Specializing in Farm Sector Financial Analysis, Macroeconomic Linkages to Agriculture, Commodity Economics, and Farm Policy Analysis



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Farm Sector Economics, Inc.

Specializing in Farm Sector Financial Analysis,

Macroeconomic Linkages to Agriculture,

Commodity Economics, and Farm Policy Analysis



Colorado Springs, Colorado



Farm Sector Economics:  Consulting
Farm Sector Economics (FSE) is a consulting firm specializing in farm sector financial analysis, macroeconomic linkages to agriculture, commodity economics and farm policy analysis. The firm's founder and president, Dr. Paul T. Prentice, is a recognized leader in the field. FSE brings a unique sector wide perspective to agricultural economics and financial analysis.
By using an aggregate top down approach, FSE interprets the broader general economic environment, complete with international linkages, that is missing from other traditional commodity analysis. These larger macroeconomic forces and policies    inflation, interest rates, economic growth, foreign exchange rates, etc.    are reshaping agriculture's future in fundamental ways.
Farm Sector Economics provides forecasts of macroeconomic variables, analyzes monetary/fiscal policies, and links these to sector wide agricultural and financial indicators. We also generate alternative planning scenarios for agribusiness and financial institutions. Our expertise covers the entire spectrum of macroeconomic analysis, agricultural finance, and commodity economics and farm policy.
In addition to sector-wide financial and economic analysis, we also conduct firm-level analysis. We provide the analytical framework necessary for profitable decision making as agriculture's future unfolds.
Projects: (1) “A Financial Analysis of John Hancock's Agricultural Investment Portfolio”, for the John Hancock Mutual Life Insurance Company. (2) “The Future of the Farm Machinery and Equipment Industry: An Analysis of Major Factors Affecting Demand and the Outlook for Sales”, a multi-client project for The Cummins Engine Company, JETRO, Inc., DMI, Inc., and the Prairie Implement Manufacturers Association. (3) “The Biodiesel Industry: Current Trends and Future Prospects”, Blue Sun Biodiesel, Inc. A listing of projects and clients is on pp. 15-17.
Expert Witness: (1) “Archer Daniels Midland and the High Fructose Corn Syrup Industry”, expert witness report to Larkin, Hoffman, Daly and Lindgren, Ltd. (2) “Economists' Report on the Ford/Fiat UNCITRAL Arbitration”, expert witness report to Simpson, Thacher and Bartlett. A listing of expert witness projects is on p. 6.
Publications: (1) Prentice, et. al., "Forecasting Livestock Prices: Fixed and Stochastic Coefficients Estimation Comparisons", Agribusiness, Vol. 6, No. 1, Spring 1990. (2) “Global Indicators”, articles published in Global Agribusiness, December 1998, March 1999, and June 1999. A listing of publications and citations is on pp. 9-10.
Invited speeches: (1) “The Outlook for the U.S. Economy, With Linkages to Agriculture”, Industry Outlook Conference, Denver, CO, April 2004. (2) “Globalization and Competition: Implications for Farm Machinery”, North American Agricultural Equipment Conference, Atlanta GA, November 1996. A listing of invited speeches is on pp. 10-14.
Media recognition:(1)Top Producer (Mar. 2007), (2)Wall Street Journal (9/25/98). See pp. 9-10.

Farm Financial Conditions Review

Farm Sector Economics publishes Farm Financial Conditions Review (FFCR), a monthly report focusing on financial and economic conditions in agriculture. The report is 16-20 pages long and comes with an additional four page Executive Summary. It brings together in one publication analysis of various agricultural finance data and research generated by the U.S. Department of Agricul­­ture, Farm Credit Administration, American Bankers Association, Federal Reserve System, Land Grant Universities, and other sources.

The first half of our FFCR publication is devoted to agricul­tural finance issues and analysis. The second half focuses on the general economy and its impact on agriculture. Key economic indicators are analyzed, forecast, and linked to the farm sector. Forecasts and analyses of international economic conditions are included. A special analysis is provided every month discussing a timely economic issue and how it relates to the agricultural sector. The special analysis includes such topics as the linkage between the Federal budget deficit and the foreign trade deficit, or an analysis of the impact of interest rates on farm commodity prices and farm income.


