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Part of the reason, why got 8.5 cents, got 4% interest rate



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Part of the reason, why got 8.5 cents, got 4% interest rate.

If they got 8%, would have been 13 cents.

So, it all depends on how you finance this thing.

Now we can get started on what I really want to talk about.
Mercy: After this session?
I will show you spreadsheets. How changing interest rates will change costs.
10 minutes each on 7 opportunities.
#1 Largest. Maybe/maybe not. Desert Power. Large scale solar power plants in the desert.

I'm going to talk ...
Al: CSP or PV based.
Not talking about technologies - will talk power tower in this case.

When I say opportunities, I mean market opportunities - not about technologies.

Market opportunity - which technology is going to win -based on what we know today,

I think PowerTower.

Don't take what I say as endorsing a technology.

About market opportunities - anybody can win.
Al: Cah you put technology in parallel.
I can, but don't take it as an endorsement of a technology.
Mexico is about to have an unbelievably huge energy crisis.

Sad, it is not in media.

2009. Mexico produced 2.6 m barrels per day. Down 30% from 2004.

Pemex provides almost half of govt budget inMexico.

Energy is subsidized.

Oil will last 9 more years.

First crisis will be social - how pay for government.

87% of energy in Mex = power, gas, comes from oil and gas.

So, as production goes down, get blackouts, brownouts, power cuts.

Electricity price up, economy goes down.

Even less revenues, downward spiral.

Within 5-9 eyars.
But, what does Mexico have a lot of?

Emem: The sun.

Tequilla.

They have a lot of sun.

Lot of deserts.

Opportunity today.

I went to Sonora.

With one company I am working with.

Building a 50MW solar power plant.

Just like this, energy crisis about to happen in mideast, North Africa, China.

Crisis of major proportions.

In Mexico, with such beautiful sunshine, if they start building infrastructure today, huge opportunity.
One student left to go start compnay.
Al: Value in Mexico.

2200, 2400 depending on where.
These are just 2 of the major deserts.

Sonora

Chiuaua.
Gary: DNI around Mexico?

Dependson location. 2000, 2400. Really big.
I was sweating. The sun was unbelieveable.
Large scale solar is quickest way to move the needle.

Can't get faster than this.

Single solar CSP will generate more power than all PV installed across America last year.

One single.
When I lef the city. I live in SF. When Ilef tthis mornign. 50 degrees. 11 C. What now? 80-90.

Drive, get 40 more degrees.
One plant in desert. More than all PV installed.
You know, lots of prime desert areas.

To answer Al's question.

I think CSP is the way to go.

Many reasons

energy storage that is cheap. PV doesn't

Generate all hours.

Other applications - where PV cannot go. Later, when I talk about water.
90% of worl lives within 3000 km of desert.

That means the following.

90% within - if you use high voltaget transmission lines.

Lose 3% per 1000 km

Can pipe power undre Medit and lose only 10%.

Sun here is 4 to 10x higher.

Makes total sense. Generate 4 to 10x more energy.
That little square could power the whole world. Algeria.
I'm just giving you the indicaiton.

The whole world that lives within 90%

who lives -all of Europe.

All of NA

All of China

Japan.

Major industrial centers.

Most in South America.
Have you all seen this.

Santiago?
These are PS10 and PS20.

This picture is this. [on book]

Solar power tower.

You have 100s or 1000s of heliostats.

With mirrors.

Focus light.

10 x 12 meters.

There is water going up, turns to steam. drives turbine, which generates electricity.

Different type of tech.
Video 20MW. Very windy.

Spanish.
Ola: Can be reflective? Not glass.

Reflectec.
Steam. Hold here. 1 hour of storage.
Alex: Like 2001 Space odyseey.
Why so high?

Mirrors up to 1 km away.

Al: Disadvantage is having at top

We just put mirrors at top, put machines on bottom.
Marko: Lose efficiency?
Juan: Very far away, you see sun rays, it seems to be a bridge.

You believe it is a bridge, it is the sun.
Tony: It is beautiful. People stop and like pray. It is religious.

Costs $4-6/Watt.

Projects announced, 10 GW.

Just one co here has 2.6GW.

Remember 10 TW gap.

If just 10% - that is a 4-6 T dollar opportunity.
Going to be $2-3 per watt.
Building it.

Capital investment.

Somebody is going to build a terrawatt of desert power.

Somebody is going to make a tillion dollars.
Al: Can you go back to Spain photo. Just near the tower, small panels near tower.
These. When you go here. They have all kinds of technologies.

R&D lab. Just like Masdar.

PV,

Parabolic troughs.

All being tested.
If 10% of 10 TW that is $3 T.

