Cake is bigger than people are willing to talk about.
Q: BCI bank failure in Italy.
Agree to software upgrade.
Cities on costs.
Pay $1 / ton of water in city.
Israel - 53 cents per ton. Acceptable for urban environments.
Water problem is subset of energy problem.
Leads to policy.
Energy price up? Makes water worse.
Don't make policy for one reason.
Jerry: as much as we can move to salt water agriculture - carbon sink, ...
Q: Parallel - desalinate a lot? change chemistry of the sea water. Be cautious.
Charles, your assignment - when we do Malaysia - have various groups.
Make sure you con is in there.
Q: On that issue - desal is just artificial way, like rain, gets back in sea.
Q: But drastically change ...
Q: Desal - brine comment. Capture CO2 - done at Moss Landing power plant. Create coral like cement. 10-20x stronger than portland cement.
Australia / India / China
Perfected by Stanford prof.
They want CO2 to capture the carbon trading credits to push out more oil.
Q: Exactly why suspicious of carbon credits in the first place.
Jerry: Thank you.
Jim Hurd: Where going in next 4-5 years? Progression. TransInstitution in next few years?
Jerry: TrasInstitution is an idea. Does not exist as such.
My definition is, the governing body has some from
That's the governing body.
People that do the work ...
Notice I just volunteered Charles to do some work.
Money comes from sales, grants
can show value.
Do those things. Govt would recognize not as a profit or non-profit.
Want a government to come up with transinstitional category.
Almost done in Germany.
Get some country to do it. Register MP. Send to others.
Jim: Google acting transinstitutional?
They are what they are.
We are not asking them to move.
If we do our acts, like that Latin American study - not just public/private.
People badmouth the UN, but you are getting the data from the UN.
That's what transinstition is.
Future of MP? I hope that what I say is hopelessly narrowminded looking back 5 years.
More nodes - cyberspace.
Others are geographic.
Arts / Media / Entertainment.
Korea online gaming.
Say, how would the future of AEM look?
Opera in Europe.
Global Intelligence System - within 5 years.
Q: Observation - transinstitutions.
Other countries using constitutions.
People who created US and French - not thought perfect,
but best for their circumstances.
Either circumstances haven't changed, or people don't understand design.
To build better institutions appropriate to our current circumstances, develop body of expertise - out of history. What principles they learned?
We don't seem to be able to do or even attempt to do.
Another study we did last year.
We assumed - relative to financial crisis -
next system may be more complex than what we have today.
So idea was to say, next one too complex.
Make it, cram it down someone's throat - won't be cool.
Open source economics - come out of here.
Economists- state ownership.
Non-ownership is another option.
What is the positive / negative.
Buy CD-ROM on way out.
Assess - what are those seeds - or early attactors.
Salim: Thank Jerry. A great talk.
MP is a great collaborator.
How do we address people
Leadership does not have good exp tech perspective.
One little story:
As a small org. How to manage vast apps.
80 slots. 1600 applications.
Took one partnership in Brazil -
used XPrize approach and accelerating thinking
- one of you will get to go all expenses paid to SV
start with idea to impact Sao Paulo
230 projects created.
Do across Mexico City , Shanghai, lots of impact.
Roll out to 5-7 cities next year.
chief economist - Domincan Republic
My country runs out of water in 9 years.
However we can help.
You personally are the one who can take that and make it work.
Who is the most important person on the team?
Not the techie.
You have all this technology.
Not the UI designer - critically important part. Look at Apple > Microsoft. All about user experience. Understanding interface between user and product.
Not the salesperson - missed by
Sales and marketing is critical - how and why is someone going to buy this.
Not the business guy - OK, so not techie, UI, salesperson, business guy.
: The customer.
Customer focus is vital. In terms of your team,
: The team
Team dynamics are important.
: The visionary
Most important person on this team.
Think of why you were selected.
CAN be one of those. What happens - Bill Gates = techine + entrepreneur
UI + entreprenuer = Steve Jobs
Sales + entre = Branson
business guy + entre = Bloomberg
Role is critical. Pitch us - who is the entrepreneur?
We want to see you
buy into you
Take our money and invest in you.
Why are YOU standing there?
If you have flash movies,
this is not a narrated slideshow =
only you can deliver the essence of you.
I want to see you.
I am going to invest in you.
forget all the other stuff.
It is all about YOU.
What does that mean?
What things are we trying to get out of you?
Things we are looking to get.
What is the very first, most important thing.
Really, really important.
Not ethical stuff.
This is the real deal.
We are talking about investing in you before you have revenue.
It all comes down to
Do we believe in you.
If we get even the slightest - integrity - we will pass.
If Integrity is #1.
Tell how you screwed former investors.
Tell how you screwed customers.
You can't be two faced.
Can't be one person to your employers and another to customers.
You better be one person. True to yourself.
How many of you have seen video on YouTube.
Some speakers at SU had passion.
Passion is really important.
Tomorrow - what is an entrepreneur.
Clearly passion is it.
Now into actual company.
three things under heading of Knowledge
Do you know this stuff
Do you have Experience - knowledge of how to run a business
Even if you flubbed the first time.
High correlation between first success and next
No correlation between first failure and second try.
: First time entrepreneurs?
You will hear contrarian views. Not sure that is a seasoned judgement.
Running a business is really tough.
Takes a whole host of things.
If you don't have. Look for things that stand in place of that.
Skills you'll need for leadership.
Third is - what I call Domain Expertise.
Wonderful idea, but don't know market/industry.
you will hear again and again that progress depends on the
But it helps to know the pain of the market.
Trying to solve someone else's problem before you have run into it yourself.
Someone who knows the problem / business COLD.
That pull a whole company together.
Companies have components, need to be pulled together.
Very few can be techies, pitch vision.
Pairs of guys.
2-3 complementary guys.
Don't need a whole lot of co-founders.
See that you have team together - what does it take?
Leadership - get people to work for you for equity or on the come.
Can't learn it in school
Innate - charisma,
What do you need to look good to investors?
1. Start off strong
2. Slowly build
3. End with exponential growth/excitement
Things the VC knows/understands
Believable upside, believable profit
Things the VC knows are not true
Things the VC does not understand
Things that make me think
Typos, errors, etc.
first slide has business name and logo, your name and title
\"We do such and such in bla bla market\"
Flow of Pitch
Can be anything as long as there is some structure
What do you say?
You are going to be there until the end.
Only exception: someone who started in 1999, got buyout without doing work.
There is rain in your life.
You can either throw up your hands.
Do you think I want that?
I don't want you to give up on that company.
You don't give up on me.
I am buying your soul here.
You damn well better stay there until the end.
You are not going to leave people in the lurch.
What bribes you into doing that?
Here is the endgame.
Not the revenues 3 years out
Not the exact product
Vision of something bigger than you.
\"Changing the World\"
Fascinating Columbia Business School survey
15 different things:
Only two things had any successful correlation -
Not liking to work for someone else. Negative correlation - do worse.
One thing: Vision to create something. Urge to make something big.
Sets you apart from person who doesn't execute.
Changing the World. One person at a time.
World does not work on hockey sticks.
No way 10% of America is going to sign up.
Know how to get from customer 1 to 2. Be realistic.
Early stage, need financing.
I've been here before. Started before. Made a lot of mistakes.
Would like to know you are coachable.
Why would VC want to take over your money losing startup.
Most VCs don't want a majority.
Then you can leave them with responsibility.
This is what you are trying to convey.
I've got this checklist. How do you do all this in 15-20 min presentation.
You do not say it. You've got to show by doing.
Validators. Things you show me.
1. Get on plane. Alan - Apax. Now back into small end.
2. Open Power Point.
3. Type in some stuff - put in graphics
4. Add some animations
FedEx Kinkos, print deck
5. Hand out your slides
6. Read presentation
7. don't get funded
Happens again and again and again.
have people with 10 things, but don't get funded.
We see 400+
50 per month in screening.
Invite pitches - 3 companies come in.
Results were awful. Not investing.
Not serious investors.
We are here to invest. PLEASE help us give us something.
But getting really ridiculous presentation.
FIRST learn how to pitch.
Three things we teach
What you are actually going to talk about.
If all you tell me is the color of your widgets ... no funding.
Irrelevant ... no funding
How to display - slides.
Think about designing structure and content
Think as a performance art.
Every performance has a flow. 36 episode TV season. Set up.
Beginning end. Overarching.
O'Henry short stories. Drama - twist at the end.