FFCR provides its own analysis of current commodity conditions and outlook, farm policy proposals, and agricu­ltural finance issues such as proposed farm credit legislation. Leading professionals periodically write a special analysis of key issues such as new tax legislation, agency status of the Farm Credit System, or farm commodity prospects.
Farm Financial Conditions Review is available monthly for an annual fee of $595.

Ag Link Weekly Update

You need strategic information on agriculture -- economic trends, farm policy, world trade. Our weekly Ag Link report is fast and accurate, helping you make the right decisions in today's uncertain environment. This is the finest weekly economic service designed for agribusiness. Not only do you get the latest in farm commodity and policy developments, but you are able to track the broader U.S. general economy -- interest rates, economic growth, inflation -- as well as the international economy.


Every Monday morning this four-to-five page update, delivered by email, keeps you abreast of major economic and policy developments as they happen. Ag Link is available to our valued clients for an annual fee of $995.00. You will receive a comprehensive look at the farm sector for less than $20 a week for this timely service. Ag Link is also available as an upgrade to your FFCR service for a total fee of $1,500.00.

Ag Link: PC-Based Agricultural Linkage Model


For Long-Run Analysis and Strategic Planning

at the National and Regional Level
Farm Sector Economics has developed an econometric model service, Ag Link, for forecasting and analysis of the U.S. farm sector at the national and regional level. Ag Link is an econometric model of the aggregate U.S. farm sector including regional submodels for the farm economies of the original 12 Farm Credit System districts. It is an annual model with a 10-year forecasting and scenario development horizon. The model generates a full set of income and balance sheet variables for the U.S. as well as for each region. It is designed for determining economic and financial conditions in the farm sector over the long-run. Regions are built-up from the state level, and are customized for the client.
Our Ag Link Model Service can help you determine the future economic and financial environment for agriculture. It is used by agribusiness, lending institutions, government agencies and farm organizations to answer the following questions:


  1. What are the future prospects for livestock demand? Oilseed demand?




  1. What are the future prospects for the farm lending industry? Where will the farm lending market expand? By how much?




  1. What are the future prospects for farmland values? What does this imply for the farm machinery industry? For other sectors of agribusiness?




  1. In which regions will farmland values rise or fall? Where have they over-adjusted? Where will they boom?




  1. Will farm incomes be more volatile, or less, for the rest of the decade? What are the prospects for farm income in the 21st century? How will this vary by region?




  1. How will farm incomes perform in different regions of the country? How will this affect the demand for credit? Machinery? Fertilizer? Chemicals?




  1. How risky will it be to finance the purchase of farm machinery and equipment? Fertilizer? Chemicals?




  1. How will failure to reduce the Federal budget deficit affect agriculture and agribusiness in each region? What if the budget is brought closer to balance? What is the impact of monetary policy on farm sector financial conditions?




  1. How sensitive is agriculture nationally and in each region to changes in economic growth, inflation, and interest rates?

Annual retainers for our Ag Link Model Service, with customized linkages to your industry and regions, range from $17,500 to $25,000, depending on the level of service required.



Farm Sector Economics: Public Speaking

Paul T. Prentice, Ph.D.

President, Farm Sector Economics and

Macroeconomics Editor, Farm Financial Conditions Review

Dr. Prentice is a featured speaker at numerous conferences, has published several academic research articles, and is quoted frequently in the business and farm press, from the Wall Street Journal to the Farm Journal. Dr. Prentice is co-author of Anatomy of an American Agricultural Credit Crisis, published by the Farm Credit System Assistance Board.

Dr. Prentice has over 25 years of experience in macroeconomic forecasting, policy analysis, and linkages to agriculture. Paul holds a B.A. in Mathematics and a Ph.D. in Agricultural Economics from the University of Connecticut.


