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Impact – Laundry List

Relations solve and turn case – energy, climate change, prolif, and trade

Shifter, 2010

[Michael, Obama and Latin America: New Beginnings, Old Frictions, Current History109. 724 (Feb 2010): 67-73, Proquest]

The Obama administration's pragmatic and realist foreign policy orientation has logically meant an interest in deepening relationships with the two most significant Latin American countries: Brazil and Mexico. From the outset of his administration, Obama seems to have grasped the vital importance of Brazil in helping to advance US interests and priorities in the region. Brazil, increasingly active and influential in global forums such as the Group of 20, and with aspirations to gain a seat on the United Nations Security Council, is regarded as a central player on issues such as energy, climate change, nonproliferation, and the Doha round of trade negotiations.

Relations solve and turn case – economy, proliferation, climate change, renewables market and food security

Bodman et al 11

[Samuel W. Bodman and James D. Wolfensohn, ChairsJulia E. Sweig, Project Director, The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) is an independent, nonpartisan membership organization, think tank, July 2011

Independent Task Force Report No. 66 “Global Brazil and U.S.-Brazil Relations”,

Cooperation between the United States and Brazil holds too much promise for miscommunication or inevitable disagreements to stand in the way of potential gains. A strengthened U.S.-Brazil relationship could be the basis for economic growth in Brazil, the United States, and globally, as well as for lasting peace and democratic stability in the region, nuclear nonproliferation, international progress on combating climate change, development of a global renewable energy market, global food security, and more legitimate and effective international institutions. Presidents Obama and Rousseff have laid the groundwork for progress on many of these fronts. The moment to build on this positive foundation is now.

Impact – Terrorism

US-Brazil relations are key to military and security cooperation solves terrorism, narcotics trafficking and organized crime

Brown, 2012

[Lieutenant Colonel Lawrence T. Brown, Restoring the “Unwritten Alliance” in Brazil—United States Relations, Strategy Research Project, 3-23-12,]

