There seem to be at least three schools of thought on what "renewable" energy is



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DEMAND FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY WILL RISE AS IT BECOMES MORE ECONOMICAL
Bill Schroer, The Denver Post, February 10, 1997; Pg. C-02, TITLE: Renewable energy matures Colorado's high plains well-suited for solar, wind and biomass power // VT98-acs

Solar panels now in service in eastern Colorado will contribute to lower prices in the future. Renewable energy has held strong appeal for more than 20 years due to its environmental benefits and the fact that it's a safe, flexible domestic resource, but significantly lower prices for traditional energy have inhibited demand for renewable power. However, as the price for renewable energy approaches existing utility rates, demand is expected to rise.


BY 2020 FOSSIL FUEL USE WILL DROP DRASTICALLY
YOSHIO SHIOTANI Senior staff writer, The Nikkei Weekly, December 23, 1996; Pg. 23, TITLE: Scientists see a world on cusp of new knowledge // VT98-acs

Japan's National Institute of Science and Technology Policy, linked to the Science and Technology Agency, and Germany's System Technology Innovation Research Institute, associated with the Fraun Hofer Association, conducted a joint survey of scientists in their respective nations last year. The institutes asked scientists to set time frames for the development of various technologies.

During the half decade from 2016 to 2020, a succession of fundamental, enabling technologies is expected to debut in the fields of energy, environment and brain function.

The energy-conversion efficiency of solar cells will reach a high level of 30% and bring solar power into widespread use. At the same time, energy-storage systems based on superconducting materials should reach the practical stage. Taken together, these developments will help lead in 2021 to a major shift away from fossil fuels to types of renewable energy resources, and a resulting large decrease in carbon-dioxide emissions.


THE SWITCH TO RENEWABLE ENERGY IS INEVITABLE
JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 314

Why is the switch to renewable energy inevitable? The answer is not merely because the aggregate environmental impacts of a world fossil filer economy on air, fresh water, and oceans will become progressively more insufferable as world population expands and as world economic activity continues to increase. The shift is also inevitable because renewable energy is abundant, domestically available, generally fuel-free, very low to nonpolluting, climate-safe, and sustainable. In short, it is superior. Compare renewables with fossil fuels.


FOSSIL FUEL USE WILL PEAK BY 2030, SECONDARY SOURCE TO RENEWABLE ENERGY BY 2050
JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. XV

The next shift is from fossil and nuclear energy to solar-based renewables. Fossil fuel use may peak by the year 2030. By 2050, or even earlier if we wish, a very substantial portion of the world's energy will be solar derived -- beyond the already significant contributions of biomass and hydropower.


BY 2011 THERE WILL BE A CLOSED-CIRCLE RECYCLING ECONOMY
YOSHIO SHIOTANI Senior staff writer, The Nikkei Weekly, December 23, 1996; Pg. 23, TITLE: Scientists see a world on cusp of new knowledge // VT98-acs

Japan's National Institute of Science and Technology Policy, linked to the Science and Technology Agency, and Germany's System Technology Innovation Research Institute, associated with the Fraun Hofer Association, conducted a joint survey of scientists in their respective nations last year. The institutes asked scientists to set time frames for the development of various technologies. By 2011, nearly all materials will be recycled and a closed-circle economy will be operating.

JNHERENCY

THE BEST OPTION IS TO WAIT UNTIL THE TIME IS RIGHT TO SWITCH TO RENEWABLE ENERGY, NOT TO ACT NOW


WAIT UNTIL 2006, WHEN SOLAR PANEL BREAKTHROUGH WILL COME
YOSHIO SHIOTANI Senior staff writer, The Nikkei Weekly, December 23, 1996; Pg. 23, TITLE: Scientists see a world on cusp of new knowledge // VT98-acs

Japan's National Institute of Science and Technology Policy, linked to the Science and Technology Agency, and Germany's System Technology Innovation Research Institute, associated with the Fraun Hofer Association, conducted a joint survey of scientists in their respective nations last year. The institutes asked scientists to set time frames for the development of various technologies.

