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South Korean economy falling—currency shows



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South Korean economy falling—currency shows


Teso 7/19 (Yumi—reporter for Bloomberg Businessweek, “Asian Currencies Fall on Concern U.S. Slowdown May Hurt Exports,” 7/19/10, http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-07-19/asian-currencies-fall-on-concern-u-s-slowdown-may-hurt-exports.html)

July 19 (Bloomberg) -- Asian currencies dropped, led by South Korea’s won and Malaysia’s ringgit, as mounting signs the U.S. economic recovery is losing traction worsens the outlook for regional exports and deters investment in riskier assets. The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index of shares slumped the most in two weeks after a private report showed confidence among American consumers dropped to an 11-month low in July. Thailand will tomorrow report the slowest growth in overseas sales since February and Taiwan is expected to announce the smallest increase in export orders since October, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. “We’ve seen a pretty substantial increase in global risk aversion,” said Dariusz Kowalczyk, Hong Kong-based senior economist at Credit Agricole CIB. “That came particularly from the U.S., which led investors to pare long positions in risk assets.” The won slumped 1 percent to close at 1,215.65 per dollar in Seoul, the biggest decline this month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The ringgit weakened for a third day, sliding 0.6 percent to 3.2270 as of 5 p.m. in Kuala Lumpur. India’s rupee fell 0.6 percent to 47.035 and China’s yuan slipped 0.04 percent to 6.7779.



South Korean economy shaky—won is “Asia’s worst performance”


Yoon 7/19 (Frances—reporter for Bloomberg Businessweek, Korean Won Falls as U.S. Slowdown May Hurt Exports; Bonds Rise,” 7/19/10, http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-07-19/korean-won-falls-as-u-s-slowdown-may-hurt-exports-bonds-rise.html)

July 19 (Bloomberg) -- South Korea’s won fell the most this month on concern a faltering recovery in the U.S., the world’s biggest economy, will hurt exports and curb demand for emerging- market assets. Currencies retreated across Asia’s developing nations after a U.S. report showed consumer confidence dropped to an 11-month low in July. Overseas investors sold more Korean shares than they bought for the first time in eight days, dragging the Kospi index to a one-week low. China’s trade growth will slow in the second half of 2010, a government agency forecast. “We’ve seen a pretty substantial increase in global risk aversion,” said Dariusz Kowalczyk, Hong Kong-based senior economist at Credit Agricole CIB. “That came particularly from the U.S., which led investors to pare long positions in risk assets.” The won fell 1.02 percent to 1,215.65 per dollar as of the 3 p.m. close in Seoul, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency has dropped 7.6 percent in the past three months, Asia’s worst performance. China’s import growth will slow to 19.3 percent in the July-to-December period and export gains will moderate to 16.3 percent, the China securities Journal said today, citing a report by the State Information Center. Imports climbed 52.7 percent in the first half of 2010 and exports rose 35.2 percent, customs bureau data show.



Low – OECD

OECD shows South Korean economy slowing down


Yonhap News 7/14 (“OECD Data Signals Slowing Pace of Korea's H2 Economic Growth,” 7/14/10, http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/business/2010/07/14/34/0501000000AEN20100714001800320F.HTML)
SEOUL, July 14 (Yonhap) -- The South Korean economy is likely to see its growth pace slow down during the second half of the year, data compiled by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) showed Wednesday.    The Paris-based OECD's composite leading indicator for the world's 15th-largest economy stood at 103.4 in May, compared with 103.8 in April. The May figure marks the sixth consecutive monthly deceleration, signaling a slowing pace in the economy for the second half of the year.    The indicator is designed to provide early signs of turning points between expansions and slowdowns of economic activity over the next six months.    According to the data, the growth cycle of the South Korean economy peaked in November 2009, with the indicator standing at 105.1.


**Japan**




High – general

Japan’s economy resilient—multiple signs show


Nohara and Ikeda 7/2 (Yoshiaki and Yumi—Bloombery Businessweek correspondents, “Japan Yields May Surge Amid ‘Bubble Signs,’ Nikko Cordial Says,” 7/2/10, http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-07-01/japan-yields-may-surge-amid-bubble-signs-nikko-cordial-says.html)
July 2 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s 10-year bond yields, mired in the past week at the lowest levels in seven years, may surge to 1.75 percent by year-end as nation’s economic recovery proves resilient, according to Nikko Cordial Securities Inc. Benchmark 10-year yields fell 31 basis points in the quarter ended in June, the most since the last quarter of 2008, while sentiment among Japan’s largest manufacturers advanced to a two-year high. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. “I’m seeing bubble signs increasingly,” Shinji Nomura, chief debt strategist in Tokyo at Nikko Cordial, a unit of Japan’s third-largest banking group said yesterday. “The economy continues to recover gradually, but yields have dropped as if taking into account a new recession. That’s widened a gap between yields and the economic outlook.” The Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan index, released yesterday, gained 15 points to plus 1 in the second quarter. That meant optimists outnumbered pessimists for the first time in two years. “Judging from the Tankan’s results, I see no need for the BOJ to move toward additional easing,” Nomura said. Following calls to act from the government the Bank of Japan in December unveiled a credit program that it doubled to 20 trillion yen ($228 billion) in March. Last month, Governor Masaaki Shirakawa and his policy board introduced a 3 trillion yen program aimed at encouraging lending to businesses. The central bank has held its benchmark interest rate at 0.1 percent since December 2008. Ten-year yields touched 1.055 percent yesterday, the lowest since August 2003. Japan’s government bonds handed investors a return of 2.2 percent between January and June, the best first half since 2001, according to an index compiled by Merrill Lynch & Co.




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