C.E.O- Warren Lance
A. My focus when formulating policies is my country’s economy. I want to do what I can to increase our overall wealth as a nation as well as increasing the wealth of the individual citizen. I feel that if poverty is lowered there is less chance for social unrest, which is a large concern to me because of a large dissident population. The graph shows that focusing on our markets gives us the greatest opportunity to reaching the goal of a wealthy nation.
If we become a wealthy nation our security will be much greater. There would be less inner turmoil and fewer outside forces that have the ability to harm us. Our status in the world would also greatly
increase, giving us increased bargaining positions when it came to
international trade and foreign policy. We would like to eventually be
seen as an important trade partner. This can happen due partially to
our energy exports, specifically oil and coal. We are one of the
largest oil producing nations in Asia and the Pacific and the largest
producer of thermal use coal (Dept. of State website). We would like to see increased exportation of these resources. To increase the
exportation of oil, we need to encourage foreign investment and
exploration. We also need to decrease domestic oil usage.
B. First of all, the demands placed upon me would be mostly economically based. After the Asian financial crisis of 1997 caused our economy to drop, we need to do everything we can to get ourselves to pre-1997 levels and even past them (Dept. of State website). Also, years of political unrest and corruption has led to much investor distrust creating a drop in foreign investment. We need to do what we can to build confidence with those foreign investors. Ways to do this is to enforce labor laws, increase worker’s rights, and encourage
unionization of the workers. Also increased protection of intellectual
property to promote confidence with high-technology investors. Domestic policies also need to be streamlined to speed up the investment procedures as well as make the whole process easier. We hope that these reforms will encourage foreign investment, especially from the U.S., Japan, and China. Indonesia is at peace with all of its neighbors and has no real threat in the region so its military policy is mostly focused on keeping internal peace. The military would like to change its role to a specialized external force which would mean an increase in already understaffed national police force (Dept. of State website). Some domestic policies will need to be created to encourage the growth of that force. To help increase the per capita income and the overall wealth of the nation, educational reforms will need to be made. School enrollment is at 92% but only about 44% of students attend junior high school or higher (Dept. State website). Getting this rate up and encouraging the attendance of secondary educational facilities is vital to our economic growth. This would allow for specialized workers in highly technological world and increase industrial and technological development domestically. I believe this will encourage foreign investment which, as stated earlier, would be greatly beneficial to us.
I am only interested in policies that will help this country grow
economically and structurally. I would like to do everything I can to
promote the financial well-being of this nation. That is the first step
to a rich and full society and a society that is content with itself.
There has been much ethnic unrest, especially between the Pribumis (the Indonesian natives) and the Chinese-Indonesian who are looked upon as being as controlling the nation because of their greater wealth. The riots in Jakarta in 1997 and 1998 are examples of
this.(www.wikipedia.com) I hope that with the aid of foreign countries
that the wealth of this nation can grow.
C. We, the government of Indonesia, are announcing the pursuit of a more aggressive economic policy. After the economic crisis of the late 1990’s that was felt by all of Asia, we feel that we need to pursue the goals of increasing foreign investment, increased exportation of
natural resources, and decreasing waste and instability.
To increase foreign investment we need to ensure the investors that Indonesia is again a safe place to invest. We need to enforce labor
laws, eliminate corruption, and streamline domestic policies so that
investment procedures are more organized and easier to complete. We
also plan to increase investing by promoting more oil development and
exploration, as well as natural gas, coal, and other natural resources.
We hope that nations take advantage of this opportunity. This would
also allow us to increase our natural resource exports. Lately we have
been a net importer of oil and we would like to see get turned around.
Along with an increase in national wealth, we would also like to see
an increase in per capita income. To do this we will follow a course of
action to promote increased attendance in schools, especially
post-secondary education. With more skilled workers and a better
educated society we hope to increase our overall productivity, both for
the nation and the individual. This would also give us a chance to
develop more technologically advanced industries. This program would
rely on our planned economic increase in the long run and in the short
term on foreign aid and planning assistance.
We will also continue to pursue our current foreign policy of staying out of conflicts between major nations and focusing mainly on local relationships. We are moving further away from the Anti-West and Anti-American stance and policies of previous administrations. We will continue our participation in the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations and the Non-Aligned Movement. We hope that this does not hinder our relations with countries that may seek our help in a military
conflict. We believe in creating and sustaining peace and will work
with other nations towards a peaceful conclusion of their altercation.
