[please contribute your ideas here, even in advance of the discussion]
We have many communication and collaboration tools available. You have had a chance to try most of them. Which ones are best for the teams to use?
- Email lists (Google groups)
- TP portal pages (wikis)
- SU Network groups
- Shared folders in Google Docs
- Shared Google Doc and Google spreadsheet files
- Google Wave
- group Calendar
- Chat, Skype, Twitter, etc.
- other specialized tools
-- Qtask (project management)
-- Mindmapping tools
-- student offered tools
[add to, expand, or comment on this list]
See powertools page at https://sites.google.com/a/singularityu.org/powertools/
2 minute introductory YouTube video:
June 28, 2010
15:11Derek Jacoby: that's what was up! Everyone is over at: http://su-etherpad.com/tpspace-Jun28-Lewicki
Internet Cowboys Un-conference in Jackson Hole
The ICUC was framed after Tim O\u2019Reilly\u2019s famous Foo Camp. Foo Camp, an annual event hosted by O\u2019Reilly Media, is described as \u201cthe wiki of conferences\u201d because the attendees design and alter the program via big whiteboard schedules that allow for overwriting and rewriting. Foo Camp was intended to reach out to people who can enhance the company\u2019s technological intelligence as well as open the door for opportunities and cross-fertilization between people, companies and technologies.
Some have described it as a meta-birds-of-a-feather session, that gets smart people together to discuss technology issues. This style of event has also been described as an \u201cun-conference.\u201d
All of you are watching what is going on in this space.
If we mention the duck model, we have to look at the fruit fly.
Reduce his diet by 1/2 - increase life by 1/3.
Same in software.
If model was shoving money in throat - created huge burning rate. Poisoned mind of CEOs.
Used to very high burning rate. Had to go back to VCs to get more funds.
When the company is leaner - capability to sustain is much higher.
I will share a bit of my own experience.
Created my first startup in 1969. 41 years ago.
12 years ago, when sold to AOL, began to see the light.
Began to make large number of investments in Israel.
Just write check faster than anybody else.
If you write lots of checks - easy hand on the checkbook. Don't have to be smart.
Invested in typical manner - very early stage investment. Burning rate was quite high.
Come March 2000. This is not going to change quickly.
Had to go and make a very unpleasant decision. Close companies with high burning rate.
Closed maybe 8 companies. Created a ball in the Israeli press.
Wasn't pleasant, but I did it.
From 2000 - 2006, not a single exit.
But invested in 24 new startups.
Due to lack of availability of funds, needed to do it in a capital efficient manner.
Saw, for this specific sector- software tools- you can do it very efficiently.
Marketing to the enterprise is very expensive effort.
You have to hire sales people.
On the other hand, if you can create viral products, customers become your sales people.
If I could find cookie cutter for 400 m downloads.
Globalized, unified theory - 400 slides - less you understand the topic, the more slides in your presentation.
Constant relationship - if you understand well, don't need a lot of slides.
compelling product is a kind of genius - Jobs, Speilberg, chef
Uniqueness can go away, become commodity.
1878 25,000 people went on special train to Menlo Park
Edison illuminated his laboratory with electric light.
Today, you don't consider it - until you lack it.
The compelling product is done by this genius touch.
the genius touch can take different shapes:
Google - simple home page.
Natural ranking by number of links.
Other attributes compelling to users.
Tried to find these young geniuses - what most people don't understand.
How to resonnate with the heart.
Not identifying - barely understand what they talk about. I'm 68 years old.
Sometimes press calls me a guru. Sons are laughing hysterically.
Have a portfolio of young, talented Israeli kids. They tell me - scouts - who is talented.
Idea to create a viral phenomenon. Creating Viral phenomenon is not trivial. Takes this genius, plus luck.
In my portfolio fo 75 companies, I've had 4 really viral products.
When I invest
when I invest in a company you don't know if it will succeed or fail, popular or fail
Point is you can do it today on a very lean budget.