From 2006 to 2010, solar cells will achieve a light-to-electricity conversion of efficiency of 20%, bringing the practical use of large-area solar panels.
BEST CHANCE TO REDUCE AIR POLLUTION IS TO WAIT FOR TECHNICAL DEVELOPMENTS
David Lore, science reporter, The Columbus Dispatch, September 22, 1996, Pg. 7C., TITLE: WAITING TO PAY FOR CHEAPER TECHNOLOGIES IS FOLLY // VT98-acs

At the Riffe Center last week, for example, participants in a global warming conference agreed it would be unwise to spend a lot of money right now on reducing air pollution since there's a chance scientists and engineers might develop cheaper, cleaner energy systems - i.e., silver bullets - if we just wait a few decades.


BEST TO WAIT UNTIL 21sCENTURY TO FIGHT GLOBAL WARMING, IT WILL BE SAFE AND WE WILL SAVE $2.5 TRILLION
David Lore, science reporter, The Columbus Dispatch, September 22, 1996, Pg. 7C., TITLE: WAITING TO PAY FOR CHEAPER TECHNOLOGIES IS FOLLY // VT98-acs

The Clinton administration, which wants to build a bridge to the future, is accepting arguments that the toll booth for global warming can be at the far end of the span.

It doesn't matter when we pay the toll as long as we do it sometime during the 21st century, said Washington energy consultant W. David Montgomery. And if we wait a few decades, he said, the final fare just might be $ 2.5 trillion less.
RENEWABLE ENERGY WILL DOMINATE ENERGY AFFAIRS WITHIN 50 YEARS
JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. 3

As noted, within about 50 years -- and possibly sooner, if we choose -- the world will greatly reduce its massive reliance on fossil fuel and nuclear energy by shifting to clean and sustainable renewable energy sources.


BY 2050 RENEWABLE ENERGY WILL DOMINATE ENERGY MARKET, BY 2100 WE WILL BE IN A POLLUTION FREE RENEWABLE ENERGY ECONOMY
JOHN BERGER, National Research Council, 1997; CHARGING AHEAD: THE BUSINESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMERICA // VT98-acs p. XV

According to a recent study Shell International Petroleum Corporation, renewables by 2050 may be providing almost as much energy as all fossil and nuclear energy combined. Not long thereafter in historical terms -- certainly by A.D. 2100, and probably far sooner -- the transition to a pollution free renewable energy economy will be complete. By then, today's fossil fuel and nuclear energy technologies will be museum pieces.


INHERENCY

THE FREE MARKET WILL FULLY DEVELOP ANY RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCE WHICH IS COST COMPETITIVE


WHEN EVENTS REQUIRE RENEWABLE ENERGY AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY, THE PRIVATE SECTOR WILL DEVELOP THEM MOST EFFECTIVELY
Fred L. Smith, Jr. President The Competitive Enterprise Institute, Federal Document Clearing House Congressional Testimony, April 9, 1997, TITLE: Testimony House Science Energy And Environment Subcommittee // VT98-acs

Consider, for example, the energy efficiency and alternative energy research programs of the Department of Energy. DOE funds such research in the belief that markets do not do enough to increase energy efficiency or to find other sources of energy. This is a strange notion. If events were ever to require fossil fuel substitutes or greater energy efficiency, then as Simon Rottenberg has stated: "Producers have the incentive to find inexpensive, attractive, and efficient substitutes for fossil fuels; their earnings will rise if they do. Consumers have an incentive to substitute other fuels; they will reduce their costs if they do."


