欧洲国家与资本主义发展 现代国家与现代经济的崛起 现代国际政经体系的互动 现代国际政经体系内的生存与发展 朱天飚 http://www.sg.pku.edu.cn/dpe/tianbiao.htm 现代国家与现代经济的崛起 欧洲国家与资本主义发展 之一 现代国家与经济崛起的微观基础 背景:科技的限度 “在中世纪早、中期(约至1200年),欧洲是一个物质权力很弱的世界。没有人有多少军队,没有人有多少有效力的武器,也没有人有多少钱。” 资源的集中点:教士、商人、贵族、国王 小结: 国王(武装)、贵族(土地)、商人(贸易)与教士(信仰)的互动 早期欧洲的政治、经济形态 分裂与割据 军事力量与经济力量的不同分布 宗教势力与政治分裂 封建的生产方式 地方贸易与远程贸易 宗教势力与贸易发展 现代经济的形成(1) 商品生产 生产资料的私人垄断占有 劳动力的自由买卖及其与生产资料的分离 贸易与政治割据 从地方与远程(互补性)贸易到国内(竞争性)贸易 市场竞争、现代经济与国家 现代国家的形成(1) 持久性 残酷性 国家机器的专业化与职业化 国家形式的同化趋势 国家的意愿与自主性 现代国家(modern state) 民族国家(nation-state) “有机的”国家(organic state) 现代经济的形成(2) 开辟国内市场:军事竞争与国家强化的结果 推动新的生产方式:军事竞争与国家财政的需求(1) 保护产权:军事竞争与国家财政的需求(2) 促进资本积累:军事竞争与国家财政的需求(3) 现代经济的扩散:军事竞争与示范效应 现代国家的形成(2) 宗教势力的衰落 绝对主义(Absolutism) 宪政主义(Constitutionalism) 重商主义(Mercantilism) 海外扩张 小结 贸易不一定能引发现代经济 现代国家与现代经济在形成过程中相辅相成、缺一不可 持续的军事竞争是根本动力 宗教力量的退却 欧洲的崛起:是奇迹、还是失衡?是必然、还是偶然? 现代国际政经体系的互动 欧洲国家与资本主义发展 之二 现代国家系统(1) 现代国家与现代经济的共同作用 现代国家体系的两面性:残酷性与规则性 规则性的基础:主权国家、相互承认、被认同的等级、频繁交往的工具、法律的框架以及保卫共同利益的手段 –”力量平衡”(balance of power)的形成 1648年威斯特伐利亚(Westphalia)和约 现代国家系统(2) Wallerstein的研究:荷兰(1618年至1815年)、英国(1815年至1945年)和美国(1914年之后) Modelski的研究:葡萄牙(1494年至1580年)、荷兰(1580年至1688年)、英国(1688年至1914年)和美国(1914年之后) 国内机制:与西班牙、法国的比较 海外扩张:与葡萄牙、荷兰的比较 国际市场 Kondratieff 的研究 对1780年至1920年生产和价格数据的研究 第一个长周期的上升期是从十八世纪八十年代末或九十年代初至1810年到1817年间,下降期是从1810年到1817年间至1844年到1851年间; 第二个长周期的上升期是从1844年到1851年间至1870年到1875年间,下降期是从1870年到1875年间至1890年到1896年间; 第三个长周期的上升期是从1890年到1896年间至1914年到1920年间,下降期则是从1914年到1920年间开始。 熊彼特(Schumpeter) 的研究 从技术创新的角度来观察国际市场的周期性变化 以棉纺和炼铁产业为主导产业的周期(十八世纪八十年代至1817年) 以铁路、蒸汽机和炼钢产业为主导产业的周期(十九世纪四十年代至1875年) 以及以电机、化工和内燃机产业为主导产业的周期(十九世纪九十年代至1920年) 更有学者把汽车、塑料、电子产业为主导产业的周期算作第四周期(1940年至1970年)、把网络算作当今的一个主导产业。 