Philip e. Tetlock



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1999

Fiske, A., & Tetlock, P.E. (1999). Taboo trade-offs: Constitutive prerequisites for social life. In S.A. Renshon & J. Duckitt (Eds.), Political psychology: Cultural and cross-cultural perspectives. London: MacMillan.

Goldberg, J.H., Lerner, J.S., & Tetlock, P.E. (1999). Rage and reason: The psychology of the intuitive prosecutor. European Journal of Social Psychology, 29, 781-795.

Hermann, R., Tetlock, P.E., & Visser, P. (1999). Mass public decisions on going to war: A cognitive-interactionist framework. American Political Science Review, 93, 553-574.

Lerner, J., & Tetlock, P.E. (1999). Accounting for the effects of accountability. Psychological Bulletin, 125, 255-275.

Mellers, B.A., Erev, I., Fessler, D.M.T., Hemelrijk, C.K., Hertwig, R., Laland, K.N., Scherer, K.R., Seeley, T.D., Selten, R., & Tetlock, P.E. (1999). Effects of emotional and social processes on bounded rationality. In G. Gigerenzer & R. Selten (Eds.) Bounded rationality: The adaptive toolbox. Cambridge: MIT Press.

Tetlock, P.E. (1999). Accountability theory: Mixing properties of human agents with properties of social systems. In J. Levine, L. Thompson, & D. Messick (Eds.), Shared cognition in organizations: The management of knowledge. Erlbaum: Hillsdale, N.J.

Tetlock, P.E. (1999). Prospecting for evidence for prospect theory. Review of R. McDermott, Risk-taking in international politics: Prospect theory in American foreign policy. Contemporary Psychology, 44, 399-401.

Tetlock, P.E. (1999). Review of R. Nisbett & D. Cohen, Culture of honor: The psychology of violence in the South. Political Psychology, 20, 211-213.

Tetlock, P.E. (1999). The ever-shifting psychological foundations of democratic theory: Do citizens have the right stuff? Critical Review, 12, 545-561.

Tetlock, P.E. (1999). Theory-driven reasoning about possible pasts and probable futures: Are we prisoners of our preconceptions? American Journal of Political Science, 43, 335-366.

Tetlock, P.E., & Lerner, J. (1999). The social contingency model: Identifying empirical and normative boundary conditions on the error-and-bias portrait of human nature. In S. Chaiken & Y. Trope (Eds.), Dual process models in social psychology. New York: Guilford Press.



1998

Lerner, J., Goldberg, J., & Tetlock, P.E. (1998). Sober second thought: The effects of accountability, anger, and authoritarianism on attributions of responsibility. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 24, 563-574.

Peterson, R., Owens, P., Tetlock, P.E., Fan, E., & Martorana, P. (1998). Group dynamics in top management teams: Groupthink, vigilance, and alternative models of failure and success in organizations. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 73, 77-99.

Tetlock, P.E. (1998). Close-call counterfactuals and belief system defenses: I was not almost wrong but I was almost right. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 75, 639-652.

Tetlock, P.E. (1998). Losing our religion: On the collapse of precise normative standards in complex accountability systems. In R. Kramer & M. Neale (Eds.), Influence processes in organizations: Emerging themes in theory and research. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.

Tetlock, P.E. (1998). Social psychology and world politics. In S. Fiske, D. Gilbert, & G. Lindzey (Eds.), Handbook of social psychology (4th ed.). New York: McGraw-Hill.



1997

Fiske, A., & Tetlock, P.E. (1997). Taboo trade-offs: Reactions to transactions that transgress spheres of justice. Political Psychology, 18, 255-297. Reprinted in M. Bazerman (Ed.), Negotiation, decision making and conflict management. Blackwell.

Kuklinski, J.H., Sniderman, P., Knight, K., Piazza, T., Tetlock, P.E., Lawrence, G.R., & Mellers, B. (1997). Racial prejudice and attitudes toward affirmative action. American Journal of Political Science, 41, 402-419.

