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AT: Authoritarian Worse




Transition to democracy is comparatively riskier. Backsliding is less of a war risk.


Mansfield and Snyder 95 (Edward, Chair of the Political Science Department, and Director of the Christopher H. Browne Center for International Politics – University of Pennsylvania, Jack, PhD in political science and Professor of Political Scienc/Director of the Institute of War and Peace Studies – Columbia University, “Democratization and the Danger of War” International Security, Vol. 20, No. 1 (Summer, 1995), The MIT Press, pp. 18-19, Jstor)
Although democratization increases the probability of war, autocratization is also dangerous. Autocratizing states were more likely to go to war than coun- tries experiencing no regime change, based on the results of 16 out of 24 tests, which are presented in Figures 1 and 2. However, autocratization tends to be a somewhat less combustible process than democratization. States in the proc- ess of democratization are more likely to go to war than those in the process of autocratization, based on the results of 17 out of 24 tests that we conducted. Like the effects of democratization on war, the effects of autocratization vary across the different indices and periods of time that we analyzed. For example, on average, autocratization yields about a 35 percent greater likelihood of war than does the absence of regime change, when we focus on a state's competi- tiveness of participation, and about a 25 percent increase in the probability of war, when we focus on a polity's constraints on its executive. In contrast, autocratization decreases the likelihood of war in many cases compared to a country that experienced no regime change, based on the composite index and on the openness of executive recruitment. Our findings also indicate that autocratization is less likely to lead to war over the short run than in the long run. Regardless of whether all wars or interstate wars are analyzed, autocratization occurring over a one-year period substantially decreases the probability of war compared to states experiencing no regime change, based on every measure except the competitiveness of participation. In contrast, as the results in Table 1 show, autocratization over a ten-year period yields a marked percentage increase in the probability of war in every instance.

***MIDDLE EAST STABILITY***




**Generic**

Middle east Stable



Israel and Palestine heading towards a new friendship which improves Middle East stability

Layalina Review 10 ( a bi-weekley publication that monitors developments in the spheres of public diplomacy and Arab media, “Middle East Peace Negotiation: A Light at the End of the Tunnel?”, Vol. VI NO. 14, 7/2-7/15, http://www.layalina.tv/publications/review/PR_VI.14/article7.html/MZ)
Stressing the weight the US holds in the Middle East peacemaking equation as a financial and military force, Hanania suggests that President Abbas "should recognize that the battle is not in the Gaza Strip but in the mind-set of the American public, where the future of Palestine, two states and Middle East peace will be decided." He encouraged the Palestinian President to engage the American public directly, especially at a time when he has a "friend at the White House." However, engaging the American public seemed to be a priority on the Palestinian President's agenda when he visited President Obama on June 9th, in advance of Netanyahu's visit. "The most important aspect of the Palestinian visit was the striking demonstration of Palestinian forth coming on peace, especially from Abbas personally," writes Hussein Ibish for The American Task Force on Palestine. While Abbas' visit coincided with the devastating flotilla attack, the president firmly pointed out that while the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) denounced Israel's offensive actions, refusing to continue the diplomacy talks would pointlessly damage the Palestinian national interests. Presenting themselves as a real diplomatic and political partner in peace to the US administration, the Palestinians demonstrated a constructive position in relation to direct peace talks with Israel. They agreed to resume direct negotiations once the US establishes a more "diplomatic and political groundwork" for the proximity talks with the Israeli government regarding basic borders and security issues. In another successful public diplomacy attempts during the visit, President Abbas had an unprecedented dinner with 30 key Jewish American leaders, answering questions and reflecting on Jewish and Palestinian historic ties. Abbas also attended to questions at a discussion at The Brookings Institute, moderated by Martin Indyk, the Brookings' Vice President. Indyk notes in an article for The Washington Post that Abbas' outreach to the Obama administration and Netanyahu's halt on housing in the West Bank have helped "create the most conducive environment for peace negotiations since the outbreak of the second intifada in 2000."