My company Wibia? (http://www.wibiya.com/) has the ... well I don't know if Somebody will come with different data... has Fastest growth in history of internet. 126 m unique users in 12 months. Accomplished by less than 10 people. Investment of $800 m (?)
If you would ask me a year ago if this was planned, it was planned in the following way:
Martin Greenberger, asked when we discovered the internet.
Internet epiphany moment? Chairman of Barnes and Noble - 2 hours after Amazon got on line.
Came home unexpected - found wife in chatroom \"Married, but curious\"
My internet epiphany can be descirbed by the cruise line when a woman fell of the boat in shark infested water and a man jumped off to save her.
Captain told him, \"you are so brave. What is your request?\" He said, \"I want to know who pushed me into the water.\"
We can tell you how smart we were but the Truth of the matter it was luck.
If you are in the trade which I americans call - an angel. The way to do it is to create a portfolio with high beta, high risk. If you use the diversity of the portfolio on your side, you mitigate the risk.
And his conclusion is very interesting, the main reason is not that they are afraid of financial risk.
The risk is that they will be regarded as stupid. We are afraid.
When your are doing porrtfolio of investments, surely some won't succeed
Some will not succeed. People are afraid they will be regarded as stupid.
VCs don't like to go to very early stages. Makes more sense than later, when price goes up.
When I give a talk in Israel, I always emphasize that on top of glorious exit I have a list of 15 failure each more stupid than the previous
And on top of the failures, I have a big list of mis-ops - missed opportunities.
Second life on valuation of $5 m.
Avatars - Mitch Kapor is not the 12th wealthiest person.
Today you can create compelling internet companies with much leaner investment.
It's not risk free, there is a very high risk but if you are wiilling to mitigate the risk you can get some very nice results.
I mentioned the media company, ICQ, answers.com, spitbit [?]
Takes me about 20 companies to create one with virality.
Now my situation as an angel is better than entrepreneur, the entrepreneur can't diversify and mitigate risk
Put maybe 10%. Some tool can be created among the entrepreneurs.
If you have an idea in this space, that's not good in other space, with the tools and
With the collaborative developments of many companies, you can create terrific products with very reasonable amounts of money.
Ron Conway is doing it.
Phenomenon is going to stay. Puts VC industry in a peculiar situation.
Salim: 5 minutes
Bill/US: Spoke about what you look for in companies? People?
Very good point.
First of all I am not doing due diligence. There is no way looking at an idea I can tell.
Much too complicated. Not only about the idea.
Business plan is a sub-genre of Science Fiction.
Common thing to business plan and sausages - only people unaware of how being made will consume them.
If I take business plan as an insult.
100% of plans say, \"terrific\" So what?
Don't look on the ideas - if I look, I have to admit I don't understand.
Looking at demos - kid comes, best work. Bring to me.
I have 2 options - either I don't exhibit enthusiasm - best case, kid will say I am idiot, worst case idiot and conceited.
You have to fake orgasm, after faking 3000 orgasm I get tired and ask not to see the demo
I look for parameters.
How do I identify the talent.
Smartest guys - friends.
How long are you together? You know better who is the really smart guy in the group even if he is really quiet.
Somebody talented - so passionate - I invested in 5 companies - without meeting.
I invested in you - will talk later.
#2 Virtues. Danica Hanaman - happiness talk. Very popular.
Don't commute to work - following this advice will make you happy.
Surround yourself with people you like.
Looking for nice people - not to be regarded as stupid. When I am failing, I need rationalization.
OK, I tell my wife, consider this an extended scholarship.
Lean. Eat their dog food - understand, be the consumers of the product.
Another 6 criterias - if I tell you, you will begin to compete.
Tony: South Korea. Thank you for your talk. In SK, not as developed.
Will take 3 hours. I have 2 minutes.
Hillel. Summarized bible -
In 1992, kick start VC. Government created Vismah?
These are the ways on sharing stuff, the group standard on how to do it.
Be aware. Unfortunately, that's the future.