Action/Adventure - builds - hero beaten up, comes up to bigger height.
Each has flow.
There is one for VC pitch.
X axis is you 18 min presentation.
When you walk in and start - I'm predisposed. I want to hear what you say.
Start about middle.
Dress appropriately - not tux or bathing suit. Dress slightly more formally.
Dress nicely. Appropriately.
You have from this neutral start. 30-60 seconds - come out with really strong opening.
NOT \"Thank you for being here ...\"
You need to come really, really strong.
Look at body language. If they sit back in chair. you want them to want you to continue.
Start should bear on the company - a personal story, annectdote, compare two unusual thign
big numbers. Needs to have big impact.
What is the lead in.
Maybe 60 seconds - imbue presentation with strength, leadership - maybe humor but no jokes.
Main body - slow and solid build More and more and more.
Adding in yeah, this and yes, and this plays to something else and almost sure thing.
No take a little breather.
Tie with bow.
Then go to moon.
You want them to say YEAH I want invest.
I've seen presentation where people pull out checkbooks ready to invest.
Everything you say reinforces. Then call to action.
That's the feel you want to give.
SU presentations didn't have that- but they were great. Built this way.
What things take audience up?
Simple - A then B then C. Pyramids started at bottom.
Not MC Escher staircase.
Lay foundation. Next step. next step.
Never say something \"how did you get there\"
Entire structure has to flow logically on preceeding statement.
People throw things randomly on the wall and it doesn't work.
Things I know and/or understand.
When I am listening, always trying to find solid ground.
Pitons for rock climber. Move to next.
You are hammering pitons into my understanding of the world.
I know the market, business model -
Big name clients - I understand.
$1 m. I understand.
Words, business models,
Start telling me about nanotech . Not here.
Bring along life experience.
Validators - Ray K says, best ever seen.
Dan Barry - best on space shuttle.
Best of all - revenue and profits.
We'll take anything of someone body else.
Believable upside. Risky stuff. I want to make a lot of money.
$1 m in rev 3 years out - not interesting
$1 bn in rev? Not believable
What are expectations?
$20 m acquisition? Great angel deal, not a VC deal.
They want $200 m. They want, need, the really big hits.
These are things that send me up.
What things send me down. Going down is bad. Need to recover this.
Your heads just fell.
Things I know are not true - it is the end of the game
You are either a lier or don't know what you are talking about.
Know what you say is true.
If not believable - back with proof immediately.
Things I don't understand.
I have to go back and figure out what you are saying.
You've lost me. I'm stuck 2 slide previously.
I don't get this. You are ahead.
You've lost me as my audience.
Things that make me think.
Old line presentation guides suggested this.
If you make audience participate, they will get it wrong.
Plenty of times for engagement - NOT this time.
You have to control entire flow.
You do not want me to think
If youtell me in your strong monologue - 100% market share,
then show me 98%. Inconsistency = error.
Typos, errors, unpreparedness.
you want to double, triple check.
Test with differnt fonts, projectors.
Nothing that looks like a stupid error.
Very first slide?
Analyze this example.
MASHERY - what is that?
Turnkey Developer Programs for API Vendor
- no one knew what that means.
Completely lost me.
Convertible Preferred Series As Update
August 2006 -- I don't know the date?
Presented to NY Angels -- I know who I am
NY NY - I know where I am too
What is missing?
YOU - the name - no idea who he is or why to invest.
Happy ending - ultimately investeed.
Icon - his logo
Name of company.
Got rid of useless BS.
A visual to hang onto
Name of co.
Guy I'm betting on
That he is CEO.
How long can you look at this.
Ever look more than 10 seconds?
3 seconds, then look back at me.
First rule of simplicity.
What should the overall structure be?
You look - that was designed.
Opening 30-60 seconds. Discuss what to do. In 1980 a guy named Herman Hollerith developed tools for census. Company become IBM.
While I was walking here, I tore my pants, but no injury. What happened?
Usual - Table of Context - BLAAH. Do they tell you the end of the plot at the movies?
You do not do this.
A little grain of truth - provide setter - the overall thing.
We are the world's largest designer of widgets.
Are you builder, buyer, ...
This level sets.
You put everything else in this context.
Tell overall picture.
Validate what is going on.
All kinds of ways to do this.
What Garvin did last night - 6 things
A B C vs A B C
Does not matter how organized so long as there is a structure.
Tell them - give them takeaway.
For venture - particular sequence.
Who are you
Now this can go one of two places. Here or at the end.
Decide based on you and the business plan.
If critical about YOU, put it here.
We created EBAY and now ...
24 years and 4 PhDs ...
OR, just Bright MBAs ... put at the end. Team to excute.
Market / Pain
Where you are going at the end.
Sizing - buggy whip market not of interest. Know market is big, growing.
Know there is hole.
Big. There is a hole.
Product / Solution
Pitch to VC is not product pitch.
VC is investing in company. Here, need 5-7 min of product.
If spend too much time ... won't understand business.
Screen shots of the website.
If not, Hiding something??
business model = how you make money. Buy for 2, sell for 3.
Free, trade up.
Make 1 cent for every widget we sell.
Alison: Best way to show something tangible.
Do not pass things around. During this one type of participation.
No live demo. Totally controlling this one 18 min segment.
Plenty of time for demos, tours, meeting your mother ...
This is under control.
: How many slides?
Roughly - 1 slide per minute. 15-20 slides.
charter cities - what was business model Who benefits? Cuoi buono?
You only make money if somebody actually gets it.
Give me names.
Not women 18-24. Which particular women.
Getting to Market.
Everything is critical
How do you actually sell.
If end customer can't see it they are not going to do it.
Know competition absolutely cold
More times than I can count, I know competition better than pitch.
Third premium rum company in 1 month
Not know about stelth - be sure you know who is in your space
If I have to ask about somebody- you don't know your market.
Competition can be old ways of doing something.
Everybody had competition.
Buying something else
What is special about you.
Previous was point by point.
Lock on channel?
here is way we came
who doing it
getting to market
make money off pieces
When people start with financials - no context.
Financials go at the end.
History and Status.
How much raised, what valuatoin, what terms.
Raise and Valuation
What is timeline - where does this take you.
To breakeven or close to it.
My investment - not hanging out a year and a half and need more VC.
Give all this in logic progression.
how would you react.
Oh, yeah, OK, see this. Got that nailed. Need this.
Exit if 5 years. Where do I sign!
Then why me. Your portfolio, skill set.
That's the structure.
10 min break.
Cocktail reception in atrium.
Go out the top - 2nd loor, exit in back. take stairs up.
nice setup -enjoy rare sunshine in August.
Mention - Peter Dreyfuss. Partner with Bro[?]
David: Thank you for hosting.
Chris: Transmedia Capital
Peter is Managing Partner with Bro.
Nice spread for you.
But first, the end of the story.
Entire last section was about what.
So, do you require powerpoint
the greatest speakers did not require powerpoint
How many powerpoints did -
Say it then show it, don't show it then say it
Image you use should support u=you and create emotion in the audience
Use presentaion tools: Powerpoint, Keynote, PDF, Google Apps, Prezi
Don't use animations or transitions if they distract
Everything should add not detract from the presentation
A tool is only as good as its owner
David's TOP 10 TIPS
1. Only CEO can give the money pitch
2. Use your own computer & projector or check equipment before hand
3. Pace, roughly 1 minute per slide
4. Don not stroll or fidget, you can move with purpose and direction
5. Do not tell jokes ... ever, be natural, relaxed, and likeable
6. Handouts are not your presentation, hand them out after if your need to
7. Always use a remote
8. Do not do a live demo
9. Do not read your speech, should be able to do presentation wihtout anything even if power goes out
10. Do not look at the screen
It's all about you, you, you, go get 'em.
For more info:
If you have a co-founder?
The best presentations are by one person, there can be some exceptions if its completely equal
Don't force anything, try to calm yourself down and be natural
Q and A mandatory?
Depends on the format, for this setting, yes
How much of the Team do you want to see?
Headshots, simlpe mini bios
What if they stump you?
Say \"thats a great question\" it could be a big factor, let me get back to you, etc. BE HONEST
Start with this, boil it down to ten minutes, then 5 minutes, then 1 minutes, then 8 seconds
Once you have the 8 second essence you can blow it out to any length you want
Will this play internationally?
Absolutely, these are the universal basics
David Rose: Now go to TED.com and rate these presentations, look for the concepts discussed today
I didn't get hired by Google because I know anything about search.
