Dems will shock everyone and keep majority – Biden says so
Ogle 7/18/10 (Alex, freelance journalist, Biden says Democrats will 'shock' everyone in midterms, http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jB2FhVbAaGzdHa1PofeVW0DadAOg)
WASHINGTON — Vice President Joe Bidenbrushed aside suggestions on Sunday that Democrats will suffer big losses in November
midterm elections, vowing that Barack Obama's governing party will "shock the heck out of everybody.""I don't think the losses are going to be bad at all," Biden said. "I think we're going to shock the heck out of everybody." Biden said he was "confident when people take a look at what has happened since we've taken office in November and comparing it to the alternative, we're going to be in great shape." The vice president said he believes the Obama administration will get credit from voters for helping guide the economy out of recessionand passing key legislation on health care and financial reform.
Dems will hold onto majority – Obama criticized the GOP about lack of action
Kevin Bogardus, 7/17/10 (17 7, “Obama slams GOP for stalling jobless benefits”, http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/109359-obama-slams-gop-for-stalling-jobless-benefits )
The president saidin his address that the Senate has failed three times to extend unemployment benefits with Republicans blocking an up-or-down vote on the bill. Obama said the extension of unemployment benefits should be not controversial and has been treated as a necessary emergency expenditure during economic crises by lawmakers in both parties in the past. “Suddenly, Republican leaders want to change that. They say we shouldn’t provide unemployment insurance because it costs money,” Obama said. “So after years of championing policies that turned a record surplus into a massive deficit, including a tax cut for the wealthiest Americans, they’ve finally decided to make their stand on the backs of the unemployed.”Obama’s harsh criticism of the GOP is the latest round in an escalating war of words between him and Republican leaders. As the mid-termelections have drawn closer, the president has been more willing to call out Republicans, especially House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio), for their votes against his legislative agenda. Republicans have responded in kind with Boehner and others saying the White House would add too much to the national deficit with their proposed spending plans.
Dem Majority – GOP falling
Dems will keep majority – GOP has lower approval ratings
Joe Peyronnin, 7/16/10 – NYU Journalism Professor (July 16, “Midterm Referendum”, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/joe-peyronnin/midterm-referendum_b_648878.html),
Nonetheless, a stubbornly high unemployment rate and slowly recovering economy, a burgeoning national debt, a catastrophic oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico and two wars, Afghanistan and Iraq, continue to weigh heavily on the Obama presidency. And Republicans are doing all they can to focus the attention of Americans on these issues despite the fact that they had a major hand in creating the mess. As a consequence, Democrats face the real prospect of losing control of the Houseof Representatives during this fall's Midterm elections. Of course, the party in power usually does suffer loses during these elections, but many Democrats who won in Republican districts because of Obama are now vulnerable. The Republican agenda is to make this coming election a referendum on President Obama. For sure the president's approval ratings are down. But the Republican Party's approval ratings are significantly lower. And it is no surprise because, other than saying no to health care reform, to financial reform and apologizing to BP for the way it has been treated by the White House, it appears that their big idea is to extend the Bush tax cuts to the wealthy. They do not offer a "Contract with America" that helped them win the 1994 Midterms.
Dems will keep majority – GOP is less popular
Robinson, 7/16/10 – Pulitzer Prize-winning columnist with the Washington Post Writers Group (Eugene, July 16, “Democrats Can Stop GOP Blowout”, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/printpage/?url=http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/07/16/needing_a_playbook_not_a_funk_106340.html),
I'm of the school that contends White House press secretary Robert Gibbs did his party a favor by publicly stating the obvious:Control of the House of Representatives is in play. I'm also of the opinion that the Republican Party's prospects aren't quite as sunny as some observers believe. But Gibbs' candor seemed to jolt Democrats out of their sour lassitude in which they had been mired. The party has now shifted into something resembling a sour frenzy, but that's an improvement. One reason I'm not so confident of a Republican blowout in the fall is that while polls clearly show that the country is in an anti-incumbent mood, there's also considerable evidence that people see the GOP as part of the problem, not part of the solution. A new Washington Post poll, for example, showed that 58 percent of voters have "just some" confidence, or even less, in President Obama'sleadership, and that 68 percent were similarly doubtful about the ability of congressional Democrats to lead. But 72 percent had little or no faith in congressional Republicans -- which suggests to me that the GOP has work to do before its leaders start picking out new office suites in the Capitol. Another reason for caution is that the Republican Party is outof step with the American public on so many issues. Americans want to see unemployment benefits extended. They want tougher financial regulation, complete with consumer protections. Even health care reform, which the GOP succeeded in painting as the Apocalypse, becomes more popular as the months pass and somehow the world does not end. It's true that on some issues, Republicans hold the more popular position. On illegal immigration, for example, most Americans agree with the GOP's get-tough, border-first approach. But Latino voters are passionate in supporting Obama's policy of seeking comprehensive immigration reform, including a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants who are already here. If Democrats can harness this passion, they can hold on to House and Senate seats that otherwise might slip away -- and, in the process, potentially cement the support of the nation's largest minority group for decades to come.