Pope, C. A. III., Burnett, R. T., Thun, M. J., Calle, E. E., Krewski, D., Ito, K., & Thurston, G. D



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POPE, C.A.III., BURNETT, R.T., THUN, M.J., CALLE, E.E., KREWSKI, D., ITO, K., & THURSTON, G.D.

Lung Cancer, Cardiopulmonary mortality, and long-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution

JAMA 2002; 287; 1132–1141

American Cancer Society cohort recruited in 1982. Analysis of over 500,000 people in an average of 51 metropolitan districts. Interesting data showing reductions in PM2.5 from 1979–1983 and from 1999–2000, values ranging from 10 to 30 in the first period, and from 5 to 20 in the second. Nonparametric smoothed response functions shown for the three categories of diagnosis; conclude that for a 10 microgram/m3 change in PM10, all cause mortality increased by 4 percent; cardiopulmonary mortality increased by 6 percent, and lung cancer mortality increased by 8 percent. Ninety-five percent confidence levels of all indices of RR were above 1.0. Coarse particle fraction and TSP not consistently associated with mortality. Other pollutants considered were sulfate, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide, and ozone. Numbers of metropolitan areas that could be considered varied with the different pollutants. Cox proportional hazards model with inclusion of a metropolitan-based random effects component in a two stage analysis. The continuous smoking variables included nine different indices (such as “current smokers years of smoking squared” and eight others). Controls also devised for educational level and occupational exposures. A two dimensional term was inserted to account for spatial trends. Higher regressions were noted in men than in women, and lower educational status was associated with higher risks. Risks in people who never smoked were also generally higher than in former or current smokers.

Authors conclude: “The findings of this study provide the strongest evidence to date that long-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution common to many metropolitan areas is an important risk factor for cardiopulmonary mortality.”


The US EPA Draft Criteria Document (June 2002) makes these points about the new analysis: “(a); doubles the follow-up time from eight years to sixteen years, and triples the number of deaths: (b) expands the ambient air pollution data substantially, including two recent years of fine particle data, and adds data on gaseous co-pollutants: (c) improves statistical adjustment for occupational exposure; (d) incorporates data on dietary covariates believed to be important factors in mortality, including total fat consumption, and consumption of vegetables, citrus fruit, and high-fiber grains: and (e) uses recent developments in non-parametric spatial smoothing and random effects statistical models as input to the Cox Proportional hazards model.”

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BOBAK, M., & LEON, D.A.

The Effect of Air Pollution on Infant Mortality appears specific for respiratory causes in the postnatal period

Epidemiology 1999; 10; 666–670

All births registered in the Czech Republic between 1989 and 1991. For each infant death, 20 controls randomly selected from infants of the same sex born on the same day and alive when the case died. Exposure assigned as the arithmetic mean of all 24-hour air pollution measurements in the district of residence of each case and control for the period between the birth and death of the index case. 2,494 infant deaths. Respiratory deaths analyzed. Risk Rate ratios for a 50 microgram/m3 increase in particles = 1.95; 1.74 for SO2; and 1.66 for NO2. Only particles showed a consistent association when all pollutants entered in one model. No evidence of an association between any pollutant and mortality from any other cause. Conclude: “the effects of air pollution on infant mortality are specific for respiratory causes in the postneonatal period, are independent of socioeconomic factors, and are not mediated by birth weight or gestational age.”

The crude RR for SO2 was 2.16; adjusted for socioeconomic was 1.94; adjusted for perinatal factors was 2.09; and adjusted for all covariates was 1.87. These values were higher than those for TSP. Similar RRs for NO2 were 1.55; 1.71;; 1.60; & 1.78.

Respiratory deaths numbered about 133.

Important observations.



3 At Hubbard Brook Research Station in New Hampshire, where scientists have been studying acid rain since the experimental forest was established there in 1955. Researchers result that acid rain has leached roughly half of the calcium from forest soils, while sharply increasing levels of sulfur, nitrogen and a toxin, aluminum. Declines in red spruce, sugar maple and likely other forest species as well are linked to acid deposition. Hubbard Brook Research Foundation, Acid Rain Revisited, March, 2001, http://www.hubbardbrook.org/education/Glossary/AcidRain.pdf.

