade of data.
Not just information technology.
About technology in general.
See the same regularites.
Universal laws of technological evolution.
From data we have - universal.
You know Moore's Law.
Will talk about First 3 of these 4.
No time for information technology (superexponentials).
Moore's Law can be generalized to other technologies.
Not big news to you - but big news to Intel yesterday - people don't know this.
Moore's Law is special case of more general law, Sahal's Law- published in 1979. Almost unknown work.
Good for forecasting.
Those functional forms based on Sahal's law are best for forecasting.
So, let's get started.
Original Moore's Law: CPUs and memory chips.
40 year anniversary slide from Intel.
How can we generalize this.
One way is to look at price.
All kinds of products have a price. See how it changes over time.
for transistors, you can see a graph like this:
Price as a function of time.
Linear on a log plot is exponential progress.
On log scale Y, time on X.
Price improving exponentially over time.
DRAM. Price coming down exponentially as a function of time.
Hard disk drives?
Look at price per MBit. Seems pretty exponential.
1988 - 2007.
A straight line.
Straight line - then flatter.
Price per watt.
31 year graph.
Antonon? from Brazil.
Outlier point in the middle.
Beer. Dataset from Japan.
Moore's law for beer.
Retail price minus ...
All these exponentials on the same slide:
Hard disk drive (steepest)
All straight lines, but slopes are different.
All these exponentials have a brother, the production.
How many units we produce.
The production is growing exponentially as well.
Same time period
- Production growing exponentially
Put these two exponentials together.
Joined by time.
Take out that variable.
Plot the performance as a function of production.
- Wright's power law progress function
On log-log plot, guess what - you see approx straight lines.
Does it mean to see a straight line on a log-log plot?
It is a power function.
The price is function of the production to some power.
Wright - noticed this for airplanes in 1936.
If you plot the cost of an airplane you see a power function.
the learning curve, or experience curve.
BCG - Boston Consulting Group
Way to squeeze your suppliers.
If you know about energy technologies, really picked up now.
Marko: Would you say this power function is the best function to predict?
Not saying it is the best, but this is a pretty good one.
On the next slide, show connection between Wright and Moore.
Here is a paper,
Devenda Sahal (1979)
A Theory of Progress Functions
IIE Transactions, 11:1, 23-29
The exponential growth of production x(t) = exp(gt)
coupled with exponential progress (Moore) y(t) = exp(-mt)
leads to a power law progress function (Wright)
y(x) = x^-w
where w = m/g
Rediscovery in paper on energy policy. Same explanation that Sahal had 30 years ago.
Now we can test it with the data we have in the database.
We can feed in equations, estimate g m and w.
Is w equal to m / g? Is it supported by data?
we did this test with 61 time series.
If they are equal, Sahal is validated.
If not equal, ...
- [Chart - a straight line of w on Y, m/g on X]
the line in the diagonal is NOT a fitted line. It is a 45 degree line.
Empirical data NEVER lines up like this.
I checked it, double checked it, triple checked it.
ALL 61 one lines fall on this line.
I Googled Sahal. Wanted to tell him that.
All these technologies, different industries.
What I found was other people looking for Sahal.
Jose: That is what I'm finding now too.
So I found an e-mail address. OK, how can I find Sahal.
E-mail comes back - retired aerospace engineer in India who is brother-in-law.
In America, all kinds of other ways to look for people.
So - here is challenge for you - if you know of his whereabouts. His family is looking for him.
So is his wife.
: How many years has he been missing?
1936 Wright. Factors affecting the costs of airplanes. Journal of Aeronautical Sciences (3) 122-128.
Bottom line, only two are compatible.
Moore and Wright.
When you test these forecasting procedures, these are the best ones.
How do you test if your forecast is accurate or not.
Let me give you an example.
Gordon Moore's presentation on YouTube.
Kind of a pathological example.
Ironically, Moore's exponential function doesn't work as well.
Pretend you lived in 1970's or 80's and wanted to forecast what comes.
Only used this data to predict all the rest.
Put a simple projection line, this is where you end up with.
As you see, the error can be quite substantial.
Remember this is a log scale.
Marko: 10 years.
Difference depends on origin. \"Hindcasting\" origin.
And the other is the target year - which year you are trying to forecast.
Let's plot the error as a function of these two things: origin and target.
You get an error mountain.
Target always after origin.
Error grows from sea level - no error.
Reach the snow line at one factor of 10.
Uncolored part of mountain rises above two orders of 10 - a factor of 100 - pretty serious error.
A factor of 2 - green is good. Anything above that is not good.
As I said, Moore's exp progress function does not work so well, but, if you use other functional forms, you can get better results.
This is Goddard's. All green pasture.
- Slide comparing views.
Moore with big snow cap.
Going to finish up quickly.
Just the error mountains for the other datasets.
We analyzed 61 curves.
Now, going to show 10 at a time.
so each row is a data series.
this is beer.
This is DRAM. Ironically, Moore is struggling again - others not so good either.
Whole lot of chemicals, very easy to do that.
Geothermal electricity - might be interested in.
Now finally we have some yellow, not everything is green.
This is gasoline, pretty similar, no matter how you try to predict it.
Built huge statistically model.
Forms that correspond with Sahal did best.
Last one. Green dominates.
Technologies are predictable.
So, here is a summary again, you can generalize Moore's law.
Just a special case of Sahal's law of technological progress.
But, if you believe what I say and the statistical analysis that is my upcoming paper.
Moore's exp progress function and Wright's progress function.
That's all I wanted to say.
Jose: This information is very valuable for the ETIR report.
If we don't have enough data - still a project we are just getting started.
If you know anyone who has data - open access database.
Jose: Solar Photo Voltaic. Different trends.
Marko: Really like to ask you - can you project to 2010/2015?
Only calculated up to last datapoint.
Marko: If you were calculating errors, can you pick the best and forecast?
You can do it. Power law progress function.
Marko: Get data from your website.
Al: More information?
Photo voltaics, which did you cover?
IF you go to the website, you get the curves and where they come from.
3:56 Jose: Lauren will give his view of ETIR.
Space team has been working every night.
Project Goals and Objectives
1. Investigate the potential of renewable, clean and cheap energy sources. Which sources can grow exponentially? Which sources can easily be scalable to reach most developing countries?
2. Compare the current energy matrix of different countries, and identify opportunities for new energy sources in the next 10 years.
3. Calculate the carbon footprint of different energy alternatives and their impact on poor but rapidly growing countries.
4. Evaluate carbon-neutral alternatives, and also consider energy systems that might even help to reduce carbon emissions.
5. Identify cheap ways of local production of energy systems for individual homes, including solar and wind alternatives, but considering other possibilities as well.
6. Quantify the required energy storage requirements for single homes and identify different storage systems to provide electricity at all times.
7. Investigate the development of wireless electricity (WiTricity) transmission, new sensors, smart grids, transportation systems, communication networks, AI applications, nanotechnology and robotic systems to increase the efficiency and reduce the costs of the future energy supplies.
8. Research how some residential energy systems can be used to alleviate other problems and necessities like water production, heating and ventilation of homes.
9. Design, build and demonstrate a simple prototype of a chosen energy alternative for a home energy system in a poor developing country.
10. Create a road-map to provide large-scale clean, cheap and renewable energy in every home during the next 10 years.
4:06 JG: Suggested relatively short brainstorming session, then delegation of authoring to a smaller group.
1/ Needs. Imbalance.
2/ Storage of energy
3/ Lowering price per watt - too expensive renewables
4/ Access to energy in the developing world
Jose: Nolene wanted to compare electricity bills in 35 countries. I brought 1 from Venezuela.
Ross: I pay one fee that includes utilities.
Emem: To get 14 hours of electricity in a month, I pay $400. If I can get energy for $300, I will get
the same energy.
Jose: Who will get that database?
Emem: My bill is $14. NEPPA bill, but in whole month I get 30 hours of light. Useless. Rubbish.
5/ Energy needs in developing world
Houses off the grid
Juan: I mean they need energy - they are off the grid.
6/ Al: Limited or restricted access
Rolling brown outs
7/ Effect of dirty energy
8/ Ill-considered energy policy
(like corn-based ethanol)
9/ Juan: as Emem says: price of energy. Like (3)
Jose: No service more expensive than the one you do not get.
10/ National security. Al: US - specific
11/ San: Inefficiency
Use of too much energy
12/ Distribution - unfair, barriers, weather, geographical
13/ Lack of energy literacy (like 8)
Remember Saul Griffith - (not clear about impact of 1 million fold energy use increase)
Alex: We don't know what is the field. Education.
14/ Al: Increase of energy demand due to economic growth
4:22 K invited in.
K: Going back to day 1. ETIR process. If you capture data, in whatever form you want.
Having captured data - put into form other people may actually read.
MLA reference format.
Almost everybody has as a second language.
XML would be way - but don't worry about that.
As you go through coding - why did I do what I did.
Say, \"I tried something and it didn't work.\"
Make an archive.
Use Mozilla scrapbook. Press a button, saves all the tabs.
When I rejected this idea, what made me think I was
Be able to recreate your searches.
Use 5% or less of your time.
The thoughts behind your thoughts.
Don't worry about the format.
Good to have and keep, give on to future generations of SU students.
You will be alums.
People will be looking to you.
You may be working at the World Bank, or NASA.
An archive of how you came up with this.
Some way they will not have to come up with everything from scratch.
What we are doing is an extraordinarily complex thing.
Go broad before going narrow.
If you have specific question about research.
Find research which is good enough, but not more.
You can be exhaustive, but that is expensive.
Al: List problems first. Brainstorming.
Then working on solutions.
Throw into Etherpad. Compare.
K: Makes sense.
Still going broad.
Here are problems. Here are technologies.
Three solutions seem to apply here.
Might find patterns different from looking one thing at a time.
Al: What do you suggest?
K: Are people comfortable in working at this level of detail?
Large dataset you are rotating.
People looking what solutions apply.
Don't want to prejudge- depends on strengths of people.
Who has done work like this before.
Given a 4 hour period.
Do this for about 20 problems.
2 to each person.
People who volunteer.
Others fill in the details.
Think it is a question of your individual strengths in this area.
Some brainstorm outward.
This is very very wide. Too much information.
For problem 1 - this belongs in an appendix.
Almost like extreme coding - you are doing extreme brainstorming.
Jose: K is a powerhouse of knowledge.
Checked and cross checked Ray's books.
Reading John's Etherpad.
Reading session - not much about bibliography.
Now, 3 bibliography.
She knows it all.
Degree in Env Systems.
Not critical for Friday.
K: One of those things, I can go OCD - perfectionist.
If I was independently wealthy with all the time in the world, ...
Have just enough.
Dr. Lee has been working on this for 20 years. Critiquing you.
If you have read Dr. Lee's materials, you will know what hasn't worked in the past.
Bibliography is just ensuring ...
what are the exp components
what are linear
what might switch.
What could break from the past.
Al: This comes after defining the problem.
Juan: Want to be clear about what you are proposing.
On each line, a footnote.
In this footnote, go to a report with data on prices.
K: Could be data, a discussion you have had.
Report you are doing is internal to SU.
You said this. Jose said that.
Put that in there so you can go in and look at that,
but not distracting from getting the ideas down.
Jose: 5:30, not 5:31.
We will be together for 3 hours.
Has to be on time.
We will review the 5 ETIR.
K: Get ideas down. Each individual person is getting enough down, but don't have to go all out.
I'm biased. I spend a lot of time in the end notes.
The complete process includes the document, the end notes and how you did what you did.
A policy change - put in the notes \"we had a discussion: in some countries, the problem is not the technology but that the incumbent phone companies will not let anyone do this. Biotech: some people don't like this. You need that note. When you bring in Policy, Law and Ethics, you've never lost anything you have looked at it.\"
Read Getting Things Done methodology.
We get worried when we are losing information.
Write it down, then you don't have to worry about it.
Put everything into the footnote.
Al: Emem, Hind and Mercy seem very passionate. In Nigeria, Sudan ...
Would emphasize, talking about energy in Nigeria.
Would target community there - what they need, what they tried, what worked, come with new way.
Jose: Nigeria has 130 m people.
Last year, thought about starting in Brazil.
Open to discussion by team.
Would vote for you Emem.
K: If everybody has some time to capture what is a case history.
A really useful thing to have.
Later on, if only components. Lessons learned may still be applicable to other places.
By having it written down you have something to go back and look at.
Becomes a record. A helpful thing.
Something someone in the executive program could look at.
If you are in Energy, do you want to look at this section.
Talk to our local expert.
Jose: Thank you for your advice. She will be reading what John is writing now.
K: If there are questions, that's what I am here to do.
4:40 Jose: Thank you. [applause]
Those three ways are more or less standard.
Gary: When we did why/what?
Why - climate change, business opportunity. Everything relies on energy.
Everyone has a right to it
Improve quality of life
Some applications will need energy tomorrow
I think that we covered pretty much.
Juan: If you have energy, you have everything else.
Hind: Can we order them? Which the most critical?
Gary: Group them?
Fabio: Group into Gen / Transmit / Storage
Mercy at board: 1 2 3 or A (for all).
Gary: Grids are a big constraint.
Fabio: Don't have a grid for renewable energy.
Jose: Centralized. But switching from centralized to decentralized.
Emem: Comes down to storage. In someone's house.
Mercy: All of it?
Gary: Put something, move on.
Jose: What Emem was saying about Nigeria - breakfast with Larry Page. If he hears about Africa, he'll be with us forever.
Emem: Jose, you lived in Nigeria.
Jose: Yes for 6 months.
Emem: And you knew about this problem?
[continued review, point by point on board, assigning to Generation / Transmission / Storage]
Gary: If you have intermittancy - you have the wired net
Juan: What is the problem in Nigeria?
Emem: No rail system that functions. Can't get walking road network. How can you get power grid?
[ See Three Cups of Tea, book ]
We have oil, for God's sake.
Other countries have energy 24 hours.
In our country, we cannot fix transmission.
Gary: I'm talking about what is in brackets.
Juan: Sometimes too many people use at the same time, boom.
Emem: Electricity coming to your house is not good.
San: Capacity is too low.
Mercy: Energy is mostly hydro generated. When it rains, we have energy. When it does not, we don't.
Gary: You can't store it?
Juan: Why in Nigeria so expensive when you have oil?
Emem: Buy a diesel generator - from US or China. Costs $14K. Not as expensive in US.
Can last 3-5 years. Now have to maintain it.
Cost about $400. All in $700 per month.
Marko: $700 includes equipment.
Emem: Just the diesel is $400 / month.
San: Reference to share with us?
Emem: Try to see if I can get anything on the web. Google. Shows on-line. How much sell.
San: Present on all the problems.
Fabio: tells us something interesting. Go to home generation solution - so that's a way.
Juan: we need to do it clean.
Marko: How many as % have diesel?
Emem: Depends on how much you want.
or TV to be powered for $150.
Marko: How many?
Emem: at 1 kW - 3 million have them - estimate.
Marko: About 3% of population.
There are 150 million people.
Emem: Chad, West African region.
Nigerian poplulation can afford the solution.
If comes in at $10K, you will be beating customers back.
Marko: So solar panels can do this.
Emem: Don't live in their houses, the are in apartments.
Marko: Something you can roll up.
Emem: those will go very fast. The way the generators work.
San: Already the solution - cheaper power source. Why don't you use it?
Mercy: Policy. Better to use oil.
Emem: No body can generate power other than national power authority.
NIgeria Info: Availability and reliability of electricity supplies have always been vexed issue in Nigeria. With an estimated population of 130 million people in AD 2005, Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and belongs to the group of countries with the lowest electricity consumption per capita in the continent. Nigeria is also ranked among the poorest countries in the world. This paper examines the likely trend in the demand for electricity over the next 25 years under the assumptions that (i) there is a rapid economic development such that Nigeria transforms from low- to middle-income economy during this period, (ii) Nigeria meets the millennium development goals (MDG) in AD 2015, and (iii) the country achieves the status of an industrializing nation. For these to happen, this paper projects that electric-power generation will have to rise from the current capacity of 6500 MW to over 160 GW in AD 2030. This level of supply will be significant enough to increase the per capita electricity consumption to about 5000 kWh per capita by the year 2030. Even then, this just compares with the AD 2003 per capital consumption of some industrializing countries. Analysis of the level of investment required to meet the projected power demand indicates that annual investment cost will rise from US$3.8 billion in AD 2006 to a peak of US$21 billion in AD 2028. The total investment stream over the 25 year period comes to US$262 billion or roughly US$10 billion per annum.
Emem: By the time you get it into the country,
Jubai won't let you.
Fabio: What percent have generators?
Emem: 2% at least. Talking about generators that can provide your power need.
Whole country is market for kerosene lamps.
People who have the financial power to buy their needs.
San: If they import individuals, is that illegal.
Gary: Cost to get 3KW installation?
Emem: Too big. 1kW is OK.
If everybody wants to scale, you buy 3.
Marko: If I am a Nigerian person, can I buy a solar panel.
Emem: If you don't have someone in US, put in a car and ship the car.
If as a solar panel, put in port. $25,000 will become $50,000 with taxes.
That is a policy problem.
Always ways around it.
Gary: Sort of forbidden.
Emem: Thought is, If they stop people, it will start to get the power authority to work.
Marko: Can you ship in 4 different parts, say it is material. Not taxed.
Emem: If assembled, not taxed.
