Impact Defense African Instability



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US-EU Relations

Uniqueness

EU-US relations high now


USMEU 14 [United States Mission to the European Union, "US-EU Summit in Brussels", 3/26/14, useu.usmission.gov/useu_summit_brussels_032614.html] // SKY

President Obama was in Brussels on March 26, 2014, for the U.S.-EU Summit, a press conference with European Council President Herman Van Rompuy and European Commission President José Manuel Barroso, and a speech on transatlantic relations. The joint U.S.-EU summit statement reaffirmed the “strong partnership” between the European Union and the United States, and addressed a number of issues, most notably the crisis in Ukraine. In his speech at the Palais des Beaux Arts (BOZAR), the President discussed the history shared by the United States and Europe, and how best to preserve the values and ideals that are central to the relationship. “I come here today to insist that we must never take for granted the progress that has been won here in Europe and advanced around the world,” because the contest of ideas continues, President Obama said. “And that’s what’s at stake in Ukraine today.” The President also met NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen and senior Belgian officials and visited a World War I Flanders Field Cemetery.

No Impact

EU-US relations resilient


Dahodwala 14 [Sophia, "Partnering for Prosperity: The State of U.S.-EU Relations", American Security Project, 11/17/14, www.americansecurityproject.org/partnering-for-prosperity-the-state-of-u-s-eu-relations/] // SKY

In the wake of Russian aggression, ISIL, climate change, Ebola, trade negotiations, elections in the European Union and the United States, and new leadership in the European Commission, U.S.-EU cooperation comes at a time when partnership is more important than ever. ASP’s panel on The U.S.-EU Strategic Partnership featured a comprehensive and compelling discussion on the state of trade, energy and security between both entities. The speakers conversed regarding a variety of issues including the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), relations between the U.S. and EU, and provided insight on how this key global partnership can be strengthened. The discussion was spearheaded by the Deputy Assistant Secretary in the Bureau of Europe and Eurasian Affairs Julieta Valls Noyes, who began by emphasizing the importance of the U.S.-EU partnership. “Today we are carrying out words and policies rather than war. The U.S. and EU partnership is a peace project…the path to prosperity entails that we work together.” Owing to recent events, this new partnership is being tested. There is new leadership, a new parliament, and a newly-elected US Congress. Paul Hamill, ASP’s Director of Strategy and Communications, and the panel’s moderator, asked the speakers how the U.S. and EU should face Russia during such an intense diplomatic situation. In the face of Russian aggression. Valls Noyes said that the U.S. and EU are working together to support Ukraine. They have jointly imposed successive rounds of sanctions on Russia. Paul Adamson, editor-in-chief and founding publisher of E! Sharp, like Valls Noyes, endorsed the sanctions, commenting that the U.S. and EU have done a “good job on sanctions” and have “forced everyone to work together.” Both the U.S. and the EU recognize that “security is undergirded by prosperity,” highlighting the need to focus on energy security and trade. The TTIP, Ms. Valls Noyes said, “links the world’s two largest and most prosperous economies.” That the U.S. and EU are open for a resilient trade partnership like TTIP, underscores the depth of both entities’ commitment.


US-Russia War

No Impact

US Russia war won’t go nuclear – Ukraine Proves


Shukla, 5-15 – [Vikas Shukla, Reporter, value investor, and correspondent with ValueWalk, 5-15-2015, Russia-US Tension Over Ukraine Won’t Lead To Nuclear War, http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/05/russia-us-tension-nuclear-war/ ] Jeong

In February, Russia was rated among the most unfavorable countries by Americans in a Gallup poll. Tensions between the U.S. and Russia have escalated over the Ukraine crisis. The United States as accused Russia of backing separatists in eastern Ukraine. But there is no threat of a nuclear war between Moscow and Washington, says a senior U.S. State Department official. Neither Russia nor U.S. desire to use nukes In an interview with Russia’s Kommersant newspaper, Rose Gottemoeller, the Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security for the US State Department, said that the White House did not believe the Ukrainian conflict would trigger a nuclear crisis. Though the two countries have different opinions regarding the Ukraine crisis, neither Russia nor the U.S. desire to use nuclear weapons to back up their arguments. Gottemoeller told the Russian newspaper that the two countries have a "stable relationship" on nuclear issues. The State Department official added that the two countries have taken a series of steps over the past few decades to reduce their nuclear arsenal. Gottemoeller's statement comes as many other security experts have proclaimed that Russia and the U.S. are heading towards a nuclear war. Some experts spreading fears of a nuclear war Earlier this week, Dr Paul Craig Roberts, the former U.S. Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy, said that Russia and China will never accept the U.S. hegemony. Beijing and Moscow are coming closer to challenge the U.S. dominance. China and Russia are also conducting joint naval exercises in the Mediterranean Sea, right in the backyard of Western Europe. Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk has also expressed concern that the conflict may escalate into a full-fledged nuclear war. During his visit to France on Wednesday, Yatsenyuk said Ukraine and Russia were on the verge of a nuclear crisis. When asked whether the Ukraine crisis could trigger a nuclear war between the U.S. and Russia, Gottemoeller said it's not going to happen. She said the world war still far from a nuclear crisis.


