Coal, metals and steel etfs show relative weakness dollar forms bullish engulfing at key retracement gold fails to hold flag breakout 7-10 year t-bond etf fails at resistance european finance sector hits resistance



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COAL, METALS AND STEEL ETFS SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS -- DOLLAR FORMS BULLISH ENGULFING AT KEY RETRACEMENT -- GOLD FAILS TO HOLD FLAG BREAKOUT -- 7-10 YEAR T-BOND ETF FAILS AT RESISTANCE -- EUROPEAN FINANCE SECTOR HITS RESISTANCE

By Arthur Hill

COAL, METALS AND STEEL ETFS HAVE WEAK SCTR... Link for today’s video. Signs of weakness are showing up in key parts of the materials sector. The Coal Vectors ETF (KOL), Metals & Mining SPDR (XME) and Steel ETF (SLX) have low SCTR scores (<30) and all three are trading below their early February highs. In contrast, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) sports a relatively high SCTR score (±80) and is currently trading above its early February high. SCTR stands for StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR), which extends from 0 to 100. In general,SCTR readings above 70 show relative strength and upside leadership, while readings below 30 show relative weakness. Chartists can look at the actual level or use the SCTR like any other cumulative indicator, such as the Price Relative or On Balance Volume (OBV). Trend analysis, support/resistance breaks and even divergences can be used to generate signals. 

Chart 1 shows the Coal ETF forming a lower high in early February and failing to bounce after breaking the trendline extending up from mid December. Since the gap and trendline break, the ETF formed a pennant consolidation and a break below pennant support would signal a continuation lower. This would also break the trendline extending up from the early October low. The indicator window shows the SCTR remaining at low levels and failing to breakout in early February. 



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Chart 1

Chart 2 shows the Metals and Mining SPDR also forming a lower high in October and breaking down with a gap in early February. The gap and trendline break are holding as XME established resistance at 55 the last few weeks. The SCTR failed to hold its resistance breakout in early February and moved to new lows recently. 



(click to view a live version of this chart)


Chart 2

Chart 3 shows the Steel ETF moving above its October high, which makes it the strongest of these three. However, SLX also broke down in early-mid February with a gap and then formed a small rising wedge. A break below wedge support would signal a continuation lower. The indicator window shows the SCTR breaking out in mid January, but falling back to low levels again and signalling relative weakness.



(click to view a live version of this chart)


Chart 3




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