This research paper has been commissioned by the International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament, but reflects the views of the authors and should not be construed as necessarily reflecting the views of the Commission



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Annex C: Multilateral fuel cycle initiatives
Global Nuclear Power Infrastructure – A Russian proposal to develop global infrastructure ensuring access to nuclear energy supplies. The International Uranium Enrichment Centre at Angarsk was established as part of the proposal, and international reprocessing and storage facilities are also envisaged. Fuel supply contracts would be guaranteed by the IAEA, and the stocks of fuel placed under IAEA control.
Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) – A US proposal to develop proliferation-resistant technologies and limit the number of enrichment and reprocessing facilities to those already in existence, in order to facilitate an economically viable and proliferation-safe expansion in nuclear energy. The partnership includes 21 countries and industry, national laboratories, universities and local business in the USA.
Six-Country Proposal – The Multilateral Mechanism for Reliable Access to Nuclear Fuel is a system of enriched uranium supply assurances, proposed by the six countries with commercial enrichment facilities (France, Germany, the Netherlands, Russia, the United Kingdom and United States). Recipients of the assurances would be required to forego enrichment and reprocessing capabilities.
Fuel Suppliers’ Registry – Japan proposed the IAEA Standby Arrangements System for the Assurance of Nuclear Fuel Supply, a registry of uranium and enriched uranium suppliers disseminated by the IAEA to assist in the prevention of fuel supply disruptions. The system would complement the Six-Country Proposal.
US HEU Proposal – The United States offered to set aside excess HEU, which would be downblended and available as a strategic reserve for countries foregoing enrichment and reprocessing.
IAEA Fuel Bank Proposal – The Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) proposed an international fuel reserve, owned and managed by the IAEA, the fuel to be used in the event of a disruption to the international market. The proposal has received financial support from the United States, European Union, United Arab Emirates and Norway, to match that already provided by NTI.
IAEA Multilateral Enrichment Facility – Germany proposed a multilateral enrichment facility administered by the IAEA but operating on a commercial basis and situated in an extraterritorial or neutral location.

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1 Richard T. Cupitt. Survey on U.S. industry compliance and export controls: executive summary. University of Georgia, Center for International Trade & Security 2000: http://www.uga.edu/cits/documents/html/us_industry_compliance.htm.

2 WNA Charter of Ethics, p 9, Annex 1, in World Nuclear Association. Sustaining global best practices in uranium mining and processing: principles for managing radiation, health and safety, waste and the environment. World Nuclear Association 2008: http://www.world-nuclear.org/reference/reports.html.

3 Ibid.

4 Australian Uranium Association. Uranium stewardship principles: http://www.aua.org.au/page.php?pid=393.

5 AREVA, AREVA Business Strategy and Overview. Paris, 2008, p 6.

6 Atomstroyexport hopes to win 20-25% of reactor construction contracts within the next 20 to 30 years: Mukhatzhanova. Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova. Russian nuclear industry reforms: consolidation and expansion. James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies 2007: http://cns.miis.edu/stories/070522.htm.

7 BBC News. Q&A: Uranium enrichment September 1 2006: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5278806.stmBBC.

8 James E. Goodby. Internationalizing the nuclear fuel cycle. Hoover Institution, Stanford University May 2008: http://web.mit.edu/stgs/pdfs/Goodby--Internationalizing%20the%20Nuclear%20Fuel%20Cycle.pdf.

9 Cameco demand and supply stimates: Cameco. Uranium 101: markets. 2008: http://www.cameco.com/uranium_101/markets/.

10 Nuclear Energy Agency, Nuclear energy outlook 2008. Paris, OECD, 2008, p 44.

11 Under construction is defined as ‘first concrete for reactor poured, or major refurbishment under way’: Ibid.

12 World Nuclear Association. The nuclear renaissance. 2007: www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf104.html.

13 Mycle Schneider. 2008 world nuclear industry status report: Western Europe. Bulletin of Atomic Scientists September 19 2008: http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/reports/2008-world-nuclear-industry-status-report/2008-world-nuclear-industry-status-re-1.

