|2NC Ext #1 – Tetlock Flawed
Extend 1NC 1 – the Tetlock study was flawed – his study sample suffers from sever selection bias as he asked difficult and controversial questions so the academic sphere could not come to a consensus – that’s Caplan.
Tetlock’s questions were controversial – prevents predictive analysis
Bryan Caplan, Jan ‘7 [HAVE THE EXPERTS BEEN WEIGHED, MEASURED, AND FOUND WANTING?
Critical Review,(19)1, pages 81 – 91]
Tetlock also asks quite a few questions that are controversial among the experts themselves.4 If his goal were solely to distinguish better and worse experts, this would be fine. Since Tetlock also wants to evaluate the predictive ability of the average expert, however, there is a simple reason to worry about the inclusion of controversial questions: When experts sharply disagree on a topic, then by definition, the average expert cannot do well.
AND – Menand doesn’t say all predictions are bad – he says "we as a society would be better off if participants in policy debates stated their beliefs in testable form -that is, as probabilities” – that means our disads that weigh impacts based on testable forms or based on probabilities do not link to their critique
Share with your friends: