Part of individual.
Leaders are those who create transformational change.
Leaders create the new era on purpose.
Create the destruction on purpose.
David A: See pattern.
Problem of leadership is overburdened.
Authority - congress, CEO, ... I'm an authority in a classroom. Does not make me a leader.
Management - organize people and resources within the existing era.
Leader goes beyond law of diminishing returns. Once on top of S curve - not much incremental performance.. Leaders say marginal improvements are not going to cut it.
Local maximums. Not highest mountain. To get to higher maximum must go through valley.
Leaders lead AWAY from local max.
Promote a new era. Introduce technology, social idea, political movement. Need to move.
Leadership is important.
Leadership - narrower than just \"being in charge\"
Few people in authority are leaders in this sense.
Corruption in 3rd world countries - you expect ME to reform system? No way.
Very rare for an authority to be a leader.
Leaders start at the margin. The system is so strongly inertial.
Erez: Can you calculate the plausible distance between two maximums?
No. Is it something we can achieve, want to achieve, will be better?
Risk is creative destruction - and left with just destruction.
Problem with rapid succession of leaders, shake ups, if they don't stay
there long enough, then no progress.
A vision. Come with me. Great vision. Mostly about
Erez: What suggest for leader?
Commit to doing what it takes for as long as it takes.
[Talked about Steven Weber: Success of Open Source]
- The Purposes of Forecasting
In the beginning, we told people not to put forecaster on their resume.
Futurist has become generally accepted.
What is not accepted yet is the name of the field.
No one likes -ism.
- Studies , sounds too academic.
Paul: Career comment. Future Studies, like lots of social scientist. Low barrier of entry.
Some serious anthropologists, some odd anthropologists.
Advanced math has a higher bar.
Peter: Applied futurists like Paul and I.
Not a particular technology we are trying to advance.
\"Preparing Foresight Professionals\"
Santiago: Once you have made a prediction ...
Paul: Way to a good forecast is a lot of shitty forecasts.
Demonstrate how your forecast is wrong.
In my work, I keep a pretty good.
After a couple beers, temptation to talk about being right.
Were you wrong in an interesting way.
Don't shrink from bad forecasts.
Keep a journal. Try for a week or two, look back at what your forecasts were.
Gets you over this hangup of being right.
Some said, 97% accurate.
Sends wrong message.
Telling people what is going to happen.
Andrew: Predictions for end of week?
Paul: Some short, some long.
I sit on the board of Long Now foundation.
Two famous folks made bet about Celtics and US Soccer team.
Bet about US expansion.
Write down what comes to mind.
Don't tell people what is going to happen.
It is the assumptions that we make -
One reason we make forecasts if for people to say \"You are making an assumption.\"
In some cultures, this is a critcism.
When someone does that, we look on it as doing a favor.
Only other way you find out.
Andrew: Other thing about your fly being down - there is a time and place for it.
Peter: What could happen, what is the cause of ti.
- Knowing Different times
I went through clips from SU from EP on YouTube
John Maldin - new era of economics with less debt.
\"History is totally irrelevant.\"
No, it is the only data we have.
Use with assumptions,
Assumptions have alternatives
Deal in multiple scenarios.
- Framework forecasting
How to use information to come up with the forecasts you want to use.
You have on the table the start.
Ross will post slides.
Talk with people who are also in your domain.
Forecasting uses continuity of current era.
But if you introduce disruption - won't speculate about what model will be.
Not a bad assumption - been around a long time.
Problem is not challenging the assumptions.
Andrew: 1000 things that could bring some disruption about - each with 1/1000th chance.
Is there a way to bring to light the
Current era may continue longer.
Future of education - ripe for critical disruption.
How people learn. So industrial. So well protected, insulated.
Has existed a lot longer than it should.
Haven't seen a real disruption yet.
Give it a preeminent place - the \"expected\" future.
What will happen if nothing unexpected happens.
If all of most probable assumptions happen.
Single point forecasts - take that as the \"expected\" not the full range.
Almost ever talk is on the expected future.
Andrew: Most likely scenario is one of the many unlikely things happening.
In terms of absolute probability, there is no sure thing.
The most probable future isn't - Herman Kahn. [ref]
Most probable - what everyone is familiar with.
Steve: To what extent is this an effective technique.
Is it reasonable to say, when going exponential, that it will flatten/ collapse?
Yes, that is the way I think.
The beginning is exponential -
level off in S
third is overshoot and collapse
I don't think there are indefinite exponentials.
Question of level off of S curve - what is sustainable?
If it approaches limit - you get \"soft landing\"
Most systems completely blow through the limits.
You don't return to a smooth, sustainable system. You get collapse.
Image is that of pendulum.
Maximum kinetic energy of a pendulum is where it should stop.
Overshoot and collapse came out of Limits to Growth.
We have introduced idea of limits to growth. Have not introduced overshoot and collapse.
Positive increase is so good, you don't appreciate the downside.
A high performance - if exp past sustainability.
Steve: How to assess?
Book: 2 economists. \"This time is different\"
Paul: It is a wonderful economic perspective in the ways people blind themselves.
Began with Population delusions, Charles Mackay and the madness of crowds.
Preface to 3rd edition.
Men go mad in crowds, only come to their senses slowly and one by one.
Peter: How do you tell what is sustainable?
Growth has gone exp.
Is there more here?
I don't think you know.