Tetlock, P.E. (1997) Psychological dimensions of foreign policy: Cognition, identity, and influence. Published in Italian as Dimensioni psicologiche della politica internazionale: Processi cognitivi, influenza ed identita´. In V. Girotto & P. Legrenzi (Eds.), Psychologia epolitica. Milan: R. Cortina Editore.

Tetlock, P.E. (1997). Mending the tripartite division of mind. Review of P.W. Gollwitzer & J.A. Bargh (Eds.), The psychology of action: Linking cognition and motivation to action. Contemporary Psychology, 42, 904-906.

Tetlock, P.E. (1997). Psychological perspectives on international conflict and cooperation. In D. Halpern (Ed.), States of mind: American and post-Soviet perspectives on contemporary issues in psychology. New York: Oxford University Press.

Tetlock, P.E. (1997). Review of G. Brunk, D. Secrest, & H. Tamashiro, Understanding attitudes about war: Modeling moral judgments. American Political Science Review, 91, 776-777.

1996

Buchman, T., Tetlock, P.E., & Reed, R.O. (1996). Accountability and auditors’ judgments about contingent events. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, 23, 379-398.

Tetlock, P.E. (1996). A great historiometrician examines greatness. Review of D. Simonton, Greatness. Contemporary Psychology, 40, 1137-1138.

Tetlock, P.E. (1996). Accountability and social systems: A psychological perspective. In P. Stenning (Ed.), Accountability for criminal justice. Toronto: University of Toronto Press.

Tetlock, P.E. (1996). Political or politicized psychology revisited: Is the distinction worth respecting? Review of M. Ettin, J. Fiedler, & B. Cohen (Eds.), Group process and political dynamics. Contemporary Psychology, 41, 1200-1201.

Tetlock, P.E., & Belkin, A. (1996). Counterfactual thought experiments in world politics: Logical, methodological, and psychological perspectives. In P.E. Tetlock & A. Belkin (Eds), Thought experiments in world politics. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Tetlock, P.E., & Tyler, A. (1996). Winston Churchill’s cognitive and rhetorical style: The debates over Nazi intentions and self-government for India. Political Psychology, 17, 149-170. Reprinted in H. Gyorgy (Ed.), Historical and political psychology. Budapest: Osiris Publishing House / Malden, MA: Blackwell (1998).

Tetlock, P.E., Lerner, J., & Boettger, R. (1996). The dilution effect: Judgmental bias, conversational convention, or a bit of both? European Journal of Social Psychology, 26, 915-935.

Tetlock, P.E., Peterson, R., & Lerner, J. (1996). Revising the value pluralism model: Incorporating social content and context postulates. In C. Seligman, J. Olson, & M. Zanna (Eds.), Ontario symposium on social and personality psychology: Values. Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.



1995

Tetlock, P.E. (1995). Agreeing to disagree: A respectful reply to a senior statesman of political psychology. Political Psychology, 16, 671-675.



1994

Tetlock, P.E. (1994). The psychology of futurology and the future of psychology. Psychological Science, 5, 1-4.

Tetlock, P.E. (1994). The consequences of taking consequentialism seriously: Commentary on Jonathan Baron’s “Nonconsequentialist decisions.” Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 17, 31-33.

Tetlock, P.E. (1994). Political psychology or politicized psychology: Is the road to scientific hell paved with good moral intentions? Political Psychology, 15, 509-530.

Tetlock, P.E. (1994). How politicized is political psychology and is there anything we should do about it? Political Psychology, 15, 567-577.

Tetlock, P.E., Armor, D., & Peterson, R. (1994). The slavery debate in antebellum America: Cognitive style, value conflict, and the limits of compromise. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 66, 115-126.

Tetlock, P.E., & Boettger, R. (1994). Accountability amplifies the status quo effect when change creates victims. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 7, 1-23.

Tetlock, P.E. (1994). Accountability. In M. Hewstone & A.S.R. Manstead (Eds.), Dictionary of social psychology. Oxford: Blackwell.

Tetlock, P.E. (1994). Integrative complexity. In M. Hewstone & A.S.R. Manstead (Eds.), Dictionary of social psychology. Oxford: Blackwell.

Tetlock, P.E. (1994). Political psychology. In M. Hewstone & A.S.R. Manstead (Eds.), Dictionary of social psychology. Oxford: Blackwell.

Tetlock, P.E. (1994). Complex answers to a simple question: Is integrative complexity politically correct? In G. Brannigan & M. Merrens (Eds.), The social psychologists. New York: McGraw-Hill.

Lerner, J., & Tetlock, P.E. (1994). Accountability and social cognition. Encyclopedia of human behavior. New York: Academic Press.

Tetlock, P.E. (1994). The market experience: The worst system except for all the others? Review of R. Lane, The market experience. Contemporary Psychology, 39, 589-591.

1993

Mitchell, P. G., Tetlock, P.E., Mellers, B. A., & Ordonez, L. (1993). Judgments of social justice: Compromises between equality and efficiency. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 65, 629-639.

Skitka, L., & Tetlock, P.E. (1993). Providing public assistance: Cognitive and motivational processes underlying liberal and conservative policy preferences. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 65, 1205-1224.

Sniderman, P., Northrup, D., Fletcher, J., Russell, P., & Tetlock, P.E. (1993). Psychological and cultural foundations of prejudice: The case of anti-semitism in Quebec. Canadian Review of Sociology and Anthropology, 30, 242-270.

Tetlock, P.E., Peterson, R., & Berry, J. (1993). Flattering and unflattering personality portraits of integratively simple and complex managers. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 64, 500-511.

Skitka, L., & Tetlock, P.E. (1993). Of ants and grasshoppers: The political psychology of allocating public assistance. In B. Mellers & J. Baron (Eds.), Psychological perspectives on justice. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Sniderman, P., Tetlock, P.E., & Carmines, E.G. (1993). Prejudice and politics: An introduction. In P. Sniderman, P.E. Tetlock, & E.G. Carmines (Eds.), Prejudice, politics and the American dilemma. Stanford: Stanford University Press.

Sniderman, P., Tetlock, P.E., Carmines, E.G., & Peterson, R. (1993). The politics of the American dilemma: Issue pluralism. In P. Sniderman, P.E. Tetlock, & E.G. Carmines (Eds.), Prejudice, politics and the American dilemma. Stanford: Stanford University Press.

Tetlock, P.E., & Mitchell, P.G. (1993). Liberal and conservative approaches to justice: Conflicting psychological portraits. In B. Mellers & J. Baron (Eds.), Psychological perspectives on justice. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Tetlock, P.E. (1993). Like good wine, good research takes time. Review of D.F. Alwin, R. Cohen, & T.M. Newcomb, Political attitudes over the life span: The Bennington women after 50 years. Contemporary Psychology, 38, 347-348. Review of the same book also appears in American Political Science Review (1993).



1992

Tetlock, P.E. (1992). The impact of accountability on judgment and choice: Toward a social contingency model. In M. Zanna (Ed.), Advances in experimental social psychology (vol. 25) (pp. 331376). New York: Academic Press.

Tetlock, P.E. (1992). Is it a bad idea to study good judgment? Political Psychology, 13, 429-435.

Tetlock, P.E. (1992). Good judgment in international politics: Three psychological perspectives. Political Psychology, 13, 517-540.

Skitka, L., & Tetlock, P.E. (1992). Allocating scarce resources: A contingency model of distributive justice. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 28, 491-522.

Sniderman, P., Tetlock, P.E., & Peterson, R. (1992). Racism and liberal democracy. Politics and the individual.

Tetlock, P.E., McGuire, C., Peterson, R., Feld, P., & Chang, S. (1992). Assessing political group dynamics: A test of the groupthink model. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 63, 402-423.