4 The acid rain provisions of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 were intended to protect the acid-sensitive lakes and streams of northeastern Canada and the U.S. However, in 2002, 41 percent of lakes in the Adirondacks and nearly 15 percent of New England lakes remained acidic, and their recovery is hampered by the acidic anions slowly leaching from the soils.” In spite of declining sulfate concentrations, some lakes and streams have been slow to recover. Their recovery is slowed by continuing acid deposition, the presence of nitrate in surface waters, the loss of soil’s ability to neutralize excess acidity, the contribution of naturally occurring acid sources, and a lengthy lag time between deposition reduction and ecosystem recovery.” U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Acid Rain Program 2001 Progress Report, p. 37, http://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/cmprpt/arp01/2001report.pdf and BioScience [51, 180 (2001)]
In North and South Carolina, Tennessee and other states in the southeast, researchers have found circumstances mirroring those in the northeast. Streams are acidified in both the Shenandoah and Great Smoky Mountains National Parks. The loss of the capacity to neutralize acids in Shenandoah is said to be “ubiquitous.” Trout embryo survival has fallen and, in one stream, fish survivorship dropped from 80 percent to 0 percent as acid neutralizing capacity fell. National Park Service, “Acid Deposition Impacts on Aquatic and Terrestrial Ecosystems,” Technical Information in Support of the Department of the Interior's Request for a Rule to Restore and Protect Air Quality Related Values, http://www.aqd.nps.gov/ard/epa/.

5 One measure, for example, of the ability of lakes and streams to fend off the damage of acid rain is the acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) of soils which, in turn, is increased by the presence in soils of cations. If acid rain, snow and fog are not neutralized, they leach from the soil metals such as aluminum and lead, that are toxic to fish and trees. According to the EPA in its 2001 report on program progress, “Recovery, as shown by increasing acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) is occurring, especially in the Adirondacks and Pennsylvania ... However, levels of base cations, including calcium, magnesium and potassium, are not increasing; in fact, they are decreasing.” U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Acid Rain Program 2001 Progress Report, p. 37, http://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/cmprpt/arp01/2001report.pdf.

6 There are two separate sets of global temperature data maintained, one by the British Meteorological Office, the other by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, which is an arm of the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Both are based on data from different sets of temperature stations located throughout the world, and both agree that the highest temperatures on record have been in the decades of the 1980s and 1990s.

Five of the hottest years on record were during the decade of the 1980s. Record highs continued into 1990 and 1991, but were interrupted by the cooling effect from the massive 1991 explosion of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines.


This event caused the injection of huge amounts of dust into the upper atmosphere, where it cooled the Earth by reflecting sunlight. When the dust settled out, the warming trend resumed: 1995 was the hottest year on record and 1991 through 1995 was the hottest five-year period ever, despite Pinatubo’s cooling effect. More recently, 2004 was the fourth warmest on record, exceeded by 1998, 2002 and 2003. Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia and the United Kingdom Meteorology Office, http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/info/warming/
Increase in Soil Temperatures
As the Earth’s surface warms, the warmth bleeds slowly downward, gradually heating the subsurface as well. The temperature of solid stone, frozen tundra or other impermeable materials changes only through conductance, unlike permeable soils, which can be warmed or cooled as water or air percolate through. Thus, if the temperature rises beneath permafrost or in granite, it is because the surface air is warmer.
In the unpopulated wilderness of the Alaskan Arctic, where thousands of oil and gas exploration wells have been drilled, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has examined temperatures deep beneath the surface and found that they have increased. The first USGS measuring station was South Barrow Number Three, roughly 13 miles from Point Barrow, the northernmost point in North America. There, researchers found a 2- to 4-degree-centigrade warming in the last century.
When this pioneering work was reported in 1986, it set off a global inquiry. In the past ten years, findings of increased subsurface soil temperature have come from boreholes in Cuba, Australia, Greenland, Russia, France, Finland, Italy, Africa, China, New Zealand, Central Europe and Albania. John Sass, “Climate Plumbs the Depths,” Nature (February 7, 1991): 458 and personal communication, Arthur Lachenbruch on July 8, 1996.
Increase in Ocean Temperatures

Oceanographers and other scientists with the Spanish Institute of Oceanography in Madrid have measured temperature, salt content and a variety of other factors at 115 different Atlantic Ocean sites that were also surveyed in 1981 and 1957. They concluded that the ocean had not only “consistently warmed,” but the warming was “remarkably uniform [and] surprisingly deep.” The maximum warming, found at 1,100 meters depth, was occurring at a rate of 1_C per century, which the research team called “broadly consistent with model predictions of climate change due to increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration.” Gregoria Parrilla, et. al., “Rising Temperatures in the Subtropical North Atlantic Ocean Over the Past 35 Years,” Nature (May 5, 1994): 48–51.