Middle East stabilizing as Israel and Palestine relations are increasing- other Arab countries will follow suit

America.gov 10 (US department of State, “Obama Urges Confidence-Building Measures in the Middle East”, 7/6, http://www.America.gov/st/mena-english/2010/July/20100706171630esnam fuak4.339236e-02.html/MZ)

Washington — President Obama urged Israel, the Palestinians and neighboring Arab states to undertake confidence-building measures to improve the climate in the region for peace, and said he believes that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is willing to take risks for a peace settlement. Speaking with Netanyahu at the White House July 6, Obama said there are measures available to all sides that would improve the prospect of successful peace negotiations, and that he had discussed them with both the Israeli leader and with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas during the Palestinian leader’s June 9 visit to Washington. “There are going to need to be a whole set of confidence-building measures to make sure that people are serious and that we're sending a signal to the region that this isn't just more talk and more process without action,” Obama said. The president welcomed Israel’s announcement of new measures to ease its blockade of Gaza, and said continued progress to build confidence among the Palestinians would help them “see in very concrete terms what peace can bring that rhetoric and violence cannot bring.” Commending Netanyahu for allowing more goods into Gaza, Obama said Israel’s new policy has “moved more quickly and more effectively than many people anticipated,” and that the United States believes “there is a way to make sure that the people of Gaza are able to prosper economically while Israel is able to maintain its legitimate security needs in not allowing missiles and weapons to get to Hamas.” Obama also said President Abbas has been working with Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad to do “very significant things” to improve security, and said it would be very meaningful to the Palestinian people if the scope of their responsibilities in the West Bank could be expanded. The president also urged Arab states to support peace efforts, which he said cannot succeed without “a greater investment in the process than we've seen so far” by others in the region. Obama says he hopes direct talks between Israel and the Palestinians will begin prior to the September expiration of Israel’s six-month settlement moratorium. Obama added that he hopes such discussions “will create a climate in which everybody feels a greater investment and success,” and will generate more trust so that “not every action, by one party or the other, is taken as a reason for not engaging in talks.”



Israel’s new policies are key to sustaining Middle East stability

America.gov 10 (US department of State, “Obama Urges Confidence-Building Measures in the Middle East”, 7/6, http://www.America.gov/st/mena-english/2010/July/20100706171630esnam fuak4.339236e-02.html/MZ)

At the State Department, press office director Mark Toner described Israel’s decision to ease the blockade against Gaza as “a great step forward,” and said it is helping to “improve the quality of life for the people of Gaza while addressing Israel's legitimate security concerns.” Israel published a list of goods that are banned from Gaza on July 5. The list includes weapons and materials that can be used to make them. The list expands the range of merchandise that is being allowed into the territory, which has been under the control of Hamas since 2007. Speaking to reporters July 6, Toner said the list will increase the flow of goods and material into Gaza and significantly improve the access that Gazans have to those items. “We've worked closely with the Israel government as it developed the list,” Toner said, adding the United State will continue to work with Israel, the Palestinians, Egypt and others in the international community to help ensure that the new policies are implemented.



US and Israel relations sustain the stability in the Middle East and Israel won’t strike Iran- no tech and they prefer sanctions

World tribune 10 (Intelligence Briefing, special to world tribune, “Obama expects ‘no surprises’: Israel won’t strike without U.S. permission”, http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2010/ss _israel0634_07_09.asp/MZ)
The president, who has pursued a reconciliation policy with Teheran, said the strategic relationship between Israel and the United States would not allow for a unilateral Israeli strike, Middle East Newsline reported. "I think the relationship between Israel and the U.S. is sufficiently strong that neither of us try to surprise each other," Obama said. In 2010, the Obama administration, including Vice President Joseph Biden, warned Israel not to attack Iran. Netanyahu, who has urged the international community to intensify sanctions, has repeatedly assured that Israel was not planning an imminent strike on Iran. Since 2007, officials said, the United States has withheld military systems that could facilitate an Israeli air strike on Iran. The banned systems were said to have included air refueling, advanced reconnaissance and buster-bunker bombs, long requested by Israel. Obama also said Israel and the PA could reach a full settlement by the end of his first term in 2013. The president did not respond to a question of whether he was pressing Israel to extend its 10-month ban on Jewish construction in the West Bank and most of Jerusalem."I think [Netanyahu] understands we've got a fairly narrow window of opportunity," Obama said. "We probably won’t have a better opportunity than we have right now. And that has to be seized. It’s going to be difficult." "But we try to coordinate on issues of mutual concern," Obama said.




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