No US-Russia War – Polls proves


Koplowitz, 1-29, - [Howard Koplowitz, Bachelor's degree in political science, 1-29-2015, US And Russia Going To War? Ukraine Crisis May Lead To Military Conflict, Mikhail Gorbachev Warns, Others Not So Sure, http://www.ibtimes.com/us-russia-going-war-ukraine-crisis-may-lead-military-conflict-mikhail-gorbachev-warns-1798992] Jeong
Tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine are tantamount to a “new Cold War” that has the possibility of escalating to a military conflict, former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev told the Russian Interfax News Agency Thursday. Gorbachev’s comments were not in line with Russian scholars in the United States, a large majority of whom say war between the U.S. and Moscow is unlikely in the next 10 years. "I can no longer say that this 'cold war' will not lead to a 'hot war.' I fear that they could risk it," Gorbachev told Interfax, according to the Associated Press. He said Western nations supporting Ukraine “dragged” Russia into a new cold war. The crisis in Ukraine boiled over when Russia annexed Crimea last year. Kiev accused Moscow of supporting pro-Russia separatists in eastern Ukraine that have been battling the Ukrainian military for control of key cities and sites. Meanwhile, Russia accuses the West of supporting Ukraine’s effort to take back areas of eastern Ukraine that are strongholds of the separatists. The conflict has led to 5,100 deaths, according to the Associated Press. While Gorbachev, the Soviet Union's head of state from 1988 until its dissolution in 1991, warned of war, most academics surveyed in a snap poll released Sunday don’t envision the U.S. and Russia going to war in the next decade. On a scale of zero to 10, with zero meaning no likelihood of going to war and 10 meaning high likelihood, a plurality of scholars -- 23 percent -- rated the chance at 2. Nearly 20 percent rated the chances as a 3, another 20 percent as a 1 and about 12 percent said there was zero chance, according to the poll conducted by the Teaching, Research and International Policy Project at the Institute for the Theory and Practice of International Relations at the College of William & Mary in Virginia. Only .14 percent of scholars rated the chances of war at a 10. A plurality of scholars also disagreed that the U.S. and Russia were heading back toward a new cold war. More than 48 percent, or 273 scholars, said that was the case, while 38 percent said the two countries are heading back toward a cold war and about 13 percent weren’t sure.

No risk of US-Russia War – Most recent studies prove


Shukla, 1-30 – [Vikas Shukla, reporter, value investor, and correspondent with ValueWalk, 1-30-2015, A War Between U.S. And Russia Or China Unlikely, Say Scholars, Value Walk, http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/01/war-us-and-russia-or-china/] Jeong

Yesterday, former Soviet Union leader Mikhail Gorbachev said in an interview with Interfax that the United States was dragging Russia into a new Cold War. Gorbachev warned that it could eventually turn into an armed conflict. Amid escalating tensions over the Ukraine conflict, European Union is considering further sanctions on Russia. On Wednesday, Russia sent two of its nuclear bombers very close to the British airspace, which defense experts say was an act of aggression. Scholars differ from the mainstream public opinion Meanwhile, China is involved in a conflict with most of its neighbors, including Japan, which has a security pact with the United States. If a war breaks out between China and Japan, the U.S. will have to jump in to protect its ally. Rising tensions in these geographies have sparked fears that a war is imminent. But international relations scholars believe that a war is unlikely between the U.S. and Russia or China. Foreign Policy conducted a survey in collaboration with Teaching, Research, and International Policy (TRIP). They interviewed 1,395 international relations scholars across the United States. Findings of the study revealed that the opinion of scholars was dramatically different from the mainstream public opinion. What experts say about a new Cold War with Russia When asked how likely was a war between the U.S. and Russia or China in the next 10 years, they said that war between these powers was unlikely. They added that war between the U.S. and China was far less likely than between the U.S. and Russia. Foreign Policy also surveyed scholars in Russia and East Asia. On a scale of 0 to 10, for all scholars, the average perceived risk of war with China was 1.91. The figure was a little higher at 2.55 for the likeliness of a war with Russia. Then they asked scholars whether the U.S. and Russia were headed back to a Cold War. Less than 38% scholars believed that the two countries were on the verge of a new Cold War. Over 47% said a Cold War was unlikely, while about 15% were uncertain.