I know about energy and the environment.
At age 7, I was a cub scout.
Parkas trimmed in wolverine fur.
I said to my mother, \"how could they sell this parka.\"
So she said, write them a letter.
They discontinued selling this item.
Worked on President's commission for accident on Three Mile Island.
Stanford Law School
Worked as Asst Attorney General
Cases in nuclear waste
7 years at NRDC
Spent a lot of time going after DOE
Chief of Staff
Asst Sec for Renewable Energy in Clinton admin.
Excess of $1 b budget to do all sorts of good things.
Went to VC backed business
Private Equity Capital - investors in late stage projects for clean energy.
Until Google decided to create
Google.org - philanthropic arm.
Made shift into the core of the company. Involved in the
Sit with engineers.
Brad: How many on Energy team 
What are the other 4 teams?
Brad: How many went to Bloom? 
In my very building.
Brad: Moore's law - the power law.
Getting fast without getting too hot.
Don't ask me about the first. I'm not an engineer.
At the core for me has been this passion for energy and the environment.
Used a whole array of tools to get things done.
TIME Special Report
Decline of phytoplankton.
- Escalating Carbon emissions
- This will not be easy ...
83% Reductino by 2050
- \"The best way to predict the future is to invent it.\" Alan Kay
extraordinarily exciting ways of getting at it, with lots of benefits.
Trillions will need to be invested.
Keep up with demand
address security issues
major economic stake.
We did Google clean energy 2030.
What is we were really going to ramp down on coal.
It was illuminating.
- Clean energy job potential
Clean energy 2030 could create 9 million net new jobs
-No silver bullet - lots of 5% to 10% solutions
We'll do it a whole host of ways.
- The Elements of Success
Technologies Policies Finance triangle
Sustainable Energy Future
Engineers think what is the fix
without thinking about capital.
What are the risks the financial community
Local, state, federal.
The more you address with these three in mind -
Part of the stop/start approach - most of us are stuck at one corner of that triangle.
Why is Google involved?
- we are a significant consumer
- we are committed to building a clean energy future
- we have a talented group of engineers who want to help tackle critical energy challenges
- we believe there is inadequate investment in R&D, technology companies and innovative products
- Our employees and products can help
- Tomorrow's Smart Grid
Renewable Source -> ...
- But Edison Would Recognize Today's U.S. Grid
Brad: Tesla would recognize it.
We've got a long, long way to go to turn this antiquated grid into a smart grid.
Where do you start?
With Efficiency. Low hanging fruit. Low hanging fruit grows back.
The things people want are the services.
\"Cold beer and hot showers\" - Lovins
Low and no-cost stuff is all on effiiciency side.
All here today in large measure at very low cost.
Exciting things from solar to advanced fossil tech are all at the other end.
Green House Gas
McKenzie curve. Low cost to high cost.
Boring old refridgerator. Used to use almost 2000kWh/year.
Now, can't sell one that uses more than 450 kWh/year
Source: US DOE
Due to 2001 Standard
- Building a Fridge to the 21st Century
(pun on Bridge)
Brad: Take a MWh off grid with solar. $1000
Replace fridge: $100.
So lowered demand for electricity that calling solar company, they said
\"your system is too small\"
It costs a lot lot lot more today for solar than for more efficient fridge.
our take on this at Google is information
If you can't measure it you can't improve it.
energy bill - numbers no one understands.
You owe X
Imagine a grocery store, no prices on anything.
Not how people shop for food.
But that is how we shop for energy in our home.
- Informed consumers:
How many kW-h do you use?
What appliances use the most?
What time of day do you use the most?
How much have you spent?
What is most cost effective?
Q: Is it just that electricity is so cheap?
For some people, it will not matter.
some people, given
- ET meets IT
Bahavioural stuff -
If I just give you information - gets you 5-15% savings.
If you realize 35 year old fridge is costing you a lot ...
if smart devices are making deals all the time - a lot of broader benefits.
Back to the triangle.
Every household will have real-time access
iGoogle home page link:
\"Knowledge is Less Power\"
- How Google PowerMeter Works
GE announced device which clips to fusebox
- Twitter / Began using Google PowerMeter yesterday. Decided it's time to buy a
more-efficient clothes dryer today.
Pool pump running constantly.
Q: How do power companies feel?
It depends. In CA, it is in the interest for utilities to help you save.
In other parts, they don't.
Brad: If energy use is in the daytime.
Peak load lower.
In certain parts of the country.
Q: Company services?
ours if focused on homes. We and others are helping commercial. Savings are bigger, easier to get and further along.
Some progress made.
Not nearly enough.
Vast, cheap opportunity.
- TOM'S SHELL
After market Ford Escapes
On tech side:
fleet - charge up under large
1.5 MW PV
Hymotion L5 Lithium Power
Google employees use this.
Hire professional drivers to drive 2000 m like average consumer.
Eric: Can I take a picture of this?
3 cent British Colombia hydro ...
Cheaper to fill up on electricity
Brad: How many kW h to count as a gallon of gas?
Depends on the car.
Good and not so good ways to charge.
100 degrees at 6 PM, everyone plugs in.
Better to plug in at night.
Beyond that, raises a set of opportunities to charge a large number of cars.
Wind in CA blows at night when we least need it - but what if you had millions of cars
Simple example of smarter application
Integrate new appliance - chargable car.
Drove Chevy Volt. Fantastic car.
Not a pure electric. Hybrid gas/electric. Gas runs engine to charge battery. \"Serial hybrid\"
Broad interest coming.
Eric: Mileage per gallon?
Don't know if Chevy has said.
Q: Does it make sense?
That is their judgement. Parallel vs serial - debate has gone on for decades.
GM's view: let's just run everything through the electrical system.
Rather than a separate drive system.
Nissan- all electric makes more sense.
Q: Tesla- lower cost?
Very excited to add real cars to our fleet.
We have employees.
Brad: Is an employee here with his and hers Teslas.
Interesting place to be testing. Good data collection.
- RE\x3cC: Renewable Electricity Cheaper than Coal
Need to compete much more directly with primary source of electricity
\" Where oil fields are really found, in the final analysis, in the minds of men \"
= Renewables Can't Yet Complete with Coal
Others are coming down cost curve. Can we speed up?
Put money into universities and labs
On tech front :
big mirrors in the desert - how to lower the cost of the mirrors
Fracture rock, put water down there
No scientific show stoppers
- at 3.5 km, tens of thousands of MW
- at 6.5 km
Brad: What could go wrong?
Chris: EGS / hot rock
Water you put down can just go away.
Q: What do you put down?
Put little balls in water to keep cracks open.
Lots of natural gas to be collected.
Q: Risk of radon?
Whatever is in the water, could come up.
I'm not sitting here today telling you this is the answer.
This is one of the more creative ones.
What is exciting is the size of the resource.
Nevada - 145,000 MW.
Texas - ...
Just the size.
Another thing that has happened.
A lot of technological advances
Potter Drilling - new low cost drill could get you to these
- Clean Tech Investments
Brad: Larry Brilliant, spoke. Managed Google.org
Potter Drilling - drill with heat, not tip.
Q: Graph, potential at 10 km down. How do we know?
In Texas, yes.
In other parts, we know less. Increasing interest to go to those depths.
Data quite rich in West.
You'll hear announcements about the size of this resource in places that would be surprising.
Eric: How much efficiency gain?
Depends on the category.
It is very large and cheap.
That is why we have to start there.
Other countries have done a lot better.
One reason I don't dispair about climate is the number of ways we could conserve.
Average home in US, cut bills 20-40% fairly cost effectively.
Q: Any other techniques to go down?
Lots of models from shallower wells. I don't know what else you can do besides direct measurement.
Invested in wind in N. Dakota.
Power purchase agreement - 110 MW project in Iowa.
Also investing at end - big projects built - sizable and aggressive way.
Dog finally caught the car.
Stimulus package -
worked on Energy stimulus. Go to work - suggest speding $1 bn, 15 min later - \"triple that\"
All spent in 2 years.
Plug in cars
Big money 5/6/7 bn into smart grid
Whole host of things that will make a big difference.
One house passed carbon cap.
Have not made much progress in Senate.
May be money related to oil spill in Gulf.
Q: Add up all the agencies.
How much energy increase?
Q: Google talks, Thorium? In money for research?
Stimulus money being spent in areas including advanced nuclear. Don't know specifically about thorium. Not biggest bet right now in advanced nuclear.
