History mechanics

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(textual version of Web page)
This Web site presents the history theory developed in 1990-2002. Mechanics of History is a collection of models and laws that explain the strongest historical, and economic processes.
You will not find here many facts from history ęłęó(except some links to historic sites). This page is devoted to present my work, so if you search for important information, you better click out.

Ø If you are interested in mechanisms that drive the history, and want to see some explanations, why our history was as it was.

Ø If you are interested what would happen if history took another path, and moreover when these “alternative variants of history” were possible, and when not.

Ø If you are interested in scientific explanation of history.

Ø If you want to learn tools that helps to predict events like South-Asia Crisis (1997) or fall of president Fujimori in Peru (2000).

This page will probably satisfy you.

· I presented here only about 1% of whole theory (or even less).

· Because of that I have to use many simplifications, and I am not saying a word about many doubts I still have, and phenomena I do not understand.

· I have not enough space here to present all consequences of presented laws, and every connection between them. You have to do it by your own.

· And the last but not least, sorry for my weak English.

The theory consists of five important parts:
Some basics foundations, and some author's remarks about basic powers that drive history are shortly described here.
Political Systems
Classification of political systems (feudal system, populistic system, democratic system), and related tools (like GPI). This page explains why the ancient Athens democracy was not a democracy, but ancient Rome was, why Rome and Great Britain built great empires, and where dictatorships and totalitarian systems come from.
Laws for History
Description of the basic historical schemas, and processes. This page explains reasons that stands behind the rise, and fall of historical countries, and reason for upspring, and domination of Europe.

Economics Tools
Description of the basic economics tools used here. This page presents the classification of economic crises (stagflation crisis, overproduction crisis), and mechanics that stands behind them. Explains when economy should be stimulated by government, and when not. Why sometimes a free trade will not work - the flaws of Comparative Advantage Theory.
The World History Rewritten
Short world history as from the point of view of author. This page contains more facts from history (
and links) than other pages presented here, and is probably the most readable part of this site.
The basic knowledge you should have to read this material:

· Basic knowledge of economy (including microeconomics, and macroeconomics). Material from the first year of college course should be enough.

· Terminology used in the institutional economics (institutions, transaction costs, etc.).

· Comparative advantage theory used by economists to explain rationality of free trade.

· Complete knowledge about general world history.

· At minimum history of: England, Ancient Rome, USA, Ancient Greece, France, Italy, Switzerland, Poland or Hungary, Russia, India, and China. Each book you need to read should have about 400-500 pages (shortest books will not work) an should include economic, and institutional background, plus a few words about social conflicts (should not be only a description of wars, and battles).

· Knowledge of the history of other countries will not hurt.

· It also be good to know the base terminology used by major scientist that writes about processes that drives the history, for example: Karl Marx, Max Webber, Immanuel Wallerstein or Paul Kennedy.

· A short contact with political game like Avalon Hill “Diplomacy”, and with game theory could help to understand some elements I present here.
Special thanks to Sławomir Maszewski

I strongly advise you to read this material in sequence, page-by-page, because I will introduce some concepts gradually. First simple definitions, then in World History Rewritten section, more exact explanations, substantations and examples. History Mechanics is extremly comprehensive, so I will start from easiest problems and then gradually go to more complicated. Moreover I sometimes have to present only half-true intermediary explanations (“lies for children” using terminology of Ian Stewart and Jack Cohen) at first, and correct them later to make this lecture more user-friendly.
History processes aredriven mostly by economic factors

To be more precise: economy is not the only power that drives history, but economic factors are the most important in macroscale, and in long run. Good analogy could be the gravity in physics. Gravity does not explain every physical process but is the easiest factor to eliminate, observe, and examine.

That doesn't mean that people behaviors are driven ONLY by economy. Often people acts according to ideologies they believe or motivated by some other reasons. Rationality of social behaviors is a statistical rationality like in biological evolution. Moreover, actions of people, parties, countries and other players ALLWAYS depends on available resources, and economics concrentrate on the problem of limited resources.

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