国家系统与国际市场 Goldstein 的研究:主要争霸战争与价格指数重大变化的相关性 1618年至1648年的“三十年战争”使荷兰成为世界霸权 1793年至1815年的拿破仑战争使英国成为世界霸权 1914年至1945年两次世界大战则把美国推上霸主的地位 Arrighi和Silver 的研究:霸权的兴衰与解决市场发展中遇到的重大问题的相关性 意大利北部城市国家:以金钱来换取保护 荷兰:以贸易强国—使军事保护内部化 英国:以国内生产强国—使生产内部化 美国:以跨国生产强国—使国际生产内部化 英国霸权下的国际经济体系 贸易:互补性贸易与竞争性贸易 金融:金本位、国际收支平衡、国际金融资本的流动 英国的衰落:国际负担与国内制度 体系的衰落: “通货紧缩的趋势”与“体系重合” 英、美、德占世界贸易额的百分比 国家/年 1880 1990 1913 英国 23 20 17 美国 10 11 11 德国 10 13 13 英、美、德占世界制造业产值的百分比 国家/年 1880 1990 1913 英国 22.9 18.5 13.6 美国 17.4 23.6 32.0 德国 8.5 13.2 14.8 英、美、德钢铁总产量
(百万吨,1890年指数为生铁产量,以后为钢产量) 国家/年 1890 1990 1913 英国 8.0 5.0 6.5 美国 9.3 10.3 26.5 德国 4.1 6.3 13.6 英国以后的国际经济体系 作为霸主的美国 “双重运动”(double movement)与“嵌入性自由主义 ”(embedded liberalism ) 布林顿森林体制(the Bretton Woods system) 小结与启示 现代国家系统的两面性 国际市场的中心-边缘关系 现代国家系统与国际市场的互动 英国体系的崛起与衰落 启示(1):“体系重合”、“体系分离”与美国体系的发展 启示(2):“双重运动”与全球化 现代国际政经体系内的生存与发展 欧洲国家与资本主义发展 之三 发展战略 背景:体系内的生存与竞争 选择:外援、外债、外资、外贸、盘剥农业 战略: (1)出口导向 (2)进口替代 先发展国家:英国 国家与社会力量的平衡 早期的进口替代战略与重商主义政策 1846年后的出口导向战略 对外经济战略 (1)对殖民地 (2)对半独立国家 (3)对主要竞争者 后发展国家(1) 第一代后发展国家:美国、比利时(19世纪中期) 第二代后发展国家:法国、德国(19世纪晚期) 第三代后发展国家:俄国、日本(20世纪初期) 后发劣势与优势 从银行到国家:强组织力的趋势 从分权到集权:后发展国家的专制趋势 从小型企业到产业集团:工业组织的演变 后发展国家(2) 移民国家:开发问题 原住民国家:土地问题 被殖民国家:民族解放问题 发展道路:民主、改良与革命 发展战略:国家、出口导向与进口替代 后发展国家:小结与思考 越后发展越需强组织力 越有土地问题越需强组织力 越多运用进口替代战略越需强组织力 资本集中与生产效率 赶超与领先 政府与市场 美国 德国 俄国 – 苏联 日本 总结 现代国家与资本主义经济相辅相成、共同崛起 现代国际政经体系的全球扩张 体系内国家与经济发展的深刻联系 参考信息 朱天飚 著,《比较政治经济学》(北京大学出版社,2006年)。 第二、三、四章。 2007年春季研究生课: 比较政治经济学(朱天飚) 国际政治经济学(傅军)
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Daniel Verdier, “Domestic responses to capital market internationalization under the gold standard, 1870-1914,” International Organization 52(1), 1998.
美国霸权下的国际经济体系 The American Hegemonic System
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Mark Blyth, Great Transformations: Economic Ideas and Institutional Change in the Twentieth Century (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2002).