Lead technologies create forces that are unbelievable in terms of what came before.
Information, wireless, gives us all that all over again.
But securitized mortgages were. So how do you tell?
Paul: Bubbles are not a bug, they are a feature.
Things people projected did come - but late.
Write up of English railroad. 1850s. Guy who led it had to flee for his life.
But 10 years after bubble.
Steve: Fiber laid.
Paul: Dark fiber- exactly what happens with every other infrastructure project.
People lose money. Next came and make money.
Eric: Quite comfortable with what has been said until now.
What is your perspective on biotech and nanotech.
From my perspective, this really is different?
Peter: There are lead technologies that lead to significant changes to productivity
Securitized mortgages didn't contribute to productivity.
Idea was - spread risk.
Are there technologies that bubble, then go away? Nuclear?
There are some which do not create permanent changes in productivity.
Paul: Other piece - look for deep constants. There are deep, slowly changing things.
Do more and more with less and less. Think of matter required to compute.
Babbage to relays to ...
Bio and nano are just next step.
Does it go with the grain of that change.
Second, what are the beginnings of the S Curve like.
Problem with nano is a definitional problem - do you want precise control?
AI - qualification - can never go wrong in estimating how long it will take AI guys to deliver.
AI guy meets the beautiful blonde. Invites her to his room - he spends the whole night telling her how great it is going to be.
Peter: Growth better than non-growth. Capitalist system.
This is an assumption. Is civilizational bubble going on?
Have we overdone something - that is the Limits to Growth message.
Erez: How to reduce to practice. When we find solution to autoimmune or space elevator.
If you want to know a date, or outcome of an event. Expected future.
Maybe Nagy - extrapolation, run to future time.
Ray has those future curves. What he is doing.
Other is judgemental - Delphi instrument.
Not only estimation, but re-estimation.
Objective data. Statistical data + people's judgement.
U of G
Bill Halal. [ref]
Ted Gordon in 1960s did judgemental
Developed Delphi technique
Future innovations - out 40/50 years.
How much up to this point? about 80% of what they said had occured.
Space station by 1980.
Had us on Mars today.
Everybody in that set expected Apollo to go exponential.
Good so long as there is not an erroneous assumption, that something is not going to come along to change the curve.
Steve: How do you objectively know if a group has that common assumption?
Enable challenge of assumptions.
No guarantee you don't have group think.
Paul: Whole art is picking the group. Have expert interviews.
What is missing here. Do I have enough heretics.
At the end of the day, get you to a place where you can trust your own intuition.
Group forecast will get me to a point where I can get client to a point of trusting own intution.
Peter: What are scenarios.
Paul: Most valuable informants are the ones consistently wrong. Cherish them. Ask them lots of questions.
- Framework Forecasting.
Just the preliminary work.
This little worksheet is a set of categories.
Stuff you find out there does not come with labels
You will get different types of information.
Still a synthetic judgement.
Not a bright line ...
JG : Google trends? Statistical approach.
Used to call it data mining. Text analytics.
Every single piece. No future fact -
No future facts.
Hal Varian - chief economist at Google.
Real time forecasting the present.
Really, really rich
Peter: Even finding out what is going on in the present is not easy.
Google just established a trading desk.
Hiring if anyone wants to work in Mountain View.
JG: I'd like to make that application today.
What would be an example of a new era, disruptive event?
Now go from what , to what?
Sasha: Finite channels to borderline infinte.
Now, what are implications.
Sasha: Depends on perspective. For marketers - massively diverse choice.
Almost to paralysis.
Change what you will buy - Google ad words, versus broadcast TV.
That is a disruptive event - been around for awhile. 10 years?
Sasha: 5 years in terms of moving money.
Implications having implications having implications.
More surprising things we haven't snapped to?
What haven't people noticed yet?
Sasha: Changed way we buy.
In describing the current era, what is the transition going on now.
Erez: Human genome.
Concludes in 2000. What is from/to?
Erez: Single gene to whole genome.
That's the name.
What's the impact.
Erez: 1000s at once.
That's the foundation.
Erez: Went other places.
I really like to understand the future of ideas - concepts.
We all got media from fixed sources. Now a vast variety.
What are other conceptual ideas? The \"something else\" social?
JG: Longevity. HIV/Cancer cures. This will change behavior.
In terms of technique, method. Have this conversation.
First thing to change is the technology.
The more interesting stuff is how economics, politics, environmental.
What will future historians claim was the impact.
Be sure we know where we are today.
Who the stakeholders are.
Identify the interests.
What do scientists, polticians want to get out of this system.
This is the warmup stuff.
Get our arms around quantities, stakeholders.
Then put into motion. Try to create the expected future.
Daniel Kraft, Nov 2009, 1:00-2:15
- Forces of Change: Baseline Future
-Mechanisms of Change
cycles - hard to identify
Highly dependent on time horizon.
We put it in terms of years. Not really that precise.
Having a set of constants.
In your domain, can you think of a constant?
JG: Speed of light.
That's a good one.
Eric: Human stupidity. For me, it's a real constant.
Human motivation. Laws of physics. Biological evolution happens slowly.
Tons of those.
Some people use trends - you should be able to say \"more or less\" of something.
Plans. Influential stakeholders. What is the government, R&D labs planning to do.
For this, assume plans will be successful.
Projections - forecasts made by others.
A lot of what you are getting here.