From 1978-1985, Dr. Prentice was Chief Macroeconomist for USDA's Economic Research Service. In that capacity, he briefed the Secretary of Agriculture on general economic conditions, and prepared numerous congressional testimonies on the implications for agriculture of those conditions. In 1985, he left USDA to establish Farm Sector Economics, a consulting and publishing firm specializing in farm sector financial analysis, farm policy, and macroeconomic linkages to agriculture. Paul is President of the firm and is Macroeconomics Editor for their monthly economic report, Farm Financial Conditions Review.
Speakers fee: $2,500 plus travel expenses
Example speeches include:
“External Financial Conditions: Implications for Agribusiness Managers”, STRATUM Strategic Planning Conference, Center for Agribusiness Policy Studies, Arizona State University, Mesa AZ, February 1999
“Globalization and Competition: Implications for Farm Machinery”, Farm Equipment Manufacturers Association, Annual Meeting, Albuquerque NM, April 1996
"Who is Financing Livestock Production?", USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum, Washington, DC, February 1995
"Prospects for the General Economy and the U.S. Farm Sector", Arkansas Farm Bureau, Annual Meeting, Fayetteville, AR, July 1994
For a complete listing of invited speeches, see pp. 11-14

Farm Sector Economics: Expert Witness Service

Farm Sector Economics has developed a forensic economics service, our Expert Witness Service. Our president, Dr. Paul T. Prentice, is a respected, experienced agricultural economist. Dr. Prentice is available for expert testimony at court hearings or legislative sessions.


Expert Witness Fees: $250/hr for research and preparation; $350/hr for court preparation and testimony.
Example Testimony:
“Archer Daniels Midland and the High Fructose Corn Syrup Industry”, expert witness report to Larkin, Hoffman, Daly and Lindgren, Ltd.
“Economists' Report on the Ford/Fiat UNCITRAL Arbitration”, expert witness report to Simpson Thacher and Bartlett
“A Secondary Market for Farm Mortgage Loans”, for the American Council of Life Insurance. Results presented to the joint staff of the U.S. House and Senate Agricultural Committees.
“A Reorganization Plan”, for a 25,000 acre cotton farm facing bankruptcy. Testified to the economic and financial outlook for cotton producers in the U.S; and developed alternative farm plans for the operation under reorganization.
“Guaranteed Lending Manual”, for the American Bankers Association. Results presented to the joint staff of the U.S. House and Senate Agricultural Committees.

FSE: Its Founder
Paul T. Prentice, Ph.D.

President
Dr. Prentice has over twenty-five years of experience in macroeconomic forecasting, policy analysis, and linkages to agriculture. He is considered a leading expert on general economic conditions and their impact on agriculture.
Paul successfully guided USDA’s Economic Research Service through cycles of recession-recovery and inflation-deflation. He provided expert advice to commodity specialists in interpreting the macroeconomic environment as it affects agricultural supply, demand, and prices. Dr. Prentice was instrumental in integrating international economic developments, the domestic economy, and farm financial conditions into a coherent overview. While at USDA, he provided briefings to the Office of the Secretary, and produced congressional testimonies.
Dr. Prentice has obtained national recognition for the importance of macroeconomic developments and policies to the entire agricultural sector. His work has resulted in numerous publications on macroeconomic issues of interest to agriculture.
As president of Farm Sector Economics, Dr. Prentice's area of responsibility is in depth analysis of macroeconomic develop­ments and their implications for agricul­ture. His analysis includes a broad range of financial and labor market indicators and major National Income and Product Account variables, including the foreign trade sector.
Paul is regarded as one of the most popular writers in the field. His clear, concise analysis is widely distributed and quoted in the agricultural and business press -- from the Wall Street Journal to the Farm Journal. He has been interviewed on national TV (NBC, CNN), and was noted in Newsweek as "a respected consultant". As president of Farm Sector Economics and macroeconomics editor of Farm Financial Conditions Review, Dr. Prentice is a valuable addition to any symposium or conference.
Experience:
1985 to present: Founder and President, Farm Sector Economics, Inc., a consulting firm specializing in farm sector financial analysis and macroeconomic linkages to agriculture.
Developed original business plan, raised outside venture capital, planned and implemented marketing strategy, and created new products and services for the company. Managed the company through a first-year loss, a second-year break-even, and a third-year profit.
1999 to present: Adjunct Lecturer, College of Business and Administration, University of Colorado at Colorado Springs. Teach the MBA class BUAD 550, “Principles of Economics”.
2000 to present: Advisory Board member, Bio-Economic Research Associates, Cambridge, MA.

