2009 (3) Goodchild, Anne, Eric Jessup and Edward McCormack

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Freight Modeling Reference List:

2009 (3)

Goodchild, Anne, Eric Jessup and Edward McCormack. Requirements for a Washington State Freight Simulation Model, (2009), 49p.

Abstract - Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT) and TransNow have already allocated $190,000 to researchers at the University of Washington (UW) and the Washington State University (WSU) to explore the flow of goods through the transportation system, the dynamics of that flow in response to disruption, and the economic impact to the industries supported by that flow. This on-going research, which will develop a geographic information system (GIS)-based data flow network, will help increase our understanding of the sensitivity of economic productivity to infrastructure availability, laying the groundwork for reducing the sensitivity and improving the resilience of the transportation system. The requested TransNow funding will be linked to the WSU/UW research effort (and completed by the same team) and will develop specifications for a simulation-based methodology. The results from this project will assist WSDOT in determining the utility and feasibility of simulation tools for exploring freight system resiliency as well as assist in planning and engineering decisions. The project will develop the requirements for a simulation-based methodology that can be used to estimate the impacts of freight flows generated by different economic industry sectors on the transportation system within the State of Washington. The following issues will be addressed: Estimated cost to build the model; Data requirements; Long-term maintenance of the model; Geographic scope of the model; and Model methodology. http://www.transnow.org/publication/final-reports/documents/TNW2009-11.pdf
Munuzuri, Jesus, Pablo Cortes, Luis Onieva and Jose Guadix. Modeling Freight Delivery Flows: Missing Link of Urban Transport Analysis. Journal of Urban Planning and Development 135, no. 3 (2009): pp 91-99.

Abstract - Urban freight transport has barely incited any modeling efforts when compared to passenger cars and public transport, which is mainly due to the lack of available data and the complexity of the delivery route patterns and the involved decision making. The authors present here a modeling approach consisting of a demand model followed by an entropy maximization procedure to estimate an origin-destination matrix for urban freight transport vehicles, both for business to business and home deliveries, during the morning peak hour. This approach requires relatively few data inputs in comparison with other existing models and represents an initial step toward the inclusion of freight delivery models in overall urban transport planning. The application of the model is illustrated with a case study in the city of Seville, with its efficiency tested by the validation of the results using actual traffic counts.
Puckett, S. M. Improving Our Understanding of Freight Travel Decision Making: Motivations, Constraints, Incentives and Interactions, (2009) 41p (resource papers).

Abstract - Key advances have been made in recent years relating to the modelling of decision-making process underlying the movement of freight. In the area of network modelling, micro-simulation techniques of freight travel choices, modelling of land-use/transport network feedback effects, and accounting for physical characteristics of logistics networks have added important structural behavioural elements to models from which standard models centering on techniques such as assigning commodity flows have only abstracted. Furthermore, recent empirical applications have added to our understanding of the relative merit that freight-related transport policies could have in achieving desired objectives. Developments in both network modelling and empirical freight travel behaviour applications have extended the manner in which analysts account for multiple behavioural dimensions that shape how freight is ultimately carried. These dimensions include forces motivating freight stakeholders to enact particular strategies, constraints that restrict a subset of potential strategies from being observed, incentives to encourage desired behaviour, and the impacts of interactivity across interdependent freight travel decision makers. This paper highlights some key developments that have been made in these areas, supplementing discussions of advances in research with empirical tools that may show promise in improving our ability to faithfully represent determinants of freight travel behaviour in network models and policy applications.

International Conference on Travel Behaviour Research, 12th, 2009, Jaipur, Rajasthan, India StartDate:00000 EndDate:00000 - International Conference on Travel Behaviour Research, 12th, 2009, Jaipur, Rajasthan, India StartDate:00000 EndDate:00000, Cation, http://iatbr2009.asu.edu/ocs/index.php/iatbr/2009/schedConf/resource

2010 (9)

Al-Azzawi, Marwan. A Freight Transport Model for Scotland, (2010) 14p.