14 This plant is the largest nuclear generating station in the world by net electrical power rating. The earthquake forced it to shut down operations for inspection and some repairs. Exhaustive inspections and safety checks, including three separate visits and reports by the IAEA have confirmed the safe performance of the plant during the quake. However the reactor remains closed and it is understood that public concerns are the main reason for this. International Atomic Energy Agency. Follow-up IAEA mission in relation to the findings and lessons learned from the 16 July 2007 earthquake at Kashiwazaki-Kariwa NPP: report to the Government of Japan. IAEA 2008: http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/News/2008/kashiwazaki260208.html; International Atomic Energy Agency. Preliminary findings and lessons learned from the 16 July earthquake at Kashiwazaki-Kariwa NPP: report to the Government of Japan. IAEA 2007: http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/News/2008/kashiwazaki260208.html.

15 Martine Letts. Cross-pollination: Australia's nuclear futures. Lowy Institute for International Policy January 2009: http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2009/01/Cross-pollination-Australia-nuclear-futures.aspx.

16 The ultra-heavy forgings required for large Generation III+ reactors are only being produced by Japan Steel Works (JSW), which is booked out until 2010, though JSW recently announced plans to triple its capacity by 2012. Areva, China and Russia operate forging facilities capable of producing forgings for smaller reactors. .Japan Steel Works to triple capacity. World nuclear news December 3 2008: http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/C-Japan_Steel_Works_to_triple_capacity-0312085.html; Nuclear Energy Agency, Nuclear energy outlook 2008.

17 Keystone Center, Nuclear Power Joint Fact- Finding, 2007, p 35.

18 Mycle Schneider and Antony Froggatt, World nuclear industry status report 2007. Paris, London, Brussels, Greens-EFA Group in the European Parliament, 2008,p 13; Sharon Squassoni, Nuclear renaissance: is it coming? Should it? Policy brief, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2008, pp 2-3; Sharon Squassoni, Charles D. Ferguson and Alan Hanson, Nuclear energy, nonproliferation and arms control in the next administration: is nuclear energy the answer? (Washington, D.C., 29 October 2008); Nuclear Energy Agency, Nuclear energy outlook 2008, pp 322-324.

19 Nuclear Energy Agency, Nuclear energy outlook 2008, p 324.

20 Ibid., p 318.

21 In order to make up Stephen Pacala and Robert Socolow’s nuclear ‘wedge’ as an option to mitigate climate change, 700 1000MWe reactors would have to come online by 2050, in addition to maintaining the present share of nuclear energy in the global mix, requiring two reactors to come online every month for the next 40 years. This is unlikely to be a sustainable growth rate: see Charles D. Ferguson, Nuclear energy: balancing benefits and risks. CSR no 28. New York, Council on Foreign Relations, 2007, p 13.

22 World Nuclear Association. The nuclear renaissance.

23 Nuclear Energy Agency, Nuclear energy outlook 2008, p 60.

24 Down slightly from 57% in 2004: Ibid., p 84.

25 Jay Solomon, U.S. and U.A.E. to sign nuclear-cooperation pact. Wall Street Journal, 15 January 2009.

26 Nina Gerami and Sharon Squassoni, Venezuela: a nuclear profile. Proliferation Analysis. Washington, D.C., Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2008.

27 Nuclear Energy Agency, Nuclear energy outlook 2008, p 75.

28 Andrew Symon, Nuclear power in Southeast Asia: implications for Australia and non-proliferation. Lowy Institute Analysis. Sydney, Lowy Institute for International Policy, 2008.

29 David Albright and Andrea Scheel, Unprecedented projected nuclear growth in the Middle East: now is the time to create effective barriers to proliferation. ISIS Report. Washington, D.C., 2008.

30 Peter Crail and Jessica Lasky-Fink. Middle East states seeking nuclear power. Arms Control Association 2008: http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2008_05/MiddleEastEnergy; Solomon, U.S. and U.A.E. to sign nuclear-cooperation pact .