We hope other nations will stand by us in this and help us create a
more peaceful global community.
CIO- Alyssa Cho
Aid (Foreign) net- Billion $
Threat (received) Index as Probability (Percent) of Militarized Dispute Across all Originators
State Failure Through Internal War (Event Occurrence)
The trend of foreign aid into Indonesia is significant as an indicator of the reliance of Indonesia on other countries for assistance, specifically focusing on the aid for security purposes. The flow of aid into Indonesia over the next twenty years shows the forecasted increase in reliance on other countries for security assistance.
According to Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, this reliance on foreign assistance proposes a possible threat to both Indonesia and the countries on which Indonesia relies upon. It creates a possible threat to the security of the nation while also threatening the status of the country. Since one of my visions for Indonesia as the CIO is to lessen our reliance on foreign aid, this trend proposes a threat to the desired status of our country on an international level.
A goal is to lessen the reliance on foreign aid to maintain security in our nation, yet the trends shown in the first graph of the predicted foreign aid for security show an increase over the next twenty years. Also, according to the trends of the first graph, Indonesia will become fairly reliant on the foreign aid predicted for security. Therefore a high demand for support will be required from other countries.
The second and third graphs show a decrease in both the threat to security by militarized dispute across originators and the state failure of security through internal war. These trends demonstrate the emphasis of the policy on the difference values of power and respect. The internal peace of the nation will increase according to the trends, meaning that a respect both nationally and internationally will develop and increase over the next twenty years.
The history of Indonesia speaks to the importance of stability in the formation of policies for this simulation. Since their declaration of independence on August 15, 1945 and the recognition of their independence by the Netherlands on December 27, 1945, Indonesia has experienced a rough transition from authoritarianism to democracy (http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/id.html). Following the declaration of independence in 1945, Indonesia experienced internal unrest due to the power transition, including the violent acts by the PKI (Indonesian Communist Party) from 1965-1966 (http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2748.htm). The violent opposition to the democracy by the PKI led to the death of a range of 160,000 to 500,000 people, mainly in Bali and Java (http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2748.htm).
The animosity within the nation, the geographical separation of the islands of the archipelago and the religious and cultural diversity has led to a difficult transition to a unified democratic nation in Indonesia. These many differences made creating a unified nation difficult because of the conflicting views and opinions of the Indonesian people. There has also been a discussion of corruption within the government as a whole and through individual leaders (http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2748.htm). In addition to the difficulty in unification due to individual differences, there has also been evidence of abuse of human rights by the Indonesian National Police (http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/id.html).
With an overview of the history of Indonesia’s development as a democratic nation, I expect that I will be under heavy demands to establish and maintain internal peace within Indonesia. I also expect that the violations of human rights by the police force must be dealt with as well.
According to Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, security is the second most important step after survival. Recognizing the importance of security, I realize that my role in the decision-making process for Indonesia is vital. I also recognize that there will be a heavy responsibility from my own country to maintain internal peace.
By looking at the GDA model I see that the goals of attaining internal peace will have the pressures (drift) of the separation of cultural groups within the nation as well as the facts standing that there has been unrest in the nation in the past.
In general, my policy will focus on establishing internal peace through the utilization of security funds. As the graphs mentioned above shows, Indonesia’s reliance on foreign aid for security is increasing, I would like to have those numbers not increase at the percentage that they are in the trends mentioned above. Currently, defense spending in the national budget is 1.8% of the GDP, supplemented by the privatized support from military businesses and foundations (http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2748.htm). I plan on utilizing this budget and the other support to maximize internal security while also minimizing the abuse and corruption by the Indonesian National Police.
C) Under the current conditions of the nation of Indonesia, I plan to continue the progress of the nation towards a successful democracy. In order to accomplish this, I would like to focus on the corruption of the bureaucracy of Indonesia. In order to gain internal peace, this issue must be addressed. The current way in which this nation works is one based out of fear and corruption between the people of Indonesia and the bureaucracy (Nugroho, 215). I plan to increase internal security through the support and improvement of internal peace while eliminating the corruption within the National Police and other political leaders and organizations.