Jose: We have to do this. Begin working on the Google documents tonight.
Ross and I have to leave for faculty meeting.
We have Tim Williams.
Tonight work on Google docs.
What are the priorities - Gary?
Gary: Not best moment.
JG: Can we split up.
Jose: Not so much a speech as to ask.
Build a prototype.
Tim: To make a model, assuming you have a workshop. A few hundred dollars.
Jose: Very cheap.
Fabio: not including ...
Gary: Split for 15 min.
Juan: Focus on home energy generation. Will machine help houses all around the world?
Tim: Just a heat engine-
reflect sun on it
Use it as your chimney.
Reflect sun on outside, reverse direction of heat.
Juan: Following your calculations, TV computer lights?
Tim: That is just a design specification.
You can design and determine what you'd need to support it.
Jose: Important point.
Like biofuels. Are they useful?
This intermediate step when you can go directly into electricity.
Marko: Biofuels are from light. PV, get electricity right away.
Mercy: Also need transportation.
Jose: Need batteries.
An airplane needs liquid fuel - for different applications.
So one part of team goes: John, Gary, Fabio
5:04 Gary. With Tim Williams.
Try to solve problems in cheaper, more efficient way.
Mechanical issues -
point Marko was raising - go through many processes, not worth to do it.
If hot smoke or sun, get hot air temp.
Tim: Then get electricity from that.
Gary: Then output of that is mechanical power.
Tim: With this you could pump water, lots of things.
Lot of options.
In car transport, you'd make it electrical
Fabio: What is source of heat in Africa - sun ... we don't have sunlight 24 hours a day.
Hydro pump is an idea.
Gary: Many ideas.
Nigeria. Do prototype that is fancy - something you can ship in massive way.
Efficient measures. Ship like a lego. Like IKEA is shipping products. In pieces. Easy to assemble.
Very low cost to ship. Easy to assemble.
For houses, that need warmth at night, have a fire. Get the smoke of that 12 hours per day. Then sun, 12 hours per day. Also apply to car industry. Many stuff.
Get one step further from this.
Fabio: will need a prototype.
Tim: Simplest: square box. Let me draw on this.
You know those electrical skillets. You can set the temperature. Use that as your start point.
That is here, with a plug in it.
Weld the box at that point.
Then come on the top.
Insert the baffle, like a plunger, up and down. Not rock.
Gary: That has to be flexible?
Tim: No, this part is like a plunger.
Then you put a lid over it.
What this is, a steel rod that you can put a magnet on the end. Pull it and drop it with a magnet on the top.
When you pull it up, you close this surface and the gas is heated. When you drop it, the gas goes to the other phase.
Measure the pressure on that. Pressure by the volume will tell how much energy you are generating.
On the top you have a magnet.
If this is steel it will go backwards and forwards.
Rest can be Aluminium.
Get it to move with a magnet outside.
If in this position, then this is manufactured with
Clay spun into wool
Provides an insulation against side that is resting.
To ensure we are maximizing our cooler,
Put a reservior of water there.
In a vehicle, you'd have the wind blowing.
Ensure that is cold.
Come out here to a pressure ...
see what pressures you are getting.
Take it, put two of them, with the piston in the middle.
Demonstrating that this works.
Crude, but would demonstrate the power that you are going to get.
PSI trans volume translates to the power available.
Fabio: I'm sure this works. Concerned about the source of heat.
Tim: This is a prototype.
If you are integrating a particular source of heat
This is a technical proof ofconcept. Vary the temperature. See the consequence.
Either put it to operate against a springloaded piston.
Normally closed, when you move it up, heat the gas.
Gary: Doing this, going to be able to evaluate the amount of energy.
Tim: Power that you generate is determined by 3 things.
How often you transfer between phases.
Second is size.
In all these systems, pressurized gas. Helium or low atomic weight gases. Will also work with Nitrogen, or whatever.
Third thing is delta T across those things.
If this is set at 70C. And this is 350C or 400C - toward the top of what Aluminum can do.
More diffential is better.
Efficiency is determined by ability of each cycle to move heat.
If low temperature, need to compensate by having large area.
According to temp differential, less pressure, must spread out over bigger area.
Gary: Concern is little amount of time. Not sure by building that, will be able to matrix the other one.
What we need is to know the results of that to see if we could scale.
Tim: Alright. I work with SolidWorks.
Fabio: See if we can open that on Autodesk.
Tim: I can send you the second one.
Tim: If you made the first one, you'd bend it with rollers.
The seond version is completely sheet based.
Spacer to hold them apart.
Fabio: What is it?
Tim: Piece, bent on corners, you weld the joints.
The automation part is exceptionaly easy. your welding beads - you could produce km per day of this shape.
Jut a bent form.
On the end caps, put your pivots.
The production of this is incredibly easy.
Nice way to deal with it.
Mechanical energy take off to whatever you want.
Gary: Have you calculated?
Tim: Part I don't have is linear alternator.
NASA has research on a linear alternator.
So reciprocating action takes magnets past the coils.
Fabio: Not a hard thing to do.
Tim: Very very simple.
NASA has them and uses them on deep space flights. They might just provide one.
Then you have to bring out a tube to work on each side of the linear alternator.
Just bent metal filled with KAOwool. Same function as a piston. Just moves backwards and forewards.
Skype ID for Tim Williams: tim.peanut
My project works in 10 countries.
Brazil - Minas Gerais. 5 hours from Rio.
Fabio: I'm from Sao Paulo.
I travel - last year I did 5/6 internatioal trips - usually 10 day trip.
Go on a Friday, spend a week. Come back.
Fabio: If did not understand the stirling engine, this might help you http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stirling_engine
JG: Suggest a first draft be prepared.
Marko: I will inspect tomorrow. I can work while he is talking.
Gary: So you are on second team.
JG: I get up early - I'll be on team 2.
Juan: Mercy/Hind/Emem/Alex are team 1 - deadline Tuesday
The NanoSIG is a nanotechnology business networking organization that staged over 60 conferences, forums, and seminars focused mainly on the business of nanotechnology from 2001 through 2004.
Forums were focused on the intersection of nanotechnology with biotechnology, education, electronics, investing, and materials science and were staged in Silicon Valley, Washington DC, and San Diego.
Bo Varga now works with North American nano and clean energy start-up and early stage companies and projects and can be reached via bvarga@USnano.biz see www.usnano.biz for more details.
30% of energy used in CA is used on water.
17% of all water is used by power generation business.
Water is oil. Coming from the Sierras.
All of our food is oil. We are eating oil, drinking oil
There is a ratio: 1000 gallons of water for each gallon of coke.
Third world is exporting water to first world in terms of food, cotton etc
1000 kg of water in the beef exported to the US.
If you are going to do storage economically, you are going to have to have large scale manufacturing facilities.
Tesla used 1600 1650's - batteries you have in your laptop.
If serious about energy storage -
leverage something the car industry or other large mfg base
single household affordability.
OR get from Gates.
Solar cookers. Parabolic type device. Catch the sunlight.
Forward osmosis - ionic imbalance. Fresh water pulled through.
Couple companies have pilot plants.
So much solar energy - very inefficient to use evaporation. Every greenhouse does it.
Many different things, issue is
1/ can you do away with moving parts
2/ affordability - really crucial
3/ field life - 10 or 20 years? Lubrications. Minimize maintenance.
Look at new project/technology once a week.
Engage every month or so.
Know a little about everything.
Need to dig in to subject - for large investment fund, concentrating 2 to 11,000 suns.
Cheap to make mirrors.
Expensive to make high efficiency solar cells.
Bo - from Hungary.
Franceso from Italy.
5:00 pm - 5:30 pm: Eric Dahlstrom and Lauren Fletcher on ETIR (Team Project Time)
Jose: Michael McGehee
Getting money from KAIST
\"Kaust\" N of Jeddah.
Mike: Nice to be here with audience from so many different countries.
45 min talk with no questions.
75 to 90 with.
Talk about solar cells themselves.
Not the policy or economics.
How the cells work and what will make them better.
On first slide - goals
- To provide power - about 10 T W of solar
If we are to do this,
must grow at 35% per year
2 years ago grew by 85%.
To stay on that trajectory out to 2030,
we must not run out of raw materials. Some concern there.
Really important to make enough money in 2 years to be able to double the factory size.
So, right now, you build with investment - borrow money.
At really large scale, can't borrow several B $.
Need to be able to build factories at very low cost.
Another related to that - if not enough energy paybackto use the energy to build the factory - then carbon
Energy payback time is less than a year now.
So, I really like this slide
- The grid parity cost depends on location
When will cost from solar cells be less than coal fired power plant?
Amount of sun varies a lot.
Depends on the cost.
In Italy, where electricity is expensive and there is lots of sun,
grid parity has been achieved.
These are countour lines.
$8 - cost per watt.
Q: All in cost.
Maintenance is negligible.
Installation is not.
Q: 0.8 $ per watt.
We are already at that level for the module. Installation adds more cost.
How cells work.
p - lots of holes.
n - negatively charged.
When you bring these materials together, these materials diffuse across, just like perfume across a room.
When you have imbalance, you have an electric field.
When light comes in, you can excite and separate the positive and negative charge.
That is the essence.
What sets the effiency limit?
Only aborb light if the energy exceeds the band gap.
but not that simple. Thermalization - you just generate heat in the semiconductor.
Efficiency as function of band gap:
1.4 eV is ideal.
Here you see materials: GaAs is just about perfect.
Q: What stops cells from being more efficient?
Q: Heard 42% effic?
We'll get to that.
You can use multiple solar cells and stack them.
Hit high gap first, absorb
Reduce the amount of energy you use.
If you put baatteries in series.
This is how you get high efficiency. But outrageously expensive.
50,000 dollars per metre squared
You are going to have these slides to study later.
No change in world record in 12 years.
Thin film technique at 12%
Organic - only 7%, but expect to be up to higher range in a few years.
Throughput of equipement
You could imagine a scenario where in the desert you would use a tech.
- Mulitstalline siclion
Efficiency at 15-18% - $500/m^2.
You need an inverter for most applications - most people want AC.
Q: Decentralized power could be DC?
Not my area of expertise though.
Over 30 years - factoring in interest payments - about half the cost.
0.28 cents per watt.
Avg grid cost - 0.13
NIGERIA Diesel Generator
a diesel run gen can use 20 litres for 5 hours to deliver 5Kw/hr so this is 4 litres or a gallon for 1 hr of 5kw/hr what is the price of diesel here? $3.00 per gallon, so 5kw/hr = $3, therefor 1Kw = 60 cents, this is JUST diesel. Note the pice of the generator is not includ. Good generator is approx $10K and lasts for 3-5 years.
Already makes sense to get part of power from solar cell.
And these are old numbers.
- compare system on roof of department store with utliity system out in desert.
That is economic decision.
Module after module after module - and costs comes down.
Marko: Like to know where in 3 years.
Bo: $5.50 in Toyko - 100kW system
We're proud this came from Stanford, Dick Swanson.
Really neat - both electrodes are on the back side.
Diffuse down, get split at bottom.
Esthetics are very important.
People in Silicon Valley - want to buy cells regardless of cost, so long as it looks good.
Solar cells a few years old look kind of ugly.
Another nice thing, make metal thick.
Can mfg 21% - not one time with a little cell.
Make 6 by 6 inch cells. World record is at 24.
Pay an extra dollar per watt.
Expensive to do all this patterning - photolithography.
You pay more for the module, but then get savings on installation side.
Most prefer technology from Sun Power.
Cost of tracking is not worth it for the amount of extra power.
For multi-junction, very different story.
- Inorganic Thin Film
Semiconductor is much less.
It can be flexible.
Here is an example of amorphous ...
band gap 1.4 eV - nearly perfect.
Hard to n-type so, CdS
Second pass through solar cell.
Q: Diffraction grating?
Yes. And you can make cells thinner.
Gap between record 16.% efficiency and industry at 11%.
Gap in substrate is very small.
Cells last for 20 years.
One company - First Solar - now doing more than all others.
2009 90 cents / W
2010 81 cents / W
Ramping up as fast as they can.
Can sell it for a whole lot more - people willing to pay a lot more than cost.
Building factories as fast as they can
- Toxicity of Cd
First Solar will recycle the panels.
Q: Lower the cost -
What if built to last only 5 years.
Better to wait 5 years to get new technology?
Economics - not right strategy. So much of cost is in glass, packaging, getting someone to put it up on the roof.
If lifetime would have been only 5 years, efficiency would have been
Marko: So installation is more of cost
Bo: 30% is installation
Mike: Glass will be hard to cut down.
Not going to see a dime per watt. Will level out at 30-40 cents per watt range.
Emem: If I want 1000 kW for $1000 ...
Mike: Depends a lot on scale, installation could range from $1 / W to $6 / W.
Seeing innovation there as well.
Some of the stuff - if you get everyone to install solar at the same time, average cost is lower than doing them one at a time.
Standardizing the stuff.
Gigantic modules - use crane to install them.
People who have thought you could not lower installation.
both coming down, by factor of 40.
If solar cells in shingles, no extra cost to put on roof.
In the developing world, installation is dramatically less.
Truly - no installation cost - people put them out in the day. During the day, they point them at the sun. Not mounted to roof of a building. I've been to Nepal.
- Is there enough Te?
Look at success of First Solar - tempting to tell all solar cell researchers to go find another job.
Not sure. My not have enought Te.
6 g / m^2
16 W / g or Te. USGS tells we have 47,000 tons. Assume we use all of it, then we could do 0.14 TW average.
Started talk saying we need 5-10 TW. I don't think we can provide 20% of world supply.
VERY complicated. If you tripled cost of Te, USGSwould triple amount available.
Only recover if at economically viable way.
When cost of oil goes up, at $150 / barrel, tar sands suddenly become deliverable.
Dave Egelshom. We have a 30 year supply of eery element. We actually have more than we believe.
May be more out there .. may not be. People who know the answer, won't say.
See Martin Gree \"Estimates of Te and In Prices from Direct mining\"
Mostly in China and Peru.
\"Tellurium is produced mainly in the United States, Canada, Peru and Japan.\"
Investment money was going here.
Nanosolar about $500m
Solyndra - about $1 bn
Nanoparticles, just printed.
Put it down, fuse, end up with thin flim.
Not done in vacuum.
- MiaSole - evaluating them for VC - got to see factor on Friday - unbelievable. Mind blowing - stainless go in, modules come out at 90 cents / watt.
CIGS could get held back from shortage of Indium.
Competes with flat panel displays
Roll to roll process.
Takes 50 min to deposit 0.3 - means plant is really long.
Bigger and bigger modules.
2 meter square.
Big. Much fewer connections. Chipping away at installation cost.
Could probably use with other technologies.
- Organic Semiconductors.
Thin film, but now switching over to using molecules.
100,000 tons used in car paint.
Costs 17 cents / m^2.
Need oil to make this.
Using such a small amount - but if using only a couple grams. No problem.
Nothing in here that is toxic.
Could win if efficiencies could come up.
Konarka - Very light weight and flexible.
Marko: For cell phones?
Bo: 100 companies selling chargers.
When printing press used, it is a blur to the eye.
- How cells work. Physics is completely different. Donor, acceptor. 10 nm interpenetration.
Key - don't expose to air. With sunlight, you get photo-oxidation.
All solar cells need to be packaged.
UV filter - high energy - a bit of Titania. Don't lose much cutting UV out.
Car paint is very stable out in the light.
Run tests around the clock.
Still need to test heating/cooling.
Organic works in cold and heat, but not in concentrators.
- Schematic of Multijunction
$50,000 per square meter - grown layer by layer.
Typically by about 500x.
Only works for direct light.
If you have diffuse light, it won't proprerly focus.
Big difference 3.7 and 6.4 kWh/day - but only about factor of 2x.
Tracker - adds about 30%.
Concentrator - performance drops in Seattle.
Calc by Steve Eglash
Al: Beam splitting approach lower costs further?
What is killing you is having to track.
Will motors last 50 years?
Gary: What prevents cells from capturing more energy?
Go back to single junction cell. 70% we can't harvest.
You get recombination,
resistivity in electrodes.
JG: What about really dumb technology - lots of mirrors pointing to a boiler?
This is Silicon Valley.
Could cover part of roof with PV and part with solar water heater.
Jose: We have about $4K for project.
Mike: Best tech is First Solar - almost without a doubt.
If most people approach, they say, \"sold out.\"
If you ask, you might get a couple of panels.
Jose: Do you have solar panels in your home?
Mike: No. I have a convoluted roof and spend my time in the lab.
In Palo Alto, you can pay a bit more and they give you green electricity.
So that's what I do?
Al: Didn't talk about thermo-voltaics?
Mike: Don't know what you mean. I have seen sketches in a book but am not in a position to comment on them.
Emem: You talked about Organic solar cells. How do they work?
- Polymer-Fullerene Bulk Heterojunction Cells
Not expensive at all to go multi-junction with organics.
We are not going to get 42%. These are lower quality materials.
We can do $30 per meter squared.
Q: Indium, Fullerenes from other industry?
Could recover Indium from flat panel displays.
Bo: They take waste stream. 6 9 and 4 9 -
A lot ends up on the walls of the deposition system.
Al: In organic based, arrange to have energy band gap, have 3-4 cells.
Advantage - millions of molecules you can make, get any band gap you want.
Al: 3-4 cells in same system.
Maybe what I just said was too simplistic. We don't get things back in week.
