Middle East Instability Aff



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Jimi & Andy Aff Middle East Instability

Middle East Instability Aff


Middle East Instability Aff 1

Position Explanation 2

No ME Stability 3

A2: Withdrawal Causes Instability 4

A2: U.S. Troops Solve Stability 5

A2: U.S. Troops Solve Stability 6

A2: Iraq Withdrawal => Instability 7

A2: Iraq Withdrawal => Instability 8

A2: ME War Escalates – General 9

A2: ME War Escalates – Russia 10

A2: ME War Escalates – Iraq 12

A2: ME War Escalates – China 13

A2: ME War Escalates – China 14

A2: ME War Escalates – Shunni/Shia 15

A2: Contain Iran 16



Position Explanation


Notes: This file answers contains answer to the middle east instability disadvantage. This file has some general uniqueness and link answers, which should be supplemented in any good 2ac with case specific link answers. The bigger focus of this file, however, is impact defense. You should select your impact defense cards based on reading the warrants in the Aff’s evidence which says conflict in the middle east will escalate.

No ME Stability


Mideast instability is inevitable now

Abdullah Al Shayji, Chairman of the Political Science Department, Kuwait University, 7-5-2010, “Middle East at crossroads of prosperity and instability,” http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/middle-east-at-crossroads-of-prosperity-and-instability-1.650123



The Middle East is witnessing major changes and shifts in the traditional status quo which is upsetting the power structure that has existed in the region for the last few decades. These upheavals have sparked fears that the region could descend into war and instability. The highly-charged atmosphere points to a chilling scenario of war sparked by sanctions against Iran over its nuclear programme or a military strike by Israel. Tel Aviv has been massing warplanes and military hardware in the Caucasus, in particular Azerbaijan and Georgia. The US also keeps reminding everyone that all options are on the table with regard to Iran. The complete stagnation of the Middle East peace process which has bedeviled the US and unmasked its limited influence over the hardline Likud-led Israeli government is a worry. Washington's failure to steer the Middle East towards a more stable path is appalling. The US knows only too well the centrality of the Israel-Palestine conflict and its impact on all other crises and issues in the region. Squandering opportunities and caving in to limited interests and domestic pressure with the US mid-term election looming next November is pushing and pulling the region towards the abyss. There is the threat of Israeli military action against Hezbollah at the height of the US mid-term elections when the Obama administration will be hard-pressed to rein in Tel Aviv. It is ironic that while the US is fully aware of the significance of a comprehensive and lasting solution to the Middle East conflict, it keeps failing to achieve that critical breakthrough.
Mideast instability is coming – Iraq withdrawal

Abdullah Al Shayji, Chairman of the Political Science Department, Kuwait University, 7-5-2010, “Middle East at crossroads of prosperity and instability,” http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/middle-east-at-crossroads-of-prosperity-and-instability-1.650123



Add to this the stalemated Iraqi political scene in a year when the US will start its long-awaited military withdrawal of its combat troops, a prelude to full military withdrawal by December 2011. Iraq's politicians, unfortunately, are posturing, horse-trading and jockeying for power and posts four months after the parliamentary election. With foreign powers, especially Iran, meddling in Iraqi affairs, the leading figure in the Iraqi National coalition and former Iraqi national security adviser Mowaffak Al Rubaie said that Iran is a major player in Iraq. In a revealing statement, he admitted that an Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards officer called Qasim Sulaimani is in charge of the Iraqi file and is calling the shots in Iraq. Meanwhile, political groups continue to lobby for power and posts to form the long overdue cabinet. The Iraqi political system continues to experience the pangs and pain of the transition to a normal state. The last failed state index put Iraq at number six out of 177 countries, a ranking Iraq has been holding on to for the past few years. Another survey, Mercer's 2010 Quality of Living Survey, which ranks 221 cities, with Vienna at the top, places Baghdad at the bottom of its list in terms of quality of life. Considering these ominous crises and challenges, along with the absence of any real breakthrough in any of the pressing issues, we are excused if we do not feel optimistic. We are at a critical crossroads in the region, we are even lucky if we could dodge any escalation or war.

A2: Withdrawal Causes Instability


U.S. disengagement causes EU fill in – that preserves stability

Leon T. Hadar, research fellow in foreign policy studies @ CATO, 8-20-2003, “Mending the U.S.-European Rift over the Middle East,” http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=1344



The long-term interests of the United States do not lie in dominating the Middle East and marginalizing the European role there. Instead, by taking steps to disengage from the Middle East, Washington could create incentives for the Europeans to adopt a posture in the region suitable for protecting and defending their legitimate interests there. A foreign policy that encourages greater engagement between Europe and the states of the Middle East could ultimately redound to the benefit of Europeans, Middle Easterners, and Americans alike.
U.S. withdrawal causes EU fill in

Leon T. Hadar, research fellow in foreign policy studies @ CATO, 8-20-2003, “Mending the U.S.-European Rift over the Middle East,” http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=1344

Indeed, the time has come for Washington to consider a long-term policy ofconstructive disengagement” from the Middle East and to encourage the Europeans to take upon themselves the responsibility of securing their interests in the region. After all, the main rationale for military intervention in the Middle East during the Cold War was the need to help secure the strategic and economic interests of Western Europe (and Japan) as part of a strategy to contain the global threat of the Soviet Union. As noted above, America’s expanding presence in the Middle East came in response to the inability of the Europeans, with their eroding economic base and military power in the aftermath of World War II, to protect their interests in the region. Washington assumed the diplomatic, military, and financial burden almost entirely on its own because European (and Japanese) interests were deemed compatible with, if not identical to, American interests.
That preserves stability

Leon T. Hadar, research fellow in foreign policy studies @ CATO, 8-20-2003, “Mending the U.S.-European Rift over the Middle East,” http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=1344



By adopting a strategy of constructive engagement in the Middle East, the EU could try, through the use of both diplomatic and economic resources, to achieve the kind of goals that the Bush administration is trying to advance through the use of its military power: challenging the status quo in the Middle East while advancing the cause of peace and political and economic reform.


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