While many think that internal peace is an unachievable goal, I will prove otherwise. Through the cooperation of the government officials, the people of the various islands and the people of Indonesia as a whole, we can accomplish peace and improve the moral of our country.
Through the elimination of the internal corruption as well as the internal threats of terrorism and rebellion we can achieve a united nation. Through the unification of our nation through safety, we will become a stronger state with similar goals and aspirations making our success inevitable.
The source of funding for security needs to be careful investigated to ensure that corruption is minimized. The private contributions given to the security funding needs careful investigation as well.
The corruption of Indonesia’s governmental procedures, specifically in the security measures shows through one major example. After the attack on Bali in 2002 as well as a result of 9/11, the Indonesian National Intelligence Agency proposed a Anti-Terrorism Regulation which was quickly signed without opposition (Nugroho, 222). The regulation gives officials the right to oust any possible threat from the country, which can easily be seen as an opportunity for corruption amongst government officials.
I feel that in addition the possible corruption arising from this regulation, that many officials abuse not only this regulation, but other human rights as well. Nugroho points out other ways in which the government takes their rights to a level of abuse and corruption. While security is a vital part of success for this nation of Indonesia, I feel that the corruption of the bureaucracy should be minimized in order to increase nationality and public support of the nation as well as individual governmental authorities. Rather than out of fear, citizens should support the government out of similar goals and aspirations for the nation as a whole.
By creating a more moral bureaucracy that doesn’t abuse the human rights of their citizens, we can build a way to a safer nation internally while developing our country on an international level. By creating national unity through the establishment of security we can fulfill the potential of Indonesia.
Nugroho, Bimo. (2003). National Security and Open Government in Indonesia. Syracuse, NY: 2003.
CBO- Justin Muraoka
In analyzing the trends of the two graphs, it is evident that production in agriculture has risen over the past years and will possible continue to rise over time. You can also see that imports in agriculture have decreased probably due to more production in the country and maybe due to other factors such as cheaper prices compared to other countries. These trends do not appear to oppose any threat but rather an opportunity for Indonesia to develop its exports. Based on these trends, this provides Indonesia with the opportunity to possible follow this trend to expand and specialize in the production of agriculture, therefore giving Indonesia another possible competitive advantage in foreign exchange and trade. By following this drift (trend) and increasing production in agriculture, this will also allow us to obtain one of our group’s goals in this simulation which is to reduce the unemployment rate in Indonesia and boost its exports. Based on these assumptions, I would predict that demand from other countries would increase, therefore bringing more wealth to the country. By looking at these trends, my vision for my country is to expand development in agriculture to produce more jobs and increase exports instead of relying on imports so much. This vision and goals is something to consider when developing foreign policies with other countries.
This is important to keep in mind while developing policies due to the fact that Indonesia has lost one of its biggest export commodities (oil) because of the aging of these oil mines and the failure to upgrade equipment. Oil exports in Indonesia have dropped significantly and Indonesia is now a major importer of goods and oil rather than an exporter. This presents Indonesia with a loss in their most valuable source of exporting revenue. Using the trends in upward production of agriculture, it is possible to make Indonesia a major exporter again instead of importer.
Based on these trends and Indonesia’s economy today, I feel that the demands of my teammates would be to increase productivity in other sectors (ex. Agriculture) and possibly export these goods. Because of the medical aid needed in Indonesia, my group also wants to trade or import medical and health supplies with other strong countries such as U.S. and Japan. According to CNN.com, a lady died on February 21, 2006 due to the bird flu. This bird flu has spread and killed millions of birds in Europe, the Middle East and Africa and has also infected some humans as well. Because of this, Medical supplies might be highly demanded from other countries just incase the spread of this bird flu mutates enough to cause a widespread of infection among humans. Demands from other countries in terms of oil exporting might still be high. Although oil exporting has been reduced significantly, and because Indonesia is one of the few countries who has the resources of oil, our country has somewhat power over other countries. Due to this power of oil, we might be willing to meet a few countries demands if trade agreements can be made in return for other needed commodities. This power in oil, although limited, can also be dangerous in terms of terrorist acts. Something else that might be of great demand to other countries could be rubber. Because Indonesia is one of the world’s major rubber producers, this could help Indonesia to use rubber and agriculture to boosts its exporting industry back up and possibly increase further growth in other countries.