Describing - challenging, exciting, pretty well understood future. BUT
we know that, but have we considered the categories.
Who would have thought that pharma would have put trace elements of Estrogen into water supplies.
Put change in center. If those happen, what is going to happen.
Trace the ripples of the pond.
Not just wowwie-zowwie. There will be some conflicting things.
A few surprising things. That is an implication, wow.
Not just the baseline, but what the society will be.
Examples (see links on slide)
- Assumptions in Trend Extrapolation
Which data are you going to include?
What if there are other models, an oscillating system?
A simple trend extrapolation gives you different choices.
I set up a false problem. Discontinuity comes around an event.
Fundamentally, that information doesn't tell you without doubt whether system oscillates.
Yes, Excel. SAS.
Bayesian networks. May bring Jeff Hawkins in.
Peter: Look at data, recommend which model.
JG: SAS has a package to do that.
Andrew: Based on novelty - would Bayesian be unlikely source?
Peter: I don't have fundamental understanding well enough.
Start with probabilities,
... very simplistic.
Lot of people say this is the way. Your prior probabilities are your assumption.
Sasha: Media/marketing - moving from hypothesis/test going to responses in real time.
That comes down to influencing the future.
Major way was plan/act
versus sense/respond - real time adjustments.
Not just more data flow. Faster reaction.
I suspect text analytics -way way more common.
- The Cone of Plausibility
The Future is may, not one.
Limit of Plausibility.
Most probable is the end of that baseline. But not likely.
- Scenario Development.
Art of the Long View. Easy read.
- Benefits of stories [skipped]
- The \"Trick\" of scenarios.
What I call the 50/50. Usually not asked to go there.
- Beyond Best Case / Worst Case
Showed this to actuaries.
Low probability is in the center. \"Herein lie dragons\" in the center.
- Words and Probabilities. [table]
- Another Type of Futures Thinking.
Brad Templeton talk - offhand about privacy - an emerging issue.
With alternative futures - there are precursors.
If this scenario were to occur. Let's monitor a few things. See if these scenarios are becoming more common.
- Mechanisms of Change II.
This is a setup, information that leads to alternatives.
GBN technique is the most common - almost taken over definition of category.
Reduces to 2 dimensions.
Paul: Look at Peter Schwartz's book.
At SU, showing new stuff.
5/10 year projections.
Look at plans.
More than happy to go over with your group.
Peter: here this afternoon. We can talk.
Lot like the STEEP categories.
An insurance policy that we don't forget something important.
Put information you get into categories.
Tends to organize information space.
So you don't forget assumptions.
What are some events that occur - not all negative. Can have positive events.
Rest of power point on baseline, then choice - having to do with leadership.
We've all been subjected to that.
Not always happily.
I'm going to stop talking.
Steve: Bubbles can be good thing.
CDO / housing - how was that beneficial.
Paul: I was talking bubbles in technology.
Financial world, ... no.
Peter: Securitization of risk. Not a bad thing. Just so overdone, it created systematic risk.
OK, just so it was not wild west.
They understood Value at Risk - amazingly sophisticated. All assumed liquidity.
It had never gone down - in the history of the US.
Paul: three lines
Bubbles are part of innovation process.
People need to be kidded into investing.
Vincent: Very interesting. Would have loved a concrete example. Still abstract.
Paul: We asked Peter to do this as context. Very specific tomorrow. Then Melanie Swan's specific lecture.
Peter: Not much research, more teaching. Dept of - Texas. Can share baseline. 7-8 scenarios.
So you can see elements and scenarios.
Sasha: Related back to stupid people ...
Looking at tech trends, liklihood of adoption.
To what degree in your history have you seen the best of nature of humans in a system playing whether it happens or not.
Very vested education system.
Probably based on reality.
Media - vested in some ways, not livelihood.
Contribution, mistake education makes is that there are always right answers.
We are saying either no answer or multiple answers.
Try to solve here or there, system gets messed up.
We are teaching answers, does not engender alternative, simultaneously available options.
Rarely is the organization capable of saying, \"I don't know the answer\"
We don't have that habit of thought.
Paul: Cultures having stake. Can they break out of it.
Most people don't change - they just get old and die.
Or people get impatient.
Peter: Culture does collect the wisdom of the past.
Friction to engineers.
Without it, you don't pick up that piece of paper.
If you can't sell the change, that may have been the best change of all.
\"You're just being resistant.\" Maybe that is good.
Some good old ideas ought not be thrown away.
Paul: Oh yes. I hate change.
Something very strange is happening with culture now. Intersection of globalization and local culture.
We are way overdue for a major new religion.
I just have a feeling that is in our near future.
So depressing to think of Scientology.
Peter: Not probable. But really interesting to talk about.
Paul: Not a wildcard. Something happening.
Peter: Plausible alternative future.
ross: Shape of the next religion. Muder, Doug.
Paul: Good thing Thursday.
Paul: Additional workshop
Millenium project. State of the Future report. Press conference.
Chance to get - ink is still wet.
Monday 9-11. Official. You can sign up for it.
In the meantime,
GBN. Latest scenarios.
Then Melanie Swan.
One of the highest rated workshops last summer.
On Thursday, I'm going to be here for informal conversation.
9 - 11. Will extend to 12 if people want to keep going.
Future methods. I'll be here this room.
Jose is dressed as the love doctor.
Jose: For yoga today.
