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Indo-Pak War

No Impact

Indo-Pak war doesn’t escalate – They won’t use nuclear weapons

Haniffa, 4-6 – [Aziz Haniffa, Graduate from George Washington University, Correspondent with Rediff News, 4-6-2015, Pak general: No chances of India-Pakistan war,] Jeong

We have worked to create road blocks in the path of those who thought that there was space for conventional war despite Pakistan's nuclear weapons.' 'Pakistan's nuclear weapons programme is not open-ended and aligned with India only.' 'In this unstable regional environment, one nuclear power is trying to teach lessons to another nuclear power through the medium of small arms and mortar shells on the Line of Control, and bluster.' 'A historic opportunity of a lifetime beckons the leaderships of India and Pakistan to grasp, sit together and explore the possibilities of conflict resolution.' Lieutenant General Khalid Kidwai(retd), who headed Pakistan's Strategic Plans Division for over 15 years and is adviser to the country's National Command, said his country has blocked the avenues for serious military operations by India by introducing a variety of tactical nuclear weapons in its arsenal. General Kidwai, one of Pakistan's most decorated generals, argued that tactical nuclear weapons in Pakistan's arsenal made nuclear war with India less likely, adding, "I am fond of calling them weapons of peace -- the option of war is foreclosed." The general was speaking at the Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference in Washington, DC. "For 15 years, I and my colleagues in the SPD worked for deterrence to be strengthened in South Asia comprehensively so as to prevent war, to deter aggression, and thereby for peace, howsoever uneasy, to prevail," General Kidwai added. "We have," General Kidwai said, "worked to create road blocks in the path of those who thought that there was space for conventional war despite nuclear weapons of Pakistan." "By introducing a variety of tactical nuclear weapons in Pakistan's inventory, and in the strategic stability debate," he reiterated, "we have blocked the avenues for serious military operations by the other side." "The naivete of finding space for limited conventional war despite the proven nuclear capabilities of both sides went so far as to translate the thinking into an offensive doctrine -- the Cold Start Doctrine -- equivalent to a pre-programmed, pre-determined shooting from the hip posture, in quick time, commencing at the tactical level, graduating rapidly to the operational-strategic level, strangely oblivious of the nuclear Armageddon it could unleash in the process." the general said, targeting the Indian Army's Cold Start doctrine. "It clearly was not thought through," General Kidwai felt. "It was quite surreal when Kidwai was clinically talking about the needed range of Pakistan's nuclear weapons to cover entire Indian land mass," one observer at the conference pointed out, "particularly vis-a-vis the Shaheen-3 with its 2,750 kilometres range, sufficient to hit the Andaman and Nicobar islands, which many believe may be developed as India's military bases." General Kidwai strongly defended the Nasr 'Shoot and Scoot' system as "a defence response to the offensive Indian Cold Start posture." When asked by Peter Lavoy, the moderator of the discussion and the newly-minted senior director for South Asian Affairs at the National Security Council, if Pakistan "considered the political impact of long-range nuclear weapons on non-Indian targets," General Kidwai shot back, "Did India and the other nuclear countries do so too?" Asked if Pakistan's nuclear weapons programme would ever stop expanding, General Kidwai again invoked India, saying, "It is not open-ended and aligned with India only.

MAD ensures there isn’t a risk of Nuclear War

Haniffa, 4-6 – [Aziz Haniffa, Graduate from George Washington University, Correspondent with Rediff News, 4-6-2015, Pak general: No chances of India-Pakistan war,] Jeong

