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GOP Win - Senate

Dems will lose the majority – anti-incumbent sentiments

Chris Cillizza, 7/13/10 – political reporter for the Washington Post (July 13, “Americans ready to "look around" in the fall election”,

Six in ten Americans say they are likely to look around for someone new in the fall election according to the latest Washington Post/ABC national poll, an ominous sign for incumbents with the 2010 midterms less than four months off. Sixty percent of all adults -- and 62 percent of registered voters -- said they preferred to look around at their options while 25 percent of adults and 26 percent of registered voters said they planned to cast a vote to re-elect their incumbent. While the numbers don't represent significant change from the Post/ABC June poll -- 29 percent re-elect/60 percent look around -- they do signal a sustained disinterest among the public to simply default to their incumbent. Compare where the electorate stands on the question to how they felt in the immediate run-up to the 1994 election -- the first midterm of Bill Clinton's presidency that saw Republicans regain control of the House for the first time in four decades. In a late October Post/ABC poll that year, 37 percent of registered voters said they planned to vote to re-elect their incumbent while 56 percent said they were looking around. Other data points in the latest Post/ABC survey make clear the volatility within the electorate -- thanks is large part to worry and unhappiness about the economy. Just one in ten described the state of the economy as either "excellent" or "good" while just one in four adults said that they believed the economy was getting better. Those numbers -- combined with an erosion of confidence in President Barack Obama -- should rightly worry Democrats who are seeking to preserve their House and Senate majorities this fall. While voter unrest doesn't fall more heavily on either party in the Post/ABC poll, Democrats control a significantly larger chunk of seats in both chambers so the more voters express a willingness to try something new, the more it hurts Democrats.

GOP will win – only need 40 seats out of 60 to win majority

CBS News, 7/11/10 (July 11, “Gibbs: Democrats Could Lose House”,;contentBody)
(AP) President Barack Obama's party could lose its House majority in this fall's elections, his spokesman said Sunday, perhaps trying to jolt Democratic voters with the specter of GOP lawmakers rolling back White House policies. "I think there's no doubt there are enough seats in play that could cause Republicans to gain control. There's no doubt about that," press secretary Robert Gibbs told NBC's "Meet the Press." Democrats now hold a 255-178 edge in the House, with two vacancies in the 435-member chamber. Anywhere from 40 to perhaps 60 House seats could be competitive by the fall. Republicans would need to take back about 40 seats to slip into the majority, placing the current GOP leader, Ohio Rep. John Boehner, in line to replace Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., as speaker.

Republicans will reach 218 –study by Abramowitz proves

The Economist 7/8 (The mid-term elections Waiting to thump the Democrats,
A nice indication of how close a race it is comes from a study by Alan Abramowitz, a political scientist at Emory University. He calculated last month that the Republicans are on track to win 42 House seats currently held by Democrats and lose just three of their own seats. That would give them a net gain of 39, which by coincidence is exactly how many they need to gain control. Nancy Pelosi would then have to surrender the speaker’s gavel she won in 2006 to the Republicans’ John Boehner, who would preside over a majority of 218 to 217tiny, but enough to make life wretched for the Obama White House.

GOP will win back the House - multiple analysts agree

The Economist 7/8 (The mid-term elections Waiting to thump the Democrats,
Mr Abramowitz’s projection is only one of many to suggest that the election is tight. Although the analysis of his Cook Political Report still puts the Democrats’ losses between 30 and 40, Charlie Cook, an expert on the horse-race, says his “gut” tells him that the Democrats will lose “a few more than 40”. “Earth to House Democrats,” Bill Galston, a senior fellow in the Democrat-leaning Brookings Institution, wrote recently: “It’s time to press the panic button.”

GOP Win - House

GOP win back the House – Obama’s approval rating

The Economist 7/8 (The mid-term elections Waiting to thump the Democrats,
Comparisons with the wave that saw the Republicans take the House for the first time in 40 years at the 1994 mid-terms are inescapable. Like Bill Clinton then, Barack Obama has seen his approval rating shrivel to under 50%; our YouGov poll has him at just 43%, though the average of all such polls is three points higher. People are once again deeply dissatisfied with both the performance of the Democratic Congress and the direction of the country. Mr Abramowitz notes that fewer of the seats the Democrats are defending this time are in marginal or Republican-leaning districts, and fewer are in seats where the incumbent is not running. This should make the Democrats’ majority a bit easier to defend than in 1994, when they lost 54 seats. But they still risk being overwhelmed.

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