No US-Russia War – 7 Reasons


Peck, 14 – [Michael Peck, Contributor on defense and national security for Forbes, 3-5-2014, “7 Reasons Why America Will Never Go To War Over Ukraine”, http://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelpeck/2014/03/05/7-reasons-why-america-will-never-go-to-war-over-ukraine/] Jeong

America is the mightiest military power in the world. And that fact means absolutely nothing for the Ukraine crisis. Regardless of whether Russia continues to occupy the Crimea region of Ukraine, or decides to occupy all of Ukraine, the U.S. is not going to get into a shooting war with Russia. This has nothing to do with whether Obama is strong or weak. Jimmy Carter or Ronald Reagan would face the same constraints. The U.S. may threaten to impose economic sanctions, but here is why America will never smack Russia with a big stick: Russia is a nuclear superpower. Russia has an estimated 4,500 active nuclear warheads, according to the Federation of American Scientists. Unlike North Korea or perhaps Iran, whose nuclear arsenals couldn’t inflict substantial damage, Russia could totally devastate the U.S. as well as the rest of the planet. U.S. missile defenses, assuming they even work, are not designed to stop a massive Russian strike. For the 46 years of the Cold War, America and Russia were deadly rivals. But they never fought. Their proxies fought: Koreans, Vietnamese, Central Americans, Israelis and Arabs. The one time that U.S. and Soviet forces almost went to war was during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Neither Obama nor Putin is crazy enough to want to repeat that. Russia has a powerful army. While the Russian military is a shadow of its Soviet glory days, it is still a formidable force. The Russian army has about 300,000 men and 2,500 tanks (with another 18,000 tanks in storage), according to the “ from the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Its air force has almost 1,400 aircraft, and its navy 171 ships, including 25 in the Black Sea Fleet off Ukraine’s coast. U.S. forces are more capable than Russian forces, which did not perform impressively during the 2008 Russo-Georgia War. American troops would enjoy better training, communications, drones, sensors and possibly better weapons (though the latest Russian fighter jets, such as the T-50, could be trouble for U.S. pilots). However, better is not good enough. The Russian military is not composed of lightly armed insurgents like the Taliban, or a hapless army like the Iraqis in 2003. With advanced weapons like T-80 tanks, supersonic AT-15 Springer anti-tank missiles, BM-30 Smerch multiple rocket launchers and S-400 Growler anti-aircraft missiles, Russian forces pack enough firepower to inflict significant American losses. Ukraine is closer to Russia. The distance between Kiev and Moscow is 500 miles. The distance between Kiev and New York is 5,000 miles. It’s much easier for Russia to send troops and supplies by land than for the U.S. to send them by sea or air. The U.S. military is tired. After nearly 13 years of war, America’s armed forces need a breather. Equipment is worn out from long service in Iraq and Afghanistan, personnel are worn out from repeated deployments overseas, and there are still about 40,000 troops still fighting in Afghanistan. The U.S. doesn’t have many troops to send. The U.S. could easily dispatch air power to Ukraine if its NATO allies allow use of their airbases, and the aircraft carrier George H. W. Bush and its hundred aircraft are patrolling the Mediterranean. But for a ground war to liberate Crimea or defend Ukraine, there is just the 173rd Airborne Brigade in Italy, the 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit sailing off Spain, the 2nd Stryker Cavalry Regiment in Germany and the 82nd Airborne Division at Fort Bragg, North Carolina. While the paratroopers could drop into the combat zone, the Marines would have sail past Russian defenses in the Black Sea, and the Stryker brigade would probably have to travel overland through Poland into Ukraine. Otherwise, bringing in mechanized combat brigades from the U.S. would be logistically difficult, and more important, could take months to organize. The American people are tired. Pity the poor politician who tries to sell the American public on yet another war, especially some complex conflict in a distant Eastern Europe nation. Neville Chamberlain’s words during the 1938 Czechoslovakia crisis come to mind: “How horrible, fantastic, incredible it is that we should be digging trenches and trying on gas-masks here because of a quarrel in a far away country between people of whom we know nothing.” America‘s allies are tired. NATO sent troops to support the American campaign in Afghanistan, and has little to show for it. Britain sent troops to Iraq and Afghanistan, and has little to show for it. It is almost inconceivable to imagine the Western European public marching in the streets to demand the liberation of Crimea, especially considering the region’s sputtering economy, which might be snuffed out should Russia stop exporting natural gas. As for military capabilities, the Europeans couldn’t evict Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi without American help. And Germans fighting Russians again? Let’s not even go there.
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