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Q: Take 5% of company?
Yes. Slightly higher valuation. Follow on of $450K was at a higher price.
Q: What does that mean?
Higher valuation?
Q: $1 m to something else?
$1.5 m. Rationale for that is. $1 m premoney, with $350K, should be worth $1.35 m
Q: So additional equity?
By end of transaction, 50% held by outside investors. 50% held by founders.
Q: What is desirable state?
You target 20% stake for initial investment. Want to avoid getting too diluted later on.
Q: Why?
Driven by the math. You are anticipating later rounds of investment. Later investors will also take a piece of the company. Don't want to take so much that others can't enter. Don't want to take too little, since 5% is just a small piece.
Q:
Each round effects everybody else.
Q: Usually cash injection - in order not to be diluted, they have right to participate.
Yeah. So with conversion notes, you get a set percent of series A round, at a discount.
For dilution in general, a number of situations:

1/ option pools. Very important. Basically given to later employees to incentivize them to get a piece of the action.
Q: You
Create options out of thin air.

Polite to do dilution before next round.

Create 20% pool before next offering round.

In addition to that is

2/ anti-dilution clauses given to outside investors to prevent against the following situation.

$2 m invested. Another investor comes in with $500,000 when company is doing much less. You get super crammed down:

If down round, weighted average to reset price paid for it. Paid $10. Now it is $5. Change it to $7.5

OR full ratchet. Now at $5. So I get it at $5. Twice as many shares. Bad thing. Would scare off later investors. Later investor gets diluted because you get more shares.
Q: For SU option - 1% non-dilutive to SU. As VC, which would you prefer.
Depends on company. Situation.

doing startup = realistically believe could be $20 m company.

Probably not raise more than $1 m of outside capital.

If you invest more, not enough potential upside for outside investor.

Done in 2 rounds.

Friends and family kick in $100K.

Second round for $900K.

Would want to have a non-dilutive 1%.

Value entity at $400K - 20% dilution with that.

5% ownership stake becomes a 4%, once it has been diluted.

Do $900K at $3 m pre. Let's just say another 25% dilution of that 4% - becomes 3%.

So you can give 3% versus 1%.

Quick swag calculation.

Unless you have a company you could realistically sell for $100 m bucks.

That's how I'd think of it.
Q: Depends on valuation at the time you give the 5% away.
Haven't seen the true documentation of the 1% and the 5%.
Q: No one has.

Q: It may not exist.
More?

Q: The story.
So, quick story: they get Marvel to distribute. Before just had indies.

Close to 2010. End of 2009. Interested in eBooks.

Real interest is in killing Diamond Distributors - doesn't have an e-Book strategy.

Now, and for next couple years, no meaningful revenue from eBooks.

Deal - any startup can license Marvel comics, just pay $150K fee.

Great. You get a free $1 m from all the startups there.

Until you have complement of digital comics, you'd have to sell $3 m in digital - which has happened now.

Official Marvel - very different reception. Good comic book app. Number of players in the space. Good to have meaningful brand names.

You feel uncomfortable relative to Marvel.

Took off like hotcakes.

Very much so.

The did $400K. Sorry $250K in first month. continued building off there.

Then DC. Into fold. More money.

Now $500K.

Closing out $1 M per month. Becoming very interesting. Trying now to raise serious VC capital.

After Apple takes piece. About 25% left over.

What is that $200K of cash coming in. They have additional expenses. Bringing in $50K a month in profit. Interesting amount. Can continue cruising as you are.

To make a new move in this space - say Android in 3 months - would take $500K.
Would like to raise $4 M at $16 M valuation.

Raises new issues.

Given their current traction, might be viable.

But what is upside?

$1 bn comic sales stateside.

Japan is locked up.

Potential market - $1 bn.

That ends up being relatively small market for $16 M price.

Become $200 M company in 5 years? Much tougher sell. Personally, I think that is BS.
General flavor of how the process works.
Interest in doing a particular thing.

Can help with those.

Define market opportunity.

Cut it.

One on one or in small groups.

Alex: Or by mail?

Sure.
Emem: When do you stop raising money?

When do you stop talking?
Talking from entrepreneur's perspective, in general you want to maximize your profit in the event of a sale. Typical exit.

Balance between dilution and value of additional money.

Investors will always give you more money, but you would end up with such a small stake, you'd get nothing.

Would be nice to raise money, but instead continue to eat Ramen, and bootstrap.
Sell now, make $3 m. Or continue riding to make $10 m. Or that could blow up and you'd lose everything.

Investors always say, keep riding it. It is profit maximizing.

It may make sense to sell at much lower price.

$3 m means a lot to me. Marginal benefit of $10 m is not worth risking everything.
I can talk endlessly about mundane details.
Quick evaluation of an idea.

Break down market opportunity.

Alex: Opposite of philosophy -
don't go to VCs at all. Totally contingent on particular market.

Most internet businesss. Bajillion entries.

Initial costs are really low.

Everything I invest in, look at 5 all doing the same thing. Pick best one.

In those circumstances, if you think you've got the right mix, try to control the entire market. Only if you have the money to clear everybody else.
Deals do not get made.

Number of companies ready to turn down VC -

FourSquare

...

about 3-4 per year.