IF THE R&D IS REALLY A GOOD IDEA, PRIVATE FIRMS WILL DO IT; IF IT IS A BAD IDEA, GOVERNMENT WILL DO IT
Jerry Taylor Director, Natural Resource Studies Cato Institute, Federal News Service, APRIL 9, 1997, TITLE: Prepared Testimony Before The House Committee On Science Subcommittee On Energy And Environment // VT98-acs

Whether or not a particular R&D program is aimed at achieving some "worthy cause" is irrelevant. The worthier the cause, the more likely it is that private money would be available if the worthy cause were indeed viable. More often than not, however, such expenditures are merely the high-minded justifications proffered to mask what is in reality corporate welfare.


MARKETS ARE DOING THE RIGHT THING WHEN THEY FAIL TO INVEST IN UNECONOMICAL RENEWABLE ENERGY
Jerry Taylor Director, Natural Resource Studies Cato Institute, Federal News Service, APRIL 9, 1997, TITLE: Prepared Testimony Before The House Committee On Science Subcommittee On Energy And Environment // VT98-acs

Nonetheless, when markets find that a particular research activity involves high risk and minimal return due to low energy prices, the market does not "fail" by not investing in the project; it operates rationally.


GOVERNMENT FOCUSES ON HIGH RISK PRE-COMPETITIVE RESEARCH -- SO NO WONDER IT FAILS
Jerry Taylor Director, Natural Resource Studies Cato Institute, Federal News Service, APRIL 9, 1997, TITLE: Prepared Testimony Before The House Committee On Science Subcommittee On Energy And Environment // VT98-acs

Since the portfolio of federal energy R&D investments is directed, according to the DOE, at supporting "high-risk, precompetitive research," which results in a "high-risk portfolio of capital investments in the Nation's future," it should not surprise us when government's "high-risk capital investments" don't pan out -- they are, after all, risky by definition.


IF AND WHEN FOSSIL FUELS RUN SHORT, THEN THE MARKET WILL GO TO RENEWABLE ENERGY
International Solar Energy Intelligence Report, November 1, 1996, TITLE: SLANTS & TRENDS--LAISSEZ-FAIRE RENEWABLES // VT98-acs

Jerry Taylor, Cato's director of natural resource studies:

The United States has a traditional glut of fossil fuels, Taylor wrote in a recent Cato publication. If and when these fossil fuels run out, the free market will turn to renewable energy sources of its own will.
ATTEMPTS TO MAKE CONSUMERS DEMAND RENEWABLE ENERGY HAVE FAILED
International Solar Energy Intelligence Report, November 1, 1996, TITLE: Business & Technology--Green Pricing Programs: Poor Utility Outreach May Explain Gap Between Polls and Willingness to Pay // VT98-acs

Government and environmental advocates have admonished the public to change lifestyles and embrace renewable energy since the oil crisis of the 1970s, said the report, Energy and the Environment: The Public View. Barbara Farhar, a senior scientist at the National renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colo., wrote the report.


INHERENCY

THE VARIOUS TYPES OF RENEWABLE ENERGY WILL ARISE ON THEIR OWN AS THEY ARE ECONOMICAL


WIND POWER WILL GROW RAPIDLY IN THE NEXT DECADE -- MUCH LIKE THE COMPUTER INDUSTRY DID
DENNIS WAMSTED, New Technology Week, September 3, 1996, TITLE: PC-Like Growth Spurt Ahead For Windpower? // VT98-acs

" The rapid growth and steady technological advance of windpower suggest that it could become an important energy source for many nations within the next decade," Flavin writes in "Windpower: Small, But Growing Fast," an article in the September/October 1996 issue of the institute's magazine, WorldWatch.

