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GOP will win majority – enthusiasm



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GOP will win majority – enthusiasm


The Economist 7/8 (The mid-term elections Waiting to thump the Democrats, http://www.economist.com/node/16541619?story_id=16541619&fsrc=rss)
A survey published by the Pew Research Centre on July 1st found that 56% of Republican voters were more enthusiastic about voting this year, the highest proportion since the Republican triumph of 1994. More Republicans than Democrats (64% to 50%) say they are playing close attention to election news. True, the same poll found that under-30s favoured the Democrats by a wide margin (57% to 32%), but only half of these were absolutely certain to vote. Among over-50s, on the other hand, the Republicans enjoy an 52% to 41% lead, but about eight of ten of these older voters said they were absolutely certain to vote. For the Democrats this is an ominous change: in the mid-terms of 2006, they held the same lead among young people but a 14-point lead among older voters too. The enthusiasm gap exists even among the growing proportion of voters who choose to register as independents. Pew finds that 44% of this group intend to vote Republican and 36% Democrat, and that 77% of the Republican-leaning independents are “absolutely certain” to vote, compared with 62% of those who intend to vote Democrat. Gallup says its polls show a bigger enthusiasm gap between the parties than it has measured in any previous mid-term, including the 1994 landslide.

Dems will lose – economy, unemployment, deficits, and military

LA Times, 7/7/10 (Andrew Malcolm, July 7, “Crucial independent voters abandoning Obama, now under 40%, lowest ever”, http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2010/07/independents-abandoning-obama-gallup-poll.html)
Two new polls this morning augur ill for President Barack Obama and his fellow Democrats who control Congress. The worst -- from Gallup -- finds that for the first time since Obama took the oath, his support among independents, a key voter segment in his decisive 2008 coalition election win, has fallen below 40%. The new tracking finds that Obama's support among all voter segments has declined in the past year, but nowhere more than among independents. Only 38% now support him, an 18-point drop from 52 weeks ago, when polls first began showing the nation's rapidly-growing population of independent voters peeling off, as Obama relentlessly pushed his healthcare plan and ignored polls saying jobs and the economy were uppermost on voters' minds. In that same time span, support for the Democrat has fallen 9 points among Democrats (from 90% to 81%) and 8 points among Republicans (from 20% to 12%). Collectively, only 46% of Americans approve of the president's job performance, just 1 point above his worst approval of 45%. Obama's approval has not been above 50% since February. Despite his professed success with the healthcare legislation, Obama is confronting a stubbornly sluggish economic recovery, continuing high unemployment, growing concerns over deficits and spending, impatience among some supporters such as gays and Hispanics and mounting casualties in his ongoing Afghanistan military campaign. Other recent presidents suffered similar low ratings in their second year -- Jimmy Carter (40%), Ronald Reagan (42%) and Bill Clinton (43%). And each of those presidents' parties lost substantial numbers of congressional seats in the ensuing midterm elections. George W. Bush's experience ran counter to that pattern; his Republican Party actually gained seats in the 2002 midterm elections, the first time that had happened since Democrat Franklin Delano Roosevelt's first midterm election.

GOP Win – Independents key



GOP will win – better turnout and independents support

Jeffrey Jones, 7/1/10 – editor of the Gallup Poll (July 1, “Independent Voters Favor GOP in 2010 Election Tracking”, http://www.gallup.com/poll/141086/Independent-Voters-Favor-GOP-2010-Election-Tracking.aspx?version=print),
PRINCETON, NJ -- By an average 10 percentage-point margin since March, 45% to 35%, independent registered voters have consistently preferred the Republican to the Democrat when asked which congressional candidate they would vote for in their district. Independents' preference for Republicans has been generally consistent over this time, with the gap in favor of Republicans increasing slightly since March, from 8 to 12 points. Currently about one in five independent registered voters are undecided or prefer a candidate from outside the two major parties, suggesting the potential for movement in these numbers between now and Election Day. These data are based on monthly averages of Gallup Daily tracking, including interviews with more than 6,000 registered voters each month. Typically, Republican and Democratic identifiers show a high degree of loyalty to their party's candidate in voting for Congress. Since March, an average of 92% of Democrats and 94% of Republicans have said they would vote for their party's candidate if the election were held today. As such, the voting preferences of independents are a key component in determining overall preferences leading up to Election Day, and the eventual outcome of the election. Another key component is turnout, which tends to be highest among Republican identifiers and lowest among independents. Overall, Gallup's generic ballot has shown a virtual tie among all registered voters since March, with an average of 46% saying they would vote Republican and 45% Democratic. The Democratic Party remains competitive with the GOP despite the independent tilt toward the Republican Party because more registered voters identify as Democrats (35%) than as Republicans (31%) in the March-June data.

Dems will lose – unpopular with independents

Jeffrey Jones, 7/1/10 – editor of the Gallup Poll (July 1, “Independent Voters Favor GOP in 2010 Election Tracking”, http://www.gallup.com/poll/141086/Independent-Voters-Favor-GOP-2010-Election-Tracking.aspx?version=print),
The Role of President Obama Though the president is not on the ballot in midterm election years, he certainly is a major factor in many voters' vote decisions, as evidenced by the typical pattern in which the president's party loses congressional seats in midterms. Evaluations of the president could be especially important among independents, whose congressional voting preferences are not anchored by party loyalty. At this point, dissatisfaction with Obama appears to be a reason independents favor the Republican Party this year. Since March, 42% of independent registered voters, on average, have approved of the job Obama is doing as president, while 51% have disapproved. (This is a slightly more negative assessment than is true for all independents, among whom 44% approve and 45% disapprove of Obama.) Independent voters who disapprove of Obama's job performance say by 71% to 12% that they would vote for the Republican candidate in their district if the election were held today. In contrast, independent voters who approve of Obama favor the Democratic candidate, but by a smaller 63% to 17% margin. The vote patterns of independent approvers and disapprovers have been stable from month to month. Bottom Line A key to winning elections for the Democratic and Republican Parties is to appeal to independent voters. Thus far in the 2010 election campaign, Republicans have attracted greater support from independents than have Democrats. This may in part be the result of independent voters' greater dissatisfaction than satisfaction with the job President Obama is doing. Independents' preference for the Republican congressional candidate in their district has been consistent this year. Still, one in five independents remain undecided. The preferences of these voters, as well as which independents turn out on Election Day, will have a major impact on the direction and magnitude of seat change in the midterm elections.



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