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Guy Ben-Porat, “A new middle east? Globalization, peace and the ‘double movement’,” International Relations 19(1), 2005.
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Ian Clark, “Another ‘double movement’: the great transformation after the Cold War?” Review of International Studies 27: 237-255, 2001.
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Campbell Craig, “Review article: American realism versus American imperialism,” World Politics 57: 143-171, 2004.
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Philip S. Golub, “Imperial politics, imperial will and the crisis of US hegemony,” Review of International Economy 11(4): 763-786, 2004.
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Shale Horowitz, “Restarting globalization after World War II: structure, coalitions, and the Cold War,” Comparative Political Studies 37(2): 127-151, 2004.
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G. John Ikenberry, “American power and the empire of capitalist democracy,” Review of International Studies 27, 2001.
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__________, “Liberalism and empire: logics of order in the American unipolar age,” Review of International Studies 30: 609-630, 2004.
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Michael J. Piore and Charles F. Sabel, The second industrial divide: possibilities for prosperity (New York: Basic Books, 1984), esp. Chapter 1 and 7.
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Michael Mann, “The first failed empire of the 21st century,” Review of International Studies 30: 631-653, 2004.
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Jonathan Monten, “The roots of the Bush doctrine: power, nationalism, and democracy promotion in U.S. strategy,” International Security 29(4): 112-156, 2005.
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David P. Rapkin, “Empire and its discontents,” New Political Economy 10(3), 2005.
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Julian Reid, “The biopolitics of the war on terror: a critique of the ‘return of imperialism’ thesis in international relations,” Third World Quarterly 26(2): 237-252, 2005.
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John Ruggie, “International regimes, transactions, and change: embedded liberalism in the postwar economic order,” International Organization 36(2), 1982.
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Richard Saull, “Locating the global South in the theorization of the Cold War: capitalist development, social revolution and geopolitical conflict,” Third World Quarterly 26(2): 253-280, 2005.
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George Steinmetz, “Return to Empire: The New U.S. Imperialism in Comparative Historical Perspective,” Sociological Theory 23(4), 2005.
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Doug Stokes, “The heart of empire? Theorising US empire in an era of transnational capitalism,” Third World Quarterly 26(2): 217-236, 2005.
现代国际体系内的生存与发展
后发展概述 Introduction to Late Development
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夏诚 著,《世界现代化史纲(第一卷):世界体系的形成与第一轮现代化》(南宁:广西人民出版社,1999年)。
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Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson, “Economic Backwardness in Political Perspective,” American Political Science Review 100(1), 2006.
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Ha-Joon Chang, Kicking away the ladder: development strategy in historical perspective (London: Anthem Press, 2002).
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__________, “Policy space in historical perspective – with special reference to trade and industrial policies,” A paper presented at the Queen Elizabeth House 50th Anniversary Conference, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford, July 2005.
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Bradford, Colin, Jr. “Policy interventions and markets: development strategy typologies and policy options”, in Manufacturing miracles: paths of industrialization in Latin America and East Asia edited by Gary Gereffi and Donald L. Wyman (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1990).
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Karl W. Deutsch and Alexander Eckstein, “National industrialization and the declining share of the international economic sector, 1890-1959,” World Politics 13(2): 267-299, 1961.
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Ann Firth, “State form, social order and the social sciences: urban space and politico-economic systems 1760-1850,” Journal of Historical Sociology 16(1), 2003.
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Gary Gereffi, “Paths of industrialization: an overview”, in Manufacturing miracles: paths of industrialization in Latin America and East Asia edited by Gary Gereffi and Donald L. Wyman (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1990), pp.8-23.
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Alexander Gerschenkron, Economic backwardness in historical perspective: a book of essays (Cambridge (Mass.): Harvard University Press, 1962), Chapter 1.
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James R. Kurth, “The political consequences of the product cycle: industrial history and political outcomes,” International Organization 33(1), 1979.