"The computer industry has demonstrated the potentially powerful impact of double-digit growth rates. The fact that personal computers provided less than I percent of world computing power in 1980 did not prevent them--a decade later--from dominating the industry, and changing the very nature of work," he writes. There is no doubt that rapid growth also is possible in the wind industry, he said. In particular, he pointed out that windpower, which essentially generated no electricity in the north Germ;m state of Schleswig-Holstein in 1990, now accounts for 8 percent of the state's electric generation capacity, and that figure is growing.
WIND POWER IS INCREASING BY OVER 20% A YEAR
THE ELECTRICITY DAILY, February 3, 1997, TITLE: Wind Blows Strongly Worldwide // VT98-acs

New wind generating capacity worldwide topped 1,200 MW in 1996, for the second year in a row, reports the American Wind Energy Association. Worldwide installed wind capacity now stands at 6,190 MW, up 24 percent from 1995. AWEA says it expects 1997 additions to total at least 1,300 MW.


WIND POWER IS SPREADING, NOT BEING ABANDONED
Jonathon Porritt, The Guardian, February 1, 1997; Pg. 4, TITLE: HEAD TO HEAD: THE ANSWER IS BLOWING IN THE WIND // VT98-ACS

WIND power is not being "ditched as useless across the world". There are 17,000 turbines operating in the State of California alone. One thousand new turbines were erected in Germany last year. Denmark generates nearly 4 per cent of its electricity consumption from wind. Four million people in Europe now get their electricity from wind power.


IMMEDIATE FUTURE SEES DOUBLE DIGIT ANNUAL PERCENTAGE GROWTH IN SOLAR ENERGY
Oliver Morgan, MAIL ON SUNDAY, February 09, 1997: Pg. 8, TITLE: New dawn beckons if the world turns to the sun // VT98-acs

But according to California based environmental researchers Strategies Unlimited, the market is set for massive growth. Strategies Unlimited Vice President Bob Johnson says by 2000 a doubling of annual production to 150 to 200 megawatts would be 'conservative'. He says: 'By 2010, the figure could have increased by ten to twenty times, to 800 or 1600 megawatts annually. That is impressive double digit growth by anyone's standards.'


ENERGY EFFICIENCY IS ON THE RISE AND WILL REDUCE THE PROBLEMS OF FOSSIL FUELS
Leyla Boulton, Financial Times, November 11, 1996, Pg. 06, TITLE: A business praying for 'cultural revolution' // VT98-acs

Having been weakened by falling oil and gas prices, the business of energy efficiency looks set to receive a new lease of life as concerns about the environment grow.

Chief of these worries is global warming, whose best-known man-made cause is the burning of fossil fuels by industry and the general public. Other concerns include "acid rain" from power plants, which devastates forests and lakes, and air pollution from road transport.
THERE ARE NO SUBSTANTIAL OBSTACLES TO IMPROVED ENERGY EFFICIENCY
Leyla Boulton, Financial Times, October 23, 1996, Pg. 11, TITLE: Energy answers blowing in the wind: Falling oil and gas prices may undermine rationale for renewable sources // VT98-acs

Mr Michael Jefferson, deputy secretary-general of the World Energy Council, which consists of the world's energy producers, says that"it is not clear, apart from inertia, ignorance, and institutional complacency, what the obstacles are to energy efficiency".

INHERENCY

COMING UTILITY DEREGULATION WILL GIVE US ALL THE RENEWABLE ENERGY WE WILL NEED


UTILITY DEREGULATION MIGHT CREATE COMPETITION BASED ON PROMOTING RENEWABLE ENERGY THE LIKES OF WHICH WE HAVE NEVER SEEN BEFORE
ALAN MILLER and ADAM SERCHUK Renewable Energy Policy Project, JUNE 1996, TITLE: Renewable Energy In Competitive Electricity Markets, http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs

Many consumers feel an intuitive appreciation for the concept of environmental soundness, and they demonstrate an increasing willingness to pay for it. The advantage of a popular environmental brand to which customers felt a moral attachment might engender a corporate commitment to renewable energy unknown in the conventional regulatory milieu.