Strengthened military relations naturally flow from improved diplomatic ones. As ¶ regional leaders, the United States and Brazil can focus their combined security efforts ¶ and resources against common threats to the two nations—and to the entire Western Hemisphere. Intelligence sharing during the upcoming World Cup and Olympic games, ¶ coordinated counterterrorism measures in the Tri-Border Area, and disrupting narcotrafficking between South America and Africa are among the more pressing security cooperation initiatives that can bring greater security to both countries and to the hemisphere. Close security and defense cooperation in the future, absent the historic ¶ shadow of U.S. imperialism, will help in re-establishing the “Unwritten Alliance” dynamic between the United States and Brazil that flourished in the first half of the 20¶ th¶ Century.¶ When Brazil hosts the World Cup and Olympics in a couple of years, it is in the ¶ U.S. national interest to assist Brazil’s efforts in countering terrorism, curbing drug 3¶ trafficking, and reducing international crime. This United States provided similar support ¶ to South Africa during the World Cup in 2010 – assisting the prevention of devastating terrorist attacks on that world stage. Averting another “Munich” is certainly in the interest ¶ of the United States and indeed of all world sporting events. For the 2010 World Cup, ¶ South African security services benefited from security grants and extensive training: ¶ “Specifically, Anti-Terrorism Assistance has provided Underwater Explosive, Critical Incident, and Special Events Management, Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear, and related equipment training.”¶ 42¶ Both the 2006 World Cup in Germany and the ¶ following one in South Africa transpired successfully with low-key U.S. security ¶ assistance. There were no terrorist attacks, despite ongoing large-scale operations ¶ against terrorists in Iraq and Afghanistan at the time. When President Obama visited ¶ Brazil in 2011, one of the agreements resulting from the trip was a Memorandum of ¶ Understanding (MOU) between the U.S. and Brazil concerning world sporting events¶ cooperation. Security was one of the MOU’s six focus areas of cooperation. This MOU ¶ is foundational for the U.S. Department of State and Defense to provide any future ¶ support desired by the Brazilian government.¶ 43¶ One of the great strengths of the United States resides in its intelligence ¶ databases, whose holdings and effectiveness have grown substantially since 9/11. For ¶ the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Summer Olympics in Brazil, an intelligence sharing ¶ mechanism would help deter terrorism threats. Successful physical or virtual sharing could continue afterwards to address other regional security threats, such as drug trafficking or organized crime. Of course, extending temporary intelligence sharing after ¶ the world sporting events may be problematic due to Brazilian memory from its 4¶ authoritarian past, when the military regime collected intelligence to deter internal ¶ dissent.¶ 44¶ U.S. officials have the next four years to convince the Brazilian government of ¶ its benign intentions. With less than two years before the opening kick of 2014 World ¶ Cup, beta testing of this provisional intelligence sharing arrangement should begin ¶ immediately to track terrorist threats likely to originate in the “Tri-Border Area” of South ¶ America. ¶ Exposed Southern Flank¶ The United States has long worried about the “Tri-Border Area” (The TBA is the ¶ name given to the area surrounding the border shared between Brazil, Argentina, and ¶ Paraguay). In these border towns, laws are minimally enforced, money is laundered, ¶ and weapons, drugs, and people are trafficked. Organized crime and Islamic extremism have thrived there due to a lack of effective law enforcement from the three border nations. 45 Concerns increased after 9/11 that Al-Qaeda could transit potentially porous borders, perhaps through Mexico, to attack U.S. interests in North America.¶ 46¶ Today, as the specter of war with Iran rises because of its purported pursuit of nuclear weapons, the concern has moved from devastating attacks from Al-Qaeda to devastating attacks from Hezbollah and its patron Iran. As recently as October 2011, Iran was accused of ¶ authorizing and financing an assassination attempt against the Saudi Arabian ¶ Ambassador to the United States and of contemplating further attacks in Argentina.¶ 47¶ Successful terrorist attacks against Argentina were carried out in 1992 and 1994 by a ¶ Hezbollah militant organization supported by Iran. Terrorists exploited the TBA during¶ each operation.¶ 48¶ The most telling evidence of potential terrorist attacks out of the TBA ¶ surfaced during a Hezbollah militiaman’s interview by the Spanish television station 5¶ Telemundo. During the interview, the Hezbollah militant stated emphatically that if the ¶ United States attacked Iran, then Hezbollah would conduct retaliatory attacks inside the ¶ United States.¶ 49¶ One counterterrorism expert, Edward Luttwak, described Hezbollah’s ¶ most important base outside Lebanon as the TBA from which they have already ¶ supported terrorist attacks: “The northern region of Argentina, the eastern region of ¶ Paraguay and even Brazil are large terrains, and they have an organized training and ¶ recruitment camp for terrorists.”¶ 50¶ The historical evidence of terrorist activity emanating from the TBA is chilling. If ¶ the current crisis with Iran is not resolved by the time of the 2014 World Cup and the ¶ 2016 Olympics, then the Brazilian government will need substantial help in preventing¶ potential terrorist attacks to disrupt games that will attract a global audience. Even now, Hezbollah terrorists may be inclined to strike at Israeli or American targets in the Western Hemisphere in retaliation for a recent UNSC resolution that placed additional sanctions on Iran. Hezbollah attacked its targets in Argentina for lesser reasons in 1992 ¶ and 1994.¶ 51¶ This is why intelligence sharing with Brazil must start now. The last time the ¶ United States held a 3+1 Group Meeting (Brazil, Paraguay, Argentina, and the United ¶ States) on TBA security was in 2004.¶ 52¶ This Group should re-convene at the earliest ¶ opportunity to assess the current terrorist threat within the TBA and to determine the ¶ probabilities of Hezbollah becoming operational if Iran is attacked.¶ 53¶ Nevertheless, ¶ collaborative intelligence initiatives must extend to the World Cup and Olympic ¶ timeframes if Iran continues to violate UNSC resolutions concerning its nuclear ¶ program. It is in both countries national interests to prevent attacks against their homeland. Certainly, Brazil does not want its territory utilized as a springboard for 6 attacks within the region. Full cooperation in this security arena will assist in preventing the unthinkable until the Iran crisis over-dual use nuclear material is resolved. Narco-Terrorist Connection Cooperation in breaking the Brazil—West Africa narcotics connection is another area where national interests converge. In 2009, Brazil became the primary ¶ embarkation point for South American cocaine headed for West Africa. In West Africa, ¶ “there is evidence by the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) that Latin American ¶ traffickers are collaborating with Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and ¶ Hezbollah to smuggle cocaine to Europe.”¶ 54¶ The Executive Director of the U.N. Office of ¶ Drugs and Crime (UNODC) also confirmed that terrorists from Africa used money from drug trafficking to resource operations, purchase equipment, and provide salaries for their ranks.¶ 55 It is common knowledge that the United States conducts counterterrorist operations against AQIM, and seeks to stop any funding derived from the transshipment of cocaine from Latin America. Although Brazil itself does not produce significant¶ amounts of cocaine, it does have 10,500 miles of mostly unsecured coastline. In ¶ addition, three of the world’s top producers of cocaine border Brazil: Columbia, Peru, ¶ and Bolivia. Brazil has invested more heavily in enforcing its borders since the ¶ economic boom, but the United States could assist by continuing the same intelligence ¶ sharing mechanism that has been proposed for the World Cup and Olympics. ¶ Additionally, Brazil’s unmanned aerial surveillance (UAS) program is currently in its infancy; it could benefit from the experience and systems of the mature U.S. programs. 56¶ Building on the predicted intelligence successes of the World Cup and¶ Olympics, this cooperation could perhaps expand to neighboring countries. Eventually, 7 it could evolve into a hemispheric security network serving the national interests of all participating nations.