There have been similar findings in the Pacific Ocean. Scientists at the Cooperative Research Center for Antarctic and Southern Ocean Studies in Hobart, Tasmania compared temperatures in 1989 and 1990 with measurements taken 22 years earlier between Australia and New Zealand. They found “warming throughout most of the water column,” with the largest increase of more than 0.4_C at a depth of about 3,000 decibars. In another study, these same scientists measured a comparable increase in southwestern Pacific Ocean temperatures. Tim Thwaites, “Are the Antipodes in Hot water?,” New Scientist (November 12, 1994): 21. Bindoff reported that “On the basis of measurements made 22 years apart of full-depth temperature sections in the Pacific Ocean between Australia and New Zealand, we show here that there has been a depth-averaged warming of 0.04_C and 0.03_C at 43_S and 28_S, respectively, throughout most of the water column below the mixed layer. The sea-level rise caused by expansion between a depth of 300 m and the ocean floor is 2–3 cm, consistent with the observed rate of global sea-level rise 2 . In the main thermocline there is a coherent cooling and freshening on density surfaces, consistent with surface warming in the Southern Ocean where these waters originate. Similar observations in the North Atlantic show comparable changes in the thermal structure and water-mass volumes....” Nathaniel L. Bindoff and John A. Church, “Warming of the water column in the southwest Pacific Ocean,” Nature.
Temperatures can be measured not only directly, but through surrogates, such as the speed with which sound is transmitted. In April 1994 scientists with the Transarctic Acoustic Propagation Experiment blasted 13 low-frequency sound pulses from Spitsbergen, Norway to receivers about 900 and 1600 kilometers away (600 and 1050 miles) at Camps Narwhal and Simi. Because the pulses, which travel faster in warm water, arrived an average of two seconds before they would have had temperature measurements taken a decade earlier by submarines remained unchanged, researchers concluded that the Arctic Ocean had warmed by 0.5_C at depths between 100 and 500 meters. Measurements taken five months later by a combined U.S.-Canadian icebreaker expedition found a one-degree increase. Five months after that, scientists at the Scripps Institute of Oceanography in La Jolla, California sent a single blast racing 6,500 miles across the Pacific Ocean as a test of their sound propagation system. It revealed a 0.5°C increase between California and New Zealand. Personal communication July 9, 1996 and “Listen Up! The World’s Oceans May be Starting to Warm,” Science (June 9, 1995).
Warming has also occurred in subsurface waters of the North Pole. Starting at the Bering Strait, a team of British and American scientists crossed the North Pole in a first-ever voyage by icebreaker, emerging between Spitzbergen and Greenland. They collected temperature data en route and compared it to earlier information from Russian ice stations and other voyages. Subsurface temperature had increased 1_C. A layer of water about 1,000 feet thick and starting at a depth of about 200 meters had warmed the most. “Taking a Bottom-to-Sky Slice of the Arctic Ocean,” Science, (December 23, 1994): 1947.

7 As global temperature increases, the sea levels should do the same. This is partially due to the melting of glaciers and ice caps, but principally because warm water expands, thus increasing in volume. In some areas, sea levels have been measured since the 1850s. In a few other areas, mostly in the North Sea of Europe, measurements have been taken for more than three centuries. Based on these measurements, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded that the global sea level has risen about 18 centimeters over the past century, which is consistent with the 10- to 20-centimeter rise predicted by computer models. IPCC First Assessment Report, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, I-3.

