Racial winners and losers in american party politics 1

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Zoltan L. Hajnal, University of California, San Diego

Jeremy D. Horowitz, University of California, San Diego
Forthcoming, Perspectives on Politics

The Democratic and Republican Parties both make strong claims that their policies benefit racial and ethnic minorities. These claims have, however, received little systematical empirical assessment. This is an important omission, because democracy rests on the ability of the electorate to evaluate the responsiveness of those who govern. We assess Democrats’ and Republicans’ claims by compiling census data on annual changes in income, poverty, and unemployment over the last half century for each of America’s racial and ethnic groups. Judged by the empirical record, it is clear which party truly benefits America’s communities of color. When the nation is governed by Democrats, racial and ethnic minority well-being improves dramatically. By contrast, under Republican administrations, blacks, Latinos, and Asian Americans generally suffer losses.

Many in America believe that the Democratic Party serves the interests of racial and ethnic minorities and that the Republican Party does not. Minorities themselves often make this claim. Over 70 percent of African Americans contend that the Democratic Party “works hard on issues black people care about.”2 Latinos and Asian Americans are only a little less likely to believe that Democratic Party is particularly responsive to issues that affect their own pan-ethnic group.3 Even among white Americans, two-thirds claim thatthe Democratic Party provides more aid to minorities than the Republican Party.4 The logic behind these perceptions is straightforward. For decades the leadership of the Democratic Party has favored more liberal policies on race, welfare, education, crime, and a host of other social issues. The assumption is that all of these policies, when passed, have led to better outcomes for minorities.

But do minorities really gain when Democrats reign? Just how much the policy agendas of America’s two major parties benefit the racial and ethnic minority population remains an open question. Both parties make strong claims about how their agendas help minority groups. Republican leaders contend that greater efficiencies associated with more conservative policies and smaller government ultimately lead to more growth and higher incomes for all. As Ronald Reagan once argued in a speech to the NAACP, “A strong economy returns the greatest good to the black population. It returns a benefit greater than that provided by specific Federal programs. By slowing the growth of government and by limiting the tax burden and thus stimulating investment, we will also be reducing inflation and unemployment.”5 Republicans also argue that the absence of policies targeting minorities reduces race-based stigmatization and results in a more just, color-blind society.6

Democratic leaders counter that a program of greater redistribution, increased affirmative action, and tougher anti-discrimination measures does more for blacks and other minorities. As the 2004 Democratic Party platform stated, the party champions “vigorous federal enforcement of our civil rights laws” and “affirmative action to redress discrimination and to achieve the diversity from which all Americans benefit.”7 Such measures are an integral part of the party’s vision of, as Bill Clinton recently described it, “a country of shared opportunities and shared responsibility.”8 The two parties offer different paths, but both can clearly and logically claim to aid racial and ethnic minorities.

The racial dynamics of U.S. party politics have been a major topic of political science research but here, too, there is real divide over the ongoing implications of partisan control for minority well-being. Scholars have clearly demonstrated close ties between race and party at different periods in American history. Indeed, Desmond King and Rogers Smith have compellingly shown that two competing institutional orders – a white supremacist order and an egalitarian transformative order – are at the center of much of America’s political and partisan history.9 Moreover, the consequences of shifting control between these two orders for minority well-being have been clear at different points in American history. The Republican Party’s efforts to end slavery under Abraham Lincoln are the most obvious example of one party favoring a more racially egalitarian agenda than the other party.10

It is, however, less clear whether in recent decades one party’s policies can and should be viewed as being more beneficial to minority well-being. There is little doubt that race and party are still closely intertwined. There is the sheer fact that racial and ethnic minorities tend to favor Democratic candidates – often overwhelmingly – while the majority of white voters typically end up on the Republican side. In 2010, for example, 89 percent of blacks, 60 percent of Latinos, and 58 percent of Asian Americans supported Democratic candidates for Congress, while a clear majority of whites (63 percent) favored Republicans. There is also considerable evidence that racial considerations have played, and continue to play, an important role in shaping that vote.11 After the New Deal both parties were relatively quiescent and internally divided on the issue of civil rights, but the rise of the Civil Rights Movement led both parties to choose sides.12 With Kennedy and Johnson increasingly embracing a civil rights agenda and with Republicans under Goldwater and Nixon favoring a “Southern Strategy,” the racial policy gap between the parties grew substantially. Ted Carmines and James Stimson’s work effectively demonstrates the important role that racial considerations played behind the defection of large segments of the white population from the Democratic to the Republican Party.13 Michael Dawson shows likewise that racial motivations such as linked fate were equally fundamental to the black vote.14

