Lot of comparison of US / China.
World is at war and china is the battlefield.
Ola: So you are saying it is the rest of the world using china to pollute.
Alex: But they are not saying it is illegal.
Y: Policies drive some of these movement.
JUCCCE started 3 years ago.
Bring big pollutors.
US still number 1 user of energy.
Jose: China overtook US.
Y: Not true.
Jose: US 4x worse.
For Chinese - \"China-US\"
Y: for translations - by sound, by content
Means the thinking.
Example - Leap Frog market, consulting.
Educates you. Trying to crack china.
\"Leap Frog\" in Chinese means jumping toad.
It wanted to be called, \"Leaping Toad\"
outsource - copy right away with a beter name \"Educate while having fun\"
Bush is always Bush. Not \"W\"
People come for training. commercial technologies.
Mayoral training. Have majors compete on eco-city.
Who is best. Cities will compete.
That's how companies started.
Start with gov't support.
Good to teach good practices along with products at trade show.
Work with local utilties.
the way you influence. They are not about change.
Obama wants change and they believe it.
What has happened really - not much change.
In China, pollution in lake. Next day all clenand up. That's change.
We're all euqal.
You have to bring in impactful change in limited time.
- HT Blade. Picture at 360 degree
Wind became #2 in a snapshot - just overnight.
Shanghai - wind turbines everywhere.
Transition from mfg to user of wind blades.
30GW installed by end of 2010.
[ compare coal plant per week - 100GW ]
Not just China, but neighbors.
6-7 GW, going to 60GW of nuclear.
All of solar produced so far is one nuclear plant.
Still far away from wind effecting global demand.
I don't give a lot of hazy outlook on nuclear.
Lots of black snowballs thrown at nuclear - gen 3 coming out.
Unfortunately, ramping up to meet energy demand.
Entire movie - to how grown. Political plot of people -how it is viewed.
It will use renewable energy and sustainability to tattoo this in the people.
Make impactful changes.
Ola: Film in Chinese?
In the China pavillion. At the expo Come to Shanghai before November.
Juan: only 6 years old
Y: Investment has traditionally been from Chinese govt.
Coming from outside. lot of cooperation.
Shanghai district - learned about SV.
SV Bank has investments with entrepreneurs - only way that is sustainable.
Newer companies, within last year are majority invested.
Coupled with Renminbi fund.
Companies can't get money out. Maybe through HK.
For own growth, a dollar and renminbi fund.
Help you succeed.
About 5 years ago, too early.
Solar was oversubscribed.
This thinking started investing abroad.
You went to US quite early. Why not earning a million a day?
Some people are having businesses - so rich. They say, you are owning nothing.
A lot of rich Chinese, don't know what to do with their money.
Can't see it. Don't know if it is real change or not.
Jose: The sign?
Energy and Wind. \"All energy\"
The Chinese language is really basic. Like barbarians communicating with each other.
Everything using this is Energy.
Solar would be \"sun\" energy.
Human energy would be the human energy, drawing of person.
China greentech initiative. Where is China now?
Went province by province.
Pipelines of renewable energy.
Provincial data for growth.
Huge report. How does regional government make decisions. Outsourcing and implementing.
Gathering at end of 2009.
Data is ramping up exponentially.
Usage has dramatically gone up in last 10 years.
So much competition in China - really survival of fittest. If not low cost, you're dead.
Govt says, bid now - or not have opportunity in future.
It is all about face.
Honorary - awareness. Culturally.
All about presentation within negotiations.
Socially first, then political, driven by economics.
If you get the loop of culture, you get to make business.
Americans A to B shortest path.
Chinese walk around it. Essentially get to point B.
That's how you make your deals happen.
So inexpensive - no one wants to do it. Companies do it for face value.
Govt wants face too. They want to be player in renewable energy.
Economically, does not make sense for own people.
Ola: Not making much money?
They are not allowing people to make much money.
Alex: I think about FaceBook ...
Speaking of FaceBook - take a break.
Hu is president.
Wen Jiabao is prime minister.
Yammer - no FaceBook.
So internal system, via illegal system.
Hu did it
Wen will it come back?
Black humor. Underlining it is what says everything.
Alex: How about pension system.
Good question for Hu and Wen.
Social and cultural.
Kids looked upon to support both parents.
If you don't respect family structure.
Since 1976, spoiled brats. But 4 grandparents, 2 parents.
Flip around - aging. Not a lot of social help now.
Chinese always said, Mao will provide.
No longer in that system.
Pension - health issues. All this pollution. Affecting health.
Economic impact - I can make money here. Chinesified old folks home.
Also social impact - govt.
All pressure on that one spoiled child.
I went as volunteer. You see people crying, sobbing, having lost their entire lifeline.
Generation is gone.
It is an economic impact.
Less production - less children growing up to be laborer.
Pricing on mfg goods - trend moving to Vietnam -not yet developed enough to take complexity of mfg.
Jose: 15 more minutes.
Another finding of China clean tech report.