8 Reduction in Sea Ice and Polar Ice Covers
If the Earth’s temperature were increasing, areas covered with ice would begin to shrink. These areas range from glacial masses to polar ice covers. A variety of researchers throughout the world have confirmed that ice fields are shrinking and thinning.
Sea Ice
For example, researchers at the Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center in Bergen, Norway, using satellite-based microwave measurements, found not only that sea ice is melting, but that the rate of loss has increased recently. Between 1978 and 1987, the annual rate of loss was 2.5 percent, but that rate of loss nearly doubled between 1987 and 1994, rising to 4.5 percent. “Arctic Sea Ice Melting ‘Accelerated’,” Greenwire (July 18, 1995) citing the Sydney Australian.
Ice Shelves
As ice flows down the frozen flanks of the Antarctic mountains and reaches the sea, it forms massive shelves that constitute roughly 11 percent of the continent’s area. Floating in the frigid ocean exposed to both air and water, these shelves are extremely sensitive to even slight changes in temperature. “Antarctic Warmth Kills Ice Shelves,” Science News (February 17, 1996): 108.
In the last 50 years as the Antarctic temperature has climbed 2.5°C, four Antarctic ice shelves have collapsed: The Wordie ice shelf measured 2,000 square kilometers in the 1940s, but has shrunk by two-thirds; the Prince Gustav has disappeared altogether. “Climate Change: Melting Ice Shelves Prompt Concern,” Greenwire (March 28, 1995), based on reports from the London Guardian, Newsweek and the London Independent. The most dramatic of these collapses was easily that of the Larsen Ice Shelf in January 1995. As satellite imaging radar provided detailed images to the world’s scientists, the Larsen shelf disintegrated over the span of roughly five days. Mark Fahestock, “An Ice Shelf Breakup,” Science, (February 9, 1996): 775. At one point a slab of ice 48 miles by 22 miles (77 kilometers by 35 kilometers)—larger than Rhode Island—shattered free and floated away.
Reduction in Glacial Coverage
A variety of scientists throughout the world have studied glaciers for the purpose of detecting and measuring changes, if any. They have uniformly found that glaciers are shrinking and thinning.
Scientists from Monash University in Melbourne, Australia and Australian National University in Canberra have surveyed tropical Asia’s only permanently ice-capped mountain, Indonesia’s 16,023-foot Puncak Jaya Kesuma (Mount Jaya). Comparing aerial photographs of Mount Jaya from 1936 and maps drawn in 1962 with their own surveys in 1971, 1993 and 1994, they found that its glacial ice cover, which once covered 7.7 square miles, has shrunk to only one square mile. Helen Goss, “Meltdown Warning as Tropical Glaciers Trickle Away,” New Scientist (June 24, 1995): 18.
Other glaciologists at the University of Colorado’s Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research have collected a century of data from hundreds of glaciers across the world, and concluded that the Earth’s total glacier mass has shrunk by 11 percent, while that of the European Alps has declined by one-half. A separate study at the Russian Academy of Science’s Institute of Geography reached similar conclusions.