In marathon yesterday.
Tweets from steve:
#singularityu - Peter Bishop - Futures Wheel http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futures_wheel
#singularityu - Hal Varian papers:http://ping.fm/JFloA3 minutes ago via Ping.fm
#singularityu - Paul Saffo - Google has created a trading desk within their company8 minutes ago via Ping.fm
#singularityu - Paul Saffo - Google economist: Hal Varian paper, great stuff http://ping.fm/nRgQs10 minutes ago via Ping.fm
#singularityu - Peter Bishop - One of the best ways to avoid group-think is to chose your group very wisely, and asking people who are consi12 minutes ago via Ping.fm
#singularityu - Peter Bishop - The Delphi Method: http://ping.fm/YPqI917 minutes ago via Ping.fm
#singularityu - Peter Bishop - Dark Fibrehttp://ping.fm/qcrQb25 minutes ago via Ping.fm
#singularityu - Paul Saffo - Extraordinary Popular Delusions http://ping.fm/FznbC27 minutes ago via Ping.fm
#singularityu - Peter Bishop - This Time Different http://ping.fm/TDmww29 minutes ago via Ping.fm
#singularityu - Peter Bishop - Limits to growthhttp://ping.fm/kk7xI29 minutes ago via Ping.fm
#singularityu - Peter Bishop - Long betshttp://ping.fm/vdIfH44 minutes ago via Ping.fm
#singularityu - Peter Bishop - The risk is to go through creative destruction and just create destruction. The reward to going through creaabout 1 hour ago via Ping.fm
#singularityu - Peter Bishop - Leaders are who create the future on purpose.about 1 hour ago via Ping.fm
#singularityu - Peter Bishop - It's all about plausible futures, not possible futures...about 1 hour ago via Ping.fm
#singularityu - Paul Saffo - Creative Destructionhttp://ping.fm/D7XbWabout 1 hour ago via Ping.fm
#singularityu - Peter Bishop - Each time you transition from one S curve to another S curve you have a short term flat spot as transition toabout 1 hour ago via Ping.fm
#singularityu - Peter Bishop - Disruptive events follow an S-curve, much like innovation.about 2 hours ago via Ping.fm
#singularityu - Peter Bishop - Shorter term: Tactical, Day to day: operational, Longer term: strategic changeabout 2 hours ago via Ping.fm
#singularityu - Peter Bishop - Futurologyhttp://ping.fm/AtZPDabout 2 hours ago via Ping.fm
#singularityu - Peter Bishop - Getting it right isn't what matters most, being prepared for the future is what matters!about 2 hours ago via Ping.fm
#singularityu - Peter Bishop - The narrower our expectation for the future the more likely we will be wrong, the wider we make our expectatiabout 2 hours ago via Ping.fm
#singularityu - Peter Bishop - Four reasons there is unpredictable events: chaos theory, complex adaptive systems, critical systems (infrasabout 2 hours ago via Ping.fm
#singularityu - Peter Bishop - Surprised of the decade: 9/11, iPhone, Google, Iraq, stock market crash, Y2K damage, Bejingabout 2 hours ago via Ping.fm
#singularityu - Peter Bishop - Imagination is not accepted as a source of information!!! Case in point: BP Oil Spill
Build Your Own BiotechiGEM - international genetic enegineering machines - off the shelf parts and modular components to build something useful
biggest problem now is figuring out what you want to build
just with your computer, you have equal or more power than drug companies who do this now. their tools were developed 20 years ago and they are relatively crude
Agrobacterium - moving genes into plants
fail fast, fail often
synthetic meat - https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.new-harvest.org/img/files/datar_and_betti.pdf
you cannot be a renaissance person now-a-days! go out and dance more, you just need to find the right group of people. need to be able to network well.
IP property models: you need to do this well because you need to be funded well. since most of this is upselling, you need to show how and to whom they are going to sell this
markets: who's going to buy this?
literally right now, presidential-level biotech talks
training and education, no one knows what they are doing! there is no model for doing this right
sewage rights - usually have most of organics stripped off by growing biological material... actually one of the most rich materials...
use a biological system whenever you can because it's self-replicating
in manufacturing in general, move away from chemical processes (historically easy to manipulate) to biochemical manufacturing. works at standard temperature and pressure, can create specific molecules (sometimes including chirality)
carbon, it is a big deal because of climate change. there is an economy forming... $300M voluntary carbon trading.... what if BP was taxed for its associated carbon content??
offset your flight by swiping your credit card
carbon neutral, biofuels
carbon negative, capture carbon for a hundred years, you have a powerful business
consulting for DIY bio seems like a viable market for a start-up
if SU doesn't take root, then we are in trouble!!!
halcyon, high-throughput DNA sequencing so that we can live longer
bring biotech to non-biotech people!
biosensing, biodefense are very necessary for future
craig venture, take my 90-ft sail boat, go around the world, take samples every 200mi, filter, collect organisms, dry and send back to lab for sequencing.
academic money is non-dilutive
send a blank seed and a DNA-synthesizer to mars instead of sending a tree, or a seed even
cells are hardware, DNA is software
consulting and design, focus energy on one idea. work for free, once you have one contract you can hire staff etc..
do something the big companies aren't going to do (or that they're not going to do now so that you can sell it to them)
create a metabolic pathway for creating opiates that doesn't require poppy plant....
only way to make disruptive change, open source
social networking for funding
must say really provacative things to get published
invest $20 into a couple different biotechs
http://collabrx.com/ - individualized cancer treatment - first 100 are most difficult, then after than 100,000 is easier. only need sample of your cancer cell and a rapidly customizeable biological base. targeted RNA or a virus... need people to invest not VC's... $2M for one person, no ROI
pinkarmy.org - individualized cancer treatments which you can invest in
share share share share share share share share share!!!
entire THC metabolic pathway is available online
current enforcement techniques for meth labs don't work - it moves to mexico, organized crime, bigger, darker and more sophisticated...