Very few people can do that.

Nah, I don't like the terms.

Don't go in with that mindset.

VCs are all friends with each other.

I see an idea I think is kind of interesting. I will always ask all the other VCs.

What do you think?

Anything I am actually doing - I will ask.

Vast majority of investments are shared with other investors.

Rose only invests when others are on board.

Not ballsy enough to take naked investment.

Always want others to invest alongside them.

Not courageous enough in their convictions.

Also benefits to that because, eventually, say company needs 4 rounds of capital.

For exit of $200 m or more, not that uncommon.

If you are a seed stage guy, making $1 m investments.

Don't have $20 m.

social networks as well.

Pass the baton to them.
Q: Would you be able another time to walk through Getaround?
Yes, absolutely do that.

I can talk about them since I've heard their pitch.

In process of raising now/ closing.

Can't give super juicy details.

All the specifics of their deals.
I can go into hyperdetail since I am an investor in comixology. I can show you MY docs.

Not RTV docs.

http://rose.vc/

Don't share notes with everybody else.

Prepared to by hyper-frank.
11:03
Investors looking at 30x return.

company needs to grow to certain size to be worth my time.
11:15

50% of VC funds will die in this cycle.
Ron Conway.

Angel seed fund.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ron_Conway
David Rose

All his own money.

http://www.rose.vc/
Smart guys have halved their fund sizes for internet stuff.
For cleantech - still need megafunds.
Used to be first angels, then VCs. All start playing in early stage.

For seed - be very careful who you get it from.

Here's $100K. For 5% stake. They treat it as an option.

Biggest issue is when they pass on series A.

They are fluffing out small checks.

VC will only invest in one out of 10 of those things.

Can be kiss of death.

Be sceptical of certain seed stage VC funds, particularly if they don't specialize.
first round capital - in their core.

http://www.firstround.com/
Outside capital - non trivial part of money is from the VC partners.
11:23

Sorry this is not an exciting this, per se.

Never covered in talks because it is so boring.

Hours and hours of nuance for each thing.

Can have extended talks.
Alex: What kind of questions by mail?
In general, always welcome to e-mail me your pitch deck.

After end of summer, won't guarantee you'll get input.

Until end of summer, I will go into mind numbing detail with you guys.

Powerpoint of what - 15 min presentation to an investor - all important facts about company.

I can tear through that with you.

That should be your home document.

I don't read business plans - maybe only if we are truly interested in investing.

We don't look at them.
Alex: Like resumes.
Much more worth my time. Not expert on business idea.

Can do 30 second skim.
Alex: 3 minutes to say something.
For first engagement - one sentence what company is. What the heck you are doing and how far into it.

Then 3 sentences.

Then 3 min conversation.

Then 15 min pitch level.

Should cover 4 things I talked about in detail.

VC guys will do back of the head calculations and tear through stuff super fast.

Can pull a pitch deck - why good, why bad

3-5 year projections why BS for 50 different reasons.

Always say revenues will take off when you invest.

If so, you could have held out for 3 more months.

Whole art of gaming.

VC guys get really good at that. Always pass along. Pass the baton. At certain point, become entrepreneur.

I know how to massage numbers and he knows how to massage numbers.
Vincent: ITunes U.

Amazing people talking.
Jon: Over course of summer, you will get good general advice. I tried to cover the details of what you would not be told. Management rights contract.
I think my recommendation if truly serious, walk through salient points.
General definition of your market.
Q: How available are you?
About 50% of the time. Probably be here for the next few weeks.

11:32 [applause]

"

http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Aug5-Framing-and-Public-Policy

"Thurs, August 5, 9 am - 12 noon
Framing and Public Policy PLE B.20 Viente
Alaeddine Mokri

Alexandru Celac

Alison Lewis

Andrew Fursman

Connor Dickie
David Wyler

Emiliano Kargieman

Emma Brooke

Gary Gautier

Hind Ahmed

-

Juan Lopez

Julielynn Wong

Kausar Samli

Kidist Zeleke

Luca Escoffier
Maggie Jack

Sam Thorp

San Ko

Santiago Bilinkis

Sasah Grujicic

-

Sharon Niv

Tigist Ashenaffi

Valentina Margaria

Vincent Daranyi
24 Students

"

http://su-etherpad.com/workshop-Aug2-Millennium-Project

"

Mon, August 2, 9 am - 12 noon
2020 Global Energy Scenarios by The Millennium Project EES/FSF B.20 Viente

