Da – Court Packing Notes

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Court Packing DA
the gutters, 2nc Lansing Rnd5, 1AC Practice 10-20, Speech 1ac Ag runoff 8-31 12AM, Speech 1AC CAFOs personal, send cards, 2nr , Con Side, Movements DA, Marijuana Neg, Federalism DA, Death Penalty Negative, Death Penalty Affirmative, Aff AT Movements DA

2NC – Impact Overview

2NC – Warming extension

Warming turns all other impacts.

Cribb ’17 [Julian; 2017; Principal of Julian Cribb & Associates, Fellow of the Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering, former Director of National Awareness at the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation; Surviving the 21st Century, “The Baker,” Ch. 4, p. 91-93; DML]
This event, known as the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum or PETM, happened only about ten million years after the dinosaurs were smashed by an asteroid impact. This ‘hyperthermal’ period took place quite suddenly (in geological terms)—in less than 2000 years—and lasted for about 170,000 years before the planet again cooled. The heat spike was accompanied by a major wipe-out of ocean life in particular, though most small land mammals survived. Investigating the records of old marine sediments Zeebe was able to show there had been a sharp, 70 %, leap in atmospheric CO 2 concentrations at the time. However, he concluded there was only sufficient carbon available to force the climate to warm by 1–3 °C and that some other mechanism must have been triggered by the initial warming, which then drove the Earth’s temperature to fever pitch, up by another 4–6 °C (Zeebe et al. 2009). This process is the ‘ runaway global warming ‘ which now menaces us.
The significance of PETM is that it appears that about the same volume of carbon was dumped by natural processes into the Earth’s atmosphere and oceans as humans are currently dumping with the burning of fossil fuels and clearing of the world’s forests—about 3 trillion tonnes in all—and it was this that triggered the hyperthermal surge in planetary heating.
As to the mechanism that could suddenly release a huge amount of extra carbon into the atmosphere and oceans and project global temperatures up by 6–9 °C, the most likely explanation is the one described at the start of this chapter—the rapid melting and escape of billions of tonnes of frozen methane, CH 4 , currently locked in tundra and seabed sediments. This phenomenon, dubbed the “clathrate gun ” (Kennett et al. 2003), is now linked by scientists not only with the PETM event but also, according to palaeontologist Peter Ward, with the Great Death of the Permian, the worst annihilation in the history of life on Earth (Ward 2008). The significance of the clathrates is that they consist of methane, a gas that is 72 times more powerful than CO 2 as a climate forcing agent in the short run, and 25 times stronger over a century or so. The clathrates could be released by a process known as ‘ ocean overturning ’, a shift in global current patterns caused by moderate warming, which brings warmer water from the surface down into the depths, to melt the deposits of frozen gas. Unlocking several trillion tonnes of methane would cause global temperatures to rocket upwards sharply. Once such a process gets under way, most experts consider, warming will happen so fast it is doubtful if humans could do anything to stop it even if they instantly ceased all burning of fossil fuels.
This ‘double whammy’ of global warming caused by humans releasing three trillion tonnes of fossil carbon which then precipitates an uncontrollable second phase driven by the melting of all or part of the five trillion tonnes of natural methane deposits (Buff et & Archer 2004) is the principal threat to civilisation in the twenty-first century and, combined with nuclear conflict (Chap. 4), to the survival of the human species.
The IPCC’s fifth report states that the melting of between 37 and 81 % of the world’s tundra permafrost is ‘virtually certain’ adding “There is a high risk of substantial carbon and methane emissions as a result of permafrost thawing ” ((IPCC 2014a), p. 74). This could involve the venting of as much as 920 billion tonnes of carbon. However, the Panel did not venture an estimate for methane emissions from the melting of the far larger seabed clathrates and a number of scientists have publicly criticised the world’s leading climate body for remaining so close-lipped about this mega-threat to human existence. The IPCC’s reticence is thought to be founded on a lack of adequate scientific data to make a pronouncement with confidence—and partly to fear of the mischief which the fossil fuels lobby would make of any premature estimates. However, it critics argue, by the time we know for sure that the Arctic and seabed methane is escaping in large volumes, it will be too late to do anything about it.
The difficulty is that no-one knows how quickly the Earth will heat up, as this depends on something that cannot be scientifically predicted: the behaviour of the whole human species and the timeliness with which we act. Failure to abolish carbon emissions in time will make a 4–5 °C rise in temperature likely. As to what that may mean, here are some eminent opinions :
• Warming of 5 °C will mean the planet can support fewer than 1 billion people—Hans-Joachim Shellnhuber, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Kanter 2009)
• With temperature increases of 4–7 °C billions of people will have to move and there will be very severe conflict—Nicholas Stern, London School of Economics (Kanter 2009)
• Food shortages, refugee crises, flooding of major cities and entire island nations, mass extinction of plants and animals, and a climate so drastically altered it may be dangerous for people to work or play outside during the hottest times of the year—IPCC Fifth Assessment (IPCC 2014b)
• Corn and soybean yields in the US may decrease by 63–82 %—Schlenker and Roberts, Arizona State University (Schlenker & Roberts 2009a)
Up to 35% of the Earth’s species will be committed to extinction—Chris Thomas, University of Leeds (Thomas et al. 2004)
• Total polar melting combined with thermal expansion could involve sea levels eventually rising by 65 m (180 ft), i.e. to the 20th floor of tall buildings, drowning most of the world’s coastal cities and displacing a third or more of the human population (Winkelmann et al. 2015)
Intensified global instability, hunger, poverty and conflict. Food and water shortages, pandemic disease, disputes over refugees and resources, and destruction by natural disasters in regions across the globe—Chuck Hagel, US Secretary for Defence (Hagel 2014)
• “Almost inconceivable challenges as human society struggles to adapt… billions of people forced to relocate.… worsening tensions especially over resourcesarmed conflict is likely and nuclear war is possible”— Kurt Campbell, Center for Strategic and International Studies (Campell et al. 2007).
• “Unless we get control of (global warming), it will mean our extinction eventually”—Helen Berry, Canberra University (Snow & Hannam 2014).

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