Need 1.2 eV band gap. We have it, but lose other properties.
3:59 Jose: Move from energy to storage [applause]
4:09 Jose: Bo has all the answers. Different types of storage.
Bo: Asked for one week to give this presentation.
First presentation on new computer.
Batteries for last 4 years.
Very client driven - commercialization of technology
3 energy related now:
State in Mexico
DC - high voltage is very expensive.
If you can do standard AC wiring -- much cheaper.
Has to be affordable.
Technology only relevant if it solves an important problem.
More for less.
Focused on mfg. All storage has to do with mfg. This is not the world of web 3.0.
What you don't see
Wind appears 4-5x more. 20% of capex.
5% for solar.
Now a bunch of wind plants that are down a lot of the time.
Started drilling for oil - hit gusher.
Invest BTUs - used to get a lot more BTUs back.
Capex - unit cost at scale.
On material input side - optimistic, substitution, over time you can do more with less.
Tailings are loaded with value.
Quality - 2 areas to build business. Go either for low cost OR high quality. Not both.
18650 - standard battery is $1.25 each.
- LIB cell demand
Close to 2 billion batteries mfg in 2010.
Power - how much can I get
Energy - how long can I get it for
Compressed Air - stationary storage. Issue is to have really good underground, salt mines. Much more developed in Europe.
Compressed Nat Gas - almost all buses going into service
Very familiar with study of pumped. Biggest being built in China - couple $ billion.
Altair / Nano
- Energy Storage Comparisons
Ola: Li Air.
Will come at very end. Bottom line: on a weight and volume basis - use Li as annode, more power and energy than gas or diesel.
Problem: highly explosive if it gets any water on it.
Please feel free to follow up with me.
400-500 m 18650's mfg per quarter now.
Fork lifts still use lead acid for counterweight.
6800 18650's in Tesla.
- Focus on Economics
Applications and technology:
Profit/loss for battery mfg - you've made about 1% per year.
Advanced battery materials is a profitable business.
To have a real impact, need volume,
Li-Air is projected to deliver up to 10 times the performance of lithium ion and will enable EVs to drive +1000 miles on a single charge! Excellatron Solid State has developed prototypes with +100 cycles. To date it was believed that Li-air was not rechargeable. ESS is currently refining and scaling this paradigm shifting technology. ESS is owned by Dr. Lonnie Johnson the inventor of the Super Soaker.
Bo writes for:
[trying to get through last 18 slides in remaining time ...]
Johnson is aiming for $200 / kW hour.
- AEP utility in Texas. Sodium Sulfur batteries.
Intersolar exhibitors by country
Australian National Testing Laboratories Australia
Lisec Maschinenbau GmbH Austria
Oekoenergie-Cluster (OEC) Austria
Sun Master Energiesysteme GmbH Austria
Gasokol GmbH The Solar Manufactory Austria
SOLution Solartechnik GmbH Austria
Bekaert Advanced Coatings NV Belgium
enerG Magazine Canada
ATS Automation Tooling Systems Canada
Schneider Electric (Xantrex Technology) Canada
Xiris Automation Inc. Canada
SPARQ Systems Canada
XYG Glass Canada
EnerWorks Innovative Solar Energy Solutions Canada
Jiangsu Sainty International Group Corp., Ltd. China
Jiangsu Sunrain Solar Energy Co., Ltd. China
Allied Advanced Materials Co., Ltd. China
Ningbo BEST Solar Energy Technology Co., Ltd. China
Juli New Energy Co., Ltd China
Polar Photovoltaic Co., Ltd. China
Jiangxi Sinoma New Solar Materials Co., Ltd. China
Tianwei New Energy Holdings Co., Ltd China
Sunflower Renewable Energy Co., Ltd China
Taizhou Hooray Solar Tech Co., LTD. China
China Sunergy (Nanjing) Co.,Ltd. China
Ningxia Yinxing Polycrystalline Silicon Co.,Ltd. China
Sungen International Limited China
CNPV Solar Power SA China
CIEC Overseas Exhibition Co. Ltd. China
Changzhou NESL Solartech Co.,Ltd China
CCPIT Jiangsu Sub-Council China
ZHEJIANG ZG-CELLS CO., LTD. China
CCPIT Jiangsu Sub-Council China
Changzhou Erjin Solar-Energy Equipment Making Co., Ltd China
PowerWay Mounting System China
Jiangsu Micoe Solar Energy Co., Ltd. China
Wuxi High-New Technology Industrial Development Co., Ltd. China
Ningxia Longi Silicon Material Co., Ltd. China
Ningxia Electric Power Group Co., Ltd. China
Zhejiang Jiaming Tianheyuan Photovoltaic Technology Co., Ltd. China
CSG PVTech. Co., Ltd. China
LDK Solar Hi-Tech Co. Ltd China
Wuxi (New Energy) National Science and Technology Commercial Innovation Base China
Wuxi Shangpin Solar Energy Science & Technology Co., Ltd. China
Zhejiang BLD Solar Technology Co., Ltd. China
Westech Solar Technology Wuxi Co., Ltd. China
Anji DaSol Solar Energy Science & Technology Co., Ltd. China
Long Energy (Suzhou Shenglong PV-Tech Co.,Ltd.) China
Zhenjiang Tianlang Luminous Energy&Photoelectricity Co.,Ltd. China
Jingmu International Exhibition Co.,Ltd. China
Jinko Solar Co., Ltd. China
Ningbo Qixin Solar Electrical Appliance Co., Ltd. China
Jiangxi Solar PV Corporation China
Jiangyin Huafang New Energy Hi-Tech Equipment Co., Ltd. China
Jiangyin Jetion Science & Technology Co., Ltd. China
Zhejiang Longbai Photovoltaic Tech Co., Ltd. China
Upsolar Co., Ltd. China
CIEC Overseas Exhibition Co. Ltd. China
Trina Solar Limited China
Beijing Hope Solar Power, Ltd China
GCL-Poly Energy Holding Limited China
Solargiga Energy Holdings Limited China
Nanyang Universal Solar Technology Co., Ltd. China
EGing PV China
GS-Solar Company Ltd. China
Shanghai Areo-Sharp Electric Technologies Co., Ltd China
Zhenrong Technology Co., Ltd. Pingxiang China
Risen Energy Co., Ltd. China
PV Newspaper China
Topray Solar (Europe) GmbH China
Shenzhen Zhong Jing Solar Co., Ltd. China
Borun new energy science & technology co. ltd. China
Shandong Linuo Import & Export Co. Ltd. China
Perlightsolar Co., Ltd. China
Nanyang Green Silicon Co., Ltd. China
Jiangsu Sunlink PV Technology Co., Ltd. China
ET Solar Group China
QS Solar China
KEPT Industry Co., Ltd. China
SVCS Process Innovation s.r.o. Czech Republic
R2D Automation France
APOLLON SOLAR France
Vincent Industrie France
Yole D\u00e9veloppement France
SEMI EUROPE Grenoble Office France
Singulus Technologies AG / Stangl Semiconductor Equipment AG Germany
viasys Intelligent Video GmbH Germany
GERMANY-Energy ALTEC Solartechnics Germany
SIBA GmbH & Co. KG Germany
LayTec GmbH Germany
Maschinenbau GEROLD GmbH & Co. KG Germany
GFC AntriebsSysteme GmbH Germany
Siemens AG Energy Sector Germany
pv magazine / Solarpraxis AG Germany
Krinner Schraubfundamente GmbH Germany
Mounting Systems GmbH Germany
AS Solar GmbH Germany
OTTO-CHEMIE - Hermann Otto GmbH Germany
VAU Thermotech GmbH & Co.KG Germany
Fath Solar GmbH Germany
ALD Vacuum Technologies GmbH Germany
Sch\u00e4fer + Peters GmbH Germany
Schunk Kohlenstofftechnik GmbH Germany
G\u00fcnther Spelsberg GmbH + Co. KG Germany
ACI-ecotec GmbH & Co. KG Germany
Galaxy Energy GmbH Germany
Freiburg Wirtschaft Touristik und Messe GmbH & Co. KG Germany
AMB Automation Germany
WATERWAY Engineering GmbH Germany
Germany Trade & Invest (gtai) Germany
OKU Obermaier GmbH Germany
Rena GmbH Germany
Gebr. Schmid GmbH + Co. Germany
Intech GmbH & Co KG Germany
Concentrix Solar GmbH Germany
DAS Environmental Expert GmbH Germany
University of Stuttgart (ITW) Germany
MB Automation GmbH Germany
Dockweiler AG Germany
Still Optics GmbH & Co. KG Germany
SUN & WIND ENERGY/Bielefelder Verlag GmbH & Co.KG Germany
Critical Manufacturing S.A. Germany
Hennecke Systems GmbH Germany
W. Haldenwanger Technische Keramik GmbH & Co.KG Germany
procasi UG Germany
JENOPTIK Automatisierungstechnik GmbH Germany
centrotherm clean solutions Germany
AIS Automation Dresden GmbH Germany
Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology Germany
Shimadzu Scientific Instruments, Inc. United States
Morgan Technical Ceramics United States
THERMOCOAX United States
Solarzentrum North America, Inc. United States
Poco Graphite United States
SunMaxx Solar United States
Carlo Gavazzi Inc. United States
Vela Solaris United States
SolarTech United States
Solar-Trac by OmegaFlex United States
Greenpower Capital, LLC United States
Comchip Technology Corporation United States
Micro-Vu Corporation United States
TED (The Energy Detective) United States
Technosun Corporation United States
Praxair Electronics United States
centrotherm photovoltaics USA Inc. United States
Edwards United States
Greentech Media, Inc. United States
PROINSO US LLC United States
Optomec United States
REO USA Inc. United States
Nextronex Energy Systems United States
Hollaender Manufacturing Co. United States
COMET AG United States
Gorman-Rupp Industries United States
EFACEC USA United States
Air Products United States
Centrosolar America United States
Magma Design Automation United States
American Roll Form United States
JP Sercel Associates, Inc. United States
Evans Components Inc. United States
Free Hot Water United States
Schletter Inc. United States
Cyber Technologies USA, LLC United States
Sensor Electronics Corporation United States
3S Industries USA United States
Kureha America Inc. United States
VAT United States
Diamond Materials Tech, Inc. United States
ASES American Solar Energy Society United States
RST United States
Specialized Technology Resources (STR) Solar Division United States
Assembly Process Technologies United States
OPDE US LLC United States
Fisnar United States
DuPont Kalrez\u00ae and Vespel\u00ae United States
L&C Group Corp. United States
Solar Ventures USA United States
Advantiv Technologies, Inc. United States
M+W Group United States
Honeywell United States
Kurt J. Lesker Company United States
Kashiyama United States
REC Silicon United States
ScatterMaster, LLC United States
Atonometrics United States
Geolink Technologies LLC United States
OAI United States
SCI Engineered Materials United States
Valentin Software, Inc. United States
Quick Mount PV United States
Stellar Net, Inc. United States
CVD Equipment Corporation United States
Festo Corporation United States
Multi-Contact USA United States
Varian Semiconductor Equipment United States
Oser Communication Group United States
IKO International, Inc. United States
Stego, Inc. United States
KUKA Systems Corporation North America United States
DelSolar United States
ATN Hoelzel LP United States
SunCarrier LLC United States
tesa tape, inc. United States
OE-A (Organic Electronics Associaton) United States
FIBOX Enclosures United States
MET Laboratories, Inc. United States
Matheson Tri-Gas United States
Tyco Electronics United States
Fraunhofer Center for Sustainable Energy Systems United States
Set-Solar Corp. United States
Fluor United States
HUETTINGER Electronic, Inc. United States
AmerCable United States
all4-GP (North America) Inc. United States
Olympus America Inc. United States
Daitron, Inc. United States
Tosoh SMD, Inc. United States
Hydro Aluminum Solar Solutions United States
Zeta Instruments Inc. United States
Linde Gas LLC United States
Applied Energy Technologies United States
Foamtec International WCC United States
Spectral Evolution United States
Alpine Site Services Inc. United States
RBI Solar United States
DEGERenergie GmbH United States
Arguson, an SPX Brand United States
Northern California Solar Energy Association (NorCal Solar) United States
FlexLink Systems, Inc. United States
ICOS Vision Systems United States
Armacell LLC United States
DEHN Inc. (DEHN+Soehne GmbH) United States
GNB Corporation United States
Worthington Energy Systems United States
Asahi Diamond America, Inc. United States
aleo solar North America, Inc. United States
Ignite Solar, LLC United States
Lumeta, Inc. United States
SGS Slicing Solutions United States
Solectria Renewables United States
Arkema Inc. United States
Process Materials Inc. United States
MRL Industries United States
Vikram Solar Inc. United States
Radiant Source Technology, Inc. United States
Gehrlicher Solar America Corp. United States
Arkema Inc. United States
Ontario, Canada United States
Sonnetek United States
REFU Solar Electronics, Inc. United States
OutBack Power Systems United States
Valtech Corporation United States
Underwriters Laboratories United States
Advanced Energy Industries, Inc. United States
PANalytical Inc. United States
Evergreen Engineering United States
Beckhoff Automation United States
AMETEK United States
Wirsol Solar Colorado, Inc. United States
1 SolTech Inc. United States
Unirac, Inc. United States
Baja Construction Co. United States
Amtech Systems Inc. United States
Cuantum Solar America LLC United States
Ocean Optics United States
Pall Corporation United States
Stiebel Eltron, Inc. United States
Balazs NanoAnalysis United States
Gavish, Inc. United States
HVA, LLC United States
Kipp & Zonen United States
Parker Hannifin - Veriflo Division United States
UMA Solar United States
Sanmina-SCI United States
MARELCO Power Systems Inc. United States
Keithley Instruments United States
pv recycling, llc United States
DC Power Systems United States
CSA International United States
EBARA Technologies Incorporated United States
Yankee Environmental Systems United States
PanelClaw, Inc. United States
Ningbo Solar Electric Power Co., Ltd./ Nbsolar USA United States
Beautiful World LLC United States
LumaSense Technologies United States
AMSC American Superconductor United States
Hukseflux USA Inc. United States
GF Piping Systems United States
World Cal, Inc. United States
CourierTronics United States
Solmetric Corporation United States
SierraTherm Production Furnaces, Inc. United States
US Digital United States
MGI Electronics, LLC United States
ASYS Group Americas Inc. United States
Satcon Technology Corporation United States
Custom Rollforming Corp. - Solar Division United States
PV Powered United States
Austrian Trade Commission United States
Solberg Filtration & Separation United States
DB Schenker United States
Semilab United States
Ferro Electronic Materials United States
US Solar Distributing, Inc. United States
Krannich Solar Inc. United States
PV Contractor, Inc. United States
Voltaix, LLC United States
Ferrotec (USA) Corporation United States
Allwin 21 Corp. United States
Reis Robotics USA Inc. United States
Austin Camber of Commerce United States
Indium Corporation United States
Gemu Valves, Inc. United States
P.S.G Wilden Pump United States
Spire Corporation United States
AZZ Galvanizing Services United States
Intevac, Inc. United States
Sefar, Inc. United States
Pacific Gas & Electric Co. United States
Shin-Etsu Silicones United States
Quality Transformer and Electronics United States
Aztec Washer Company United States
FAFCO, Inc. United States
Nanofree Inc. United States
Unistrut Energy Solutions United States
Shoals Technologies Group United States
National Renewable Energy Laboratory United States
Nordson EFD LLC United States
Intevac, Inc. United States
KLA-Tencor United States
Angstrom Sciences, Inc. United States
Low mass is key to defense.
Field operations. Hot/cold, sandstorms, safety - if bullet hits battery you don't want it to blow up.
Ola: Coming from upcycle team. In 10 years, cause recycle, reuse? Could have globally viable market.
Happening today. Ping me, I'll find conference in FL, March/May. Big automobile battery recycling.
5:21 Jose: Review ETIR. Tues session on ETIR. Define Space well. Finish 2 pages on Friday afternoon.
Bo: Send me an e-mail. Can't guarantee I'll respond on the same day. Will send you a PDF.
First off, just wanted to say we're asking for an outline on Friday. Big part of it is to describe the problem space you've decided to focus on. I knew going into this, the phrases we were using, \"Home Energy\" but it is up to you to decide what problems you are addressing.
One pass through this kind of matrix:
Various exponential technologies over here.
And the exponential technologies, one way to look at them is to look at the different tracks: AI, nano, biotech, materials - they may or may not apply- just ways of generating ideas.
What ETIR does is have different statements of your problem -
low cost systems
different ways of describing what you have been looking at
different scales - large, household, community
Start to identify potential where some of these things
Say, lighting - biolumenescence might apply.
What we are looking for in the outline form - some breaking up of the problem.
List BY NAME things you are pursuing.
By seeing this outline, we can come back and say, offer some suggestions,
\"Have you considered this area ...\" if you want to.
Section 3 - just a statement of the problem, breaking it up into these different spaces.
Section 4 would be just a list of exponential technologies, not described in any detail.
That's what we are looking for by Friday.
Alex: Range of problems?
Eric: I don't want to constrain you - in the 20 range. Wide variations.
In the full ETIR, you might describe some in details, others just a paragraph.
What that does - shows you have taken problem, refined it enough to make some sense of it.
Looked at all the different opportunities where tech is changing rapidly.
Find where things might be changing faster than people realize now.
Suggest \"someone else can follow this up ...\"
Alex: Can have exp tech, but not applied yet.
Eric: Maybe robots won't help on low cost -- yet.
Maybe no connection there. But maybe a sensor that is very expensive now, within 10 years will be cheap enough that you could build it into a lightbulb. Exp - increasing performance for lower cost - could enable something that people don't think of right now.
Sort of a check mark: you've agreed on scope. And list of areas you are going to address.
Gives us a chance to help you and give feedback.
Jose: How much, in this matrix form? or written form?
Eric: In document:
1 1/2 on problem. Just listed/stated.
Perhaps 8 sentences. Set of lines/ aspect of problem we are looking at.
Maybe the names of 10, 15, 20 things that might be considered, down here. Another couple pages of that.
Not a fixed - you don't have to address every one. Something to start with, to give us an idea of what your thinking is.
Bioluminescent lights. That's all you say. Help you find references on that.
If later, you decide, not that important. That's OK.
In finaly report, might just get a half page write up.
Lauren has ratings, near term, cost effective, exp changing, risks/problems in adopting. Good layers. Main thing for Friday is to get refine problem statement and areas to look at.
Jose: Emem - your question of the day? You bring it today.
Eric: See the value in going through this process?
Jose: Just getting the overview. Define the problem space carefully. Need to begin on this seriously.
Juan: OK. Thank you. [applause]
Jose: One of our faculty died today. Had a heart attack arriving in London.
10:15 am - 10:30 am: Coffee Break (drink lots of it:-)
10:30 am - 11:45 am: Eric Wesoff, GreenTech Media (http://www.gtmresearch.com/analysts)
11:45 am - 12:00 pm: Energy Team Project Time
8:40 am At breakfast:
We may already have grid parity - depending on capital structure.
Numbers are related to \"disadvantageous\" capital structure.
Not a 60/40 deal, cost drops down.
Latest CSP + tranmission (relatively small cost) is there.
All comes down to financing
Concentrated solar power (CSP)
Need government initiative like superhighways.
CA dispatches every 5 minutes. Other states dispatch every hour.
Mostly a policy challenge.
Jose: What do you focus on?
One heavy teaching quarter.
75% is oil/gas research.
Jose: I'm a oil/gas person, but moving into renewables.
Now large scale solar.
Optimization of placement, mitigation.
Jose: Spanish solar company connection.
Good people locally. Brightsource. VP would be fantastic speaker.
Really really good view of that.
Jose: For team, smaller scale.
Lots of options
Jose: Polaris Ventures, funding solar ventures.
10 years ago, no VC money in energy
Very few are courageous. Very risk averse investing. Follow Vinod Khosla.
Last couple years, been disappointed.
When Vinod and KP moved to biofuels ...
I said, This is a dead end.
Jose: Hype of H.
Jose: Good that you mention that. Not many have caught up with that.
I'd invest in non-convential oil.
Jose: But not in BP. I visited, they have H filling station. I was surprised.
May have a H highway in CA.
Jose: SU = Sleepless University.
That is normal. When I was a grad student at Stanford, I had many sleepless nights.
Jose: Several Stanford. Steven Schneider. Mark Jacobsen.
Good friend of mine.
Jose: High School friends from Venezuela.
We talk about our Catholic backgrounds.
America's cup in NZ
9:23 Going to talk about oil, not renewables. Huge part of question in fossil fuels.
In next 10 years will move into that, rather than renewables.
I can talk for 5 hours.
Also means, if you have further questions - as long as you are learning something. Can come back, finish.
Jose: Intro of Adriana/NASA.
A (Brief) State of Energy Address
Margot Gerritsen, Stanford University
= Page 1 =
Unfortunate advertisements of the past
Awareness of global warming.
Before I was born, people talked about energy in different ways.
Humble Energy ad - boasting they can melt glaciers.
= Page 2 =
Main drive: find ways to power the world sustainably
Energy provision and balance is a *global* issue,
and requires decisions based on global perspectives:
There is no such thing as sustainable energy
if it means exploiting other lands
My drive: 5 yrs in NZ.
Statement symbolizes finding balance.
One thing that is driving me. Everything is put in perspective.
Whatever you do in Energy provision is a global issue.
Many were very locally focused. Example: biofuels.
Several states are very important agricultural states -
for energy independence - no global implications considered.
OR any implications for other areas.
No one addressed water. Just narrow focus.
No thought about soybean replacement.
Surplus soybeans are food aid.
If you go to this source of energy, no more food aid.
Would be devastating to Africa.
No one thought of this.
Whatever large scale solutions you think of - you cannot do this nation by nation.
MG: We have 70 m arable acres. Most semi-arable.
Lots of soil quality. Can use for awhile without fertilizers,
but lack is water.
You'd need several 100 m acres for cellulosic.
Import water from Canada.
Infrastructure would have to be very large.
= Page 3 =
Comb. renew. & waste
Geothermal, solar, wind
Comb. renew. & waste 6
Geothermal, solar, wind
\u00b1 7 Bbbl/yr
= Page 4 =
Predicted US Consumption (EJ)
Trajectories - oil and gas continue to grow.
Look at number of cars - constantly increasing.
This is what will happen if trends continue.
I'm hoping for a paradigm shift.
Car sharing -- not happening.
in largest part of country, still car-based society.
I spend a lot of time in the mid-west.
These things are happening very solidly.
Incredible resistance to change.
Much more than here.
Majority of population does not think the way we do.
Listen to Fox news - this is what the majority listen to.
Heavily support oil/gas and coal industry.
I'm not as optimistic -
Paradigm shift would be very difficult to do.
Oil is $2 bn per day.
Vested interests are just enormous.
Shareholder companies - don't want to give that up.
Go to oil/gas conferences. They have lobbyists.
Marko: Price per unit for energy.
MG: All part of this.
Got to International Energy Agency.
Lot of thought behind it. Assumes oil price goes up.
Does not just extrapolate growth %.
50 2025: 150
1970 1980 1990 2002 2010 2025
= Page 5 =
Oil Producing Countries
Top producers: Saudi-Arabia, Russia, US, Iran
Most reserves held by nationals, not majors
Source: International Energy Assocation
People think OPEC is supplier.
Only 40% actually comes from OPEC.
20% of imports come from Canada.
Much from Mexico, Nigeria.
Used to be Venezuela
= Page 6 =
US imports (3/08) perhaps surprising
OPEC accounts for approximately 40%
Source: Energy Information Administration (www.eia.doe.gov)
Nigeria - now about 12%
Iraq 6% - clear why we are there
Mostly Canada and Mexico.
Canadian source has grown.
Non conventional oil.
1.5 m b/day - of that, huge part from tar sands.
= Page 7 =
Oil/gas fields in the US
Source: Mast et al., 1998; www.eia.doe.gov/neic/infosheets/crudeproduction.html
Still 3rd/ 4th largest producer in the world.
We still have quite a lot.
Gas red on the map.
Lots of red in Appalacia.
Oil in South.
Gas in North.
Los Angeles - oil wells onSanta Monica Blvd. Outside looks like office building.
= Page 8 =
Production and Import US
Source: Energy Information Administration (www.eia.doe.gov)
Production declined since 1970s.
More a question of oil price.
Mammoth tankers came on the market - made global market.
More pipelines were built.
Global market price - oil price dynamic is very different.
had play makers.
That role has gone now.
Very little excess capacity.
Per b price was just higher in US than in Saudi.
So US production went down.
Gradually, oil became more expensive to produce in US.
Easy to produce reservoirs are declining.
Huppert - USGS - very simple model. Completely symmetric.
Production follow same line as the decrease later. An exponential.
Doesn't make much sense - very lucky to predict peak.
Needless to day, we have a decline in easy to produce oil.
We'll never go back to the $12 / b in 2001
On average, price increases.
Saudi is producing over 10 m b/day. Getting a good price.
We need so much more, there is market for more expensive oil.
Jose: Ven has 1.3 t barrels of oil. Will overtake Saudi in terms of amount of oil. So there is plenty of oil.
In terms of T barrels. Using about 30 B barrels / yr.
Total already consumed, about 1 T barrels.
Roughly - other sources 1 T each.
Tremendous amount of alternative
heavy oil / Bitumen. Very viscous - unless simulated. Put heat in. Steam injection. Heating via in-situ. Some of oil that is very heavy is close to the surface - very \"young\" oil. Not consolidated to rock. Just scoop it up and melt the oil out by pouring hot water over it.
Ven has a lot.
Canada has a lot.
Look at shale oil -
Most in sandstone today. Large pores.
Shale is more compact, harder to get things out. 1 T, 2 T - where? In Rockies.
Not saying this with a lot of enthusiasm. Hard, energy intensive to get out.
Footprint of production.
Oils have guck - heavy metals - you want to leave in the ground.
Tar sand production has high environmental price - not to mention the burning of it.
= Page 9 =
US annual discovery, production declining
Source: Laherrere, Jan 2003
= Page 10 =
World annual discovery, production declining?
Finding costs and lifting costs are steadily rising:
Easy to produce oil is certainly declining
Source: Laherrere, Jan 2003
= Page 11 =
Higher oil prices unlock more resources
Not sure if that is a good thing (!) and unlocking takes time and $$$
Source: International Energy Agency, Resources to Reserves, page 17, 2005
All depends on oil price. More you will unlock these resources.
$70-80 / b drives alternatives.
Heavy oil price does not mean energy is going to be killed.
Incredible enthusiasm in oil to go to these resources.
= Page 12 =
Decline of easiest to produce reservoirs pushes industry to
\u008f Invest in Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) techniques !
\u008f Move into more hostile environments (off-shore, North) !
\u008f Explore and produce non-conventional oils !
New recovery techniques. A lot of oil stays in the ground after \"easy\" production is finished. 70-80% of oil still there.
Move into more extremes - the North.
When Berring Strait is free of ice - tremendous expansion.
= Page 13 =
and upgrades oil in-situ
Oil recovery - stuff I've worked on.
CO2 injection is used to drive more oil out of reservior.
CO2 and oil mix. Oil face swells and viscosity goes down.
You can separate CO2 and pump it back in.
Putting about 20 Mtons of CO2 into ground in West Texas.
Biggest in the world. We need Giga-tons to make an impact, but still ...
= Page 14 =
US shale gas
1996 - 0.3 tcf
2006 - 1.1 tcf
4185 new wells
Shale oil produced in Estonia (70% world), Brazil, China mostly
Source: Energy Information Administration (www.eia.doe.gov)
Emem: Water injection?
Very common. Not considered alternative.
More about shale gas. Incredible initiative - get gas to replace coal.
Half of the carbon footprint of coal. Definitely a benefit.
Washington DC is divided between solar/wind and shale gas.
50 states. Every one has 2 senators.
number connected to oil/gas is - it is the majority.
Progressive bills get support in House.
10% of US population in CA.
Get to Senate, changed a lot.
Carbon bill - very strongly impact, some say hijacked by coal industry.
Other shale gas - China, Estonia and Brazil.
China relying on coal - esp dirty coal. Has lots of impurities.
See wells that cost $100 m.
Never one below $1 m
Jose: Those were my home for 10 years.
= Page 15 =
Oil Sands (or Tar Sands) ???
Estimated resources trillions of barrels
\u008f Only large-scale commercial oil sands industry !
\u008f 2006 production 1.25 Mbbl/day (47% total Canadian prod.) !
\u008f Orinoco oil largest known accumulation oil sand in the world !
\u008f Production currently difficult from lack of local gas !
has line of legislatoin
\"every imported oil must have carbon footprint below conventional oil\"
No one has defined \"conventional oil\"
Well to wheel?
Tar sands have 20% penalty
Whether large scale regulation - as effective as conservation?
What you will see coming up - voice, \"stop oil sand imports into the US\"
Had passionate debate.
Have to stop it because it is so dirty.
Cut off imports with friendly neighbor.
Are you going to stop production? No. It is a global market.
Naive to think if we say, \"we don't want it\" that production would stop.
If you cut this off, where does marginal barrel come from. Replacement oil could be dirtier.
Lots of political decisions.
Just crazy European Union ideas.
Green movement in Europe - 10% of liquid fuels from biofuels.
didn't think about Europe not being able to support this at this grand scale.
Where to get it?
Indonesia and Borneo deforested to grow palm oil.
First signals -
another local decision that was local.
Scandal - only green on paper.
Lots of decisions like this, have to be very careful.
Emem: Palm oil. Nigeria - people became rich.
$2 / barrel to produce oil.
Europe stopped using Palm oil.
Deforestation effects whole world.
Why don't poor countries - who don't sell oil, sell palm oil.
MG: No decision you can make on energy that is positive for everybody.
I'd like to see the coal industry go down.
Coal mining states in Congress object. You must say, yeah, you've got a point - that would be hard.
You cannot do this without looking at the local decisions having other consequences.
Most politicians only think regionally.
This is the problem.
People want to stay with the status quo.
Sceptical of paradigm shift technology.
Political / social cultural pattern.
For food team - doesn't make sense to support rice industry in semi-arid California. Stop it? That would hurt people.
= Page 16 =
Our barrels and cubic ft come with increasing
environmental (and cultural) impacts
We have to be ultra-careful in choosing location and
production techniques of fossil fuels
= Page 17 =
Not a Pretty Picture. So, Now What?
Urgent need for oil demand reduction: Save, baby, save !
\u008f Higher mpg cars and lower mileage per capita !
\u008f Increase efficiency of existing power and energy systems !
But demand will continue to grow (!!!!!!)
\u008f Population growth, economic growth in China, India, Latin America !
Move from oil to other liquid fuels?
\u008f ! Gas, biodiesel, ethanol, hydrogen
Move to electric based transport?
\u008f ! Electricity generated by gas, coal, nuclear
\u008f ! Electricity generated by renewables
As much as possible, use local, renewable resources
and do it responsibly
Strong movement against coal. Would be replaced by shale gas.
Most coal states have shale gas.
VA - special case.
Remember election last time.
People will be careful what they do.
We are just energy inefficient.
We say, we use more energy because distances are further.
In Reagan years, past oil crisis in 80s. Dismantled all that.
Average energy consumption went up, but not in CA.
Large distances - stayed at same level.
Eric Wessoff: That's the Art Rosenfeld effect. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rosenfeld_Effect
In the 70's enormous amounts of industry left CA is reason we used a lot less.
MG: Agricultural - 30% elec. used in agriculture.
EW: Jevon's paradox. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox
Consumers are not rational. Make it more efficient - people use more.
Save, baby, save is better than drill, baby, drill.
MG: Demand will continue to grow. Population growth.
Hoping projections are too high.
Latin America - huge market.
Brazil - looking at their total sugar cane production
If we take over our bad habits, we are in trouble there.
H hype for awhile. Quite expensive to build now.
Very slow to adopt some of these technologies.
Right now, really, increasingly less and less need for intermediate.
Large scale solar.
If I were the boss and everybody would listen,
I'd go to electric based transport with renewables.
Tony Seva - very close to grid parity with financing.
Spent a year talking to stakeholders. CEC here in CA.
Most challenges are political, regulatory challenges.
Don't discount that.
Everybody talks about costs.
Lot holding us back is the regulatory framework.
CA is a complete mess on all levels.
How to change that? Don't know.
= Page 18 =
How About Gas or Coal for Electricity?
\u008f Easiest way to increase !
electricity supply is with coal
to production ratio
\u008f Gas probably peaks after !
oil, but trends similar
\u008f How about clean coal? !
Carbon capture and storage?
Source: BP Statistics, 2001 (oil: does not include nonconventional oil)
= Page 19 =
Is Carbon Capture and Storage a Solution?
Carbon dioxide could be stored in
\u008f ! Oil and gas reservoirs: enhanced oil and gas recovery.
\u008f ! Deep formations that contain salt water.
\u008f ! Coal beds (adsorbed CO replaces adsorbed CH )
What did MJ talk about?
Colleagues are proponents. Store co2. Capture from a power plant.
Ineffective to capture at car-level.
Put it in depeleted oil/gas reservoir.
Coal bed. Methane there.
Absorbs CO2 and methane production. \"Enhanced coalbed methane\"
Saline aquafer. look at capacity - this is very large. Less for others.
Problem with sequestration - for most we understand. How long does it take for the CO2 to be really trapped. May be a plume that finds \"leak\"
Give it long enough in saline aquafer. It dissolves.
Assessing the risk of leakage.
Very few- non truly commercial project. Difficult to deal with this uncertainty.
Suppose CO2 finds it way out. 25 miles away. Comes out and kills people. Bubble kills people in a hollow.
Generator station that was checked by 2 maintenance people.
One never came up, the other went to check and never came back.
Concentrated CO2 is very poisonous.
Risk is small. put in perspective.
= Page 20 =
CCS / Sequestration Not Widespread
Sleipner (North Sea): 1 Mt/yr
In Salah (Algeria): 1 Mt/yr
In West Texas: 20 Mt/yr
(E missions from 1 GW Coal Plant: 6 Mt/yr)
Huge, huge infrastructure we have to build.
20 Mton injection per year for oil recovery.
Just one plant is emitting 6 Mton per year.
To make impact, need to sequester Gigaton.
What will outcome be?
How much could it help us?
Compare to other measures?
Not the silver bullet.
Taken up by fossil fuel industry because it can make coal sound clean.
= Page 21 =
Is CCS Practical?
Technology is available (thanks to petroleum industry), but
\u008f To stabilize at current rate we need 25,000 Sleipners !