583C
Jerry Glenn

Slides: http://bit.ly/b9J5ZW

Jose Cordeiro

Slides: http://bit.ly/aOTTJu
Aaron Kemmer

Alaeddine Mokri

Alexandru Celac

x Anders Hvid

x Candice Berezan
Chiara Turelli

David Wyler

Dhaval Chadha

Dmitriy Tseliakhovich

Elizabeth Brook

-

X Emem Andrew

Erez Livneh

x Eric Ezechieli

Erika Anderson

x Eugenie Rives
x Francesco Galietti

Gary Gautier

Hind Ahmed

Jason Dunn

x John Graves

-

x Juan Martinez-Barea

Julian Ugarte

x Kausar Samli

Marko Bitenc

x Matthew Kern
Rand Hindi

San Ko

Tyler Kratz
28 Students
x = 9:07 am, 9 students

X = 9:10 am

Jose

Ken

John Chisholm

Karen Aiken, Building Bridges Strategies & Communications

karen_aiken@mac.com

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerome_C._Glenn
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futures_wheel
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Project

http://www.millennium-project.org/
The Millennium Project was founded in 1996 after a three-year feasibility study with the United Nations University, Smithsonian Institution, Futures Group International, and the American Council for the UNU. It is now an independent non-profit global participatory futures research think tank of futurists, scholars, business planners, and policy makers who work for international organizations, governments, corporations, NGOs, and universities. The Millennium Project manages a coherent and cumulative process that collects and assesses judgments from over 2,500 people since the beginning of the project selected by its 35 Nodes around the world. The work is distilled in its annual \"State of the Future\", \"Futures Research Methodology\" series, and special studies.
9:16 Jose: Good morning

Theodore Gordon

Herman Kahn

Jerry Glenn - U of Mass, just back from Korea

Korean Industrial Association

Fantastic recognition award - the CEO participants - pivotal contributions to the Korean economy

Also, Peace Corp in Africa.

Workshop - Jerry and I will talk about Global Energy for 2020.

Split into groups. Coffee break 10:45.

Will present \"State of the Future\" collective intelligence
9:19 [applause]

Raise your hands for question.

- Millennium Project

Basically and idea.

We needed a think tank on behalf of humanity.

WHO for health

World Bank for economica

Nothing for human family future.

Put together by NGOs, governments, corporations.

Should be influenced and be able to act through those organizations

- May become a TransInstitution.

Representatives for many, but not a majority of any one.

Value added goes to all, but not a majority of any one.

Need to be clever about politics,
Tech, economic - but not enough governance.
Q: I would think that religion also needs to be included.
Didn't do that, couldn't figure out how to hold it together.

Religion says, \"I'm right and everyone else is wrong.\"

I couldn't figure out how to do that.
Just died, head of Suni Islam.

Elenaor Massini.

I just couldn't figure out yet how to have religion in it without

ripping the system apart.

But thank you for the question.
- 35 Millennium Project Nodes

A node -

You get like-minded.

Intersect networks.

Each node should have people from institutional categories.

Pick who knows most about

Energy

Governance

etc.
- Global Energy Scenarios.

Business as Usual

Env Backlash

High Tech

Political Turmoil
- Seq that created the scenarios

1. Bibliography

100 page document, State of the Future

Looks like book, is a management technique.

Should be cumulative process

7,000 page document on CD-ROM

2. Delphi round 1 - data collection and ratings

Had four scenario headings. All variables down side.

What is energy consumption for business as usual.

Download it, play with it. Nice little model.

3. International futures input

4. Wrote first draft ..
- Env Backlash

In two ways:

From nature - insects changing habitats. Very serious

Desertification accelerated. Salt water levels go up.

Bangladesh - more rain, salt water coming in
People - env movement. Has been dormant.

Wakes up and gets vicious.

- Trigger. India Ocean accident - galvanizes env movement

- Env friendly politicians elected

- UN scientists set measures / standards

- env viability for life support no longer assured

- climate change conviction

cigarette precedent -

apply to energy companies - who manipulated information? Exxon

WWF and maybe Greenpeace and other, did study

What % of GHG is from Exxon - 1%?
Q: Studies are important to find something out.

Things that Greenpeace or Exxon do are not studies.
Swiss Re. They reinsure. They have the responsibility for

knowing for sure what they have to pay for in climate change.

They do some very good futures work.

Imagine taking Exxon to court. I and others have made that

aware around the world.

Exxon is now largest investor in algae around the world.

Leading investor in \"being green\"

May get a profit.
Eric: How much as a percent of total business?
$600 m

But darn good investment.

Eric: Same BP did.

BP was more general.

This is very targetted. Went to Craig Venter.

So, one thing that happens in this scenario -

all get lawsuits.
- Range of eco-terrorism, geo engineers

- more expensive energy, food, water

- climate change is slowed, but not reversed

- env migration increases

Water tables are falling around the world.

10,000 people depend on well - when it goes dry, people must move

When people move where others live - turmoil

- End of env backlash - hit value. Start of high tech ...
- Political Turmoil

Al Queda 3.0, two or three things at once

Dirty bombs in Paris, New York and shipping area all at once.

Without recovery, difficult

Env backlash PLUS political turmoil

- Caucasus pipelines down, Armenians-Azerbaijani

No more pipelines

- NW China civil war. pan-Islamic movement

- East China Sea conflicts
Q: NW China - least promising place for Islamic - find it very difficult to imagine.
Good. Homework assignment for you.

Ugurs

Q: I spent time in NW.

In political turmoil, the ability to handle a variety of conflicts simultaneously is damaged.
Q: Anyone remember Tibet 50 years ago.

They signed the UN charter.

This is a scenario.

You can delete that part if you want to.

Al Queda - becomes more sophisticated, joins organized crime.

Coordinated as not before.

NW China may have dirty bombs.

