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Particular vehicle I found - at Burning Man

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Particular vehicle I found - at Burning Man.

A whir comes past.

So sustainable, it is edible.

The blueberry mobile.

Artistic creation.

Next year, Neiman Marcus took this and sold for $25,000.

From BM to NM in record time.
Ford Model T - MPG -

guesses 10 , 45

Ans: 20 mpg

How many cars - about 250 m . Avg mpg of that fleet: 22.5

Look at that progress.

102 years. 10%.

That's what we call exponential.

this is the kind of progress we are talking about.

Obviously we've got an innovation problem here.

That's an issue.

800 m in world

250 m in US. 4% of pop. 1/3 of cars.

China 70 m cars today and growing rate.

If China gets penetration rate, with 1.5 bn. They'll have 1 bn cars -

About 3 b cars on the planet.
: We're screwed.
What are the issues involved.

Two numbers

US / globally

65% of oil imported into this country

68% of oil we use for transportation - rest for plastics, heating buildings in NE 6%
What % was imported at time of gas crisis - from 25% to 65% dependency.
Here is the issue. So you see here. Total is 85 m b/day.

We consume 20 m b/day. 1/4 of total for 4% of pop.

Now how do we go to 4 billion barrels

Lot of oil in the ground.

Was 2 T b in the ground. Can you get it out? No.

Total refining capacity is 94/95 m bday.

We can add refineries.

But for China, we cannot add enough to power 2-1/2 to 3 bn cars.
Nano - $2K running like wildfire.

Car in India.
US consumption up, production down. Peak oil in 1985. Hubbert.

If you have a half glass and you take out first half, rest is more expensive.
That's where US is now.
- Market Failure

Why have electric vehicles not taken off.

1920 electric taxi in NY - replace battery
Charging stations


Car + oil pushed them out.

First oil well drilled in Titusville, PN,_Pennsylvania

Oil goes to $1.

New cars - ethanol and electric.

Mr. Ford. we can make this really cheap for you.

Last we heard for 100 years
MPGe - because we are agnostic.

Energy density.

Lithium battery. Laptop is 6-7 lbs. Can go for hours.

100, 200, 300 m on one charge. Affordable. Coming soon.
Cars looking better.

Two types

Jan / Feb /Mar

No tailpipe.

PHEV - Plugin Hybid Electric vehicle

Electric but also takes gas.

Elec is a range extender.

Then you go like a Prius.
Nissan Leaf - 95 mile range

Big campus winner.

AZ, Ken,

Gets 80 m on one charge.
Chevy Volt.
Toyota - only 14 m on one charge.

Tesla - market cap.

$1.6 bn.

Not projected to make a profit for 10 years but ...
V2G -

Vehicle to grid technology.

don't think of cars as a place to use energy

Think of it as two way device.

If I at night, put 100 m elec into my car. Only need 50 m to get to work.

I say the following to the grid - bought at 10 cents kW hr at night.

By day, peak time. A/C on, computers on . Grid is hungry for energy.

Must turn on peaker - airplane engine - 15-20 kW hr to run that thing.

Here's the deal Jack - if you take more energy tonight, I'll pay you double what you paid over night.

\"Shaving the peak\" 1-5 pm. Brownouts happen.

Colombia - can't give enough e to everybody.

Rolling brownouts.

This is a solution.

What happens to e at night? Where does it go?

If extra, put it on a hard drive? No.

Imagine a solution - write down solution - a billlion computers with no harddrives.

We have an electric grid with no storage in the system.

If you don' tuse it at speed of light.

If you send it and there is no load, the line blows up.

Coal fired plant cannot be turned on/off. Doesn't work.

only have load of 60%. you have to ground it, into the earth.

Very happy utility if they can sell that energy to you at night.
Distributed storage capacity. THis is the wormhole. Connects transport with grid. Far too expensive to put storage on the grid.

Then make money on arbitrage.

labs have looked at it

Each consumer can make 2 and 4K per year.

Buy low, sell high.

Will this happen first or second year? No.
To charge Leaf - 4/5 hours.

Level 3 - 45 min.
4000 Mitsubishi Leaf - 220V. A few of the high speed.

Had certain usage. Added 2 more of high speed chargers, usage went up 300%, but use only went up much less. What does that tell us?

Psychological aspect to range anxiety.

