National Intelligence Estimates As explained in the



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National Intelligence Estimates

As explained in the Foreign Relations of the United States series, “The National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) is a series of high-level interdepartmental reports first published in the fall of 1950 by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). Each Estimate was intended to be the most authoritative interpretation and appraisal of a situation available to policy makers and to present the coordinated expression of the best intelligence opinion from among several departments and agencies. The priorities and frames of reference for a proposed Estimate were set by the Intelligence Advisory Committee (IACO). This Committee was composed of the Director of Central Intelligence, who served as Chairman; the Special Assistant for Intelligence to the Secretary of State; and the Chiefs of Intelligence of the Army, Navy, Air Force, Joint Chiefs of Staff, Atomic Energy Commission, and Federal Bureau of Investigation. The organizations represented on the IAC drafted sections of an Estimate in accordance with their respective fields of responsibility; the Department of State provided all political and some economic sections. An integrated draft paper was discussed and revised by interdepartmental working groups under the coordination of the CIA's Office of National Estimates, then submitted to the IAC for final revision and approval. Provision was made for the notation of dissent where unanimity did not exist. Immediately upon approval, a National Intelligence Estimate was published by the CIA and forwarded to the President, the appropriate officers of Cabinet level, and the National Security Council.”



The Foreign Relations of the United States series is available in paper copy in the library or online at http://digicoll.library.wisc.edu/FRUS/ or the Department of State http://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments . Below is a sample of some National Intelligence Estimates printed in the series:

Year

Country or Place

Title of NIE or SNIE

Problem

FRUS citation

1950

Soviet Union

Soviet Capabilities and Intentions

To estimate Soviet capabilities and intentions with particular reference to the date at which the USSR might be prepared to engage in a general war

1950, Vol. I
National security affairs; foreign economic policy

1950

Indochina

Indochina: Current Situation and Probable Developments




1950, Vol. VI
East Asia and the Pacific

1950

Korea

Chinese Communist Intervention in Korea

To estimate the scale and purpose of Chinese Communist intervention in North Korea and Chinese Communist capabilities land intentions.

1950, Vol. VII
Korea

1950

Korea

Chinese Communist Intervention in Korea

To re-estimate the scale and purpose of Chinese Communist intervention in North Korea

1950, Vol. VII
Korea

1950

Korea

Consequences of the Early Employment of Chinese Nationalist Forces in Korea




1950, Vol. VII
Korea

1951

Soviet Bloc

Vulnerability of the Soviet Bloc to Economic Warfare




1951, Vol. I
National security affairs; foreign economic policy

1951

Soviet Bloc

Vulnerability of the Soviet Bloc to Economic Warfare

To estimate the vulnerability of the Soviet Bloc to economic warfare

1951, Vol. IV
Europe: political and economic developments

1951

Albania

The Current Situation in Albania with Particular Reference to Greek, Yugoslav and Italian Interests

To assess the strategic importance of Albania; to examine the stability of the existing regime; and to analyze Greek, Italian and Yugoslav interests in Albania.

1951, Vol. IV
Europe: political and economic developments

1951

USSR

Probably Soviet Courses of Action to mid-1952

To estimate probable Soviet courses of action to mid-1952 with particular reference to the probability of direct hostilities between the US and the USSR.

1951, Vol. IV

Europe: political and economic developments (in two parts)

1951

Yugoslavia

Probability of an Invasion of Yugoslavia in 1951

To assess the capabilities and intentions of the USSR and its European Satellites with respect to action against Yugoslavia during 1951

1951, Vol. IV

Europe: political and economic developments (in two parts)

1951

The Near and Middle East

The Importance of Iranian and Middle East Oil to Western Europe Under Peacetime Conditions

To estimate the importance of (a) Iranian oil production, and (b) total Middle East oil production is denied to the Western Powers by means other than war

1951, Vol. V

The Near East and Africa

1951

Turkey

Turkey’s Position in the East-West Struggle

To estimate the will and ability of Turkey to maintain its alignment with the West, and the courses of action Turkey might follow in the event of war.

1951, Vol. V

The Near East and Africa

1951

East Asia and the Pacific

Resistance of Thailand, Burma, and Malaya to Communist Pressures in the Event of a Communist Victory in Indochina

To assess the will and ability of Thailand, Burma, and Malaya to resist Communist political and military pressures or outright invasion in the event of a Communist victory in Indochina in 1951

1951, Vol. VI

Asia and the Pacific

1951

East Asia and the Pacific

The Strategic Importance of the Far East to the USSR

To assess the immediate and long range strategic importance of the Far East to the USSR

1951, Vol. VI

Asia and the Pacific

1951

Burma

Prospects for the Survival of a non-Communist Regime in Burma

To review the conclusions of NIE-36, “Prospects for the Survival of a non-Communist Regime in Burma,” dated 1 August 1951, with reference to the timing of possible control over part or all of Burma by the Burmese Communists.