[sigh]

Uranium smuggled in lead containers.
Q: Romans.

Americans have civil rights ..
I'm saying some money of Al Queda goes into that area.
- Conflict over N Pole.

Go back a decade. Standard military posture of Russia included this. It said, \"this is the next conflict\"

Test for human beings. Everybody knows this. If we don't prevent this, shame on us.
- Nigerian Instability continues

OK, so imagine what is going on - whole lot more money going through. Another Crimean[?] war.
Emem: US removed cap - when you sue people - $75 m.

Bring all oil spill losses to the US.

Like Gulf - we have 10 of those every years.

Military gov't killed guy. Son came to US and settled for $10 m.
Few separatist movements of Islam.

Do the older north see themselves as quasi-Islam.
Emem: Christians in south.
Purpose of scenarios is not to speak the truth, but to uncover the

unknowns of the unknowns.
Emem: Probability - 10%
What is probability of all these? 0%.

What is the chance that organized crime - which may have twice

the budget of all the militaries in the world ...
A Nigeria conflict is higher than a Texas[?] conflict.
Emem: Possibility - about same.
We don't have people firing guns and blowing things up yet.
Interesting ideas.

Bus as Usual

Env Backlash

High Tech
Jose: We are basically under schedule.

Review methodology quickly.

Over 1 year project.

Japan, Canada, Kuwait, Ven.
Extensive bibliography and country energy scenarios.

China, Russia.
Example: Shell scenarios. 2050, latest.
Different ways. Matrix, Peter Schwartz.

Jerry: Shell and Herman Kahn. Shell was coached by Kahn.

Peter Schwartz worked for Shell, just like Emem.
Delphi round 1.

Energy experts from around the world.

Lot of participation from the private sector.
Second round.

Divided by scenario.
Confusing the theatre critics comments with the original play.
Jose: Sent students the link
Jerry: Current dynamics are changing.

Tons of surprises in the future.

What is surprise-free is no new dynamics, extensions.
Jose: Methodologically important.

Average answers when disagreement.

2.13 very high agreement - artificial bacteria 74% agreed.
- Energy Sources

Coal liq in 2020, Tar sands - mix does change, but not radically.
Real Time Delphi

Ted Gordon - founder of technique. Gives immediate survey responses, able to compare trends.
- International

Barry Huges, U of Colorado - Denver

Used for National Intelligence Council 2020.

Free on internet.

Did simulation, Delphi survey
Five output variables - including water usage.
- \"Fill in the Blanks\" new method.
Scenario 1 = Business as Usual.
Scenario 2 = Env Scenario - thongs are proof of global warming
Scenario 3 - High Tech

Convergence.

All information.

Contrast with Limits to Growth (1970s)

Jay Forester - father of systems dynamics.

Very wrong.

Herman Kahn: The Next 200 Years. In 1976. Future was incredibly bright.

Club of Rome is very wrong.
No lack of oil

Too much oil

Going deeper, finding oil everywhere.

Clear trend - moving into a new wave of energy

Tree wave is dead

Coal wave is going away

Each wave is cleaner

More to Hydrogen - cleaner.

Away from Carbon

Even BP \"beyond petroleum\"

Buckminster Fuller = the Energy \"Internet\"
Eric: BP rebranded, back to petroleum
GENI.org

Smart grid.
Jerry: Point Fuller was making - world peace wasn't possible until electric grids were interconnected. That grid may be in orbital space.
Pun on energy - \"Fuel-er\"
Jose: Bioenergy.

Venter funded by Exxon. To the tune of half a billion.

So basic.

All the plants make gasoline.

We call it food normally, but it is fuel.

fossil hydrocarbons = carbs.
\"The Stone Age did not end for lack of stones\"
Power content of different sources.

We are in 20-50 MJ/kg

Others are much more intensive.
Here, Russian cosmologist

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale

*Type I \u2014 a civilization that is able to harness all of the power available on a single planet \u2014 has approximately 10^16 or 10^17 W available.[2] Earth specifically has an available power of 1.74 \u00d7 10^17 W (174 petawatts, see Earth's energy budget). Kardashev's original definition was 4 \u00d7 10^12 W \u2014 a \"technological level close to the level presently attained on earth\" (\"presently\" meaning 1964).[3]

*Type II \u2014 a civilization that is able to harness all of the power available from a single star, approximately 4 \u00d7 10^26 W.[2] Again, this figure is variable; the Sun outputs approximately 3.86 \u00d7 10^26 W. Kardashev's original definition was also 4 \u00d7 10^26 W.[3]

*Type III \u2014 a civilization that is able to harness all of the power available from a single galaxy, approximately 4 \u00d7 10^37 W.[2] This figure is extremely variable, since galaxies vary widely in size; the stated figure is the approximate power output of the Milky Way. Kardashev's original definition was also 4 \u00d7 10^37 W.[3]
So, we are babies.

- The \"world\" according to Bush

bad joke.
Jerry:

- Some Interesting Idea

Subjective pulling out of 4 scenarios

Things that jumped out at me.

Apollo - like energy program

US and China signed deal

Idea to have 10 year target, like moon, to coordinate
Q: Economic incentives for cheap energy very different from moon.

