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Federalism DA
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Impact—COVID

Failure to act now could see a spike in preventable deaths


Bendix 20 (Aria, Senior Reporter at Business Insider, covering urban and environmental science. “The US's second peak may be less deadly than the first — but coronavirus fatalities in the next 3 months could still rival US combat deaths during World War I.” Business Insider, 7/5/20, https://www.businessinsider.com/us-coronavirus-deaths-could-rise-soon-2020-7, Accessed 7/6/20, GDI – JMoore)
Indeed, projections from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) suggest that this new peak is not expected to be as deadly as the one in April.
That's primarily because increased testing means more mild cases are being confirmed, and young people represent a larger share of coronavirus cases than they did at the start of the outbreak. (We know now that COVID-19 is far less fatal in younger people.) In Florida, the median age of coronavirus cases has dropped to 35, compared 65 in March. Cases among people under 40 are also rising in Arizona, California, Minnesota, Ohio, South Carolina, and Texas.
But even if higher case counts don't bring a proportional surge in deaths, there is still reason for alarm. The IHME model projects that the US will see nearly 50,000 new coronavirus deaths from July to October 1. That's close to the number of US combat deaths recorded during World War I.
Put another way, the model expects the US to see 500 or more people die of COVID-19 every day for the next three months, on average. The projection accounts for seasonality, the amount of testing being done, and how often people are interacting with others outside their household.
Currently, more than 128,000 people have been killed by COVID-19 in the US, so the additional projected deaths represent a nearly 40% increase. These deaths are expected to arrive as other countries' daily cases and deaths continue to drop precipitously.
And if that wasn't concerning enough, there's still a strong possibility that coronavirus deaths will rise in the near future.
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