Immigration Policy and Its Impact on Demographic Transition Table of Content Abstract



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Immigration Policy and Its Impact on Demographic Transition

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Abstract

The demographic challenges facing Canada are not new. Aging population and falling birth rate create significant existing and potential labour shortage. Among all instruments to deal with these challenges, immigration policy has long been considered as one important or the most important approach to tackle demographic issues. The purpose of this paper is to explore to what extent immigration policy helps to relieve demographic pressures and how different policy elements such as immigration level and its composition, selection criteria and integration programs etc involved in the impact process. The impact analysis suggests that although immigration policy plays a critical role in shaping Canada’s demographic profile, this policy alone can not achieve a sustainable demographic development. The need to balance various policy objectives (namely social, humanitarian and economic goals) and the impacts of other variables (such as emigration, immigrants’ personal behaviour) on demographic system pose both internal and external constraints on the immigration policy and make the actual impact of immigration policy on demographic transition limited. Another lesson learned from the impact analysis is that immigration policy is determining what kind of and how many people should be imported, but it is also be determined or affected by various factors such as interests groups and global migration competition. To better respond to demographic challenges, the immigration policy needs to be integrated with other policies or instruments to maximize the total benefits for the whole society.

Introduction

Immigration policy has long been an instrument to address demographic challenges. This paper tries to explore to what extent the immigration policy helps to relieve the demographic pressures. The first two parts give a brief overview of demographic situation in Canada and the evolution of Canada’s immigration policy. The third part focuses on the policy impact on three demographic characteristics: aging population, falling birth rate and labour shortage. Many aspects of immigration policy (selection criteria, immigration level and its composition, settlement services and integration programs etc) have been touched to illustrate the dynamic impact process and the contribution of different policy elements. The forth part summaries three lessons learned from the impact analysis. This section also includes some discussions about how to better use immigration policy to respond to demographic challenges. The final conclusion comments on the interdependency of immigration policy and demographic situation.


Canada_Demographic_Transition_Model'>Demographic Situation in Canada
Demographic Transition Model

The term “demographic transition” is often used to describe the population change over time. In demography, a classical demographic transition model generally contains four stages1:



  • Preindustrial Stage (high birth rate and death rate, slow population growth)

  • Transitional Stage (death rate drops, fast population growth)

  • Industrial Stage (birth rate drops, stable population growth), and

  • Postindustrial Stage (low birth rate and death rate, low population growth).

This model relates population dynamics with the industrialisation process. As a result of social and economic development, most developed countries have entered into the fourth stage of demographic transition. “By 1991, 18 European countries had reached or were close to zero population growth, while Hungary and Germany were experiencing population declines.”2


In Canada, the annual population growth rate was around 1% in the past decade. As table 1 shows, this rate ranks Canada second out of Group of Seven (G7) countries. With the highest net migration rate (0.61%), Canada leaded the way in attracting international immigrants than its counterparts. This fact illustrates that immigration plays a critical role in Canada’s population growth.
Table1 Annual Population Growth Rate and its Composition of G7 Countries

(1994 to 2004)

Country

Annual Growth Rate %

Natural Increase Rate3

%

Net Migration Rate4

%

United States

1.10

0.58

0.52

Canada

0.98

0.39

0.61

France

0.40

0.35

0.07

United Kingdom

0.34

0.11

0.22

Japan

0.19

0.16

0.01

Italy

0.18

-0.07

0.21

Germany

0.15

-0.13

0.22

Source: Demographic statistics, Statistic Canada, the Daily, Sept 28, 2005
Demographic Challenge

One reason to import large numbers of immigrants associates with the demographic challenge for Canada. In this part, the main characteristics of this challenge will be briefly discussed followed by some statistical review.


Aging Population

The following table displays the current profile of aging population in Canada.


Table 2 Profile of Canada’s Aging Population from 2000 to 2004

Year

Total Population

65 years and over

% of Total Population

2000

30,689,035

3,852,967

12.55%

2001

31,021,251

3,923,062

12.65%

2002

31,372,587

3,993,153

12.73%

2003

31,660,466

4,066,177

12.84%

2004

31,946,316

4,141,019

12.96%

Source: Statistic Canada CANSIM, Table 051-0001
Population projection shows that the aging speed will accelerate in 2011 “when the first baby-boom cohort (born in 1946) reaches the age of 65”5. By year 2031, senior people will account 23% to 25% of the total population, which almost double their current proportion of 13%.6 The aging population pose great challenge for the government on social welfare, health care and labour market.
Compared with other developed countries, the situation is not optimistic too. According to Canada’s 2005 Budget Plan, “over the next 25 years, Canada is expected to experience one of the largest increases in the ratio of elderly to the working-age population among Group of Seven (G-7) countries”7. A projected 20% increase in this ratio will make Canada second only to Japan in terms of aging speed.