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Thomas Leng, “Commercial Conflict and Regulation in the Discourse of Trade in Seventeenth-Century England,” The Historical Journal 48(4), 2005.
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Patrick K. O’Brien, “Political structures and grand strategies for the growth of the British economy, 1688-1815,” in Nation, state and the economy in history edited by Alice Teichova and Herbert Matis (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003).
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Cheryl Schonhardt-Bailey, “Specific factors, capital markets, portfolio diversification, and free trade: domestic determinants of the repeal of the Corn Laws,” World Politics 43(4): 545-569, 1991.
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Isabel Sanz-Villarroya, “The convergence process of Argentina with Australia and Canada: 1875-2000,” Explorations in Economic History 42: 439-458, 2005.
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Nachoem M. Wijnberg, “The industrial revolution and industrial economics,” Journal of European Economic History 21(1), 1992.
后发展案例 Cases of Late Development
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Robert C. Allen, Farm to factory: a reinterpretation of the Soviet industrial revolution (Princeton and Oxford: Princeton University Press, 2003).
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Jeremy Atack, Fred Bateman and Robert A. Margo, “Capital deepening and the rise of the factory: the American experience during the nineteenth century,” Economic History Review LVIII(3): 586-595, 2005.
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W. G. Beasley, The modern history of Japan (New York and Washington: Frederick A. Praeger, 1966).
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__________, The rise of modern Japan (New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1990).
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Sheri E. Berman, “Modernization in historical perspective: the case of imperial Germany,” World Politics 53: 431-461, 2001.
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Peter Bogason, “Strong or weak state? The case of Danish agricultural export policy, 1849-1906,” Comparative Politics 24(2): 219-227, 1992.
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Peter Duus, The rise of modern Japan (Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company, 1976).
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Alexander Erlich, The Soviet industrialization debate, 1924-1928 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press, 1967).
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Stefano Fenoaltea, “The growth of the Italian economy, 1861-1913: Preliminary second-generation estimates,” European Review of Economic History 9(3), 2005.
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Louis A. Ferleger, “European agricultural development and institutional change: German experiment stations, 1870-1920,” Journal of the Historical Society 5(3), 2005.
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Paul R. Gregory, The Political Economy of Stalinism: Evidence from the Soviet Secret Archives (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004).
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Gerd Hardach, “Nation building in Germany: the economic dimension,” in Nation, state and the economy in history edited by Alice Teichova and Herbert Matis (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003).
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Andrew C. Janos, “The politics of backwardness in continental Europe, 1780-1945,” World Politics 41(3):325-358, 1989.
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Dale W. Jorgenson and Koji Nomura, “The industry origins of Japanese economic growth,” Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 19(4): 457-654, 2005.
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Peter J. Katzenstein, Cultural norms and national security: police and military in postwar Japan (Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press, 1996).
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Tamás Krausz, “‘Stalin’s socialism’—today's debates on socialism: theory, history, politics,” Contemporary Politics 11(4), 2005.
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David A. Lake, “International economic structures and American foreign economic policy,” World Politics 35(4):517-543, 1983.
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__________, “The state and American trade strategy in the pre-hegemonic era,” International Organization 42(1): 33-58, 1988.
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Barrington Moore, Jr., Social origins of dictatorship and democracy: lord and peasant in the making of the modern world (Harmondsworth: Penguin, 1967).
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Barry Naughton, “Implications of the state monopoly over industry and its relaxation,” Modern China 18(1), 1992.
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E. H. Norman, Origins of the modern Japanese state (Selected Writings of E. H. Norman, edited by John W. Dower, including Norman’s classic book Japan’s emergence as a modern state. New York: Pantheon Books, 1975).
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Hiroshi Ohashi, “Learning by doing export subsidies, and industry growth: Japanese steel in the 1950s and 1960s,” Journal of International Economics 66: 297-323, 2005.
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Tetsuji Okazaki, “The role of the merchant coalition in pre-modern Japanese economic development: an historical institutional analysis,” Explorations in Economic History 42: 184-201, 2005.