Would think economic system would develop.
Whole business of moon was political.

So is this.

US/China is potential long term conflict.
Only US/Russia agreements were Soyuz.

Because of GHG, might as well use that as a target.

Env/Energy agreements with US/China.

Happened within the last year.

Turns out it is plausible.
Q: I'm impressed. Actually convinced. Wow. OK. Cool.
If no futher questions, that's all I have to say.
Drove first all electric car.

Told by GM - three batteries, each cost $10K.

China - Thunder Sky - brought price of battery to $2K.

Now have plant selling to military

Lithium ion - Prius price coming down due to batteries.
Japan plans to launch solar power station. Capability - 1st say they are going to do it.
Jose: $20 b for 15 years.
What they got this year is not the full allocation.
- Ocean based wind. Microwave back to Earth.

- Thin film solar. Use on buildings as much as possible

- Algae bio

- Nano tech efficiencies in general - make a vacuum cleaner,

but imagine if you had nano particles collecting dust.

Resources for that are very small. Energy efficiencies of nano are

extremely good.

- Remaining oil - like a woman in a men's locker room.

West sees MidEast with big power.

Their view is they've got this wonderful thing. Big powers will

come mess around. They are nervous wreck.

- Plants

- Efficiencies - pioneered in China. Urban systems econology

Wu San Wong [?]

Sensors around environment - so people of the city can

help manage the city as a whole system to get better efficiencies.

China now 2010 is world's largest energy consumer.

Number 1.

Jose: But China does not want to be #1 due to Kyoto.

Have already passed US in CO2.
- Sea water agriculture - Carl Hodges. Very nice design.

Water tables are falling. Pollution in China.

Water used for animal production.

Animal production has more GHG emissions than cars.

Idea is to use sea water as much as possible rather than fresh.

More meat without animals, the better.

Making meat without using animals has been done.

Like a pudding - no one wants to eat meat pudding.
- Hot rock geothermal.

- Solar farms to heat sterling engines

smaller ones.

Q: Liquid salt solar system. Heat large crystal of salt.

Tank contains salt - stabilizer. Then extract heat from it.
Have you heard of people doing it?

Emem: Plant in Italy.

Archemides - thermodynamic solar.

Q: This is the same thing.

Reason I am jumping on this - briefing on this with Kuwait.

They have issue with baseload. Looking at new options.

We have been suggesting heat exchange.

Flaring gas - cap that and get some energy off it.
- Shell Oil's \"Sustainable\" Growth

I added three boxes.

Notice there is not much from 1880-1940.

This was called the sustainable growth.

From 2000 on - using more fossil.
Add sequestration. Waste oil processes gave us plastics.

Love to see how we can get carbon out of energy production systems and make carbon nanotubes.
What are all of the options for carbon sequestration and reuse.

What do we know now - an e-mail address of a lab.

What is the cost effect and time to impact.
Coal to gen. Future Gen - canceled.

10 years to build plant - another 50 years to build plants.

70 years to solution.

When you do cost/benefit - add time to impact.

What are policy options.

This would be nice chart - do a good job, we'll get you a professional publication.
Solar Power Satellites.

Nuclear - reprocessing problem
No GHG, no nuke waste, enough forever.

Integrate Bucky Fuller - big science, big engineering. That is an issue.
Microwave is one of the approaches -

Japanese are looking at laser.
Q: Microwaves are just ridiculously cheaper 1000 fold.

Microwave propulsion becomes economical with another 50 fold.
O'Neill - launch costs were key.

NASA: Use nuclear.

All the rest: don't use shuttles.

Launch cost depends on how launch works.

Japanese have hot shot robotics folks - do as much mfg in space as possible.

Bring in asteroids.

Nanotech extruder - elegant solution.
Another option - build on earth, launch it up

Third - put on the moon. Lot of margins of error.

Make a mechanical cockroach that kind of shits out solar collectors.

How do you produce it for reliability.

Freeman Dyson.
Breaking into groups - 4.

Do two things:

1/ what are the energy options that are most important to invest into, based on whatever criteria you choose

2/ what do all scenarios need.

What to pursue, regardless.

Improving handheld communications - good thing.
Jose: 20 minutes. Reconvene for 10 min.

Team 1: Business as Usual

Nuclear, oil, gas, coal are considered


Team 3:
Jerry: High Tech
answer the question - what is the 1 or 2 energy investments

to make to take advantage of that whole direction.

You are in that world.

What is the best investment to make.

Public/Private is big these days.
Then, what needed in every scenario?
Team members: Candice, Max, Adam Glickman, John Graves, Hind
Candice: Back home, thinking about for decades.

Adam: We are tearing up your tar sands.

Candice: Core space - water interface. Very centric to oil sands.

Takes about 8 barrels of water for 1 of oil.

4 can be reused. 4 are lost into the product.

The water draw of the industry

1.4 T barrels. Put up to 4-5 T. Pinch point for water.

Back to high tech.

Sidestepping - steam assisted gravity drainage - \"SAG-D\"

Use water to separate it. End up with this liquid form of oil you could pull up.

Try Venter's biological in situ - let them separate and refine.

That would be very interesting.

Mitigate usage - huge ramifications for land usage and water.