Non-linear effects.
Rest stops on corridors - level 3 chargers.
We think : own cars, sell cars

Business model innovation.




Wait - I don't have to own the car.

Maybe one car, but not 2-3.

Move via zip.

EV at charging station.

What if Napa, Sonoma - at origin and destination.

Think about ecosystem.

1 shared = 20 owned cars.

Mobility without having to have 3 bn cars.
1/ power

2/ mobility + grid

3/ sharing model


power breakdown

very small renewables


2006 - 16 TW/h

What does that mean?

Today, 18-19 TW/h.

Say I have power plant that could produce 1 TW (does not exist)

By 2030 we need 32 TW/h
4,000 GW.

Capacity and usage are different.

If I run capacity, that's how I get usage.

15 GW is solar.
So, double solar - you get 30.

Even at high growth rate, stilll will have small renewable.
1.5 GW is solar in US.

28 GW is wind.
Asia will surpass
Critical slide here.

- Levelized Cost of Elec for New Baseload Source - LCOE

includes building and running costs
What is happening right now is a non-linear activity in the solar space.
Companies 350, 10 public. $10 b each in China.

Under $1 / W within 18 months.

At 50 cents, grid parity with coal.
NREL - 42% using Gallium Arsenide.
Team in USA can bring cost down about half
Predict under $0.25/watt in 2 years
When solving problems, don't think of 16 -> 32, what if you have 100 TW?
Split into groups, develop business models - based on mobility, power generation. Choice of scale, think of business that takes advantage of 100TW world where power is so cheap. What is something that is now very expensive energy wise.... water (desalinate, store, pump, move....) 20% of energy in California related to water
Sell power at night? Buy it during the day?

Ideas: Deserts in Australia

Magnetic parcel delivery system

Homogenize transportation globally (water, resources, individuals...)

Mining asteroids

Waste Not Want Not Energy Management
Ask yourself, how do we get to the world of

=== end




@ cinema
Transcendent Man

Transcendent Man is the documentary film that introduces the life and ideas of Ray Kurzweil, the renowned futurist who journeys the world offering his ...

Music was quite beautiful. That is Philip Glass.

Somehow Hugo de Garis got the idea that I am an optimist.
Bill Joy's article, why the future doesn't need us.

You'll see Bill McKibben. Shouldn't pursue - too dangerous.

Got notion from Singluarity is Near.
Overall, a beautiful movie just the way it is put together.

I think quite cinematically beautifully done.
Q: Is it a struggle for you?
I was a little worried there when Ray goes into the hospital - is he going to make it through.
Q: We had a partner. He looked - something happened to Ray.
We had him long enough to make the movie. Won't be involved in the marketing.
Q: Do you think it is a struggle for you to contemplate the consequences of technology?
Do you have to work at being a pessimist?
If you realized the problems, you'd never start anything.

Have your mind on a positive goal.

Optimistic humanity will make it through.

Painful episodes. 60 m died in WW II.

Social networks increase understanding. World becoming more




Nuclear bio chemical.

Still 20,000 nuclear weapons on a hair trigger.

could destroy all mammalian life.

Not GNR that introduced risk to humanity.

Decentralized intelligence.

I'm optimistic we will make it through.

Technology will grow exp.

WW II had no impact on this exp progression.

How quickly we use these tech to address problems - team projects - grand challenges to humanity.

How we avoid painful episodes. We are still recovering from 9/11 - that was 3000 people.

downside bears attention as well.
Q: Lot of people - what you are advocating is belief about the future. Directly

opposed by some - violently.

On a TV show - mass uprising to stop technology.

Have you considered this?
I think always been naysayers. Can't fly. Can't land on moon. Whatever you pursue.

Technologies today have increasing capability to destroy humanity.

Catholic Church is to embrace science.
Q: Evolution?
Ray: Did everybody hear OK. Am I clear?

I would say a belief in progress is much more -
it is much more the consensus view that technological progress is happening.

Problems are there to be solved.

When problems occur, how will we solve this problem.

Could not rise up against the machines.

Was literally a movement to smash the machines.

I don't think anybody would think that today.

Internet could spread intolerance, attack our privacy.

Not a mainstream view to get rid of Internet.

Discussion with middle school kids -extremely enthusiastic about FaceBook.

Create society of peers around world unsupervised by adults.

I've asked some of these groups how much the appreciate FaceBook - and they say more than school.

Very important to their identity.

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