\u201cARRA provides $3.4 billion for additional research and development on
fossil energy technologies. A portion of this funding is expected to be used
to fund projects under the Clean Coal Power Initiative program, focusing on
projects that capture and sequester greenhouse gases. [..] additional 1
gigawatt of coal capacity with CCS will be stimulated by 2017\u201d
Should we invest this much? Is \"clean coal\" an oxymoron?
Will it only \"sustain\" vested interests?
Lot of investments. 100s of people working.
Wish these people were in solar, smart grid designs.
one development people are pushing for
Good for some local solutions.
To make fully scalable,
Jose: J Trent Omega
I'm talking about the global scale.
Low hanging fruits. Where would you invest? Not algae.
Would be drop on the plate - maybe big.
Not in the same league as large scale solar.
Time to market. Can make some difference locally.
If doing resource assessment at global scale - how much out
Very good alternatives.
Wind in the Dakotas. Energy density could be quite high.
Reasonable to implement.
Marko: Calculations you could give us?
Ask Tony. Lots around.
If you have a DNI - Direct Incidence of solar. We have 1000s of sq miles.
You would need 200 x 200 mile area to supply the energy of the US.
A bit difficult to make estimates.
Various solar energy maps.
Requirements - land grade. Contiguous area. Can't have fragmented.
Cost per unit.
Some articles. Most too narrow.
Nothing out there that is a really fair comparisons.
Lots of comparisons of apples and pears.
Not considering subsidies. Transports.
Sounds feasible - but hard to do.
Attempted, but easy to find holes.
I do some of this myself - water comparison study.
Using USGS, NREL.
A lot of the NGOs, trying to come up with assessment.
JG: Simulation of human brain. What about actor-based simulation?
Ultimately, brain is simple. With people, market/decision - very difficult to predict. Uncertainty estimation.
Marko: Where would you invest?
Oil and gas.
Field in West Texas.
Solar - some money.
Dicey year in 2010.
Make or break year for CSP. Globally for next few years.
Jose: Oil and gas. PetroChina.
First company 2007 market cap of $1 T. Then dropped after a few days.
Want to go through other energy sources.
Mark Jacobson talked about wind.
= Page 22 =
Electricity Using Nuclear?
In US, 100 reactors supply 9% of electricity
Utilities Ready With New Projects
\u008f ! Cost competitive*
\u008f ! Resources high, but debated
\u008f ! Very low GHG
\u008f ! Need solutions for long term nuclear waste storage*
\u008f ! Public fear for accidents, proliferation
390M$ for enrichment, decontamination, decommissioning
*External costs not included in costs per KWh for any resource
Never been friend of H highway.
Looking at larger scale solutions.
You'll hear more about nuclear.
17 plans being debated, permitted.
Politically too difficult.
Greens in Germany - they decreed that they needed to stop nuclear production.
Where do you get electricity from then? We import it. Where from? France - mostly nuclear based. Or Poland - mostly coal based.
But did not show up in carbon footprint.
US President has not been mentioning nuclear as much as Obama has.
Marko: Nuclear is linear on your chart.
Permits are not to add, just replace.
Not that much. But we'll get some new ones. it depends. Plants take some years to build.
With CSP - direct competition.
If CSP does not make it- we'll know in a year's time.
Depends on how you count. Very difficult to make cost estimates.
Fuel component is very low compared to capital cost.
Depends on loan guarantee.
With government guarantee, lower loan rate.
External costs? Long term storage is not counted.
Marko: And cost of that?
Very expensive. Who is going to pay?
Other than risk -
Oil spill. Interviewed by newspapers -
Not impact on oil industry.
offshore oil/gas won't go away.
Will be impact on nuclear.
Risk of something happening is very low. Consequences are huge.
Problem people have had with nuclear.
If nuclear goes wrong, could be very bad.
Low risk systems that could lead to large scale risks in the end.
Same with CO2.
Risk estimation, extremely hard.
People have strange ideas on risk.
= Page 23 =
Use Renewable Resources
Annual available energy & consumption
as fraction of total annual world consumption
Source: W. Hermann, Quantifying Global Exergy Res., 2005
Put things in perspective.
What is out there in terms of resources.
Order of magnitude.
Wind data from Jacobsen and other experts.
This what we have and what it looks like.
First number is factor +/- 50% or so, as fraction of wind now.
Wind could be extracted technologically -45x the energy we need.
Second number is amount we are using.
Solar is 1000s
Ocean is relatively low - technically hard.
Geothermal - still technologically difficult.
Hydro - interesting 0.3, 0.02 - closest. We are 7-8%. Huge for an energy system. In many parts of world we say hydro is maxed out
Micro hydro good for developing world
Photosynth - very small %
Obviously from this we should try to tap into solar.
Nuclear - interesting article - claims it could never be part of solution - run out of Uranium. Huge, just not explored for them.
Based on current, minimal exploration.
= Page 24 =
Specialized Biomass Crops
Emphasis on US cellulosics, exploitation tropics controversial
Photosynthesis captures less than 1% of solar energy
Photovoltaic cells beat plants convincingly by factor of 15-25
Scalability? Conversion efficiency? Crop yield?
Land use conflicts? Water security? GHG?
Environmental impacts? Fertilizers?
Is it a reasonable local solution in (semi-)tropical areas?
Development (loan guarantee); production tax credits extended till
2014; science ($1.6B total, stipulation: lifecycle GHG reduction)
Very controversial. Don't believe in large scale application of this.
Cellulosic ethanol. Captured solar energy. Using stored solar as biomass source. % you get out is very small compared to PV. An order to two in magnitude better to use PV than plants.
In the US, pushed a lot. Incredible public debate, and support. Then people say, doesn't help carbon footprint.
Money going into cellulosic ethanol, algae - carbon seq gets 2x as much.
= Page 25 =
Geothermal: Traditional, pumps, dry hot rock
Dry hot rock uses existing technologies from petroleum industry
Resources being explored, controversy
Loan guarantee; production tax credits; science ($1.6B total)
Source: Los Alamos National Laboratory, R. Horne
Will hear more in two areas:
Heat pumps put on buildings like schools , offices some homes.
Over 1 m in US.
Geothermal heat pump area growing.
less intrusive - nice market.
Dry hot rock. Go deep under the surface - several miles down.
Not a biggy - we've been doing that forever.
Drill 2 wells.
Put down cold fluid.
Deepest well is 35,000 ft now.
= Page 26 =
Wind Cost Competitive and Growing Fast
Top producers (2009)
\u008f ! US 35,000 MW
\u008f ! Germany 25,000 MW
\u008f ! China 25,000 MW
\u008f ! Spain 19,000 MW
Total end 2009 158,000 MW
1-2 million turbines for all US demand (350x350 mi with 10 MW/km )
Main challenges: robustness of large turbines; transmission availability and
pricing; intermittency; policy consistency to build mature wind industry
Transmission (loan guarantee,$4,5B delivery/reliability); production
tax credit to 2013; loan guarantee; science funding (1.6B$ total)
You've heard Mark J.
He is biggest proponent of wind.
Cost functions. Always debating. Just growing. Taking care of itself.
Cost competitive and a lot of places. Consolidated itself.
Needs subsidy climate.
One number - to supply US demand 1-2 m turbines.
10 MW / sq km
Regulatory framework and policy.
Renewable only requires subsidies?
Fossil fuels have tremendous subsidies.
Solar generates above the ground.
Gas - below surface - tax breaks.
If you say \"subsidy\"
Marko: in US
Everywhere. You need to do comparison from level playing field.
Jose: Invite Margot to be consultant.
Drove Mark's Tesla.
MG: I have a bike.
Jose: Asking, visit lab at Stanford. Combined trip. Running late.
= Page 27 =
= Page 28 =
The Sunny Energy Resource
Must be main target because of abundance of solar energy
Estimated energy density 30-100 MW/km
US energy supply requires anywhere between 100x100 to 200x200
mi with current efficiencies
= Page 29 =
= Page 30 =
Large Scale Solar Not a New Idea
= Page 31 =
Renewed Interest thanks to Incentives
= Page 32 =
A Solar Rush - maybe
= Page 33 =
Solar Faces Some Challenges
Challenges for central large-scale solar projects
In the short term
\u008f ! Siting
\u008f ! Transmission
\u008f ! Financing (create level playing field)
In the longer term
\u008f ! Improve efficiencies
\u008f ! Develop effective storage and integration systems
Transmission; production tax credits to 2014; loan guarantee;
Science ($1.6B total); but not a Marshall plan
= Page 34 =
Are We on the Right Track? hmm
We will be dependent on fossil fuels for next few decades
There are (too) strong vested interests: facing big fight
Urgent need for demand reduction
Stimulus: weatherization (5B$); efficiency (>3B$)
Also: Higher MPG standards; building codes
Urgent need for solar (wind, geothermal) and electric transport
Rely on local and sustainable resources, produced responsibly
Lithium F6, for $25,000. Will kick the ass of Sedan or Volt or Leaf.
Incredibly vertically integrated company.
Factory is a mile long.
Every box is a BYD product.
7.8 MPG to 11.1 MPG
[plug into coal or nuclear plant]
Still have a carbon problem.
Ain't the answer.
I drive a \"green\" car [in color only]
- A few conclusions
* No one silver bullet - the future will be a patchwork
* A GW of energy does not come cheap
* Unforeseen consequences? Wind power plant - so erratic, must be backed up by gas plant.
* Policy, policy, policy
China has clear policy they can implement, boom.
US has 1000s of lawyers blocking
Transmission - takes 20 years.
China says, start here, end here.
JG: Behind the meter?
Love the idea - information on periphery
Batteries cost a lot of money. They can't afford it.
Theory sounds spectacular.
Fart simulator iPhone app.
4 22 yr olds -> in 3 months, you have a product.
CES - community energy storage.
Cost - first in costs.
Solar on roof - 20 years of electricty up front.
Emem: Generator. $14,000 for generator.
Then buy diesel.
$400 per month.
Ola: More than that.
$6K per year.
So solar is cheap.
Solar competes with diesel.
Grid is never there.
Mercy: Africa - Nigeria is special case.
Emem: Grid is not constant.
Ola: Moving towards grid parity.
Eric: Was this fun?
Gary: Same question.
Eric: Better birth control.
Change behavior and population.
Technology and policy.
How do you change the energy policy of a billion people.
Jose: We have $4000
CAES? Heat issue.
Expanding gas gets cold.
Low cost energy storage - both centralized and distributed.
I want to be a dictator and depopluate the Earth.
Biggest user of electricity is the utility - they lose 7% in transmission.
I squared R losses.
Eric: Mild celebrity. The zero billion dollar.
No body has made it work profitably.
When silicon is cheap, value proposition is fragile.
Just more expensive.
CSP - multi GW success.
May be economies of scale.
Direct Normal Incidence - DNI must be high.
Not a lot of clouds.
Brightsource - 2 GW contract with PG&E
Stupidest idea ever: Solaryn. Convert energy, beam.
$10,000/kg. Maybe someone can make this work.
Convert to RF or microwave - amount of energy put out, all dispersed.
Raw radiowaves, convert back to electricity.
Becomes 0.001 of energy collected.
Ola: Mine from the moon. Bring to Librarion point.
Marko: Lot of companies. Not focus on one thing. Find higher solution.
Marko: Lot of fields. Lot of startups. Should look outside the box - or higher level.
Eric: One other interesting thing.
O Power http://www.opower.com/
Send, electric bill. You open it, write check. You think about it for 10seconds and you are done.
When yo uused power. When you used a lot of power.
Making money from the utility.
JUst that information lowers the electric bill by 3%.
35 m in rev today from utility.
They own the electric bill.
Avg bill $150/m
Aggregate can shut several coal plants.
Amount of GW is about 1/3 of global PV industry.
Software co, paper, a bill and behavior modification
MAybe answer is not material or toy, but way to change behavior.
35 m in rev, saving 1-3%. Could be 5% savings.
Jose: How to spend money.
Eric: Not on speakers.
I write 2,000 words a day.
More than glad to stay engaged.
Greentech media puts on events - you are invited. We charge people, but we don't charge you.
References relating to ETIR:
Here is an excellent FORMAT for an on-line report:
when Konicki had rooftop panels installed on his house in Webster and signed an 18-year contract with SunRun, the California company that owns and maintains the equipment, to be his main electricity vendor. He figures he will save 8 cents per kilowatt hour in future energy costs \u2014 taking 50 percent or more off his monthly bill, which has averaged about $66 \u2014 while helping save the planet.
Keep in mind if you want these areas for the outline
- CO2 to energy - Joule technologies is one co in this category
- waste to energy - will be big everywhere but particularly in developing world
Methane from - landfills and - coal-bed methane are two examples
Electricity Crisis Hobbles an India Eager to Ascend
Micro grid: Finding community-level energy sharing way
KAMENETZ, ANYA. \"Why the Microgrid Could Be the Answer to Our Energy Crisis.\" Fast Company 2009. Print.
- \"On the roof, powering this cozy scene, sits a half-kilowatt microwind turbine and 5.5 kilowatts' worth of solar panels. The system was roughly half paid for by a $25,000 grant from the Massachusetts Technology Collaborative, which administers a fund collected from a surcharge on every electric bill in the state. The solar installation can produce two to three times as much energy as Butler's home needs, meaning she can run her meter backward and sell a surplus back to the grid, a procedure called \"net metering.\"
- Butler can bank power in the batteries in her basement -- they hold enough to run her house for a week -- and sell it back to the grid at times of peak use.
- the payback on Butler's $60,000 system at four-and-a-half years or less.
This study therefore seeks to provide the first full and systematic, if preliminary, public synthesis of how making electrical resources the right size can minimize their costs and risks. Its main findings are:
*The most valuable distributed benefits typically flow from financial economics\u2014the lower risk of smaller modules with shorter lead times, portability, and low or no fuel-price volatility. These benefits often raise value by most of an order of magnitude (factor of ten) for renewables, and by about 3\u20135-fold for nonrenewables.
Chart: Billions of clean tech investments by State
Produces jobs: Venture capital has proven to be the fastest, most efficient driver of job creation. A Cleantech Group analysis in conjunction with environmental policy advocates Environmental Entrepreneurs (E2), estimated that 2,700 direct jobs are created for every $100M in venture investment, or about $37,000 per job on average.
In-situ resources: Using in-situ energy sources and resources.
The Fundamentals of Sustainable Development & Carbon Reduction Online Seminar
e.g. In Nigeria, the government energy policy impose heavy tax on imported energy generating devices.
THE PLACE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY IN THE NIGERIAN ENERGY SECTOR (2009)
Renewable Energy For Rural Development : The Nigerian Perspective (2005)
DIY energy: Inventing simple and cheap way of energy generation
Hybrid: Harnessing multi-source for energy generation
Sterling Engine: Using stirling engine to catch the wasted heat energy
e.g. Catching the heat energy form Chimney or auto mobile
Compressed Air Energy Storage: Using CAES
e.g. using wasted CDs for energy generation, Using feathers for small windmill
Helium Balloon: Flying balloon with small windmills to catch strong wind from high altitude
Making wind: Facilitating wind-power generation by adding specially designed structure or terrain
Viral Web Site: Spreading our idea or Gathering more ideas from the public to make it more effective.
Bio Batteries: Finding bio-chemical ways to store energy
Auto + Grid energy storage: Using batteries of electric cars to supply extra energy to the grid during the peak time
Robotics - Using robotics to save energy.
e.g. AI cars convoying themselves
Recapturing wasted Heat Energy
GE's Organic Rankine Cycles : GE is working on it and it is applicable to reciprocating engines, small-scale gas turbines and industrial waste heat sources
Energy conservation: Using technology to conserve energy
e.g. Using infrared camera to show how the energy heat energy is leaking, Using IT to educate people
Energy conservation policies of many countries
Thermal Leak Detector Saves Up to 20 Percent in Energy Costs
People based energy conservation
Emem insists this reference is wrong:
Vaccaro, Alfredo, editor. \u201cReliable Electric Power for Developing Countries\u201d
\u201cRoughly 350\u2013400 million households, or 40% of the population of developing countries, have no access to electricity.\u201d http://www.ieeehtc.org/files/Reliable_Electricity_Challenge_Description.pdf
3:30 - 4:30 pm: Energy Team ProjectS (John, Alaeddine, Jose, Eric, etc.)
Descibe cool companies.
OR MIT Energy initiative.
Q: We are try to identify problem that effects 1 bn. Design product / service, what should we work on?
Sorry not prepared.
Q: Home generation.
We've invested in a professor whose vision is to use solar.
Need to store it.
Not a good use for that. Hydrogen.
Electricity to split water - hydrolysis.
Reason you do that is for the huge energy density of H.
Like propane tank. Residential scale.
System would produce elect at night.
Completely clean water. All impurities left behind.
H converted to fuel - ethanol.
Luke: Efficiency - electrolysis and loss in recombination?
In solar world - those who talk efficiency? Max 22% Space solar 40%
Other kind who talk cost, pennies per kW.
Not efficiency play.
10,000x the energy is completely wasted.
0% efficiency now.
This innovation is KOH equivalent.
Minimal cost, pH 7
Not big machines, but small residential.
Jose: Video on portal.
If you want something to be dirt cheap, make it out of dirt.
Don't need stainless steel.
Catalyst is Cobalt Phosphate.
Whole story aimed at low cost.
Another angle to defend against.
More money spent getting ready to process.