- CEDA Clean Energy Deployment Admin
Silicon Valley gets pilot stage. First few commercial scale projects - $500m - for a single project.
Walk you through our current thinking about geo information
10:45, Tanya will join me, give demos.
Environmental / global change.
Very impromptu - usually casual.
- Our goal is to organize the worlds' information geographically- to provide search and browse for all information tied to Place and to provide the data and a UI substrate for context and understanding.
In the process, we are creating a global map of unprecedented comprehensiveness.
- Mirror the World
We have our own satellite
50 cm resolution
It is great to have that sort of independence.
We fly planes.
High Resolution Overhead Imagery
Resolution gets below 50 cm
Planes doing oblique imagery \"bird's eye view\"
Automated 3D Reconstruction.
All about creating the canvas.
- > nM miles collected by > n00 vehicles
- Published in 21 (old) countries
Inertial momentum unit
GPS, WiFi antennas
What we get out of it -
laser scan, get facades
- Understanding the 3D Space from Imagery
castro st. mountain view
Automatically show the places in Street View.
Bank of the West
Some of the magic is from OCRing of text in the picture.
Pinpoint the specific location of the business
Here is the coverage in front of the ferry building in SF
We also go where cars can't travel
Here is our bike and ski resort cameras
This guy is an engineer, a friend of mine.
Here is the panoramic camera, mounted on a cart
Allows us to go into businesses, get inner space view.
Q: How easy to blur faces and plates of cars.
We worked very hard on that.
Big team working on that.
Fascinating. Widely different.
Flickr map of how people set their default sharing.
What can be done with the imagery - once we blur, we don't actually keep originals.
- Open for Users
So that is the mirror world.
stitch all together
Create the perfect canvas
once we have that canvas - open to users to express themselves.
Q: What is last continent?
Q: ... how big?
Must engage world to build base map.
> 500M Earth activations
> 1M hours per day
> 50% of the world's population covered by high-res imagery
Users using markup to put metro system maps
All of the streets in one city
100 m locations that people have entered
- Panoramio and photos.
- 3D. Building maker. 20 seconds and you are done.
Evolution of the GeoWeb
- May 2007
every piece of lat/long on the web
every 6 months - so just within 2 years
availability of canvas
ballooning of GPS devices
We can serve and organize for users
Every single geographic point we index.
Lines are routes of planes.
Lot of heat in China.
Once we got to that level, need to put information in a more ordered way.
Thought about opening for people to edit.
- Let Users Edit Everything.
Google Map Maker
Allows users to map everything they want.
Kaladgi = somewhere in India
Empowered user - trusted user so addition is added.
Others do golf courses
All one way streets in Argentina
Mapping under the clouds in Ivory Coast
Madurai, India - before /after
The community empowering itself.
Go to YouTube mapmaker channel to see animations
Brad: Why not import Open Street Map?
Open Street Map - an open data source.
Having discussions with them.
Technical is one challenge
The other is licensing
Copy left issue
We have made this data open for download for non-commercial purposes
We donated post-earthquake images to Haiti
Everything mapped by users over the last 2 years.
- A global, accessible base map
Teaching class in Africa
- San Francisco
For error reporting
Every point here is someone shouting \"this is wrong, fix it\"
We get on it pretty fast. More than 5000 submissions ...
Q: Done manually?
For now. Goal is to empower users.
Most would push red button \"this is wrong\"
More semi-automatic stuff. Very tough vision problem.
Vision gets you to 95% accuracy, but you don't know when you are wrong.
A lot of semi-automatic.
Q: Analytics? Georeference? Say, area of lake?
We are building some.
Provide data - for non-commercial.
100s of partners including UN. Population density.
Q: How do we request it? I tried Hong Kong - cannot map my home.
Open in 169 countries, HK not included. Will roll country by country.
Tricky to get from existing quality to user only quality.
HK will take some time.
Click on Earth.
Now getting 3D in the browser
I can zoom to downtown SF.
What do we do with imagery and how refresh it?
Dots are pictures.
A comprehensive world of imagery.
Can zoom from one photo to another.
Users will keep this up to date.
All based on users. Just going to accelerate.
Brad: Singularity University question: where in 5 - 15 years.
Every person will have a mobile device.
Everything will be continuous location.
GeoWeb is going to 100x, a gazillion times bigger.
I'm most excited now about going into a place.
Casa Lupe - some random place in Mountain View.
Aspects about that place.
Related my maps
Ballooning of information.
Used to be only 10 reviews - now we have 1000s of data items on every place.
Use cases - what can I actually do entering the store.
What have my friends told me = a search within place
A lot of information about places
Drive click through.
Give context to governments.
Google Earth outreach team
Usage of technologies to better give context
If you have any questions about maps, let me know.
Have some fun. Good luck.
NGOs use Google Maps and SketchUp
Political advocacy - Appalachian Voices
10 people and a dog
So let's zoom in.
Built this layer -
mountain top removal for coal mining.
100's of mountains, as far as the eye can see, have been blown up.
Wanted to show what was on the hillsides above them
scale of destruction.
Used to fly politicians over the area - only way to see the scale.
Then they discovered Google Earth
We showed them how this would be done.
Guided tour of mountain top removal.
Embedded video of actual blasts. It is horrendous.
Also got before and after imagery.
This is slider, from before to after.
Goal is to change Clean Water Protection Act regarding overburden.
Took people on this tour. In Google Earth - you can actually see the blast holes.
You can see drag line in satellite imagery.
SketchUp shows a model - with a pickup truck/person for scale.
One other example: Defenders of Wildlife.
Empower people - give place to put videos of oil, dolphins found on beach.
You can also see amount of oil and gas platforms in the area -- which is just insane.
Next to that, you can see the sea turtle nests in the area.
What climate change is.
Because there are so many doomsayer stories
we wanted to show some positives
to show what they are going to mitigate
This is one from Arnold
\"The tour we are about to take - things we can do to overcome those challenges -
average temp rose 2 degrees - if GHG not reduced - can rise another 7 degrees.\"
All created in Google Earth with narrated tour free version.
Pop in MP3.
Relatively simple thing to create. Anybody can create one.
Q: Way to measure to the amount of solar wattage?
Say Vegas vs San Francisco?
Most of what we would do is work with someone who does that.
Brad: You could do it yourself. Not that difficult.
Google Earth engine - with such a rich database - if we could run spectrosignature analysis. Could be a really powerful tool for the world.
Search for Google Earth engine.
Brad: My favorite - Darfur.
Really amazing translation project. Arabic.
Franz Josef Och
[begins talk in German]
- Statistical Machine Translation: Challenges and Opportunities
Always hard to follow Earth and maps.
In order to access all the world's information then the language barrier is a significant barrier.
English- only 50%.
If only Arabic -only 1%
Other languages, even smaller percentage.
Have had for ~10 years.
Early on at Google - rule based. 3rd party.
French / Spanish / Italian.
No Arabic. Just to/from English.
Quality not so good.
Can we change that?
Many more languages.
Build upon the strength of Google - large data / computational resources
Started research project - very large resources used on small amounts of text
Became this product
Replaced old system.
Compare: Human or Machine Translation?
Quite hard to tell which is which. Both have small mistakes.
Italian is a place where translation works better.
Hindi to English - problematic.
Baseline is not perfect. Humans make mistakes too.
I would have grammar mistakes in German to English.
Q: Comparing to poor translation ...
25 cents per word.
- Improvements in recent years
Statistical approach / learning
More sophisticated translastion models
more training data
more research groups, increased interest
Tries to mimc what humans do. Can learn a lot without our having to teach it.
More sophisticated models did not rely on word-by-word as much.
Harder to find translated training data before.
Web and many translations out there - millions/billions of words and growing.
More data in, the better.
Much larger models - the ones we are using now are 100s of GB.
Used to need to run on 50MB machine.
Order of magnitude more.
Q: Does too much data hurt performance?
What is a well formed sentence.
For parallel - when we double - constant improvement, but less and less
For language - always a constant improvement when you double.
Q: Read this in English - you might be teaching it to be stupid. Examples could be worse than system.
New challenge we face is that translations we have came from our own system.
Need to avoid training on our own old texts.
Poor quality translation - so long as it doesn't have systematic mistakes - random errors get smoothed out.
Q: Is system able to detect more fidelity?
As your system gets better - but when you are better than others?
We are not there yet.
Q: How do you improve the web's information to improve the quality?
Is that the only source?
