2009 (3) Goodchild, Anne, Eric Jessup and Edward McCormack

Lyk-Jensen, Stephanie Vincent. Forecasting Freight Flows

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Lyk-Jensen, Stephanie Vincent. Forecasting Freight Flows. Transport Reviews 31, no. 5 (2011): pp 603-624.

Abstract - Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment. This article models long-term dynamic physical trade flows and estimates a dynamic panel data model for foreign trade for the EU15 and two countries from the EFTA (European Free Trade Association) 1967–2002. The analysis suggests that a dynamic three-way-effects gravity equation is the best-fitted econometric model. The analysis uses a structural relationship to explain the structure of the exchange of the goods—a relationship that can be used in the year of forecast. This article also provides a new methodology for converting monetary aggregates into quantity aggregates. The resulting commodity growth rates constitute a valuable input to freight models for forecasting future capacity problems. http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01441647.2011.566984
Novak, David C. Nationwide Freight Generation Models : A Spatial Regression Approach. Networks and spatial economics (Online) 11, no. 1 (2011): p. [23]-41.


Nuzzolo, Agostino, Umberto Crisalli and Antonio Comi. Freight Policy Development: An Import-Export Transport Demand Model for the Italian Case, (2011) 14p.

Abstract - This paper presents a system of models for the estimation of international (import/export) freight flows by using a partial share approach. It allows the authors to simulate generation (for export), attraction (for import), distribution and modal split steps for the estimation of Origin-Destination matrices in quantities for different transportation modes. Aiming at predicting long term effects, the modelling system has been specified through easy-to-capture variables represented by level-of-service attributes and aggregate socio-economic variables, such as GDP and employee number. The modelling system was calibrated by means of data available from Italian and international organizations (e.g., Italian Institute of Statistics, EuroStat, World Trade Organisation, and Institute for the International Commerce).

European Transport Conference 2011Association for European TransportTransportation Research BoardGlasgow,Scotland StartDate:20111010 EndDate:20111012 Sponsors:Association for European Transport, Transportation Research Board - European Transport Conference 2011Association for European TransportTransportation Research BoardGlasgow,Scotland StartDate:20111010 EndDate:20111012 Sponsors:Association for European Transport, Transportation Research Board, Cation, http://abstracts.aetransport.org/paper/index/id/3778/confid/17

Nuzzoloa, Agostino, Umberto Crisallia and Antonio Comia. A Restocking Tour Model for the Estimation of O-D Freight Vehicle in Urban Areas. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences 20, (2011): pp 140-149.

Abstract - This paper presents some calibration developments of a system of models for the simulation of freight restocking journeys within urban areas. The model system allows us to define freight vehicle Origin-Destination (O-D) matrices. The journeys for restocking urban retail activities are modeled through the definition of the trip-chain order and the choice of the delivery location. The modeling system has been calibrated and validated on a dataset of more than 500 truck driver interviews carried out in the city center of Rome. http://pdn.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=MiamiImageURL&_cid=277811&_user=10&_pii=S1877042811013991&_check=y&_origin=article&_zone=toolbar&_coverDate=31-Dec-2011&view=c&originContentFamily=serial&wchp=dGLzVlB-zSkzV&md5=9d23af94f46e70208247f1b2d12a2d47/1-s2.0-S1877042811013991-main.pdf
Piotte, Jeremy and Bart Jourquin. An Agent Based Dynamic Road Freight Transport Demand Generation, (2011) 14p.

Abstract - Competition between freight and passenger transport for the use of the road infrastructure is an increasingly important problem. This research is carried out in the framework of the DIDAM (Disaggregated demand and assignment models for combined passengers and freight transport) research project which aims at proposing some advances in fundamental research in transportation modelling and analysis, and this paper presents some preliminary results obtained on the Belgian network. The DIDAM project's methodology is organized around two axes: on one hand, a disaggregated dynamic demand model for freight transport is proposed. In this model, the freight transport actors are represented by agents. These agents are extracted from existing databases and their behavior is then generated by means of a simulation that tries to represent the interactions between shippers and carriers who both try to minimize their costs. The carriers try to fill their trucks and to combine several trips to maximize their benefits (by minimizing the empty-trips for example). This step of the model faces a well-known optimization problem called "Traveling Salesman Problem" (TSP). In the meanwhile the shippers try to find the best transport opportunity by putting the carriers into competition. On the other hand, the Belgian road network is represented in a GIS based transport model software developed at FUCaM and called NODUS. Each arc of the network is associated with a dynamic cost function built using standard OD matrices for passenger transport combined with global traffic density data. By doing this, one takes into account the passenger flows everywhere and at every moment of the day. That way, the rush-hours are also taken into account. These dynamic cost functions are then used by the transporter-agents of the simulation that tries to minimize their costs. A time-dependent OD matrix for freight transport is built as result from this process. Finally, a prototype of a joint traffic assignment model is being developed. This new assignment procedure assigns the flow for each time-slice sequentially, keeping the still running flows from previous time slices into account. Still under development, this algorithm should provide the agents a feedback on their traveling time, which could be retained to allow them to change their habits if needed during a next trip. This paper will first present the time-dependent freight origin-destination matrices generation process, discussing the agent's generation, their characteristics and the implementation of their behavior in a simulation. Finally, the first time-dependent freight transport OD matrices built on the basis of this methodology will be assigned on the Belgian network using the experimental assignment model.