What Venter is doing is very interesting.

Coming up to our area.
Max: So, came with questions.

Do we mean high tech in terms of energy, or rest of world.

Adam: We write the scenario. I see a lot of crossing.

I'm with the smart gird. Smart demand. Able to cause need, collaborative - to force peace. Starts being so interdependent.

Max: More meta-level. Instead of trying to figure out specific areas.

Quickly find right paths as they develop - funnel to them as they come up. Difficult to predict before the fact. Try a lot of diversified means. Decentralized - most efficient. As opposed to one centralized push - solar from space.

If that wasn't the answer, the other options will be underexplored.
Candice: Limit on batteries. Very much tied to usage matching generation.

Need advanced batteries - store whatever we get.

That is core core.

You bring up really good point - awareness that move to centralized grids - will be decentralized in developing world. Too much investment in centralized.

Developing have capacities - without billions and trillions.

Adam: Energy to the village.

Max: Small nukes, self contained. Store underground.

Candice: Microgrids. Various technologies. Parts of India/China/Africa.

Within 20/50 years - webbed in same sense?

Advances in storage huge.

Other core - in policy end. Fix CO2 pricing. Huge problem.

Such a low price ...

Max: Easier in this country than globally.

Candice: Fluctuates $10 to $13. Need at $65-70 per unit.

We are way out.

Push energy platform companies.

Max: In decentralized way.

Candice: Need to

Max: Greg Mankiw

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N._Gregory_Mankiw
Candice: If we woke up and agreed that carbon was $70.

Max: Leads in very decentralized way. Do it gradually.

Find what alternative works best.

Adam: Like the micro idea. Once you develop a strain.

Deionize water.

Candice: Syn bio. IGEM out of MIT.

Harnessing biological systems in bio and non-bio sense.

Process wastes to produce energy.

Just started playing with them.

Battery storage.

Actual - externality pricing.

Jose: Should be on Energy.

Adam: Optimizing for water or energy, a very thin wall.

Reverse osmosis.

[Jim Hurd arrives]

Candice: If you check out

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IGEM
Incenting in pharma.

Environmentally as well.

I'm just picking and choosing. Now quite ubiquitous.

Storage ...

Hind: I'd agree. Cost of solar going way down.

Solve the storage problem.

Candice: Any intermittent. Wind. Utilize, that's great, but it does fluctuate so much. Huge problem.

Adam: Biggest battery we have is water. Pumping water up into LA hills. That's the best we have until we build ultracapacitors.

Max: Things discussed:

decentralized

storage will be useful

externality pricing -

multiple or just ours?

Candice: Pardon my bias.

Say you got externalities or storage. Would work in all scenarios,

global issues.

Could feed in and be a driver.

Max: Political, Environmental

Candice: If we want to use battery -

Global Energy Security - even out.

Even out quality. Not utopic sense, but in general sense.

Distribute evenly.

For foreign relations. Even out Canada/US.

Look at energy-centric. Dilute that out. Share that.

Feast/famine currently.

Adam: Look at Maslow - water and food issue.

Forces you to synthesis methods.

Doesn't preclude space based solar or mineral harvesting.

Max: Problem with externality pricing.

Candice: Kicking terms around.

Max: Their pathway - from developing to what we have now - involves path through dirty energy. But what do they care. Need food on a plate.

All countries go through this stage.

If you price it, no cheap energy phase, are they cut off?

Can they not afford energy?

Not fond of that method.

10:56

Jose: Reconvene in the center. Teams present.

Back in.

Candice: Transformative - storage area. Efficient, effective - enormous. Change the way we think of energy. Complete fundamental shift. Fundamentally different. Policy would be different.
Adam: Is bang for buck likely to be for storage?

Until we go truly nano or quantum.
Candice: That's where the technological Achilles' heel.

10:59

Jerry: Scenario group 1.

Erika: So we are representing business as usual.

Basic assumptions we made:

first, centralized power production > decentralized

No radical disruption in status quo

second, fossil prices relatively stable and low

Favor established players.

Increasing urbanization
Carbon capture and sequestration

Invest in Nuclear

One across all scenarios - PV - but not strong enough to uproot

established.
Jerry: Depressing isn't it.
Jose: Backlash.

Mercy: Looking at env backlash - both env supported and env itself.

Tech - clean - solar/wind/tidal/hydro

Invest in waste/ better storage. Off peak.

#3 Early detection of backlash from crowd sources.

#4 Carbon capture and sequestration.

Incentives for reforestation.

Institutions should have free, unfettered research

Policy in this area.
Jose: No more comments.

Q: Tidal backlash.

Jerry: Two sentences:

Backlash from env to human.

What env kicks back to human.

What people do relative to movement.
Jose: Ran last Sunday.

We crossed the Golden Gate. Then crossed the finish line.

Eric. 300 out of 20,000 [applause]

Next week 100 out of 50,000.
Candice:

High tech pushes.

Core platform, Achilles' heel

Storage - not adequate currently

What we generate we have to use

Can't time shift

For other categories - would premeate through all of them.

Change the way we deal with the issue.

Interesting to change global dynamic of energy distribution.

