Mexico: pt. I i. Mexico in the Latin American Context

MEXICO: pt. I

• I. Mexico in the Latin American Context

• II. The Emergence of the PRI (1876-1940)

• III. The PRI & The Mexican “Miracle” (1940-82)

• IV. The End of an Era (1982-88)

I. Mexico in the Latin American Context

• A. Latin American trends in the 20^th century:

• political instability

• visible military role in politics

• erratic economic growth

• B. Mexican exceptionalism:

• no coup in 70+ years

• low military involvement in politics

• steady (6%) growth during 1941-81

• 1-party rule for 71 years

• C. Questions from a Comparative View:

• What drove Mexican exceptionalism?

• Will Mexico maintain its exceptionalism after the PRI’s defeat in the 2000 elections? Why or why not?

II. The Emergence of the PRI (1876-1940)

• A. The Porfiriato (1876-1911):

• authoritarian modernization under Díaz

(GDP growth rate 2x population growth rate)

• BUT,

• middle class out of politics

• more landless peasants than ever before

• B. The Mexican Revolution (1911-1917)

• 2 revolutions fought simultaneously

• POLITICAL: “no reelection” (Francisco Madero)

• SOCIAL: “land for all”
  (Emiliano Zapata)

• social, not socialist

• Constitution of 1917:

• re: POLITICAL REVOLUTION:

• U.S. system w/o reelection & w/ strong president

• re: SOCIAL JUSTICE:

• land reform

• labor laws

• government ownership of natural resources

II. (cont.)

• C. The Rise of Plutarco Calles (1917-34)

• More generals become presidents:

• Venustiano Carranza (1917-20)

• Murdered in 1920

• Alvaro Obregón (1920-24)

• Murdered after his reelection in 1928

• Plutarco Calles (1924-28)

• PNR established in 1929:

• elite party w/ Calles as “jefe máximo”

• effort to avoid future assassinations & strife

• D. Lázaro Cárdenas (1934-40)

• Mobilized & organized masses

(incl. militia)

• SOCIOECONOMIC REFORMS:

• land reform

• wage hikes & union rights

• social services

• nationalization of oil & railroads

• MASS PARTY created:

• PNR becomes PRM w/ CNC, CTM, military, & “popular” branches

• w/ diverse support & conflicting policy priorities

• PRESIDENT rules, uses dedazo to pick successor, & steps down

III. The PRI & The Mexican “Miracle” (1940-82)

• A. CORPORATISM:

• inclusive cooptation

• selective coercion

• B. PATRON-CLIENTELISM:

• camarillas (factions) compete w/in PRI

• favor-trading is key

• C. EXECUTIVE CENTRALISM:

• president can remove governors

• and informally enjoys ability to remove judges

• has a large majority w/in a weak legislature

• approves all PRI candidates at all levels

• D. PENDULUM THEORY:

• if you stay in, you'll get your shot...

• E. STATE CAPITALISM:

• state control over key resources & sectors along w/ protection led ISI successes:

• 6% average annual GDP growth for 40 years

• low inflation during 1941-1970

• NEGATIVE SIDE of Mexican “miracle”:

• rising inequality & continuing absolute poverty

IV. The End of an Era (1982-1988)

• A. The Debt Crisis:
  On 8/13/82 Mexico announces it cannot make current payments due on its debt

• OPEC price hike of 1978-79

slowdown of major economies

flow of money into banks (petrodollars)

loans shopped to developing countries

• loans to oil exporters to exploit windfall

• loans to net importers to cover higher oil costs

• When oil prices fall in 1982 and world interest rates on adjustable loans, Mexico & other debtor countries are in trouble

• B. Role of Conditionality: from Austerity to Structural Adjustment

New loans from IMF & World Bank tied to policy changes reducing public spending (austerity) & opening the economy (structural adjustment)

• new private loans were seen as more likely upon the approval of IMF & World Bank loans

• new investment might follow

• loans provide NEW $ for government

• to promote growth, fund more selective social programs, & reward supporters

• C. Intra-PRI conflict amid shift to market:

• changes balance of power from machine “políticos” to bureaucratic “técnicos” as the pendulum stops

• Aug. 1986: center-left faction of PRI forms ¨Democratic Current¨ to push party away from free market

• De la Madrid makes it clear that he will name another market-oriented technocrat

• Oct. 1987: the Democratic Current leaves the PRI

• Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas & the FDN coalition form viable challenge in controversial 1988 election

• official PRI victory (50.7% v. 31.1%) amid major scandal & doubt

• PRI did admit Senate losses and took only 52% of the lower house seats