Abstract - This paper describes how the Freight Model for Scotland (FMS) is a multi-modal transport model, specifically designed to model freight transportation. It covers the entire land area of Scotland, including the Scottish islands, and also has connections to major external freight trading areas such as England, Ireland, Wales and international origins/destinations (OD). FMS has been developed independently originally as an in-house system to make good use of available transport data, and has been applied to many studies over the years. Like all good models it is continuously updated with new data and improvements based on its application in various projects. All four modes of freight transport are modeled (road, rail, sea and air) and the Scottish network includes all the main road links (with some local roads), railway lines and terminals, strategic and medium-sized ports and associated routes, and airports where freight cargoes are handled. The model zone system is capable of covering all 32 local authority areas in Scotland as well as the 7 Regional Transport Partnership (RTP) regions, thereby providing the basis to test the effects of schemes and policies/strategies at all levels of Government in Scotland (local, regional and national). A particular feature of FMS is the development of a comprehensive base year database of freight OD movements across the country, which can produce input datasets for specific local areas, regions and corridors. The total freight market is segmented by 10 different groups of freight commodity cargos to take into account the different characteristics of the freight market and their varying sensitivities to changes in land-uses and economic factors. This allows for a more refined and accurate modeling process and these cargo-groups can be adjusted to reflect different socio-economic scenarios when forecasting. The model brings together a series of techniques that draws on published research by others, into an integrated package using industry-standard modeling software and procedures based on Government guidance to ensure results are based on methods which are well tested and understood. The model consists of the following applications: - Generation and Distribution sub-model:– a Base Year OD database generates a matrix of observed flows between model zones. The outputs are freight tonnes for each of the 10 different groups of commodities for each OD movement in the model. Future changes are estimated using land-use and economic data in each zone to produce Future Year matrices; (1) Mode Choice sub-model: a series of disaggregated logit models use network skims and user-defined data (e.g. costs/charges) to adjust Future Year OD matrices by modes of transport; (2) Assignment sub-model: a detailed network-based model identifies route choice and assigns the OD matrices to a multi-modal network for predictions at the network level. For more accurate modeling, each of the 10 groups of freight commodities are assigned separately to take into account varying levels of sensitivities to factors such as value-of-time, costs, capacity, etc; and (3) Evaluation sub-models: a series of modules which estimate the impacts of assigned flows on safety (e.g. road accidents, etc), environment (e.g. emissions, noise, Sensitive Lorry Miles, etc), accessibility indices, network performance (e.g. tonnes-kms, levels of service, capacity utilization, etc) and transport economic impacts (e.g. time savings, vehicle operating costs, revenues, carbon costs, etc). The model can be used to provide data for a variety of tests ranging from individual project / scheme evaluation to policy / strategy development. The above features in FMS have been integrated into a complete modeling system. An important factor has been to maximize practical useability through a graphical user interface (GUI) and geographical information system (GIS) to allow presentation of results to the lay-person in easy-to-understand figures and plans. The GUI allows the user to set up and run several model batches, taking care of all the out ut file management, increasing productivity. Scott Wilson Ltd has considerable hands-on experience of freight modeling and studies, and the modular approach to FMS has enabled the outputs from each sub-model to be benchmarked against identifiable features and trends in the freight market, enabling a good representation of how the freight market actually works. Model validation exercises were carried out and overall results show there is a good match between model outputs and observed flows. The paper concludes with a review of some of the problem areas encountered in developing models of this type, including the particular issues arising from emerging changes in the freight marketplace.

European Transport Conference, 2010Association for European TransportGlasgow,Scotland,United Kingdom StartDate:20101011 EndDate:20101013 Sponsors:Association for European Transport - European Transport Conference, 2010Association for European TransportGlasgow,Scotland,United Kingdom StartDate:20101011 EndDate:20101013 Sponsors:Association for European Transport, Cation, http://abstracts.aetransport.org/paper/index/id/3545/confid/16

Anderson, Michael D., Gregory A. Harris, Lauren Jennings Neppel and Lisa S. Blanchard. Using a Federal Database and Local Industry Sector Knowledge to Develop Future Freight Forecasts, (2010) 9p.

Abstract - Freight transportation is often not explicitly modeled, but is included implicitly as a percentage of non-home-based trips, which has nothing to do with the actual behavior of freight. This incorporation has the potential to develop future traffic forecasts that are unreasonable and potentially will lead to poor roadway infrastructure investment decisions. The federal freight flow data contained in the Freight Analysis Framework Version 2.2 (FAF2) Database has the potential to improve the forecast year accuracy, however, use of the database itself is often suspect and the large aggregation level of the database usually makes it impractical. This paper examines a process to systematically improve the forecasted volumes from the FAF2 using local industry sector knowledge to a potential level that is acceptable for urban transportation modeling. A case study is shown using Mobile, AL to demonstrate the process of adjusting the FAF2 data to account for industries located in the community. The paper concludes that with appropriate adjustment and application, the FAF2 database can be used for in forecasting future travel demand in a smaller urban area.