This guy's approach works with dirty water.
A billion people.
Sun catalytics. Very early. Solar water for off-grid residential.
Sunlight + water.
oxygen - stunning number need O2 to breathe.
Take H - a great chemical, make other materials.
Imagine a billion of those.
Emem: Thought. One problem with being able to sell to 1 bn people - affordable? Early adoptors have the economic power and credit in the US. What economic model would be used to enable people to buy?
Not even close to taking on that difficult problem.
We're trying to make world's cheapest electrolyzer. To help with that problem. Just focused on driving down cost.
Another project on agenda. Instead of solar cell ... integrate .. photos to H, skipping electricity. Or direct to liquid fuel. Might buy a little box that does this miracle.
Bob: You guys win world cup?
Gary: Omega - algae.
Gary: Algae platforms on the sea. Provide energy needs for coming years. Interesting, but point to keep on focusing on how to produce more - or change to more sustainable? Don't have time to do switch in time available.
Bob: Fuels from algae. Why not sustainable?
Bob: Closed loop.
Gary: Does it take it all? Completely clean process?
Bob: I'm an expert. we lost $10 m. Algae business. Very promising. Surprise we encountered was at the point of making the algae. What do you use it for? For sequestration, you bury it. What do they pay you? Nothing.
[ room becomes even more crowded ]
Jose: you are a sensation
Bob: Able to make algae. Take CO2 out, but no one will pay you. $30/ton in Europe.
Gary: Amount of algae platforms, surface impact would take all CO2 on whole earth?
Bob: Don't have math handy. We did the math for a large coal plant.
25,000 acres of greenhouses for the flue gasses of the coal plant.
Sounds huge, right. Surprise. It is huge. Revenue you could get for selling the algae - more valuable, plant food, rather than energy.
Could take it, burn it in the coal plant or convert to valuable motor fuels.
Feed and food = algae is worth 10x more. Swamps revenue from power plant.
Gary: Do you see the future trend to keep on focusing on fuel creation? Rather than switching to alternative source?
Bob: Fuel - hydrocarbons.
Mercy: Produce fuel from bacteria. Extract that oil, ...
Bob: Why don't you like that? CO2 from atmosphere. Sustainable fuel, CO2 where it goes in a circle.
Hydrocarbon or biofuel?
Gary: Way we should keep on thinking?
Bob: Biofuels are not clean - still produce CO2. Now I finally understand.
Real bad ones are hydrocarbons.
Not so bad, biofuels, renewable.
Higher, solar or nuclear. Those don't produce any CO2 at all.
We have investments in 3 solar. Hoping it comes along in next few years.
Has to be some phasing planned.
Won't all happen at once.
Big surprise is natural gas. 40% of carbon as oil
Just discovered (US) have just found 100 years of it, in the last year.
Progress on decarbonization - 100% to 40%.
Go from wood to coal to oil to gas to solar.
Each time, decarbonizing, step by step.
You are saying, jump to solar.
We don't know how.
Jose: Mercy ...
Eric: Deployed internet. Not from big players.
How to bring in revolution?
Bob: They'll eventually come around.
Eric: When they retire.
Bob: When they die. When they retire, they are still there voting.
The status quo is sometimes right: reliability, cost.
Because we are impatient, want to save the Earth, need solutions that run around the status quo.
Top form of energy is Negawatts.
David R: Candid feedback on micro nuclear reactors on ships?
Do that now. our aircraft carriers.
Nuclear is going to be very important. Not green. Hold against the greenies their obstructionism of nuclear. Rather than building big, $15 b nukes, small modular reactors (SMR) - one the size of a refridgerator to power a city of 10,000 for 10 years. Produces heat. Manufactured, instead of constructed.
Big reactors cannot be built here, must be built in Japan.
Small ones could be buried. No moving parts.
Bob: not really - if you go to pick it up, it will melt you.
Nine variations of this.
Why steal it?
Dirty bomb - amplify effects.
No weapons grade. Unless you had reprocessing.
Produce much less waste.
Hard to steal them.
There is a security concern - can't afford SWAT team, tank, ....
Very hard to steal. You bury them.
With improper gear - too hot.
If you break it open.
Jose: question order
Three things left:
Univ of Phoenix - 400,000 students. Growing rapidly. Distance learning based.
Don't have to go to Uni.
\"Here comes Phoenix\"
AT&T not the same company anymore
Harvard / MIT / ... all those universities to the extent they are set in their ways. They are in trouble.
[son going to Auckland]
Working with geophysicist - undersea hydrodynamics. Renewable? desalinization. Near land? So far out there?
Bob: Two kinds of nuke - fission and fusion.
One flys across the sky every day - keep it 93 m miles away OR build our own here.
Big fission reactor around Earth. Without 5 bn years to cool down - would be an ice ball if it were not having radioactive decay.
We should harvest geothermal - of which yours is exotic kind - vents at bottom of ocean.
Lot of it. Distributed.
Gateway technology there is drilling.
Erika: Tech - inexpensive - surface and near surface vents.
Bob: Then cap them. To capture the heat. Run it through the exchanger.
Complication -all this ocean involved.
Erika: will boil itself as it rises.
Bob: Startup - go to existing, abandoned oil wells. Later, out comes steam and hot water. 20-30 years, open well again, generate electricity.
Erika: In TX.
Bob: Yes, easier than bottom of the ocean.
Erika: Red Sea. Juan de Fuca. Does it pass the laugh test.
Bob: Geothermal is promising. Problem it is under the ocean. Two compliations.
Alex/Romania: Ray K says, only 7 years until solar efficiency.
Jose: 7 doublings. Maybe 20 years.
Bob: What is doubling? Installed solar.Doubles every 2 years. Like Moore's law. Whatever Ray K says is fine with me.
We have invested in 3 different companies in solar.
40 year payback for inverter that needed to be replaced due to lightning strike.
San/Korea: CSim trainedwith us. One of best talks here. You may have good opinion for policy in America. What is of the energy policy? what is bad? How make better?
Bob: Very important question. I'm not expert. Others disagree with what I say. DOE has good research program under Chu.
Flip side, notion of capturing the exernalities - very worried about - economy is very shaky. Shaky is optimistic. Burden of taxation, prices.
Increasing spending does not make me happy.
Prefer lower spending
so economy can lift itself up.
With economic activity we can grow our way out.
When economy flagging we cannot do much at all.
Jose: Two quick - Aladine - Masdar.
A: Solar. Among tech- space based. Design. Students might improve?
Efficiency of cars?
Try not to ask two questions? Forgotten both!
Your second question - we think silicon will be solar is done.
Negative on cadtel and more exotics.
Two silicon solar, no exotics.
One is multicrystaline. 1366 is lowering cost of mcry through manufacturing.
Other is doing mono, multi and amorphous silicon
Which form will be dominant.
Clearly dominant today is multcry
Two kinds - efficiency, cost.
Pay more for high eff to reduce cost of rest of system, the area.
Ultimately all costs.
Eff ultimately becomes cost.
Which is more important?
A: Which to target?
Eff becomes cost. Per kW/h.
Eff is one way to get there. For total system costs, as opposed to just the silicon.
A: 35 cells - cost high, eff high.
system installed is the right cost to focus on
Lower area you need.
Which cost do you mean, is the way I am answering back.
Way too short an answer.
Luke: Two things:
Get off the grid.
Packet switch energy.
If we can't use public grids, can't put
Bob: Grasshopper. Off grid is way to get customers now. Packets is later.
Think deeply about this.
Luke: Short term? Local gen?
Bob: Yes. Avoid getting slowed down by utilities.
Get behind the meter.
Luke: Generation right by consumption
David R: Ethanol microturbines.
Bob: Exploit energy density of fuels. Nuclear turbine would be next.
Jose: Father of internet and of Enernet. Big applause.
Bob Metcalfe, General Partner
Jose: Ambassadors can leave, others can stay.
Jose: Break coming at 4:15.
Have to review this morning.
Eric: Making some changes. Jim Hurd to be advisor, not leader.
Make him a resource to the group.
Important to have the dynamics be for you to set your own agenda.
Ross will be facilitator/moderator.
Any questions about that?
Salim talking to Jim today.
Jose will be managing.
Gary: Will he attend?
Eric: Not attend unless asked.
Jose: He will be here Thursday.
Juan: Happy with this. Nothing against Jim.
Emem: We'll accept you on one condition- throw a party.
Jose What I have for you is chocolate.
Toronto. Really fantastic chocolates.
Several boxes of those.
Jose: The project is yours.
Luke: How not to do it.
Jose: 3 min on that.
Luke: You are really respectful of each other.
Smaller group. Dynamics were different.
Similar type A personalities. No designated leadership.
Lot of social negotiation.
Lot of really good ideas.
No advice, just go for it.
Make the most fron the opportunity.
On same team as Ross/Luke.
So impressed by you. Opening ceremony. Salim listed your accomplishments.
You guys are going to be great.
Early on groups - doing it right this year.
Alex: Last year war. This week peace.
Luke: Guinea pigs last year. Where do you start. We didn't have topics. Week 5-6. Finally tried brainstorming. Half junk. Go through.
In first thre days, outline problem areas.
You had that right up front.
We had to commit 3 weeks before end, not 3 weeks from start.
Most important - each other.
Friendships will continue on- resources you didn't have before. Get to know your team.
Energy really is the most important area.
This group the most important.
Ross- say monetarily most successful.
Emem: Ignite slides. Not to everybody, just us.
15 seconds - 1 1/2 to 2 on one slide.
Extremely difficult to do.
Really good - time for 15 seconds. Keep clicker in your pocket.
Ross: 15 slides. 35 words.
David Rose says: Never look at your slides.
Doesn't have as much value as giving really good presentation.
Give a David Rose presentation - every one from then on.
Really powerful points.
Alex: Or guy from Wired.
You learn more. Core principles are the same.
Or find them free.
Alex: There are some -
Luke: Wikipedia - all CC license.
Alex: Nice to have Getty - watermark.
Jose: Talk a few more things:
Go over things we are trying to achieve.
all the pictures
Still lectures Thursday.
You ask all the questions.
Get all the information you can to begin working.
After 2 weeks no more invited people. But visit Mark Jacobsen.
2 more classes.
Next week classes. Smart grid. Storage.
4000, maybe a little bit more, 5000 for building a prototype.
Gary - Emem
Decide how to use that budget.
In fact, Emem could be fantastic party.
Not best use of those resources.
As Luke said, Greg mentioned. Ross says, this is going well.
Last time - 9 weeks, people jumped.
We are doing fine. Define the problem space - what are we going to solve.
This year indication - 8 T + 11 dollars. Huge. We'll not go into this 8 T.
Companies start in September.
Later, build company.
1/3 of students moved to SV
Alex: We will not leave [laughter]
Jose: Another possiblity. Just stay here.
Met Rod, Shauna, Bently - you might move up or down here.
Some people really want to move forward.
Two people who want to
John - I admire him. He is a machine [Emem claps]
Luke: Taking exiting technologies - getting new machines.
Electric cars - put together.
John did that with software
Jose: Marcos - also student. Do 3 weeks every year.
Started meeting last year. Anything is possible.
When Pete Worden was talking, John sent e-mail.
Then at end of talk, Pete replied, \"We should talk\" Deputy Gary MArtin.
7 am meeting.
When I arrived at 7, 3 beautiful girls, including Adriana, San and
Once I arrived at 7 am, John is on video teleconf with another person.
Jose: We're going to have a party at house of Gary Martin.
Next team meeting - Monday afternoon.
Post in shared agenda.
Luke: Don't miss Dean Kamen.
Jose: Know about people coming. Know what to ask them.
Homework - read bios
Gary: and make summary and mail to us
Al: Juan gave insight in how to boach subject.
Jose: Stand and present.
Al: Bob is sharing same concept. How to store it.
Working on how to design systems.
First - fly to HI in 3 weeks,
Second - in Spain after end of Singularity.
H is best storage. Compress and put in small tanks.
Generate in hydrolysis of water.
Devised models myself, 21%.
Inventors got 60% efficiency.
Fuel cell efficiency is 45%.
1991 design shown in Australia.
Concentrated solar, tube.
One part to electricity. One part collected as heat.
Combination of heat and electricity produces H.
Plus extra for day use. Fuel cell uses H to give electricity at night.
Rays during day.
When hindered by planet, uses collected heat.
Special type of materials. Material heats up. Because it is hot, emits IR.
Modified system, concentrate on special Silicon Carbide.
Just collecting heat.
Metal stays hot.
Luke: Escaping heat
Luke:Heat storage and flux
Al: Don't off the top of my head.
Jose: 10 min break.
Emem: Helps if solar collector rotates.
Which you prefer?
4:43 Jose. Ross got us a ventilator.
UNESCO water e-mail.
Going to water team in a few minutes.
Survey - 4 parts.
4:59 John Smart:
Hidary might be good guy to talk to.
5-6 ideas. Would you be willing to support us with a research assistant.
Or other set of resources.
Emem: We qualify for the school award.
John Smart: Brainstorming on what to ask Hidary.
5:16 Jose: Dinner with Hidary.
Emem: Stone Age did not end for lack of stones.
Networks in Israel. Bay Area. Having for schools - might be a big win.
Jose: You don't own the battery.
Concept of ownership
July 12-16, 2010
Science and Ethics of Biotechnology
Huntington Botanical Gardens
San Marino, CA
Contact: Carolyn Saruwatari
Norway - building a H higway
EarthKAM (Earth Knowledge Acquired by Middle school students) is a NASA education program which enables students, teachers and the public to learn about Earth from the unique perspective of space. Sally Ride.
Business theory commentators have used the Kobayashi Maru as an example of the need to redefine the foundation upon which a business competes\u2014changing the rules rather than playing within a rigged game\u2014as an example of successful business strategy.
5:41 Hidary arrives
Juan: 1 billion people. Where should we focus?
Hidary: sustainable home energy
Juan: Which program to focus?
Hidary: Haven't fixed yet. Hear ideas now.
Talk about a lot of energy issues.
H: Small scale?
H: Dev or general. Scale to 1 billion people.
San: Small windmill. DIY windmill. Pinwheel. Many, many for developing countries. Not enough for factories, but enough for several entities. Good at night. Extend 3-4 hours.
H: How many on planet -
Emem: 2 bn no elect.
H: Clean water.
Emem: 2.5 bn.
H: Connection between water and energy
Emem: system for 10 hours in night. At affordable price.
H: What price is affordable?
Emem: $500 with credit. Better than firewood.
If don't provide up front, can pay back.
H: Unit that can produce power.
Emem: Lights, TV, computer.
Gary: At start - focus on dev world. Homes far from energy sources.
Buy for $25-90.
Without, cannot plug in washing machine.
Already exists. Other fancy thingsthat can be.
focus on enterprises, develop platform on ways to build themselves.
Get in with NGOs.
Most people don't have internet access.
Library of things to build.
Lots of Brazil / Paragu / 100s of m of people. Some power during day, goes in /out.
Iran has shut down functions due to shutdowns. Bridging.
Storing. How to continue. Homework, reading.
Not black and white - intermittent - lot of people.
Bangladesh - all industries agreed to not open for week so they could watch TV.
What area to focus
Mongolia - 100,000 solar gare.
Went to visit. Can run fridge.
Some with a lot, some with none. Lot in the middle, how to smooth.
John Smart: Two kinds.
specifically - bus recharges at stops. Millions of charge/discharge
CAES - long term storage.
H: Storage - pumped hydro. Different from hydropower.
Small system. Take water at low level, pump up into artificial res.
Then let flow down. Closed system hydro. 1000s of installs.
Depending on where you are can be very economic.
Molton salt. CSP or CPV - combines. 8-9 hours of sun extended another 8-9 hours.
5:52 Jose: Ready. Main conference room.
Pad for Jack Hidary is http://su-etherpad.com/event-Jul14-Jack-Hidary
People are happy to pay more if it is their only choice.
Running database of on-grid and off-grid solutions.
David H: What is the distinction between off-grid and on-grid?
Jim: Whether you have access to grid or not. It's not a question of the solutions or particular tech, but the problem space.
Marko: Give energy back?
Jim: Can sell back, at what price. People unhappy paying retail price, get paid wholesale when they put energy back. All part of the developed world question.
Vast amounts of the developing world - mid category.
In india, opportunity for businesses that can afford to be down off the grid.
Basically, home and community generation of energy - what could scale up rapidly - fairly open field. Still room to make a mark there. Trying to provide solutions for on-grid is tougher. We certainly don't want to rule anything out for ETIR. Something I hadn't really thought about. You can have really expensive energy in off grid - people will just use it for an hour or two and they will pay 50 - 75 cents. You'd be amazed at what people are paying for off-grid power. Working hand or foot pumps which have made a huge difference in Kenya.
How do we in a relaxed way, find our intensity and cut to the quick. Not about quantity of action. Getting to the heart of the action. Thoughts since Monday.
Alex: Very disoriented. Expected much powerful thing from the start. Have 3/4 weeks.
Jim: My job is to not overly tell you stuff. Projects this year are not the same as last year.
Alex: Most are used to having leader.
Jim: Also nature of team project.
Alex: Couple of discussions with Richard. 5 min. What can we do? Suggested we try for microgenerators. Split between first world - something more fance, on or in houses - a thing that we will sell from Sept/Oct/Nov (2010). Make some research for third world. Obscure technology. What is on the market. Maybe different - with supercredibility coming from NASA. This is what I think we have to do. What we are looking for. Whole universe we need to research. Any decision is better than no decision.