BECAUSE OF LACK OF BRAND DIFFERENTIATION, UTILITIES WILL MOVE TO RENEWABLE ENERGY AS A WAY TO ATTRACT CUSTOMERS
ALAN MILLER and ADAM SERCHUK Renewable Energy Policy Project, JUNE 1996, TITLE: Renewable Energy In Competitive Electricity Markets, http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs

Second, some advocates, again citing surveys, suggest that renewable energy might burgeon if deregulation raises consumers' awareness about the source of their electricity. They reason that electricity retailers in a restructured market would find themselves trying to sell a product with few attributes capable of differentiation. The telecommunication industry provides a useful comparison here. In the case of both power and telephone service, American consumers expect practically complete reliability, eliminating one avenue of possible brand differentiation. Electric suppliers might tout voltage stability, especially to industrial users, just as some telephone providers market the high quality of their sound. But here again, Americans might exhibit little tolerance for performance considered substandard. Most differentiation of telecommunication brands exists in the customer interface -- billing format, discounts, etc. But electricity distribution utilities probably will remain monopoly franchises, perhaps eliminating this avenue of brand differentiation as well. However, electric power offers an ideal opportunity for distinguishing consumer options: the direct environmental effect of product consumption.


GOOD REASONS EXIST FOR SUPPORTERS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY TO APPROVE OF UTILITY DEREGULATION
ALAN MILLER and ADAM SERCHUK Renewable Energy Policy Project, JUNE 1996, TITLE: Renewable Energy In Competitive Electricity Markets, http://solstice.crest.org/renewables/repp/ //VT98-acs

First, we doubt whether the conventional regulatory framework has aided the renewable energy community so much that we should defend it unthinkingly. Today, renewable resources other than hydropower supply a scant 0.3% of utility electricity. Given polls indicating strong consumer support for renewable energy, the niche market available in even the crudest customer choice scenario might be much larger.


DEREGULATION WON'T HURT RENEWABLE ENERGY BECAUSE IT WILL CAUSE CONSUMER PREFERENCES FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY TO BE CONSIDERED SERIOUSLY
Reuters Financial Service, April 22, 1997, TITLE: US REPUBLICAN RELEASES SURVEY BACKING CLEAN POWER // VT98-acs

Environmentalists have raised concern that in an open market, buyers would opt for the cheapest power, which would likely come from coal-fired power plants.

"We think higher of the American consumer than that," Commerce Committee spokesman Michael Collins. "We think the American consumer will try to choose electric power that is clean and safe."
UTILITY DEGREGULATION WILL HELP RENEWABLE ENERGY BECAUSE CUSTOMERS WILL REQUEST IT
Susan Klann, contributing editor of Oil and Gas Investor, The Denver Post, October 21, 1996; Pg. E-02, TITLE: Photovoltaic remains costly energy game // VT98-acs

Restructuring won't speed up renewable development except in one aspect: As utilities face more competition, they will have to listen more and more closely to what customers want. And many customers want renewable energy choices.


ELECTRICITY DEREGULATION WILL DECREASE INCENTIVES FOR ENERGY EFFICIENCY
Leyla Boulton, Financial Times, October 23, 1996, Pg. 11, TITLE: Energy answers blowing in the wind: Falling oil and gas prices may undermine rationale for renewable sources // VT98-acs

He estimates that the UK could easily cut its energy consumption by as much as 30 per cent, averting the need for more costly ways of cutting greenhouse gas emissions associated with global warming. However, he shares widespread fears that government plans to liberalise electricity markets after 1998 will undermine further the rationale for developing renewables by driving prices down further.

INHERENCY

RENEWABLE ENERGY PROGRAMS WILL BE ADEQUATELY FUNDED


STRONG BI-PARTISAN SUPPORT FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY FUNDING
Lira Behrens, Inside Energy/with Federal Lands, December 16, 1996; Pg. 6, TITLE: SURVEY SHOWS DEMOCRATIC, GOP VOTERS CONTINUE TO BACK EFFICIENCY R&D // VT98-acs

A coalition of consumer and environmental groups last week released the results of a survey of registered voters that for the third straight year shows strong bipartisan support for DOE's renewable energy and energy efficiency r&d programs.