European Transport Conference 2011Association for European TransportTransportation Research BoardGlasgow,Scotland StartDate:20111010 EndDate:20111012 Sponsors:Association for European Transport, Transportation Research Board - European Transport Conference 2011Association for European TransportTransportation Research BoardGlasgow,Scotland StartDate:20111010 EndDate:20111012 Sponsors:Association for European Transport, Transportation Research Board, Cation, http://abstracts.aetransport.org/paper/index/id/3712/confid/17

Tavasszy, Lorant, Michiel Minderhoud, Theo Notteboom and Jean-Francois Perrin. A Strategic Network Choice Model for Global Container Flows: Specification, Estimation and Application. Journal of Transport Geography 19, no. 6 (2011): pp 1163-1172.

Abstract - Container flows have been booming for decades. Expectations for the 21st century are less certain due to changes in climate and energy policy, increasing congestion and increased mobility of production factors. This paper presents a strategic model for the movement of containers on a global scale in order to analyse possible shifts in future container transport demand and the impacts of transport policies thereon. The model predicts yearly container flows over the world's shipping routes and passing through 437 container ports around the world, based on trade information to and from all countries, taking into account more than 800 maritime container liner services. The model includes import, export and transhipment flows of containers at ports, as well as hinterland flows. The model was calibrated against observed data and is able to reproduce port throughput statistics rather accurately. The paper also introduces a scenario analysis to understand the impact of future, uncertain developments in container flows on port throughput. The scenarios include the effects of slow steaming, an increase in land based shipping costs and an increased use of large scale infrastructures such as the Trans-Siberian rail line and the opening of Arctic shipping routes. These scenarios provide an indication of the uncertainty on the expected port throughputs, with a particular focus on the port of Rotterdam in the Netherlands. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0966692311000524

West, Robert, Douglas Rubin and Juan Carlos Villa. "Identification and Evaluation of Freight Demand Factors." 159p: Transportation Research Board, 2011.

Zhang, Lei and Chenfeng Xiong. Multi-Modal Inter-Regional Travel Demand Estimation, (2011) 20[p.

Abstract - Since the passage of the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA) in 1991, a significant number of state highway agencies have started to develop and implement statewide travel demand models to meet policy and legislative development needs. Current and future multimodal freight flows are available from the Freight Analysis Framework (FAF), to analyze national freight policy. On the passenger travel front, however, multimodal inter-regional travel demand data are still lacking while most statewide models fail to model the long-distance trips. The lack of this multimodal passenger inter-regional travel demand data limits the ability to conduct quantitative analysis for infrastructure investment and operational effectiveness needs at the national/statewide level. Drawing from previous academic research and practical projects around the world, this paper reviews several methodologies for multimodal inter-regional travel demand estimation at the national level. This international research scan is also crucial for the development of statewide travel demand models by supplementing all the currently available syntheses of domestic practices with a more international scope. The nations with their models reviewed by this paper share many similarities with a typical U.S. state, such as population, geographical scale, and the need for studying long-distance trips and other policy-oriented analyses, which further adds up the necessity of this review. Alternative approaches toward a national/statewide multi-modal inter-regional travel analysis tool, as well as the data limitations and improvement strategies are discussed.

Transportation Research Board 90th Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC,USA StartDate:20110123 EndDate:20110127 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board - Transportation Research Board 90th Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC,USA StartDate:20110123 EndDate:20110127 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board, Cation,

2012 (19)

Alstadt, Brian and Jeff Coughlin. Driving the Train: Macro-Based Framework for Commodity Forecasting. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, no. 2288 (2012): pp 19–27.