Jim: Job for first 3 weeks is not to make a decision.
Alex: Sent - slideshare / script. Sent 300 pages on solar energy.
David H: Rapidshare.
Alex: Sent today. Optimistic we will find a way. Don't have any doubt.
Jim: 1000 things. Literally 500.
Alex: When we find it, know it.
Jim: Most people do not understand home energy. Grid energy is much better understood.
Jim: Keep in mind. Electricity is only 1/2. Heat and light. Transportation driven by oil. Sure gradually transitioning to driving cars on electricity, but for now, fraction of fraction that way. Whole separate way to drive transportation. Fuel cells. In general, transportation needs tend to be very different econsystem from heat/light. Motorcycles and bicycles - even buses can be community.
Keep heat/light distinct from transportation.
Also impressed by skills and connections document:
Need zoology. Not every technology out there, but bin to put it in.
For example, solutions:
Solar / Wind / etc.
Rural in Africa / Energy for cars
Have good idea of bins.
Jim: Certainly going back and forth between generation and who is using it and at what price.
For our problem, 1 billion people.
Will end up on off-grid side. But keep things open.
What technologies could be developed world technology that could scale up and benefit developing countries. Solar - still a time before inexpensive sheet could give significant energy. 5-7 years away.
Home Hydrogen generation. Could scale up a long time from now. Watch out for whole H economy.
Good to do what you are saying in terms of looking at which users.
Sometimes a good diagram, draw visuals. The brain software. Here are users on one side, generation on the other. Which links go to which.
Energy tends to be complicated so visualizations could help.
David H: In order to do that, before this meeting is out, have a good structure to plan, hit ETIR. Who researches what by what date. 5 days before date start writing. 2 days before. 12 hours before.
- what i would like to see is a structured, deadlined plan to attack this great unknown of knowledge (ready for the first small milestone which is the ETIR version 0.1 in two weeks)
- figure out the categories in problem space and solution space
- who researches what to research by when
- meet and teach each other what we have researched
- five days before deadline, start writing report
- two days before deadline, big meeting to criticize report
- send it in 12 hours before deadline
... or something like that. Just some clear view of how to get to the milestones we need to get to.
Jim: Great Ross can be with us today. Jose is back with Ray at WFS.
Thanks Ross. Try for half hour ....
Ross: If Gary is back. Team building exercise.
David H: Doing something at the start of each meeting, in terms of regular thing.
Jim: I didn't want to do it that way - Dive into where we are going.
I'm back in DC from Sun to Wed. We have two sessions
Tony Seva Monday
Eric Wessoff Thurs morning. Famous - Clint Wilder on steroids with an edge on him. Big writer on Cleantech.
[Jose wrote: \"Mark Jacobson is a good friend from Stanford and an international expert on all types of renewable energy\" coming Monday]
Juan: Huge field. Easy to get lost in the mountains. Building on what David has just said. Concrete definition of problem/users.
Jim: Working on report. Brainstorming. Clarifying on vs off-grid. We are supposed to be lost a little. We're supposed to be researching. Balance between getting lost a little.
Energy is massive. Covers so much gound. Visualize clearly - different buckets. Will do diagramming. Use today to brainstorm about objectives over next 14 days. 3 hours today.
Wanted initial feedback/reactions. Then focus one at a time.
What do we want ETIR to try to cover.
Juan: Discussed with team. When you create. Bad idea to focus on technology. Must look ...
Emem: Eric sent an outline of what ETIR is supposed to be:
ETIR high-level outline
1. Executive Summary
(we suggest you write this after the rest of the report)
2. Scope of the report
A statement of the Grand Challenge and the scope of the Team Project
3. State of the Problem Space
\u2022 Short description of the entire Problem Space
\u2022 Detailed description of the aspects of the problem being addressed (different parts of the problem being examined)
\u2022 Current state of the art of technology and other solutions within the detailed problem being addressed
\u2022 Summary list of the exponential technology subject areas (a short list of what you considered, based on the SU tracks, for example)
\u2022 Definitions used to classify or label the opportunities (what 'near term' vs 'long term' means, etc)
4. Exponential Technology Opportunities Within the Detailed Problem Space
For each opportunity you choose to describe:
\u2022 assess the current state of the technology
\u2022 identify companies, researchers, etc working in this area, with links and references
\u2022 make an estimate of the potential benefit of this technology
\u2022 estimate if this is near term or longer term, or other labels to measure the opportunity
\u2022 identify if there is a convergence (or mutual benefit) from other technologies
\u2022 identify potential barriers to the development or adoption of this technology
\u2022 identify significant bottlenecks in technology, process, law, policy, regulation, and approaches and potential solutions to these bottlenecks (this detailed assessment would be applied to opportunities you chose to highlight)
Note that some opportunities can have more detail than others
Capture all relevant references and source notes (as you find them) to aid in the examination of alternatives later
The minimum for the ETIR Outline (version 0.1) due July 23, would include:
- (item 3) A description of the problem being addressed, including a list of short statements that describe aspects of the problem
- (item 4) A preliminary list of the Exponential Technology Opportunities that will be addressed in the ETIR (it can be expanded/revised)
Jim: How much time to spend on each section of ETIR?
Notice I sent small wind, even if not much of an opportunity.
Just a catalyst. I'll have opinions, but those can change.
David H: We need to narrow eventually. Look at 5-10 problem spaces. Not 100. Not 1.
Jim: Not limit to 5-10, but we can check.
Mercy: From Monday, first thing I realized - Home Generation. Thought before it was Energy generally. First thing I thought we should be doing is off-grid. Community by themselves. Most seen are expensive.
Jim: Challenge - with HOME as first word - several billion with NO access to power. Don't create a new fusion thing. Come up with something that can help off-grid. For ETIR, my preference is to weight off-grid.
Mercy: On grid already controlled by governments.
Emem:Situations in different countries:
\u00b7 Country Situation
New Zealand \u2013 Countries of \u2018hippies\u2019 very concerned about the environment. Less energy hungry than USA but generate some energy but is a net importer of oil and gas energy. Completely against nuclear energy bc of environmental concerns.
Slovania \u2013 Variety of plants \u2013 hydo bc of rivers, 1 nuclear, some hydo plants and some photovoltaic
Korea- Pro nuclear. Exporting nuclear plants in Arab emirates and turkey. Govt interested in green growth but not started yet. Every energy in Korea imported from other countries; oil, gas and uranium. Next decade will see growth in green energy.
Spain \u2013 Energy dependent have 3 nuclear stations, imports from other countries. Spain against nuclear stations. Green energy is pro. Has solar energy and quick start has a lot of thermal solar plants. Rated 3rd in the world. Also have a good installed base of wind. The No. 1 wind energy producing company in the world is in Spain. More dependent on Germany and China for technology.
Sudan: 87% of its energy needs with biomass, oil supplies 12% the remaining 1% are produced from hydro and thermal power, we now have oil we export to China, Japan Indonesia India crude oil and petroleum but due to the conflict in Sudan it has never had a real impact on people life especially in the rural area where 70% live there, renewable energy technologies such as solar, wind, etc would be a very good solution since there are local resources.
Kenya \u2013 Net importer of energy. Most of the energy comes from hydrothermal, solar and wind but not on a large scale. Most people do not have electricity but capital cities are on grid. Approximate number of people off the grid is in excess of 50%.
Nigeria: - Primary source of power is private petrol or diesel powered generators. Some hydro electric power, gas plants but there is problem of distribution. Nigeria is a net exporter of energy.
Emem: Wide application in Africa.
Jim: Backup power, should look at that. Not just energy that is team project. Understand ecosystems of energy - continent by continent. They tend to change a bit.
Alaeddine: Technical guys and business guys have different perspectives.
Look for customers - this is the way to approach it.
Report is not the main target. Just ideas.
Jim: Report can focus on WHERE is the need. Can focus on more than just technology.
Fabio: That's what A said.
A: If someone has technical suggestion,
Jim: \"Impact\" is important. Organize by technology. But each technology you don't understand the impact without context.
A: Need objective.
Jim: Organize by technology. Each needs clear usage/ impact.
Jim: Not to determinewhich project we do.
DH: Excited to narrow down. But we can take a couple weeks.
A: have been in the field 3 years - it is huge.
Jim: I know how huge. It is about clarity of perception. If we organize well.
Calmly understanding the major differences and not getting lost in the weeds.
A: Grid potential in the future?
Jim: We could do that in half a day. Taking today to go over. Called Exponential Technology Initial Report (ETIR), so my take is to list by technology.
Then breakdown, solar, breakdowns in between.
Naming technology is only first step in who used it and where.
Keep thing circulating -
Recycle Casava Been Waste.
Only Energy prposal.
Find where real usage / real projects that have been successful.
Will be at World Bank, meeting with Kate and some friends.
Fried did projects in Kenya and Ghana.
We have time and brain power.
Who is using jatropa, solar, at what price. We'll see where.
Boot camp for Santa Clara University.
25 Social Entrepreneurs. 2 weeks of classes.
On 27th, close to whn we finish. Might be good to visit.
As a group we can brainstorm and gradually zero in.
Use collective insight.
Hind: Most agree - define programs / market.
Look on grid/off grid.
Started studying country situation.
We extend to the whole developing countries.
Jim: Unless you know what is already being used, you won't make progress.
Things take time. What is being tried?
Find - in last 20 min - brainstorm for hour or two first.
We'll start it between now and the next session.
Other thing: howdo you envision - color coded?
Emem: We get stuff - 6 months stuffed into our brains in 2 weeks.
If we can split up. Do it in one week.
Jim: Need process to share knowledge.
Can we use etherpad?
Can we see who is adding which piece in. Critique - give feedback.
Emem: Can use Word, Etherpad.
Jim: Hold on. Let's calmly think out mechanism for sharing our collective knowledge where a few people will have to edit.
Specific idea, #1.
Google spreadsheet - brainstorm on whiteboard.
5 on technology
5 on problem space
then solar thermal
then enter every single line from board onto spreadsheet with name beside it
After each meeting report on what found.
Jim: Good starting point. But let's not make up mind right away.
How would that morph into document?
DH: We spend time - just 2 meeting per week.
Jim: This week 2, then 3, then 4, then every day.
DH: Days we are not meeting we could meet for an hour, even on weekends.
Spend 4-5 meetings exploring problem spaces, refining that.
List of 50 areas then meet to specifically form document.
Jim: Massive amounts of stuff. We don't need to decide today, but intelligent about planning that in next 1-3 sessions.
Understand that you can get lost in research in one arcane area. Help each other to constructively - avoid getting lost in the weeds.
Look at each other's research while going along on-line.
DH: Say 10 things to research each. 5 meetings to research and present.
Won't get hung up on one. Will get through everything.
Jim: Will be massive - build in flexibility to process. Adjust collective and individual knowledge as we go along.
Emem: can we do it as prototype.
Jim: Original thing, we have not had feedback from around room.
Think of meat we aim to accomplish.
Lot of problems. Meetings should be productive. This one is not.
Jim: Until they take me out, flexible, intelligently, not fast decisions. I have certain things important to do. If you don't like way I'm running it. Carefully thought out.
Marko: Basically I suggest, mail how report looks like. Just sent from Eric.
Ross: Every person you've interrupted so far ...
Jim: You just did it to me.
Ross: Address at end.
Jim: It never gets addressed.
Ross: How can you let someone talk if ...
Jim: Important to address or not. Making notes. Coming to understanding on things. If you decide you don't want me to run ...
Ross: If we had a moderator ...
Jim: I'm the moderator.
Ross: If someone is trying to speak, they have to get their thoughts out.
How many people are shaking their heads. Might be good idea to let people to get thoughts out.
Jim: My style is to respond.
Marko: You didn't know what I said.
Jim: Are we talking about anything important in here. That is what should count.
Marko: We've lost 10 min.
Marko: We have idea of what report should look like. Then make graph. Then have orderly way. Everybody see what everybody is doing for next 2 months. Design it today. Otherwise ...
Jim: What do you think we are doing today. That's what we are here for.
Emem: Can you do a short presentation on how to proceed?
Jim: Done it already.
Emem: When you present again. I don't understand ..
Jim: I don't know what you are talking about.
What I have said today . I have e-mailed some things. How do we create a good ETIR. In my opinion, we need a way to be able to share collaboratively, otherwise it will be a mess that will take a lot of editing.
We need to understand the ecosystems.
one is on grid / off grid.
Point today is to start to research.
Start on ETIR
How to share this information.
Emem: Any other ecosystem to look at?
Jim: No rush here. We don't need to rush. I am the moderator. Not my decision or your decision. The point here is to talk.
Emem: Do you have alist?
Jim: Many overlapping ecosystems. We'll try to understand.
Alex: First 2 hours, everybody has to talk.
DH: so excited to jump into it.
Jim: Haven't had a chance to do yet - chance to talk about skills, ideas. That is the next thing: assignment from Monday.
Alex: Matter of communication here. Try not to give negative feedback. Say \"not productive\" Start with relaxation, say what you wanted to say in constructive way.
Jim: Like jazz music, improvising together.
John Graves: Haven't had a chance to review all the materials you sent yet. My focus has been on the tools, and moving things that came thru on email into our wiki page. We have wiki pages and the etherpads.
Jim: I read the last etherpads. There are certain things on the last pad I didn't necessarily want named. You can say to JG \"This is an off-the-record comment.\" This info might come back later. You need to understand the + and - of every quote you have on the internet.
John: There are other tools we might use. Mind mapping tools. \"The Brain\" software is like that and is free.
Jim: Ether try to hard or try to little Wanted to hear what you had to say. At some point I have to make decisions about how to run a meeting that gets somethings done. Let's share information and respect the group. Shouldn't act until the majority of the group says to act on it.
Fabio: Most said already. Feeling for how team feels. Tech guy. No clue what to do. Not a business guy. Light at end of the tunnel would be more comfortable. Have a few concerns: seems first steps are research. - are we going to address what to research.
Jim: Will talk about that today
F: Avoid researching same things.
Jim: We have 7 weeks. 30 sessions. We have to have ETIR in 15 sessions. We can have a little bit of waste and refine as we go forward.
Energy is like an elephant.
Beyond one person's comprehension.
Collaborate, gentle process. If not gentle here, will have minus, not plus effects.
The start is to create environment where we are sharing feedback.
Heard initial feedback.
Thing is, even this is ... you have to understand too, this is a process of discovery. NOT this report has to cover XYZ within energy.Two steps. ETIR then team project.
How can we do a good ETIR. Generalist function.
I think we've been at it now, hour and a quarter.
Let's talk about skills.
Alex: First, two suggestions. Understand what happened. Expectations.
First minutes of meeting when we will talk about this, second part this. If not sure how meeting will be, become anxious. Clarify what we will discuss today, will see improvements very quick.
Matter of attention here. Everybody have laptops open. Cannot have attention to what you are saying and have listen.
Jim: Anything on computer, be notes about this.
Mercy: All looking at Etherpad.
Alex: From 50 countries here. Other countries, conflicted. Emem wants to beat us all. We have to find - some smiles.
Fabio: no laughing.
Alex: Not a war here.
Jim: Goaround room,talk about skills. From past. Not directly related to this.
Alex: Allocate time- 2 min. 10s of books about meeting. We are 10 people - then 10 hours of speaking. Efficient - invest 10 hours, gain 1 hour.
Jim: 2-3 min max.
Emem: Document already. Put on projector? Read it out?
Alex: Maybe say more.
Mercy: Already spent time. Already done.
Hind: Can you open:
Energy Team: Skills and Connections Repository
Please write your name followed by a bulleted list. First is a list of Skills, then scroll down to see the list of Connections.
SKILLS: Please write particular skills you have
*Physics background (particularly nanoscale experimental, computational (especially MATLAB and COMSOL), and some hands-on electronics knowledge)-- B.Sc. in 2008 and now pursuing Ph.D.
*2D and 3D CAD drawing + artistic sense
*I consider myself a good powerpoint slide maker. It bugs me when I see bad powerpoint slides that are cluttered, unhelpful, not aesthetically pleasing, and it is my mission to rid the world of awful slides!
Studied Physics, in EE dept. Experience with MATLAB, coding computational things. COMSOL software. 2 and 3D CAD drawing. Makes good PowerPoints - had classes. Bugs me when PowerPoint has too many words or comicsans font. That is the worst.
Jim: 2-3 min per person. When you were a kid.
Played clarinet,guitar (classical), bit of piano. Sang in choirs.
Undergrad big men's chorus.
Jim: as a kid
Liked making things. Balsa wood planes. Machines and things.
*Statistics (SAS, Excel)
*Presentation - I\u2019ve had some coaching in question answering and voice (singing). I also know how to create those flowing Prezi presentations and make YouTube videos.
*Systems - managing things like Etherpad
Jim: Edison - Menlo Park
Marko: We should play tennis.
John: You bet.
*Electrical Engineering (BSc)
*Oil & Gas Management (MSc)
*Certified Project Management Professional - pmp
*10 years experience in upstream Oil & Gas company
*Presentation Skills - Extensive training in communications
*Stakeholder Engagement - skilled in defining stakeholders needs and facilitating interfaces between stakeholders.
*Micro-finance - Currently running a cooperative women based micro-finance company in Nigeria
Emem: 1st of 8 kids. Spent lots of time taking care of kids.