Each nation - energy security.
Always a concern.
Put plant in the Gobi desert?
In Western China.
Issue of intermittency.
Australia is biggest exporter of coal.
It is the cheapest.
Coal gas stove.
New buildings will have solar thermal - more cost effective.
PV need lots of incentives - too much pollution blocks PV in cities.
Solar heating becomes bread winner for domestic consumption.
Here Comes China\u2019s $3B, \u2018Golden Sun\u2019 Projects
China\u2019s finance ministry has selected hundreds of projects totaling nearly $3 billion in costs for its subsidy plan to dramatically boost the country\u2019s solar energy production.
Jose: Chinese govt is wrong - will have much more solar explosion. Even Chinese can be wrong undershooting.
Last slide- Nike.
Bombardier Cpc Propulsion System Co,
Works through revenue sharing.
China is booming.
Renewable energy is in the forefront to save everyone in this war.
Jose: Say last name first.
Wong means King.
San: mentioned cooperation. US/China. In what sense?
On political level. Like competition. Making business happen. On energy front.
Utility using Chinese modules.
Ola: Has renewable firm in Nigeria.
Y: Conergy sells Trinasolar.
You get a bulk rate price. Most demand gets best price.
May not be beneficial for you to go to OEM.
But if geography is strategic - may work out.
Huge shortage in modules.
COO steps way, question comes up - any modules? Gotten that bad.
Alex: What advice for entrepreneurs.
Buying IMF goal - instead of US bonds.
Y: Go for goal.
In financial community, very much into forseeable gain.
China has difficulty seeing their currency outside.
Alex: Where to go to learn?
Y: Gather experts. Get bullet points.
Y: If you are here.
Ola: On the net?
Y: Sometimes useful. Go in person for 3 days.
Look at batteries.
Jose: invite you to become an advisor. Invite you to come back for presentation.
Nanosolar, Larry Page was an investor.
I was arming CEO of Nanosolar. Take my resume to Larry Page - \"What do you need Google for? You're in energy now.\"
Emem: People don't have a lot of money. How can we get cheap solar.
100,000 or 200,000 homes.
Y: Excellent. Off-grid option.
With China - has provided services.
In Tanzania, Kenya - also a lot of tractors made in China.
Commodities such as solar. Trade for commodities such as resources China needs.
Qatar advisor - head there doing lots of projects in rural areas.
Sustaining these projects once built.
Love to advise in that area.
Jose: Repeat schedule. Come for dinner, movie. Not officially released. The premier.
Jose: About Singularity.
Two tracks, sci fi after 2050 and other is interviews with famous scientists.
Need 0.001. Have seen it, but not really. Need to work on that really.
One on exponential.
Jose: Need 5 min. Missing Fabio.
Think we are doing very well.
Other teams having crisis - people / management.
Really happy. Not going to have any trouble.
Mercy sent \"last\" version. Never last.
\"The idea seems to be to show all the ways, regardless of price that 1 Kwh per hour per household can be generated off grid and then illustrate the exponential cost/improvement trends of each technology and how that matches to segmented market needs. It is not clear if they include storage, inverters, etc. in the delivery systems, nor is it clear who the billion people they plan to serve really are and what they think achievable prices might be. On Friday They need to be exceptionally clear about what markets they see and what the current relevant technologies are.\"
__ Need to show exponential.
1,000 True Fans
3:21 Gary: The software.
A great idea.
Can get involved in that: Marko?
Marko: It is tech and business. Doesn't matter which team. I can be like my own team.
Juan: Showing agenda. Divide.
Mercy: 3:23 - reads comment
Al: Should mention people in Africa / Nigeria. Technology depends on the market. If you don't know the community/market, you don't know the technology.
Juan: We can choose now. Part of the job is to choose the country.
Gary: Couple ideas yesterday night - full presentation from black to gray to white - light up whole world.
Jose: Ribbon. Prezi instead of Powerpoint -
Al: looks much better
Juan: Can do it for final presentation.
Jose: Have to put logo of Singularity University
8 item agenda
Alex: I want a sentence - Alex, I need this picture. When. 9 am. Can you do this?
Al: Let's finish agenda.
Juan: #2 - explain which exponential - drop in PV cell cost
Gary: Add in subliminal way - smart machines to tell us. Imagine we have that to tell us.
Picture and one sentence (or word)
#7 Just the teams.
Emem: Follow Rose's advice. Great challenge - an image.
Impact ... exponential
Juan: A graph
Emem: Image Sequence - wood to candle to ... technology.
Jose: Charts with real numbers.
Max 3 to talk.
Juan: 1 / 2 - the best.
Emem: Not got business model. #4 our approach.
Juan: Put we have developed.
Jose: Do that, then review together. Only 20 slides.
Emem: I don't believe the 1% can make that decision. Agree before put on slide.
What is potential.
Things to discuss. Must nail down.
Juan: Here we present approach.
Emem: What is our growth potential.
Gary: Don't put numbers, put ideas.