Intersting examples:

Side step - externality of CO2 pricing. Glossing over complex situation. Would be intersting to move to $65-75 pricre range.

Price Carbon- ramifications would be substantial.
Synth bio - if I take oil sands back home - use less water. In situ.
Geobacter - degrade human wastes to produce electricity - for decentralized.
Last topic: central vs decentralized. We have huge investment in existing systems, developing countries might do better with distributed.
Jerry: When you taked about storage in high tech.

Thought to consider - imagine an alternative future where indeed, we have 1000s of solar panel sets. You manage your baseload electricity on a global basis.

Send variable amounts.

Storage in that is much different.
Jose: Team 4.

Eric: Turmoil in 2020

Michael - no decision or policy would make sense if China was

not involved.

Also, US will not be so relevant with respect to China.

Italy has always been irrelevant [laughter]

Something not already mentioned - as of now,

massively inefficient

100 energy input - 10 energy service

90 wasted.

china already and will even more aggressively eliminate waste.

Redesigning everything.

Michael pointed out - meat production could be more impactful.

China mandates making meat more expensive, reduce production.

Accelerate storage. To store solar and make more decentralized.
Transfer from meat - cows to batteries.

Michael: Major things but also talked about the automated mfg

of small scale wind systems. More desirable when you have storage.

Increase economies of scale of small mass produced wind turbines.

Favor approach with battery or post-battery storage.
Highly profitable. Especially in turmoil - way to make profits.
Jose: Questions?

OK.

Jerry: Homework. Go on-line.

http://www.unmillenniumproject.org/reports/rp_energy.htm
Francesco: No open wars between states.

None against US. No direct threat to American territories.

Satellite attack.
Jerry: Starts with dirty bomb attack.

Over 1000 deaths per year = UN definition of war.
Transnational definition of war.

Also nation state wars.
F: Book that has at least in the title.

The Next 100 Years - George Friedman

http://www.amazon.com/Next-100-Years-Forecast-Century/dp/038551705X
Jerry: When you mention Herman Kahn and wars.

Sometimes you describe these things to prevent them.

We hope Friedman is also wrong.

Important that we consider these things.
Jose: Since Herman Kahn was mentioned.

Jerry was his friend, mentor.

Paul Saffo coming.

Introduce Jerry in 2000.

When millenium edition was released.

Based on work 2 years earlier - 1998

15 global challenges.

I became involved in 2000.

Consider him my mentor.

Release latest version.

Considered one of the 10 top futurists in the world.

Toffler

Drexler

and

Jerome Glenn.

So now, we have here the chair of the Silicon Valley node

Jack Gottsman

Chairman of board.
Jack: Don't know what is left.

Always like to be introduced by Jose. Sterling example.

Jerry Glenn and I have been friends for 30 years.

Always been a leader in the futures movement

and particularlly with Ted Gordon, did feasibility study in early 90s.

1996 - delphis

Key product of the millenium project.

So, Jerry - welcome and glad to see you.

[applause]
11:22

As I explained to the SU students,

for those coming in now.

Raise your hand.

State of the Future has an executive summary

that I would like you to read.

In German, Spanish, 10 or more languages.

About 9 pages long.

General summary about 6 pages.

If you don't think those are the most important 6 pages to read,

I want edits, comments.

First chapter on global challenges.

Imagine a global think tank.

One page summaries.

One page on regional considerations.

On CD-ROM, those 30 turn into 1200.

Index.

GDP/capita is waste of time? Attempts to change measures.

If you can't measure it, you can't manage it.

Define progress.

Take 15 challenges.

What are the indicators. Got about 120 or so.

Not always good measures. Reduced to 19.

Needed 20 years of data to say something about 10 years.

2 to 1 ratio.

We are making this up as we go along.

We now have 30 indicators.

How could this variable be the best? What is the worst?

Gives us 0 and 1 to project through?

Almost best?

Gave us a number. Add across.

Only future index, so far.

All the rest are present tense.

Through the years, various iterations. Now 30 variables.

Also integrated with International Futures Model - 20 variables.

We can also go by country.
Collective Intel - in a bit.

Security -

Pleased to say, US govt has put env change with terror

Latin America -

Jose. Just did it. Twisted everyone's arm. Really pushy, gets things done.

35 nodes. an intersection.

What are you doing? What needs to be done?

Social impacts are really not done well.

Tech forecasting

But how does society really get effected by A, B, C.

Weak point that needs strengthening.
Millennum Project -

UN organizations

NGOs

Governments

Universities

Corporations

Income and input comes from all these.
35 nodes around world to send question to.

Who in their area knows about X.
Initiate activies -

Jose did Latin America study.
Look at goals - 8th is misc.

Each node can do training, workshops - their way.

Experimental.

Not a hierarchy.

Intersect networks, becomes a field of play.

Fields of play interacting with each other.
World is in a race.

Every month, environmental

http://www.aepi.army.mil/
Doug Englebart

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Douglas_Engelbart
We are overloaded with answers.

Our problem is, so many answers, no decision.

Race between implementing and the increasing global complexity.
What is the report card?

We measure:

Where are we winning.

% with access to water

Where there is little change

Where losing

Where uncertain
We have improved in absolute and percentage.

1.3 bn in middle class 100 years ago.