We are talking about $9T.

My opinoin, this is going to be the biggest.

Where are the opportunities.

Desertec?

Basically a group of companies in Europe.

Develop all over North Africa.

Not little companies.

Not mickey mouse.

Certainly not ABB or Seimans.

They are raising half a trillion.

Plants inNorth Africa.
this is the concept

Plants all over N Africa. some to Europe. Some for Africa, mid East.

Lot of desalinating water. Will talk later.
Heliostat field.

Who here is going to build a solar power plant.

Here is the opportunity.

Former student looks, said,

heliostat field is 50% of cost.

Why so expensive?

But this is mirrors and steel. Why?

Tracking is problem.

Turns out that the drive of these things.

10 x 12 meters. 3 x size of room.

They weigh a ton.

you need an engine that can move a truck.

Needs to move with sub 1% precision.

Truck transmission built by rolex.

These are about 1 km away.

Need to point sun to top of tower.

So he and friend realized, 50% of 50% - the tracker.

We can build a bette drive.

They built one without gears. An engine without gears.

They say,saves about 35%.

Helps companies make 35% more electricity - savings, using their drive.

Opportunity i snot just in building, but in taking part and making it pbetter.

More efficient, cheaper or both.
Way they build drives is not high tech - use air.

Don't need to be rocket scientist.

So Masdar is using something like this.

Beam down.

Has been built.
According to NREL 3.5 cents by 2020.
#2 Industrial scale solar.

Sunchips

2008 Million $

Made by FritoLay - use this.

Parabolic trough.

Modesto is very hot.

Way desert.

Sun chips used to be made with gas, now made with sun.

Heat up water.

Not to generate electricity.

Generates steam.

Transfer fluid - heats up oil which fries the sunchips.

That is another advantage of solar thermal as opposed to PV.

Most of energy we use goes to heat or cool something.
Best way to heat something is with the sun.
In the US, industry uses 1/3 of all energy.

Within that, 10 industries use 75% of total.

Those use more energy than all of Japan put together.

In fact, take top 3-4, chem / petrol

Japan is big user.

Industry uses energy for - mostly, to heat something up.

In Europe, 2/3 used to heat. Process heat.

Nothing better than the sun.
Heating and cooling is 1/2 of all energy demand.

So

but wait, there is more.

Most less than 250 C.

Market size, just in Europe of \"low temp\" is 300TW h per year

At Europe's elect prices, $2 T over 40 year life of plant.
So world total available market is about $6 T.
Marko: Use sun to heat water. Could do it where?
Tony: Here is what we do today.

Burn oil/ coal.

Wastes 70% of energy. 30% conversion.

Then pipe through lines.

30% of orignial.

Use to heat seomthing up - lose 15-85% of energy.

Wasting 70-90% to just heat something up.

Why notjust heat it directly.
Like Frito Lay is doing.
: Tranmission?
Has to be right there.

If out in desert, not a problem.

Many industries will move to low energy price areas.
Alex: Stats?
All in teh book.
Marko: Better to use in industry.
Yes.

One's I showed

Food

Beverage

Textile. Another former student - doing this in Turkey. for washing/ bleaching.

Instead of electricity.
Another thing - Solar chilling.

Solar A/C/

Turns out that a chiller which gets cold air or water out, gets hot water in.
1 MW Absorption chiller.

Pump hot water, get A/C out.

Data centers - cooling is about 2/3 of energy.

Big DC is a fridge.

Power has become the main issue.

Yahoo in 2008- spent $500,000 in power. Second largest expenditure.

Think of what google is spending.
Let's look at energy demand.

1.5% of energy demand in 2006 went to data centers.

Will spend $250 b per year just to power data centers.
NZ whole GDP is $128 b.

Nigeria GDP is close to $200 bn.

Energy demand for data centers - next 40 years, will be $3.7 T.
Policy - permiting - is biggest hurdle.

Number 2 is financing.
Marko: due to environmentalists?
More concerted effort by governments to support clean energy.

In US, more local.
Juan: Cooling -see A/C with solar?
Yes.
To do it you have to be a geek.

SolarCity - first to put together everything.

Only one call to solarcity.

buy panel, inverter, etc.

No one company doing whole thing.
Ola: Sopogee?
Have done solar A/C. Need to get financing, ...
Alex: Why not in country with more cash.
I'm giving opportuniteis. One of my students is doing this.

Huge opportunity -

market

technology
Do one project for all this.

Alex: And if it is a mobile phone.

Emem: Not answer to every problem.
#3 Clean water.

Water and energy - two most important ingredients of civilization.

And education.

You need water and energy to get food, industry, health.

