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GOP Win – Obama declining Dems lose majority – Obama approval rating



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GOP Win – Obama declining

Dems lose majority – Obama approval rating

Lamb 7/19/10 ( Christina, theaustralian.com, writer for Sunday Times, Sunday Telegraph, and Financial Times, New York Times, New Statesman, Spectator, Time magazine and Conde Nast Traveller. No escape from heat for holidaying Barack Obama, http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/no-escape-from-heat-for-holidaying-barack-obama/story-e6frg6so-1225893622227)

Along with healthcare - the biggest social reform in decades - and his $US787 billion ($905bn) economic stimulus, this makes an astonishing legislative hat-trick. Yet while Obama is one of the most successful presidents in terms of passing legislation, his popularity has sunk to a new low. A CBS/New York Times poll last week gave him an approval rating of just 44 per cent. Under fire from the Left, independents are abandoning him and the Right is already celebrating his imminent downfall. Even his own party seems to view him as an electoral liability. Many Democratic candidates for the mid-term elections are ignoring his achievements and campaigning on local issues. Up to 60 Democratic house seats are in jeopardy and the Republicans need to gain 39 to take control. "There is a wave out there and, for Democrats, the House (of Representatives) is, at best, teetering on the edge," said political analyst Charlie Cook.




Republicans will take back Congress – White house press secretary Gibbs agrees

Lamb 7/19/10 ( Christina, theaustralian.com, writer for Sunday Times, Sunday Telegraph, and Financial Times, New York Times, New Statesman, Spectator, Time magazine and Conde Nast Traveller. No escape from heat for holidaying Barack Obama,

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/no-escape-from-heat-for-holidaying-barack-obama/story-e6frg6so-1225893622227)

His(Obama’s) own press secretary has admitted Democrats might lose control of congress in the mid-term elections in November. Chris van Hollen, chairman of the Democrats' congressional campaign committee, insists that Obama is an asset to the party. "The reason a lot of candidates are focused on local issues is they want to be able to show the impact of his reforms in the community," he said. His task was not helped when White House press secretary Robert Gibbs told a talk show that his party could lose control of congress. "There's no doubt that there are enough seats in play that could cause Republicans to gain control," he said. "What Gibbs was expressing was truthful, but from the political viewpoint (it) was devastating," said political blogger Steve Clemons. "What kind of message does it send out to the people who have been helping him get his legislation through at their cost?"



Dems will lose – voters will cast opposition

Blanton , 7/16/10 – Director for Fox News (Dana, July 16, “Fox News Poll: Obama a Hindrance on Fall Elections”, http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/07/16/fox-news-poll-obama-hindrance-fall-elections/print)
Most voters say that when they pull the lever this November, they will be sending a message to the White House — and voters see Republicans as better at handling key issues like the economy, terrorism and immigrationaccording to a Fox News poll. Voters will go to the polls this November with control of Congress at stake. Yet most voters say when they pull that lever, they will be sending a message to the White House, according to a Fox News poll. The poll, released Friday, finds that 41 percent of voters will cast their ballots to register opposition to President Obama's policies. A third (33 percent) will vote to express their support. The policies of the administration will not be a factor for 20 percent of voters. Most Republicans72 percentdescribe their midterm vote as expressing opposition to the Obama administration. That's a bit higher than the 64 percent of Democrats who say their vote will express support. One in 10 Democrats will vote to express opposition to the president (11 percent). Independents are nearly 20 percentage points more likely to say their vote will express opposition (41 percent) rather than support (23 percent) for Obama policies. Thirty-three percent of independents say the administration won't influence their vote. If the election were held today, 41 percent of voters would back the Republican candidate in their congressional district and 37 percent would vote for the Democratic candidate. That's little changed from two weeks ago when the vote favored the Republican candidate by 42-40 percent (June 29-30).