Falling Birth Rate

Birth rate usually refers to the “crude birth rate” in demography. It is expressed as “the number of live births for every 1,000 people in the population”8 The following table displays the current profile of birth rate in Canada.



Table 3 Profile of Birth Rate from 2000 to 2003

Year

Total Population

Live Birth

Crude Birth Rate

2000

30,689,035

327,882

10.7

2001

31,021,251

333,744

10.7

2002

31,372,587

328,802

10.5

2003

31,660,466

335,202

10.6

Source: Statistic Canada CANSIM, Table 051-0001 and 102-4502, Catalogue 84F0210XIE

According to Statistic Canada, the year 2002 marked the lowest birth rate in Canada since 1921. And the birth rate “has declined 25.4% in the last 10 years alone”.9 The slight recovery in 2003 shows the government’s long-term efforts in increasing the birth rate. For example, many incentives such as maternity and parental leave benefits have been developed to encourage couples to have more children.

The OECD uses another indicator “fertility rate” (the average number of children women aged 15 to 49 will have in their lifetime)10 to measure the child birth of all its member countries. In the newest OECD social indicators publication, Canada’s fertility rate (1.52 in 2002) is below the average OECD countries’ fertility rates (1.60 in 2002)11.

Labour Shortage

As a result of the aging population and falling birth rate, working-age population (people aged from 15-64) is projected to drop from the current 70% of the total population to 62% at the beginning of 2030s. 12 This decline has a significant affect on the labour supply. Research shows that


Canada’s labour force grew by about 226,000 per year during the last 25 years. This growth will be cut by nearly half to only 123,000 per year during the current decade. To make matters worse, the growth rate will drop to only 42,000 per year during the first half of the next decade. By 2016, the annual growth rate will be near zero.13

In fact, labour shortage has occurred in some occupations. A prominent case is happening in the health care sector. According to the Ontario Medical Association, the doctor shortage has put provincial health care system at serious risk. “In 2006, the provincial physician shortage will reach 2,300 doctors, resulting in 1.4 million Ontario residents without a family doctor”14 This situation will worsen in the future given the fact that the aging population has a “double effect” on both the labour demand and labour supply of this occupation. On the supply side, 19% of practicing MDs are going to retire in next five years. This will cause critical supply shortage. On the demand side, the demand of health care will have a steady rise because “elderly (65+) population is growing at 1.7 per cent per year and life expectancies continue to rise”15.

In sum, the demographic situation in Canada coincides with the fourth stage of the demographic transition model. When people live longer and few children are born, an aging society becomes an inevitable trend. Labour shortage caused by aging population and falling birth rate seems the most challenging part as economic growth requires continuous supply of labour resources.

Immigration Policy in Canada

Immigration policy is defined as “any policy of a state that affects the transit of persons across its borders, but especially those that intend to work and to remain in the country”16. It usually contains two divisions: temporary entry and permanent immigration. From a practical perspective, immigration policy can also be divided into selection processes, settlement services and integration programs. For the purpose of discussion, this paper will focus on the policy and practice about permanent immigration.



Historical Overview

As a “nation of immigrants”, Canada has a long immigration history which dates back to mid-1800’s. The first immigration act was enacted in 1869. After that, immigration policy has experienced remarkable changes. The earlier immigration legislations (1869-1956) were highly restrictive and established on racial discrimination. The main purpose of immigration acts during this period was to prevent certain races or groups of people from entering Canada. For example, the 1885 Chinese Immigration Act introduced the Head Tax17 to discourage Chinese immigration after the completion of the Canadian Pacific Railway. This railway was built by a lot of European immigrants and Chinese workers. According to this act, every Chinese immigrant was required to pay $50 for entering Canada. This tax mounted to $500 by 1904. As a result, many Chinese immigrants had to be apart from their families because they could not afford the head taxes for all family members.