Al: Have rehearsals at 6.
Jose: Gary / Aledine / Marko present
1 - Gary
2 - John, impact of exponential technologies
Al: regarding first point - electricity - climate change is important too
Gary: If step over developed world mistakes, through easy technologies, solve electricity. Provide time to study, get water.
Al: Energy is also climate change. I know problem is to provide electricity.
San: You can mention it.
Marko: You use pollution - not lose time with global warming.
Gary: Not focus on solving developed world
Al: Renewable justified why - mention almost 2 bn AND global warming.
Emem: 2 birds with one stone
Gary: 3 / 4 - food, water ...
3 - Juan, our goal
4 - Juan, our approach
Juan: Regarding scalability - very important. Start in Nigeria.
Marko: Designing a tool. All sorts of information - feasibility for entrepreneurs to use tool.
Provide energy where it is profitable.
Not possilbe to have in technical point of view.
Emem: Open source software.
What our solution now -
Emem: We can show how. Data come in there. Make sense.
Have optimal solutions. Should not be arrogant.
Juan: Must be discussed. Tomorrow - work on business model.
When they ask about scalability - one approach is to open solution. Entrepreneurs may have/ apply.
Gary: Trends are key. Combined with cost of life of people and resources.
Juan: Can sell this?
Gary: Depending on what you have and what you need, you pick.
Range of solutions.
Juan: Problem is = no electricity, no access to the web.
Marko: Not smart. Only time will work is when market oriented, offering energy to those who don't have it.
Juan: Don't have to solve all doubts today.
Marko: May take 1 year and a half, not 3 weeks.
What timeframe are we talking about.
Gary: How fast established?
Marko: One who tells you such short time, can't.
Gary: Double resources?
Marko: 9 months. Take $1 m.
Emem: How to make money?
Marko: Value to internet? The users. Applications draw them in.
Emem: Let other people use this.
Having thoughts - provide a platform.
Us or anyone else can use that to solve the problem.
Juan: Marko - scalability.
8 Conclusion/Map - San
Alex: Want to make decisions - have control from start to end.
Emem: What to you want Mercy?
Jose: Alex for the domain name.
Alex: Choose the colors.
Mercy/Gary: Where is Fabio?
Juan: I know people - have to finish media thing.
Hind: Did you see http://www.powertothepeople.org/our%20projects.html ?
JG: Completed 38 second Exponential Impact AVI movie.
Used Google http://bit.ly/c4zFxt and ScreenFlow on a Mac.
[Dinner and consulting discussion]
Success is defined by number of offspring THEY have.
General background biology concept.
Not how many people hear your ideas - how many people can those people tell your idea to.
You have multiple goals.
If you give me and all the other people a short, succinct description of what you are doing.
I'm going to a conference. People will be there.
Explain it to me so I can explain it to other people.
I've got someone you ought to meet.
You could be succinct on something ridiculous.
\"I'm building a perpetual motion machine.\"
The rest of your presentation makes me believe you and makes me want to tell other people.
Failure mode if I can't remember what you want to do.
Have people understand.
Have people believe you.
JG: We've got to
Juan: Did you read our development plan?
K: I can read now.
Jose: Would like Marko to make description.
Marko: Develop some sort of model. We will not select best one.
Take all the data from a location, map this and correlate with database.
Here you have maps for insolation, wind, all the natural resources.
Density of people.
Juan: GDP per capita.
Marko: Social on one side. Technology on other side.
third side, financial model we are trying to design.
A geographicinformation system - based on Google Earth.
connect into all the databases.
See where smart to invest.
Not influence 1 bn people by ourselves.
Make tool for people to use.
Link people to energy.
End - make people want to earn money through providing energy.
Link data in real time.
K: So, what you are saying is you are building a match-maker. On case-by-case basis. Particular
charactersitics of area/region with people who would invest.
Marko: Google Earth with energy.
Alex: 3 movies.
First only actors.
Second only scenes.
Third, only voices.
We put these to make something
Juan: Tool, that not only we, to bring electricity - and all entrepreneurs around.
Now we can put windmills in Sudan. Making calculations with Ola vs diesel generators in Nigeria.
Cheaper with solar now. No body knows that.
Now the cost is the right place.
Alex: Watch the movie.
Marko: In 2013, India will be the right place to invest.
Juan: 1000s around the world. USe our tool when and where.
K: See what energy investment is feasible - much earlier than they would have thought.
Jose: Some better for geothermal, wind, solar.
Marko: Even go so far as to point out waste -
Energy map of the world.
K: Like the way you describe it now.
Not each of you impacting 75 m people.
When I listen to you now, it will get across to the audience.
Nowadays we have, through communicationnetworks.
Realtime data on generator in Nigeria.
Fabio: Enable local community to provide data in real time.
K: Underserved, more information they provide, faster results. More data come in.
Emem: Africa. Doing Solar inIndia - very lucrative.
Community based solar - give you back 100% of money.
Jose: This is ...
Emem: Roll out faster.
Jose: Competition in public policy.