"The two realities of today's South Asian strategic situation are, one, notwithstanding the growing conventional asymmetries, the development and possession of sufficient numbers and varieties of nuclear weapons by both India and Pakistan has made war as an instrument of policy near-redundant," the general added. "The tried and tested concept of MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) has ensured that." "There was," General Kidwai said, "a time in the aftermath of the nuclear tests of 1998, when some people unwisely experimented with the idea that despite the nuclear overhang in South Asia, there was space for limited conventional war and therefore, one nuclear power might be able to overwhelm another nuclear power." "It could be attributed to an inability to grasp the changed strategic environments of a nuclearised South Asia -- a learning curve perhaps," he said. "Besides being dangerous thinking, it was also naive as the experience of the last 17 years has shown -- the idea didn't work in the escalation of 2001-2002 nor during the tensions of 2008 nor is it likely to work in the future," the general argued. Secondly, he pointed out that "the historic coincidence of the near simultaneous emergence of two strong democratically elected governments in India and Pakistan with the advantages of comfortable majorities and the factor of reasonable time at their disposal to address longstanding issues with a sense and understanding of history. This has never happened before." "These then are the two self-evident realities or givens of the South Asian situation today," he said, and noted, "When we look at the linkage of the two realities, it would make it seem that this just might be the historic opportunity of a lifetime waiting for the two leaderships to grasp, sit together, explore the possibilities of conflict resolution and, in a supreme statesman-like act, go for it, in a manner that all parties to the conflict end up on the winning side." "No zero sum games, no oneupmanship," he said, and declared, "History and circumstance beckon. Whether history can be grasped remains to be seen." General Kidwai could not resist throwing in the Kashmir imbroglio and taking pot shots at the US and the international community for ignoring Pakistan's entreaties to take up this issue and put pressure on India. "Unfortunately those who say that conflict resolution alone will lead to true peace and stability leading to economic development are dismissed as revisionists -- as if seeking resolution to conflict was unnatural and nations should learn to live with conflicts and the status quo," he added. "In this unstable regional environment," General Kidwai said, targeting India again, "one nuclear power is trying to teach lessons to another nuclear power through the medium of small arms and mortar shells on the Kashmir Line of Control, and bluster." "Well-meaning nudges from well-meaning friends would be most helpful in the larger interest of international peace and stability in a region dubbed as a nuclear flashpoint," he said, and warned, "A hands-off approach, will be neither here nor there and, of course, the fleeting opportunity of history would have slipped." The general also criticised the US for "one-sided and discriminatory overtures" in South Asia. "My submission to friends who want to be helpful -- please note the inadvisability of aggravating the existing delicate strategic balance in a troubled South Asia by one sided and discriminatory overtures, he added." "Discriminatory approach on issues like the Nuclear Suppliers Group exemption and NSG membership," he asserted, "is already proving to be counter-productive, and it will never be acceptable to Pakistan -- and will in no way contribute toward peace and stability." The general -- who supervised the safety of Pakistan's nuclear weapons for many years -- acknowledged that "something I know worries the international community all the time -- the safety and security of Pakistan's nuclear weapons in the disturbed security environment of our region." "For the last 15 years," he asserted, "Pakistan has taken its nuclear security obligations seriously. We understand the consequences of complacency." "There is no complacency," General Kidwai claimed. "We have invested heavily in terms of money, manpower, equipment, weapons, training, preparedness and smart site security solutions." "I say with full responsibility that nuclear security in Pakistan is a non-issue."

No risk of conflict – economic cooperation

Daily Times, 5-27 – [Daily Times, 5-27-2015, Pakistan-India relations,] Jeong

Pakistan, May 27 -- This article is an attempt to understand Pakistan-India relations, contemporary developments, challenges and opportunities with special focus on the period after the Kargil War. This study was conducted in the light of the Rational Choice Theoretical Framework of Douglass C North. There are a number of generalisations that can be made regarding Pakistan-India relations. Over the years, incidents like the Liaquat-Nehru Pact, Tashkent Agreement, Simla Agreement, cricket diplomacy, Lahore Declaration, Musharraf-Vajpayee joint declaration 2004 and Musharraf-Manmohan efforts show that there is a realisation on both sides where they understand that they tend to cooperate with each other, and they tend to cooperate because it is in their best interest. It is interesting that, accept for the Lahore Declaration, all major agreements of cooperation were made after each war. Like the Liaquat-Nehru Pact right after the 1947-1948 war, the Tashkent Agreement came after the 1965 war, Simla Agreement after the 1971 war and Zia's cricket diplomacy after Brasstacks. Musharraf also tried to ink a similar agreement after the Kargil War in the form of the Agra Accord but he failed to do so. This mean that the leadership of both countries always thought that war was not a good option. Even military ruler General Perverz Musharraf, who fought in the Kargil War, made efforts for cooperation. Though we mostly criticise General Ziaul Haq for different reasons, it would be unjust if he were not credited for saving a conventional war in 1987. It was his brilliant diplomacy during and after Brasstacks that he averted a war despite the fact that General Sunderji was in full mood for war and, importantly, the young prime minister of India, Rajeev Gandhi, was also ready for a full-fledged war with Pakistan. Moreover, the leaderships of both countries have learnt that they cannot live in regional isolation, they cannot afford constant warfare, the nuclear factor is real and that there is a need for strategic and economic consolidation.