9 Bays and oceans are so complex that attributing change to any single cause is extraordinarily difficult. However, if global warming were occurring, scientists should be able to detect shifts in the ranges of plants and animals. Those preferring cold weather would be forced to move further up mountainsides and toward other colder climates. Those preferring warmer weather would expand their ranges. In several instances, researchers have indeed documented such shifts.
For example, in Monterey Bay, California, researchers compared current populations of sea life with those that had been found in the 1930s. Scientists in 1931 through 1933 had anchored brass bolts in bedrock to provide survey points for a 108-yard (98.8-meter) transect of the intertidal zone of Monterey Bay, which is the area that is periodically covered and exposed by the tide’s ebb and flow. Over 60 years later, Stanford University researchers re-established the original one-yard-square plots, then examined 35 of them in detail. They identified 58,000 specimens. Of nine species that preferred warmer waters, eight had increased significantly. One of them, for example, Serpulorbis squamigerus, a sessile aggregating gastropod, had not been found at all in 1931 through 1933 and had been rarely encountered in a mid-1960s survey, but was “common” in 1993 through 1994. J.P. Barry, et. al., “Climate-Related, Long-Term Faunal Changes in a California Rocky Intertidal Community,” Science (February 3, 1995): 672–75. In contrast, animals preferring colder waters declined sharply. During the same 60-year time span, average temperature at the shoreline rose by 0.75°C, while summertime highs were an average of 2.2°C hotter.
Other reports of rapid biological change perhaps related to warming come from tiny Macquarie Island, which lies at the center of the most rapid temperature increases on Earth. Isolated in the frigid waters of the southern Tasman Sea, roughly halfway between mineral-rich Tasmania and the frozen Antarctic continent, the island’s air and water temperatures are climbing at roughly twice the global average. Uninhabited except for a research station and roughly 800 miles from the heart-shaped Australian state of Tasmania, Macquarie is immune from the usual woes of development and tourism. Nevertheless, its seal, penguin, bird and other populations are collapsing, a “clear signal that something big is happening in the Southern Ocean,” according to one observer. Roughly 100,000 elephant seals—half the island’s population of the five-ton animals—have disappeared, and the population of rock hopper birds has dwindled by the same amount. Scientists blame the declines on sea surface temperature increases, which they believe have caused a collapse in stocks of krill, tiny shrimp-like animals that form the base of the Antarctic marine food chain. “Climate Change: Macquarie’s Woes Linked to Rising Temps?” Greenwire (January 24, 1996) citing the Sydney Morning Herald (January 13).
Analogous change, but at terrestrial sites, was found by researchers from the University of Vienna in Austria. During the summer of 1992, they inspected summit conditions on 26 Swiss and Austrian Alps higher than 3,000 meters and compared them to records from 90 years earlier. They found plants moving skyward as fast as 12 feet per decade, appearing in areas historically so cold and hostile that they had previously been devoid of plant life. Georg Grabherr, et. al., “Climate Effects on Mountain Plants,” Nature (June 9, 1994) and Carol Kaesuk Yoon, “Warming Moves Plants Up Peaks, Threatening Extinction,” The New York Times (June 21, 1994): C4.

10 For example, scientists from the International Development Research Center located in New Delhi, India found that in Rwanda average temperatures had risen about 1°C and that over that same period the incidence of malaria had jumped 250 percent nationally. Among children and those living in high altitude areas, the increase was more than five fold, as the disease spread into areas where researchers said it previously had been rare or absent altogether. A key factor seemed to be nighttime warming, since cooler evening temperatures inhibit spread of both the anopheles mosquito and the plasmodium parasite that it transmits. Epidemics of malaria also occurred during the late 1980s in Botswana, Madagascar, Swaziland and Zambia, all countries with temperature and geography similar to Rwanda. Michael Loevinsohn, “Climatic Warming and Increased Malaria Incidence in Rwanda,” The Lancet (March 19, 1994): 98–101.
In 1999, Texas health officials reported 16 Texas-acquired (as opposed to infections that originated in Central America or elsewhere, and later expressed in Texas) cases of dengue fever this year in Cameron, Hidalgo, Starr, Webb and Willacy counties. Texas Department of Health, “Texas Records Dengue Fever Death,” Dec. 22, 1999, http://www.tdh.state.tx.us/news/b_new300.htm This was said to be the largest outbreak of dengue fever to strike the state in almost 20 years. Cable Network News, “Texas experiences first dengue outbreak in almost 20 years,” Oct. 6, 1999, http://www.cnn.com/HEALTH/9910/06/dengue.fever/.

11 As releases to and concentrations of wastes in the atmosphere have risen, so too has the Earth’s temperature, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). It states that the globally averaged temperature of the air at the Earth’s surface has warmed between 0.3 and 0.6°C (about 0.5 and 1°F) since the late 19th century. Nine of 11 years during the 11-year period from 1987 through 1997 were the hottest on record.


The National Academy of Sciences warned in 1986 that “We are pushing our climate and environment—the surroundings in which we live, work and play—into a region literally unexperienced during the history of homo sapiens .... We are reluctant to accept a reassuring forecast for a warmer globe because of imponderables. We know that major changes are likely to produce major unforeseen consequences—indeed the unforecasted Antarctic ozone hole may be just such an example of an unforeseen consequence of changes acting on a complex system.” National Academy of Sciences Current Issues in Atmospheric Change (Washington, D.C., 1986).