1951, Vol. VI

Asia and the Pacific

1951

Indochina

Probable Developments in Indochina During the Remainder of 1951

To estimate the current situation and probably developments in Indochina during the remainder of 1951

1951, Vol. VI

Asia and the Pacific

1951

Japan

Feasibility of Japanese Rearmament in Association with the United States

To assess the feasibility of rearming Japan in association with the US and its allies, to capability of Japan for effecting such rearmament, and the Soviet reaction thereto

1951, Vol. VI

Asia and the Pacific

1951

South Asia

Probable Developments in the Kashmir Dispute to the end of 1951

To estimate probable developments in the Kashmir dispute during 1951, with particular reference to the possible use of armed force, and to indicate the consequences for US security interests of war between India and Pakistan

1951, Vol. VI

Asia and the Pacific

1951

India

India’s Position in the East-West Conflict

To estimate India’s present and probable future position in relation to the East-West conflict, short of the outbreak of global war

1951, Vol. VI

Asia and the Pacific

1951

China

Communist China

To estimate the stability of the Chinese Communist regime, its relation with the USSR and its probable course of action toward the non-Communist world

1951, Vol. VII

Korea and China

1951

China

Chinese Communist Capabilities and Intentions with Respect to Taiwan

To estimate Chinese Communist capabilities and intentions with respect to securing control over Taiwan in 1951

1951, Vol. VII

Korea and China

1951

China

Effects of Operations in Korea on the Internal Situation in Communist China

To estimate the effects of Korean operations upon the internal political, economic, and military situation of the Chinese Communist regime

1951, Vol. VII

Korea and China

1953

Policy of the United States with regard to economic defense

Probable Economic Effects of a Severance of East-West Trade

To estimate the importance of current East-West trade, and the capability of the Bloc and the West to adjust to its severance

1952-1954, Vol. I

General: economic and political matters

1954

Policy of the United States with regard to economic defense

Soviet Bloc Economic Warfare Capabilities and Courses of Action

To estimate Soviet Bloc capabilities in the field of economic warfare, the vulnerability of the Free World to Bloc economic warfare measures, and probable Bloc courses of action

1952-1954, Vol. I

General: economic and political matters

1954

Policy of the United States with regard to economic defense

Consequences of a Relaxation of Non-Communist Controls on Trade with the Soviet Bloc

To estimate the economic, strategic, and political consequences to the Soviet Bloc and the non-Communist world of a relaxation of non-Communist controls on trade with the European Soviet Bloc (USSR and European Satellites)


1952-1954, Vol. I

General: economic and political matters

1953

United States national security policy

Estimate of the World Situation Through 1955




1952-1954, Vol. II

National security affairs

1954

Central America

The Caribbean Republics

To estimate the situation and probable developments in the Caribbean republics (Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republics, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama), with the reference to their political stability and their relations with one another and with the United States

1952-1954, Vol. IV

The American republics

1952

Argentina

Probable Development in Argentina

To estimate the current situation and probable future developments in Argentina through 1953

1952-1954, Vol. IV

The American republics

1954

Argentina

Probable Development in Argentina

To assess the situation in Argentina and to estimate probable developments through 1955

1952-1954, Vol. IV

The American republics

1954

Bolivia

Probable Developments in Bolivia

To assess the current situation and probable developments in Bolivia, particularly the character and stability of the present regime

1952-1954, Vol. IV

The American republics

1953

Brazil

Probable Developments in Brazil

To estimate the current situation and probable developments in Brazil through 1955, with particular reference to the stability of government and the probable development of its foreign policy

1952-1954, Vol. IV

The American republics

1953

Chile

Probable Developments in Chile

To estimate the current situation and probable developments in Chile, with particular reference to the stability of the Ibanez government and the probable development of its foreign policy

1952-1954, Vol. IV

The American republics

1952

Guatemala

Present Political Situation in Guatemala and Possible Developments During 1952

To analyze the present political situation in Guatemala and possible developments during 1952

1952-1954, Vol. IV

The American republics

1953

Guatemala

Probable Developments in Guatemala

To estimate the current situation in Guatemala and probable future developments

1952-1954, Vol. IV

The American republics

1952

Venezuela

Probable Developments in Venezuela

To estimate the current situation and probable developments in Venezuela with particular reference to factors affecting the availability of strategic material

1952-1954, Vol. IV

The American republics

1953

France

Probable Short-Term Development in French Policy

To estimate probable French domestic developments and foreign policies over the next 18 months

1952-1954, Vol. VI

Western Europe and Canada

1952

USSR

Likelihood of the Deliberate Initiation of Full-Scale War by the USSR Against the US and its Western Allies Prior to the End of 1952

To estimate whether the USSR is likely deliberately to initiate general war, i.e., full-scale war against the US and its Western allies, prior to the end of 1952

1952-1954, Vol. VIII

Eastern Europe; Soviet Union; Eastern Mediterranean

1953

USSR

Soviet Bloc Capabilities Through 1957

To analyze the principal factors affecting Soviet Bloc capabilities and to estimate the probable development of those capabilities, through 1957

1952-1954, Vol. VIII

Eastern Europe; Soviet Union; Eastern Mediterranean

1954

USSR

Soviet Capabilities and Main Lines of Policy Through Mid-1959

To estimate Soviet capabilities and the main lines of Soviet strategic policy through mid-1959

1952-1954, Vol. VIII

Eastern Europe; Soviet Union; Eastern Mediterranean

1954

USSR

Soviet Capabilities and Probable Courses of Action Through mid-1959

To estimate Soviet capabilities and probable courses of action through mid-1959

1952-1954, Vol. VIII

Eastern Europe; Soviet Union; Eastern Mediterranean

1952

Yugoslavia

Probable Development in Yugoslavia and the Likelihood of Attack Upon Yugoslavia, through 1952

To estimate probable developments in Yugoslavia and the likelihood of attack upon Yugoslavia, through 1952

1952-1954, Vol. VIII

Eastern Europe; Soviet Union; Eastern Mediterranean

1953

Yugoslavia

Probable Development in Yugoslavia

To estimate (a) the current situation in Yugoslavia and probable future developments in Yugoslavia domestic and foreign policies, and (b) the effect of these developments upon the international position of Yugoslavia

1952-1954, Vol. VIII

Eastern Europe; Soviet Union; Eastern Mediterranean


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