Dmitry: Cyber-terrorism. Smart grid. Energy flow of nations. If someone hacks the system.
Eric: Human hubris. Belief we are omnipotent. \"We will find a way\"
John Graves: Revenge of Mother Nature. Katrina 2 3 4 5. Sun spots wiping out electrical systems.
Concern of mass hysteria. Hologram projected in the sky. High tech telepresence.
The second coming (of Christ).
Peter: Bacteria that ate petroleum derived products.
David A: Who is left behind. Are we communicating with compassion.
Peter: Get what we deserve.
: What if we have already created a financial system so complex that no one person can understand it. Only thing in control is this non-autonomous thing itself.
Created a technology we don't fully understand and can't control.
Maggie: Adding on to that. World extremely specialized, public participation ceases to work.
Michael Chen: Losing consciousness in mind uploading.
Kafka meets Orwell.
Davidad: Peter Teal - economy ceases to grow. singularity doesn' t come soon enough.
Peter: Robotics come of age. What happens when robots are so robust and cheap that they displace 30% of workforce. No menial labor - because, if you didn't, you couldn't be competitive.
Dan: We work so hard to create AI, AGI. If we create simply complex enough, we get emergent AI. If different from us, quite possible we will miss something becoming self-aware. An oblivious AI starts to optimize world for its existance.
While we work on all our theories. I kind of hope we find out that intelligence is emergent.
Salim: Asked question - what system might become self aware - traffic systems.
Have feedback system.
: Concerned about - imminent. Use of biotechnology- plants- universally used. other biological phenomenon that will wipe this out - 99% of soy beans are one strain in the US.
David Roberts: Regional war.
Huge imbalance of old non-working people.
Peter: Write down ideas you think might be real. Follow up.
Dan: Think that is a real concern, add to that.
Suddenly not just a 2 class society for money, but a 2 class society for human beings.
If rich people can be twice as smart, live twice as long, run twice as fast.
Haves and have nots will be split much more dramatically.
Dmitry: Exponential ability to control individual. Information about us goes into system
so government will have full control over people. Gattica movie.
Salim: Your credit card company knows more than
: Your bank can predict what you will do 7 months ahead.
David A: Manipulations by leaders.
Ola: State of mind. Body is 30 or 20, imbalance. People will become disoriented by body being different age. 5000 year old mind in 20 year old body.
Peter: Government's ability to regulate tech growth - can't set up rules and regulations. Reaction is to clamp down.
Salim: Add to that - we have lost digital rights management battle.
Ability of technology to ...
: Space exploration. Came up a week ago. Changes body goes through in outerspace.
Families, children born that can't come back to Earth. People who can only live in outerspace.
Peter: Called speciation. Small groups, geographically isolated under high environmental pressure.
Focus on 20 years. Very near term for all of you.
Haven't heard robots or nanotech. Just to get you going.
Eugenie: Data at aggregate level. May transform us.
Banking, activity, life. What happens if we multiply that.
Marco: Nano tech. By mistake, self replication gray goo.
Tony: One fear, something like lead based walls, DDT, that we learn later on it is poison.
Davidad: Skynet. Also possibility of someone creating something intended to be self-aware that goes out of control.
David H: Rate of learning is not up to rate of knowledge growth. PhD - tiny advance. Will need more education, not supplanted.
Brad: Transhumanism. May get loss of humanity. What it means to be human.
: As we become more dependent on technology, human obscelence. How to build a fire. If a natural disaster, or something that knocks out grid we don't know how to make it to the morning.
Salim: Our memory exists in this device - we don't remember phone numbers. We don't remember facts, just use Wikipedia.
: Will lose ability ...
Shary: Genetically engineered humans, get undesireable traits.
: Tendency for modelling out risk. Unknown knowns. Tend to focus on information we've got, miss other big picture things.
Hedging particular threat.
Peter: Another 4-5 minutes.
Andrew: Gain edge over people. Push competitive drives. Calculation. More, more efficiently. Works at odds with what is good for humanity. May errode - efficient, intelligent, but eroded society. Making sure we are still human.