12 One analysis on London air found the following pollutants: SO2, CO, CH4, C2H6, C3H8, nC4H10, iC4H10, nC5H12, if7H12, C2H4, C3H6, But-1-ene , But-2-ene , Butylene, Pent-1-ene , Pent-2-ene, 2-Metylbut-1-ene, 3-Methylbut-1-ene, 2-Metylbut-2-ene, C2H2, Toluene, o-Xylene, m-Xylene, p-Xylene, Ethyl-benzene, HCHO,0.65, CH3CHO, C2H5CHO, nC3H7CHO, iC3H7CHO, C4H9CHO, Benzaldehyde, CH3COCH3, CH3COC2H5, Diethylketone, Methyl-propylketone, Methyl-isopropylketone, CH3OH. http://www.itass.dk/trozbas.htm

13 See, e.g., U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,"The Plain English Guide to the Clean Air Act," http//www.epa.gov/oar/oaqps/peg_caa11.html and "Transportation and Air Quality," http//www.epa.gov/otaq/index.htm. Re particle size: see "PM2.5," http//www.epa.gov/region4/sesd/pm25/p2.htm.

14 http//www.arb.ca.gov/toxics/tac/factsheetdiesex.pdf



15 re coal, "Bituminous and Subbituminous Coal Combustion," http//www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/ap42/ch01/final/c01s01.pdf; re vehicle fuels, "Fuels and Fuel Additives," http//www.epa.gov/otaq/fuels.htm.



16 This so called “thermal” NOX is produced by a chemical sequence known as the Zeldovich Mechanism. At high temperature, both nitrogen (N2) and oxygen (O2) are dissociated into atoms that react: , , N2 + O « NO + N, , N + O2 « NO + O, , N + OH « NO + H, , NO is the principal reaction product. The major factors that affect thermal NOX production are flame temperature, residence time at temperature, the degree of fuel/air mixing, and the concentrations of oxygen and nitrogen in the flame. See U.S. Department of Energy at http://www.netl.doe.gov/coal/turbines/background/noxform.html.

17 Although nitrous oxide (N2O) also occurs naturally, most is formed when the nitrogen and oxygen in the atmosphere react with one another. N2O is created during the manufacture and use of fertilizer, as well as the combustion of fossil fuels and, importantly, the making of nylon. In 1990, N2O accounted for about 2.5 percent of U.S. emissions of greenhouse gases.

18 [913]
CLARKSON, T.W., MAGOS, L., & MYERS, G.J.The Toxicology of Mercury—Current exposures and clinical manifestationsNew Engl J Med 2003: 349: 1731–1737Notes different forms of mercury and routes of exposure. Methyl and ethyl mercury are described, and a new hazard is ethyl mercury as this is contained in thimerasol used as a preservative in vaccine. The US EPA has recently reduced the allowable intake of methyl mercury from 0.5 micrograms of mercury per kilogram of body weight per day, to 0.1.
Table gives different forms and clinical consequences; chelators are effective in treatment only for mercury vapor and inorganic divalent mercury, not for methyl and ethyl forms. CNS manifestations include peripheral neuropathy, and pneumonitis and proteinuria occur with mercury vapor poisoning. Methyl mercury causes paresthesia, ataxia, and visual and hearing loss. Increase in mercury in fish-eating birds documented from 1840 to 1965 based on feather analyses. 52 references.
[1073]
RENNER, R.
Mercury woes appear to grow.
Environ Sci Technol April 15, 2004: 144A

Mercury level in fetal blood is 1.7 times higher than in maternal blood; hence a maternal level of only 3.5 ppb in maternal blood would mean that the fetus’ blood level exceeds 5.8 ppb which is considered to be the maximal safety level. Nearly 16 percent of U.S. women have mercury blood levels of 3.5 ppb or higher, according to data from the U.S. CDC.