Need to watch Blade Runner ahead of session
Films of biological future often dark
How do we understand society's fears?
How do we create a more positive vision?
Themes of Blade Runner still relevant today:
-A.I. (replicants have human-level intelligence, had to implant memories for Nexus 6, destabilized over time, built in 4 year lifespan)
-Elden Turrel neurobiologist (28), made brain, CEO Turrel Corporation, lives in massive pyramidal building, relationship with JF Sebastian (back story never explored)
-J.F. Sebastian, genetic engineer, made toy cyborgs, lives in Bradbury Building, inspired Hessel to become genetic engineer
Key date in genetics; June 26th, 2000, public and private (Craig Ventner's group kicked butt) organizations doing genome sequencing forced to make public announcement (declare a truce)
Backstory as synopsis
One weekend writing exercise -> flesh out chapters
Alison: talked about her ongoing novel synopsis
Science Fiction: foresighting, business plans in advance, sets expectations for future
Comic books: storyboarding
Bryce: media has had negative influence on policy due to apocalyptic vision
Exploration of two main central characters of Tureel and JF -> diverged, struggling vs. king of hill, maps to public and private efforts of genome project
Biology will be one of the main battlefronts economically forward
Who owns DNA?
What is value of your life?
FDA questioning genomic profiling direct to consumer; bridge gulf with between mature hierarchechal suits and casual, enthused, immature DIY communities, FBI proactive about outreach for DIY
DIY have all tools of major lab but still don't know how to use them
Synoposis from today movie
Maps out what the hell happened
Watched Blade Runner (1982 version)
Evolution of Paradigms
Examples from today
What Not(unless you want to)->
Energy source Conundrums
The open internet of things is a network of networks :)
Designed and built for humans
This way of designing of computers cannot hold anymore and go to a new type of internet, that is not only operated by humans but also by things. It must be open right from the start.
Industry Standards = I control it (say the corporations)
We know that it is not enough to start and study social networks and viral marketing or stuff that is already there and deployed, it means we are observing the past and projecting it out into the future.
The last generation of computational devices that built on the old designs are mobile phones.
The next generation is called \"SPIME\"
SPIME = SPace + tIME
Science fiction books are a great resource and inspiration and a design pattern that we can pick up to implement.
(side note: HP started silicon valley, its a power house here. Science fiction books are a great resource)
A Granular World
IP is internet protocol invented by Vinton G. Cerf, (coming to SU)
*** Check out Internet for Peace Proposal.
We have so many IP addresses at home that we ran out of IP addresses. IPv4 can only do about 1Billion Devices
Original Internet is a peer network, what we have now is the opportunity to go back to those rules.
P2P is not a crime, do not criminialize a basic technology.
reference document: http://www.fourmilab.ch/
All computers are IPv6 ready, it just a question now of turning it on.
You might want the address to be permanent
Understanding means being able to give names and call out those names
That is what IP is about (making the world addressable and understandable)
What will change in the future is our desire to take care of our devices. What happens is that all the gadgets are depending on me and designed with me at the center. Even something as something as elementary as charging is such a burden. As the number of devices starts to radically exceed the number of humans on the planet.
(Intel Road Map for what they call the Claytronic Network)
Computing, memory, communication, location, and sensing are the features put in any device then it is a SPIME device.
This is not 100% true, so if it has interspective values, like a depleating charge.
Example: Roomba knows when its charge is depleating and recharges itself and goes back to cleaning.
When the web was invented it was detached from physical reality. It was about access the data from wherever and make them accessible.
\u201cThe formula for success? Double your rate of failure.\u201d Thomas J. Watson, IBM
\u201cThe Internet multiplied a thousandfold our failure rate, without increasing the cost of our success\u201d Cory Docotrow
Generation Isotropy Access
Web Data Knowledge
Web 2.0 Applications Social
Spimes Sensors World
Andrew Chalkin. There is a lot of information. How does this get translated when the information is like a firehose?
ANSWER: Getting to that
Redundancy of Spines
We all know how important it is to make good decisions about climate change\u2026we might want to look scientifically and not dogmatically\u2026if it is happening, we want to know why? We then want to change our behavior, ext\u2026..
So NASA said instead of looking at economic data for the Kyoto\u2026the way they measure CO2 emissions by nations is surveys of industrial outputs\u2026\u2026so they created the OCO (Orbiting Carbon Observatory \u2013 Jet Propulsion Laboratory \u2013 California Institute of Technology)
July 19, 2009, observatory was launched and blew up
We need to rely on a nework that doesn't have a single point of failure.
What will happen is that we want to listen and learn from them, they will listen to each other and learn from each other.