Then we also have a hardware part. San Ko?
San: For team project, several people on business model, media.
Business model, make something to keep going.
Have to have killer content, technology. Have to have.
So I was looking for - found Stirling Engine. Could be one of the solutions.
Very easy to build.
What we are thinking about is making big reflective dish. Concentrate on spot.
Stirling Engine seems to be very good.
Make more cheap.
Even when you , for the dish, must track the sun.
For that we don't need the tracker because we have human resources there.
Put somebody to track the sun.
Thinking of building Stirling Engine.
Don't know whether it can collect much energy or not.
Build it next week.
If successful, will make bigger one.
If you are interested, I have a presentation.
Jose: Those are two very good ideas.
Give us additional ideas.
As we called it, the simulation.
Collect solar energy for Stirling Engine.
What is linear
What is exp that apply now
Who are critics going to be
What are they arguing
What exp are kicking in that really make a difference.
Lot more information than before.
Haven't people tried before - they could be your critics if they failed.
What would they be saying.
What was the linear thinking..
What are the exponentials.
Marko: IT, connectivity - in certain city, have app, feasible. Why not have business.
Dropping of energy.
Consequence of exponential
K: Growth of cellphone industry. Can send information out.
IT projections -smart phones around the world.
Look 1 year out. Critical mass of countries. More than 2G systems.
Marko: We were thinking. What kind of measurements can you make.
K: One region where peopleare sending this data and getting it back.
Very fast incentive.
Within a year.
Able to change over - system paid for itself in 6 months.
Here is a set of investors willing to look at this - speed to build, invest.
Much faster than ever in the past.
Marko: People need to input. Databases. Half open source in a way.
Real business model around it is not developed.
Relating to energy faster.
What is your objective opinion so far.
K: It ...
have been people ...
Are there people who maintain energy cost databases in different countries.
Emem: They have data on how much of country is covered by the grid.
How much coal. By diesel.
Silent on individual generation. Effectiveness of grid.
Nigeria - 6 MW of power. Not individual. They generate 30,000 MW.
People paying $200 per month. If you have $100 month, might be good market.
K: Make visible what are currently invisible markets.
Jose: Seeing other teams - how could we improve.
K: General question.
Marko: Survey. Good. Really bad. Objectively - on idea scale.
K: Only by gut reaction. Haven't read all the refences.
See this is sort of a sweet spot. Need quality data.
For people to invest where there is a hidden market.
Possible in 2010.
Marko: In 2005.
K: That part, I get. Ability to do data sharing. Investors invest in companies, in a potential market.
Need investor who wants to invest.
Maybe they will be playing with variables -
just enough sun. Invest solar in there.
Communities saying, we do not have sufficient electricity - how do we ask for investment in our supply.
Marko: See what suceeded. Forcast where else technology can suceed.
Offspring of offspring can really succeed.
Alex: Information - randomly.
Jose: Eric - will have random order.
K: Have to express to me- will I be able to repeat it back to Brad.
Lot of invisible markets because you have to have a lot of data.
Total power / # of people - doesn't tell you anything.
Take into account that as power sources change in price, it may become feasible.
Decision tool that gives really quality decision.
Emem: How do we make money from this?
K: Need to know this now? Or ask the audience tomorrow.
Better to ask, we don't have enough information. Better to ask than to guess.
Jose: Excellent question.
Some faculty might know.
K: Different technologies are changing.
Jose: David Rose said Google didn't know how to make money for the first two years.
K: Faculty and SU. Bernie Phelp. Founder. Not random people from off the street.
Hope this helped.
Emem: Very fresh and open.
K: People in the audience - ask them questions first.
Alex: Now we have our questions ... something like this.
K: Proof is in how you develop this. See really big need for it.
Granular data is important. Countrywide data does not help.
Gary: Scope of project has deviated a bit. Might be one noticing this.
For me, kind of shocking. At the beginning, focus on same point. Bring electricity to everybody.
Get, given their income. We were going to be able to provide the best on to fit their needs.
Sunny area, income, technology.
If hand craft people, more do it yourself.
A lot of range of different issues, not super trending. Such as PV. One that captures 10x.
Things that can provide - say, via Stirling Engine.
Very very easy - from 0 to something watts - for someone who has nothing now.
Not optimistic we are going to bring this.
Keep bringing technologies that are one level up -
Shift, none of you have talked about it - thing excited me most.
Software is great idea. One thing is not going to solve the problem.
Can help external investors. Way above target people - this gap may be 10. May be 20 years.
OR, impact at once - keep on erasing things on website.
Providereal energy . PV panel. Solar thermal - make second step.
0 to something. Then real step. Up from LED.
Have a hands up.
Marko: I have to leave. I have different mindset.
You are only player. I want to connect 1000 players.
I just personally don't.
If probability that you will succeed is higher.
Emem: Before youleave. Believe the way presented, not the way we came through.
Wanted a platform -people to have access. Any would need money - need to give credit.
Then, catalog of services - get credit. For that particular service.