The poll, which was conducted Nov. 9-14 by Research/Strategy/Management Inc., for the Sustainable Energy Budget Coalition, surveyed 1,200 registered voters. It has a margin of error of +/- 2.9%.
ENERGY FUNDING IS DOWN BUT RENEWABLE ENERGY FUNDING IS UP
Greenwire, February 7, 1997, TITLE: BUDGET: MEDIA COVERAGE OUTLINES ENVIRO HITS AND GAINS // VT98-acs

Meanwhile, the Energy Dept. would have "nearly 8% less" to spend in FY '98, although energy efficiency and renewable energy would be among the programs getting funding boosts (Martha Hamilton, WASH. POST).


FEDERAL GOVERNMENT WILL INCREASE RENEWABLE ENERGY FUNDING IN FISCAL 98
21ST CENTURY FUELS, March, 1997, TITLE: DOE REQUESTS $1 BILLION FOR EFFICIENCY/RENEWABLE IN 1998 // VT98-acs

"Feeling bullish and optimistic" for what she called "a successful budget year," Christine Ervin, assistant secretary of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, announced a request for $1.05 billion, $213 million more than Congress authorized for fiscal year 1997. The Office of Transportation Technologies (OTT), which includes alternative fuel and vehicle programs, requested $243.3 million, almost $40 million more than last year's proposal.


NEW CONGRESS WILL SUPPORT INCREASED RENEWABLE ENERGY PROGRAMS
International Solar Energy Intelligence Report, November 15, 1996, TITLE: General Election: Renewable Advocates Expect Shift As Moderates Gain Power in House // VT98-acs

Renewable energy advocates can expect increased influence in Congress by moderate Republicans in the wake of the Nov. 5 general elections,say solar energy advocates.

The elections warrant cautious optimism for future federal funding of renewable energy programs and electricity restructuring legislation, said the liberal Sustainable Energy Coalition (SEC), based in the Washington suburb of Takoma Park, Md.
REPUBLICAN CONTROL OF HOUSE HELPS RENEWABLE ENERGY FUNDING
International Solar Energy Intelligence Report, November 15, 1996, TITLE: General Election: Renewable Advocates Expect Shift As Moderates Gain Power in House // VT98-acs

Continued Republican control of the house may work in favor of renewable, SEC said. A Republican-controlled House will pass electric utility restructuring legislation through faster than a Democratic-controlled chamber would, the environmental group speculated.


GINGRICH SUPPORTS RENEWABLE ENERGY
CongressDaily/P.M., September 23, 1996, TITLE: Despite Hostility, Renewable Energy Boosters Win A Few // VT98-acs

Speaker Gingrich especially has expressed a strong interest in renewable technology, [Rep.] Schaefer added.


GREEN PRICING PLAN FOR UTILITIES IS GROWING RAPIDLY
DENNIS WAMSTED, The Energy Daily, February 11, 1997, TITLE: The Color Of Choice For Utilities Is Green // VT98-acs

Cooperative Power supplies wholesale electric power to Dakota Electric and 16 other electric distribution cooperatives in west central and southern Minnesota. And Will Kaul, director of transmission and environmental services for CP, said the program could grow to include some or all of the 15 other distribution cooperatives it serves.

"I am confident that this program will grow rapidly," he said. "Other cooperatives in the state have already expressed an interest in offering renewable energy to their customers."

NEGATIVE HARMS-OIL DEPENDENCY

OIL SUPPLIES ARE NOW SECURE AND DEPENDABLE
ENERGY SUPPLIES HAVE NEVER BEEN AS SECURE AS THEY ARE NOW
Financial Times, February 1, 1997; Pg. 03, TITLE: Supplies of energy safe for 50 years // VT98-ACS

Mr Baker, speaking at a seminar sponsored by Price Waterhouse, said concerns about the security of energy supplies, which had been common in the 1970s and 1980s, were a thing of the past.

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