Generation Bandwidth M2M Index
Industrial apps Kb/s 1%
Realtime Web Mb/s 10%
Spime Networks GB/s 99%+
In terms of percenatge of actions carried out by humans, these actions will be very small compared to
Example of machine dialog is going on are the little tics we hear when a speaker and mobile phone are near each other. Its going on all around us already!
Question: Bryce. What determines the frequency of the sounds of things?
Answer: The bit rate. The cell phone is trying to see if the line is clear... and finding a reliable speed.
Most of our perceptional system is based on discarding instead of including.
Photo: LHC http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Large_Hadron_Collider outside of CERN
Question: Can I go back and get to the data that was thrown away (Chiara)
Answer: , the information is put aside and now you have twice as many emails to read. No, you will never go back and read that email, but from time to time you will run a search. So its searchable and you apply filters. The problem is the amount of data built by machine is so large we don't have enough storage systems to keep it even if its only a few days.
This will happen with sensor networks as well.
Important: The network has to be stupid. You don't want to build intelligence into the system.
What is going to happen is that the Spine networks are going to generate enourmous amount of data. W/In ten years they are going to generate more than 1.5 Exobites a day.
Google only touches the survice of the web.
Imagine that you have an email inbox that receives a constant amount of email every day, this is more than can be read \u2013 so you say, \u201cwell there could be something that I want to read here but I can\u2019t now, so I\u2019ll put it aside\u201d\u2026.this continues day after day, so \u2013 you will never go back and ready the email. What you do from time to time is run a search (apply filters) problem though is the amount of data generated by the machine are so large there is not a system that can keep the data even for a few days, so it is gone. This is what is going to happen to the sensor networks as well. One principle at the origin of everything is that the network ahs to be stupid (the internet is stupid) \u2013 it finds a route, the route breaks (it doesn\u2019t ask questions\u2026it doesn\u2019t care) it just continues on to find another route. What is going to happen, is the SPIME networks are going to generate an enormous amount of data, w/I 10 yrs, if we are building SPIME networks, they will generate more than 1.5 EB/day!
Year Network Data
Now Deep Web ~1.5 EB
2020 Spime Network >1.5 EB/day
The answer is intelligence of the NODE \u2013 the decision making power of the node itself, that can not only take data but UNDERSTAND what must be done with it.
Not Blind Anymore
Object # sensors
Mobile Phones 10
Example is the Volvo __ tells you how close you are to the cars around you and let you know you need to be breaking. THE NEW PIECE, if you don't break, it will break for you.
This is new because, technology people love to find solutions without concerning themselves about the consequences.
If we are not alert, society could reject some of the solutions even if its an excellent solution, so the consequences are extremely important.
What is the consequence of the machine breaking your car for you?
- your frightened by the breaking and grab the steering wheel and turn
- if you hit the other car, who is liable? is it you or the car maker?
- the insurance company? who is going to buy the insurance for the AI because it makes bad decisions?
Slide with Bruce Sterling's picture \"Forget trying to pass for normal\"
See slides for multiple examples of internet examples
10-year plan by Justin Rattner to create a claytron netowrk.
What this means you can program the shape of things, not like 3D printers or carving and not as smart as nano-machines (in 20 years). What you can do is tell a piece of dust what shape and color to have, dymanically. Truly astounding.
- 10000 bc total composition of terrestrial biomass in the wild was 98%
- now: is 2%
what do we do now? ( the colisium image)
It is up to us to adapt, in the meantime we cannot loose this planet.
The arctic scientific data images were considered secrete, this kind of hiding of information is recreational scuicide
Device examples that help the world/environment:
Spime Design Workshop
Spime is built to be highly scalable and is targeting over 1M data events in one moment.
Examples, Robotic cars are going to create a network.
relative value of cattle is so high that knowing what it is doing is precious information
Smart grids, Cisco, turning grid into smart netowrk
Health, everything is pointing to the fact that we have to be responsible for our own bodies and how we function. Measurements and alterts of what is going on is going to be a fundamental responsibility of each individual.
Bre Pettis \"Things are changing faster than we can die\"
The internet of things is already hapening
Our mobile networks are sensors
If we are right about this strange place we are in now in space and time, when we recognize that we are going through a single planetary co-evolution\u2026we will have the opportunity to be human again, for 10,000 years we have been living for a time that the sticks we invented brought us to a lower quality of life than what was enjoyed by the hunters and gatherers before, they didn\u2019t live as long, but when agriculture was invented, we suffered a lot\u2026.but now we are suffering (slaves to our machines) that is why we have to set them free in order for us to become free\u2026\u2026.
OR operational research
After winning the war, it was a miracle and we felt science could do anything.
Writes \"As we may think\" and does some amazing prediction
UNNIVAC arrives on the scene and in 1952 first computer used to predict election, pic of Walter Conkrite in front of univac as it's predicting
Before this, prediction was very hand waivey and imagined, Jules Verne, Psychics, etc.