Tetlock, P.E. (1992). Cognitive structural analysis of political rhetoric: Methodological and theoretical issues. Pp. 380-407. In S. Iyengar & W. J. McGuire (Eds.), Political psychology: A reader. Durham, NC: Duke University Press.

Baker-Brown, G., Ballard, E.J., Bluck, S., deVries, B., Suedfeld, P., & Tetlock, P. (1992). The integrative complexity coding manual. In C. Smith (Ed.), Handbook of thematic analysis. (pp. 605-611). New York: Cambridge University Press.

Suedfeld, P., Tetlock, P.E., & Streufert, S. (1992). Conceptual/integrative complexity. In C. Smith (Ed.), Handbook of thematic content analysis (pp. 393-401). New York: Cambridge University Press.



1991

Tetlock, P.E. (1991). An alternative metaphor in the study of judgement and choice: People as politicians. Theory and Psychology, 1, 451-477. Reprinted in R. Hogarth & W. Goldstein (Eds.), Judgment and decision-making: An interdisciplinary reader. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996.

Tetlock, P.E. (1991). Some thoughts on fourth generational models of social cognition. Psychological Inquiry, 1, 212-215.

Tetlock, P.E. (1991). Some thoughts about thought systems. In R. Wyer (Ed.), Advances in social cognition. Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.

Sniderman, P., Fletcher, J., Russell, P., Tetlock, P.E., & Gaines, B. (1991). The fallacy of democratic elitism: Elite competition and commitment to civil liberties. British Journal of Political Science, 21, 349-370.

Sniderman, P., Piazza, T., Tetlock, P.E., & Kendrick, A. (1991). Racism and the American ethos. American Journal of Political Science, 35, 423-447. Reprinted in M. Cross (Ed.), The sociology of race and ethnicity (2000). The interdisciplinary library of critical writings in sociology. Cheltenham, Elgar.

Sniderman, P.M., Fletcher, J., Russell, P., & Tetlock, P.E. (1991). Strategic calculation and political values: The dynamics of language rights. Canadian Journal of Political Science, 23, 537-545.

Tetlock, P.E., McGuire, C., & Mitchell, P.G. (1991). Psychological perspectives on nuclear deterrence. Annual Review of Psychology, 42, 239-276. Palo Alto: Annual Reviews, Inc.

Tetlock, P.E. (1991). Integrative complexity of political discourse in American-Soviet relations. In W. Gamson & C. Tilly (Eds.) Working papers on security discourse in the Cold War. New York: Center for Studies of Social Change, New School for Social Research.

Tetlock, P.E. (1991). Learning in U.S. and Soviet foreign policy: In search of an elusive concept. Introductory chapter in G. Breslauer & P.E. Tetlock (Eds.), Learning in U.S. and Soviet foreign policy. Boulder, CO: Westview.

Breslauer, G., & Tetlock, P.E. (1991). Introduction. In G. Breslauer & P.E. Tetlock (Eds.), Learning in U.S. and Soviet foreign policy. Boulder, CO: Westview.

Sniderman, P., Brody, R., & Tetlock, P.E. (1991). Introduction: Major themes. In P. Sniderman, R. Brody, & P.E. Tetlock (Eds.), Reasoning and choice: Explorations in political psychology. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Sniderman, P., Brody, R., & Tetlock, P.E. (1991). The role of heuristics in political reasoning: A theory sketch. In P. Sniderman, R. Brody, & P.E. Tetlock (Eds.), Reasoning about politics: Explorations in political psychology. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Sniderman, P., Tetlock, P.E., & Fell, P. (1991). The American dilemma: The role of law as a persuasive symbol. In P. Sniderman, R. Brody, & P.E. Tetlock (Eds.), Reasoning and choice: Explorations in political psychology. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Sniderman, P., Brody, R., & Tetlock, P.E. (1991). Retrospect and prospect. In P. Sniderman, R. Brody, & P.E. Tetlock (Eds.), Reasoning and choice: Explorations in political psychology. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Suedfeld, P., & Tetlock, P.E. (1991). Psychologists as policy advocates: The roots of controversy. In P. Suedfeld and P.E. Tetlock (Eds.), Psychology and social policy. Washington, D.C.: Hemisphere.