2006 to present: Adjunct Lecturer, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Colorado at Colorado Springs. Teach Political Science 498, “Free People, Free Markets: The Political Economy of Liberty”.
2007 – present: Board of Directors, Limited Government Forum, Colorado Springs.
2007: Visiting Lecturer, Colorado College, Colorado Springs, CO. Teach Economics 324, “Business and Society”; and Economics 317, “Investments”.
2006 to 2007: Senior Fellow, The Independence Institute. Research, publish, and speak on a variety of topics regarding Economic Liberty.
2002-2004: Public school teacher, Cheyenne Mountain Charter Academy, Colorado Springs. Taught Jr. High math and science, and 3rd-grade reading.
1995-1996: Visiting Scholar, U.S. Department of the Treasury, Washington DC
1978 to 1985: Economist for the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture. Specialized in macroeconomic forecasting, policy analysis, and linkages to agriculture.
Managed a small Project with a staff of 3 and a budget of $200,000. Built it into a full Section with a staff of 7 and a budget of $500,000.
Initiated The General Economic Outlook, a monthly briefing paper for the Office of the Secretary, USDA. Provided forecasts and analysis of the macroeconomic environment and related it to the agricultural sector. Assisted commodity analysts in interpreting the macroeconomic outlook for their supply, demand, and price analysis. Prepared the General Economy section of Agricultural Outlook, a monthly USDA periodical.
Prepared numerous background briefings and congressional testimonies. Developed a working knowledge of the forecasting and structural properties of the Wharton, Chase, and DRI econometric macromodels and agricultural models.
1972 to 1978: Graduate student, the University of Connecticut. Held several graduate student positions, including Research Assistant and Graduate Assistant. Instructor of Record for a course in Agricultural Marketing.
Developed a 105 equation nonlinear econometric macroeconomic model with an endogenous agricultural sector. The model captures the major two-way linkages between the general economy and the farm sector. Model estimation by Kelejian's nonlinear two-stage least squares, with Cochrane-Orcutt adjustments for autocorrelation. Model solution is by Gauss-Seidel iterative procedure.
Prior to 1972: Assortment of farming, construction jobs, factory jobs, self-employment and undergraduate studies.

Education:
Ph.D., Agricultural Economics, The University of Connecticut, 1986

M.S., Agricultural Economics, The University of Connecticut, 1974

B.A., Mathematics, The University of Connecticut, 1972
Professional Memberships:
International Association of Agricultural Economists

American Agricultural Economics Association

Western Association of Agricultural Economists
Publications, Articles and Citations:
Prentice, P.T., quoted in Top Producer, Spring, 2007; March, 2007; October, 2005; April 2005
Prentice, P.T., interviewed in Feedstuffs: The Weekly Newspaper for Agribusiness, 2/25/02; 11/9/98.
Prentice, P.T., quoted in The Wall Street Journal, 9/25/98; 7/1/96; 10/13/94; 7/13/94; 4/7/94; 7/9/93; 6/30/93; 3/30/93; 1/14/92; 11/19/91; 9/9/91; 8/13/91; 8/5/91; 5/20/91; 4/22/91; 4/19/91; 8/15/90; 6/11/90; 9/11/90; 6/1/89; 3/27/89; 10/25/88; 7/27/88; 7/14/88; 7/17/88; 7/24/86; 12/24/85.
Prentice, P.T., quoted in The New York Times, 4/26/96; 7/5/95
Prentice, P.T., quoted in The Washington Post, 5/11/96; 12/6/95
Prentice, P.T., quoted in U.S. News and World Report, 8/8/93
Prentice, P.T., interviewed on National Public Radio (All Things Considered), 8/22/96; WBEZ Radio, 7/24/95; NBC Radio 7/11/93; NBC Nightly News, 9/12/91; Money Radio, 9/13/91, CNN Business Day, 11/14/88; RFDTV Perspective, 10/87.
Prentice, P.T., “Global Indicators”, articles published in Global Agribusiness, December 1998, March, 1999, and June 1999
Prentice, P.T., quoted in Farm Journal, 2/97; 1/95; 1/93; 1/92; 1/91. Also quoted in numerous issues of Successful Farming, and Pro Farmer.
Prentice, P.T., et. al., Anatomy of an American Agricultural Credit Crisis, University Press of America, Lanham MD, December 1992
Prentice, P.T., "Macro Trends", Agri Finance Magazine (monthly feature article), 2/86 to 3/90
Prentice, et. al., "Forecasting Livestock Prices: Fixed and Stochastic Coefficients Estimation Comparisons", Agribusiness, Vol. 6, No. 1, Spring 1990
Prentice, P.T., "FCS and S&L's in Crisis", Choices Magazine, Third and Fourth Quarter 1989