On the web, there are different - pages, sites that show translations. Frequent for Chinese (English terms in brackets).
Useful training data - new terms.
Twitter to Chinese.
Q: Constantly screen web for new?
Last point - lot of interest now in machine translation.
Darmouth conference famous -
turned out to be not true.
Good to be cautious.
In 1956, probably now we have achieved that.
- Phrase learning
- More parallel data is better
Test data BLEU - rough guideline - at 0.2 translation starts to become useful
Q: Subjective score?
One reason MT had revolution - automatic evaluation metrics.
Hard to make progress. Very expensive.
Metric used here is compare MT output with profressional translation.
Q: Still human in the loop.
Basically, once data is annotated, we can use it a million times to score.
Say you forget \"NOT\" in a sentence, very different match.
Now we have this very reliable metric.
Produce a translation,
a minute later we can tell if it is good or not.
Brad: Why is Portuguese so good ... German/English not?
German is a very challenging language - verb at end.
People who learn German - have to remember to put verb on the stack, then pop it at the end.
Sentence structure is more complex.
English sentences simpler.
All the Roman empire.
Q: Why Finnish hard?
Rich morphology. Next slide interesting.
Chinese - no morphology - makes it hard.
Fininish - all kinds of stuff met by one word.
Q: 1 would be exactly get human translation.
Human alternative would get 0.5 / 0.6.
Q: At what level is it \"human like\"?
This metric is not a judge of best translation.
Certain style issues not measured.
Metric - the more we make advances, the more we need to throw that metric away.
Humans 50-60% here.
Q: Attempting to translate metaphorical language? \"Let's book it\"
Make a literaly translation.
May make literally. But user comments - when users see we got meaning of \"rains cats and dogs\" right, people are amazed.
We try to look at everything in that sentence.
Next step is to try to take prior sentence into account.
Q: Real time?
Speech recognition makes real progress too. Combined, quality really drops.
We have Google translate android app - very exciting to move to speech recognition side
In Google Goggles - take picture of sign and have it translated.
lot of improvement.
Hope is if you combine those technologies - don't understand? Just put phone there.
Q: Conherence? In English, if not sure. Put in search engine.
Do you use this kind of checking?
Find where sentence has been written before.
When people use our system - ideally we'd capture edit.
Very useful information for us.
Google Translator toolkit - when you use that to translate -
pre-fills translation with MT. Just edit mistakes, gives improvements.
Feedback loops are extremely important.
If you have speech recognition in cloud - and then you click - that would be a good training element.
Next time this specific dialect - recognized much better.
Something we are working on.
1M 10M 100M words. Probably slows down a little bit.
For some languages, morphology relates to number of words.
1B words - even better.
Q: How can you reference one word's multiple meanings?
What we do when we train - infer
Source / translation - which word to which word or phrase to phrase.
Create statistics for relationships.
Look to context.
- Trend - more languages
Biggest language so far not in there is Bengali.
Don't have Latin either.
Integration into Chrome and toolbar.
Q: Translators? Erase their job.
So far, professionals - this can help them.
MT standard for technical.
Hard to predict how soon we will have very high quality.
Will be harder and harder.
Q: What are units?
What you get from Google trends.
Porportional to overall integral.
Want to improve quality, number of languages.
Other is integration. Make available where needed.
Cross language search.
Bar allows you to select other languages. It selects for you.
You can surf the Arabic web in English.
Q: Type text - send in another language.
Google chat - translation bot invited into chat.
Third man in there, anything you see in there - could be N-way chat.
Search for Google translate chatbot.
Chris: Propose lunch then holodeck.
On bus to Tesla
Two operations centers
Production in Menlo Park
HQ in Palo Alto
Test driving place - we can arrange that.
10:45 Jose stops talking [you had to be there to understand]
12:19 back on bus
Lunch in 583C
Open Science Summit
Jose - final presentation at 5pm
Black Gold - about coffee. Sushi and pizza
Dir of Millen Project, Jerome Glen
State of the Future
Presenting Monday morning - 2020 advising gov't of Kuwait
First trillion dollar company was PetroChiina
1 - 1/2 hours in room A.
Note: Today is a plenary except for students who submitted approved proposals for Independent Study. (Please submit a half page proposal to Dan Barry (email@example.com) prior to this session.)
Paul Saffo to gsp10students
As part of their plenary workshop next tuesday, my friends at Global Business Netowork have asked if everyone could complete the following survey. It should take only a few minutes, and I guarantee that you will find the questions thought-provoking!
Link is here ( http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/SingularityU )
YOUR DEADLINE IS MIDNIGHT, SUNDAY, JULY 25.
At the bottom of the page is the text of the 56(!) question survey..
9:15 Paul Saffo:
We are really lucky today.
Leading this is Brianne?
Senior Evangelist at GBN
Canadian National Champion Go Player
Brie: A very fast, quick and dirty trip through scenarios.
Founders came from there. Took it in a number of new directions.
Have worked with governments, ... non-profits.
- What are scenarios?
They are stories about the future.
Telling them drives better decisions.
They are data driven, but really stories.
They are not predictions - they are hypotheses.
When you can hold multiple hypotheses in your head, it helps you adapt to change over time.
If things start happening in years 1 and 2, you can see what those changes are pointing toward.
- Scenarios help us resist the urge to oversimplifly
Help us pull apart the most uncertain things
For those who did the survey on-line, rate both importance and uncertainty.
So this idea leads to this maxim:
It is better to be imprecisely right than precisely wrong.
Sometimes people in role of making precise predictions are threatened by this orientation.
- \"There is no reason for any individual ...
- \"Internal sales forecast for PCs for the 1980s: 295,000. Actual 25 million.\" - IBM
- sort complex information
Observed -> categories
Use outside in thinking
Tendency to think of the things we see every day.
Start with really big picture / context -
Things beyond our control
Things we will have to react to.
Synthesize Diverse Perspectives
Can be very complicated.
Frequently you get requests for \"industry experts\"
Non-profits ask for friendlies.
So, we might bring in people with government perspective
Take the Long View
Sometimes 20-25 years.
2/3 years - project from today
Just some deviation
10 yrs - things can be really different.
Walk that back to 7 / 5
Start at 10.
We think of context having 5 categories
You've got uncertainty cards with dots from each of these categories.
- Social changes -
People eat more meat moving into the middle class - except maybe in India.
China consumes half as much meat per capita as the US, but more than twice the total.
If middle class incomes go up, will see surge in meat demand, and hence water.
Jamie Oliver Food Revolution
Safeway Organic Food
Mainstream changes in what people eat.
Social trend we are watching.
Looking at the way
CSA - Community Supported Agriculture
1990 60 farms
Many other farms do part of there distribution this way.
New people in agriculture.
New influx of people.
T in STEEP.
When in grad school - Monsanto released first crops.
People have missed what has happened in the breeding world.
We can take advantage of genomics - completely getting around the genetically modified debate.
If you didn't have to replant seed every year, you could dramatically increase productivity.
Craig Venter - collect bacteria. We have no idea what bacteria are capable of.
They have genes that are very easy to move into other organisms.
Could resist salt, drought.
Imagine what would happen if you didn't have to use so much water.
Could hold interesting genomic
ST, now Economics.
See price volatility in food going up.
Nothing suggesting it will stop any time soon.
Can we stay on the same Y-scale for this graph?
JG: Or volatility could go away ...
- No easy explanation: the mystery of colony collapse disorder
Major honeybee losses
1/3 of US agriculture depends on bee pollination
Major losses in fruits and nuts
Some things in monoculture we still don't control.
Steve: 2009? 2010?
People have come up with ways. Bee-mune - supposed to make your bees immune.
Eric: This happened massively in Europe as well. They found it was an additive on corn seeds. Taking that away solved it.
This is great - the mystery - in some places you can change that, elsewhere you change something else.
There are environmental uncertainties out there.
Africa is becoming a hotbed of activity for multinational growing operations.
Investments around Africa. Corn, rice, vegetables, flowers.
We want to lease a bunch of hectares.
Lots in Ethiopia.
Top ministers saying, \"We are making our bets on agriculture.\"
Could go well.
We've seen some failures already.
Land taken from people already using it.
Can paint a really brilliant future - economic development barriers fundamentally change -- or not.
Hurting salmon, frogs.
Kids in school
People responding to have DDT.
New agreement called REACH - requires safety testing for more than 30,000 chemicals.
Burden of proof was on you to show it wasn't UNsafe.
Now it is on you, the manufacturers, to run tests to show safety.