: Compassion needs better marketing.
: Resource wars over water.
: Govt may not be able to keep up regulation, society may not adapt morals quickly enough.
: Fed Govt not as useful. In Europe, govt losing power to private sector.
Getting to power with obligations. Concern is - if private sector keeps growing - take all power from public sector.
David H. Human enhancement for rich, choose everything about their lives: their body, their environment. What room for human compassion.
Sasha: Link to Andrew - differentiate information when everything is connected.
If we continue on trend from now, may not get there with exponential technology - deflating markets.
Bryce: Fear is that we have fears. These will prevent us from achieving what we've been talking about. Pre-emptive legislation growing exponentially.
: More people died from living in castles than castles protected.
Something killing us that we think is protecting us.
Salim: Truth/fact is disappearing. Manipulate a large number of people with fake information.
Peter: Last word.
Dan: Things harm us without even knowing about it. We don't let children eat stuff on ground. All kinds of allergies in kids. In Texas, 1/3 of kids using inhalers.
Sterile environment may actually be developing auto-immune reactions.
Too sterile. Upset immune systems.
Marco: More sterile the environment is at young age, the more auto-immune diseases we get.
Dan: Unintended consequences of something we thought was good- preventing kids from eating dirt.
Jan: Global networks, lose culture. Differences produce culture. More optimized life becomes, great art emerges from pain and suffering.
Peter: Join table. Instructions:
AI / Robotics info
Nano to Government/Social.
Nano can go to Other.
You don't have to pick 3, but 3 is max you can do.
Someone with nice handwriting.
Phraseology. Get idea across.
If done in 10 min, put them on the wall.
3 per time period.
Will give you half and hour. If done sooner, we're done sooner.
9:20 Peter: Five minutes!
9:33 [big crowd around wall with 0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 panels]
9:36 Please take your chairs.
Give one small example.
Danger of exponential technology growth. Conceptualizing it.
World cup stadium. 150 m long. 30 m high. You are handcuffed on the top row.
330,000 sq meters. I put an eyedropper, 1mm of water. Every minute I double amount of water on the field. How long before you are dead.
In 49 minutes and you are dead.
At 41 minutes there is 1 cm of water on the ground.
Danger is we just don't see it coming.
THAT's the problem. Biggest concern about these technologies.
You can do the math quickly. Share with others.
What you have done is put your concerns over these 20 years up there.
Take 2 dots and place on the serious ideas per time period.
Don't put a yellow dot on a yellow sticky.
Some are grouped 5-6.
Targeted bio weopons. Sort of range, sort of group.
Actually going to take pandemics - could be naturally caused. Can vote on that separately.
Vote on something that is not part of chunk, move it to the side and vote.
After you have voted, we'll pick top 2 per time period.
Each person gets 8 dots.
Drink your wine.
Peter: someone has to volunteer to take notes.
9:59 This is the fun part.
On the 0-5
No surprise. Number 1 areas of danger: biological killer virus DIY terrorists or grad students.
Notion that individuals maliciously create - 36 votes. Or innocently.
Connor is taking notes for us.
Second here is cyber terrorism. DARPA concerned as well. Inability to retrieve information.
[laugh]Ray K's movie release. Ray/Peter mind meld.
Number 3 - information privacy. The Trial meets Big Brother. Kafka/Orwell.
Take away - as you guys are becoming aware of DIYbio, the higher the threat in your minds.
5-10. Looking quick.
Tie for first.
Enhanced humans/ undeveloped world reacting with violence to widening gap. 23 votes.
Widening gap between haves/have nots.
bioterrorism. Really the theme again here. Last year, we had bioterrorism dominating first 5 and 10 years as well.
Point 3 nanoparticles in food. Hidden effects on health. Worth noting. Latent health issues.
Tied for second. Lose control of financial systems. Has 10 votes.
Storms - Climate change has 4-5
10-15 years. Scanning quick.
Looks like resource wars ... 23.
Water / food / oil. Biggest issue.