Have 2 kids.
Jim: what else when you were very young. Either doctor or engineer.
*Physics and Mathematics background ( B.Sc and M.Sc in experimental solid sate physics, PGD in mathematics)
*Familiar with some mathematics and physics software like , XRUMP, ANSYS, XGENPLOT, LaTex
*Micro Electromechanical Systems (M.Sc)
Hind: Backgound in Physics and Math. Solid state physics. Familiar with software. MEMS master.
Jim: What is it you do?
Hind: General Masters level courses. Micromachines.
*Mathematics and Computer Science background (currently using logics to verify software systems)
*Accounting/Finance (Certified Public Accountant training)
*Professional document preparation and presentation using LATEX
*Programming (Haskel, abit of Python)
*NGO management, workshop and conference organization
Mercy: Studies mathematics for bachelors and masters. PhD in CS.
Using logic to verify software systems. Studied to be CPA. Acct and finance background. LATEX - presentation tool. Can program in Haskel and Python.
Jim: As a kid?
Mercy: Breaking up stuff. 1st of 5 kids. Dad very handy. He needed extra hands. Once in school, fridge broke. Came from school and I fixed it.
Jim: What part did you help with?
Mercy: I just pulled off the back. Mostly, not fixed, broke things.
*Faculty of Public Relation and Communication - David Ogilvy
*Faculty of Law
*I know how to make VIDEOS http://video214.com/play/C42jXqjbADu5wgyI1xE4zg/s/dark
*leadership and training backround
*real estate backround (7years)
Involved only in teams. Mother had idea to send to musicalband. From 5 years on involved in extra-school activities in teams. Used to teamwork. Mother a teacher. Lots of reading. I sing. 4 years, leader of band - tournaments, concerts. Used to lots of people around me.
Background in Law. Bachelor degree. Second in administrative studies, PR and communication. 7 years in real estate. Investor. Had a compnay. 4 years before in NGO - vp in largest youth organization in Romania.
I think if you want to ask me anything else?
Jim: Liked as a kid?
Readking. Singing. Listening to music.
*Engineer in Mechanical Engineering (Speciality: Energetics).
*Graduate Student and Research Assistant working on Solar Energy.
*I designed several systems for converting sunlight into electricity and hydrogen.
*I designed thermal systems: green buildings, solar collectors, solar water heaters...etc.
*Authored several scientific papers in the field of solar energy.
*I do computer programming, CFD modeling, CAD modeling, Web Design.
*Speak English, French, Arabic.
A: French only degree in Energetics. Full scholarship to Masdar. Extensive work in solar. Through studies, convert produce H. Solar water heaters. Etc. Gathered 80 programs - virtual calculation center.
Jim: As kid, under 10?
A: Used to read a lot. At age 12, maid stole from the library the biography of Edison. Changed my life. Used to collect sayings.
Jim: Great. Thanks.
*Background in Industrial Engineering (MS) and Business Administration (MBA)
*Wide hands-on experience in technological entrepreneurship (launched and managed a high-tech start-up incubator)
*Wide managerial experience in the triangle: Business-Government-Social Organizations
*Business plan design
*Teaching (I am a business school professor)
Masters in Industrial Eng.
MBA fom MIT
Launched 12 yrs ago high tech incubator
Come from less developed region - andulusia
Need more innovation.
Working there with hundreds of start ups. Trying to tranform into high growth.
Triangle of Social / Business / Government.
In Social sector also launched 3 years ago, identify young leaders. Get them to study around the world.
Responsible for innovation in the government.
Jim: End July. Jerome Glenn. Jose works with Jerry. 5 years ago - trying to get legalized combination of Govt agency/NGO/corporation. Seeing these hybridizations.
Juan: Since I am in the govt, tryihng to bring the business way of thinking to the government. When we launch new initiatives, we try to make private. Foundation that business people manage.
CONNECTIONS: Please list connections with people or companies that might help
*Good friends with CEO and CTO of emPower playgrounds (they were friends from undergrad university). This company uses mostly local resources to make a merry-go-round for rural schools in Africa (especially Ghana), which powers batteries that provide light inside the classroom. They may have expertise with social engineering and also in how to use local materials and create economically sustainable local businesses.
*I\u2019m at Cornell, which is totally into energy so I have access to lots of professors who are interested in this, many of whom are listed here: http://www.geo.cornell.edu/eas/energy/alphabetical_list_college_o.html
*Friends with Geoff Whitcher, in charge of \u201cSpark\u201d which is an entrepreneurial incubator / VC in New Zealand. Through him we have access to similar groups, mostly in New Zealand and Australia but also in the US.
*My brother in law manages and works with largest wind farms in New Zealand.
*My brother went to GSP09. I thought we might be able to tap other GSP09 students for help and resources, if there were GSP09 students that are still interested in energy (which I\u2019m sure there are!)
*Know owner of Thermosash (http://www.thermosash.co.nz/) in Auckland, New Zealand: David Hayes. Thermosash makes commercial building facades out of glass and has particular expertise in solar flux.
*Classmate of Mike Nelson (http://www.asis.org/Chapters/asispvc/michaelnelsonbio.html) at Caltech, former advisor to Al Gore. Policy wonk.
*Sister is City Attorney for Providence, RI with many contacts in public sector, especially around brownfield development (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brownfield_land)
*Brother is Director of Old Town School of Folk Music (http://oldtownschool.org/) in Chicago, IL with many connections to performing artists who might be willing to contribute their names or music towards publicity.
*Access to NGO in Nigeria
*Access to government and engineering professional groups in Nigeria and diaspora organisations.
*Possible interfaces with other African countries
*I have an experience working in local community and rural area in Sudan, South Africa.
*I work at AIMS ( the African Institute for Mathematical Sciences ) is a centre for education and research in South Africa. AIMS is very well connected to most African universities as well to many research centres in Africa.
*Access to some NGO and local organisations in Sudan.
*Former colleagues and friends working in universities, Ministry of Energy and energy companies in Kenya
*Access to NGO\u2019s and local organizations in Kenya with partnerships with the UN Nairobi office
*Access to the AIMS alumni spread around Africa
*possible Romanian government connections in energy field
*I am based in Masdar, the host for the International Renewable Energy Agency, and the first institution dedicated completely to renewable energy in the world, where everybody is doing research on renewable energy topics.
*I know some experts and activists in the field of Solar Energy.
*I work for the Innovation Ministry of the Spanish Government, where I can access different departments
*Contacts with CEO of Spanish energy companies like Abengoa, Gamesa, Ayesa, Inerco and Iberdrola
*Good friends with CEO of Spanish energy startups like GreenPower
*Good friends with CEO of MIT Entrepreneurship Center, MIT $100K and MIT Clean Energy Prize
Degree in electronic.
Design small circuits.
PCB - plates where components goes on
Brazilian company. Language learning for 10 years creating a new device.
Degree on software.
Java / Oracle / SQL
Jim: As a kid?
Up until 10, pretty much normal. Go into neighborhoods, anything broke?
Parents complained about whole bunch of TVs, radios, looked inside. How to fix it.
Also doing this. Didn't understand what I was doing.
Worked on HIV at MIT
2007 first company - genetic testing
Started preparing business plan
Started from scientific point of view - economy and business.
How to talk to VCs.
8 employees. Growing more each year.
Want to do something else also
In life, biofuels a couple of months.
Why here - I think, first in Water, still deciding - would like to have big scope of energy. See trends. your question - as a kid - destroying radios. Football, regular kid.
Jim: Skills that I like to use. Then a break.
Normal kid. liked sports. Making music. Getting into trouble.
Not doing what I was told to do.Certain people don't like being told. They find their own way.
Around 15, started getting into arts. School in DC. Lived in India.
Lived with Navaho medicine man. Got excited about studying.
Fun to enjoy learning.
Mohandas Ghandi -
Was a hindu monk in SF for 1-1/2 years.
Went to George Washington U.
In 30's interested in politics. Mid-level Clinton administration.
Hated it before
Brother, since he was 23, has worked in Africa.
Save the Children
Sister to Palestine in 71
Help with rights issues.
Sort of guy, when R.B.Fuller said he was \"comprehensivist\"
More and more as singularity starts to approach - people who can be brilliant generalists, results oriented, can do things specialists can't do.
I'm an \"inclusiveist\" Take my time. Think out loud. Happy to be proven wrong.
Synergyies. 1+1 =
Jim: Talking about net effect.
Look at new issue of Esquire The Impossible. Bi on the light side - how everything we thought impossible is not impossilbe.
My suggestion is that we can each do our own thing for a little while. Share what you are doing. Each person take a week to define the landscape as they see it. Compare landscapes. Compare different ecosystems of energy. We may have a lot, or just a little difference.
Be philosophical, a bit artistic. Have a little fun. Not get too defined. We'll have plenty of time to get defined in the second week.
Back Thursday morning. Jose will pick up the ball.
The more wecan improvise and share perspectives, the more we will come out with a document that weill surprise us.
We are trying to define the elephant now. Magical. Requires both intuitive and linear thinking.
Thoughts from my perspective. Come back and discuss.
Alex: What will happen after break?
Jim: Approach I just said. What do people think. How do people here see as a good way to proceed so that we gradually get where we need to be.
First generalists. ETIR, not a technical discussion but where being used, price, what are opportunties.
Almost a month - 3-1/2 weeks before final ETIR has to be done.
DH: Break. 15.
Jim: 12 min. [5 on pad]
x Hind Ahmed
x Emem Andrew
x Alexandru Celac
x Gary Gautier
x John Graves
x David Hutchison
o San Ko
o Javier Mares Romero
x Juan Martinez-Barea
x Alaeddine Mokri
x Mercy Njima
o David Roberts
x Fabio Teixeira
4:39 Jim: Take last hour to discuss how we want to go about using our time the next 1,2,3,4 weeks. I'm making a suggestion, but it is a group process. Make group decision about how to proceed. Go slow, give it one or two minutes. How Monday went, how things went this week. Also sharing about process - how to move forward. Fair amount - update Gary ...
Mercy: our skills.
Jim: Let's wait a minute and a half. You can talk.
Energy is massive, complicated area.
On and off grid.
Also, I was saying transport vs heat/light in home.
In US, primarily oil. Electricity for coal.
Only import oil for transportation.
Whole area of natural gas - price low right now.
Effecting everything else. In China 2-1/2 weeks ago.
Company in So Cal planning to
Company in China working in Alabama to create natural gas cars.
Quite a challenge to understand some of it.
We've waited enough. Gary, why don't you talk about skills. Rather than resume.
Gary: Consider myself very creative. Always been thinking since I was very very young, come up with great solution that would be implemented worldwide. Keen on getting in touch with people. Love having relations. Get in touch with new people, have easy friendships.
Jim: What did you like as a kid?
Mostly playing sports.
Hind: Playing soccer?
Gary: Twisted ankles 40 times each.
Jim: That's good. Rough idea.
Worked with a man - guy who developed motivated skills - good at but hate to use. What color is your parachute. Benjamin Disraeli - most people die never having heard the music inside them. Your life becomes more inspiring if you do what you love and miserable if you do things you hate.
Gary: Saying in spanish,
the goal of life is to
Your work has to become your hobby.
Only way to go further.
You must find the things you are passionate about and go for it to get the best out of your time.
Jim: Guy, age 12. Went on bicycle asking whatdo you do.
1 in 20 said, I do this, not enough time in day.
In 1945, he moved to US. Wrote for FDR. In charge of putting US soldiers back to work in jobs that would last more than a few months.
Died, age 95, motivated skills.
Did some software with him.
Guy who could come in. Dick Knowdell. Orignially doing career development at LivermoreLabs. Understand skills you are very good at doing, but hate. Others you are very good at and enjoy.
You might enjoy this card sort Dick created 40 years ago.
People raise their hands.
Need to be creating fairly comprehensive. Name technology. A few sentences on where it might go to. Main thing, where used, at what price, are there big opportunities for growth.
Energy people tend to be risk averse.
Energy can be tricky.
Home use of energy.
Slowness of new adoption.
Anyone who has been an entrepreneur - wonderful solution, but takes years to get up and running. Kicks in and hits exponential.
DH: Going to say, rather than each do overview. Specialize. Overview as a brainstorm. In column A - all the brainstorm items. In column B - our names, perhaps 10 topics each.
There are 11 of us. Half problem spaces - how used, which people. Solution spaces could be things out there.
Divide ourselves. list down. Assign to a person.
Gary: 2 weeks for research.
Jim: Rough draft in about 3 weeks.
Emem: First draft due in 2 weeks.
Gary: How developed?
10 slides? 1000 slides?
We can keep doing the research, but don't have to have output. Write it down.
Jim: Not to get lost in details. Trying to evaluate technologies - more important, where successful. Where using technologies.
Many different places, home generation. Lot of work to find failures and successes.
Can't just say, no body ever tired so it will be useful.
Find where it is working and do something alongside it.
DH: Need only a few things for ETIR 0.1
Eric: Explain what I meant by that. High level outline
What I was looking for in the 2 weeks.
Analogy for you.
Other groups picking a solution right away.
How to win world cup. Kick ball in goal and win.
Need, from ETIR, what goal is.
Need to find problem space. Knowing what the goal is.
Jim: Our challenge is home and community generation.
Eric: As a group you get to pick your target.
Jim: You don't mind if we narrow scope down.
Eric: Value in a comprehensive one.
Value in report that covers this broader space.
Part of value in identifying opportunities is to describe problem space. Narrow that. Then address that.
Whole other report on transportation energy.
Manage just the problem you are concerned with.
Jim: Sorry to interrupt. I'm away 2 days next week.
Clarifying off and on grid. Much more need for off-grid things to happen.
Pricing can be so much higher. Use smaller amounts.
Eric: Potential for defining scope.
If you decide as a group that off grid is where to focus.
Make available through exponential technologies.
Eric: Within the group you can choose to scope the problem.
In my football analogy. Technologies are your teammates.
Either going for solution or other opportunites where other players may have a better shot at the goal.
Define the problem with 4 or 10 statements. Different aspects of the problem:
Subject areas. Give you opportunites to brainstorm. You know technologies are out there, but may be changing. Does biotech help? new sensors? wireless or networks? Anything in lectures, something may have changed from a year or two ago?
If you find these areas - take lighting. Maybe bioluminescent lantern - one opportunity - either a few lines, or more detail.
[Juan has question 5:03]
Tha is the due diligence.
Jim: One thing explaining to people. Start with list of technologies, ask where adopted, price. That is the impact side.
Eric: What companies have it. Current price points. Idea, if you - one term in hockey - skate to where the puck will be.
Maybe some smart phone sensor, in a few years will be practical.
Solar arrays - we can project will be useful, practical - thin film.
Look out a few years. That is the 5-10 year opportunities. Start now on some project that will then trigger and be ready.
Juan: Given that we have to choose problem, when is it good to have clear definition of problem?
Eric: Good to think of that in this 2 week period.
I think you can refine/change this later. It is really at the point you have a plan, at end of ETIR you will have settled on statement.
Good to have
\"We have chosen to look at off the grid ....\"
or whatever you have chosen along with attributes.
Mention list of technologies - 15/20 that may be applicable.
Snap shot of where you are going.
DH: Just now describing problem being addressed.
Short description of broad problem space.
Eric: Follow thinking - access to energy is a grand challenge,
then residential energy
then off gird or smart gird....
What is important? Off grid energy be zero emission? If you give everybody a diesel generator, would that help?
Need to be able to say:
1 which problem we addressed
2 what it would do to help people
Gary: We should look at benchmarking.
All the things we want to work on.
Try to identify as much as we can -
which industries in which countries.
Risks they are facing. Then matrix.
All problems related with water....
What we can see is this map.
Julio: Designed this thing right now.
Diagram of technologies and needs.
Gary: brainstorm, then distribute. Can just be an Excel spreadsheet.
Jim: Energy is massive. All our best efforts will be just skimming the surface.
Not confident we are going to have a comprehensive understanding.
Trying to spot technology and opportunities, you'll be skimming the surface.
If you really tried to understand.
The devil is in the details.
Every time I''veseen it before. Trouble on agreeing on details.
So many possible ways of looking at it.
Frame of reference: don't expect to be comprehensive.
Do bestwe can. Develop as much as we can.
Don't assume it isgoing to be easy as we get into thtese details.
Marko: We can jump - do market research.
Eric: Unique to SU - where exponential technologies can make a change.
Assumptions of this works/ this doesnt.
what will change parameters
Ross: Good ideas that finally explode were tried for 20 years, but once something fits, it takes off.
Jim: Somehing already being adopted in small version. Amazing thingsbeing developed. People don't like implementing them.
People from World Bank say, \"Is this real?\"
Be a little careful on ....
Eric: Blue Sky ideas. My magic pump will solve everything.
Jim: Bring blue sky idea in behind something.
If something can screw up in Energy, it will.
Understand from a viral point of view. Where have things come togeher
Sabir creation of hotmail. Never spent a penny on advertising.
Look where viral adoption, walking to next village saying \"You've got to try this.\"
Eric: If you really do want to address residential.
This amount of power.
Here is this technology - almost ready, but needs this change.
If really wide/broad, difficult to cover all waterfront.
Alex: Can we outsource this
Emem: Pay for Facebook ad.
5:25 Ardvark question debate.
5:35 Can Skype in. Next meeting Monday. Saturday - energy track has three presentations.
Jim: Away 4 days. Sending e-mail.