Hard to estimate savings.
companies around the world, if they want to do business with the EU
Uncertainties we are tracking.
- fast forward
Play with, live in the uncertainties.
Expand the way thinking about the future.
We start every process with the focal question:
\"What will the US food system look like in 2020?\"
There are a lot of global uncertainties here.
On your tables:
Same info on handouts -
Here are some additional docs for futures studies and the power point as a pdf...
8 attachments \u2014 Download all attachments
Outlook Report No. (GFA-21) 64 pp, July 2010 http://www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/GFA21/
Indicators of food security point to improvement between 2009 and 2010 for the 70 countries
covered in this report. The number of food-insecure people is estimated to decrease from about
953 million in 2009 to 882 million in 2010. Food-insecure people are defined as those consuming less than the nutritional target of 2,100 calories per day per person.
Any increase or decrease highlights the fact that consumption for large portions of the populations in lower income countries is clustered around the nutritional target. This implies that even a brief economic slowdown or food production shock can result in millions of additional people being subjected to food insecurity. Conversely, a slight improvement in economic conditions can propel people past the nutritional target.
What Is the Issue?
The 2010 results are based on the economic recovery assumptions by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which is cautiously optimistic, but admits that there is a downside risk of an economic retreat. Among key factors influencing economic assumptions is the unknown issue of capital flows. According to the IMF, capital inflows will remain volatile because the current global economic rebound is mainly driven by major fiscal stimulus in support of credit markets, the impacts of which could be eroded before the end of 2010. In Food Security Assessment, 2010- 20, ERS researchers estimate and project the number of food-insecure people regionally and in each of the 70 developing countries for 2010-2020.
What Did the Study Find?
Food security in 70 developing countries is estimated to have improved between 2009 and 2010,
due in part to economic recovery in many of these countries. The number of food-insecure people in the developing countries analyzed by ERS researchers is estimated to decrease 7.5 percent from 2009 to 882 million in 2010. The number of food-insecure people at the aggregate level will not improve much over the next decade, declining by 1 percent from 2010 to 2020. While there will be notable improvements in Asia and Latin America, the situation in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is projected to deteriorate after 2010.
Despite the unfavorable long-term projections, SSA\u2019s food security situation improved between
2009 and 2010 following stronger economic growth and a continuation of the recent upward trend in food production. The number of food-insecure people in the region is estimated at 390 million in 2010, a near 12-percent decline from 2009. The distribution gap\u2014the amount of food needed to raise consumption in each income group to meet the nutritional target of 2,100 calories per person per day\u2014also declined, albeit negligibly. Despite the improvement, nearly half of the region\u2019s population remains foodinsecure. In addition, while accounting for only one-quarter of the population of the 70 countries included in this study, the region is estimated to account for 44 percent of the food-insecure people.
As the global economy slowly recovers from the worldwide recession, Asia will continue to make impressive gains in improving food security as the projected number of food-insecure people is projected to decline from 433 million in 2010 to 320 million in 2020. In absolute terms, the number of food insecure in Asia is large; however, in relative terms Asia is doing better than SSA. In 2010, Asia will account for nearly 64 percent of the population of the 70 developing
countries included in this report, but will account for barely half of the estimated 882 million total food-insecure people.
By 2020, the number of food-insecure people in SSA is projected to exceed 500 million out of a total population of roughly 1 billion. In other words, without any significant increase in investment or change in historical trends of major indicators, more than half of the region\u2019s population will consume less than the nutritional target. The region\u2019s food security position
will also deteriorate relative to the other regions included in this report. In 2020, the region will account for only 27 percent of the population of the 70 countries, but it will have about a 59-percent share of the total number of food-insecure people.
The long-term projections are made assuming continuation of current trends in several key factors affecting long-term food security\u2014agricultural production, income, foreign exchange availability, and population growth. The question is how changes in these variables would affect the results. To do this, ERS developed two scenarios. The first scenario doubles capital inflows by 2020 to examine the impacts of improved food import capacity in all study countries. The
food security baseline projections assume a constant capital inflow during the projection period.
The second scenario analyzes the effect of targeting the most vulnerable countries with the goal of improving their food production performance. The scenario stems from concerns raised in different forums among governments and donors that without significant improvements in production, vulnerability to shocks such as the global food price crisis of 2008 could continue. To examine the impact on food security of increased agricultural production in low-income countries, the second scenario couples the increase in capital flows from the first scenario with a 50-percent increase in projected grain yields in 2020. The countries selected for this scenario are the 37 in the SSA region and 4 in Central America and the Caribbean. (Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Haiti were selected because they have the highest share of rural population relative to other countries in the region.)
In the first scenario, when capital inflows of the 70 countries are doubled in 2020, the number of food-insecure people is projected to decline 11 percent relative to the 2020 food security baseline projections. Scenario results indicate improvement in all regions. In Asia, the number of food-insecure people declines by 14 percent, in Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) by 31 percent, and in SSA by 8 percent. As expected, the regions that benefit under this scenario are those that are highly import-dependent (LAC) and those where external capital inflows (private and foreign assistance) are high relative to their export earnings (Asia).
The results under the second scenario show a significant improvement in food security in SSA. The number of foodinsecure people falls by 67 percent (from 513 million in 2020 in the food security baseline to 168 million in this scenario). In the selected LAC countries, the number of food-insecure people falls to less than 10 percent in all countries except for Haiti.
How Was the Study Conducted?
All historical and projected data are updated relative to the Food Security Assessment, 2008-09 report. Food production estimates for 2009 are based on data from the United Nations\u2019 Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) as of February 2010. Historical production data are from FAO and food aid data are from the World Food Programme (WFP). Financial and macroeconomic data are based on the latest World Bank data, as of February 2010. Projected macroeconomic
variables either are based on ERS-calculated growth rates for the 1990s through the late 2000s or are IMF and World Bank projections. Projections of food availability include food aid, with the assumption that each country will receive the 2006-08 average level of food aid throughout the next decade.
For more information, contact: Shahla Shapouri, Stacey Rosen, May Peters, Felix Baquedano, and Summer Allen
10:48 Next scenario - pick 2 cards you have not used yet. Specify the end points and pass them to the next table.
Goal is first to stretch -
Find robust scenarios
Use those to structure strategy
We are in a total anarchic process at this point.
That is fine.
Corporates like more process.
I want to show you one quick slide.
When looking across the set:
1/ is each plausible - not the highest probability - that's the official
Others meet low bar
2/ They do need to be relevant
3/ They need to be challenging
4/ Divergent from each other.
This group - really liked one answer. Telling 3 technology stories.
Get some diversity and outcomes.
How did we get to these uncertainties.
You had some strangely skewed.
Technology uncertainties - through the roof.
Uncertainty ratings were incredibly low.
We made some adjustments for you guys.
You all believe great things about technology. Which is great.
You did not rate the social uncertainties as impactful.
We included some, despite survey data.
In last scenario - stretch plausibility, have fun. This is free form.
Choose three you have not used yet.
Get some experience with the whole range of uncertainty.
Take 10 minutes. Then report outs.
Monsanto Dream/Global Nightmare
The New Pill - satiates you and gives you nutrients. All done in labs, not on farms.
First thing to note: technological advances was in the initial list - you added it back, that's great.
Would challenge you to make the story plausible.
A little too easy to say, \"you could make it\" but what about the social patterns of eating.
Monsingularity - mass discontinuity
As severity of climate change increases, wars over water. Spread of disease.
Alternatives to farmed meat.
Unexpected future: Home Automation of Food Production
climate change and increase in technology - off the grid
LOCK STEP \u2013 A world of tighter top-down government control and more authoritarian leadership, with limited innovation and growing citizen pushback
CLEVER TOGETHER \u2013 A world in which highly coordinated and successful strategies emerge for addressing both urgent and entrenched worldwide issues
HACK ATTACK \u2013 An economically unstable and shock-prone world in which governments weaken, criminals thrive, and dangerous innovations emerge
SMART SCRAMBLE \u2013 An economically depressed world in which individuals and communities develop localized, makeshift solutions to a growing set of problems
CISCO project coming on evolution of the internet, 3rd week of August.
We always develop scenarios WITH our clients, not for them.
We try to help push them into conversations about normative futures.
In Pharma, we said, \"Which of these futures is best for your company?\"
Then we asked, \"Which of these futures do you want to live in with your family?\"
There was real hesitation.
Big difference between market makers and market takers.