By looking at these drifts (trends), I would expect countries to respond to this in a positive way. These major exports such as rubber, possibly oil, and hopefully agriculture should have a positive affect on other countries. These are all major exports and by focusing on these exports, this will produce further jobs thus decreasing unemployment in Indonesia. Counties that we are primarily focused on exporting to as well as importing are Japan and U.S. These countries have been the two of Indonesia’s top trading countries in the past and we hope to continue this trend being that they are considerably two of the top countries.
Indonesia growth in these sectors will solely rely on other countries demands in products that Indonesia specializes in to export. However, competitive prices in other countries for the same goods might have an affect on rebuilding Indonesia’s exports. Another factor that could have an affect might be government regulations and barriers to entry in new countries. Overcoming these factors could benefit Indonesia to becoming a more productive country, reduce un-employment, increase export revenues, and produce maximum efficiency by producing goods their good at and importing production goods their weaker in.
C. Indonesia is considered to be the third largest populated country in the world that has a fairly high unemployment rate. Trade is expected to continue towards the developing trend of agriculture production so that we can increase exports to other countries which will produce more jobs and decrease the unemployment rate in Indonesia. We also expect to bargain with countries such as U.S. and Japan in trading our decreasing oil supply only if those countries are willing to trade for medical supplies which will be used to support the medical field in the country. Exporting of natural rubber to other countries is expected to continue to increase as well as other products such as clothing, machinery and transportation equipment, petroleum, and footwear. We expect to continue to export these products to the U.S. as well as other interested countries if they are willing to continue or start to allow us to import some goods such as construction equipment, machinery, aviation parts, chemicals, and maybe some agriculture.
Some of the consequences that we expect to have in regards to all this is a steady decrease in the unemployment rate, an increase in exporting and well as importing to increase total productivity, and developing good relations with foreign investors and traders.
One of the main demands we expect to see is the demand for oil. Because oil is a highly needed resource and because oil exports have been reduced greatly in Indonesia due to the aging of the oil mines and the failure to upgrade equipment, we expect the demand to further supply oil to other countries to be high. We also anticipate that their will be increased demand for agriculture which will help Indonesia to use agriculture as a new means of exporting to expand globally.
We expect to maintain and continue to receive high support from the U.S. especially in helping to support Indonesia with medical supplies and equipment to help fight off the many diseases. We also expect to reduce the reliance on importing good and focus more on exporting goods with the help of other countries willing to trade for agriculture that will be hopefully a big improvement in reducing the unemployment rate by increasing jobs in agriculture production.
We expect to be more politically stable and hope to maintain long term relationships with other nations. Therefore these long term relations can ensure reliability in trade and hopefully improve negotiation trading contracts as the years progress.
CTO- Jenna Fear
According to the U.S. Department of State website, Indonesia is the fourth most populated country in the world with 224 million people. This fact brought great interest to me so I looked up the population growth graph to the year 2010 and what I found was the complete opposite. According to the graph the population is expected to drastically decline to less than 75% in 2010. I think that this decline in growth would be a benefit to the country because as of now, more than 107 million people live on the island of Java alone, which is approximately the size of New York City (U.S. Department of State, 2). It is one of the most densely populated areas in the world. This many people in a single area can easily cause security concerns, environmental pollution as well as a target for terrorists. I think that if we spread out the population of Indonesia between all the different islands it would benefit not only the people, but give room for more development. I think that this is very important to consider when developing new policies with other countries.
After the 1997-98 financial crisis in Indonesia the countries gross domestic product growth rate slowly started rising to its estimated peak in 2004. According to my second graph which is the GDP growth rate, after the peak in 2004 it dropped to about 3.7% in 2005 and in 2006 slowly started rising again, but not yet as much as its peak in 2004 was. This trend in GDP growth is very unstable and may be a contributing factor in why some other countries are hesitant in developing in Indonesia. Correlating with Maslows hierarchy of needs, people create systems to fulfill their needs. In Indonesia’s case however, our goal is to be economically stable. With our GDP rate being really unstable and constantly changing, this is definitely a big concern for the status of our country and how we are viewed by investors throughout the world. According to Laswell’s welfare values, this fluctuation is not good for the well-being of our economy and we need to focus on stabilizing and raising the GDP overall growth rate. Laswell’s deference values such as Indonesia’s power and respect that we gain from other countries are unstable because of our economic instability.