Wars are fought over water and energy.

I don't separate water from energy. Very tightly linked.

In CA, 19% of energy isused to move water.

LA is a desert.

Water from 400 miles away.

Pump up mountains.
IBM \"Carbon Disclosure Project Report\"
Takes 3 m litres to raise a cow.

An olympic size pool is 2.5 m litres.
Jose: Meat is the most wasteful
1 veg

2 fish

3 chicken

5 cow

7 kobe beef
1 sq km gives 200,000 m^2/day of desalinated water.
Use solar heat to also do desalination.
Opportunites in clean water:

More efficient clean water.

Energy Recovery Inc - that you will visit. Product that recovers some energy of desalinatoin

Lowers cost to desalinate.
Smart Grid

Applications Layer

Al: Security?
http://powershop.co.nz/
Sell power to your neighbor.
Molten Salt, $100 per kW-hour

Andasol in Spain
Electricity storage has to come down about 10x before it makes sense for wind.

$1000 per kW/hr
Marko: Can you produce heat from wind?
Develop storage for $100 per kW-hour, you will make a fortune

Last gas powered car will be built in 2030 when electric storage is $100 per kW-hour.
Electric car = 5x cheaper to maintain.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BYD_Auto
ICEV stands for Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle
Battery pack at $3600 will be end of gas powered cars. Now at Tesla, $25,000.
World has 700 m cars now. Expect 3 b by 2050.

$2.5 T with only 33% market penetration.
#5 Island Scale solar
[pack of 541 slides]
#6 Residential scale solar

Bangladesh - 70%

Grameen Shakti - solar to 75,000 installed in 2008

http://www.grameen-info.org/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grameen_family_of_organizations

Grameen Shakti won a first prize Ashden Award in 2006 for providing photovoltaic (PV) solar-home-systems through affordable loans to 65,000 households in Bangladesh. Its work has expanded rapidly and diversified. With 2,000 staff now operating from 400 local offices, a total of 150,000 solar-home-systems have been installed.

http://www.ashdenawards.org/winners/grameen08

#7 Solar water heaters

Even GE is getting in.

only 12,000 units sold.

Why would GE get into tiny market?

- Benefits 3x more efficient that electric, 2x more efficient than gas

can last 20 years. 2x gas or electric.

No burning of fossil fuels.
CA passed law AB1470.
5:37 [lots of applause]
---

Asides:

Largest renewable energy company -

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iberdrola_Renovables

Revenue: \u20ac1.816 billion (2009)[1]

Growth in installed power 14% year on year 09/10

Growth in Production 21.5% year on year 09/10

http://www.iberdrolarenovables.es/wcren/corporativa/iberdrola?IDPAG=ENIBERRENOVAB&codCache=12805335789899962
Compare to Exxon:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ExxonMobil

Revenue: US$310.58 billion (2009)[1]

Exxon said second-quarter production was 4.0 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, up 8 percent from the same period a year earlier, while its smaller rival Shell said output was up 5 percent at 3.1 million barrels.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/30/business/30oil.html


Canadian Solar Industries Association (CanSIA), The Great Lakes Wind Network (GLWN), the Ontario Sustainable Energy Association (OSEA), the Association of Power Producers of Ontario (APPrO), Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters (CME), the Canadian Renewable Energy Alliance (CanREA), Navigant Consulting, and McMillan LLP.
Confirmed speakers include experts from developers, OEMs, suppliers, FIT program authorities, and finance professionals including:
Bob Chow, Director, Transmission Integration, Ontario Power Authority

Jon Norman, Director, Transmission & Distribution, Ministry of Energy & Infrastructure

Mark Graham, Director, Business Dev. & External Relations, Hydro One Networks

Cynthia Wong, Business Development Manager, Vestas Americas

Rob Miller, Vice President of Canadian Development, Axio Power

Marc-Antoine Renaud, Business Development Manager, Enercon

David Timm, Vice President of Strategic Affairs, International Power Canada

John Stonier, Vice President, Day4 Energy

Ben Kennedy, Business Development Leader, GE Energy

Kyle Rees, Vice President of Operations, Ozz Solar

Mike Switt, Managing Director, Project Finance, Manulife Financial

Jason Gray, Director of Canadian Operations, SunEdison

Elizabeth McDonald, President, Canadian Solar Industries Association (CanSIA)

Kristopher Stevens, Executive Director, Ontario Sustainable Energy Association (OSEA)

Geraint Breeze, Executive Director, Project Finance & Infrastructure, CIBC
"

http://su-etherpad.com/tpenergy-Jul29-Ted-Howes-IDEO

"uThursday

7/29/2010
2:32 pm

IDEO

Distributed Energy Generation

Ted Howes

Innovation design firm

started as product design firm

Really good process for innovation in organizations

health

experiences

environments
Joined about 3 years ago

Sustainability

thowes@ideo.com
[cookies]

You can't take one, just pass it.