Abstract - Patterns of freight movement result from economic exchange. That is, buying and selling activities along complex global supply chains drive infrastructure-level demand. Yet commodity forecasting techniques used in freight plans and port studies frequently ignore these broad drivers. The fundamental thesis of this paper is that the macro level—the global macroeconomic perspective—is increasingly important to making reasonable freight projections at the micro level—the infrastructure level. This paper therefore has two goals. First, it briefly reviews the state of the practice in freight forecasting and ultimately concludes that the macro level is noticeably absent in most forecasting methods and reviewed studies. Second, the paper presents a method of generating county-level commodity forecasts that embody macro drivers and trends. Specifically, the approach ties together three critical pieces of information: (a) a county-based social accounting structure representing detailed factors of economic supply and demand; (b) a set of domestic macroeconomic forecasts providing future industry-by-industry production trends that recognizes spatial growth patterns, changing technology, relative industry growth, and broad forces affecting final demand; and (c) a forecast of U.S. international trade, recognizing differential economic growth of trading partners as well as pressures from international competition and currency fluctuations. The result of this methodology is county-level trade forecasts (in dollars) that are analytically (not statistically) tied to macroeconomic growth trends. These forecasts can be used alone for sketch or policy-level analysis, or they can be combined with meso- and micro-level information and models for comprehensive freight forecasting at the infrastructure level. The method presented is being implemented in the Transportation Economic Development Impact System, a web-based analysis system used in planning major transportation investments in the United States and Canada. http://dx.doi.org/10.3141/2288-03
Bujanda, Arturo, Juan Carlos Villa and Jon Williams. Development of Statewide Freight Flow Assignment with Freight Analysis Framework: Learning from Case Study on International Trade Corridors in Texas. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, no. 2285 (2012): pp 155–166.

Abstract - This research presents a methodology for estimating freight flows along corridors serving international trade. A methodology for disaggregating regional flows from the FHWA Freight Analysis Framework (FAF3) to the state level was developed and applied to the state of Texas. To keep international trade moving in a timely and efficient manner, it is important to have accurate information identifying and anticipating capacity shortfalls and congestion nodes. As trade levels increase, the strain on existing infrastructure serving international trade only worsens; therefore, this information is important for improving strategic investment decisions. Findings from the literature are presented about the FAF3 structure and existing methodologies to estimate freight flows at statewide and regional levels. A methodology was developed to disaggregate national FAF3 data and then to assign and estimate the tons of international freight flows through statewide roadways and railroads. The international trade corridors in Texas are used as a case study to apply the methodology and estimate current and future freight demand. Results from the case study demonstrate encouraging findings about this methodology. Conclusions and recommendations to refine and improve this methodology and the FAF3 are provided. http://dx.doi.org/10.3141/2285-18
Cantillo, Victor Manuel, Miguel Angel Jaller and Jose Holguin-Veras. Development of National Freight Demand Model with Limited Data and Resources, (2012) 13p.

Abstract - This paper proposes a freight demand modeling framework with minimum data requirements that is suitable for developing countries, where there is lack of complete freight data or the resources to conduct comprehensive freight demand data collection efforts. The framework is developed as a variant of the four step modeling process with additional steps to estimate traffic flows from freight flows and to consider empty trips. The steps required for the practical implementation of the framework for the case of the Country of Colombia are discussed. For each step, data, data sources and modeling methodologies used are described. A description is provided about the data limitations and the measures taken to complement the available data. From the implementation, the authors identify a set of advantages derived from the modeling approaches considered and suggestions for improvement.

Transportation Research Board 91st Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC,USA StartDate:20120122 EndDate:20120126 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board - Transportation Research Board 91st Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC,USA StartDate:20120122 EndDate:20120126 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board, Cation,

Carrion, Migdalia, Claire Guzman, Dan Seedah, Jolanda Prozzi and C. Michael Walton. User Manual for the Relational Multimodal Freight Database, (2012), 17p.

Abstract - This document was developed as part of Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) project 0-6297 entitled: Freight Planning Factors Impacting Texas Commodity Flows. The research team developed a Relational Multimodal Freight Database that can capture relevant publicly-available freight variables required for updating TxDOT freight models and studies. From the Multimodal Freight Database, TxDOT is able to identify any missing data that the public databases do not capture. The missing data can be obtained through purchasing a commercial database or by collecting the relevant data. This user manual provides step-by-step guidance on how to use the TxDOT Relational Multimodal Freight Database Software, as well as information on how the database was developed, and the public databases from which the data were extracted. http://library.ctr.utexas.edu/digitized/products/0-6297-P3_UserManual.pdf
Chinnam, Ratna Babu and Alper E. Murat. Enhancing Jit Freight Logistics Impacted by Transportation System Projects under Its, (2012), 18p.

Abstract - The authors developed an analysis methodology to support effective planning of JIT freight logistics in transportation networks impacted by system improvement projects. Currently, shippers and carriers do not have the necessary tools to predict and account for the traffic congestion impact of construction projects. Existing models used by shippers/carriers rely on historical traffic flow/congestion data from ITS and other sources. There is need for predictive tools that can be used for assessing the congestion and traffic flow impact of construction projects. These predictive tools are integrated within route planning models of shippers/carriers. The authors designed practical, scalable tools that use readily available and up to date traffic flow data from ITS operators such as Traffic.com and Michigan Intelligent Transportation Systems (MITS) Center. The flow data is used to estimate OD matrices at the source/sink nodes of the network under consideration. Given the transportation improvement project scope and extent/corridor, the authors use estimated OD matrices for estimation of the future state of network traffic flows through equilibrium/traffic assignment models. The methods are designed for seamless integration into existing JIT freight planning models/tools. http://mioh-utc.udmercy.edu/research/sc-42/pdf/MIOH_UTC_SC42_2012-Final_Rpt_Enhancing_JIT_Freight_Logistics_etc.pdf


Chow, Joseph Y. J. and Stephen G. Ritchie. A Freight Transshipment Network Model for Forecasting Commodity and Cyclic Commercial Vehicle Flows, (2012) 30p.

Abstract - A freight forecast model that assigns commodity flows to cyclic commercial vehicles is proposed in this study. The commercial vehicles are formulated to traverse in cycles and include loading and unloading costs at zone centroids. Empty hauls can be tracked, as can transshipment flows by commodity type and by inbound and outbound modes. A linear programming formulation is proposed as well as nonlinear objectives for link and transshipment congestion. An inverse nonlinear programming approach using Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions is formulated to calibrate the congestion parameters of this model such that observed flow variables are optimal. Because the forward problem is convex and composed of only equality or non-negativity constraints, it can be readily solved with classical nonlinear optimization methods instead of treating the inverse problem as a nonlinear complementarity problem. The models are tested on a 6-node network with up to 54 transshipment activities. The model is shown to be sensitive to supply side changes on links and transshipment facilities or to fuel cost changes. The appendix includes an inverse traffic assignment problem using the inverse nonlinear programming method.

Transportation Research Board 91st Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC,USA StartDate:20120122 EndDate:20120126 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board - Transportation Research Board 91st Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC,USA StartDate:20120122 EndDate:20120126 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board, Cation,

Ferguson, Mark, Hanna Maoh, Justin Ryan, Pavlos Kanaroglou and Taha Hossein Rashidi. Transferability and Enhancement of a Microsimulation Model for Estimating Urban Commercial Vehicle Movements. Journal of Transport Geography 24, (2012): pp 358-369.

Abstract - This study examines the transferability of a microsimulation framework to estimate the movements of commercial vehicles in urban areas. The authors build on the pioneering efforts of Hunt and Stefan (2007) from Calgary, Alberta by considering three types of movements: tour-based; fleet allocator; and internal/external. Some sub-models from Calgary are transferred, while others are newly developed. The framework is implemented and validated for the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) as a case study. A list of 185,790 records of individual business establishments in the GTHA was acquired from InfoCanada to conduct the microsimulations. The achieved results are promising with favorable correlations between observed and simulated commercial vehicle flows. The authors conclude that the modeling framework from Calgary can be transferred and used to depict the travel patterns of commercial vehicle movements in other urban areas. This can be beneficial when refined and costly data are unavailable to study urban commercial vehicle movements. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0966692312001251
Guo, Jessica Y. and Qi Gong. Understanding and Modeling Freight Stakeholder Behavior, (2012), 76p.

Abstract - This project developed a conceptual model of private-sector freight stakeholder decisions and interactions for forecasting freight demands in response to key policy variables. Using East Central Wisconsin as a study area, empirical models were developed for selected elements of this conceptual model that are fundamentally significant to the production/attraction, spatial distribution, and modal split of freight movements. The empirical results formulated the recommendations to the East Central Wisconsin Regional Planning Commission (ECWRPC) on freight planning and demand model enhancement. http://wisdotresearch.wi.gov/wp-content/uploads/WisDOT-Policy-Research-0092-09-22-final-report.pdf




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