True rich getting richer.

Absolute growth.

With India and china - world is getting richer.
Annual population growth falling - even in Kenya.

People could become burden to retirement systems.
GDP increasing 3%. Not bad.

Physicians per person.

Internet - 30%.

More users in China than entire population of US.
Infant mortality - fewer babies die

Women in parliaments.

Trend in reducing conflicts - fewer conflicts
Where losing?

CO2

No impact so far

Increasing temp.

Voting - has gone down, stalled.

Press freedoms down.

Political expressions down. A little annoying.

Unemployment

Might be uncertain.
Instead of looking for a job because job might not be there,

look for markets instead.

What is idea, look for VC.

Before, anybody can create enterprise.

Have not shifted \"look for markets\"

Synergetic vs competitive analysis.

IBM will cooperate and compete with companies at the same time.

Backing into this with RFPs.

Teach in business schools.

Ask, what is my synergetic contribution ...
Fossil fuel - keeps going up.

Corruption - still going up. World Bank - about $1 T are paid out in bribes.

All military budgets - about 1.3 to 1.5 T.

So bribery is close to that.

So democracy is becoming an illusion.

Idealists -

Correlated to this - our estimate is organized crime is about 3 T.

In kind and cash.
Q: What percent goes to ...

I don't know.

Ask World Bank.

Copy me.
Organized crime - Columbia. Need new markets, services.

New product line - buy/sell decisions.

If we don't have global systematic strategy, business will see

it as a cost of business.

What I'm saying is,

democracy is threatened by bribery.

Democracy may become increasingly an illusion.

We do not have good strategy on this.

Now being moved around.

In the State of the Future.

Not winning there.
People killed in terrorist attack.

Refugees - uncertainty. Displaced in a country.
Little Change

HIV percent. A lot of people that got it are dead.

Not confident about India and China.
Homicide rate.
Uncertain

Nukes - hard to get information

Forest cover.

Total debt service - progress with Haiti debt forgiven

Infectious disease - getting new ones.

Movie: War of the Worlds - defeated aliens via viruses.

Serious problems in synth bio. Create bio weapons of mass destruction.
Q: Climate change microbes?
- 15 Global Challenges

Sustainable development

Clean water

Pop growth balance

Democracy

Policy

Ethical economies

Disease

Decisions

Values -

e-mail on break. Peace chart. End / prevent / create peaceful society

Women

stats - violence is disgusting. List the \"war on women\" if defined

as 1000 deaths or more. Suggestion - take leaf out of cold war.

Deterents. Give women martial arts training. Not too many women would be attacked. Italy making this a national policy. 60,000 girls.

Max: Just give them all concealed carry license.

Already paid for.

Max: When you pull out a gun, doesn't matter where you point it.

Transnational organized crime-

Meet energy demands

Accelerate tech to improve human conditions

Tech awards was spin off from this

Ethical decisions.

Some people argue - unhonorable decisions led to financial crisis.
That becomes the human agenda.

That's the job.

We have learned in biology to understand in terms of systems.

We have a general understanding of the body.

This is a framework for the whole system.

Hurt one, you hurt the whole system.
Collective intelligence

Korea

Kuwait

15 challenges

Jack Park - key player in making this happen.
Foundation of the Future

http://www.futurefoundation.org/
Everyone in this room is \"collective judgement\"

Collective intelligence is emergent property going on all the time.

Just doing an internet search or database search or expert answers is not it.

The \"Aha\" business.

People able to change, not relational database.

-Each can change the other

[Triangle:

Groups of Experts

Hardware
]
5 expert groups:

Climate Science

Green Tech

Energy

Policy

Adaptation
Q: Tom Malone, MIT.

http://cci.mit.edu/
We have a check for him. Owes me an e-mail.

He'll be involved.
Here is one interface - looking like a normal website.

Click on resources, has all the other similar

Branson

DOE

best world has to offer
Aggregator - 3,4,5,600 RSS feeds.
Q: Climate change on other planets as well.
Start with baby steps.

Discuss on list serv.

Goes into compendium.

All of these are searchable.
Q: I'm suspicious of carbon credit schemes, creating derivatives.

[? http://endthefedusa.ning.com/forum/topics/carbon-credit-derivatives ?]
Jose: 80% correlation of temperature of Earth and Mars.
Jerry: Put it all on the table.

Pro/con.

Research.

Be sure to put in the research statement.

Find what is just opinion.
Jim Hurd: Middle east/energy.
Jerry: Tomorrow, briefing from early warning system

for Prime Minister in Kuwait.

In hot seasons, AC hits peak.

How to meet that need?

Have human intelligence do it.

Options in improving electric production in Kuwait.
Respond to feedback. Leads to intelligence.

Even if wrong - changing / edit it.
- Collective Intelligence Software Platform
Publish live for participants
Two wikis:

Experts

Non-experts.
Bring non-expert into expert group and you lose the experts.

All into global server
Step by step to get to something Doug has been talking about for a long time.
Jose: OK. Coordinating Latin America 2030 study.

Most independence - 1810 began.

Celebrate 200 years.

Time for study. 2 years. First phase began.

Incredibly good response, including Cuba. Censored there.



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