Bring in \"remarkable people\" who are provocateurs
We have a pretty good idea what are the taboos
Sometimes we get into a room that is very anti-corporate.
Challenge is to get the conversation onto partnerships rather than [dragon slaying]
How did you feel?
Chiara: Process was helpful, interesting.
Luca: Helpful so long as you are proficient.
Yes, it is hard to jump in. Good to have pre-session reading. Multiple perspectives.
This isn't rocket science what we did today.
This kind of exercise you can do in a conversation, with teams.
We have a publication \"What If\" written for non-profits.
Very simple exercises.
Thank you to you guys as well.
A consortium interested in dairy.
You'll see a little report of today in the GBN bulletin.
Please remember that we are not asking you to answer these questions, but rather to rate each issue's importance and uncertainty.
Please rate the importance of each issue to the future of the US food system on a scale of 1 to 7, with 1 being \"of minimal or no importance\" and 7 being \"of critical importance.\" Please also rate the uncertainty of the outcome of each issue, with 1 being \"highly certain\" and 7 being \"highly uncertain.\"
Importance 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Uncertainty 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1. Will the changing demands of consumers in emerging markets (e.g., China, India, Brazil, etc.) be met primarily by multinational or domestic food enterprises?
2. Will global attitudes increasingly favor or reject genetically engineered foods?
3. Will US consumers purchase food in familiar ways, from established players, or seek out new vendors,venues and forms of interaction?
4. Will concern about the safety and environmental impacts of food production dramatically change consumer food choices?
5. Will health consciousness have a significantly greater impact on food choices by US consumers?
6. Will different attitudes among youths and young adults towards food, agriculture and the environment have a significant impact on the food system?
7. Will mainstream US consumer attitudes shift more towards hyperconsumption or frugality?
8. Will consumer demand for organic or sustainably produced food rise and fall with the economy, continuing the consumption patterns seen today, or will we experience a step change in demand?
9. Will farming and/or food production become a significantly more or less attractive career path for US adults?
10. Will trust in large agriculture and food companies erode or increase significantly?
11. Will there be significant technological breakthroughs in food processing, packaging or transport?
12. Will there be major breakthroughs in energy production, storage or transport?
13. Will there be major breakthroughs in new kinds of livestock feed or husbandry methods?
14. Will there be major breakthroughs in agricultural waste management?
15. Will new agricultural technologies developed by universities and companies be appropriate and affordable for small farmers?
16. Will there be major breakthroughs in technologies associated with organic and/or biodynamic farming?
17. Will geoengineering and/or geospatial information systems become an effective tool for the food and ag industry?
18. Will there be breakthrough insights produced by medical research on the links between food, agricultural practices and health?
19. Will there emerge widely accepted artificial substitutes for meat?
20. Will we develop pharmaceuticals or other technological means to alter appetite, satiety, and the enjoyment of food?
21. Will innovation in food and agriculture be largely open source or IP protected?
22. Will the established Big Food and Ag players become major drivers of innovation in sustainable agriculture and food production?
23. Will breakthroughs in task automation and smart robotic systems have a major impact on food and agriculture?
24. Globally, will biofuel increase in importance relative to other sources of renewable energy?
25. Will weather and climate change cause major disruptions in US and/or international agriculture?
26. Will emerging crop diseases be controllable locally or cause major disruptions worldwide?
27. Will emerging livestock diseases and/or zoonotic diseases (diseases that are capable of being transferred between humans and animals) be controllable locally or cause major disruptions worldwide?
28. Will water availability (in urban and/or agricultural areas) become a significant locus of conflict and concern in large regions of the US?
29. Will water scarcity drive significant changes in water consumption practices in personal, agricultural, and industrial uses?
30. Will agricultural chemicals and pollution from livestock operations become a major source of environmental concern and action?
31. Will urban agriculture become an effective means of feeding urban populations and/or improving urban communities?
32. Will carbon control and/or trading regimes become widely established?
33. Will more or fewer people produce a portion of their foods in/around their homes?
34. Will international agricultural input and food prices be relatively stable or exhibit extreme volatility?
35. Will the true cost of food \u2013 including currently externalized costs \u2013 be recognized and reflected in pricing?
36. Will the balance of global economic power shift significantly from today?
37. Will globalization proceed at a faster or slower pace than in the last decade?
38. Will the US economy be significantly stronger or weaker than it is today?
39. In the US, will water and land rights be primarily reserved for multinational companies or small/local/family producers?
40. Will there be a proliferation of new business models that effectively challenge the established players in Big Food and Ag?
41. Will governments in developing countries move towards nationalization or privatization of water, land, and other agricultural resources?
42. To what extent will low- and middle-income US consumers be willing to spend larger portions of their incomes on high quality food?
43. Will African agricultural productivity increase dramatically in the next 10 years?
44. Will local economies grow or shrink in relation to much larger scale national and international enterprises?
45. Will consolidation in the agricultural and food industries increase or decrease?
46. Will diverse regional and national regulations about food trump or be trumped by international regulatory regimes (e.g., WTO, NAFTA)?
47. Will international agricultural trade become more liberalized or closed?
48. Will food security become more or less or a priority to national governments?
49. Will most nations approach food security by growing more food domestically, or by establishing favored trading relationships?
50. Will the current system of agricultural subsidies in the US change significantly from today?
51. Will US government regulations around the health and safety of food become significantly stricter or more relaxed?
52. Will US government regulations around agricultural resource use, pollution, and pricing become significantly stricter or more relaxed?
53. Will US orientation towards biofuels remain focused on corn or shift to feed stocks derived from agricultural waste or nonfood crop plants?
54. Will immigration reform (or lack thereof) have a significant impact on the production and consumption of food in the US?
55. Will government problem solving (at local, state and federal levels) be more fragmented or more cohesive?
56. Will state and local governments gain or lose power relative to the US federal government on issues connected to food and agriculture?
57. Are there any additional issues that should have been included in this survey?
- Living in the Future: A User's Guide
Peter Bishop / Univ of Houston
Univ of HI
distance learning and practitioner oriented.
Many students execs already
teaching since 1982.
Thinking a lot about pedagogy
Offer futures thinking Houston-styel
Tour of US Military
Great to be at SU. You guys are real famous.
I started in 1982. Paul is a founder of the field.
Regent U in Virgnia Beah.
Half a dozen to a dozen programs around the world
Compared to what we study in the past - 100,000s of history.
Need to teach as much about the future as about the past.
Share with folks like you how we approach the future.
I can blow through it.
Most of the people we talk to are in the present.
This univ is devoted to some very long term futures.
Do some of the work you are involved in here.
All the time talking about future, talking about your projects.
Key in numbers.
Put in rank - relative to rest of class.
21 people here.
Smallest will be the closest.
First - how far you came.
No, first, alpha by first name.
JG: We have a system listing us by first name.
How far away.
Second when you found out.
Third, science backgrounds.
small numbers in hard science. High numbers in social science
Who is closest?
Paul - nearby
David - 30 miles
sasha: 13 also from Toronto
Santiago: 19 - Argentina
Who found out just before deadline?
eric - applied AFTER the deadline.
Dhuval: learned at last year's program.
Luca: Feb '09 - press release
Steve: 17 Last June.
Science: Who put 1?
Nolene: Astrophysics 1
Erez: 1 bioinformatics
Who is most social?
David A: philosophy
Andrew: \"I'm the real 21\" Econ/Phil/Poly Sci
Eric: Econ/bus/education/engineering/future Studies/socielogy/backcasting/environment - put 15
Peter: Phil with minor in math.
Point of all this - the process of knowing about the future
is exactly the process you used here.
To know things we cannot directly observe.
You have things you know,
but you had to make assumptions.
They are not bad, they are just necessary.
Exactly the same process as history -
lots of good data, but assume it is dated correctly, is the truth,
things found are actually used.
We also have data in future studies
We don't discount that data. In order to use it, you have to make assumptions.
Assumptions are weaker than from other disciplines.
Science - never actually seen electron.
Use instruments which has assumptions built in.
We should not feel bad about assumptions.
Assume plans, goals and hopes will be realized.
Alternative is also plausible.
Not just what we think is going to happen, but what might happen instead.
World Business Network.
Make assumptions, no way of getting out of that.
Not a solution.
With that intro, let me give you this:
\"All of us .. could never happen\" - July 20, 2010
testimony about oil spill in gulf
- Surprises of the Decade
Failure of imagination?
Imagination is not respected as source of information.
Glad it is here. Not in most places - schools.