12th National Conference on Transportation Planning for Small and Medium-Sized CommunitiesTransportation Research BoardFederal Highway AdministrationFederal Transit AdministrationWilliamsburg,VA,USA StartDate:20100922 EndDate:20100924 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board, Federal Highway Administration, Federal Transit Administration - 12th National Conference on Transportation Planning for Small and Medium-Sized CommunitiesTransportation Research BoardFederal Highway AdministrationFederal Transit AdministrationWilliamsburg,VA,USA StartDate:20100922 EndDate:20100924 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board, Federal Highway Administration, Federal Transit Administration, Cation,

Beavis, P. C. Urban Freight Intermodal Transport: An Analogue Theory Using Electrical Circuits, (2010), 412P.

Abstract - Container seaports co-located with populations in Australian cities generate and attract inexorable, increasing discrete- diffuse flows which lead to landside access constraints and conflicts. Network models in freight transport are deficient in addressing demand management initiatives to ecologically re-structure the landside container freight task. Conventional freight planning stages road building and port expansion to facilitate mobility and container storage, and a vicious, inefficient cycle ensues. The miss-specification of modelling and planning frameworks is due to a conceptualisation of node impedance as a constraint phenomenon rather than as a necessary measure of precision. This thesis pioneers an activity-based approach to theoretically support investigations towards the adoption of urban freight intermodalism. (a)
Chow, Joseph Y. J., Choon Heon Yang and Amelia C. Regan. State-of-the-Art of Freight Forecast Modeling: Lessons Learned and the Road Ahead. Transportation: Planning, Policy, Research, Practice 37, no. 6 (2010): pp 1011-1030.

Abstract - The volume of goods shipped by trucks and railroads is expected to continue to increase, making accurate estimations and forecasts of freight movements essential. This paper reviews and evaluates freight forecasting models using California as a case study. The authors suggest several model alternatives including an aggregate commodity flow model, a disaggregate regional logistics model and a hybrid regional logistics model with a truck touring model. Although the hybrid model seems promising in its ability to handle the widest range of policy questions and investment decision options, the data requirements would be extensive. Advances in applying data mining techniques to available or easily developed data sources could help overcome this obstacle. However, new problems such as reconciling the outputs of multiple models for consistency may be introduced. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11116-010-9281-1
Deane, Gordon, Ian William, Yan Zhu, John Pharoah, Diana Kabeizi and Bashir Khan. Film - a Model of Freight and Lgv Movements in London, (2010) 19p.

Abstract - This paper will discuss how a multi-modal freight model has been developed. An innovative feature is its representation of all movements in light goods vehicles (LGVs): (1) commuter travel; (2) service related trips; (3) goods collection & delivery. It forecasts future freight traffic in London to inform TfL’s transport planning decisions up to 2031. The model outputs are freight flows and tonnages by origin and destination, commodity type, logistic stage and transport mode. The model has: 700 zones (400 within the M25 motorway); 6 road freight vehicle types in addition to rail and shipping; and uses 16 commodities split into 3 distribution stages. It uses a spatial input-output model to determine the pattern of demand for freight travel based on the economic structure of the regions of the United Kingdom (UK). The model includes the stages of freight generation, distribution, mode choice and assignment to detailed road and rail networks. The model will be used to examine policy measures that impact within London on freight and logistics services. Its output matrices will also be used as an input to Transport for London (TfL’s) multi-modal model. This model replaces the current simpler freight forecasting tool used by TfL. An innovative feature of this model is its representation of all movements in light goods vehicles (LGVs). LGV traffic has been the major source of growth in traffic (+33%) in Great Britain over the last decade, contrasting with +5% in cars, -7% in HGVs. Within London, LGV traffic has continued to grow, whereas car and HGV traffic have declined in recent years, despite its rapid growth in population and jobs. The three main components of LGV movements are forecast separately within the model: 1) Commuter travel (37% of trips in company owned vans in Great Britain) 2) Service related trips (27% of trips) 3) Goods collection and delivery (32% of trips) Trips for personal purposes within LGVs mainly occur outside working hours and are limited in number and so are of less relevance. The pattern of freight movements within a major conurbation such as London is rather different to the national traffic pattern and so it introduces special modeling requirements. London has a large dynamic service sector and much of the employment within the manufacturing sector is engaged in administrative rather than production of goods activities. We have made innovative use of a variety of data sources to provide the foundations to determine the pattern of production and of consumption of goods within London. The model explicitly distinguishes primary, secondary and tertiary distribution stages for a wide range of individual commodities. For tertiary distribution it represents the multi-drop pattern of collection and delivery that is carried out mainly in LGVs and smaller HGVs. These are quite different in their trip lengths, vehicle types and time of day patterns to the long haul primary movements to distribution centers in and around London that are carried by rail, water or large fully loaded artics.