The core question, however, is not whether race affects political choice, but rather whether the consequences of those political choices (e.g. party control) ultimately make one group better off. On this latter question there is both limited evidence and considerable disagreement. One widely help perspective maintains that Democratic Party control has indeed been an important institutional step for minority well-being. In this vein, Phil Klinkner and Rogers Smith and others laud the key part played by the Democratic Party in advancing the Civil Rights Act, the Voting Rights Act, and other transformative civil rights legislation of the 1960s.15 Benjamin Page and James Simmons likewise provide considerable evidence that the Democratic Party’s support of liberal welfare policies has benefited the poor and working classes.16 In what is undoubtedly the closest to a direct test of our hypothesis, Larry Bartels finds that Democratic control is associated with greater economic gains for the lower class than is Republican control.17

From all of this one could conclude that Democratic Party control should greatly benefit America’s racial and ethnic minorities. That conclusion is not, however, without important counter claims. One well-documented view holds that the Democratic Party, though more liberal than the Republican Party, has been half-hearted in its efforts to pursue racial equality. Both Ira Katznelson and Robert Lieberman, for example, show in different ways that liberal efforts to expand welfare and to aid the disadvantaged were at least over some periods undercut by racism in the writing and implementation of policy.18 Paul Frymer persuasively argues that because blacks have been “captured” by the Democratic Party, neither party has much incentive to target African Americans.19 A slightly different interpretation holds that although the Democratic Party has actively tried uplift minorities and the working class, it has had little tangible impact. Supporting this perspective, Jacob Hacker and Paul Pierson show that inequality has grown over the last few decades regardless of the party in power.20 Further underscoring this point is data from the APSA Taskforce on Inequality and American Democracy and critical studies by Martin Gilens and Larry Bartels showing that both political parties are especially responsive to and engaged with more privileged segments of the electorate.21 The bottom line from this perspective is that neither party should be viewed as particularly pro-minority.

Still others maintain that the Democratic Party’s color-conscious policies have done little over the past five decades to improve the well-being of minorities, and that the more color-blind agenda espoused by the Republicans would ultimately benefit minorities more. Representative of this viewpoint is work by Stephan Thernstrom and Abigail Thernstrom showing that black economic gains were more pronounced in the period before the initiation of the Democrats’ racially liberal policy agendain the 1960s than after its implementation.22

Ultimately, however, none of these studies of party dynamics directly assess gains and losses for racial and ethnic minorities under different American partisan regimes. There is an important parallel literature that evaluates different aspects of the political system’s responsiveness to minorities. Some scholars ask whether minorities are more likely than others to be altogether excluded from the polity.23 There is little doubt, as research by Sidney Verba and many others shows, that Latinos, Asian Americans, and to a lesser degree blacks are less likely than whites to participate in an array of activities in the political arena.24 Others examine the degree to which different racial groups are able to translate their votes into control over elected offices.25 Zoltan Hajnal, for example, shows that blacks are especially unlikely to have their favored candidates elected.26 Finally, and perhaps most importantly, researchers have begun to look at the link between minority preferences and legislator behavior.27 The overwhelming view, as aptly illustrated by John Griffin and Brian Newman and Daniel Butler and David Broockman, is that legislators tend to be less responsive to their black and Latino constituents.28 Griffin and Newman show convincingly that federal government spending policies reflect the views of the white majority more closely than they do the views of Latinos and African Americans.29 Taken as a whole, these studies suggest that although America’s democracy is at least somewhat responsive to minority interests, it ultimately remains more responsive to the white majority.30

These different studies shed important light onthe responsiveness of American democracy to minority interests. But we maintain that they are incomplete and therefore potentially misleading, because they tend to focus on the political process rather than on its distributive consequences. As Jane Mansbridge and others have so aptly illustrated, the process of democracy – who votes, who wins office, and what policies are passed – is vitally important to questions of legitimacy and civic identification, but we would argue that the governed are likely to be even more concerned about their material well-being.31 If, in the end, a democracy does not make its citizens better off, then the value of that democracy can be questioned. While a voluminous literature has examined minority well-being over time, it has generally not tried to tie shifts in well-being to shifts in partisan control.32 Outside of a handful of studies that have been limited to particular locales, we know little about whether minorities’ economic well-being has grown or declined under different party regimes.33