Nuclear terrorism risks extinction

ALEXANDER (Dir. Inter-University Center for Terrorism) 2000

[Yonah, “Terrorism in the 21st Century”, Depaul Business Law Journal, p. ln

More specifically, present-day terrorists have introduced into contemporary life a new scale of terror violence in terms of both threats and responses that has made clear that we have entered into an Age of Terrorism with all of its serious implications to national, regional, and global security concerns. n25 Perhaps the most significant dangers that evolve from modern day terrorism are those relating to the safety, welfare, and rights of ordinary people; the stability of the state system; the health of economic [*67] development; the expansion of democracy; and possibly the survival of civilization itself.

AT: Brazilian-US Relations

Relations resilient – Disagreements don’t overwhelm the relationship.

Peter Hakim 04, president of the Inter American Dialogue, 2004

In the near future, Brazil, more than any other country, will affect Washington’s ability to advance its foreign policy agenda in Latin America—and on some issues, it will influence the prospects of U.S. policy success outside the region. The U.S. and Brazil disagree on many issues, including the FTAA and other trade matters. The main test of the relationship will not be whether Washington and Brazil can find areas of cooperation and agreement. Instead, it will be whether they can continue, as they have done so far, to accommodate their divergent national interests and goals, tolerate differing political perspectives, and avoid conflict.

Relations resilient – We assume their disagreements argument.

Gentile 04 (Carmen, staff, United Press International, 11/3/04)

Amorim stressed that relations between Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and the Bush administration have been good in recent years despite occasional conflicts over trade and other issues. Meanwhile, U.S. Ambassador to Brazil John Danilovich said Wednesday that during Bush's second term in office, the United States and Brazil could go back to work on creating a free trade bloc in the Western Hemisphere, a proposal that has been contested by Brazil in recent months due to the United States' unwillingness to make certain concessions regarding subsidies and tariffs. Brazil would like a fresh start to relations with the United States, though doesn't really expect much over the next four years regardless of who is in the White House. Although Bush vowed to improve U.S. ties with the region when he assumed office in 2001, U.S. interest has been limited to trade issues and subsidies. Brazil has, for the most part, remained off the Bush administration's radar, which has focused on Iraq and the war on terror. "The truth is that for countries like Brazil, it makes little difference (is) elected president of the United States," Brazil expert and Harvard Prof. Kenneth Maxwell told the leading news magazine, Veja. "The focus of American external policy will continue to be far from Latin America." Despite the scant attention paid to Brazil over the past four years, U.S.-Brazilian relations have been acrimonious at times since left-leaning President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva took the reins of South America's largest country in January 2003.
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