   Online Appendix: Coding of Variables
ANES
Approval of Bush’s handling of war in Iraq (v043132, v043133): 4-point scale from strongly approve to strongly disapprove, rescaled to 0-1 where 0 = strongly disapprove, 0.33 = disapprove, 0.66 approve, 1 = strongly approve
Approval of Bush’s handling of war on terror (v043032, v043033): 4-point scale from strongly approve to strongly disapprove, rescaled to 0-1 where 0 = strongly disapprove, 0.33 = disapprove, 0.66 approve, 1 = strongly approve
Approval of Bush’s handling of economy (v043026, v043027): 4-point scale from strongly approve to strongly disapprove, rescaled to 0-1 where 0 = strongly disapprove, 0.33 = disapprove, 0.66 approve, 1 = strongly approve
Democrat/Republican/independent identifier (v043116): 1 = identify with Democrats, 0 = do not identify with Democrats; 1 = identify with Republicans, 0 = do not identify with Republicans; 1 = identify as independent, 0 = do not identify as independent
Relative strength of leaders (v043118, v043125): 7-point scale from +1 most pro-Bush to -1 most pro-Kerry
Relative caring of leaders (v043119, v043126): 7-point scale from +1 most pro-Bush to -1 most pro-Kerry
Relative knowledge of leaders (v043120, v043127): 7-point scale from +1 most pro-Bush to -1 most pro-Kerry
Relative morality of leaders (v043117, v043124): 7-point scale from +1 most pro-Bush to -1 most pro-Kerry
Relative honesty of leaders (v043122, v043129): 7-point scale from +1 most pro-Bush to -1 most pro-Kerry
Relative feelings toward leaders (v043038, v043039): 201-points rescaled to +1 = most pro-Bush to -1 = most pro-Kerry
Vote choice (v045025, V045026): dummy variables where 1 = voted Bush, 0 = did not vote Bush (including non-voters), and 1 = voted Kerry, 0 = did not vote Kerry (including non-voters)
BES Rolling Cross Section
Labour’s handling of War in Iraq (pre_q13): 5-point scale from very well to very badly, rescaled to 0-1 where 0 = very badly, 1 = very well
Labour’s handling of war on terror (pre_q10): 5-point scale from very well to very badly, rescaled to 0-1 where 0 = very badly, 1 = very well
Labour’s handling of economy (pre_q12): 5-point scale from very well to very badly, rescaled to 0-1 where 0 = very badly, 1 = very well
Labour/Conservative/Liberal Democrat party identifier (pre_q29, pre_q31, pre_q144): 1 = identify with Labour Party, 0 = do not identify with Labour Party; 1 = identify with Conservative Party, 0 = do not identify with Conservative Party; 1 = identify with Liberal Democrat Party, 0 = do not identify with Liberal Democrat Party.
Relative competence of leaders (pre_q50, pre_q62, pre_q51, pre_q63): 21-points rescaled to +1 = most pro-Blair to -1 = most pro-Howard
Relative responsiveness of leaders (pre_q53, pre_q65, pre_q54, pre_q66): 21-points rescaled to +1 = most pro-Blair to -1 = most pro-Howard
Relative trust of leaders (pre_q56, pre_q59, pre_q57, pre_q60): 21-points rescaled to +1 = most pro-Blair to -1 = most pro-Howard
Relative feelings toward leaders (cam_q41, cam_q42): 21-points rescaled to +1 = most pro-Blair to -1 = most pro-Howard
Vote choice (post_q19, post_q20): dummy variables where 1 = voted Labour, 0 = did not vote Labour (including non-voters), 1 = voted Conservative, 0 = did not vote Conservative (including non-voters), and 1 = voted Liberal Democrat, 0 = did not vote Liberal Democrat (including non-voters)
Table A1: Univariate Statistics for Variables Used in Models (Mean Scores)
