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Econ Stable Iranian economy is stable, despite UNSC sanctions



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Econ Stable

Iranian economy is stable, despite UNSC sanctions.

Press TV 7/1 (English language global news network owned by the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB), “Iran Economy Ups Despite Sanctions”, July 1, 2010, Press TV, http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=132923§ionid=351020102)


The volume of transactions in Iran's investment market has seen a 10 percent growth despite new UN Security Council (UNSC) sanctions, an Iranian official says. The UNSC adopted new sanctions against the Islamic Republic last month. The sanctions came after US's hard lobbying for new punitive measures against Tehran over its nuclear work. Behrouz Alishiri, Deputy Minister of Economic Affairs and Finance, said Thursday that the new sanctions have proved to be futile as the volume of transactions in Iran's investment market has seen a 10 percent growth since the ratification of the UN resolution, IRNA reported. The Iranian official further pointed out that according to the reports released by the International Monetary Fund, foreign investment in Iran has risen from $900 million in 2007 to $3 billion in 2009. Alishiri, who is also the Director of the Organization for Investment, Economic and Technical Assistance of Iran, said that cheap energy resources and skillful human force were among the reasons behind foreign investment in the country. According to Alishiri, Iran's stable economic condition has also attracted foreign investment to the country.

Econ Growing

Econ under strain, but will see growth in the coming year.


Dahl and Lyon 10 (Fredrik and Alistair, Fredrik is a senior scientist at the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment  and Alistair is Reuters Middle East Diplomatic Correspondent, “Analysis- Forget Guided Elite, Iran’s Economy is Under Strain”, Feb. 17, 2010, Reuters, http://in.reuters.com/article/idINIndia-46241720100217)
The economy, while not in crisis, confronts significant difficulties, said a Western diplomat in Tehran. "It's a gradual, continuing decline. There doesn't seem to be anybody pushing policies that could reverse it, for example by allowing more foreign investment, reducing the state sector or devaluing the rial to help the domestic sector," he said. The government has passed a subsidy reform plan aimed at saving $100 billion from the state budget, despite critics who say phasing out price supports on petrol, electricity, cooking gas, food, water, health and education will fuel inflation. The Central Bank says inflation, rarely below double digits in recent years, fell to 7.8 percent in January, compared with the same month in 2009, from a peak of 30 percent in late 2008. Hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has pursued populist economic policies since he was first elected in 2005, handing out cash and loans to assuage local demands, while slowing economic reforms and privatisation begun by his predecessors. "Privatisation is still on the agenda, but official foot-dragging continues to ensure almost total state control over the largest commercial enterprises," said Mohammed Shakeel, an Iran economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. Ahmadinejad boasted in May that the economy was growing at 5 to 6 percent, far higher than IMF estimates of 1.5 percent real Gross Domestic Product growth in 2009 and 2.2 percent in 2010. Some economists suggest even the IMF figure is rosy. "We estimate that real GDP growth will have weakened in 2009/10 to just 0.5 percent, owing to the drop in oil earnings over the year, which will have affected the rate of private consumption and investment growth," said Shakeel. He said real GDP was forecast to pick up steadily to 2.9 percent in the Iranian year to March 2011, attributing this to higher oil prices and a small rise in oil output. Labour supply, meanwhile, is growing about 4 percent a year, according to the World Bank. Ahmadinejad's critics accuse him of squandering windfall oil revenue Iran earned when crude prices soared in the first half of 2008, leaving Iran more vulnerable to any new U.N. sanctions.

Econ Right in the Middle

The Iranian economy has gone through decline, a long period of recovery is ahead.

Khabar 3/3 (“Iran’s Economy Deeply Hit By the World Crisis”, March 3, 2010, Khabar Online, http://www.khabaronline.ir/news-47060.aspx)


ENGLISH > Economy - The economic affairs speaker of the Iranian government defended the performance of the administration, claiming that unlike many countries the rate of Iran's economic growth has not reduced. However the figures show that the Islamic Republic's economy has deeply hit by the world crisis. Shamseddin Hosseini who is also the Minister of Economic Affairs and Finance argued that in economic terms the government has achieved its goals, although the surveys issued by International Monetary Fund (IMF) refute the allegation. Based on the latest figures published by IMF (which are referred by the Iranian administration and even government backed media as a reliable source) the rate of drop in Iran's economic growth is equal to countries like Britain and the United Arab Emirates. Even the same amount is higher than that of the United States, the main victim of the crisis which struck the international economy. The same source reveals that the economic growth rate of the Islamic Republic in 2009 when the global economy crimsis reached a peak, has reduced by 6.3 percent compared to 2007. Notably, at that time the oil price soared to a new height Earlier, on the sidelines of the recent Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) ministerial meeting held Wednesday in Tehran, Hosseini had said: "If we consider the history of the late financial crisis which shook the world, it can be realized that the least damages inflicted on the country for transactions in global stock markets." So if according to the argument made by the government speaker, the separation of the Iran's capital market from the world was the main reason for its invulnerability to the blows of the crisis, we should have not witness such a downward trend, unless we realize that the world crisis has simply contributed to the inept practice of the government in handling the domestic economy. But as the world is passing through the crisis, the condition of Iran economy which as claimed by the government speaker has experienced the least damage, is actually much critical than the major global victims. The rate of growth predicted for Iranian economy in 2009-10 is simply 0.7 percent, the lowest among the eight observed countries. It discloses that Iranian economy has gone through a decline in growth rate in line with the world crisis and has a long period of convalescence ahead. However the other interesting point made in this brief comparison is the curve of changes in the Islamic Republic's economy in 2007-2010 which among the eight observed countries is mostly corresponds to that of China. Concerning the increasingly massive trade relations between the two countries, the issue regardless of its positive or negative outcomes deserves a study by the experts.




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