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Raymond Powell, “Economic growth in the U.S.S.R.,” Scientific American 219(6), 1968.
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Philip G. Roeder, “Modernization and participation in the Leninist development strategy,” American Political Science Review 83(3): 859-884, 1989.
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Richard Sakwa, Soviet politics: an introduction (London and New York: Routledge, 1989).
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Richard J. Samuels, “Rich nation, strong army”: national security and the technological transformation of Japan (Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press, 1994).
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Amanda R. Tillotson, “Open states and open economies: Denmark’s contribution to a statist theory of development,” Comparative Politics 21(3): 339-354, 1989.
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Leon Trotsky, My life: an attempt at an autobiography (Penguin Books, 1971).
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Jeremy J. Whiteman, “Trade and the Regeneration of France, 1789-91: Liberalism, Protectionism and the Commercial Policy of the National Constituent Assembly,” European History Quarterly 31(2): 171-204, 2001.
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Seiichiro Yonekura, The Japan iron and steel industry, 1850-1990: continuity and discontinuity (London: MacMillan Press, 1994).
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Daniel Ziblatt, Structuring the State: The Formation of Italy and Germany and the Puzzle of Federalism (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2006).
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Gregory M. Dempster, “The fiscal background of the Russian revolution,” European Review of Economic History 10 (1), 2006.
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Mark Harrison and Byung-Yeon Kim, “Plans, Prices, and Corruption: The Soviet Firm under Partial Centralization, 1930 to 1990,” Journal of Economic History 66 (1), 2006.
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Kenneth B. Pyle, “Profound Forces in the Making of Modern Japan,” Journal of Japanese Studies 32(2), 2006.
Special issue: “Financial Revolutions and Economic Growth,” edited by Peter L. Rousseau and Richard Sylla, Explorations in Economic History 43(1): 1-178, 2006.
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Peter L. Rousseau and Richard Sylla, “Financial revolutions and economic growth: Introducing this EEH symposium.”
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Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, Frans Buelens and Ludo Cuyvers, “Stock market development and economic growth in Belgium.”
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Carsten Burhop, “Did banks cause the German industrialization?”
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Anders Ogren, “Free or central banking? Liquidity and financial deepening in Sweden, 1834-1913.”
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Yoshiro Miwa and J. Mark Ramseyer, “Japanese industrial finance at the close of the 19th century: Trade creditand financial intermediation.”
Special Issue: “Ruling Passions: Political Economy in Nineteenth-Century America,” edited by Richard R. John, Journal of Policy History 18(1), 2006.
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Richard R. John, “Ruling Passions: Political Economy in Nineteenth-Century America.”
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Robin L. Einhorn, (Robin Leigh), “Institutional Reality in the Age of Slavery: Taxation and Democracy in the States.”
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Mark R. Wilson, “The Politics of Procurement: Military Origins of Bureaucratic Autonomy.”
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Sean P. Adams, “Promotion, Competition, Captivity: The Political Economy of Coal.”
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Steven W. Usselman and Richard R. John, “Patent Politics: Intellectual Property, the Railroad Industry, and the Problem of Monopoly.”
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R. Daniel Wadhwani, “Protecting Small Savers: The Political Economy of Economic Security.”
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Naomi R. Lamoreaux, “Did Insecure Property Rights Slow Economic Development? Some Lessons from Economic History.”
Special Issue: “Transnationalism,” Contemporary European History 14(4), 2005.
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Patricia Clavin, “Defining Transnationalism.”
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Conan Fischer, “Scoundrels without a Fatherland? Heavy Industry and Transnationalism in Post-First World War Germany.”
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Patricia Clavin and Jens-Wilhelm Wessel, “Transnationalism and the League of Nations: Understanding the Work of Its Economic and Financial Organisation.”
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Christopher Kopper, “Continuities and Discontinuities: New Research on the History of German Economic Institutions.”
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