GOP Win – Voter enthusiasm




GOP will win majority – more independent voters support


McCormick and Dodge, 7/15/10 – reporters for Bloomberg (John McCormick, Catherine DodgeJuly 15, “Bloomberg National Poll Shows Obama at Risk”, http://www.businessweek.com/print/magazine/content/10_30/b4188032411856.htm)
The President's overall approval is at 52 percent, roughly what it has been since December 2009. Yet majorities or pluralities disapprove of his handling of the economy, health care, the budget deficit, the Afghanistan war, the overhaul of financial regulations, and BP's (BP) leaking oil well in the Gulf of Mexico. Obama's rating is higher than President Bill Clinton's 42 percent in July 1994 and lower than President George W. Bush's 73 percent in July 2002, according to Gallup data. Almost two-thirds say they feel the nation is headed in the wrong direction, an even more sour assessment than in March, when 58 percent felt that way. Similarly, two-thirds of independent voters are pessimistic, while just 56 percent of Democrats offer a vote of confidence. After a year of economic growth, 71 percent say the economy is still in recession. "They have been hammered by the economy, and there is a disconnect between the lives Americans are living and Washington," says J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., a Des Moines firm that conducted the nationwide survey. "They seem to have lost hope." For Democrats, the survey may portend significant losses in November, when voters will determine which party controls the House and Senate. Given the anti-Washington mood, Republicans have the upper hand. Among independent voters often crucial to winning elections, GOP congressional candidates are preferred to Democrats, 44 percent to 32 percent. Among likely voters who view the election as exceptionally important—and provide the advantage that political consultants call the "intensity factor"—Republicans beat Democrats 56 percent to 34 percent. A quarter of Americans, including 30 percent of Republicans and 21 percent of Democrats, say the nation would have been better off had Hillary Clinton been elected President. Unemployment is easily the top issue, with 41 percent saying it is the most important matter facing the nation. "It downgrades our people if they don't have anything to do," says respondent Jane Phillips, an 80-year-old retired schoolteacher from Springfield, Ohio. After unemployment, the most critical issues were the federal deficit and government spending, followed by the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. The gap between Republicans and Democrats is stark when it comes to the budget. Among Republicans, 44 percent rank it as the most important issue, compared with 7 percent of Democrats.

GOP will win majority – history proves party in power will lose

Voice of America, 7/14/10 (Jim Malone – VOA national correspondent, July 14, “US Democrats Bracing For Election Setbacks”, http://www1.voanews.com/english/news/usa/US-Democrats-Bracing-For-Election-Setbacks-98441014.html)
In U.S. politics, President Barack Obama's public approval ratings are hitting new lows and a growing number of analysts now believe opposition Republicans have an excellent chance of winning back control of at least one chamber of Congress in midterm elections in November. The news for President Obama seems to be getting grimmer. The latest ABC News/Washington Post poll found that nearly 60 percent of those surveyed lack faith in the president to make the right decisions for the country, and that only 43 percent approve of his handling of the economy. Both figures are new lows for that poll. The negative poll ratings have been building for some time, according to Karlyn Bowman. Bowman monitors public opinion at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. "Pew [poll] noted last week that more people think Obama is having an effect on the economy than felt that way a year ago," said Karlyn Bowman. "The bad news is that more people think he is making it worse rather than better." The president's overall approval rating is at or just under 50 percent in most recent polls, and that could spell trouble for Democrats trying to hold onto their majorities in Congress in the November midterm elections. Poor presidential approval ratings usually mean losses for the president's party in midterm congressional elections. In addition, the Democrats are fighting history. With very few exceptions, the party that controls the White House loses congressional seats in a new president's first midterm election.


GOP will win – independents and enthusiasm

Voice of America, 7/14/10 (Jim Malone - VOA national correspondent, July 14, “US Democrats Bracing For Election Setbacks”, http://www1.voanews.com/english/news/usa/US-Democrats-Bracing-For-Election-Setbacks-98441014.html)
Republicans need to win 39 additional seats in the 435-member House of Representatives to win control of that body, and would need to gain ten seats in the Senate to gain a majority in that chamber. Many political analysts now see a Republican wave building for November, fueled in part by conservative grass roots activists who support the so-called Tea Party movement. Even presidential spokesman Robert Gibbs recently acknowledged that there are enough competitive House races this year that would allow the Republicans to win a majority in November. Analyst Charlie Cook says that he believes Republicans will win enough seats to take back control of the House of Representatives, in part because Republicans seem more committed to voting this year than Democrats. "They are not enthusiastic," said Charlie Cook. "They are not energized. They are very lethargic. At the same time Republicans and conservatives are really motivated, really energized and they look likely to turn out in unusually large numbers. So there is a huge gap in terms of intensity and likelihood of voting and that is important in these midterm elections where the [voter] turnout is usually about a third less than in presidential years." Cook also believes that many of the independent voters who helped elect Barack Obama president in 2008 and who supported the Democratic takeover of Congress in 2006 have now shifted their allegiance to the Republicans. "This is a group that voted for Democrats for Congress by an 18 point margin in 2006," he said. "They voted for President Obama by an eight point margin in 2008, and in the Gallup Poll over the last three months they have been giving Republicans an average of a 12-point lead in the contest for Congress."





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