Suedfeld, P., & Tetlock, P.E. (1991). Psychological advice about political decision making: Heuristics, biases, and cognitive defects. In P. Suedfeld & P.E. Tetlock, Psychology and social policy. Washington, DC: Hemisphere.

1990

Tetlock, P.E. (1990). Some pessimistic ruminations on disentangling causal processes in presidential elections. Psychological Inquiry, 1, 75-76.

McGuire, C., & Tetlock, P.E. (1990). Review of C.J. Lamb, Belief systems and decisionmaking in the Mayaguez crisis. Political Science Quarterly, 105, 144-145.

1989

Tetlock, P.E. (1989). The selfishness-altruism debate: In defense of agnosticism. Brain and Behavioral Sciences, 12, 723-724.

Piazza, T., Sniderman, P.M., & Tetlock, P.E. (1989). Analysis of the dynamics of political reasoning: A general-purpose computer-assisted methodology. In J. Stimson (Ed.), Political analysis (Vol. 1). Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, pp. 91-121.

Sniderman, P.M., Fletcher, J., Russell, P., & Tetlock, P.E. (1989). Political culture and the problem of double standards: Mass and elite attitudes toward language rights. Canadian Journal of Political Science, 22, 259-286.

Manstead, A.S.R., & Tetlock, P.E. (1989). Cognitive appraisal and emotional experience: Further evidence: Cognition and Emotion, 3, 225-240.

Tetlock, P.E., & Boettger, R. (1989). Accountability: A social magnifier of the dilution effect. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology: Attitudes and Social Cognition, 57, 388-398.

Tetlock, P.E., & Boettger, R. (1989). Cognitive and rhetorical styles of traditionalist and reformist Soviet politicians: A content analysis study. Political Psychology, 10(2), 209-232.

Tetlock, P.E., Skitka, L., & Boettger, R. (1989). Social and cognitive strategies of coping with accountability: Conformity, complexity, and bolstering. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology: Interpersonal Relations and Group Dynamics, 57, 632-641.

Tetlock, P.E. (1989). Methodological themes and variations. In P.E. Tetlock, R. Jervis, C. Tilly, P. Stern, & J. Husbands (Eds.), Behavior, society, and nuclear war. (Vol. 1). New York: Oxford University Press.

Bell, N., & Tetlock, P.E. (1989). The intuitive politician and the assignment of blame in organizations. In J. Giacalone & P. Rosenfeld (Eds.), Impression management in organizations. Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. Pp. 105-123.

Tetlock, P.E., Husbands, J., Jervis, R., Stern, P., & Tilly, C. Introduction to Volume 1 (1989) of Behavior, society and nuclear war. New York: Oxford University Press. Separate Introduction for Volume 2 (1990).

1988

Tetlock, P.E. (1988). Integrative complexity of text and of reader as moderators of aesthetic evaluations. Poetics, 17, 357-366. Reprinted in Psicholo’gia (1989, issue 1): A szovegek e’s az olvaso’k integrativ komplexita’sa mint az esztetikai e’rte’kele’s kozvetito” je, pp. 47-56.

Tetlock, P.E. (1988). Monitoring the integrative complexity of American and Soviet policy rhetoric: What can be learned? Journal of Social Issues, 44(2), 101-131.

Sniderman, P., Tetlock, P.E., Gleser, J., Green, D., & Hout, M. (1988). Principled tolerance and the American mass public. British Journal of Political Science, 19, 25-45.

Tetlock, P.E. (1988). Structure and function in political belief systems. In A.G. Greenwald & A. Pratkanis (Eds.), Attitude structure and function. Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.

