Evan Osborne



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Table 4


Federal revenue from various sources, 1792-2000 (percent)

Year Customs Ind. income Corp. income Total income Excise

1792 93.8 0 0 0 0

1800 83.7 0 0 0 0

1820 83.9 0 0 0 0

1840 69.3 0 0 0 0

1860 94.8 0 0 0 0

1880 55.9 0 0 0 36.1

1900 41.1 0 0 0 50.1

1920 4.8 7.0 7.0 14.0 13.5

1940 6.7 19.1 22.3 41.4 36.6

1960 1.2 44 23.2 67.2 12.5

1980 1.4 47.2 12.5 59.7 4.7

2000 01 48.6 9.8 58.5 3.5
1. Less than 0.1 percent.

Table 5

State regression results

State expenditures State revenues

Variable Coefficient Coefficient

INTERCEPT 19.52552*** 19.64908***


(75.32927) (93.84031)

INCOME 0.00546*** 0.008913***


(3.984535) (7.827386)

POP 1.8E-07*** 1.7E-07***

(16.02303) (18.0513)



TAX 0.371788** 0.10311**
(2.916188) (3.267808)

URBAN 0.924589* 0.643841*

(2.356536) (2.011754)



¯2 = 0.701968 ¯2 = 0.770249

F = 116.4118*** F = 166.5239***

N = 197 N = 199

Note: *** denotes significance at 0.1-percent level.

** denotes significance at one-percent level.

* denotes significance at five-percent level.



Note: Figures in parentheses are t statistics.

1. 102 US 586 (1881).

2. Pollock v. Farmers' Loan & Trust Co. 158 US 601 (1895) (Rehearing)

3. Of course, it might also be possible that the U.S. refrained from becoming involved in European affairs until the income tax was in place.

4. A separate regression was run with a dummy variable for the existence of individual income taxes rather than any income taxes at all. It too was highly significant with the same sign. (Details available upon request.)

5. Webber and Wildavsky note in their analysis of tax evasion in “Latin nations” (p. 549) that L’Osservatore Romano had at one point declared that tax evasion was not a sin. The theologian Henry Davis (1958) makes a prisoners’ dilemma argument against declaring evasion sinful, and numerous other such theological arguments are found in Martin T. Crowe (1944). The general theology of tax evasion is summarized in Mcgee (1998).





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