Most opportunity - energy

and undesigned space

Not a lot of thinking about human needs.
Working with a solar company - problem is adoption.

They think - everyone wants to be off grid

or home remodel

vs science experiment on their roof.
How do you make it an enjoyable experience.

A smart meter

the gamet

Energy is such an enabling force

The way we produce now it doesn't make much sense.

Incredibly inefficient compared to what you guys are going to be designing.
Jose: People from 10 countries

Plan - NGO, policy or company - impact 1 billion people in 10 years

Bascially we are trying to identify - energy generation, storage

off grid

Africa / India

electricity
Gary: Working as a team since 2 weeks ago. Met a lot of interesting people.

Lot of data.

Not all the same
Ted: That's true.
Gary: So far we've tried to identify and detail the ones with more trend, more established.
Jose: Very interdisciplinary, very international.

Marko -biotech guy from Slovenia.

One guy from Stanford says, 12 TW global energy consuption. Another expert, 16 TW.
Ted: Interested in the human experience.

Emem: I went to your ladies. How could you make something some - power from shit.

How could you make it sexy?
Ted: Thankyou. That's interesting. Concerned you weren't able to leave. Now I understand you didn't want to leave.
Something that is mundane, make it delightful.

Designing a business. How does it fit into an ecosystem.

Gary: Goal is to reach target of 1 billion people.

Find out which are the needs and apply the technologies that benefit.

Jose: Emem always concerned with the poor people, but wants to make lots of money.

Juan/Spain: 1 kW per day for a house that can be off the grid or on the grid, where there is not availability.
Ted: OK. That's interesting. Places unreliable or off the grid.

Jose: We are open. Have to decide next week.

Ted: Figuring out the right question to ask = hardest thing.

Fundamentally we are asking the wrong question.

Hate to do that now.

Think not of electricity - heating/cooking - 50-90% is thermal.

Are we asking the right question?

The best place to address is around thermal uses.

Everson/Brazil: Love to hear more from you. How do you approach people centered designs?

Demographics?
Ted: To back up on our process, how we design. Often times when we think about challenges.

We do design research, not market research - which is good for evaluating, not creating solutions.

You are trying to take statistical sample.

We try - in design - to get inspired. We don't talk to middle of bell curve,

we talk to extreme users.

People entirely off grid.

they exhibit behaviours that inspire us.

Those behaviors migrate into the mainstream.

This one guy who lives on solar - thinks about how much energy comes from his solar panels.

More direct example. Why important.

Ford Motor Co came to use for hybrid eletric dashboard.

Cool project.

When we looked at people - looked at one man who was in accident 15 years ago

Drove 55 mph. Fuel efficiency improved. Stopping more slowly.

Accelerating more slowly.

All behavioral.

Got up to 48 mpg

Did it driving a Ford Escort

How do we take that insight - his needs to maximize that gallon of gas.

Metaphor of coaching.

Designed concepts to coach people to drive differently.
Prius drivers.

Lean in waiting for engine to kick in.

How do we give them the right level of technology.
From there we design concepts.

To get to a nice lovely bathroom like that Emem, it takes a lot of prototyping.

Build it and try it.

We took a video game console, made concept to work like video driving game.

We could test ideas very very quickly.

All around coaching.
Draw insight from unlikely places

Synthesis

Make tangible very quickly
How does that apply here.
Funny we are having this talk here today.

World Bank / DOE / Dept of Defense.

How to distribute energy = particularly.

Absense of need-finding.

How do you assess = not from supply, but in terms of what people's needs are

Think about that as a design problem

pay as you go

entrepreneurs - bright spots that replicate

scalability

Broad tangent.
That's our process.

Juan: Electricity. Enable these people, mostly off the grid to access education / telecommunications

many other resources they do not have without electricity.
Ted: Could not agree more. Changes the world you live in.

Cool.
Ola: What this group should be looking for is both electricity and heat.

Does not make sense to use wood fuel.

To go solar, PV it doesn't make sense - put in battery, then to heat.

Look to energy service.

Lighting - during night. So they do not go to sleep at 6/7 pm.

Right after that = ventilation.

Emem: Fan.

Ola: Cooling - could be fridge, or A/C - worst of them all.

1-2 fans.

Then know what is going on - information, entertainment. TV #3.

Grade it in that order, connect with the people that have problem.

#1 light.

Don't want to hurt myself at 1 am. Use kerosene lamp - burn house down.