No Impact – Nuclear Deterrence checks

Saleem, 1-10 – [Saba Saleem, Correspondent with the Statesmen, 1-10-2015, Pak-India nuclear deterrence,] Jeong

As international system is connected to power, prestige and security with the possession of nuclear weapons so nations go for the production of nuclear weapons. In the same way India and Pakistan also indulge in nuclear arms race for almost fifty years. Any new weapon which India has made or whatever she has done Pakistan has followed. Likewise whatever Pakistan has done or developed any new nuclear weapon was followed by India and the cycle goes on. In recent times India has made its anti missile defence system and Pakistan has extended its counter measures attempts in reaction. This is how the nuclear arms race is going on between India and Pakistan. Whether these nuclear weapons are a source to avoid IndoPak war or further fuel it? Will India and Pakistan avoid a nuclear war due to these nuclear weapons and due to their massive damage? Most of the people believe that if nuclear weapons multiply it causes insecurity and spoil the relations among states therefore possession of more nuclear weapons are worse. In the same way construction and possession of nuclear weapons by India and Pakistan would raise the level of accident, calamity, crisis and also nuclear war. People believe that increasing of nuclear arsenals between India and Pakistan generates tensions, volatility, and anxiety and also halts the progress in the relations of both countries. On the other hand some people also believe that these weapons are the key to a stable and secure relations between India and Pakistan and even these weapons are leading towards peace among both countries. Deterrence is the main reason of having the nuclear weapons because deterrence is the source of avoidance of military engagements. Nuclear weapon states have a threat that military involvements escalate to the level of nuclear war that is how deterrence works. India and Pakistan are nuclear weapon states and both clearly know that any exchange of nuclear weapon between them would result in high devastating damage that forces both states to stay away from opening of any military clash so that there is no need to use such destructive weapons. Hence both states are deterred to start any military fight. This creates the concept of mutually assured destruction between India and Pakistan. Mutual deterrence between both aggressive states limits the violence.

No Indo-Pak War

Ali, 15 – [Dr .Muhammad Ali Assistant Professor ,Department of Political Science, University of Karachi, February, 2015, PAKISTAN-INDIA RELATIONS: PEACE THROUGH BILATERAL TRADE, MLibrary: ProQuest,] Jeong

Trade between nations directly contributes to peace and tranquility. Trade creates an economic interest between nations and develops contacts between people which help them in mutual understanding. Countries are less likely to involve in a war if they have mutual economic benefits. Strong economic ties between Pakistan and India are essential for the peaceful resolution of the territorial disputes. It is true that conflicts have hampered Pak-India bilateral trade but it is also equally true that more trade will be a significant confidence building measure which will facilitate peace and reduce tension. Pak-India mutual trade can be promoted and enhanced by taking some major steps including a) elimination of non-tariff barriers to trade; b) facilitation of the cross-border movement of goods; c) promotion of conditions of fair competition and equitable benefits; d) creation of effective mechanism for the implementation and application of the agreement; e) simplification of customs clearance procedure and banking procedures for import financing. Moreover, development of communication systems and transport infrastructure; simplification of procedures for business visas and establishment of a framework will also facilitate the economic cooperation. Apart from that There is a dire need of drawing a rigorous framework for trade that should be formulated independent of any political pressure.Both the countries need to discuss a roadmap for removing bottlenecks in liberalization of bilateral trade and to remove all hurdles in the trade relations. Indian government needs to address concerns of business community in Pakistan regarding non-tariff barriers and other issues which impact export of goods.Hence, improved trade relations between Pakistan and India are inevitable for stability and thus security in the Sub-continent. Notwithstanding, these positive changes along with, several hurdles continue to exist due to political differences between the two countries. Some policy makers in Pakistan insist that unless the territorial disputes between two countries are resolved, trade and economic cooperation will remain low. However, this is not the case. A relationship which is based on trust and willingness and is backed by economic and commercial links can pave a way forward in the name of peace and prosperity. Enhancing mutual trade will not only bring benefits to the whole region but will also prove a key determinant for lasting relations between the two neighbours. It is, therefore, concluded that trade can play a soft and positive role in conflict resolution between the two long standing adversaries.