19 Other heavy metals emitted from coal combustion include antimony, beryillium, chromium, cobalt, lead, managanese and nickel. Table 1.1-16, Emission Factor Equations at p. 1.1-37, "Bituminous and Subbituminous Coal Combustion," http//www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/ap42/ch01/final/c01s01.pdf.
20 Derwent, R., Collins, W., Johnson, C. and Stevenson, D. Transient Behaviour of Tropospheric Ozone Precursors in a Global 3-D CTM and Their Indirect Greenhouse Effects. 49 Climatic Change 4, pp. 463-87, June 2001.
21 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, "Methane Sources and Emissions," http://www.epa.gov/methane/sources.html.
22 There have been several reports of elevated mid-ocean and rural area ozone levels. One of the most striking was that of a group of researchers from the Max Planck Institute, who remarked that "Remarkably and unexpectedly, however, in the subtropics, the tropics and the southern hemisphere, ozone increases since 1980 have been much larger. In some regions the ozone levels have even doubled in two decades. The area where the high ozone concentrations have been measured is mostly downwind of Africa, and the researchers have calculated that biomass burning and especially increasing energy use on this continent have contributed substantially to emissions of nitrogen oxides, thus catalyzing ozone formation. The implication is that increasing energy use worldwide causes large-scale ozone increases, thus reducing global air quality." Lelieveld, J. van Aardenne, J., Fischer, H. de Reus, M., Williams, J. and Winkler, P. Increasing Ozone over the Atlantic Ocean, Science Express, 13 May 2004
23 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, "Source Contributions to PM-2.5 in Ambient Air," http//www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/eiip/pm25inventory/newtopmc2.pdf.
24 Applied Biological Sciences
Global atmospheric black carbon inferred from AERONET

Makiko Sato * , James Hansen * , Dorothy Koch * , Andrew Lacis * , Reto Ruedy * §, Oleg Dubovik **, Brent Holben **, Mian Chin ** and Tica Novakov ||


* National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies and

Columbia University Earth Institute, New York, NY 10025;

§ SGT, Inc., 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025;
** Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771; and
|| Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720
Contributed by James Hansen, April 1, 2003
AERONET, a network of well calibrated sunphotometers, provides data on aerosol optical depth and absorption optical depth at >250 sites around the world. The spectral range of AERONET allows discrimination between constituents that absorb most strongly in the UV region, such as soil dust and organic carbon, and the more ubiquitously absorbing black carbon (BC). AERONET locations, primarily continental, are not representative of the global mean, but they can be used to calibrate global aerosol climatologies produced by tracer transport models. We find that the amount of BC in current climatologies must be increased by a factor of 2–4 to yield best agreement with AERONET, in the approximation in which BC is externally mixed with other aerosols. The inferred climate forcing by BC, regardless of whether it is internally or externally mixed, is {approx}1 W/m2, most of which is probably anthropogenic. This positive forcing (warming) by BC must substantially counterbalance cooling by anthropogenic reflective aerosols. Thus, especially if reflective aerosols such as sulfates are reduced, it is important to reduce BC to minimize global warming. http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/abstract/100/11/6319

25 “The origin, fate, and health effects of combustion by-products: a research framework - Workshop Summaries “ Environmental Health Perspectives, Nov, 2002.

Incomplete combustion processes can emit organic pollutants, metals, and fine particles. Combustion by-products represent global human and environmental health challenges that are relevant not only in heavily industrialized nations, but also developing nations where up to 90 percent of rural households rely on unprocessed biomass fules for cooking, warmth, and light. These issues were addressed at the Seventh International Congress on Combustion By-Products, convened 4–6 June 2001 in Research Triangle Park, North Carolina. This congress included a diverse group of multidisciplinary researchers and practitioners who discussed recent develop-merits and future goals in the control of combustion by-products and their effects of exposure on human and ecological health. Participants recommended that interdisciplinary, coordinated research efforts should be focused to capitalize on the important potential synergisms between efforts to reduce the adverse human health effects linked to exposures to combustion by-products and broader efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and save energy through efficiency.


26 Hansen, J. "Global Warming in the 21st Century: An Alternative Scenario," Goddard Institute for Space Studies, http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/features/altscenario/.

27 Without the effects of pollution, the natural visual range in the United States is roughly 75 to 150 kilometers (45 to 90 miles) in the East and 200 to 300 kilometers (120 to 180 miles) in the West. Because of air pollution, however, visibility ranges in the U.S. are substantially less than what they should be. In the East, sulfate is clearly the largest contributor to visibility impairment, ranging from an average 75–79 percent of each year’s during the haziest days. In the eastern United States, reduced visibility is mainly attributable to secondarily formed sulfates. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Air Quality 2001 Status and Trends, http://www.epa.gov/air/aqtrnd01/visible.html.