European Transport Conference, 2010Association for European TransportGlasgow,Scotland,United Kingdom StartDate:20101011 EndDate:20101013 Sponsors:Association for European Transport - European Transport Conference, 2010Association for European TransportGlasgow,Scotland,United Kingdom StartDate:20101011 EndDate:20101013 Sponsors:Association for European Transport, Cation, http://etcproceedings.org/paper/film-a-model-of-freight-and-lgv-movements-in-london

Facanha, Cristiano, Jeffrey Ang-Olson, Louis Browning, Seth Hartley, Andrew Papson and Ed Carr. Evaluation of Methods, Models, and Parameters to Represent Freight in Air Quality and Greenhouse Gas Models, (2010) 17p.

Abstract - The objective of this research is to review and evaluate the current methods, models, and parameters used to generate air emissions information from freight transportation activities and determine its suitability for decision making and public education. This research includes a detailed review of the current state of the practice for estimating freight emissions across all modes, geographic scales, and temporal dimensions. The research catalogs how emissions estimates are used and applied by public and private sector stakeholders. Strengths and weaknesses of current practices, as well as opportunities for improvement including new measurement techniques and data sources are identified. The scope of this research includes all freight modes and all types of air emissions (greenhouse gases, criteria pollutants, and air toxics). The research covers all freight activity in the U.S. The research focuses on estimates of both current/recent freight emissions as well as forecasts of future emissions.

Transportation Research Board 89th Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC,USA StartDate:20100110 EndDate:20100114 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board - Transportation Research Board 89th Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC,USA StartDate:20100110 EndDate:20100114 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board, Cation,

Prasanna, Viktor and Amol Bakshi. Integrated Modeling and Simulation Framework for Freight Transportation in Metropolitan Areas, (2010), 22p.

Abstract - Globalization has led to an increase in the volume of traffic flows by all transportation modes, contributing to congestion, traffic crashes, and pollution in metropolitan areas around ports, rail yards, and airports. The authors note that simulation modeling offers researchers the opportunity to evaluate specific aspects of traffic congestion, but suggest that a framework for integrated traffic modeling and simulation which can support the integration of a multitude of simulation tools is needed to capture the complex transportation problems the country faces, and to improve transportation efficiency and capacity. In this paper, the authors describe a semantic framework for integrated traffic modeling and simulation. A domain ontology acts as the key component enabling model and application integration. This ontology also forms the basis for intuitive user interfaces that allow engineers to refine their solutions. http://www.metrans.org/research/final/08-04%20Final.pdf
Russo, Francesco and Antonio Comi. A Modelling System to Simulate Goods Movements at an Urban Scale. Transportation: Planning, Policy, Research, Practice 37, no. 6 (2010): pp 987-1009.

Abstract - A significant share of traffic in urban areas involves the movement of goods. However, few studies have treated the overall problem of urban freight transportation simulation. This paper has two objectives. First, it seeks to categorize the main classes of urban freight transport measures and to select ad hoc criteria to analyze the main models of urban good movements and logistics in order to verify whether the models are capable of assessing the classified measures ex ante. Second, the paper seeks to identify freight movements in urban and metropolitan areas and relative decision makers, in order to propose an integrated modeling system that allows linkage between final consumer choices and restocking choices made by retailers so that measures to mitigate the negative effects of freight transport can be assessed. Goods movements are examined at two levels: (1) analysis of commodity flows, in terms of quantity, generated by the consumption of commodities; and (2) analysis of commodity flows, in terms of vehicles, due to restocking. The first level allows for the calculation of the goods quantity flows due to consumption and restocking; the second level allows for the determination of the service, vehicles used and target time, as well as the route chosen for restocking sales outlets in order to estimate vehicle flows on the urban/metropolitan transportation network. The proposed modeling system is a multi-step model and considers a disaggregated approach for each decision level. This modeling system can be used as a decision support tool to appraise the impacts of policies concerning urban freight transportation. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11116-010-9276-y
Samimi, Amir, Abolfazl Mohammadian and Kazuya Kawamura. A Behavioral Freight Movement Microsimulation Model: Method and Data. Transportation Letters: the International Journal of Transportation Research 2, no. 1 (2010).

Abstract - The framework of freight demand modeling has been the conventional four-step approach, in the past. Activity-based models that better capture the behavior and decision-making process are emerging in the passenger travel modeling to address the drawbacks of the four-step approach. This paper proposes an activity-based freight modeling framework and discuses its data needs. The framework consists of five modules: firm generation, supply chain replication, shipment forecasting, logistic decisions, and network analysis. Similar to the activity-based approach in the passenger travel modeling, in which individuals or households are the agents of the models, individual firms or a group of firms with similar characteristics, are the main players in the proposed framework. Public data sources that could be used in the U.S. to make this framework running are also introduced and a supplementary establishment survey is proposed as a cost-effective way to satisfy the data needs of the framework. Notes - (Kouros)

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