War isn’t an option for Pakistan

Reuters, 14 – [Reuters, 10-10-2014, Pakistan says war with India ‘not an option,] Jeong

Pakistan said on Friday that war with India was not an option, but that it would respond with "full force" to any attempt to challenge its sovereignty. Fighting between India and Pakistan paused on Friday after days of heavy shelling and gun battles across their disputed Himalayan border in Kashmir, the worst skirmishes between the nuclear-armed rivals in more than a decade. Pakistan's National Security Committee "stressed the fact that both countries are aware of each other's capabilities. War is not an option," Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's office said in a statement after chairing a committee meeting. "It is shared responsibility of the leadership of both countries to immediately defuse the situation," it said. "The committee expressed the resolve that any attempt to challenge Pakistan's territorial integrity and sovereignty will be responded with full force. The Armed Forces assured the National Security Committee that they are fully prepared to deal with any adversity at our borders." The lull came a day after a heated exchange of rhetoric, with New Delhi warning Pakistan it would pay an "unaffordable price" if shelling and machinegun fire continued. Islamabad had said it was capable of responding "fittingly" to aggression. Nine Pakistani and eight Indian civilians have been killed since both sides' security forces started firing more than a week ago along a 200-km stretch of border in mostly Muslim Kashmir. "It was calm along the Jammu border during the night, there was no firing in any of the sectors," said Uttam Chand, an Indian police officer, referring to the southern, predominantly Hindu part of the region. Almost 20,000 Indian civilians have fled their homes in the lowlands around India's Jammu region to escape the fighting, taking refuge in schools and relief camps. Civilians living in the area hit hardest by the shelling expressed relief at the halt in firing. "We hope calm prevails and the border shooting ends," said Avtar Singh, 45, after taking refuge in a nearby school. "Our condition in this school is very bad. We want to go back to our homes." Both countries have accused each other of starting the latest hostilities that have hit civilian areas. India says it will not talk to Pakistan or stop firing until its neighbour backs down first. An Indian police official told AFP 10 civilians had been injured overnight on the Indian side of the de facto border due to the fighting, but there were no deaths. Pakistan's army on Thursday confirmed that five more civilians had died on its side of the disputed northern Kashmir region and in eastern Punjab province, doubling the toll to 10. Seven civilians have died on the Indian side this week. The lull in fighting came after UN chief Ban Ki-moon's spokesman urged the two sides to engage in dialogue to find "a long-term solution for peace and stability in Kashmir".

Recent breakthroughs mean no conflict

Pakistan Today, 14 – [Pakistan Today, 7-1-14, Pakistan Today, “India-Pakistan relations”,”] Jeong

Lately, the Prime Minister of Pakistan Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif wrote a letter to the newly elected Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi. Naturally, what he wrote to the Indian prime minister couldn’t have been different, in any manner, from what he has been stating verbatim, time and again, vis-a-vis the mired bilateral relations between the two countries. PM Nawaz Sharif took the initiative and broke the ice, once again, by writing to PM Modi despite his detractors’ awfully critical stance on the recent overtures made by him to his Indian counterpart for peace. PM Modi’s response to Pakistan premier’s letter was equally encouraging. By expressing his government’s desire to work closely with PM Nawaz Sharif’s government, in an atmosphere free from confrontation and violence in order to chart a new course in bilateral relations, he has undeniably kindled a ray of hope for improvement in ties between the two countries.

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