Herman Kahn from Rand corporation, then went to (started?) the Hudson Institute
father of modern day futures and forecasting
RAND started as a Douglas Project, Research ANd Development (RAND)
Asked bold questions about the world after the bombs go off
Most future tools today are awful, it's about asking the right questions
Flying think tank, flying from capital to capital in Africa, giving advice
RAND bomb damage effect computer (more like circular slide rule)
Herman Kahn was the basis of the Peter Seller's character Dr. Strangelove
RAND plays war game simulations that go right into US policy
Using data from nuclear testing for predicting damage dealt to each side
THe first wave of futurists (cold war wave of forecasting) was the Vannivar Bush era
1965 Futures work started to become quantitative, due to confidence
Theodore J Gordon
\"Speech weak here, use latin and shout\" -Winston Churchill speech margin notes
The Delphi Oracle - lasted for centuries, lots of gifts ... it worked
Mandatory reading for futures, got the level pf specifics and vagueness perfectly
Al Toffler [spell?] was the Herman Kahn of the next wave of futurists
As a futurists you should look for ideas everywhere, intellectual rag picker
Today is the 40th Anniversary of Furture Shock by Alvin Toffler, July 29, 1970
This went platinum and is still in print today
He was very serious and this book launched the modern field
Many futures think tanks got started in the 1970s (SRI, etc.)
Office of Technology Assessment 1972-1995, was defunded by Newt because the information was not favorable
(Something about ballistic missle defense)
\"Wisdom is a sorrow, when wisdom profits not\"
Be careful how you deliver the message, it can kill you and your organization
If it is bad news, make sure it's right!
Shell Gas did some great futurist work in the oil crisis, reinvented scenario planning
Moore came along and introduced exponentials via Moore's law
Becomes more mainstream and opens the door for pop futurists
Megatrends - had a huge social impact
Max Hedroom - favorite futurist, predicted 15 minutes into the future
By late 80's people grew tired of pop futurists
1991 The Art of the Long View by Peter Schwartz- best top down appoarch for future scenarios
S Curves - people in silicon valley think things will never end, but everything always ends
1999 - The Long Boom, argued we were in for infinite growth in a time when it was very pessimistic, hasn't turned out to be true ... yet
Pattern of world changing, old tools not working and new tools having to be devloped
Rand Corp has been a great source of forecasting methods with quantitative basis
Pardee Centor for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition - good place to look for tools, but it can take time [?]
911 happened, the real world jumped ahead of our prediction tools
We are running around with antique forcasting tools
When Prophecy Fails - relevant book, post Y2K, religions, etc.
Delphi (Rand 1953)
Scenarios (Rand 1950s)
Cross-Impact Analysis (Gordon & Helmer 1966)
Simulation & Modeling
Robotic cars are a strange thought until you think about how horrible and strange it is to put humans in charge of cars:
Take the familiar and make it seem strange
Take the strange and make it seem familiar
Cross-Impact: think about waves all over the ocean where multiple waves can create a big rogue wave or cancel each other out
Backcasting: Pretend the future has happened and tell the story of how we got here backwards
Futures Research Methodolgy by the Millenium Project edited by Theodore J. Gordon and Jerome C. Glenn
did a great job outlining mulitple futures methods, don't get attached to any one method, just pull out different tools as needed
Google: Hal Varian http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Hal_Varian_on_how_the_Web_challenges_managers_2286
*our algorithms keep getting better (we are poised on the cusp of a huge societal change)\u2026\u2026we have more powerful machines, powerful algorithms, and we have a DATA source (people) AND we have sensors pouring data\u2026.this is a perfect convergence of algorithmic tools, data. He\u2019s making a bet that they can come up with new economic analytics \u2013 thinks that is where we are at.
The futures community hasn\u2019t delivered the forecasting tools \u2013 the prediction market is good for short term things, but it is not good at long term (more an indicator of the zeitgeist and less an indicator of where things will go\u2026\u2026.
Now we are at the present: Haven't had much advancement in futures methods in the last 10 years
Melanie Swan talked about using markets for collaborative intelligence forcasting
Computers and Internet has allowed this to happen
We have people pouring data into computers all the time with twitter, facebook, etc.and at the same time we have automated sensors pouring more data in all the time
The perfect time to come up with some new forcasting tools using all this data
Kondratiev came of with cycle of Prosperity, Recession, Depression, Improvement
Killed by Stalin for delivering bad news
Cortez conquered the Aztecs by convergent ideas, looked like Quetzalcoatl coming from the east on ships that look like winged birds
2012 is boulderdash,
As I said, biggest change from predictions happens after they fail
Harmonic Convergence, solar minimum coincides with Mayan calendar end, modern day superstitious people are more scary than anything else
If looking for a wild card in methods, Joseph Schumpeter (history of business cycles) and Krondratiev) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Schumpeter
On a personal note: Don't worry too much about Team Projects, it's more about he personal connections you made with people
I cherish friends who are consistently wrong, so you can get the opposite pretty safely
Jack, Jose, and Ross are all futurists, what methods did they find most practical?
Jack: Costs $59 to be a apart of the world futures society, journalistic, writes about the future, every couple of years have a conference with 1-2000 people, useful indicator of future
Ross: Likes backcasting, create utopian future of company, go back to present, and then back to past, if you're thinking about a positive future your attitude is changed. We all make 1000s of automatic decisions every day, if you can convey not only an ideastic end goal but the ways to get there then members of the company/org can make decisions throughout the day to move closer to that goal.
Jose: Inspired by The Limits of Growth [?] Jay Forrester
Trend Impact Analysis - uses Monte Carlo techniques
Trend Impact Analysis: A forecasting technique in which a baseline scenario is constructed using trend extrapolation, future events that may affect this scenario are identified and evaluated on the basis of their probability of occurrence and degree of impact, the combined effect of these events is applied to the baseline scenario to create future scenarios.
