Pakistan’s Economy 1999/2000 – 2007/2008 An objective appraisal


June 2002 June 2007



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June 2002



June 2007

Change in

the

Indicator

GDP Growth Rate

3.1%

7.0%

Positive

Inflation

3.5%

7.8%

Negative

Fiscal Deficit /GDP

-4.3%

-4.3%

None

Current Account /GDP

3.8%

-4.9%

Negative

Public Debt / GDP

82.91%

55.7%

Positive

External Debt/GDP

46.6%

27.8%

Positive

Interest Payments/ Govt. Revenues

44.7%

28.4%

Positive

Remittances

US$ 200 million per month

-US$ 458 million per month

Positive

Exports

US$ 9.1 billion

US$ 17.0 billion

Positive

Tax Revenues

Rs.404 billion

Rs. 890 billion

Positive

Rupees- Dollar Parity

Depreciating

Stable

Positive

Foreign Direct Investment




US$ 5.1 billion

Positive

Foreign Exchange Reserves

US$ 6.4 billion

US $ 16.5 billion

Positive

Poverty Incidence

34%

24%

Positive

Unemployment

8.3%

6.5%

Positive



TABLE-III
SOURCES OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE EARNINGS

FY 00 – FY 07

$ Million







FY 00

FY 01

FY 02

FY 03

FY 04

FY 05

FY 06

FY 07

A. Exports of Goods & Services

9,574

10,284

11,056

13,686

15,103

17,801

20,254

21,202

B. Workers’ Remittances

983

3,087

2,390

4,237

2,871

4,168

4,600

5,500

C. Other Private Transfers

2111

2,853

1,899

1,559

2,293

4,202

5,345

4,608

D. Official Transfers

940

842

1,500

1,051

634

398

679

528

E. Debt Relief

-

-

-

1,000

-

-

-

0

F. Foreign Direct Investment

472

323

485

798

951

1,096

1,981

4,873

G. Privatization Proceeds

-

-

-

-

-

363

1,540

267

H. Euro / Sukuk Bonds













500

600

800

977

I. Equity Securities

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

2,303

J. Foreign Loans / Credits

1589

2812

2,910

2,293

1,726

2,431

2,728

4,140

K. Others

158

175

164

271

199

1,642

2,527

1759

TOTAL:

15,827

18,377

20,404

24,895

25,253

32,106

40,508

46,157

TABLE-IV

KEY INDICATORS OF US ASSISTANCE





2006-07

  1. Annual US assistance (of all forms) as % of total budgetary expenditure ($ 25 billions)

7.2%

  1. Annual US assistance (of all forms) as % of total foreign exchange receipts ($ 40 billions)

4.5%

  1. Annual US assistance ( of all forms) as % of total imports ($ 28 billions)

6.4%

  1. Annual US assistance as % of current account receipts ($ 31 billions)

5.8%


TABLE-V
SOCIAL INDICATORS





1999

2006/07

Life expectancy (years)

62.7

63.9

Population growth rate (%)

2.7

1.8

Infant Mortality Rate (per 1000 live buths)

85

77

Proportion of Fully Immunized children(%)

49

77

Expenditure on Education (% of Gdp)

1.82

2.43

No. of Education institutions

160,685

227,953

Literacy Rate (%)

44

56

Gross Enrolment Ratio

at Primary level (%)



91

71

Gender Parity Index

0.763

0.834


TABLE-VI
Where has investment been made?

1999/00- 2006/07

Rs. Billion







% share

Manufacturing

1797

22.3

Transport & Communication

1600

20.0

Dwellings

887

11.0

Agriculture

779

9.7

Services

658

802

Electricity & Gas

454

5.6

Mining

374

4.6

Finance

224

2.8

Trade

-146

1.8

Construction

136

1.7

Federal Government

312

3.9

Provincial Government

464

5.8

Local Government

225

2.8

Current Prices

8055

100.0

Constant Prices 1999-00

5670




TABLE-VII
FIXED INVESTMENT BY SECTORS




1999-00

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

Rs. Billion current prices Total

Percentage share

Manufacturing

14

151

168

165

204

247

318

404

1797

22.3

Agriculture

75

67

69

75

81

135

136

141

779

9.7

Transport & Communication

80

104

96

94

149

225

390

471

1600

20

Dwellings

78

87

87

91

110

129

149

156

887

11

Services

50

53

56

56

77

101

125

140

658

8.2

Finance

10

5

10

23

28

32

40

76

224

2.8

Mining

18

33

49

77

19

33

49

96

374

4.6

Trade

7

10

11

15

17

21

29

36

146

1.8

Electric & gas

67

67

57

57

25

40

69

72

454

5.6

Construction

15

13

15

7

10

18

26

32

136

1.7

Federal Govt.

25

24

30

31

41

39

53

69

312

3.9




Provincial Govt.

32

31

18

27

50

71

113

122

464

5.8




Local Bodies

9

11

23

29

33

42

31

47

225

2.8




Total:

607

659

680

736

844

1135

1530

1864

8055

100.0





CHART - I
Acceleration in Real GDP Growth



CHART – II

Rise in Per capita income


CHART - III
Decline in Budgetary deficit




CHART – IV
Rising Tax Revenues



CHART - V
Fall in Public debt

CHART - VI

Improved Debt servicing capacity





CHART - VII
Lower External Debt burden











CHART - VIII
Stagnant External debt & liabilities




HART - IX
Low Inflation for first five years



CHART - X
Large demand for Private sector credit


CHART - XI
Lower Cost of capital





CHART - XII
Rise in Imports of machinery




CHART – XIII
Expansion in Exports



CHART - XIV
Sharp increase in Remittances




CHART - XV
Surplus current account until FY 04



CHART - XVI
Strong Foreign Exchange Reserves





CHART - XVII
Decline in incidence of poverty







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