Prentice, P.T., et. al., "Forecasting Livestock Prices: Fixed and Stochastic Coefficients Estimation, USDA Economic Research Service, Technical Bulletin #1725, Washington DC, May 1987


Prentice, P.T., "Reducing the Federal Budget Deficit: Implications for Agriculture", American Association of Agricultural Economics, Annual Meeting, Reno, NV, July 1986
Prentice, P.T. and S.C. Gabriel, "Fundamental Economics, Not Farm Policy, Now Drives Agriculture's Future", Choices Magazine, Second Quarter 1986
Prentice, P.T., "How Our Budget Deficit Drives Up the Trade Deficit", Choices Magazine, First Quarter 1986
Prentice, P.T., quoted in "Agriculture: What Deficits and Monetary Policy Mean", Futures Magazine, November 1985
Prentice, P.T. and D. A. Torgerson, "U.S. Agriculture and the Macroeconomy", Agricultural-Food Policy Review, USDA/ERS AER#530, Washington, DC, July 1985
Prentice, P.T. et al, "Forecasting Livestock Demand Using a Stochastic Coefficient Approach", American Association of Agricultural Economics Annual Meeting, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, August 1984
Prentice, P.T., "Monetarism: A Matter of Time", Second Annual Workshop on Chronic Inflation, Society of Government Economists, February 1982
Prentice, P.T. & L.P. Schertz, Inflation: A Food and Agricultural Perspective, USDA/Economic Research Service AER #463, January 1981
Prentice, P.T., "The Search for Pareto-Optimal Income Transfers: A Macromodel Approach to Decision Rules with Emphasis on the Agricultural Sector", Third Kingston Conference on Optimal Control and Game Theory, Kingston, RI, June 1978
Invited Speeches:
“The Outlook for the U.S. Economy, With Linkages to Agriculture”, Industry Outlook Conference, Denver, CO, April 2004
“The Outlook for the General Economy with Linkages to Farm Commodities”, Farm Credit Services Southwest Board of Directors’ Annual Planning Meeting, San Diego, CA, July 2003
“The Outlook for U.S. Grains and Oilseeds Markets: Discussion”, Industry Outlook Conference, Breckenridge, CO, April 2002
“Hard or Soft Landing: Prospects for Recession?”, Industry Outlook Conference, Copper Mountain Resort, CO, April 2001
“Inflation, Productivity, and Economic Growth”, Industry Outlook Conference, Las Vegas, NV, April 2000
"Global Financial and Economic Markets”, STRATUM Strategic Planning Conference, Center for Agribusiness Policy Studies, Arizona State University, Mesa AZ, February 2000
“External Financial Conditions: Implications for Farm Credit”, Farm Credit Banks’ Presidents’ Meeting, Farm Credit Administration, Denver CO, February 1999
“Challenging External Financial Conditions: Implications for Agribusiness Managers”, STRATUM Strategic Planning Conference, Center for Agribusiness Policy Studies, Arizona State University, Mesa AZ, February 1999
“Financial Conditions in the U.S. Farm Sector: Implications for International Agribusiness”, Food and Farming Matters, Royal Agricultural College, Cirencester, England, December 1998
“Macroeconomics, the Asian Flu, and Linkages to Agriculture”, Industry Outlook Conference, Chicago, IL, October 1998
“Implications of the Asian Flu for U.S. Agriculture: Issues for Agribusiness”, STRATUM 1998 Strategic Planning Conference, Center for Agribusiness Policy Studies, Arizona State University, Mesa AZ, February 1998
“Where is the Agricultural Economy Headed?, Farm Credit Bank of Wichita: Presidents’ Conference, Estes Park, CO, July 1997
“A New Financial Environment for Agribusiness”, STRATUM 1997 Strategic Planning Conference, School of Agribusiness and Resource Management, Arizona State University, Tempe AZ, February 1997
“Globalization and Competition: Implications for Farm Machinery”, North American Agricultural Equipment Conference, Atlanta GA, November 1996
“Globalization and Competition: Implications for Farm Credit”, Farm Credit Administration, Presidents’ Annual Meeting, McLean VA, November 1996
