Positive development Negative development No opinion 48% 46% 6% Yes, a threat No, not a threat No opinion 50% 48% 2% Yes, a threat No, not a threat No opinion 64% 33% 3% Source: China , Gallup Poll News Service, conducted on December 9-11, 2005, released on February 16, 2006 at www.gallup.com. Table 1-1: Gallup Poll on Americans' Perceptions of China Do you think the growth of China as a major economy is a positive or a negative development for the United States? Do you consider China to be a military threat to the United States, or not? Do you consider China to bean economic threat to the United States, or not? 12
CHAPTER TWO OPENING THE BLACK BOX CHINESE FOREIGN POLICY-MAKING Mao Zedong enabled Chinese to stand tall Deng Xiaoping let the people get rich the third generation leadership, with Jiang Zemin at its core, will enable China to become a strong country. – Zhang Wannian (The PRC is a distinctive actor in international relations (e.g., Solomon, 1999). Henry A. Kissinger (1999), well known as the man who quietly opened the door to normal relations with the PRC in 1971, describes in various places in his memoirs the strikingly different ways of diplomacy and negotiation by his Chinese counterparts. During the Cold War, the PRC is the only state in the world that not only allied with, but also had direct military confrontations against, both the US and the USSR. China’s strategic changes in its alliance policy during the bipolar confrontation played a key role in the balance of power and alliance formed between the Western capitalist camp and the Soviet communist camp. China’s permanent membership in the UN Security Council Cited in Lam (1999: 210) and Scobell (2000: 1). Zhang Wannian, one of the top People’s Liberation Army (PLA) hawkish leaders, is Vice President of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Military Commission (CMC). Zhang, among other protégés of Jiang Zemin, led the missile tests off Taiwan in 1995-1996. One of his well-known quotes is, Any form of Taiwan Independence is absolutely unacceptable 13
and recent accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO, among its extensive participation in international and regional organizations, also mark its compliance with the international norms and regimes and growing influence at the global level. Since opening up and reforming its economy in 1978, China has enjoyed, more than ever before, a rapidly growing economy in a peaceful environment with an ascending status in the world. As many observers have started to observe, the country, with so much potential, is on course for reinstating its great power status in history. This position had been lost with the rise of, and interventions by, the Western powers since the s. Meanwhile, Beijing has had to walk a fine line to maintain good relations with the major powers (e.g., the US, the EU, Russia, etc) and its Asia-Pacific neighbors (e.g., Japan, Taiwan, the two Koreas, India, Vietnam, etc. A brief reflection on the rapid ascent of Germany a century ago and the disaster that followed with World War I is enough to establish that point. For the reasons mentioned above, along with its reputation as a state about which little is known in terms of foreign policy-making, China becomes a priority for application of PH. This chapter attempts to review and synthesize the theoretical approaches and empirical studies on Chinese decision-making in nine foreign policy crises. Several important issues are addressed Who is the decision-maker in a given foreign policy crisis What are the primary considerations that seem to be given serious attention and discussion prior to the initial response to a crisis Are there major disagreements among the top decision-makers or factions about the final policy choice How can we tell the process by which the decision is made 14
Chinese foreign policy is particularly challenging to study not only because of the sheer size and long history of the country, but also given the complex range of relevant factors at the domestic and international levels. 5 The limited space here only allows fora discussion on aspects with direct impact on Chinese leaders decision-making in foreign affairs rather than a comprehensive review of the literature of Chinese foreign policy.