31 Crail and Lasky-Fink. Middle East states seeking nuclear power.

32 Ibid.; Albright and Scheel, Unprecedented projected nuclear growth in the Middle East: now is the time to create effective barriers to proliferation, , William J. Broad and David E. Sanger, With eye on Iran, rivals also want nuclear power. New York Times, 15 April 2007.; and Sanger, IISS Nuclear energy expansion in the Middle East: reactions to Iran? IISS Strategic Comments. London, Institute for International and Strategic Studies, 2006.

33 Crail and Lasky-Fink. Middle East states seeking nuclear power. For an assessment of the regulatory capacity of Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, see James M. Acton and Wyn Q. Bowen, Atoms for Peace in the Middle East: the technical and regulatory requirements. NPEC Working Paper Series. Washington, D.C., 2008.

34 Symon, Nuclear power in Southeast Asia: implications for Australia and non-proliferation, pp 14-15.

35 Some argue that LWR fuel may still be useful for producing fissile material if the state in control of the reactor is ‘bent on making bombs’: see Victor Gilinksy, A fresh examination of the proliferation dangers of light water reactors, in Taming the next set of strategic weapons threats. Ed. Henry Sokolski. Carlisle, PA, Army War College Strategic Studies Institute, 2006.

36 The US has expressed interest through its GNEP proposal, but has yet to make a firm decision on the matter.

37 See Edwin Lyman and Frank von Hippel. Reprocessing revisited: the international dimensions of the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership. Arms Control Association 2008: http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2008_04/LymanVonHippel. The authors also express concern about the wisdom of such R&D cooperation given South Korea’s suspicion and envy of the Japanese reprocessing capability.

38 Conversation between Letts and John Ritch on 23 December 2008.

39 International Security Advisory Board. Report on proliferation implications of the global expansion of civilian nuclear power. United States Department of State 7 April 2008: http://2001-2009.state.gov/documents/organization/105587.pdf.

40 Alan Hanson in Squassoni, Ferguson and Hanson, Nuclear energy, nonproliferation and arms control in the next administration: is nuclear energy the answer?

41 Squassoni, Nuclear renaissance: is it coming? Should it?, p 6.

42 Companies involved in the nuclear black market run by A.Q. Khan during the 1990s were an exception to general industry compliance.

43 An example of industry-wide efforts to improve nuclear safety is the World Association of Nuclear Operators established in the wake of the Chernobyl accident in 1986, which conducts peer reviews of reactor safety and shares best practices. The recently-established World Institute of Nuclear Security will operate along similar lines, but to share best practices in nuclear security.

44 This ‘ripple effect’ was a driver of self-regulation in other industries, but did not eventuate from sales to the A.Q. Khan network.

45 Personal communication from the Australian Safeguards and Nonproliferation Office, 4 December 2008; Personal communication from the Australian Uranium Association.

46 See Alan Hanson of AREVA’s comments in Squassoni, Ferguson and Hanson, Nuclear energy, nonproliferation and arms control in the next administration: is nuclear energy the answer?; Gretchen Hund and Amy Seward, Broadening industry governance to include nonproliferation. Pacific Northwest Center for Global Security Publication. Richland, Washington, 2008, pp 19-20.

47 Gretchen Hund. Nonproliferation promoted by industry self-regulation. Pacific Northwest Center for Global Security 2006: http://pnwcgs.pnl.gov/pdfs/INMM-Hund6-14-06REV.pdf.

48 See Gretchen Hund, Carol Kessler, Heidi Mahy, Fred McGoldrick and Amy Seward, Cradle-to-grave nuclear fuel supply workshop: industry's potential role. Richland, Washington, Pacific Northwest Center for Global Security, 2007; Hund and Seward, Broadening industry governance to include nonproliferation,

49 See Elizabeth Turpen’s comments in Hund and Seward, Broadening industry governance to include nonproliferation, pp 19-20.

50 Ibid., p 14.

51 Atomic Energy of Canada Limited’s CANDU reactors may face this problem in the future.

52 The divergence of commercial and national interests is already a source of tension between companies and governments in the global nuclear market: see Michelle M. Smith and Charles D. Ferguson, France's nuclear diplomacy.
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