“The U.S. General Economic Outlook”, Industry Outlook Conference, Chicago IL, October 1996
“Globalization and Competition: Implications for Farm Machinery”, Farm Equipment Manufacturers Association, Annual Meeting, Albuquerque NM, April 1996
“Productivity and Agriculture: An Aggregate Analysis”, STRATUM 1996 Strategic Planning Conference, School of Agribusiness and Environmental Resources, Arizona State University, Tempe AZ, February 1996
"A New Direction for the U.S. Agricultural Economy", STRATUM 1995 Strategic Planning Conference, School of Agribusiness and Environmental Resources, Arizona State University, Tempe AZ, March 1995
"Who is Financing Livestock Production?", USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum, Washington, DC, February 1995
"Prospects for the General Economy and the U.S. Farm Sector", Arkansas Farm Bureau, Annual Meeting, Fayetteville, AR, July 1994
"The Macroeconomic Outlook and Linkages to Agriculture", Industry Outlook Conference, Kansas City, MO, April 1994
"Economic Policy and Freedom: The Case for Agriculture", American Alfalfa Processors Association, Annual Meeting, Tucson, AZ, March 1994
"The Outlook for Agriculture and the Western Farm Economy", Western Farm Credit Bank, Annual Stockholders Meeting, Monterey, CA, March 1994
"The Outlook for Agriculture: Implications for the Farm Equipment Industry", Equipment Manufacturers Institute, Ag Marketing & Management Conference, Ft. Lauderdale, FL, February 1994
"The Outlook for Food Prices and Inflation", Agricultural Outlook Conference, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC, December 1993
"The Changing Structure of Agriculture", Agricultural Bankers Conference, American Bankers Association, Dallas, TX, November 1993
"The Western Farm Economy, NAFTA, and the Clinton Budget Proposal", Annual Stockholders Meeting, Western Farm Credit Bank, Sacramento, CA, March 1993
"Financial Constraints on Policy", STRATUM 1993 Strategic Planning Conference, School of Agribusiness and Environmental Resources, Arizona State University, Tempe AZ, February 1993
"The Macroeconomic Outlook and Linkages to Agriculture", Industry Outlook Conference, Omaha, NE, October 1992
"The Outlook for the Western Farm Economy", Annual Stockholders Meeting, Western Farm Credit Bank, Phoenix, AZ, March 1992
"Strategic Planning: The Outlook for the General Economy", STRATUM 1992 Strategic Planning Conference, School of Agribusiness and Environmental Resources, Arizona State University, Tempe AZ, January 1992
"The General Economic Outlook and Implications for Meat Demand", American Meat Institute Economics Conference, Washington, DC, December 1991
"The Macroeconomic Outlook and Prospects for the Soviet Union", Industry Outlook Conference, Omaha, NE, October 1991
"The General Economic Outlook", Great Plains and Western States Outlook Conference, Fort Collins, CO, August 1991
"Strategic Planning: The Outlook for the General Economy", STRATUM 1991 Strategic Planning Conference, School of Agribusiness and Environmental Resources, Arizona State University, Tempe AZ, January 1991
"The Macroeconomic Outlook and Linkages to Agriculture", Industry Outlook Conference, Denver, CO, October 1990
"The Macroeconomic Outlook and Linkages to Agriculture", Industry Outlook Conference, Memphis, TN, April 1989
"The Outlook for Higher Inflation Ahead: Implications for Agriculture", Livestock Business Advisory Service Annual Meeting, Kansas City, MO, September 1988
"The Macroeconomic Outlook and Linkages to Agriculture", Industry Outlook Conference, Denver, CO, May 1988
"Adapting to a Changed Agriculture", Agricultural Relations Council Annual Meeting, Orlando, FLA, February 1988
"Farm Sector Financial Conditions", Farm Credit Corporation of America, Annual Planning Meeting, Chicago, IL, August 1987