If we group these, unemployment due to AI/ robots has 16.
Pandemics has 15. Threat of Andrew Hessel.
Emergence of Dan Barry up here.
15-20 year horizon.
Emergence of AI. Systems aware without our knowledge. Concept of AI as emergent threat.
#2. Reduced cognition due to dependence. That we need to think becomes weaker and weaker.
So we have those main ones.
Issues related to unknown conditions,
What comes after
Send out to entire group (Connor).
Send before the 21st with ideas for businesses, government, non-profits, memes, policies.
You had a long night.
Any questions. Comments?
Otherwise we'll break.
Q: Wondering besides pandemics, any crossed all 20 years.
Peter: Thank you for playing full out. See you in the morning.
=============== POST-presentation notes
" important reasons to believe trends will continue - through depresion and economic crisis today
rent a movie theater (?) for transcendent man
we are the species that goes beyond
ptolemaic view - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geocentric_model
\"enough\" - book - tech is good enough now
\"what the bleep do we know\" - movie - http://www.whatthebleep.com/
\"singularity is near\" - movie - http://www.singularity.com/themovie/index.php
Accelarating pace of change - The Law of Accelerating Returns - vs \"intuitive linear\" view
The key issue and the thing that we really want to recreate in our machines is the ability to do symbolic thinking. The ability to recognize things that represent ideas and give it a symbol. And use that idea and give it another symbol. This is called \"Nested hierarchy of ideas\"
only humans have a substantially large neocortex - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neocortex
Neurons can only do about 100 transactions per second (~1Mx slower than computer) but the power is in the parallel architecture
Countdown to Singularity (is a soft argument in favor of the singularity / selection bias could be the first criticism)
Plot time before present vs time to next event for various human advances. Double exponential law.
15 lists from 15 calendars to generate charts on paradigm shifts
1 - physics and chem
1 -> 2 DNA evolves
2 - biology
3 - brains
4 - tech
5 - merging of tech/humans
6 - universe awakens
Evolution works through indirection: it creates a capability to evolve to the next scale
goal of simulating brain and brain regions: what is algorithm/mechanism that neocortex is able to recognize patterns?
bernoulli's priciple: understanding is responsible for aviation - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernoulli's_principle
Amygdala is programmed to take priority over other regions because we used to rely more on our alertness to danger
total bit capactity for all networks on earth - newly measured form of exponential trends - data from morse code through 4g
MIPS per $ - first coined 40 years ago by Mead
Moore's Law http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moores_law
exponential increase is not a \"conspiracy\", it's just evolution of humanity
War doesn't accelerate or slow down technological progress [when you look at a large enough scale. It might even increase it sometimes. GPS came out of US Department of Defense, eventually given to the whole world essentially for free compared to the astronomical cost of setting it up.]
transistors -> cheaper, smaller, faster (because less length required to travel to generate signal)
total bits \"shipped\" increasing but $/bit decreasing...
Nanotech: the promise to build larger physical objects from information.
Biotechnology is another, important, example: the DNA sequencing cost is being halved every year, growth in genebank DNA sequence data is growing exponentially, etc.
the first cell whose parent was a computer was recently created
First Self-Replicating, Synthetic Bacterial Cell Constructed by J. Craig Venter Institute Researchers
Synthetic Genomics | Options for Governance - link to good report on policy options
nanofactory - MUST SEE! - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqyZ9bFl_qg
There are currently around 50 experiments in animals using manufactured nano-devices for different health-patrolling missions :) (diabetes, ???what else?), drug delivery
IBM developing sequoia super computer - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM_Sequoia
REVERSE ENGINEERING THE BRAIN:
the ultimate source of the templates of intelligence
You can have all the computing capability, but without software, it means nothing.
There are indications that the reverse engineering of the brain is also advancing exponentially.
