68% of oil we use for transportation - rest for plastics, heating buildings in NE 6%
What % was imported at time of gas crisis - from 25% to 65% dependency.
Here is the issue. So you see here. Total is 85 m b/day.
We consume 20 m b/day. 1/4 of total for 4% of pop.
Now how do we go to 4 billion barrels
Lot of oil in the ground.
Was 2 T b in the ground. Can you get it out? No.
Total refining capacity is 94/95 m bday.
We can add refineries.
But for China, we cannot add enough to power 2-1/2 to 3 bn cars.
Nano - $2K running like wildfire.
Car in India.
US consumption up, production down. Peak oil in 1985. Hubbert.
Say I have power plant that could produce 1 TW (does not exist)
By 2030 we need 32 TW/h
Capacity and usage are different.
If I run capacity, that's how I get usage.
15 GW is solar.
So, double solar - you get 30.
Even at high growth rate, stilll will have small renewable.
1.5 GW is solar in US.
28 GW is wind.
Asia will surpass
Critical slide here.
- Levelized Cost of Elec for New Baseload Source - LCOE
includes building and running costs
What is happening right now is a non-linear activity in the solar space.
Companies 350, 10 public. $10 b each in China.
Under $1 / W within 18 months.
At 50 cents, grid parity with coal.
NREL - 42% using Gallium Arsenide.
Team in USA can bring cost down about half
Predict under $0.25/watt in 2 years
When solving problems, don't think of 16 -> 32, what if you have 100 TW?
Split into groups, develop business models - based on mobility, power generation. Choice of scale, think of business that takes advantage of 100TW world where power is so cheap. What is something that is now very expensive energy wise.... water (desalinate, store, pump, move....) 20% of energy in California related to water
Sell power at night? Buy it during the day?
Transcendent Man is the documentary film that introduces the life and ideas of Ray Kurzweil, the renowned futurist who journeys the world offering his ...
Music was quite beautiful. That is Philip Glass.
Somehow Hugo de Garis got the idea that I am an optimist.
Bill Joy's article, why the future doesn't need us.
You'll see Bill McKibben. Shouldn't pursue - too dangerous.
Got notion from Singluarity is Near.
Overall, a beautiful movie just the way it is put together.
I think quite cinematically beautifully done.
Q: Is it a struggle for you?
I was a little worried there when Ray goes into the hospital - is he going to make it through.
Q: We had a partner. He looked - something happened to Ray.
We had him long enough to make the movie. Won't be involved in the marketing.
Q: Do you think it is a struggle for you to contemplate the consequences of technology?
Do you have to work at being a pessimist?
If you realized the problems, you'd never start anything.
Have your mind on a positive goal.
Optimistic humanity will make it through.
Painful episodes. 60 m died in WW II.
Social networks increase understanding. World becoming more
Nuclear bio chemical.
Still 20,000 nuclear weapons on a hair trigger.
could destroy all mammalian life.
Not GNR that introduced risk to humanity.
I'm optimistic we will make it through.
Technology will grow exp.
WW II had no impact on this exp progression.
How quickly we use these tech to address problems - team projects - grand challenges to humanity.
How we avoid painful episodes. We are still recovering from 9/11 - that was 3000 people.
downside bears attention as well.
Q: Lot of people - what you are advocating is belief about the future. Directly
opposed by some - violently.
On a TV show - mass uprising to stop technology.
Have you considered this?
I think always been naysayers. Can't fly. Can't land on moon. Whatever you pursue.
Technologies today have increasing capability to destroy humanity.
Catholic Church is to embrace science.
Ray: Did everybody hear OK. Am I clear?