The year 1967 saw a breakthrough in immigration policy development. Started from this year, “race and concerns about preserving Canada’s demographic character were no longer major considerations for admission”18. The immigration policy became more open and democratic. Another contribution of the 1967 Immigration Act is that a points system was first introduced to rate applicants. Such system is still used in today. The following 1976 Immigration Act established a clear framework for contemporary immigration policy. This framework featured five characteristics19

  • Clear policy objectives: to promote social and economical goals, to support family reunification and to protect refugees

  • Four distinct categories of immigrants: independent, family, assisted relatives and humanitarian

  • Inclusion of refugee: refugee is included in the humanitarian category but the selection process is separated from other categories

  • Annual plan about immigration: the federal government committed to set annual target numbers for different immigration categories

  • Cooperation among all levels of governments: This act recognized the shared responsibilities among different levels of governments and allowed the federal government enter into agreements with every province in terms of immigration planning and management. Under this principle, the 1991 Canada-Quebec Accord gave Quebec government “more authority over immigration than other Canadian provinces, and complete control over providing immigration services.”20

The newest Immigration and Refugee Protection Act was issued in 2002 as a response to global migration pressure and terrorism after September 11. The permanent immigration was re-categorized into three broad classes: economic class (skilled workers, business immigrants, and live-in caregivers), family class and refugee class. There were also some changes about the selection criteria and policy enforcement. Generally, this new act put an emphasis on flexibility and security. It gave Canada “the tools to say ‘no’ more quickly, in order to remove serious criminals, and to say ‘yes’ more often to the immigrants and refugees it needs to continue to grow”21.

The evolution of Canada’s immigration policy reflected changes of answers on two questions: “who could be included in the Canadian community and who should be excluded?” and “how many immigrants are appropriate?” The difference between a racist policy and an open policy is that the criteria of what constitutes desirable immigrants and what numbers of immigrants are desirable varied over time. From this aspect, it is fair to say that demographic concern has long been part of immigration policy because immigration has long been considered as one component of population change.


Policy impacts on Demographic Development
As mentioned before, immigration policy has long been used to respond to demographic challenge. This part tries to explore to what extent the immigration policy helps to relieve the demographic pressure. The examination will be divided into three sections. The first part will look at the impact on aging population. The second part will look at the impact on birth rate result from immigration children and international adoption. The third part will look at the impact on labour market demographic based on the analysis of different classes of immigration.
Impacts on Aging Population
Many evidences have suggested that immigration population is relatively young compared with total population. According to Roderic Beaujot,
The median age of arriving immigrants has been about a year younger than that of the receiving population over the period 1945-71, changing to two years younger by 1981 and close to five years younger in 1991-96. Both immigrant arrivals and the receiving population have been aging, but arrivals remain younger on average22
The recent data demonstrated similar findings. As table 4 shows, about 10% difference was observed between senior (aged 65 years and over) percentage of total population and annual immigration from 2000 to 2004. For the annual immigration alone, senior people had also increased by 0.22%.
Table 4 Senior People (65+) in Total Population and Annual Immigration (20000-2004)


Year

% in Total Population

% in Annual Immigration

2000

12.55%

2.74%

2001

12.65%

2.67%

2002

12.73%

2.92%

2003

12.84%

2.34%

2004

12.96%

2.99%

Source: Statistic Canada CANSIM, Table 051-0001 and CIC, Facts and Figures 2004, Immigration Overview
It is believed that younger immigrants will slow the speed of population aging. A British Columbia study of elderly dependency23 projection revealed the exact contribution of immigration. According to this study, elderly dependency ratio will increase from 0.203 in 2001 to 0.385 in 2031 under normal scenario, in which BC is assumed to remain its current immigration level during this period. Under no immigrant scenario, the elderly dependency ratio will reach 0.502 by 2031.As figure 1 shows, this means “an extra 117 seniors (or 30 per cent more) will be supported by every 1,000 persons of working age in the year 2031”.24

Figure 1 BC Elderly Dependency Projections

It is important to note that not every class of immigration has the same impact on aging population. Generally speaking, the economic class is much younger than the other two classes because age has long been a selection factor for this class to ensure most of them are in the working age and be able to bring economic benefits to Canada. Take skilled workers selection as an example. The maximum age points will be awarded to applicants aged from 21 to 49. People who are less than 17 or more than 53 will get zero point on this factor. In 2004, the total immigrant seniors were 5526. Among these people, 78.9% came from family class, 8.9% were from refugee class while only 1.8% came from economic class25. This fact implies that a right mix of immigration is important to achieve the best impact on aging population.