That is \"creative writing\"
Scientists use their imagination all the time.
We think of the scientific paper as being organized.
Reality is a mess. That other is window dressing.
The case of the brilliance of a company that suceeds - generally mass confusion.
What is surprise? When expectations don't match reality.
We are going to have another decade 2010-2010 with more things happening.
Modify our expectation to include more possiblities than most people contemplate.
Heard Peter [D's] talk.
Before he was famous.
Always thinking about amazing things.
Erez: Continuously exposed to predictions. Hard to choose the right one.
All the things on this slide, someone said.
Problem of expectation. The trick is not to have to choose.
We leave them all on the table.
Some are big surprises.
A lot have precursors.
If you don't believe it is possible, some things become more possible, less possible.
Can it happen? Maybe/maybe not.
Expectation is not so narrow.
Sasha: To what degree are there connections -
Google -> iPhone
Do you think any of these had no precursors?
Biggest surprise of all.
Paul: I was saying in 1987 Y2K would not be an issue.
Was there an issue with that.
Forecast was - don't worry about the computer. Worry about the wacko down the street.
In the computer
Peculiar responses - from failed forecasts.
Has cleared up
Peter: You know, better than I do, the run up to the tech growth was money going into
redesign of computer systems for Y2K.
Paul: Anything with no precursors?
Peter: Any uncaused effect?
Europeans arriving in New World.
Paul: Native Americans had some idea.
Peter: Was it observable? Could they have seen it coming?
No precursor to that.
JG: Unintended consequences.
Certainly surprise us.
Steve: Art of this is connecting the dots.
Difficult to help see what no one else sees.
Only stick with those things that are probable. Not possible.
If you can change to include multiple possibilities, you are better off.
Santiago: Economy is unpredictable.
I would argue there are inherently unpredictable events.
1/ Chaos theory. Deterministic but unpredictable after the first few events.
Is market a chaotic system? Could well be.
Thinking about what were the precusors of collapse.
Santiago: But some people also said no collapse.
Before the fact our attitude should be \"everyone is potentially right\"
We have theory - as well as we can in physical science - predict what will happen
in the future. Someday ...
I don't believe that.
2/ Complex adaptive system. Can create novelty.
Something fundamentally new.
A logic system.
3/ Critical systems. A system on the verge of collapse.
Stock market way over valued.
Nuclear on verge of going critical.
We will never be able to predict exactly.
Rene Thom? [
Bok = How nature works [ref]
Sand pile. Add sand one grain at a time. Natural angle. If you add grains slowly,
you will get at higher angle.
Super saturated solution - one more grain of salt - it precipitates.
Most mathematicians don't believe.
Don't choose. Use whole new plausible alternative SET approach.
You now know future studies.
Erez: Describe psycho history - Asimov. Take large number of people.
You can predict until people are in unstable state.
Can you say what day the housing market began to go down.
We have more predictability of mass movements.
Take Iran. 100,000s of people in the street.
Could have been regime put lid on it.
Tiananmen Square - repressed.
There are alternative scenarios.
Eric: How to put scenarios with guessing together with intentions - drivers that come
from individuals or groups.
Let's do something to create what we want.
That leads to first slide here.
- Sources of change
Expectations - create change ourselves.
Our future is always a combination of what the world will do and what we will do.
We are not masters of our own fate either.
Sphere of influence.
Effecting lives of a billion - high aspirations of what you can do.
Still must take world into account -
Like a dance, a duet, always dancing with the world.
How it is going to react to us.
Steve: Black Swan.
That book is a restatement of very low probability, high impact events.
Things out there will happen.
We cannot eliminate surprise. Our expectations will be different, but we can mitigate it by
broadening our expectations.
Ensemble of scenarios.
Most of what will happen is part of that.
Black Swans may not be part of our expectations.
Down side - so many. We cannot prepare for all the potential futures.
that is an impossibility.
Handle more - be more ready.
Sasha: Predictions are just an exercise.
JG: Bela Nagy http://su-etherpad.com/Jul20-Bela-Nagy
Peter: Heard his presentation last September.
Sasha: Prepare for unexpected.
Peter: Getting it right is not the objective.
Being prepared is the objective.
Getting the thrust of the space station and the space shuttle right in order for them to dock, is critical.
Never forget the world.
Can we predict the world - no.
Can we influence the world - yes.
- Inbound Change.
People you hear are experts. Tremendous information.
The STEEP environment -
I add Cultural / Deographic to Social
- Outbound Change II
Most people don't have that opportunity as SU.
Your aspirations are beyond that.
Change the STEEP environment.
- Horizons of Change
Strategic - your horizon
Most people are short term.
- Rates of Change
Most of use are used to continuous.
It is the discountinuous we are not prepared for.
Don't include them in our expectations.
Past Disruptions (In bound)
- Other disruptions
1970s Divorce rates went off the page.
US Budget 1992-2009
S - Curve - picture of a disruptive event.
This is not your atmosphere, but where most people are.
1 - no problem
2 - what is going on
3 - whew!
Different chart than what Ray K has.(disagreement)
Even information technology - application will level off.
in 20-30 years we will have wired everything
Won't be much more to that.
Things could start something new.
Electronics -silicon based - have a limit.
Sasha: His point is a series of S curves.
- Punctuated Equilibrium
My point as well
Whole curve - the envelop.
Sasha: So can't you then call anything a catalyst. Wiring cars becomes part of internet ... etc.
My understanding - episodic change.
Lead technology - one before fibre was petroleum.
Coal -> electricity ->
Jaw dropping productivity
100 years ago, you could not drive.
Sending an e-mail - wow.
There is an aura? around a particular technology
you have to use it.
Quantum computing - unbelievable.
Biotech - wow, how can you use that.
Andrew: 50-60 years presently.
Agriculture rev lasted longer than 50 years.
My take - coal to steam ... episodes in agricultural revolution, I haven't studied.
Communication is unbelievably quick.
Social. Custom and culture. Until people get it in their heads.
Web 1.0 is very productive.
Unless ready to push stuff out into cloud - that change is even slower.
Social changes take longer.
Not as quick as technologists may think.
- Successive Eras.
Reason each era doesn't continue - you can't get much more out of that.
Inherent capacity for performance.
Old era / new era.
Transition is never easy.
Degradation of performance - undo things.
Values, practices, ideals - lots of those things have to go away.
Andrew: Is there a drop? or will the new era be beginning - performance does not happen at plateau, but earlier.
Yeah, I guess you could say.
Is there a case where there has been ....
There is a learning curve.
It takes awhile to get good.
A natural degradation.
Paul: Flat spot - we tend to pave the cow paths.
New technology used for old things.
Make transitor connectors look like vacuum tubes.
Andrew: Still vacuum tube enhancements after transistor.
Paul: Dotted lines.
Have given up looking for \"first thing\"
Peter: New thing.
JG: Bela Nagy - Devendra Sahal came up with approach \"first\"
Paul: Read Joseph Schumpeter :)
Second Moore's law - cost of a fab.
Peter: Infrastructure, social resistance, political realities
Things have to go away in order to exploit new technology.
Eric: Not only interest. People in culture are last ones to see what is happening.
Talk about music industry. Steve Jobs figured it out. iTunes.
Eric: How to accelerate raise of consciousness.
Not fish who discovered the water.
Everett Rodgers - new pharma.
Diffusion of innovation
Half dozen characteristics - what makes it easier to adopt.
Paul: Innovation in biological world - is mutation. Only under stress.
If trying to do it at society level - create a crisis or start a religion.
JG: Michael Chen - going viral.
Under what conditions. How many people are thinking of new ideas that don't go viral.
How do you do it?
Sasha: Getting the ability to go viral.
So - increased rate of volatility - to what extent are we concentrating energy in the wrong place.
We as humans are a lot more predictable.
Do we focus too much on environment - not enough on individuals.
Say, shit is going to happen, how do we deal with it?
Peter: Strength, growth prosperity.
Whole other area of social, political - will influence, not change on a dime.
I'm a sociologist generally.
It's your judgement. Have to be looking at technology.
Westerners believe technology makes its own path.
We have expectations - nukes were going to be the energy source in 1960s.
But then ...
Emem: Can't stop an idea whose time has come?
How do we know when the time is?
Peter: That is an impossible question to answer.
Plausible futures. Not possible futures.
Broaden to include more ideas which do become valuable and important.
Don't make it too narrow - leave out things which will matter.
David A: Leadership formation. Capacity to respond.