#2 ventilation - in Africa 4/5 people -windows need to be closed for mosquitos

Give them fans. It will be hot.

#3 fridge -

#4 heating - people who have that are middle class - use electricity for cooking,

need to be connected to grid

#5 A/C

Looked at that way, better design.
Ted: Describing from demand side. Specific people with specific cultural needs.

How do we make that scale.
Ola: Everybody needs lighting.
Ted: Less from the standpoint of lighting, heating, etc.

If everybody needs these things, how does it come to life.

Do people want to own the energy source?
Emem: I see where you are going.

My thoughts - for instance, in my country, grid power is not reliable.

If solution depends on grid, people will laugh you off.

Cell phone idea works. Network is linked. All you see is your phone and it works.

If people don't physically see the transmission lines, they will still believe it is

the same old thing.

Ted: How does infrastructure drive decision making.

What I like about this space -

layers

Great and very very big challenge.

Thing I'm interested in - how do you make it scalable from an adoption standpoint.

What was the cell phone minutes banking system - Empaca

Mercy/ Kenya: Swahili word for money. SMS. Go to agent. Up to $500. Send to Ola. I've sent you a message.

You go to Kenya and collect it.

It acts as your bank.

If you want to pay a bill.

No credit cards, no cash.

Gary: So you send SMS.

Ted: It is my understanding that it evolved from pre-paid minutes, became tradable as currecny.

Taking behavior people have and making it tradable.

Translating minutes to money.

What about scaling energy as a business and make it rapidly replicate.

Rather than hub and spoke.

Maybe a cell phone becomes a meter.
Everybody now has cell phones.

Not just technology, but how scalable as a business.
Chip Heath at Stanford.
Gary: What happened, how would you deal with your business model crashing against politics? My biggest concern.

Government don't really want adoption of certain technologies.

Nigeria - taxes double price of solar panel.

How do you deal?

Emem: Including generators.

Gary: Stop government?

Ted: Kind of interesting. Solar panels in Kenya.

San: [Hi John. Hi John]

Ted: Intersting to look at analogous examples.

Maybe countries where it can't exist.

That's possible.

You raise a really valid point.

I don't have an answer.

Look at countries where = inspite of govt efforts - change happened.

Ola: On that, I was part of internet wave. Nigeria - still had military.

Very very angry. You cannot get on the internet.

Was a time when we needed to have a demonstration.

Head of state was a dictator.

Somebody came and said, Look at you on the Internet.

Everybody has it.

All over the country, people are getting on the internet, with or without you.
Gary: Not creating a model - customizing model to each country.

Ted: But making those adjustments anyway.

Ola: What bothered me were barriers.

You've got to go into advocacy. Need to remove the barriers.

Can't promise it will be dones in one week or one year, but you've got to keep at it.
Emem: Bring parts in? is that an option?

Ola: If assembled in country, no tarrif.

Ted: An opportunity, not a barrier.

No silver bullet.

Not just one kind of each technology.

Wholistic solutions.

One wind solution that can work on very little wind.

lot less parts

Different kind of technology.

May be different solutions for different places.
What is deliverable?
JG: Back up from impact.
Look analogously. Cell phones.
Juan: Business plan, action plan, perhaps prototype.
Not going to be like an iPad.

Gary: Maybe not generate anything new.

One point of reference - look at ways to scale solutions.

Switch - by Chip and Dan Heath.

Scaling behavior change.

For me, I don't recommend a lot of business books.

But this is a really good one.

Inspiring and supporting behavior change.

Everybody wants energy.

Challenge is - needs business.

Something a little less tangible - maybe brand

maybe social/communal experience - celebration of sorts

Create excitement around it.

Drives adoption.

Great example of brand equity is in here (Apple iPad)

Allows them to charge essentially double.

is it twice as good as a PC?

How does the brand help?

How does that help it scale.
Ola: So it could be a good thing if a known brand comes behind an idea and pushes it?

Ted: Depends.

Coca-Cola - if they come out with something like that.

In Nigeria - all through Africa - gas cylinder. Take it out/refuel.

If you cannot go around that - coca-cola brand cylinder.

Ted: Really interesting.

What is the ecosystem. How does it travel through the system.
Gary: Lot of great small ideas - purify water. Not much technology.

Ted: Using sand in Bangladesh.

Gary: Not much investment - why don't they succeed?

Ted: Same reason small businesses

wrong location

bad financing

no one wrong answer -

Look to where solutions work.

Gramene Schoctee - well known for microfinance.

How culturally appropriate is microfinance - 20 years in Bangladesh.

Everyone knows about it - socially acceptable.



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