Theoretically, the more young immigrants are imported, the slower will population aging. However, in practice, total immigration level has been controlled around 1% of base population and the policy impact on aging population is limited. Three reasons could to be addressed for this phenomenon. First, immigration policy has multi-purposes to serve and demographic objective is just one part. There always need a balance between the right size and right mix of immigration to ensure all policy objectives can be fairly achieved. Second, high immigration level will add burdens on social services and bring other negative impacts to the society. Third, the law of diminishing return also applies on immigration policy. At certain absorptive capacity, the economic return brought by immigrants will diminish as more immigrants come in. This means the domestic ability to successfully integrate immigrants into Canada’s society must be carefully measured.
Impacts on Falling Birth Rate
Immigration of children is an important way to overcome falling birth rate. According to G.A Hersak and S.Francolini, from 1954 to 1986, “new immigrant arrivals consistently showed a low proportion of children than in the overall population”26 However, the recent data show a different picture. As table 5 indicates, the children percentage in annual immigration was higher than in total population and the difference seemed enlarged from 4.1% in 2000 to 4.8% in 2004. Another observation from table 5 is that the portion of children in total population experienced a steady decline while there was a slightly fluctuation in the portion of children in annual immigration.
Table 5 Children (0-14) in Total Population and Annual Immigration

(2000-2004)


Year

% in Total Population

% in Annual Immigration

2000

19.2%

23.3%

2001

18.9%

23.5%

2002

18.6%

23.3%

2003

18.3%

22.3%

2004

17.9%

22.7%

Source: Statistic Canada CANSIM, Table 051-0001 and CIC, Facts and Figures 2004, Immigration Overview
Two reasons may explain the shift from low children intake to high children intake. On the one hand, the source countries of immigration have shifted from low birth rate countries to high birth rate countries in the past century. European countries and United Stats used to be the primary sources of Canada’s immigrants. But now, most immigrants come from Asia countries. Asia has long been the major source of world population growth and the portion of children in Asia is higher than in Europe and North America. According to United Nations’ estimate, in 2005, the crude birth rate in Asia is 36.3 while it is 10.1 in Europe and 13.5 in North America. Children (0-14) account for 27.8% of Asia population but only account for 15.9% in Europe and 20.5% in North America.27 On the other hand, the development of immigrants’ services has attracted more immigrant children. According to a small survey conducted by The Council of Agencies Serving South Asians (CASSA) and The South Asian Women’s Centre (SAWC), among 63 young immigrants, “Overall better life” and “Better Educational Opportunities” were the top two reasons for coming to Canada.28
Immigrants’ fertility is another factor affecting birth rate. Although this factor is more related with personal characteristics of immigrants such as race, culture, religion, sexual orientation etc, it is also linked with the immigration policy in three ways. First, the number of reproductive-age immigrant women will affect the fertility as more women will increase the chance of child birth. Second, the medical examination in the immigration selection process helps to ensure the quality of child birth. Third, integration programs have a mix impact on immigrants’ fertility. On one side, these programs help immigrants integrate effectively in the labour market and increase their income. This will increase immigrants’ ability to raise children and the willingness to have children may also increase. On the other side, integration may assimilate immigrants’ fertility pattern thus make their fertility more similar as native born population.
In sum, it is hard to generalize the overall impact of immigration policy on birth rate as many non-policy variables such as source countries of immigration, personal characteristics of immigrants come into play.
Impacts on Labour Shortage
There is no doubt that immigration is an important source of labour supply. However, this does not mean all immigrants will become the labour force nor will they fill the shortage effectively. The impact on labour shortage not only involves the quantity (how many immigrants participate in the labour force) but also the quality of labour supply (how well did immigrants fill in the shortage). From this point, immigrants’ labour market participation and their labour market performance are two key elements in impact assessment.
Immigrants’ labour market participation and performance is determined by three factors. First, immigrants’ willingness and ability is the internal determinant to their labour market participation. The entry class of immigration, income level, job prospects and social welfare system will all affect the willingness part. The ability part associates with immigrants’ education level, working experience, language ability etc. Second, labour market situation is the external determinant of immigrants’ labour market participation. Macroeconomic condition such as unemployment rate will affect immigrants’ participation as well as their labour market performance. Third, immigration policy plays an important role in integrating immigrants into the labour market. Immigration level and its composition determine the quantity of immigrants as a source of labour supply while the selection criteria determine the quality of immigrants. The settlement services and integration programs help to facilitate the adaptation process of immigrants to Canadian society thus improve their labour market performance.
Many efforts have been made to improve immigration policy in above three areas to better address labour shortage. In terms of selection criteria, the points system has experienced a big shift from former occupation-based model to flexible skill assessment. The reason for this change is twofold. On the one hand, government’s attempt to match immigrants’ occupation to specific labour shortage has been proved neither cost-effective nor efficient. Under current economic environment, it is hard for the government to closely monitor occupations in demand and apply this into immigration selection. On the other hand, many critics believed that occupation-based model was too rigid and failed to respond to fast changing labour market. The government should find a new way to facilitate the match between immigrants and labour shortage without micro-managing the process. According to CIC’s 2005 annual report, many initiatives have also been introduced “to enable immigrant applicants with valid offers of permanent employment to begin work as soon as possible.”29
As to the immigration level and its composition, the economic class has experienced a steady increase during the past two decades as table 6 shows. Within the economic class, there composition of different sub-categories also changed. According to Table 7, from 1995 to 2004, skilled workers featured an “increase-then-decrease” pattern while live-in caregivers showed the opposite. Business immigrants declined in this period but provincial nominees have a sharp increase.