IBM Moves Closer To Creating Computer Based on Insights From The Brain (\"cat-scale cortical simulation\")- http://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/28842.wss / Dharmendra Modha (http://modha.org/)
higher level emotions controlled by cerebral cortex - irony, humor etc...
brain would take trillions of lines of code to simulate if you look at brain but the genome has much less and there is even much redundancy in it so it may be possible to replicate brain with less than 1trillion connections
Redundancy in the genome. ALU sequence repeated 300,000 (?) times. We can do data compression on that. How do we get complexity (e.g. in brain) from relatively small amount of information? It's through repetition
five parallel auditory pathways simulated
mandelbrot series - billions of bytes to represent as an image but to design it \"mathematically\" is only 6 letters
deterministic vs probalisitic -mountains and cloud generation in video. Brain is a probabilistic fractal
modeling at the right level - Example: modeling physical functions of pancreas is very complex but modeling what it actually does is easy
often the lower level is more complex.
eye extracts 7 separate \"movies\" from each scene
A ten year old really does have to solve a dozen simultaneous differential equations to do a simple task but it is done thru chemistry and is below our conscious level
conciousness is just another biological function (like digestion) vs. no, it isn't... there is no specific definite test to decide if a biological organism has the property of conciousness (The idea of consciousness as a biological function is a Searle concept)...
law of accelerating returns is driving economic growth
1 unit of currency today of computing = 1M units of currency 10 years ago
e-commerce - first 10 years \"not much change\" bust of dot com's
Internet was doubling every year but it wasn't on everybody's radar until 10 years later. These exponential technologies need to be identified. One of these today is solar, doubling every year yet only a few percent of our power is from solar so it's largely under the radar.
destroying jobs at bottom, creating jobs at top
creating more high-paying jobs vs destroying bottom jobs
last year ~4K Mwatts of solar used, total ever as of last year was ~13KMwatts - so last year we have used >1/3 of all solar energy ever produced!!!! - planned to meet all Energy needs in 10-20 years
\"computers will disappear\" but will be ubiquitous - online all the time
augmented reality - iphone apps already
continuous speech recognition - dragon dictation iphone app
concern of hackers breaking into software integrated into our brains in the future
graphs found in presentation www.kurzweilai.net/pps/kurzweilpowerpoint
To what extent is the Singularity desirable?
evolution is a spiritual.....
simulation of human brain: what will happen when you can simulate human brain?
\"super exponential\" growth
use of biological bodies?
backup brain and dispose of body...
explain theory of consciousness?
first step of replacing body with machines - neural implants - end point, completely non-biological but there is a continuity throughout the entire process. not the same as copying yourself?
but all the time, cell by cell, body is naturally replacing itself.... are you constantly becoming someone else?
becoming john malkovich - movie - theme is experiencing someone else's consciousness
\"identity is not my physical body\" - what is identity?
humor can be generated by intentionally stimulating parts of the brain
religion clashing with technological advancement becomming an obstruction?
example: stem cell research - ray supported
Ray had generally positive view that the public mind would accept rather than resist future technology
Powerpoint slides (40 MB) link for direct download.. (note that we will share the file in the SU folders)
The Jack D. Hidary Foundation was initiated in 2001. Its primary aim is to catalyze scalable, self-sustaining programs in clean energy and economic development. The Foundation believes that driving market forces to focus on social challenges is the most sustainable pathway towards progress. The Foundation also supports causes in other areas such as the healthcare, the arts, education, international affairs.
6:02 Peter: My pleasure to bring to you guys, Jack Hidary. Long term friend of mine, tremendous respect for. Please to hear from Jack.
H: Born in a Blackberry.
P: He has actually consumed 5 of them. His own power source. Sold Vista Research. Sold in 2005. EarthWeb - took public with record setting numbers.
Prizes. Electrification of fleets.
Force of nature.
Thanks for coming out buddy.
H: hold up thing - level 2 charger.
Cut it off.
Will try to reattach it.
So long as one person in each pad has it.
First, delve into mobility.
And power generation.
How are cars related to generating power.
To power grid - coal, gas, nuclear not oil
What could be possible tie-in?
Bring them together through electrifying the cars.