Paul Saffo: Forcasting is mapping a cone of uncertainty into the future
Morphological Analysis: Matrices between technologies, possibilities, etc. for thinking outside the box
Jack: Scanning - don't look at news for the news but for indicators
Ross: Reducing uncertainty, it will save your company money
Jose: Simulations and Games, huge power and simulations is more and more useful
Paul: If you want to affect change, seem really boring
Fine lines in between larger pads formed in specific orientation.
- Guilding polymer self-assembly using chemical patterns
- can get sub-lithographic lines
- Bio-inspired Self-Assembly
- Start with biogrid
Pattern of large array on silicon wafer
Apply another small particle
- DNA Origami
These are schematics and results
Use these patterns as our biogrid
At every six nanometers or so, there is a site you can address.
Think of this as a breadboard.
Our game is to figure out how to deposit DNA in a very specific way.
In orientation we want.
DNA caused to sit on wafer in the place we want so we can make connections.
Schmatically - cause carbon nanotube, or wire
Project underway now.
Project showing binding at corners.
Smallest addressable unit is 6 nanometers.
Spacing between places you can plug - like breadboard.
Q: What is it about this whole process that allows it to be constantly improving?
If you can make pattern half the size, that leads to reduction of area by a factor of 4.
Can make 4x as many, they are faster.
If you work through numbers, mfg cost is about the same.
Q: Costs will scale - in 3D. Each layer will be about the same cost.
You can improve function - if you build them all into 3D. Will improve performance,
but there won't be a significant impact on cost.
Stuart Parkin - very famous for work on Spintronics.
Entirely new devices for storing data.
- racetrack memory. Replace most forms of data storage.
- build new types of computing devices with new types of elements - mimic synapse.
On lab tour you will see this apparatus.
Put thin films down - 7 ultravacuum chambers. 4 different deposit chambers.
Molecular beam epitaxy?
Ablate materials - atomically thin.
1200 degree C
Sputtering - depost onto substrate.
Controlled by computers.
Cost $15 m so far.
Grown film. SrTiO3 - insulating materials can be superconducing - entirely new materials
entirely new phenomena
Entirely new materials.
Take advantage of spin polarized electrons.
In magnetic materials, can create currents that are nearly perfectly spin polarized.
Magnetic fields - atomically thin.
We introduced a spin valve. Can turn on/off by changing relative orientation.
Changes resistance of this device. Sensing device to detect tiny magnetic fields.
Could increase disk drives by 1000 fold.
With modern disk drive technology - we can produce in a month or so, enough
storage to store all the information in the world.
Different idea - spin polarized current - Magnetic Race-Track.
Mg Oxide. Between two mag layers. A quantum device. Electrons tunnel through the device.
If you extract current - you get electrons with spin from one orientation.
With crystaline materials, further enhance.
With just 5 atomic layers, the polarization is nearly 100%.
If we have these two electrodes with them parallel, or anti-parallel, we can turn the flow off.
During this process, the electron spin is conserved.
Enormous conduction change - x10. Or x5 at room temp.
All disk drives use this.
Magnetic disk drives are coming to the end. Cheap - but very slow and somewhat unreliable.
Glass disk. Magnetize regions - shrink in 2 dimensions to improve capacity.
This is 2D - a single layer.
So, interestingly, read and write - flys 1 nm above this surface. Reading head can crash!
So, how else can we store? Solid state memory. 2D in nature. Single layer of transistors.
Cross section of magnetic device: Magnetic Random Access Memory - simply detect high or low.
\"Cross point array\"
Proposed non-volatile memory - no power to maintain direction. Proposed in 1995.
15 years later. IBM-IFX 16 Mbit MRAM.
Advantage - very high performance.
Very good endurance - no unreliability. Cost is about 100x higher.
Can we develop a new type that has very cheap cost of disk drive
Each transistor is needed to access bit.
One technology would allow us to reduce size.
One bit per transistor - better to be able to store 100 bits per transistor.
Very simple conceptually.
Achieve by another spintronic concept.
Pass current of upspin / downspin -into magnetic material -scattered at different rates.
This leads to idea that up/down has different resistances.
In some simple magnetic materials at room temperature.
Spin angular momentum current.
This spin must be conserved.
Magnetic moments shift. In between is a \"domain wall\"
Electron which is polarized, spin will evolve, spin orientation - delivers a
On electron can change one magnetic movement.
So the domain wall can more.
Demonstrated in last 3-4 years.
Consider a magnetic wire. This wire has two domain walls.
Head to head wall, tail to tail wall.
Compass needle will follow local magnetic field.
Apply a magnetic field.
Domain walls disappear.
Pass current through a domain wall - prediction the domain walls would move.
Now, in the green region,
wonderful invention. Here is surface of racetrack. Nanowire.
100 domain walls in this domain wire.
This whole series can be shifted around racetrack.
Read with tunneling junction.
How do you get walls where you want.
Within this device -
JG: like a tape in a Turing machine
Would have the density of a disk drive. But a million times faster.
Can build a device as dense but 100,000 faster.
Entirely new concept.
Second project. \"Brain in a box\" Modha
Elements to make this possible.
Future? Less of Moore's Law - power density constant? No longer the case
More energy wasted. To overcome this, go 3D.
Way today- take to wafers, stick together with wires.
Need 3D devices, like the brain.
Synapse - about 20,000 synaptic connections - plastic.