Table 6 Immigration Composition by Category (1985-2004)


Class

1985

1990

1995

2000

2004

Family Class

46.7%

34.5%

36.4%

26.7%

26.4%

Economic Class

31.0%

45.2%

50.1%

59.9%

56.7%

Refugee Class

19.9%

18.6%

13.2%

13.2%

13.9%

Note: All numbers are expressed as percentage of annual immigrants. The percentage of small other immigrants are not included

Source: CIC, Facts and Figures 2004, Immigration Overview


Table 7 Immigration Composition within Economic Class (1995-2004)


Sub-Category

1995

2000

2004

Skilled Worker

38.4%

52.1%

48.1%

Business Immigrant

9.1%

6.0%

4.1%

Provincial nominees

-

0.6%

2.7%

Live-in caregivers

2.6%

1.2%

1.8%

Note: All numbers are expressed as percentage of annual immigrants, not percentage of economic class immigrants.

Source: CIC, Facts and Figures 2004, Immigration Overview


All these fluctuations reflected a dynamics interaction between immigration policy and labour market. First, the steady increase in the share of economic class immigrants has confirmed that labour shortage has affected the direction of immigration policy. Second, the main reason of the decrease in skilled workers after 2000 is the introduction of new immigration act in 2002. Aiming at improving immigrants’ labour market performance, the new selection grid actually reduced the number of admissible applicants. Third, business immigrants have conflicting impacts on the labour market. On the labour demand side, investors and entrepreneurs immigrants help to create jobs. On the labour supply side, because there is no control about what kind of jobs will be created, job creation sometimes will deepen the labour shortage. The decline of business immigrants could be partially explained by this reason. Fourth, provincial nominees30 play an important role in distributing immigrants to the local labour market. “The continued and growing preference of immigrants for living in Canada's largest urban centres”31 has been well documented. This geographic concentration problem poses great challenge for the immigration policy as labour shortage differs in different regions. From this aspect, the provincial nominees program helps the government respond to regional variations and ensure every part of Canada could share the benefits of immigration. Fifth, the live-in caregiver program provides an important way to attract immigrants to fill specific labour shortage in health care occupation. According to this program, people should apply for a work permit as a live-in caregiver before entering Canada, and after two years employment they can apply for immigration. This category illustrates that bridging temporary workers with permanent immigration is a good approach to fill labour shortage in specific sectors.
In regards to the integration programs, many critics have been made on the problem of foreign credential recognition and underemployment. According to the Longitudinal Survey of Immigrants to Canada, “lack of Canadian experiences and transferability of foreign credential”32 were cited as two critical barriers to immigrants’ employment. In addition, “6 in 10 employed immigrants worked in a different occupational group after their arrival”33. The biggest occupation shift occurred in the processing and manufacturing occupations. Prior to arrival, only 4.1% men and 4.4% women worked in this occupation while the percentage mounted to 22.3% and 17.9% respectively after arriving. In one word, recognition problem causes the underemployment of immigrants. The skill of immigrants was under utilized. This under-utilization takes many forms such as long processing time on credential assessment, non-recognition of foreign credential by professional licensing bodies and non-recognition by employers etc. “In Canada, it takes on average 10 years before a highly skilled immigrant reaches the same level of employment as a Canadian with approximately equivalent credentials”34. “Estimates of the economic value lost by undervaluing the skills of immigrants range as high as $15 billion annually”35. It is fair to say that this problem really discount the impact of immigration policy over skilled labour shortage because many immigrants concentrated on the unskilled jobs despite their education level.
A major challenge facing the government in improving foreign credential recognition is that “there is no central national agency responsible for credentials assessment”36, and “various provincial/territorial departments, academic institutions, autonomous accreditation boards, and professional regulatory bodies often follow separate procedures for assessing credentials from other countries and other Canadian jurisdictions”37 However, many partnership programs launched in recent years to overcome this institutional barrier. For example, the federal government launched a Foreign Credential Recognition (FCR) program in 2003. This program aims to provide financial and strategic support to various partners and “to develop tools and processes to assess and recognize foreign credentials in targeted occupations and sectors.”38 The funding for a six-year implementation is $68 million. Many provinces have also begun similar projects to facilitate immigrants’ labour market entry.
Overall, the impact on labour shortage generated by immigration policy is limited and the final result is mixed depending on the strength of other determinants and the interactions among policy, immigrants and labour market. However, improvements of immigration policy will increase both the quality and the quantity of labour supply.
Lessons Learned