"The Farm Sector Economic and Financial Outlook", Industry Outlook Session, American Association of Agricultural Economics, Annual Meetings, Michigan State Univ., August 1987
"Regional Financial Adjustments in U.S. Agriculture", The Prudential Insurance Company, Annual Planning Meeting, New York, NY, April 1987
"World Competition for Grain Markets", Canadian Farm and Industrial Equipment Institute, Annual Meeting, Toronto, Ontario, November 1986
"Farm Sector Financial Outlook and Implications for the Farm Equipment Industry", Farm and Industrial Equipment Institute, Annual Meeting, Washington, DC, August 1986
"The Macroeconomic Outlook and Linkages to Agriculture", Cooperatives Planners and Economists, Annual Planning Meeting, San Diego, CA, June 1986
"Monetary and Fiscal Policies: Impact on Agriculture", Agricultural Bankers College, American Bankers Association, Ames, IA, June 1986
"The Macroeconomic Outlook and Linkages to Agriculture", Industry Outlook Conference, New Orleans, LA, May 1986
"The Non-Crisis in American Agriculture", Society of Government Economists, Washington, DC, April 1986
"Macroeconomic Linkages to Agriculture", National Economists Club, Washington, DC, February 1985
"The Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policies", National Agricultural Credit Committee, Washington, DC, December 1984
"The General Economic Outlook", Great Plains and Western States Outlook Conference, Dillon, CO, July 1984
"The General Economic Outlook", Great Plains and Western States Outlook Conference, Laramie, WY, July 1983
Farm Sector Economics: Projects and Clients
Farm Sector Economics has a client and subscriber base of over 150 leaders in farming, agricultural finance, agribusiness, economics and policy. The range of our analysis includes projects of interest from Main Street to Wall Street. The breadth of our coverage is shown by the following projects:
A Cost/Benefit Analysis of Refinancing Agricultural Debt with Tax-Exempt Government-Guaranteed Bonds, for the Dekalb County Farm Bureau. We estimated the macroeconomic, financial market, and agricultural sector impacts of refinancing vs. a debt default scenario. Joint study with Wharton Econometrics Forecasting Associates, Philadelphia, PA.
A Reorganization Plan for a 25,000-acre cotton farm facing bankruptcy. This required an assessment of the economic and financial outlook for cotton producers in the U.S. We also developed alternative farm plans for the operation under reorganization. Sub-contracted from Schnittker Associates, Washington, D.C.
FmHA Guaranteed Lending Manual for the American Bankers Association. We interpreted regulations, anticipated and answered banker's questions, and developed strategies to work with regional bureaucracies.
Meat Demand: Industry Trends and Future Prospects to 1995, for the American Meat Institute. We considered demographic as well as economic factors. We presented the results of the study at the AMI Annual Meeting in September, 1986 in Orlando, Florida.
A Secondary Market For Farm Mortgage Loans, for the American Council of Life Insurance. We developed a comprehensive analysis of economic and financial conditions in U.S. agriculture for this study. We analyzed the economic effects of creating a secondary market for farm mortgage loans, using proposed legislation. Our study was used to successfully pass the client's legislative proposal.
A Regional Analysis of the Financial Adjustments Occurring in The Agricultural Sector: Implications for American Agribusiness, a multi-client study produced jointly with Wharton Econometrics Forecasting Associates. The study analyzes the major economic trends and forces in each region and identifies the underlying factors that will affect the economic and financial environment for agriculture over a 5-year planning horizon. Clients include:
- The Prudential Insurance Company of America