-
|
ANES
|
BES
|
Approval of War in Iraq (0-1 scale)
|
.39
|
.29
|
Approval of war on terror (0-1 scale)
|
.53
|
.48
|
Approval of economy (0-1 scale)
|
.42
|
.61
|
Relative feelings toward leaders (-1 to 1 scale)
|
.02
|
.05
|
Relative knowledge (-1 to 1 scale)
|
-.11
|
|
Relative morality (-1 to 1 scale)
|
.04
|
|
Relative honesty (-1 to 1 scale)
|
-.03
|
|
Relative caring (-1 to 1 scale)
|
-.07
|
|
Relative strength (-1 to 1 scale)
|
.10
|
|
Relative competence (-1 to 1 scale)
|
|
.05
|
Relative trustworthiness (-1 to 1 scale)
|
|
-.01
|
Relative responsiveness (-1 to 1 scale)
|
|
-.09
|
Table A2: Party Identification and the Impact of the War in Iraq in the US
|
Specific leadership qualities
|
|
Vote preference
|
|
Knowledgeable
|
Moral
|
Honest
|
Cares
|
Strong
|
Overall feelings
|
Bush
|
Kerry
|
War in Iraq
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Republican identifier
|
.39 (.07)*
|
.37 (.06)*
|
.34 (.07)*
|
.41 (.07)*
|
.30 (.06)*
|
.14 (.04)*
|
.11 (.08)
|
-.16 (.05)*
|
Democrat identifier
|
.27 (.07)*
|
.29 (.06)*
|
.29 (.08)*
|
.26 (.08)*
|
.39 (.08)*
|
.16 (.04)*
|
.16 (.07)*
|
-.22 (.09)*
|
war on terror
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Republican identifier
|
-.07 (.09)
|
.11 (.07)
|
.13 (.10)
|
.07 (.09)
|
.34 (.09)*
|
.08 (.05)#
|
.08 (.10)
|
-.06 (.07)
|
Democrat identifier
|
.38 (.06)*
|
.20 (.05)*
|
.23 (.06)*
|
.15 (.06)*
|
.30 (.06)*
|
.14 (.03)*
|
.05 (.04)
|
-.08 (.07)
|
Economy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Republican identifier
|
.15 (.05)*
|
.16 (.05)*
|
.13 (.06)*
|
.24 (.06)*
|
.15 (.05)*
|
.10 (.03)*
|
.16 (.07)*
|
-.10 (.04)*
|
Democrat identifier
|
.12 (.06)#
|
.16 (.06)*
|
.18 (.06)*
|
.39 (.06)*
|
.21 (.05)*
|
.09 (.04)*
|
.11 (.07)
|
-.03 (.08)
|
Strong
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Republican identifier
|
|
|
|
|
|
.18 (.04)*
|
|
|
Democrat identifier
|
|
|
|
|
|
.20 (.03)*
|
|
|
Knowledgeable
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Republican identifier
|
|
|
|
|
|
.04 (.03)
|
|
|
Democrat identifier
|
|
|
|
|
|
.12 (.03)*
|
|
|
Moral
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Republican identifier
|
|
|
|
|
|
.17 (.03)*
|
|
|
Democrat identifier
|
|
|
|
|
|
.02 (.03)
|
|
|
Cares
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Republican identifier
|
|
|
|
|
|
.22 (.04)*
|
|
|
Democrat identifier
|
|
|
|
|
|
.30 (.04)*
|
|
|
Honest
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Republican identifier
|
|
|
|
|
|
.13 (.03)*
|
|
|
Democrat identifier
|
|
|
|
|
|
.09 (.03)*
|
|
|
Overall feelings
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Republican identifier
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
.31 (.07)*
|
-.14 (.05)*
|
Democrat identifier
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
.17 (.04)*
|
-.41 (.08)*
|
Constant
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-
|
|
Republican identifier
|
-.19 (.07)*
|
-.09 (.06)
|
-.17 (.07)*
|
-.20 (.07)*
|
-.10 (.08)
|
-.04 (.04)
|
.37 (.07)*
|
.38 (.08)*
|
Democrat identifier
|
-.52 (.02)*
|
-.36 (.02)
|
-.43 (.03)*
|
-.57 (.02)*
|
-.40 (.02)*
|
-.20 (.02)*
|
.10 (.03)*
|
.62 (.05)*
|
n= 783, Chi2=.58
RMSEA = .000 (lower bound = .000, upper bound = .036)
Comparative Fit Index=1.00
|
*p<.05 #p<.10
Notes: Coefficients are from structural equation model asymptotic distribution free estimates
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