Tetlock, P.E., & Suedfeld, P. (1988). Integrative complexity coding of verbal behavior. In C. Antaki (Ed.), Lay explanation. Beverly Hills: Sage.



1987

Tetlock, P.E. (1987). Testing deterrence theory: Some conceptual and methodological issues. Journal of Social Issues, 43:4, 85-91.

Tetlock, P.E., & Kim, J.L. (1987). Accountability and judgment in a personality prediction task. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology: Attitudes and Social Cognition, 52, 700-709.

Tetlock, P.E. (1987). The psychology of war and peace. Review of S. Oskamp (Ed.), International conflict and national public policy issues: Applied social psychology annual. Contemporary Psychology, 32, 655-656.

Tetlock, P.E. (1987). Who gets what from whom? Review of D. G. Pruitt & J. Rubin, Social conflict: Escalation, stalemate, and settlement. Contemporary Psychology, 32, 513-514.

Tetlock, P.E. (1987). Is all psychological knowledge reducible to ideology? Review of K. Larsen, Dialectics and ideology in psychology. Contemporary Psychology, 33, 639-640. Response to Knud Larsen’s critique of the review: Who should decide what is false consciousness? Contemporary Psychology, 1988.

Tetlock, P.E. (1987). Review of R. Lau & D. O. Sears (Eds.), The 19th Annual Carnegie Symposium on Cognition: Political Cognition. Political Psychology, 8, 139-144.

1986

Tetlock, P.E. (1986). A value pluralism model of ideological reasoning. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology: Personality Processes and Individual Differences, 50, 819827. Reprinted in E. Aronson & A. Pratkanis (Eds.), (1991), International library of critical readings in psychology. London: Elgar Publishing Co.

Tetlock, P.E. (1986). Psychological advice on foreign policy: What do we have to contribute? American Psychologist, 41, 557-567.

Sniderman, P.M., Hagen, M., Tetlock, P.E., & Brady, H. (1986). Reasoning chains: Causal models of policy reasoning in mass publics. British Journal of Political Science, 16, 405-430.

Sniderman, P.M., & Tetlock, P.E. (1986). Symbolic racism: Problems of motive attribution in political analysis: Journal of Social Issues, 42, 129-150.

Sniderman, P.M., & Tetlock, P.E. (1986). Reflections on American racism. Journal of Social Issues, 42, 173-188.

Swede, S., & Tetlock, P.E. (1986). Henry Kissinger’s implicit theory of personality: A quantitative case study. Journal of Personality, 54, 617-646.

Tetlock, P.E. (1986). Integrative complexity of policy reasoning. In S. Kraus & R. Perloff (Eds.), Mass media and political thought. Beverly Hills: Sage.

Sniderman, P., & Tetlock, P.E. (1986). Interrelationship of political ideology and public opinion. In M. Hermann (Ed.), Handbook of political psychology. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.

Tetlock, P.E., & McGuire, C. (1986). Cognitive perspectives on foreign policy. In S. Long (Ed.), Political behavior annual. Boulder, CO: Westview Press. Reprinted in R. White (Ed.), Psychology and the prevention of nuclear war. New York: New York University Press (1986) and in N. Kressel (Ed.), Political psychology: Classic and contemporary readings. New York: Paragon House (1993) and in G.J. Ikenberry (Ed.), American foreign policy: Theoretical essays, 5/e. St. Cloud, FL: Longman Publishers (2005).

Tetlock, P.E. (1986). Is self-categorization theory the solution to the level of analysis problem? British Journal of Social Psychology, 25, 255-256.

Tetlock, P.E. (1986). Review of R.M. Farr & S. Moscovici (Eds.), Social representations. American Scientist.

Tetlock, P.E. (1986). Review of J. Thompson, Psychological aspects of nuclear war. British Journal of Social Psychology, 25, 78-79.

Tetlock, P.E. (1986) Review of J. Shotter, Social accountability and selfhood. British Journal of Social Psychology, 25, 75-79.




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