- The Farm Credit Corporation of America

- Rabobank Nederland

- Mobay Chemical Corporation

- The Farm Credit Administration

- Purina Mills, Inc.

- Basic American Foods, Inc.

- Pioneer Hi-Bred International, Inc.

- DMI Incorporated

We briefed clients on the results of the study in Washington, D.C. In addition, we briefed the Prudential Agricultural Group in New York. We used this multi-client study to develop a full-scale econometric subscription service of regional agricultural finance. This forms the core for our Agricultural Linkage Model (Ag Link) retainer service, with quarterly updates, briefings, and customized analyses with linkages to agribusiness sectors.


Alternative Configurations of Farm Credit System Districts, for the Farm Credit Administration. The project examines variability as well as levels of major financial and economic indicators.
A Financial Analysis of John Hancock's Agricultural Investment Portfolio, for the John Hancock Mutual Life Insurance Company. The project forecasts net income and value of John Hancock's agricultural properties.
The Farm Economy and the 1988 Drought, jointly with Schnittker Associates, as a multi-client briefing. Clients include:
- Pillsbury Inc.

- DeKalb Pfizer Genetics

- Pioneer Hi-Bred

- Food Marketing Institute

- International Minerals and Chemicals Corp.

- American Bakers Association

- Farm Credit Administration

- Ontario Ministry of Agriculture

- Drexel Burnham Lambert
The Farm Drought: Implications for Agriculture, Trade, and Agribusiness, jointly with Schnittker Associates, for the National Center for Food and Agricultural Policy at Resources for the Future.
The Future of the Farm Machinery and Equipment Industry: An Analysis of Major Factors Affecting Demand and the Outlook for Sales. Clients include:

- The Cummins Engine Company

- JETRO, Inc.

- DMI, Inc.

- Prairie Implement Manufacturers Association
Agricultural Chemical Use, Farm Production, and the Environment: A Legislative and Economic Analysis Including Costs and Benefits, a multi-client project jointly with Schnittker Associates. Clients include:

- International Mineral Company

- Esso Canada Agricultural Chemicals

- The Food Marketing Institute.


The Outlook For The U.S. Economy and Major Farm Commodities, for the Ontario Ministry of Agriculture.
Linkages from FCS District Farm Economic Environment to Indicators of FCS District Bank Performance, for the Farm Credit Administration.
Projects for the Farm Credit System Assistance Board (FCSAB):

- The Outlook for the Spokane Farm Credit District



  1. Merging the St. Louis and St. Paul Farm Credit Districts

  2. The Outlook for the Omaha Farm Credit District, With Linkages to the FCB

Loan Portfolio
The Outlook for the Wichita Farm Credit District, for the Farm Credit Bank of Wichita.
Farm Credit Bank of Omaha and Spokane: Merger Economic Analysis, for the Farm Credit Bank of Omaha.
Economists' Report on the Ford/Fiat UNCITRAL Arbitration, expert witness report to Simpson Thacher and Bartlett.
The Outlook for the U.S. Farm Economy: Linkages to the Farm Equipment Industry, for DMI, Inc.
Archer Daniels Midland and the High Fructose Corn Syrup Industry, expert witness report to Larkin, Hoffman, Daly and Lindgren, Ltd.
The Biodiesel Industry: Current Trends and Future Prospects, Blue Sun Biodiesel, Inc.
Privatizing Public Utilities, The Woodford Foundation.
Feasibility of a 30-Million Gallon Biodiesel Plant in Wyoming, Wyoming Rural Development Council.
Siting an Oilseed Crush Facility in NW Nebraska, Progressive Producers Cooperative
Ag Link Service, ongoing retainer clients include:

  • American Farm Bureau Federation

  • Arizona Farm Credit Association

  • Bank of America

  • Bush Hog Corporation

  • Capital Group, Inc.

  • Farm Credit Administration

  • Poultry and Egg Statistics Information

  • U.S AgBank



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