Often ignored in this conversation is the place of Latinos and Asian Americans in America’s racial hierarchy and its party system. Should we expect Latino and Asian American outcomes to be shaped by partisan control in parallel fashion to black outcomes? On one hand, there are similarities between all three minority groups. As with blacks, Latinos and Asian Americans face widespread and often negative stereotyping from the white population34 and have at times been subject to deeply racist and exclusionary practices.35 Also like blacks, Latinos and Asian Americans have generally favored Democrats in the voting booth.

At the same time, there is a range of important dissimilarities between the groups that suggests they cannot be conceptually linked. First, the experiences of the Latino and Asian American populations are shaped much more by the process of immigration. As such, their structural location in the American economy and in American society may differ fundamentally from the position of African Americans. Second, the population of both pan-ethnic groups is extraordinarily diverse. As scholars from Pei-Te Lien to Lisa Garcia-Bedolla point out, it is not clear that either pan-ethnic population should be viewed as a cohesive entity.36 Disparate socioeconomic circumstances within each group, distinctive paths to arrival in the United States, and different levels of incorporation once in the United States all imply that the same policy could affect members of each pan-ethnic group in sharply divergent ways. Third, although Asian Americans and Latinos tend to support Democrats, they do so in a far less hegemonic fashion than African Americans. To the extent political parties seek specific policies to reward particular constituent groups, one might expect blacks to experience greater benefits based on their more unstinting support as compared to the other minority groups.

Finally, and perhaps most critically for our study, the Asian American case may be particularly divergent from the black case because Asian Americans hold a less disadvantaged economic position in American society. The economic status of the Asian American population as a whole falls much closer to the status of whites than it does to either blacks or Latinos.37 Asian Americans also report much lower levels of racial discrimination against their group than do blacks or Latinos.38 For these reasons, Democratic leadership may have a less clear impact on Asian Americans.39

To help answer these debates, we offer a simple, direct test that examines the correlation between party control and minority well-being.40 This test for race does exactly what Larry Bartels’s study did for class.41 We trace the well-being of racial and ethnic minorities over time using objective, empirical measures, and then compare the relative progress of these demographic groups under different partisan regimes. Specifically, we test to see whether blacks and other racial and ethnic minorities fare better on basic indicators of well-being like income, poverty, and unemployment when Democrats control the presidency or whether they do better under Republican administrations.

We find that blacks and Latinos have made major gains on whites under Democrats and have fallen further behind under Republicans. If Democrats had been in power over the entire period we examine, much of America’s racial inequality may well have been erased. Critically, these minority gains do not come at the expense of whites. We find that, on average, white incomes have grown, and white joblessness and poverty have declined, under Democratic administrations.

These findings are important on their own terms. They also offer the kind of empirical grounding that is essential to the development of broader theorizations about race and politics in the U.S. We do not believe that existing claims about the limited responsiveness of American democracy to minority interests are wrong, but we argue that they are incomplete in that they generally fail to directly assess the connection between politics and material well-being. We also very much see this work as a contribution to American public discourse in the spirit of the 2004 APSA Task Force on Inequality and American Democracy. In the words of Lawrence Jacobs and Theda Skocpol: “Political science is uniquely positioned and qualified to offer rigorous analysis of democratic life, checking the claims of partisans, powerful sectional forces, and ill-informed commentators. Rather than self-imprisoning ourselves in a gilded cloister, our independence offers a powerful vantage point to evaluate American politics and its democratic vulnerabilities.”42 This function takes on added importance “in an era of political polarization and dramatic expansion of economic inequality.”43 Following Jacobs and Skocpol, we hope our study constitutes an application of “rigor in the service of the public good.”44

In what follows we explain our focus on race, party, and the presidency. We then detail our measurement strategy and data. That is followed by presentation and discussion of the empirical results. We conclude by highlighting the implications of our results, raising questions about what the Democratic Party has done to raise material well-being and offering a plea for more of focus on objective, empirical evaluations of different partisan regimes.
1. Party, Race, and American Presidential Politics

We assess the relative impact of Democratic and Republican presidents on the well-being of racial and ethnic minorities. Party and race represent two of the most central factors in American politics.