Possilble - progression of ideas.
As we thought more things added.
Marko: I don't know at what stage you thought this. Totally different things.
From point - let's talk later.
K: Since I was part of this discussion. Don't see them as being incompatible.
To be able to do what you are talking requires knowing road by road level to have data on who has
electricity and what type.
Emem: And what they can afford at what time.
K: This database - with map. Investors come in and look for particular characteristics.
Map would glow.
Others, not at investor level, here is tremendous unmet need.
That information is required for anything to get done.
communities talking to each other.
If we can buy 1 millino of these lights.
Different from little groups.
Having information that investors can use. Really good data on who has what.
Two uses for the same dataset.
Question for dataset - \"What will happen in the world when we have really good data on energy?\"
World Bank data.
Person cares about THIS region.
What happens when we do have this in the world.
We don't know yet ...
Gary: Much easier to get from list.
K: SO Cal Edison - 1996- 1999. I did part of that report.
Gary: Real and accurate data to model. Not based on links to internet.
$200 m inhabitants. Don't have super information.
Provide to citizens - both info and technology. Put eggs in the same place.
Emem: horse before the cart.
K: Reminds me of Google maps. When I would look up my own addresss - would be several blocks off.
Has dangerous effects. Google using data from other service. Happened when my neighbor had a heart attack.
I could send information backwards and say \"wrong\" - fix it.
Governments have what they think is data about electricity, but people report, No.
People can alter/correct things.
Not at all possible 10-15 years ago.
K: AS I say, have the thing people can understand.
Emem: How can we enable people to pay for energy.
To be able to do this - have catalog.
Show people what they can afford.
Where technology and resources cross.
Juan: Let's see if we agree or not.
About the business model.
Something self sustainable.
Do we agree on the concept?
Fabio: Not use region.
Alex: You cannot mix a software with a company.
Emem: Other guys already in the market.
Al: Hybrid system - combining different things.
Alex: First question is, \"Who is GISEF?\"
San: Core of GIS EF is sharing with others.
"Alex, John & Mercy:
we can make with IMovie or better
awaiting quote if outsourced
Matt Rutherford said:
I can help advise, and we have Flip cameras. Unfortunately I can't film or edit personally, and our cameras are too complex for an untrained person to use. If you have a budget, however, I can help you hire a camera man and editor ($20/hr each).
Access: Public - see hours
Came to GSP09
Plan for Sustainable Future in Scientific American
- Steps in Analysis
1. Rank energy technologies
CO2 equivalent emissions
Air pollution mortality - one of 5 leading causes of death
Footprint on the ground and total spacing. On the ground, gaps to avoid interference (Wind/Tide)
Ability to match peak demand
Hour by hour
Effects on wildlife, thermal pollution, water pollution
2. Take best. Evaluate replacing 100%.
- Elec/Vehicle Options Studied
Coa with CCS
Hydrogen Fuel Cell HFCV
H produced by hydrolosis
Corn ethanol E85
Cellulosic ethanol E85
flex fuel vehicles. There are other kinds.
Jose: Hybrid and Tesla. GHGFREE license plate.
Has solar on his roof.
Marco: Power plant capability growing exponentially. Better to wait 3-5 years?
Mark: Energy payback depends on insolation.
Few years ago, was $10/W to install.
Now, with subsidies $3/W.
If goal is to solve problems, do it now.
Otherwise, emitting for next 3-5 years.
I spent more money to solve the problem a few years ago.
Opportunity cost of waiting in terms of the problems we have.
Belief system - go as quickly as possible.
Cradle to grave.
For any fuel - CO2 equivalent. Gases or particles converted to CO2 equivalent.
Average 900 g from coal plants without carbon capture.
Nat gas 400 + -> 600.
Coal with capture - low/high - 250 to 450.
10-15% of emissions would remain - about 100 g. But still upstream emissions. On order of 200 g. Still puts you in pretty high numbers.
: So transport is included in that.
For nuclear - low number from industry. high from 2 survey studies, averaged.
For fairness, put both here.
Nuclear - this is not the primary emission.
Hydro. Dams last for 100 years. Low annual rate.
Wave/Tidal - based on studies so far.
Geothermal - binary plant - water recycled/not exposed to air.
Evaporation of CO2 from underground back to air. That's the low number. 13% are binary.
Rest you do get evaporation.
Solar PV. Numbers used to be higher. For good locations, Southwest. You can get relatively low emissions, depends on insolation.
Producing PVs is very energy intensive.
Concentrated solar - more efficient, CSP has larger range. More expensive.
: What is CSP?
Concentrated Solar Power
Q: PV - silicon based.
Q: What about bio?
We'll get to that.
Depends on wind resource.
7 m / s on annual average.
About 15% of Earth over land.
Modern turbine. Calc energy output.
Extrapolate CO2 emissions.
Wind and CSP have lowest.
- Time Between Planning & Operation.
In US, coal burning.
For nuclear, time to put up a plant is 10-19 years.
