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Obama popularity down from BP oil spill



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Obama popularity down from BP oil spill


Abbas 6/30/10 ( Raheel, blogger @ All the buzz in News,

BP, will resonate in US mid-term elections, http://www.buzztab.com/latest-news/bp-will-resonate-in-us-mid-term-elections/


BP oil spill disaster has given rise to a political row in US in the wake of upcoming mid-term elections. President Barack Obama has said that Republican Party is trying to use the BP Oil Spill as political weapon against his government in the upcoming mid-term elections. Interestingly a recent Gallup poll suggests the same as 48% of the Americans disapprove their president’s efforts during the BP oil spill disaster while 44% of them think that their president was moving in right direction with right pace. Well it seems the very word BP would resonate in the upcoming American mid-term elections and both Republicans and democrats would try to score points on this issue that may change the political history of America.


AT: Too far right




Right is not too conservative – left is too liberal – polls show


The Economist 7/8 (The mid-term elections Waiting to thump the Democrats, http://www.economist.com/node/16541619?story_id=16541619&fsrc=rss)
One hope on the Democratic side is that the conservative “tea-party” movement will drive the Republicans too far to the right for the taste of mainstream voters. But there is not much evidence of that in the polling. Indeed, the number of voters telling Gallup’s pollsters that the Republicans are too conservative has fallen since 2008 from 43% to 40%, and the proportion who think them about right has grown from 38% to 41%. Meanwhile the share of voters who consider the Democrats “too liberal” has risen from 39% to 49%. That cannot be good news for Ms Pelosi and her anxious colleagues in the House.

Econ k2 Midterms


Voters don’t care about issues

Paul Krugman, 7/18/10 – Op-Ed columnist for the New York Times (July 18, “The Pundit Delusion”, http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/19/opinion/19krugman.html?_r=2&hp=&pagewanted=print),
Unfortunately, however, the evidence suggests that issues don’t matter either, in part because voters are often deeply ill informed. Suppose, for example, that you believed claims that voters are more concerned about the budget deficit than they are about jobs. (That’s not actually true, but never mind.) Even so, how much credit would you expect Democrats to get for reducing the deficit? None. In 1996 voters were asked whether the deficit had gone up or down under Bill Clinton. It had, in fact, plunged — but a plurality of voters, and a majority of Republicans, said that it had risen. There’s no point berating voters for their ignorance: people have bills to pay and children to raise, and most don’t spend their free time studying fact sheets. Instead, they react to what they see in their own lives and the lives of people they know. Given the realities of a bleak employment picture, Americans are unhappy — and they’re set to punish those in office.


Economy will be the key issue in the midterms – multiple reasons

Beschloss 7/11/10 (Morris R, international economist and financial writer. Economy will play key role in mid-term election outcomes, http://www.mydesert.com/article/20100711/COLUMNS03/7100351/Economy-will-play-key-role-in-mid-term-election-outcomes



With critical mid-term congressional elections only four months away, economic issues are emerging as the dominant factor in determining whether major national economic policies will be forcefully challenged in the upcoming elections. Never have key economic issues played such a make-or-break role in a national election that could change the philosophical direction of the United States. Although the venerable 1980s House Speaker Tip O'Neill, D-Mass., once defined all House and even Senatorial elections as locally-driven, national economic differences between the major political parties will frame the debate this fall: Unemployment is getting worse. The U.S. labor force has shrunk by 652,000 in May, the second largest fall since 1965. This reflects the total abandonment of potential job opportunities by increasing numbers. That's why the 9.5 percent unemployment rate is misleading. The runaway deficit and resultant debt. America has never been caught in the caldron of such an explosive debt growth, threatening the U.S. economy with unsustainable consequences. The party in power will be on the defensive in justifying the continuation of this ongoing trend. Health care justification. The virtual government takeover of health care, which a majority of Americans oppose, will have to be justified by its proponents — all members of Congress who voted for it. Its constitutionality is now winding its way through the judicial process, led by a number of states' attorneys general. Taxes. The largest federal tax increase in U.S. history, due to kick off in January, is generating a gathering storm of anger at all levels of the income spectrum.

***ECONOMY***




Growth good – generic




Studies show that economic growth eventually helps the economy


Barret 97 (Scott, Professor of Environmental Economics and International Political Economy, Director of the International Policy program, and Director of the Global Health and Foreign Policy Initiative at SAIS, “Is Economic Growth Good for the Environment?”, http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/119169957/abstract)
Is economic growth good or bad? One reason for thinking it may be bad is that growth may be associated with an increase in environmental degradation. New empirical evidence, however, indicates that growth need not harm the environment. It suggests that, though environmental quality may worsen with growth in poor countries, it eventually improves with growth once countries become sufficiently rich. Figure 1 presents an example from the literature. It shows that sulphur dioxide emissions per capita first increase with real income per capita (corrected for purchasing power) and later decrease. Whether this new evidence endorses the "growth is good" or the "growth is bad" view is now a subject of much debate.




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