Sesno 7 – 16 [Frank is Director of the School of Media and Public Affairs at The George Washington University, “Gulf Oil Slick Makes Climate Negotiations Slippery, Says Utility Exec”
"Traditionally, American environmentalism wins its biggest victories after some important piece of American environment is poisoned, exterminated or set on fire. An oil spill and a burning river in 1969 led to new anti-pollution laws in the 1970s. The Exxon Valdez disaster helped create an Earth Day revival in 1990 and sparked a landmark clean-air law. "But this year, the worst oil spill in U.S. history -- and, before that, the worst coal-mining disaster in 40 years -- haven't put the same kind of drive into the debate over climate change and fossil-fuel energy." A few weeks ago we talked to John Pemberton of Southern Company, who says that instead of furthering the debate over a climate bill, the oil spill as stalled it.The emotional power of the disaster will make congressional members less likely to compromise and take "small steps forward": "We still have a long term energy debate in congress that is not going to solved with short term political decisions." The Clean Water Act was passed 28 months after the river fire, 33 months after the oil spill, so the political fallout of the oil spill still has time to develop. Maybe a few months of cleaning up the damage and trying to make things right in the gulf will help congress decide whether or not to move forward with changing the way we use energy.
Climate will pass – compromises will be made
Goodman and Gonzalez 6 - 30 [Amy and John are both the creators and editors of democracy now, "Kerry, Lieberman Offer to Further Weaken Climate Bill"
The bipartisan sponsors of the main Senate climate and energy bill say they’re now willing to further weaken their measure to win Republican support. Senators John Kerry and Joseph Lieberman made the pledge Tuesday following a meeting with President Obama and other lawmakers at the White House. Kerry said he and Lieberman are prepared to scale back their bill on top of initial compromises. Sen. John Kerry: "We believe we have compromised significantly, but we’re prepared to compromise further. And we are looking for some Republicans and possibly some members of our own caucus who will meet us at that place of compromise. We are prepared to scale back the reach of our legislation in order to try to find that place of compromise because we believe, and I think the president believes very strongly, what is important is for America to get started."
A2: Economy turn
APA will reduce the budget – only a risk it helps the economy
Sorensen 7 – 7 [Adam, “How Much Would Cap and Trade Cost?”
In a preliminary look at the American Power Act—the climate legislation that has been put forward by Senators John Kerry and Joseph Lieberman—the CBO found that the bill would actually reduce the budget deficit by about $19 billion over the 2011 to 2020 period. The CBO estimates that auctions of carbon allowances under the bill—which requires companies to essentially pay for the right to emit carbon dixoide—would raise government revenue by about $751 billion, more than bill would hike government spending through incentives for nuclear power, tax credits for energy efficiency and research and technology for new energy.
Climate scandal destroys any chance of climate legislation
Baker 7 – 19 [David is a staff writer for SF chronicle, “'Climategate' fallout may impact legislation”
Five investigations into the "Climategate" scandal have now cleared a group of scientists accused of twisting data in an effort to prove the world is getting warmer. But many environmentalists and climate researchers fear the damage has already been done. "Despite multiple denials from people in the field, this has really hurt," said Daniel Kammen, a UC Berkeley professor who contributes to reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The accuracy of the IPCC's reports, long considered the most authoritative on global warming, came under fire during Climategate. "Even though the science of climate change hasn't changed, the public perception of it has," Kammen said. "You have less than 50 percent of people strongly believing in something that 99.99 percent of climate scientists agree on." Climategate's lingering effects could play a role in the debate over global warming legislation, both in Congress and in California. The U.S. Senate is expected to take up an energy and climate change bill in the next two weeks. And in California, voters this fall will decide whether to suspend the state's landmark global warming law, AB32. "In general, I think the scandal has made the opponents of energy-rationing legislation stronger and more confident," said Myron Ebell, director of energy and global warming policy for the Competitive Enterprise Institute think tank. Ebell, who for years has been one of the fiercest critics of global warming science, doubts that Climategate by itself changed any votes in the Senate. But the scandal may have solidified skepticism about climate science among the public, he said. That would make any global warming bill harder for Senate Democrats to pass. "The American public opposes policies that are going to raise their energy prices," Ebell said. "And I just don't see how they can get around that." A Gallup poll released in March found that 48 percent of Americans believe the seriousness of climate change is usually exaggerated, up from 41 percent in 2009. But other recent polls say a majority of Americans still consider global warming a major problem and want the federal government to address it. A survey released in June by Stanford University Professor Jon Krosnick found that 74 percent of Americans believe the climate probably grew warmer in the past century. While that figure is down from 84 percent in 2007, Krosnick attributed the decline to short-term changes in the weather, not Climategate. Indeed, only 9 percent of the people surveyed had heard about the hacked e-mail messages. "At the end of the day, I feel people still see what's happening - they're seeing the heat waves, they're seeing the fires, they know the ice is thinning," said Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif. "The last decade, we know, is the warmest on record, and no e-mails are going to change that." Still, environmentalists fear that Climategate will make passing federal global warming legislation, already a difficult task, that much tougher. "If members of Congress believe that - because of the coverage of so-called Climategate - the public is less concerned about the impacts of global warming, some of the senators who are on the fence may feel less compelled to vote for legislation that curbs global warming pollution," said Dan Lashof, director of the Natural Resources Defense Council's climate center. "That's the real danger in this."