Site 3.5-6 y
Construction permit 2.5-4 y
Actual construction 4-9 y
Only a few places got up in 4 years. New ones in China taking 7 years.
Hydro. Takes long time, but lasts 80 years. Or 100 years.
Coal - CCS: 6-11 y, with CCS longer
Geo: 3 - 6 y
Rest 2 - 5 y (life ~30 y)
Wave/Tidal life, 15 y
Only one guy runs PV plant.
Run into red tape, zoning issues.
Emem: Large not small scale.
- CO2e From Current power mix
- Loss of Carbon Stored in Land
Vegetation dies. Continuous growth and death or vegetation accumulates CO2 in the ground. Net addition if this is halted by construction. Small number - \x3c 2 g
- TOTAL CO2 -
Add together, get spread.
Wind / CSP .... / Coal
- % change in US CO2 from converting to BEV, HFCVs or E85
Max reduction is 33%.
Can get reduction, but not complete.
If we have battery powered vehicles charged by wind.
BEV are efficient. Plug to wheel is 80% on average. Rest is lost heat.
For internal combustion, 17-20%. Rest is heat.
Just by converting to BEV, efficienty improvement of 4x.
H is very clean. But requires 3x as many turbines to produce the H.
Need more energy to build those turbines.
CSP will get big reduction.
Corn and Cellulosic. E85 - 85% ethanol. Need 81% ethanol.
Convert from gas to corn ethanol, and don't consider land use change.
At best a few % reduction. 2% for vehicles x 33% of vehicles. Small number.
BUT, if you grow corn for fuel, then price change results in change in land use that results in more CO2 due to forestation. Or underforestation - agricultural field.
Could get 33% reduction - but instead get increase
- Low/High US Air pollution deaths, 2020.
15,000 deaths with gasoline. Baseline for comparison.
Corn E85 - slightly higher death rates.
Cellulosic E85, slightly higher yet.
Creates more air pollution to produce it. Lot of diesel to collect it. Won't go through pipelines.
Deaths from particulates, Ozone, etc.
Coal CCS - does not reduce Nitrogen oxides, or particulates.
You need 25% more energy to run equipment, hence more coal burned.
Marko: So you kill more people with carbon capture.
Increase in coal mining, transport, amount burned. Only thing that goes down in CO2. Still polluting with the rest.
About 400 nuclear power plants worldwide. If we look at speading. Nuclear weopons.
There is India / Pakistan - built bombs.
North Korea - to some extent.
Link from nuclear spread and nuclear weopons.
Would need 17,000 plants. If we went to 5% use - we'd double. More would have facilities. More would secretly build nuclear weopons facilities.
If only one bomb explodes in a major city, this is the death rate, annualized.
Something to be considered.
: Direct kinetic deaths, or fall out?
Take Mumbai. 16 m people. 30 years of output. Combination. Assuming direct hit.
One mega city.
Do you NEED nuclear power?
Other technologies don't carry that risk.
Others have zero risk. This is a non-zero risk. Ask BP. Even smallest risk is worth considering.
Reason to buy nuclear power. Don't build it.
Can minimize, but not eliminate. Technologies, like fast breeder. Refine further. More difficult to use/acquire that technology. U is more weopons grade.
Marko: Like saying no virology, because it might be terrorist.
John Smart: This one scales with distribution of energy plants. Pandemics die out.
Marko: Number of people with knowledge is rising.
Smart: Virology may be solvable. Nuclear bomb is not.
Mark: We won't resolve this here.
Look at other technologies, sufficient resource available, so why bother.
17x more emissions, ignoring this effect.
Do you want 17x more CO2?
Smart: Sure there are not any nuclear low conversion? Thorium?
Less likely to weoponize. Other thing - address these problems today.
Inifinite number of things that could happen if things go right.
If we wait 15-20 years, Arctic will be gone. That's the timeframe.
Still need 10-19 years for plant.
Do you want something in 2-5 years?
Don't want to hang my hat on this reason- it is just something to be aware of.
- % changes E85 minus gas from data
specific study we did.
Why more than gasoline?
Acetaldehyde + 4500%
- Ozone isopleth (ppmv)
Constant concentration lines
Move from point - like LA. Move to right, Ozone should go up.
Decreasing NOX while increasing ROG, more ozone.
Now in Atlanta. Lot of vegetation.
Increase in ROG could give you less Ozone.
- Effect in 2020 of E85 vs Gasoline on Ozone and health
Deaths per year + 120, 9% increase. +200 deaths, up from 15,000 per year.
Bottom line. Ethanol is not helpful with regard to health.
- Spacing [photos of wind turbines]
off shore, no footprint, but is spacing.
To power all of US, about 100,000 5 MW.
Currently 50,000 much smaller turbines exist in US now. Might be 0.6 MW.
Can use land around them.
The 100,000 must be in 15% of US. 7 m/s corridors.
0.5% is amount of spacing.
Mark: will show map of wind resources
Nuclear - U mining. Buffer zone around nuclear plants. 10-17 km square zone.
