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Democracies resolve disputes as violent as non-democracies. No mutual respect or common values



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Democracies resolve disputes as violent as non-democracies. No mutual respect or common values.


Rosato 03 (Sebastian, Ph.D. in Political Science and Assistant Professor of Political Science – University of Notre Dame, “The Flawed Logic of Democratic Peace Theory”, The American Political Science Review, American Political Science Association, Vol. 97, No. 4 (Nov., 2003), pp. 589-590, Jstor)
Great Powers. Layne (1994) and Rock (1997) have found further evidence that democracies do not treat each other with trust and respect in their analyses of diplomatic crises involving Britain, France, Germany, and the United States. Layne examines four prominent cases in which rival democracies almost went to war with one another and asks whether the crises were resolved because of mutual trust and respect. His conclusion offers scant support for the normative logic: "In each of these crises, at least one of the democratic states involved was prepared to go to war..... In each of the four crises, war was avoided not because of the 'live and let live' spirit of peaceful dispute resolution at democratic peace theory's core, but because of realist factors" (Layne 1994, 38).7 Similarly, Rock finds little evidence that shared liberal values helped resolve any of the crises between Britain and the United States in the nineteenth century. In addition, his analyses of the turn-of-the-century "great rapprochement" and naval arms control during the 1920s show that even in cases where liberal states resolved potentially divisive issues in a spirit of accommodation, shared liberal values had only a limited effect. In both cases peace was overdetermined and "liberal values and democratic institutions were not the only factors inclining Britain and the United States toward peace, and perhaps not even the dominant ones" (Rock 1997, 146).8 In sum, the trust and respect mechanism does not appear to work as specified. Shared democratic values provide no guarantee that states will both trust and respect one another. Instead, and contrary to the normative logic's claims, when serious conflicts of interest arise between democracies there is little evidence that they will be inclined to accommodate each other's demands or refrain from engaging in hard line policies.

Bad – A2 Trust Other Democracies




Democratic states can’t trust other democratic states – little agreement on foreign democratic status.


Rosato 03 (Sebastian, Ph.D. in Political Science and Assistant Professor of Political Science – University of Notre Dame, “The Flawed Logic of Democratic Peace Theory”, The American Political Science Review, American Political Science Association, Vol. 97, No. 4 (Nov., 2003), p. 592, Jstor)
Elusive Consensus. There is rarely agreement, even among well-informed policymakers, about the democratic status of a foreign power and we are, therefore, unlikely to be able to predict how democracies will classify other states' regime type with a high level of confidence.9 Owen (1997) has examined the views of liberal elites in 10 war-threatening crises involving the United States and another state between 1794 and 1898. In six of the cases, the major political parties in the United States disagreed about the liberal status of France, Britain, Chile, and Spain. In three other cases, these disagreements extended both across and within parties. In only one case, the Spanish American Crisis, was there a consensus within the American elite regarding the liberal status of the foreign power (Table 3). In sum, the evidence from Owen's cases suggests that we are unlikely to be able to predict how states will perceive one another's regime type: Opinion is almost always divided, even for cases that look easy to outside observers. This being the case, the repaired normative logic can only tell us if liberal states will view each other as such after the fact: If they treat each other with trust and respect, then they must have viewed each other as liberal; if they do not, then they must have viewed each other as illiberal.

Democratic trust fails – states get others’ regime type wrong.


Rosato 03 (Sebastian, Ph.D. in Political Science and Assistant Professor of Political Science – University of Notre Dame, “The Flawed Logic of Democratic Peace Theory”, The American Political Science Review, American Political Science Association, Vol. 97, No. 4 (Nov., 2003), pp. 592-593, Jstor)
Inaccurate Assessment. Democracies will also often simply get another state's regime type wrong, thereby lessening our confidence that objectively democratic states will not fight one another. In five of the nine cases where Owen evaluates how other states perceived America, foreign liberal elites either classified the United States as illiberal or were unsure as to its status. In 1873, Spanish liberals, most of whom identified with the Spanish Republican party, disagreed over the status of the United States. All Chilean elites and all Spanish elites, regardless of their party affiliation, regarded the United States as illiberal in the 1890s. Finally, British opinion leaders, who had agreed that the United States was liberal for over a century, were divided over its liberal status in 1895-96. The paradigmatic liberal state was, then, often perceived as anything but. Even more surprising is the fact that as the nineteenth century wore on, and the United States became more liberal by most objective standards, other states increasingly viewed it as illiberal.

Democracies deliberately misinterpret opponents regime type to justify conflict.


Rosato 03 (Sebastian, Ph.D. in Political Science and Assistant Professor of Political Science – University of Notre Dame, “The Flawed Logic of Democratic Peace Theory”, The American Political Science Review, American Political Science Association, Vol. 97, No. 4 (Nov., 2003), p. 593, Jstor)
Regime Type Redefined Not only are perceptions of other regimes often contested or inaccurate, but they are also subject to redefinition, and this redefinition does not always reflect the actual democratic attributes of those states. Oren (1995) conducts an in depth study of the United States' changing relationship with Imperial Germany prior to World War I and finds that American opinion leaders stopped defining Germany as a democracy as the two countries' strategic relationship began to deteriorate. This observation leads him to conclude that democracy is not a determinant as much as it is a product of America's foreign relations: "The reason we do not to fight 'our kind' is not that 'likeness' has a great effect on war propensity, but rather that we from time to time subtly redefine our kind to keep our self image consistent with our friends' attributes and inconsistent with those of our adversaries" (Oren 1995, 147). In other words, contrary to the expectations of the normative logic, perception of regime type is an outcome rather than a causal factor. Liberal states appear especially prone to this practice of reinterpreting who should be trusted and respected. In the nineteenth century, non-European peoples could be put under autocratic imperial rule for their own good. In the early twentieth century, as Oren has noted, the bar was raised higher and Imperial Germany was judged worthy of neither trust nor respect. By the end of the century, even liberal democratic Japan could not count on unquestioning American friendship. In each case, prestige, security concerns, or economic interests shaped perceptions of regime type.10 These examples raise serious problems for any causal logic based on perceptions. Discerning whether perceptions matter inevitably becomes a question of sifting through the statements of policymakers and opinion leaders during a crisis or war. At the same time, public figures will try to distinguish their own state from the enemy in these situations, both for their own cognitive consistency and to rally the public. Since people in the modern world generally identify themselves as members of a nation state, these distinctions will tend to focus on political structures. Scholars will therefore always be able to find "evidence" that the other state was not perceived to be sufficiently "democratic" as leaders go about demonizing the enemy. I am not arguing that this represents a misreading of the evidenceperceptions of another state are bound to change in crisis situations-I am only suggesting that these perceptions are caused by factors other than the objective nature of foreign regimes.




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