Our focus on race requires little explanation. The importance of race in American life and politics is hard to dispute. Historical accounts illustrate all too clearly the uneven responsiveness of the American polity to minority interests.45 In the past, blacks and other racial and ethnic minorities were routinely barred from participation.46 Even after these groups were given the right to vote, whites regularly mobilized to prevent the effective use of that ballot.47

Today, race still sharply divides Americans in terms of well-being. Lawrence Jacobs and Theda Skocpol note that “particularly striking” race-based disparities persist even as overall economic conditions improve.48 In terms of household income, blacks earn on average only $40,685. Latinos are only slightly better off earning $45,871 on average. Both figures fall well below the $65,317 average household earnings of white Americans.49 Blacks and Latinos are twice as likely as whites to be poor, twice as likely to be unemployed, and between three and five times more likely to be arrested, and they accumulate less than one-tenth of the wealth that whites acquire.50 Differences in educational outcomes are just as stark. While only 15 percent of Latinos and 23 percent of African Americans attain a bachelor’s degree by age 29, fully 40 percent of whites do so. Asian Americans tend, on the other hand, to fall closer to the top end of the spectrum in terms of material well-being with their average income and overall educational attainment both surpassing whites.51 Moreover, there are signs that racial discrimination plays an important role in shaping at least some of these outcomes.52 If we are concerned about the responsiveness of the political system to any group, race is certainly one area where we should focus our efforts.

Parties also play a critical role in American democracy and in American life. The Democratic and Republican Parties represent two very different brands with strikingly divergent policy agendas and recent polarization has only enlarged those differences.53 There is also little doubt that control by one party or the other has wide ranging implications for policy outcomes.54 Douglas Hibbs and Larry Bartels have, in particular, demonstrated sharp differences in economic outcomes under Democrats and Republicans.55As E.E. Schattschneider so aptly noted, “The political parties created democracy and modern democracy is unthinkable save in terms of the parties.”56 As such, the two major parties represent the two chief alternatives for individual voters. Determining which one better serves their interests is the core task facing almost every American voter.

Moreover, there is a very clear racial dimension to the partisan politics of America. Not only do the two parties offer contrasting policy prescriptions on matters of race but, as already noted, white voters and non-voters tend to favor different parties.

We focus on the President because that office stands at the top of American democracy. The president can veto any piece of legislation passed by Congress. As such he may have the institutional power to sway the direction of policy.57 As the only leader elected by all of the people, the president may also have the bully pulpit and hence the ability to push American government in one direction or another.58 Nevertheless, scholars have long debated just how much power the president has.59 The Framers of the Constitution sought to ensure that the president’s power was checked by Congress and the judiciary. Presidents generally cannot unilaterally pass policy. Thus, the extent of presidential power is an open question. With the election of the nation’s first African-American president, that question has received extra attention, with some claiming that Obama has been able to effect only limited change,60 and others citing important developments in health care under his presidency.61 In this article we hope to address this debate and contribute to the broader literature on presidential power by offering a concrete test of what presidents can do. Can they effect real change in the relative well-being of different groups in society?

At the same time, given their prominent roles in the Constitution and in the ongoing politics of the nation, we cannot ignore Congress or the courts. As the primary law-making body in the polity, it is possible that Congress has greater influence over the well-being of different groups in society than does the president. Indeed, there is a long-standing debate about the relative influence of Congress and the presidency.62 Therefore, in the analysis that follows we consider the partisan makeup of the House and Senate.

Some argue that the courts, too, are critical shapers of American public policy, especially with regard to racial and ethnic minority rights and well-being.63 Landmark decisions by the courts have arguably altered the economic and social trajectory of African Americans and other minorities.64 But here as well there are those who dispute the efficacy of these kinds of court decisions.65 As such, a secondary goal will be to try to assess the relative contributions of these three institutions to policymaking and outcomes for the American public. Nevertheless, our primary goal is to assess the impact of party control. Because parties are clearly so centralto politics and policy in American democracy, they are likely to play the driving role.

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