Three lessons could be learned from above impact assessments. First, the ability of immigration policy to relieve demographic pressures should not be overstated as two limitations reduce the potential impact of immigration policy. The internal constraint comes from the need to balance demographic objective and other policy objectives. A balanced immigration policy must respond to various social, humanitarian and economic goals. This implies that immigrants is not simply “the more the better” or “the younger the better”. In addition, other variables’ impacts (such as economic condition, emigration, and immigrants’ personal characteristics) on the demographic development add an external constraint on the immigration policy. The actual impact on demographic transition is determined by the interactions among all variables.


Second, the existing problems associated with immigration policy such as geography concentration and foreign credential recognition confirm that immigration policy is just one variable in a very complex demographic system. These problems are difficult to solve because immigration policy can only partially influence immigrants’ resident destination and employers’ recruitment decision. There are variables such as immigrants’ and employers’ behaviour could not be regulated by policy. A feasible approach to address these problems, as indicated by the development of immigration policy, is building partnerships with various public and private stakeholders and fostering a better social environment for immigration integration.
Third, to achieve a sustainable demographic development, the immigration policy needs to be integrated with other variables to maximize the total benefits. Two variables deserve important consideration as many developed countries have entered the forth stage of demographic transition. The first one is the counterpart of immigration—emigration or so called “brain drain”. As all know, immigration deals with bringing people in and keeping people out while emigration deals with keeping people in. If the government could not retain its citizens, that will decrease the net migration, which is an important component of population growth. The second factor is international competitiveness of Canada. In the context of global migration, “Canada’s immigration policy must be assessed in the light of other countries immigration policies”39 because the international resources of immigrants supply are limited and competition among countries is inevitable.

Conclusion

The relationship between immigration policy and demographic transition is dynamic, interdependent but also limited by many other variables. The evolution of immigration policy has indicated that immigration policy could affect but also be affected by demographic situation and sometime there is a question about “chicken-first or egg-first”. From a policy perspective, the more we understand about the policy impact process and how policy elements interact with demographic situation and other variables, the better we can manage the process and make the policy more responsive for future demographic challenges.