- map - whole US vehicle fleet needs 4.7-35% of US if Cellulosic used.
- Corn - never get 9.8-17.6% used for corn.
Q: Jose: Brazil?
Fabio: Many cars in Brazil have it. 4-5 y ago. Every car is bi-fuel.
Mark: 100% alcohol.
Jose: In terms of landmass.
Higher carbon intensity.
Emem: Sugar cane?
Mark: Better than corn, but less than cellulosic. But they burn the fields.
- nuclear land area. About the size of RI.
Wind could be offshore US.
Emem: No risk like spill in gulf for wind?
Can withstand category 4. Pretty low probability.
Marko: Price per kW hour.
More expensive. On-shore wind, on order of 3-3.5 cents per kW/hour.
About same as new coal or gas plant.
Offshore, 50% higher than that. 4-8 cents per kW/hour.
In US, Wind is second largest source growing.
Geothermal - less space than wind.
Solar - this number too high. this should be 1000, not 250.
Gary: For solar.
This is just for vehicles, about 33% of all energy.
Should be about 130 x 130 miles for all energy.
- Water consumed.
Hydro takes water - evaporation from lake behind dam.
Corn needs irrigation.
Cellulosic takes irrigation.
CSP - thermal, so you want cooling.
Can do dry air cooling. Less efficient, but no water except to clean mirrors.
- World Wind Speeds at 100 m
Anything 7 m/s or faster - yellow or red, really good.
Q: Floating turbine?
Mark: See video.
Only looking at 17 TW total demand in 2030.
- 80 m high.
Netherlands has very good winds.
340 TW over land.
- Matching Renewable Supply to Demand
combine wind and solar to match demand
Actual power demand in CA on June 12, 2005. Split between hydro, solar, wind and geothermal (base).
No case where there was no wind at all locations.
- Overall ranking
- Powering the World on Renewables
Global Power Demand 2010 (TW):
Electricity: 2.2 Total: 12.5 - from EIA. Delivered as opposed to raw power.
We're more interested in what is delivered (AFTER transmission losses)
Electricity: 3.5 Total: 16.9
Global overall power demand in 2030: 11 TW
- Number of Plants needed
5 MW Wind turbines - 3.8 million (0.8% in place), taking up 50% of need
3 kW Roof PV system - 1.7 billion
Emem: Enough to have laundry running, TV on.
Million solar roof program in CA.
The CSI initially offered cash incentives on solar PV systems of up to $2.50 per AC watt. These incentives, combined with federal tax incentives, could cover up to 50% of the total cost of a solar system. The incentive program was designed so that the incentives would reduce in steps over 9 years. There are separate steps for residential and non-residential customers in the territories of each of the State's 3 investor-owned utilities. As of September, 2009, the rebates range from $1.10 to $1.90 per AC watt.
$100 T dollars for installation costs. Would recoup costs at 4-10 cents per kW hour.
All existing systems need to be replaced.
So you are just replacing things more rapidly.
Emem: Efficiency improvements in next 5-10 years.
11.5 TW today. Not sure it would occur or not.
Any more efficiency would be great.
Way to reduce demand further.
Used to spending money on energy, if cheap, they plug in more things.
New Lithium deposit discovered in Nevada.
Optimize by combining wind and solar into super grids.
Problems with island countries near equator.
Look at local resources.
Australia -- huge hydro in Tasmania
Africa and South America - more geopolitical challenges. Cross country lines.
Are resources everywhere.
Optimize local first, then go to larger catchment areas.
Can't just do it with one resource alone.
Jose: Ask outside.
Really incredible. Lot of great ideas.
Last year. Read all his papers.
See roman numeral one at http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/
Have picnic at Mark Jacobson's place
0.1 of ETIR.
Emem: Due ...
Jose: July 23.
Aug 3 final.
Yesterday night at Space team session.
Came from Boston. Incredible presentation. World Future Society.
Next year - organize the same.
Meeting in Vancouver.
Jose: Famous, brilliant futurist. Personal library.
Prof of Future Studies.
Official Masters program at Univ of Ariz.
May create complete Masters program at SU.
5:15 John Smart
My interest is acceleration studies.
Curves - no place where you can get a degree in studying that - yet.
Masters in Singularity Studies.
How fast are these things improving.
We don't know.
Data may be out there, but no careers for people in studying this
except in secondary sub-specialty.
Don't do this within any formal department.
Started A S Foundation.
Just hanging out.
JG: We are fully wiki equipped.
John: Do you have categories?
List of technologies?
Any of which could reach criteria?
Gary: Still trying to figure out.
Jose: about 20-30 pages.
John: Brainstorm outline.
Another thing is companies - which can use private venture capital.
Third thing - policies. Governmental input or large consortium of resources.
Fourth - personal strengths. Team project after ETIR.
Jose: Put visibly.
Emem - you were attracted to 1.7 bn - There is your grand challenge right there. Something new.
Wind turbine - something new there.