28 Hansen, J., Nazarenko, L.; “Soot Climate Forcing via Snow and Ice Albedos,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

29 Novakov, T., Ramanathan, V., Hansen, J.E., Kirchstetter, T.W., Sato, M., Sinton, J.E., Sathaye, J.A.; Large Historical Changes of Fossil-Fuel Black Carbon Aerosols, Geophysical Research Letters, March 26, 2003 (Vol. 30 No. 6).

30 Surabi Menon, S., Hansen, J., Nazarenko, L., Luo, Y.; “Climate Effects of Black Carbon Aerosols in China and India,” Science, Vol 297, Issue 5590, 2250–2253, 27 September 2002.

In recent decades, there has been a tendency toward increased summer floods in south China, increased drought in north China, and moderate cooling in China and India while most of the world has been warming. Using a global climate model to investigate possible aerosol contributions to these trends disclosed precipitation and temperature changes in the model that were comparable to those observed if the aerosols included a large proportion of absorbing black carbon (“soot”), similar to observed amounts. Absorbing aerosols heat the air, alter regional atmospheric stability and vertical motions, and affect the large-scale circulation and hydrologic cycle with significant regional climate effects.


31 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “Science Topics: Particulate Matter: Background,” http://es.epa.gov/ncer/science/pm/#pm. See also D.V. Bates and Curtis Moore, Health & Clean Air Newsletter, “The Particulars of Air Quality,” Spring, 2002, http://healthandcleanair.org/newsletters/spring2002.html.

32 Murray, C. and Lopez, A., Eds., The Global Volume of Disease, Volume I, World Health Organization, Harvard School of Public Health and the World Bank, Geneva, 1996. The World Health Organization estimates that one quarter of the world population is exposed to unhealthy concentrations of air pollutants. See "Air pollution," http://www.who.int/ceh/risks/cehair/en/print.html.
33 [266]
POPE, C.A.III., BURNETT, R.T., THUN, M.J., CALLE, E.E., KREWSKI, D., ITO, K., & THURSTON, G.D.

Lung Cancer, Cardiopulmonary mortality, and long-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution


JAMA 2002; 287; 1132-1141

American Cancer Society cohort recruited in 1982. Analysis of over 500,000 people in an average of 51 metropolitan districts. Interesting data showing reductions in PM2.5 from 1979-1983 and from 1999 to 2000, values ranging from 10 to 30 in the first period, and from 5 to 20 in the second. Nonparametric smoothed response functions shown for the three categories of diagnosis; conclude that for a 10 microgram/m3 change in PM10, all cause mortality increased by 4%; cardiopulmonary mortality increased by 6%, and lung cancer mortality increased by 8%. 95% confidence levels of all indices of RR were above 1.0. Coarse particle fraction and TSP not consistently associated with mortality. Other pollutants considered were sulfate, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide, and ozone. Numbers of metropolitan areas that could be considered varied with the different pollutants. Cox proportional hazards model with inclusion of a metropolitan-based random effects component in a two stage analysis. The continuous smoking variables included nine different indices (such as “current smokers years of smoking squared” and eight others). Controls also devised for educational level and occupational exposures. A 2 dimensional term was inserted to account for spatial trends. Higher regressions were noted in men than in women, and lower educational status was associated with higher risks. Risks in never smokers were also generally higher than in former or current smokers.

Authors conclude: “The findings of this study provide the strongest evidence to date that long-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution common to many metropolitan areas is an important risk factor for cardiopulmonary mortality”.

The US EPA Draft Criteria Document (June 2002) makes these points about the new analysis: “(a); doubles the follow-up time from eight years to sixteen years, and triples the number of deaths: (b) expands the ambient air pollution data substantially, including two recent years of fine particle data, and adds data on gaseous co-pollutants: (c) improves statistical adjustment for occupational exposure; (d) incorporates data on dietary covariates believed to be important factors in mortality, including total fat consumption, and consumption of vegetables, citrus fruit, and high-fiber grains: and (e) uses recent developments in non-parametric spatial smoothing and random effects statistical models as input to the Cox Proportional hazards model.”


34 The California Coalition for Clean Air reviewed air quality literature, and found that 1999 levels, the latest available, particularly for particulate matter (PM10) were as follows:
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