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1 Michael Pidwirny, Geography 210: Introduction to Environmental Issues, 3.6 the Demographic Transition, Department of Geography, Okanagan University College, from http://www.geog.ouc.bc.ca/conted/onlinecourses/geog_210/210_3_6.html

2 Ibid

3 Natural increase is the change in population numbers between two dates resulting by substracting the number of deaths from the number of births

4 Net migration is the change in population numbers between two dates resulting by substracting the number of emigrants from the number of immigrants

5 Population projections, the Daily, Dec 15,2005, Statistic Canada, from http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/051215/d051215b.htm

6 Ibid

7 Annex 3, Canada’s Demographic Challenge, Budget Plan 2005, from http://www.fin.gc.ca/budget05/bp/bpa3e.htm

8 Birth Rate at all-time low, Statistics Canada ,from http://www.statcan.ca/english/freepub/11-002-XIE/2004/04/11804/11804_02.htm

9 Ibid

10 Ibid

11 Society at a Glance: OECD Social Indicators - 2005 Edition, OECD, from http://www.oecd.org/document/24/0,2340,en_33873108_33873277_2671576_1_1_1_1,00.html

12 Population projections, the Daily, Dec 15,2005, Statistic Canada, from http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/051215/d051215b.htm

13 Canada faces “worst-ever” labour shortage, Canadian Council of Technicians and Technologists, from http://www.cctt.ca/english/about/october03/Labourshortage.PDF

14 Ontario Physician Shortage 2005, Ontario Medical Association, from http://www.oma.org/Media/news/physicianshortagebackgrounder051121.asp

15 Ibid

16 Immigration policy, Wikipedia, from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_policy

17 Head Tax refers to a fixed amount per person, regardless of income, see head tax, Wikipedia, from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Head_Tax

18 Ninette Kelly and Michael Trebilcock, The Making of the Mosaic: A History of Canadian Immigration Polic, Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 1998,p380

19 A Historical Overview of Immigration Legislation, Maple Leaf Web, from http://www.mapleleafweb.com/features/general/immigration/history-immigration-legislation.html

20 What role do Provinces Play in Immigration, Maple Leaf Web, from http://www.mapleleafweb.com/features/general/immigration/immigration-provinces.html

21 Bill C-11, Immigration and Refugee Protection Act, Overview, CIC, from http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/irpa/c11-overview.html

22 Roderic Beaujot, Immigration and Canadian Demographics: State of the Research, Citizenship and Immigration Canada 1998, from http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/research/papers/demographics.html


23 Elderly Dependency is the ratio of elderly to the working-age population

24 Special Feature: Immigrants as a source of Labour Supply, BC Stats, from

25 Facts and Figures 2004, Immigration Overview, CIC, from http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/pub/facts2004/permanent/8.html

26 G.A Hersak and S.Francolini, Immigration of Children as a Response to Demographic Concerns, Employment and Immigration Canada, Ottawa, 1987,p12

27 World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision Database, United Nation Population Division, from http://esa.un.org/unpp/

28 Sabra Desai, Sangeeta Subramanian, Colour, Culture and Dural Consciousness: Issues Identified by South Asian Immigrant youth in the Great Toronto Area, The Council of Agencies Serving South Asians (CASSA) and The South Asian Women’s Centre (SAWC), April 2000, p47, from http://settlement.org/downloads/CASSA_Youth_Report.pdf

29 Annual Report to Parliament on Immigration, CIC, 2005, section 3, from http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/pub/annual-report2005/section3.html#3_1a

30 Provincial nominees, allow the provinces and territories to select immigrants for specific skills that will contribute to the local economy. see http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/pub/you%2Dasked/section%2D08.html#1

31 Annual Immigration Plan 2002, CIC, from http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/pub/anrep02.html

32 Longitudinal Survey of Immigrants to Canada: Process, Progress and Prospects, catalogue no. 89-611-XIE , Statistics Canada, 2003 , from http://www.statcan.ca/english/freepub/89-611-XIE/labour.htm

33 Ibid

34 Foreign Credential Recognition: An Overview of Practice in Canada, The Canadian Alliance of Education and Training Organizations,2004

35 Benjamin Dolin, Margaret Young, Canada’s Immigration Policy, Law and Government Division, Revised October 2002, from http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca.ezproxy.library.dal.ca/Collection-R/LoPBdP/BP/bp190-e.htm

36 Federal, Provincial and Territorial Activities Related to the Assessment of Credentials, The Canadian Information Centre for International Credentials, 2002, from http://www.cicic.ca/evaluation/fptactivities.en.php

37 Ibid

38 Foreign Credential Recognition, Treasury Board of Canada Secretariat, from http://www.tbs-sct.gc.ca/rma/eppi-ibdrp/hrdb-rhbd/fcr-rtce/description_e.asp#g4

39 D. DeVoretz (ed), Diminishing Returns: The Economics of Canada’s Recent Immigration Policy, Toronto: CD Howe Institute, 1995,p4






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