Online Appendix: Coding of Variables anes



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Online Appendix: Coding of Variables

ANES
Approval of Bush’s handling of war in Iraq (v043132, v043133): 4-point scale from strongly approve to strongly disapprove, rescaled to 0-1 where 0 = strongly disapprove, 0.33 = disapprove, 0.66 approve, 1 = strongly approve
Approval of Bush’s handling of war on terror (v043032, v043033): 4-point scale from strongly approve to strongly disapprove, rescaled to 0-1 where 0 = strongly disapprove, 0.33 = disapprove, 0.66 approve, 1 = strongly approve
Approval of Bush’s handling of economy (v043026, v043027): 4-point scale from strongly approve to strongly disapprove, rescaled to 0-1 where 0 = strongly disapprove, 0.33 = disapprove, 0.66 approve, 1 = strongly approve
Democrat/Republican/independent identifier (v043116): 1 = identify with Democrats, 0 = do not identify with Democrats; 1 = identify with Republicans, 0 = do not identify with Republicans; 1 = identify as independent, 0 = do not identify as independent
Relative strength of leaders (v043118, v043125): 7-point scale from +1 most pro-Bush to -1 most pro-Kerry
Relative caring of leaders (v043119, v043126): 7-point scale from +1 most pro-Bush to -1 most pro-Kerry
Relative knowledge of leaders (v043120, v043127): 7-point scale from +1 most pro-Bush to -1 most pro-Kerry
Relative morality of leaders (v043117, v043124): 7-point scale from +1 most pro-Bush to -1 most pro-Kerry
Relative honesty of leaders (v043122, v043129): 7-point scale from +1 most pro-Bush to -1 most pro-Kerry
Relative feelings toward leaders (v043038, v043039): 201-points rescaled to +1 = most pro-Bush to -1 = most pro-Kerry

Vote choice (v045025, V045026): dummy variables where 1 = voted Bush, 0 = did not vote Bush (including non-voters), and 1 = voted Kerry, 0 = did not vote Kerry (including non-voters)



BES Rolling Cross Section

Labour’s handling of War in Iraq (pre_q13): 5-point scale from very well to very badly, rescaled to 0-1 where 0 = very badly, 1 = very well


Labour’s handling of war on terror (pre_q10): 5-point scale from very well to very badly, rescaled to 0-1 where 0 = very badly, 1 = very well
Labour’s handling of economy (pre_q12): 5-point scale from very well to very badly, rescaled to 0-1 where 0 = very badly, 1 = very well
Labour/Conservative/Liberal Democrat party identifier (pre_q29, pre_q31, pre_q144): 1 = identify with Labour Party, 0 = do not identify with Labour Party; 1 = identify with Conservative Party, 0 = do not identify with Conservative Party; 1 = identify with Liberal Democrat Party, 0 = do not identify with Liberal Democrat Party.
Relative competence of leaders (pre_q50, pre_q62, pre_q51, pre_q63): 21-points rescaled to +1 = most pro-Blair to -1 = most pro-Howard
Relative responsiveness of leaders (pre_q53, pre_q65, pre_q54, pre_q66): 21-points rescaled to +1 = most pro-Blair to -1 = most pro-Howard
Relative trust of leaders (pre_q56, pre_q59, pre_q57, pre_q60): 21-points rescaled to +1 = most pro-Blair to -1 = most pro-Howard
Relative feelings toward leaders (cam_q41, cam_q42): 21-points rescaled to +1 = most pro-Blair to -1 = most pro-Howard

Vote choice (post_q19, post_q20): dummy variables where 1 = voted Labour, 0 = did not vote Labour (including non-voters), 1 = voted Conservative, 0 = did not vote Conservative (including non-voters), and 1 = voted Liberal Democrat, 0 = did not vote Liberal Democrat (including non-voters)



Table A1: Univariate Statistics for Variables Used in Models (Mean Scores)




ANES

BES

Approval of War in Iraq (0-1 scale)

.39

.29

Approval of war on terror (0-1 scale)

.53

.48

Approval of economy (0-1 scale)

.42

.61

Relative feelings toward leaders (-1 to 1 scale)

.02

.05

Relative knowledge (-1 to 1 scale)

-.11




Relative morality (-1 to 1 scale)

.04




Relative honesty (-1 to 1 scale)

-.03




Relative caring (-1 to 1 scale)

-.07




Relative strength (-1 to 1 scale)

.10




Relative competence (-1 to 1 scale)




.05

Relative trustworthiness (-1 to 1 scale)




-.01

Relative responsiveness (-1 to 1 scale)




-.09


Table A2: Party Identification and the Impact of the War in Iraq in the US





Specific leadership qualities




Vote preference





Knowledgeable


Moral


Honest


Cares


Strong

Overall feelings


Bush


Kerry

War in Iraq

























Republican identifier

.39 (.07)*

.37 (.06)*

.34 (.07)*

.41 (.07)*

.30 (.06)*

.14 (.04)*

.11 (.08)

-.16 (.05)*

Democrat identifier

.27 (.07)*

.29 (.06)*

.29 (.08)*

.26 (.08)*

.39 (.08)*

.16 (.04)*

.16 (.07)*

-.22 (.09)*

war on terror

























Republican identifier

-.07 (.09)

.11 (.07)

.13 (.10)

.07 (.09)

.34 (.09)*

.08 (.05)#

.08 (.10)

-.06 (.07)

Democrat identifier

.38 (.06)*

.20 (.05)*

.23 (.06)*

.15 (.06)*

.30 (.06)*

.14 (.03)*

.05 (.04)

-.08 (.07)

Economy

























Republican identifier

.15 (.05)*

.16 (.05)*

.13 (.06)*

.24 (.06)*

.15 (.05)*

.10 (.03)*

.16 (.07)*

-.10 (.04)*

Democrat identifier

.12 (.06)#

.16 (.06)*

.18 (.06)*

.39 (.06)*

.21 (.05)*

.09 (.04)*

.11 (.07)

-.03 (.08)

Strong

























Republican identifier
















.18 (.04)*







Democrat identifier
















.20 (.03)*







Knowledgeable

























Republican identifier
















.04 (.03)







Democrat identifier
















.12 (.03)*







Moral

























Republican identifier
















.17 (.03)*







Democrat identifier
















.02 (.03)







Cares

























Republican identifier
















.22 (.04)*







Democrat identifier
















.30 (.04)*







Honest

























Republican identifier
















.13 (.03)*







Democrat identifier
















.09 (.03)*







Overall feelings

























Republican identifier



















.31 (.07)*

-.14 (.05)*

Democrat identifier



















.17 (.04)*

-.41 (.08)*

Constant



















-




Republican identifier

-.19 (.07)*

-.09 (.06)

-.17 (.07)*

-.20 (.07)*

-.10 (.08)

-.04 (.04)

.37 (.07)*

.38 (.08)*

Democrat identifier

-.52 (.02)*

-.36 (.02)

-.43 (.03)*

-.57 (.02)*

-.40 (.02)*

-.20 (.02)*

.10 (.03)*

.62 (.05)*

n= 783, Chi2=.58

RMSEA = .000 (lower bound = .000, upper bound = .036)

Comparative Fit Index=1.00


*p<.05 #p<.10

Notes: Coefficients are from structural equation model asymptotic distribution free estimates


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