Tethered turbines, just over the visible horizon. All on coastal areas - where most people live. No issue with view. MIT prof who worked on this.
Energy storage for electricity- some breakthrough
Super capacitors - bus running for 3 years in China. Recharges at the stops. Will run 3 miles on charges. Can be cycled millions of times, unlike batteries. Capacitor system for home solar - revolution
Compressed air - two really good presentations CAES
Jeffry Greenblatt / Google
study on CAES - grabs air, releases at night. Pretty sweet way to have distributed energy storage. 300 page publication.
Concentrated solar power. Dry way of cooling. Could be really - Juan knows - Andalusia
Trip to see in CA.
Osmotic power. #5.
Figure out which ones. You guys - commercializable? Technically better?
Alex: When in doubt - take both. Peter's law.
Emem: Have to have both of them.
John: What other concerns?
Is process going to come together?
Marko: General knowledge. What are the numbers. How much to buy. Price per kW hour.
Policy in states. How in developing countries.
Be as concrete as possible. Must go from general to specific.
Jose: Good to make those questions in real time to Mark Jacobson.
Juan: Main objective in next weeks - the problem we are going to focus on.
Pick. A million technologies.
Marko: Use as something new.
Alex: We are just guessing. Pick one.
Marko: But pick based on probability.
Emem: Hind did the spreadsheet - see e-mail.
Diffusion of Innovation
\"And it ought to be remembered that there
is nothing more difficult to take in hand, more perilous to conduct,
or more uncertain in its success, then to take the lead in the
introduction of a new order of things. Because the innovator has for
enemies all those who have done well under the old conditions, and
lukewarm defenders in those who may do well under the new. This
coolness arises partly from fear of the opponents, who have the laws
on their side, and partly from the incredulity of men, who do not
readily believe in new things until they have had a long experience of
them. Thus it happens that whenever those who are hostile have the
opportunity to attack they do it like partisans, whilst the others
defend lukewarmly, in such wise that the prince is endangered along
They are way powerful
Really not a market, per se.
I could talk policy forever.
So, let me get started.
How much time do we have?
Issue: talk about 8 hours in 9 minutes.
Go very fast.
Make slides available later.
Point today -there are a ton of opportunities out there.
Give an overview of some.
Within each of these - others are huge.
Emem: Sorry, we are not safe. Way we are seated is not safe. If we have emergency,
you can break an ankle.
Tony: Fair concern. We are in earthquake territory.
Some of the questions I got last Tuesday, I thought about.
They have to do with diffusion of innovation.
Was not going to talk about.
Just present a little bit.
Different technologies, products, spread differently.
Telephone to 100%
Electricity - they follow this S curve.
A few, a few a few and then boom.
On business side of technology,
goes very fast to 80%, then slows down again.
Most technology innovations follow this S curve.
From the product side.
On the consumer side -whether businesses or people - self segrgate along adoption curve.
Here we go 0 to 100% along adoption line.
Usually the innovators here.
About 1 to 2.5% of market, are the ones who are either in deep deep pain
Or are those who take a lot of risks to adopt new technologies.
There is no market in solar/wind. There are many markets.
A Clean Tech Market.
There are a 1000.
Each is a submarket.
You need to choose your market for your product.
Solar City -
Give me profiles.
Tell me about the users? Are they poor? Are they rich?
Sunny or cloudy areas?
Once you have that profile togethter, now we are atlking about a customre.
When you are in the beginning of any market, esp in clean tech.
Which we are now.
Even in CA - 2/3rd o fsolar market
only 41,000 houses wiht PV That's it.
Where do you think we are in terms of adoption.
VERY EARLY at cycle - barely scratched the surface.
This is a new category.
When we have a new category - there is little or unreliable data.
This is to tell you .
Where can I get data?
There is none.
Lot of sources, but all depends on the specific installtion.
Depends on a lot of things.
Whoever wants exact data - it is hard to get.
As an entrepreneur - make decision on leap of faith. Without data.
I'm very very comfortable with unreliable data.
I'm good at getting through to useful data.
Have to be comfortable with that knid of decision making.
3:07 Please don't video.
I should start like baseball / football game . A performance of mine. I own it.
People like I quote here - are not comfortable.
You are here to look at these technologies.
Cusp of many that will change the way we live.
People need exact reliable data don't get it.
By the time the rules of the game are known, the gameis over. There is a winner.
Does that make sense?
Let me show you acouple fo things in response.
Who was going to collect electricity data?
Too easy for you.
Alex: For Monday.
Thiis is data from last week. Someone else's presentation.
Prices in Sicily for electricity.
look at how it changes from 01:00 hours - early in morning
to evening in August.
4x, almost 5x.
Not unusual. Does it cost more in the day.
That is price, not cost.
Fabio: process is the same.
Don't they have to have peak power plants that are more expensive.
Part of my point is - when you hear elecctricity costs, blah blah blah - what is the cost?
It is irrelevnat what the average is. Depends on the day and hour.
Marko: To end user.